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spk07: Good morning. Thank you for attending today's EES first quarter 2022 financial review call. My name is Amber and I will be your moderator for today's call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portion of the call with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad at any time. I now have the pleasure of handing the conference over to our host, Susan Harcourt, Vice President of Investor Relations with AES. Susan, please go ahead.
spk01: Thank you, Operator. Good morning and welcome to our first quarter 2022 financial review call. Our press release, presentation, and related financial information are available on our website at AES.com. Today we will be making forward-looking statements. There are many factors that may cause future results to differ materially from these statements, which are discussed in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures can be found on our website along with the presentation. Joining me this morning are Andres Gluski, our President and Chief Executive Officer, Steve Coughlin, our Chief Financial Officer, and other senior members of our management team. With that, I will turn the call over to Andres.
spk08: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2022 financial review call. I am very happy to report that we have attained an investment grade rating for Moody's. We are now investment grade rated by all three major agencies, which is an important milestone for our company and reflects a decade worth of work to transform our business. We're also reaffirming our 2022 guidance an annualized growth of 7% to 9% through 2025. Our business model continues to demonstrate its resilience and predictability, even in the face of market volatility. Steve will cover our expectations for the remainder of the year in more detail, including the seasonality of our earnings profile. Today, I will discuss... our 2022 construction program and the Department of Commerce's investigation into solar panel imports, the diverse drivers of our growth, including signed renewable energy PPAs and our U.S. utilities, AS Next and Fluence, and our strategic outlook for the sector. Beginning with our 2022 construction program on slide four, we are laser-focused on ensuring timely completion of projects, as we see our ability to execute on our commitments as a key source of competitive advantage. This year, we expect to complete more than two gigawatts of new renewables, including over 800 megawatts of solar in the U.S. In late March, the U.S. Department of Commerce launched an investigation into solar imports from four Southeast Asian countries. which collectively supply approximately 80 percent of solar panels for the US market. The Department of Commerce is expected to make a preliminary determination on this case by no later than August. The resulting uncertainty around tariff levels has led to a drop in imports and project delays across the industry. However, due to our supply chain strategy, all of the panels for our 830 megawatts of projects to be completed in 2022 in the U.S. are already in country, and we do not anticipate any delays to those projects. I'd also note that one-third of our 2022 renewable projects are international, and the remaining 683 megawatts in the U.S. are wind and energy storage. Moving to the diverse drivers of future growth, beginning on slide five. Our strategy is to provide differentiated products that allow us to work with our customers on a bilateral basis. As a result, last year we signed a total of 5 gigawatts of PPAs for renewable energy, including more contracts with CNI customers than anyone else in the world. For full year 2022, we continue to expect to sign 4.5 to 5.5 gigawatts of renewables under long-term contracts, with a roughly 50-50 split between the U.S. and international markets. We do expect PPA signings in the U.S. to be more weighted towards the second half of the year. So far this year, we have signed or been awarded 1.1 gigawatts, bringing our backlog to 10.3 gigawatts. Despite current headwinds for the sector, such as delays in U.S. climate legislation and the supply chain issues we just discussed, We continue to see very strong demand for low carbon energy and especially for structured products such as our 24-7 renewable offering. In fact, as you may have seen earlier this week, we announced two key agreements for our structured products. First, the expansion of our partnership with Microsoft into California. The third market where we will supply renewable energy to match the load at their data centers. And second, our agreement with Amazon. under which we will provide 675 megawatts of renewable energy to their operations in California, including AWS's data centers. With these agreements, we are helping both companies achieve their ambitious sustainability goals. As you can see on slide six, we believe our development pipeline of 59 gigawatts is the second largest among U.S. renewables developers. This robust pipeline provides us with the projects we need to deliver on our backlog and continue to build on our competitive position in the market. Now turning to our regulated U.S. utility platforms, beginning on Flight 7. These businesses represent one of the key contributors to our overall 7% to 9% annual growth in earnings and cash flow, as well as advancing our objective of increasing the proportion of earnings from the U.S. to 50%. In both markets, we have the lowest residential rates in the entire state, which provides a runaway for growth and investment while keeping affordable rates for our customers. Moving to slide eight, in Indiana, we're benefiting from incentives to modernize the transmission and distribution network and transitioning to greener generation. Through 2025, we will be investing $2.7 billion, which we will recover through already approved rate mechanisms. Additionally, we expect to finalize our next integrated resource plan by this fall, allowing us to further transform AS Indiana's generation fuel mix. In Ohio, we're capitalizing on FERC formula rate-based investments in the transmission network. At the same time, we are implementing our smart grid investment program, which is recovered through an existing rate mechanism. We also have a distribution rate case pending before the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. Later this month, we will be presenting oral arguments directly to the Commission, and a favorable outcome in this case will bolster our ability to make the new investments needed to further strengthen AES-Ohio's network. Turning to slide 9, through 2025, we expect to invest $4 billion to modernize our U.S. utilities. These investments translate to average annual rate-based growth of 9% through 2025, which is at the high end of growth projections for U.S. utilities. We expect the earnings from these core businesses to grow in line with the rate base. Turning to slide 10 for an update on AES Next, we are developing and incubating new products and business platforms through AES Next. Our investments in AES Next help our businesses to be more innovative and competitive and drive value for our customers and shareholders. We are proud that earlier this year, Fast Company, named AES, is one of the 10 most innovative energy companies in the world and the only large publicly traded company to be included on that list. Turning to slide 11, the most mature initiative under AES Next today is Fluence. which as of December 31st had 4.2 gigawatts of energy storage products deployed and contracted and assigned backlog of 1.9 billion. Additionally, Fluence's digital platform, Fluence IQ, recently acquired Nespera and now has a combined 15 gigawatts contracted or under management, of which more than 80% is with third-party customers. Over the past several months, Fluence has been dealing with short-term challenges, mostly stemming from COVID-19-related supply chain issues. Their management team has taken proactive steps to address these challenges, including diversifying battery suppliers, signing new shipping agreements, building out their in-house supply chain team, and regionalizing their manufacturing. Overall, demand for energy storage remains very robust, and Fluence is well capitalized and positioned to grow as market leader. We see a pathway for them to improve their margins and grow as the global energy transition continues to progress. Finally, turning to our strategic outlook for the sector, beginning on slide 12. Our goal is to be the leader in providing low carbon energy solutions while delivering annualized earnings and cash flow growth of 7% to 9% through 2025. Today, there's an unprecedented transformation of our sector underway, with governments, utilities, and companies working to shift to low-carbon sources of power. For example, just looking at the public commitment of the RE100, a group of over 350 large corporations who have committed to 100% renewable energy, we expect their annual demand to more than double to almost 400 terawatt hours of renewable energy by 2030. Facing this immense opportunity, we are taking steps to ensure our continued competitive advantage in this once-in-a-generation transformation of our sector. As you can see on slide 13, this transformation is reflected in our own portfolio as we expect renewables to represent more than three-quarters of our installed capacity by the end of 2025. During that same time period, we expect our renewables business to nearly triple from 13 gigawatts to approximately 38 gigawatts and our capacity from coal to go from seven gigawatts to zero. With that, I will now turn the call over to our CFO, Steve Kauflin.
