Alamos Gold Inc.

This conference has been recorded. This conference is recorded.

Please stand by. Your meeting is about to begin. Good morning. I would like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Jamie Porter, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. And thanks, everyone, for attending Alamosa's fourth quarter and year-end 2022 conference call. In addition to myself, we have on the line today John McCluskey, President and CEO, Luc Guimond, Chief Operating Officer, and Scott R.G. Parsons, Vice President of Exploration. To address any questions with respect to our reserve resource update, we also have on the line today Chris Boswick, our Senior Vice President of Technical Services. We will be referring to a presentation during the conference call that is available to the webcast and on our website. I would also like to remind everyone that our presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. As we will be making forward-looking statements during the call, please refer to the cautionary notes included in the presentation news release, and management's discussion analysis, as well as the risk factors set out in our annual information form. Technical information in this presentation has been reviewed and approved by Chris Boswick, our Senior Vice President of Technical Services, and a qualified person. Also, please bear in mind that all of the dollar amounts referred to in this conference call are in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise noted. Now, I'll pass it on to John to provide you with an overview of the quarter.

Thank you, Jamie, and good morning, everyone. Now, starting with slide three, We had a strong finish to the year with record production of 134,000 ounces and costs coming in at the lower point of the year in the fourth quarter. All of our operations performed well, including a standout performance from Milatos and the low-cost Liaki Grande operation ramped up in operating at full capacity. Liaki Grande was a key contributor to our stronger consolidated free cash flow generation in the quarter of $18 million. along with a steady ongoing performance from Young-Davidson. For the full year, we produced 460,000 ounces of gold in line with the midpoint of guidance. All three operations had a strong year meeting their respective production guidance. Total cash costs of $884 per ounce and all in sustaining costs of $1,204 per ounce also met guidance and were both below the midpoint, a solid performance given industry-wide inflationary pressures. As outlined in our reserves and resources, updated earlier this week, we continue to add value through exploration. Mining depletion was more than replaced with a 2% increase in our global reserves to 10.5 million ounces of gold, along with a 3% increase in grades, driven by higher grade additions at Island Gold and Mulattoes. This marked the fourth consecutive increase in our year-end reserves, with grades also increasing over that time frame as we continue to improve the quality of the overall reserve base. I look at slide four. Last month we released our updated three-year production and operating guidance. Reflecting stronger outlooks at Island Gold and Mulattoes, we increased our production guidance for 2023 and 2024. We expect production to increase 9% this year to approximately 500,000 ounces of gold and remain at similar levels in 2024 and 2025. Our 2025 guidance excludes the higher-grade PDA project, which, as we outlined earlier this week, now contains a 70% larger reserve of 728,000 ounces. This represents potential production upside at Mulatto's, which we expect to outline in a development plan for PDA to be completed in the second half of this year. All in sustaining costs are expected to decrease 4% in 2023 and 17% by 2025 to approximately $1,000 per ounce, driven by low-cost production growth from Liaki Grande and Island Gold. Our declining cost profile helps us stand out in a sector that is battling industry-wide inflationary pressures. A further increase in production and improvements in cost is expected in 2026, following the completion of the phase three plus expansion at Island Gold. This expansion will be a game changer for the operation and for the company, and will grow our annual production to over 600,000 ounces of gold per year once the shaft is complete. Longer term, through the development of the Lynn Lake project, we have the potential to increase our annual production to approximately 800,000 ounces per year. Now looking at slide five, We demonstrated in the fourth quarter we can more than fund our growth internally while generating solid free cash flow. We are taking a disciplined and balanced approach to growth by focusing on island gold such that at current gold prices, we expect to generate more than $100 million of free cash flow per year while funding the phase three plus expansion. With that, I'll turn the call over to our CFO, Jamie Porter, who will review our financial performance.

