6/6/2023

speaker
Earl
Chief Financial Officer

recent Fed actions, and the forward yield curve. This forecast is about $6 million above the high end of the previously estimated range. Our tax rate before discrete items is anticipated to be between 29% and 30%. And as mentioned last quarter, we expect to grow full-year adjusted EBITDA at a mid-single-digit rate. Additionally, we are increasing the low end of the range for adjusted EBITDA margin by 10 basis points, and now expect it to be between 6.5 and 6.8% for the full year. We now expect full year 2023 free cash flow to be in the range of $240 million to $270 million. Before the final installment of our CARES Act payment of $66 million, which was made in Q1, and combined integration and elevate costs of approximately $75 to $80 million. This represents a $30 million decrease from our prior forecast, largely driven by expected working capital needs to support growth in our ATS segment in the second half and higher interest expense. With respect to the cadence of quarterly adjusted EPS, we expect approximately 45 to 50% of full-year adjusted earnings per share to be generated in the first half of the fiscal year, consistent with our prior guidance. We anticipate Q3 adjusted EPS will not be a material difference from Q2 2023. With that, let me turn it back to Scott for closing comments.

speaker
Scott Selmers
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Earl. In late 2021, around the time we announced our initial elevate targets, the average U.S. inflation rate for the full year of 2021 was 4.7%. The 10-year T-bill was approximately 1.5%, and the unemployment rate had trended down to 4% from the pandemic high of 15%. Today, the 10-year T-bill rate is over 200 basis points higher. Inflation peaked at 9% in 2022 and is currently close to 5%. And the job market for blue-collar labor is as challenging as it has ever been. Despite these headwinds, we've delivered on our financial goals, expanded our business and service offerings, and achieved important progress towards our 2025 targets. Today, ABM is stronger and better positioned than ever before. Our success reflects our resilient business model, the benefits from our elevated investments, and consistent execution by the ABM team. As we move forward, I'm confident in our ability to build value for our stakeholders as we work tirelessly towards achieving our goals. Underpinned by the strength of our core business, ABM continues to evolve into a higher growth, higher margin facility solution provider. So with that, let's take some questions.

speaker
Conference Call Operator
Moderator

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