spk13: Thank you, Andres, and good morning, everyone. Today I will discuss our first quarter results, 2022 parent capital allocation and 2022 guidance. Beginning on slide 15, As Andres highlighted, I'm very pleased to share that Moody's recently completed a thorough review of our consolidated debt and cash flow across our businesses and upgraded AES to investment grade. This conclusion further validates our years-long effort to reduce risk and strengthen our balance sheet and will yield further benefits as we grow our business and attract new investors to AES. As an investment-grade rated company, we will continue to lead the renewable sector while growing our U.S. utility asset base and our long-term contracted generation portfolio. Turning to slide 16, and the resiliency of our business model. Today, 85% of our adjusted PPC is from long-term contracted generation and utilities. We are largely insulated from the current macroeconomic volatility affecting commodity prices, inflation, interest rates, and foreign currencies, with the vast majority of our portfolio benefiting from contractual indexation, fuel pass-through, or hedging programs that limit our exposure. Combined, these macroeconomic factors had an impact of less than 2 million on our adjusted PTC in the first quarter. For the full year, We currently expect a net positive contribution from these macroeconomic factors as a result of higher natural gas prices and higher power prices in some of our markets. Now turning to our financial results for the quarter, beginning on slide 17. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was 21 cents versus 28 cents last year. Our core business segments grew by 4 cents over the first quarter of 2021. These positive contributions were offset by several negative drivers we had already anticipated in our 2022 guidance. First, higher losses at AES Next, primarily resulting from COVID-related supply chain issues at Fluence in the fourth quarter of 2021. As a reminder, we report Fluence's results on a one-quarter lag, so the Fluence results relate to their December quarter end which was disclosed in February and included in AAS's full-year guidance on our last call. Second, the higher share count as a result of the accounting adjustment we made for our equity units. Third, a higher quarterly effective tax rate than our overall expectation for the full year due to timing. And finally, non-recurring gains on interest rate hedges recorded last year, which skew the quarter over prior year quarter comparisons. Turning to slide 18, adjusted pre-tax contribution, or PTC, was $207 million for the quarter, which was $40 million lower than 2021, consistent with the drivers I just discussed. I'll cover the performance of our strategic business units, or SBUs, in more detail over the next four slides. In the U.S. and utility strategic business unit, or SBU, higher PTC was driven primarily by earnings from new renewables coming online, and higher contributions from Southland, partially offset by higher spend at AES Clean Energy due to an accelerated growth plan. Higher PTC at our South America SBU was mostly driven by our increased ownership of AES Andes and higher contracted revenue in Columbia. Lower PTC at our Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, or MCAC SBU, primarily reflects the sale of Etabo in the Dominican Republic in 2021 and lower availability at our generation facilities in Mexico. Finally, in Eurasia, higher PTC reflects higher revenue at our Mong Dong facility in Vietnam and higher power prices at our wind plant in Bulgaria, driven by commodity price increases. Now to slide 23. we are on track to achieve our full year 2022 adjusted EPS guidance range of $1.55 to $1.65. Our typical quarterly earnings profile is more heavily weighted toward Q3 and Q4, with about two-thirds of our earnings occurring in the second half of the year. We continue to expect a similar profile this year as we grow more in the U.S., where earnings are higher in the second half of the year based on solar generation profiles utility demand seasonality, and the commissioning of more new projects in the third and fourth quarters. Growth in the year to go will be primarily driven by contributions from new businesses, including over two gigawatts of projects in our backlog coming online over the next nine months, as well as further accretion from our increased ownership of AES Andes. We are also reaffirming our expected 7% to 9% average annual growth target through 2025, based on our expected growth in renewables and U.S. utilities, as well as the recycling of our capital into additional investment opportunities we see across our global portfolio. Now to our 2022 parent capital allocation plan on slide 24. Sources reflect approximately $1.4 to $1.7 billion of total discretionary cash, including $900 million of parent free cash flow and $500 to $700 million of proceeds from asset sales. On the right-hand side, you can see our planned use of capital. We will return nearly $500 million to shareholders this year. This consists of our common share dividend, including the 5% increase we announced in December, and the coupon on the equity units. We plan to invest approximately 900 million to 1.1 billion in our subsidiaries as we capitalize on attractive opportunities for growth. Nearly half of these investments are in renewables, reflecting our success in securing long-term contracts during 2021 and our expectations for 2022. About 25% of these investments are in our US utilities to fund rate-based growth with a continued focus on grid and fleet modernization. In summary, close to three-quarters of our investments this year are going to renewables growth in our US utilities businesses, helping us to achieve our goal of increasing the proportion of earnings from the US to more than half by 2023. In fact, we have made great progress on our growth investments so far this year, with approximately $650 million already invested primarily in renewables and to increase our ownership in AES Andes. We will continue to allocate our capital in line with our strategy to lead the renewable sector, further anchor AES in the U.S. market, and to decarbonize our portfolio. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Andres.