Thank you, John. Moving on to slide six, we sold 133,164 ounces of gold in the fourth quarter at an average realized price of $1,741 per ounce, $15 per ounce above the London PM fixed price for record revenues of 232 million. Total cash costs of $810 per ounce and all in sustaining costs of $1,138 per ounce were below full-year guidance and the lowest level of the year, benefiting from higher grades at Island Gold and low-cost production growth from La Yequi Grande. For the full year, we sold 456,600 ounces of gold at a realized price of $1,799 per ounce for revenues of $821 million. Operating cash flow before change to non-cash working capital increased 14% from the third quarter, $109 million or $0.28 per share. For the full year, operating cash flow before change to non-cash foreign capital was $362 million or $0.92 per share. Our reported net earnings of $41 million in the fourth quarter or $0.10 per share included unrealized foreign exchange gains of $12 million recorded within deferred taxes and foreign exchange, partially offset by other losses of $5 million. Excluding these items, our adjusted net earnings were $34 million or $0.09 per share. Our full year adjusted net earnings were $108 million or $0.28 per share. With the ramp up of construction activities on the Phase 3 Plus expansion at Island, capital spending increased to $85 million in the fourth quarter. This included $27 million of sustaining capital, $50 million of growth capital, and $8 million of capitalized exploration. For the full year, capital expenditures of $314 million came in below the guidance range with some capital for the Phase 3 Plus expansion deferred into the next few years. Free cash flow increased to $18 million in the fourth quarter, up substantially from earlier in the year, driven by the ramp-up of low-cost production from Layaki Grande and a strong ongoing contribution from Young-Davidson. This included $29 million of free cash flow in the quarter from Mulatto's and another $24 million from Young-Davidson. For the second consecutive year, Young-Davidson has generated more than $100 million of free cash flow. We've remained debt free and ended the year with $130 million in cash, $19 million of equity securities, and $500 million of undrawn credit capacity. With higher production and lower costs expected over the next several years, we remain very well positioned to continue generating solid free cash flow while funding our high return growth projects and supporting ongoing returns to shareholders. This included returning $47 million in 2022 through dividends and share buybacks. With that, I'll turn the call over to our COO, Luke Guimond, to provide an overview of our operations for the quarter and year. Thank you, Jamie.

Moving to slide seven, Young-Davidson produced 44,600 ounces in the fourth quarter and 192,000 ounces for the full year, in line with the midpoint of guidance. The operation generated another 24 million of mine site free cash flow in the quarter, bringing the full year total to more than 100 million for the second consecutive year. Total cash costs of $942 per ounce and mine site all-in sustaining costs of $1,284 per ounce in the fourth quarter were up from earlier in the year, but both were in line with guidance on a full year basis. As previously guided, we expect similar production in 2023 of between 185,000 and 200,000 ounces with a similar rate of capital spending and slightly higher costs reflecting industry-wide cost inflation. With a strong outlook and a 15-year reserve life, Young-Davidson is well positioned to generate 100 million in free cash flow per year in 2023 and over the long term. Over to slide 8, Island Gold had a strong finish to the year, producing 40,500 ounces in the fourth quarter at a total cash cost of $605 per ounce, and mine site all-in sustaining costs of $863 per ounce. This brought full-year production to 133,700 ounces near the top end of guidance. Full-year costs were slightly above guidance, in large part reflecting the processing of lower-grade stockpile ore at Yonge-Davidson. While very profitable, these ounces carried a higher cost structure, contributing to the higher-than-guided costs. The operation used $15 million of cash in the quarter and $9 million for the full year, given the ramp-up in capital spending on the Phase III-plus expansion. Excluding $24 million of exploration spending during the year, Island Gold more than self-funded the expansion. In 2023, we expect Island Gold to produce 120,000 to 135,000 ounces, consistent with what was outlined in the phase three plus study. As with Young-Davidson, all unsustaining costs are expected to increase slightly from 2022, reflecting industry-wide cost inflation. Over to slide nine, work on the phase three plus expansion continues to ramp up with significant progress made in the quarter. This included completing the shaft precinct down to its final depth of 42 meters in November. We also completed shaft site earthworks and critical path concrete foundations. As you can see in the photo to the right, we are now in the process of erecting structural steel for the hoist house and hoist drive cooling building. Our focus during the first half of 2023 will be on construction of the hoist house and head frame, with the sinking of the shaft expected to commence in the latter part of the year. We are making solid progress on what is a lower risk expansion with the majority of the earthworks completed, the tailings facility already expanded, and far less unknowns with this being an operating mine. The expansion remains on track to be completed in 2026, after which Island Gold will be among the largest, lowest cost, and most profitable gold mines in Canada. Moving to slide 10, the Mulatto's district produced 49,100 ounces in the fourth quarter. a 15% increase from the third quarter, with all-in sustaining costs decreasing 19% to $922 per ounce. Collectively, the Mulatto District generated sharply higher free cash flow of $29 million in the quarter, with Layaki Grande being the driver. Full-year production of 134,500 ounces was in line with guidance, while costs were below guidance, again given strong performance from Layaki Grande in the second half of the year. With a full year of low-cost production from La Yaqui Grande in 2023, Mulatto's district production is expected to increase 34% to between 175,000 and 185,000 ounces at 21% lower mine site all-in sustaining costs. Over to slide 11, La Yaqui Grande produced 37,300 ounces in the fourth quarter. a 47% increase from the third quarter at 22% lower, all in sustaining costs of $545 per ounce. The operation is fully ramped up and performed extremely well during the second full quarter of operations, with stacking rates increasing to average 11,100 tons per day for the full quarter, above the design rate of 10,000 tons per day. Following the start of operations in June, La Yaqui Grande produced 67,600 ounces at industry low, all in sustaining costs of just under $600 per ounce. With a similar performance expected in 2023 and over a full year, La Yaqui Grande is expected to be a key driver of strong, ongoing free cash flow from the Mulatto District. I will now turn the call over to Scott Parsons, our VP Exploration, to discuss the reserve and resource update. Thank you, Luke.