spk08: Thank you, Steve. in summary our core business continues to perform well we have attained investment grade ratings from all three major agencies we are reaffirming our 2022 guidance and annualized growth through 2025 we continue to deliver on our commitments including our 2022 construction projects which we expect to commission on time even with the ongoing department of commerce investigation into solar panel imports We are energized by the immense opportunity for growth in our business and remain committed to maintaining our competitive advantage. With that, I would like to open up the call for questions.
spk07: Of course. Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad. If for any reason you would like to remove that question, please press star followed by 2. Again, to ask a question, that's star 1. As a reminder, if you are using a speakerphone, please remember to pick up your handset before asking your question. We will pause here briefly as questions are registered. Our first question comes from Insoo Kim with Goldman Sachs. Insoo, your line is now open.
spk02: yeah thank you first question on the solar the u.s solar investigation you know good to see that the 22 projects are on time and on schedule just for 2023 exposure could you give a little bit more clarity on the amount of capacity that maybe has been contracted and need to be delivered and you know, what type of timing delays, if any, that we could expect for next year. And then just relate it to that, you know, if there are delays to that that were embedded in your growth for 23, you know, how much flexibility do you have to move around other items to still hit your growth?
spk08: Okay. Well, good morning, Insu. Let me start with a little background on the Commerce case. So this case is an investigation by Commerce into allegations of one U.S. manufacturer, that panels and cells imported from poor countries in Southeast Asia are circumventing existing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on solar panels and cells coming from China. So we think there are strong legal grounds for commerce to make a preliminary determination before August that will signal to the market that the allegations are unfounded and will be conclusively dismissed without new tariffs. One of the legal requirements for determining that circumvention occurred
spk00: However, the solar panel and cell suppliers operating in these countries have invested billions of dollars in technologically sophisticated manufacturing, assembly, and processing facilities so that their activities do not appear to be minor or insignificant.
spk08: Additionally, the critical step of creating solar cells occurs in these countries and not in China, and involves the conversion of the wafer into a cell. Commerce itself has previously ruled that this step determines the country of origin for solar imports. For these reasons, we think that there are strong grounds for commerce to make an expedited determination. It's also important to note that there's broad industry opposition to this investigation. including from many U.S. manufacturers, because they rely on solar cells from Southeast Asia in order to manufacture solar modules here in the U.S. Currently, the U.S. manufacturing industry can only meet about 20% of U.S. demand, and their capacity to increase supply is negatively impacted by this investigation. This further supports a decision by Commerce to dismiss the circumvention claim underground that a finding of circumvention would not be appropriate due to its harmful impacts. So we'll continue to advocate for a, you know, rapid resolution of this case. Now, getting specifically to your question, I think, you know, what we were able to do this year shows to our supply chain management strategies. And many of you will recall that for three years I've been arguing that this huge wave of renewable demand was coming and that there were going to be shortages of everything, from developers to land to interconnections. And now we've had, I'd say, an additional issue with this case before commerce for solar panels. So we've been out ahead of this. Now, what will determine what will happen in 2023? to us, and again, I think we're in the best shape of anybody in the industry, will be if there's an early resolution or if there is a determination. Let's take the worst case. It comes out and they say that there is a convention and there's going to be a tariff of X. Okay, well, then people can put cash deposits at that point. Now, I think this would have a very deleterious effect for the whole solar industry in the U.S., I think we would be in better shape because we're primarily selling to corporates who have more flexibility than people, you know, say utilities with RFPs who are much more regulated. So given that, I'd say, look, right now we don't know. I mean, worst case, we continue to negotiate with our clients. We're advancing. You know, we're not signing them yet because we're waiting for this final determination. But, you know, this is not going to stop us. And in terms of the construction, it depends how the case comes and the sort of shipping backlogs and the rest. It could potentially affect the second half of 23, but we'll have to see. So we're doing everything possible to minimize this. And I think the proof of the pudding is in the eating. I think we're one of the few solar U.S. developers who did not have to postpone or cancel any projects this year.
spk02: That's a good color. And maybe just the second part of my question was just if maybe the, not the worst case, but a non-constructive case comes out and the delays are more significant for the whole industry, just, you know, your portfolio of global projects, whether it's wind or storage or whatnot, you know, art preservers, you know, how much flexibility do you have to pull different levers to still, you know, achieve that growth?
spk08: Well, you know, that's a great point. If you think of our backlog of 10.3 gigawatts, only about a third is U.S. solar. So the rest is either international or wind or other technology. So, again, I think that what will happen, well, you know, we are a diverse portfolio, and so, you know, we will try to make it up elsewhere. But, again, we think that there are very strong grounds to dismiss this case, honestly. It doesn't make sense. A lot of legal sense, honestly. A prior similar case was dismissed because they didn't have, let's say, nobody was standing up in front of it. Now you have one small U.S. manufacturer. And, you know, I think the grounds of this being insignificant or, you know, not material, the value added in Southeast Asian countries is almost lappable, quite frankly. So it is just rent-seeking, I think, from a few small U.S. players. What is dramatic is that it's had such an effect on the industry. Now, again, fortunately, we've been very concerned about shortages for three years, and you'll also recall that even when COVID first appeared in February of 2020, we talked about its potential effects on supply chain. So, again, stay tuned. I don't think there's anybody in better shape than us, and as you point out,
spk02: uh you know we are a diverse in terms of technologies and also in terms of geographies okay that makes sense uh my second question quickly um you know the slide 43 uh the the sensitivity slide to you know different uh moving commodities or currencies or whatnot you know it's always helpful to us just the updates there you know i think with You know, stuff like Henry Hub gas prices being, you know, almost $8 to $9 right now. Just looking at your sensitivity of the year-to-go assumptions. you know, if these commodity prices do remain elevated and with no other changes, it seems like there could be a more meaningful EPS impact for 2022. But, you know, that assumes no other changes, whether it's power prices or whatnot. Can you just walk through at this point with the various commodity price or power price environment, how you see that net impact for the balance of the year, you know, as it stands today? Thanks.
spk13: Yeah, hey, Intu, it's Steve. So just as a reminder, that page, the sensitivities are in isolation. So when you see the gas price sensitivity, it's not, doesn't include in a corresponding power price increase, which we would actually expect to happen in most cases. So on balance, you know, the environment, we're really on the net positive side, as I said in my comments. You know, in particular, in Bulgaria, we have our wind portfolio there, which has done very well, and I expect will do very well for the rest of this year. It does have some market exposure. And with our prices in excess of 200, it's done very well. And then the other thing I would point to is our LNG business in MCAC. You know, we have long-term contracted gas that's been contracted for some time. So, in fact, there are some upsides that we're working, have worked through, and will continue to work through to take advantage of some of the high gas price opportunities to, you know, benefit our LNG business. So I think, you know, there's upside there as well. Southland has been, you know, another upside. success. We expect more success this year was five cents of energy margin upside last year. So, you know, on balance, we're actually in quite good shape. Most of our contracts are in inflation indexed around the world. I think it's like 83 percent. Those that are not are really U.S. renewable contracts where we've locked in our costs up front. And that was baked into the overall cost of the pricing in the PPA. So really, you know, AES has transformed a lot, and actually we're in quite good shape in this environment.
spk08: I would say, Andrew, we're on the right side of history on this one, because where we have fuel, it's mostly a pass-through, and we're mostly competing with fossil fuels with either hydro, with renewables. And I would say the biggest winner of what's happened is really Bulgaria. Because in Bulgaria, we've just signed an MOU with the government of Bulgaria, where they recognize the validity of the PPA. And they also, you know, we're working together on decarbonizing the Maritsa project, whether it be, you know, we're looking at different alternatives, whether it be carbon capture and sequestration, biofuels, or conversion to gas. And at the same time, stepping up investments in energy storage. So, again, I really can't think of any case where this is impacting us negatively.
spk02: Good call. Thank you so much, guys.
spk07: Thank you. Our next question comes from Richard Sunderland with J.P. Morgan. Richard, your line is now open.
spk10: Hi, good morning and thank you for the time today. Maybe just wanted to touch on the 2023 solar outlook a little bit more. Could you speak to a little bit more around the risks there beyond just the earnings delays? Is it really just so much as the timing of the earnings come in? Are there any contractual obligations around energy procurement or elsewhere that you need to fulfill with those contracts?
spk08: yes no i'm not aware of any quite frankly i think that in the you know very worst case i don't think it would be um demand destruction it would be a delay in some cases of commissioning them but no we would obviously have um our contracts would not hold those uh to to having to supply energy if if there is a major disruption in the solar panel uh market but you know again we think that's the Not the most likely scenario, but if it were to occur, we wouldn't be suffering LDs because of not fulfilling contracts.
spk10: Got it. Very helpful. And then thinking about the announcements around these recent structured deals, could you speak to a little bit of the capacity you have for more of those and the overall appetite there? And then I guess just to be clear on the Amazon front, are those new projects or reflected in the 2021 signings?
spk08: Yeah. First, you know, most of these are reflected in 2021 projects. But what I would say is we're seeing a tremendous demand for our structured project. And we have been talking about this. You know, we weren't able to release some of the names prior to that until the client was ready. But, you know, we could do more projects. I think the real issue is to have the projects in the right market ready. So it's, you know, stay tuned. More is coming. But I think what we like very much is this shows, like, repeat buying. So with Microsoft, for example, we've done projects in PJM. We did a project in Chile. And now we did a project in California. And so we expect the other to happen with the other big clients. So, you know, if you think of the large data center clients, You know, we have big contracts for three of them, and we're in a very good position. So, really, the demand is there. It's a question of, you know, how fast we can bring the projects online.
spk13: And I would just add, you know, and these customers, as Andre said, Richard, you know, we have the flexibility to pivot to some other markets. You've done Microsoft, done Google in Chile, you know, and so the Amazon announcement, what we've been able to announce. This is something I've wanted to talk about for some time, but there's more to come. We've built a pipeline significantly. We're up to 59, almost 60 gigawatt pipeline, and that's in large part because we're playing forward the demand coming from our commercial industrial customers in aggregating pipeline where we know that they're going to need us to supply their load.
spk08: I think an important point about Good part of this pipeline is in California, and it's quite ready. And that, you know, we started acquiring land and interconnection rights about three years ago. We really got a little bit ahead of this wave that we see now. So the demand is there. It's a question of bringing all the projects online. Now, realize that these are, you know, versions of 24-7 or, you know, round-the-clock renewables. So, you know, it's not only a question of having the – availability to build new megawatts, it's also can you combine them, you know, and have the energy storage to really provide that round-the-clock guaranteed netted on an hourly basis renewable energy.