Over to slide 12. We continue to have broad-based success with our exploration programs, with reserves increasing 2% to 10.5 million ounces, more than replacing 591,000 ounces of depletion. Grades also increased 3%, reflecting higher-grade additions to Island Gold and Mulattoes, more than offsetting a slight decrease at Yonge-Davidson. Total reserves have now increased for four consecutive years, up 8% over that time frame. Grades have also increased 8% as we continue to add higher grade ounces and improve the quality of our reserve base. Global measured and indicated resources also increased by 14% to 3.9 million ounces at slightly higher grades, reflecting additions at all of our operations and a new resource at our Golden Arrow project located near Yonge-Davidson. Similarly, inferred resources increased 2% to 7.1 million ounces. Over to slide 13. Island globe continues to grow with high grade reserves and resources increasing across all categories for combined 4% increase to 5.3 million ounces net of depletion. This marks the seventh consecutive year that combined reserves and resources have grown with grades also increasing over that timeframe. Reserves increased 9% to 1.5 million ounces net of depletion, the 10th consecutive year of growth. Grades also increased 6% to 10.8 grams per ton. Moving to slide 14, the main driver of the increase in reserves and grades was the conversion of higher grade mineral resources in the middle portion of Island East. As shown in the long section, a further 204,000 ounces were added, doubling the reserves in this area to 410,400 ounces at similar higher grades, averaging 12.5 grams per ton, 15% above the average reserve grade. As can be seen in the very high grade inferred resource block below it, we also replaced the majority of resources converted to mineral reserves in this island east area at substantially higher grades. This inferred block now contains 1.9 million ounces, with grades increasing 10% from a year ago to average 17 grams per ton. Several of the best holes ever drilled at Island Gold have come from this high-grade ore chute over the past few years, contributing to the significant increase in resources and grades. These resources have been converting to reserves greater than 90%, With this zone open laterally and down plunge, there's excellent potential for continued growth in higher grade reserves and resources. Over to slide 15. At Mulatto's, growth of higher grade underground reserves of PDA more than offset depletion of lower grade open pit ore, driving a 9% increase in total of Mulatto's district reserves and a 19% increase in grades. Reserves of PDA increased by 70% to 728,000 ounces, Grades also increasing 4% to 4.8 grams per ton. Since declaring an initial reserve at PDA last year, combined reserves and resources have grown rapidly to now total 1 million ounces, a 71% increase from a year ago. With a deposit open in multiple directions and an expanded exploration program planned during the first half of 2023, we expect the PDA will continue to grow. The higher grade ore from PDA is expected to be processed through the existing mill at Mulatto's. expanded to accommodate a significantly larger reserve. A development plan for PDA, incorporating the growth in reserves and resources, is expected to be completed in the second half of this year. Excluding PDA, the remaining mineral reserve life of the Mulatto District is approximately five years. We expect that PDA will more than double this. Globally, we have a $47 million budget for exploration in 2023. With more than half allocated to following up on the significant ongoing potential of mulattoes and island gold, we see excellent potential to continue adding higher-grade ounces to our reserve base. With that, I'll turn the call back over to John.

Thank you, Scott. I'll now ask the operator to open the line for your questions. Operator?

Thank you. We'll now take questions from the telephone line. If you have a question, I'm using a speakerphone. Please lift your handset before making your selection. If you have a question, please press star 1 on your device's keypad. To cancel the question, please press star 2. Please press star 1. At this time, if you have a question, there will be a brief pause. Participants register. Thank you for your patience. And the first question is from Mike Parkin from National Bank. Please go ahead.

Hi, guys. Just congrats on the quarter. Nice results across the board. At Layaki Grande, this asset certainly seems to be performing extremely well. Can you just give us some sense on what 2023 guidance is assuming relative to where it's kind of performing? On slide 11, it's noted there that you're exceeding design capacity rates. Is the design rate of 10,000 tons per day what guidance is based off of?

Yeah, Mike, it's Luke here. Yeah, look, we've had a bit of overperformance certainly to start in 2022, but our long-term design rate is to average 10,000 tons per day out of Oyaki.

Okay. Can you give any color on what's driving that outperformance?