spk10: That's very helpful, Collin. I just wanted to follow up real quick on that sort of contracting backdrop. You talked a little bit about more of a 2H waiting for the U.S. signings, obviously the DOC, you know, overshadowing all of this. So can you give just a little bit more color on what you're seeing in terms of discussions, I guess, are active, but you just need that, say, that August data point to then start finalizing contracts? Just any more information would be helpful there.
spk08: Yes, what I'd feel comfortable saying is you're right, you characterized this right, that we are in discussions, and there are more contracts, you know, with many clients, and that I'd say it factors having some clarity in August what it would be, because you'd have to make cash deposits in negotiating this. As I said, our corporate clients, which are the bulk of what we're doing in the States, have greater flexibility and speed than, say, regulated clients. So let's see what happens. But, again, I think it – You know, it would just really be nefarious for the whole sector, for the whole U.S. drive to a more carbon-free electric sector. This would slow us down. And, you know, it would basically make renewables in the U.S. more expensive. So if you want to onshore manufacturing, what do you need? You need cheap and clean energy is a vital factor. The thing that's happening here, again, is really just slowing it down, creating uncertainty. And, again, we're in the best shape, I think, of anybody in the sector. So, you know, its effects will be much greater outside of AES.
spk13: Yeah. And I would just add, you know, last year 80% of the contracts were done in, you know, bilateral commercial industrial PPAs, so bilateral negotiations. So we, you know, the customers that we're working with are very much aware of this issue. We're moving forward with all the details that we can move forward on, and this piece is open, and it's very frustrating, and it's not a good thing. But, you know, these are customers that have made very strong and vocal commitments to their decarbonization, and we suspect they're going to want to continue to find a path to get there. And, you know, since we're in a bilateral relationship, I think, you know, we're going to work through that.
spk08: And we're all in favor of onshoring. But what you need is certainty, and you need a timeline. So you need to know what tariffs will be applied in what way. But you also have to say how far down the supply chain they're going to go. And the further down the supply chain you're going to go, the more time you need to move the supply chain. And so, for example, right now, most of the – most of the solar panels we're buying from Southeast Asia, actually the polysilicon is going to be coming from Germany. So it's not even coming from China. So this is basically rent-seeking by a small number of, actually one firm in this case, an insignificant firm, I may add. I don't think it's delivering 1% of the supply in the U.S. So it really is quite egregious, the whole situation.
spk10: Got it. Really helpful color there. Thank you.
spk07: Thank you, Richard. Our next question comes from Durgis Chorpa with Evercore. Durgis, please proceed.
spk09: Hey, good morning, team. Thank you for taking my question. Hey, Steve, maybe this one is in your house. Sorry, can you hear me okay?
spk13: Yeah, go ahead.
spk09: Oh, okay. Sorry. I just heard some background there maybe. I was just going to ask you, as it relates to the 2022 EPS guidance, Steve, can you remind us what are you modeling for Fluence embedded in that guidance? And then, you know, obviously, you know, Fluence has had some challenges with COVID-19, as Andres articulated in his prepared remarks. If that continues throughout the year, what kind of flexibility do you have to kind of make that up in other areas of the business?
spk13: Yeah, so, hey, thanks for the question. Look, so Fluent had a difficult their first quarter, which, as I had in my remarks, for their fiscal 22, their fiscal year runs October to September. And we report them on a one-quarter lag. So what they reported in December is just hitting this quarter that we're now reporting. So we already had anticipated and updated forecasts for Fluence when we gave our guidance, and that's largely, you know, that's about what I can say on it. Unfortunately, Fluence, you know, I can't say much more. My hands are a bit tied here. They're a public company. They'll be releasing earnings next week. But what I can say is I feel very comfortable, given that I have the latest expectations for Fluence in our numbers. We've already absorbed their first quarter, and we reported that here. So, look, they've had a lot of issues that they've talked about. I think they're working through those. Some of them are quite temporary in nature, and they've already worked through both shiny new shipping contracts, diversifying their battery supply. They're regionalizing their manufacturing around the world. So I think it's going to take some time, as they've said, to work through some of these challenges. But we're very confident. The long term is strong. The entire market has continued to be very strong. The demand is still there. I think they've had kind of the perfect storm of some issues coming together here with supply chain batteries, shipping, et cetera. But, you know, in our guidance, we have the latest forecast, and it's not knocking us off our guidance range.
spk08: What I would add is that the company is well capitalized. We see strong demand. And what you're seeing is increase in battery supply outside of China. So you just saw the announcement by the U.S. government that they would have incentives for battery manufacturing in the U.S., Poland has an agreement with Northvolt for production of batteries in Poland. So I think what you're going to see is the main constraint, which has been access to batteries, will start to be addressed. Now, it's not going to be immediate, but by next year you start seeing more capacity come online.
spk09: Got it. That's very comprehensive. Thank you, guys. In terms of just, you know, going back to the backlog of additions, right, I mean, you start the year strong, you know, roughly over a gig versus the, you know, 4.5 to 5.5 gig target. Sounds like, you know, you're confident you're going to hit that in 2022. But as we think about 2023, in light of the solar investigation, in light of the commentary, you know, around, you know, potential delays, Do you go back, like, I mean, what's, so the current plan, I think the long-term, the 79% EPS code is predicated on, correct me if I'm wrong, three to four gigawatts a year. Is that sort of, do you expect to sort of hit that in 2023, maybe the low end, or what's the thinking there as we think about 2023 additions?
spk08: So you're talking about signing new PPAs, or you're talking about commissioning of projects?
spk09: The new PPAs, Andres, the targets.
spk08: Okay, look, in the first quarter we did 1.1 gigawatts, so we are on target for our 4.5 to 5.5 gigawatts for the year. As I mentioned, due to this commerce case, some of the signing of PPAs in solar in the U.S. will be more heavily weighted towards the second half of the year because people will wait until this resolution and come to a conclusion. Do I think that this will... you know, knock us off our growth trajectory? No. The answer is no. And because I, if anything, it might, you know, move things around from one quarter to the next. But we're seeing very strong demand for our products. And, you know, this will, you know, the RE100, for example, they're not going to abandon their sustainability goals. So they're going to go forward with this. So I think that, you know, I feel confident of it. You know, can it cause some delays in signing a PPA? Yes, we're saying that. But, you know, I think that we'll have a catch up. So, you know, it might make things a little bit lumpier than they would be otherwise, which is not ideal. But, you know, that's the hand we've been dealt.
spk09: Understood. Sounds like, you know, the long-term trajectory intact, you may have some lumpiness in the near term. But you feel confident, you know, long-term in hitting all of your targets?
spk08: Exactly. Exactly.
spk09: All right. Thank you, guys. Appreciate the time.
spk08: Thank you. Thank you.
spk07: Thank you, Judith. Our next question comes from Julian Duvalin-Smith with Think of America. Julian, your line is now open.
spk11: Hey, good morning, team. Can you hear me? Okay. Yes, we can hear you loud and clear. Excellent. Thank you. Appreciate it. So, guys, I want to try to quantify things a little bit more if we can. You know, obviously we talked about these commodity sensitivities a little bit earlier. Can we talk about the longer-dated commodity sensitivities and try to quantify it based on what's implied in your slide? I mean, it looks as if, you know, again, these commodities are flying around, but it could be north of 10 cents positive versus what you guys did with your last guidance. I mean, is that directionally correct? I mean, can you try to quantify that a little bit and affirm it? And then related to the extent to which that is indeed true directionally, what does that mean in terms of your appetite to potentially expedite the exit from Bulgaria, for instance? I just want to try to get at that a little bit more and or absorb some of these other impacts, you know, be it solar or fluid, and still be within your range or higher within your range. Sure.
spk13: Sure. Julian, so you're right. I mean, and you're looking through the page on the commodities and seeing that there's actually upside here, as I described. So, you know, Bulgaria, where the power prices are high, we're really seeing significant upside there, both in the near term as well as in the value of the Maritsa plant, which is under contract. But, you know, that PPA is well in the money for the government of the people of Bulgaria. Plus, we have the upside of the wind plant. In our LNG business, you know, in our gas businesses in Central America and the Caribbean, we have long-term gas contracts that, you know, have been set, you know, well before this commodities environment. So we have some flexibility in how we manage our cargos. We have customers with plants that have dual fuel capability. And so we're able to, you know, perhaps, you know, work on swapping to liquid fuels and redirecting cargoes into Europe, for example, with our partners. So, you know, this is a really important part of our portfolio, one that we, you know, don't tend to talk a lot about, but it is in this environment important diversification of our portfolio. So we see both with power prices as well as the upside in our position in natural gas, given our long-term contracts, that, yes, directionally, you are correct. I wouldn't, you know, venture to say whether it's $0.10 or, you know, exactly at this point. And some of that relies on discrete transactions that we will do and have done and will do to take advantage of that upside analogy.
spk08: And talking about Bulgaria, what I would say is, look... In the past, the PPA had been questioned before the sort of anti-competitive or say illegal state aid really was the case before the European Commission. So what we're seeing is that to some extent we're getting past that. This is a confirmation of the PPA. So it's a very attractive asset. Moritz is a very attractive asset through the end of its contract period. And beyond. It's actually doing what it... The reason it was built was to make Bulgaria independent of Russian gas. That's why it was built. And it uses local coal, so it's not affected by international prices. So it's very much in the money for our client. So, you know, the asset is much more valuable today than it was, say, six months ago. And, you know, we've also agreed to help the Bulgarian government look at energy storage and other alternatives to... wean Maritsa away from just running on coal. So, you know, stay tuned to that. But I'd say this has been the big winner from this horrible situation in Europe.
spk11: Got it. Fair enough. And then I just want to try to quantify versus some of the qualitative comments earlier around the 80 CBD risk on 23. I just, again, it sounds as if specifically you're reaffirming the origination ranges going into next year, your confidence is there. Is there any, I mean, when you try to quantify any of these risks, any way to do so around solar here, just any quantum of origination risk, any, any quantum of impact and higher costs, et cetera. I just want to make sure we're crystal clear on this all.
spk08: Yeah. Look, what I would say is the following. Look, we continue to negotiate with our clients. This has pushed off the final signing of a number of additional PPAs because there's uncertainty about, you know, this tariff. So that's sort of the remaining item to complete these PPAs. Now, its effect will depend on, you know, will August provide enough clarity? And it should. You should have an indication of how much the tariff would be, how much you would have to put in sort of cash deposits, even though it might be finalized later. But typically those move up and down, you know, not that drastically. So we think we could work with that. However, I mean, the issue to me, the biggest issue is whether the – you know, the suppliers continue to run these factories in Southeast Asia? You know, do you have a decrease in global supply of solar panels? So that's a little bit more of the issue. So there are a lot of things there, but rest assured that we're doing everything possible and using our sort of global footprint to try to, you know, be able to give certainty to some of the suppliers that they will be able to continue to be running. So stay tuned, but... You know, we hope that by August, or actually sooner, because the case is so weak, it should be dismissed, and it's amazing that it's gotten this far. But, you know, there should be some clarity or has to be some clarity by August, and then we'll let you know, and we'll continue to work with all the suppliers to ensure that we get those panels to the states on time to complete 2023 projects.