Well, just 30 stages of the pit operation, so we've just been a bit more productive, but as we continue to advance with the benches, we expect to be able to sustain a more reasonable 10,000 ton per day on average.

Okay. Thanks. That's it for me.

Thank you. The next question is from Terry Smith from Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

Thanks, Operator. Good morning. Luke, just at Island, the The mining costs were, I think, 152 Canadian in Q4, which was higher than the average for the year, and then that 2022 average was higher than 2021. Do you think we've kind of seen the peak in the unit costs at Island here? Obviously, they will creep up as you go deeper in the mine, but are you kind of expecting like 23%, 24%, Maybe we're going to be around 145, 150 a ton, or should we be thinking about a higher number than that?

Well, I think, I mean, you know, we've obviously had some cost inflation pressures in the business carried. And so that's reflected a bit in that unit cost. I mean, what's also affected, I guess, the results for Q4 was there was less tons mined overall in the quarter, which affected obviously the unit cost as well. But But as we continue to go deeper and obviously once we bring on the shaft, the shaft infrastructure is going to be centralized. So from a unit cost basis, we're going to be a lot more efficient than what we're doing currently with the ramp system falling out of the mine.

Okay. Yeah, no, I was thinking more until the shaft comes in what we should think about for unit costs. Okay, that's helpful.

Yeah, I would just add to that. I mean, I'd say, you know, similar to where we are currently, I wouldn't expect some significant increases. Like I said, some things will start to stabilize from an inflation point of view as far as some of our cost inputs for supplies.

Okay. Okay. And at YD, you've been mining below reserve grades for a while. I know the reserve grade came off a little bit with the higher gold price assumption this year. But when does that flip over and you actually start mining either reserve grade or slightly above reserve grades?

Well, as we continue to move through the mine plan, we will start to be above reserve grade. I mean, it's really sequence-driven, you know, just sound geotechnical mining as far as the extraction of that ore body. So as a result of that, you know, the grades are what we see in front of us based on that sequence. But, you know, in the next couple of years, you'll start to see some higher grades above reserve grade.

Okay. Okay. And then I'm not sure – I know Chris is on the call. What was the dilution assumption that you assumed – for the reserve calculation at PDA to get that 4.84 grams a ton? Like, how did they calculate the dilution?

Yeah, Kerry, we assumed 20% dilution, which is similar to what we experienced previously at San Carlos, and 90% mining extraction.

Okay. Okay. That's great. Thank you, guys.

Thank you. Once again, please press star 1 at this time if you have a question. And the next question is from Harmon Perry from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Just given that we have detailed through your guidance with cost and CapEx and there's obviously cash flow generation, can you sort of just remind us about maybe the capital allocation priorities aside from just the expansion at Island? So just maybe some color around capital returns and anything else that might be competing with your capital over that three-year period?

Yeah, thanks for the question. It's Jamie here. I think over the next two years, I mean, the focus certainly is on Island Phase 3+. We are in great shape, as we indicated throughout the presentation this morning. We're pretty much self-funding that expansion with cash flow from operations from Island. And at current gold prices, we'll end the year with a cash balance of close to $200 million. So I think our dividend is sustainable. We'll be able to maintain, hold the dividend for the next couple of years. We'll look for opportunities to potentially be active on our NCIB. But, yeah, the focus over the near term is certainly on Phase 3+, and longer term on Lynn Lake. So we'll be providing updates on that later this year.

And is there any code you can sort of provide on maybe the M&A outlook? Is there any interest in maybe transacting or if you see an opportunity of that sort?

Like most companies, we're always looking at what's going on in the market. But at the moment, there's nothing imminent or actionable. We look at M&A in a variety of ways. I mean, internal to our Our operations, proximal to our operations, we're always looking at opportunities there. As far as bigger transactions are concerned, if you look at our past performance, we tend to transact when the market is pretty much at its worst. Right now, I wouldn't characterize the market that way at all. I think it's doing reasonably well. And we're certainly not getting any pressure from our investors with respect to M&A. They see we've got a pretty good growth profile in front of us with the island gold expansion and the opportunity to build Lynn Lake after that. And, of course, even the PDA is starting to come into view. We don't obviously have anything on it quite yet, but with nearly a million ounces taking shape there, we're getting ready to – to gear up at mulattoes, adding a new source of mill production that can carry us well into the 2030s. So I think our growth prospects right now, just from our organic growth, look pretty attractive. And there's no pressure to do anything more.

That's great, Culler. Thank you. That's it for me.

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. This concludes this morning's call. If you have any questions that have not been answered, please feel free to contact Mr. Scott Parsons at 416-368-9932, extension 5439. Thank you for your assistance on the call today. You may now disconnect your lines.