spk11: Got it. All right. Fair enough. And then just the last one to cover this. Fluence, obviously, it's a trailing impact, et cetera. The lockup expired of late. It seems it's still strategic to you from an origination perspective in your sales efforts, right, regardless of the results.
spk08: Yeah, I'm optimistic about Fluence in the long run, or let's say medium term, because These, you know, it's very difficult to launch a new product when you get hit by COVID shutdowns in China. Some of the battery suppliers had issues, let's face it, and that caused a shortage in the market as well. So, you know, there were tremendous shipping issues that they had to face. But look, it's a well-capitalized firm. The product is good. digital is expanding well. They'll talk about these things. And for us, you know, it has helped us, you know, really create a market for energy storage, you know, solar plus energy storage. Our 24-7 relies on energy storage. If a version of the climate plus bill gets passed and there's clarity around green hydrogen, that will require a lot of energy storage. So, yeah, it is a a strategic relationship. And, you know, we hope to grow together for years to come. Awesome. All right. Thank you, guys. Good luck. Thank you, Julian. Thanks, Julian.
spk07: Thank you, Julian. Our next question comes from Auntie Storzinski with Seaport. Auntie, your line is now open.
spk06: Thank you. So my first question is about the timeline of your co-planned retirements. We seem to be in this new gas price environment basically everywhere in the world. We haven't yet heard many companies change the timeline, but there is money to be made on continued operations of some of these assets. So that's one. And then the second question, a little bit more longer dated, I guess, is that so far, when you see the reasons why C&I customers signed renewable power PPAs, They mention decarbonization as the main driver. We haven't yet heard much about economic renewables, and it's probably the inflation and equipment prices doesn't help. But are you expecting this second wave of demand from CNI customers as we are in this higher power price environment probably for years to come?
spk08: Yeah, those are great questions. Look, First, on the first one, we have to reach our goal by 2025. So it's a question of trying to sell these assets or shut them down at times that are most appropriate. So the shutdowns, it's talking a lot with the local system operator or the Ministry of Energy. So those I don't see being affected by what's happening now. On some of the sales, you're right. if many of these plants are more valuable uh in certain locations again maritza being the prime example and some of these shutdowns may be um maybe somewhat delayed because they must run in terms of availability of natural gas but it doesn't change our goal of getting rid of all coal plants by 2025. the second question is i'm really glad you asked it because the companies are committed to their de-carbonization goals. They're not just going to abandon them because of the case before commerce or because of slightly higher prices of, let's say, everything from wind turbines to solar panels to batteries due to what's happening on the mineral side, commodity side. But what people aren't talking about is that the increase in cost of renewables is much, much less than the increase in the price of fossil fuels. You know, all of them, whether it be coal, gas, or diesel. So actually, renewables are more competitive today than ever. And in almost all cases, I can say that the energy from renewables is the cheapest energy. It's just a matter of degree. You know, how much cheaper is it? Even with the increase in the cost of construction. So I'd say that the... you know, main issue is not energy, it's capacity. You know, how to keep the lights on 24-7. And you really have two choices. One is to continue to run your, you know, legacy assets, whether they be gas or coal, and combine it with renewables. That's what we did in Chile, the sort of Green Tegra, or Green Blend and Extend, or energy storage. And as people go, let's say, further on this journey of decarbonization, That's why there's going to be such strong demand for energy storage, lithium-ion-based energy storage. So really, to me, it's a question of supply. Can you get enough batteries to meet this? And the more batteries that become available, then you'll be able to retire fossil plants sooner. So that's, I'd say, the main thing. So you're right. But on the cost equation, renewables are more competitive than ever, than before this crisis.
spk06: Yeah, because it is pretty amazing to see that, you know, large commercial investor customers are comfortable locking in, for example, in PJM power prices as high as $50 in 2026, 2027, when they could purchase renewables for, like, you know, $45, $46. I mean, that is just one thing that I don't fully grasp, and I'm hopeful that that just means that there's more growth to come for you guys.
spk08: There is going to be more growth. I mean, maybe in some of these cases, it's just that, you know, do they have confidence that the projects are there? You know, because it's, can you deliver those projects? And in the sector, there have been a lot of projects delayed or canceled, not by us, due to different kinds of supply shortages. So, you know, that might be it. It might be that they're going for certainty. So what we feel differentiates us and we're very conscious of is that we have been delivering on our projects.
spk07: Very good. Thank you.
spk08: Thank you.
spk07: Thank you, Angie. Our next question comes from Greg Orle with UBS. Greg, your line is now open.
spk12: Yes, thank you. I was wondering if you could comment on what got Moody's to investment grade, anything you wanted to highlight there?
spk08: Look, this has been a – I'll pass this over to Steve because he did most of the work. But what I would just add, this has been a decade. So if you look at any of our statistics, you know, in terms of our exposure to commodities, if you look at the fact that we're almost, what, 88%, I think, in dollars, 85%. contracted or U.S. utilities, if you look at the fact that we are, I guess, almost 90% hedged, I mean, all the indicators are very strong. So, you know, our cash flow has been really strong for a long time, but this company is just so fundamentally different from where it was even five years ago. But I'll pass it off to Steve.
spk13: Thanks, Andres. And thanks for the question, Craig. I was hoping someone would bring it up because we're very proud of Moody's achievement. So, Look, this is the third of three, and so it really fully solidifies our investment grade status as AES, something that the team set out to do a long time ago. I can't – you know, I've only been in my job for six months, so I can't really claim too much credit for it. You know, so it really goes to Ahmed, John, and the team. And so, look, you know, Moody's takes a different approach where they're looking at our consolidated – debt, including all the non-recourse debt and all the cash flow from our businesses, our subs. So they really did a very deep review. And, you know, they looked at also the overall risk profile of our businesses. So, you know, our commercial structure, our long-term contracts, dollar-denominated, you know, our growth in our utilities. And so it's been a combination of the strengthening of the balance sheet, the increases in our cash flow, and that business mix. So, you know, and we've actually been in Moody's territory for four quarters straight, well into Moody's territory. So, you know, this was becoming really, really obvious that it was something that AES deserved, and we're very proud of it. And look, you know, we felt really good about our transformation, and I think this is just another validation point of that transformation. As I said, they did a really thorough review.
spk08: Yeah, and I would highlight what Steve said, that Moody's methodology is different. So it takes into account not only the non-recourse debt, but the recourse debt. So in our case, it's about, I guess, $3.5 billion of recourse. Yeah, thank you, Andrew. And $14.3 of non-recourse.
spk13: Yeah, exactly. Yeah, I think I said non-recourse, but it's the recourse debt that's different here. They really look deeply into the whole organization.
spk08: So, you know, this tells you that all our subs, you know, that they have confidence in the cash flow coming from our subs and the You know, most of our subs are investment grade rating. So it's a great confirmation, and it was, you know, a decade in the making, but the team did a fantastic job in the last year to get this across the finish line.
spk13: Yeah. And the other thing I would just point out is, you know, I think it's a bright line for some investors. So, you know, having this third one, having all three now locked in, I think we'll likely see some new investors be attracted to the company now.
spk12: Got it. Thanks.
spk07: Thank you, Greg. Our next question comes from Ryan Levine with Citi. Ryan, your line is now open.
spk04: Good morning. Give me a simple view of the deep, you know, Given your favorable view of the DOC outcome and balance sheet strength, are you looking to be more inquisitive in new in-development third-party solar projects on the short run?
spk08: Look, what we're seeing is that clients are coming to us and asking us, can we do projects that other people have walked away from, quite frankly. Now, what we're mostly interested in the states, you know, these 24-7 projects, So really it has to do, does it fit into where we're trying to combine assets to be able to deliver 24-7? But it does open up some opportunities. So I think, again, on the Department of Commerce case, you know, we just feel that the legal case of the length of here is very, very weak. And we think that, you know, furthermore, if you look at the objectives of, you know, decarbonization of onshoring, this actually moves us in the wrong direction. So, yeah, where I would put it is that we continue to, you know, see opportunities to acquire some projects if they help us meet our clients' demands.
spk04: I appreciate the color. And then I guess one follow-up from earlier. Were you able to break out the Bulgarian wind contribution to the quarter?
spk13: We did not. probably best as we talk about the full year, but we expect it will be a few cents for the full year.
spk04: Okay. Appreciate it. Thank you.
spk07: Thank you, Ryan. Our next question comes from David Peters with Wolf Research. David, your line is now open.
spk03: Yeah, hey, good morning, everybody. I'm just curious, Andres, I think in your remarks you said you expect backlog additions this year to be roughly 50-50 U.S. and international. Is that the mix you guys expected heading into this year, or are you leveraging your geographic diversity some, given the uncertainty here in the U.S. in the near term? And should we maybe think of that as a lever you can sort of pull in 23 to the extent there are delays with U.S. projects?
spk08: Well, I mean, for 2023, these will be projects that are already signed in terms of commissioning. Now, in terms of signings, yes. Obviously, we have a diverse portfolio, and we can adjust correspondingly. So I don't think it would affect 2023 per se. Now, the sort of 50-50 makes, again, that sort of legacy. And, again, what we hope, again, with the resolution of this case – is that the proportion of U.S. would increase.
spk13: Yeah. And I would just add it's also coming from our utility rate-based growth, so 9% rate-based growth in utilities. It's helping achieve that. And then a lot of what we're doing, well, really almost everything we're doing, even internationally, is in a similar strategy with commercial industrial customers, some of them the same customers in the U.S., powering data centers in our core markets overseas. So we'd expect to have a similar trend. you know, if it's in a different flag, but it would still be, you know, a long-term contract, and in many cases, U.S. dollar-denominated contracts.
spk08: That's a very important point. I mean, what we're really emphasizing abroad is long-term renewable contracts in dollars. So if you're supplying, say, Microsoft in Chile, it really isn't a different risk from Microsoft in California. So, you know, again, our business is already, you know, over 80% in dollars, and that will only grow.
spk03: Thank you. And then just the last one. In California, just in light of solar delays this year and next, and maybe storage that's attached to that too, you now potentially have an extension of Diablo Canyon being discussed. I'm just curious, your guys' most recent thoughts on the likelihood of your OTC units at Southlands getting extended at the end of 2023?
spk13: Without jinxing ourselves, we think it's very likely. So, you know, the environment there is not such that, you know, they want to do long-term extensions all at once, but we've extended through 2023. And, you know, it's not an upside to our guidance, but we do think there's a very good chance that those plans will get extended into, you know, several years following. So it may be year by year, it may be two years at a time, but We think that portfolio is very important and, you know, some of the disruption. This is a bit of an offset to some of the current disruption in the solar supply chain. And that comes both from a capacity revenue perspective as well as the opportunity for the Q3 peak demand energy hedging that we've done. So it can be quite material. Okay, great. Thank you.
spk07: Thank you, David. That concludes today's Q&A portion of the call. I will now pass the conference back over to Susan Harcourt for any closing remarks.
spk01: We thank everybody for joining us on today's call. As always, the IR team will be available to answer any follow-up questions you may have. Thank you, and have a nice day.
spk07: That concludes today's AES first quarter 2022 financial review conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.
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