Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.

Welcome to the fiscal 2021 second quarter earnings call for Applied Industrial Technologies. My name is Mariama and I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question at that time, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Prior to asking a question, lift your handset to ensure the best audio quality. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Ryan Cieslak, Director of Investor Relations and Treasury. Ryan, you may begin.

Thanks, Mariama, and good morning to everyone on the call. This morning we issued our earnings release and supplemental investor deck detailing our second quarter results. Both of these documents are available in the investor relations section of applied.com. Before we begin, just a reminder, we'll discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements are based on current expectations subject to certain risks, including a potential impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as trends in sectors and geographies, the success of our business strategy, and other risk factors. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statement. In addition, the conference call will use non-GAAP financial measures, which are subject to the qualifications referenced in those documents. Our speakers today include Neil Scrimshaw, Applied's President and Chief Executive Officer, and Dave Wells, our Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'll turn it over to Neil.

Thanks, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us and hope your new year is starting well. I'll begin today with some perspective on our second quarter results, current industry conditions, and our position going forward. Dave will follow with a summary of our financials and some specifics on our second quarter and outlook, and then I'll close with some final thoughts. We're pleased to report a solid and productive quarter for Applied, along with positive momentum building as we enter the second half of our fiscal year. Our team executed extremely well during the second quarter, and we saw sustained sequential improvement in customer demand following the initial recovery highlighted last quarter. We are leveraging our industry position and generating incremental traction from our strategic growth initiatives. These include addressing customers' early cycle technical MRO needs, as well as playing a vital role in supporting efficiency and performance initiatives across their critical industrial infrastructure. We believe these customer initiatives will be increasingly relevant, giving a greater focus on operational risk management and supply chain considerations. We are capturing these initial tailwinds while remaining disciplined with controlling costs as sales continue to recover. Cost accountability and execution have always been key to our culture and remain integral to our operational focus going forward. This is supplemented by operating efficiencies gained from optimizing processes, systems, and talent across the organization in recent years. While additional expense restoration will occur in the second half of our fiscal year, we expect these counter elements to provide further balance to our cost trajectory near-term and support our long-term EBITDA margin expansion potential as the demand recovery continues to unfold and we leverage our operational network. I'm also encouraged by the strong cash generation we continue to see across the business. Year-to-date free cash is up over 60% from prior year levels and over 200% of adjusted net income. While influenced by the counter-cyclical nature of our model, cash flow is ahead of our expectations and up meaningfully from prior year levels. This highlights the progress we continue to make with regard to expanding our market position while optimizing our margin profile and working capital management. Our first half cash generation and balance sheet flexibility leave us well positioned entering the second half of our fiscal year. As it relates to the broader demand environment, underlying trends remain below prior year levels during our fiscal second quarter, but continue to improve sequentially despite the recent rise in COVID rates. We saw greater break-fix and maintenance-related demand across our service center network on rising production activity, greater spending authorizations, and enhanced sales momentum across strategic accounts. Customers are remaining productive in the current environment as established safety protocols are proving effective and providing support. Demand across our fluid power and flow control segment was also encouraging. with order activity and backlog momentum building. This partially reflects firm demand from our leading service and engineered solutions capabilities as secular growth tailwinds continue across various industries. Combined, the year-over-year organic sales decline of 10.5% in the quarter improved from 13.5% decline last quarter. Year-over-year trends improved each month, while sequential trends in daily sales rates were seasonally strong. Areas such as food and beverage, aggregates, technology, lumber and wood, chemicals, and pulp and paper continue to show positive momentum. And while year-over-year weakness remains greatest across heavy industries, such as machinery, metals, and oil and gas, Demand within these verticals continues to gradually improve, and related indicators suggest further recovery could emerge in the coming quarters. The positive sales momentum has continued into the early part of fiscal third quarter, with organic sales through the first 17 days of January down a mid-single digit percent over the prior year. It's important to note that visibility remains limited and uncertainty persists as customers continue to manage through a challenging macro and pandemic outlook near term. Like many, we are hopeful the business environment continues to recover as vaccines are deployed further in coming months, but we remain cognizant of the potential impact from resurging COVID cases, timing of mass vaccine distribution, and possible fiscal policy changes from the new administration. As we've shown in recent quarters, we know how to manage and execute in this uncertain business environment. In addition, I firmly believe our value proposition and company-specific growth potential is the greatest in Applied's history. There is evidence of this emerging across the organization. For example, we're playing a key part in the recent vaccine rollout and related COVID-19 response. Our flow control offering and support team are providing critical products and solutions for vaccine production. This includes hygienic diaphragm valves, water for injection pumps, and clean and place flow systems used to clean and regulate material flow and temperature as the vaccine is manufactured. We're proud and grateful to be participating in this historic moment, which highlights our expanding position and capabilities across essential industries. We're also seeing positive momentum across our fluid power operations as more customers integrate new technologies into their equipment and critical assets in order to optimize productivity, safety and energy cost. while reducing broader business and supply chain risk. In addition, demand tailwinds tied to 5G infrastructure, cloud computing, and other growing technologies are driving demand for pneumatic and electronic automation systems. Our leading fluid power service and engineered solutions capabilities provide us a strong position to capture these growth opportunities as reflected in our growing backlog in recent months. Our technical position and long-term opportunity is further supplemented by the progress we are making in expanding our next generation automation solutions following three acquisitions in the past 16 months. This includes a recent acquisition of Gibson Engineering in late December. A growing automation footprint and offering focused on robotics, machine vision, motion control, and digital technologies is being recognized across our industries and presents a significant growth opportunity longer term as we address customers' operational technology needs in an improving industrial sector. We welcome Gibson to apply and look forward to leveraging their innovative technology and capabilities. Overall, from critical break-fix MRO applications to emerging technologies and specialized engineering services, our value proposition is evident, and we continue to see greater demand as industrial production ramps. These are positive developments, and we are benefiting, as customers themselves benefit, from the value we bring to these opportunities. At this time, I'll turn the call over to Dave for additional detail on our financial results and outlook.

Thanks, Neal. Just another reminder before I begin regarding the availability of the quarterly supplemental investor deck, recapping key performance and discussion points, which has been posted to our investor site for your additional reference. In addition, I want to highlight several non-routine items that impacted our second quarter results, as discussed in our press release, and which I will exclude when speaking to our operational results on an adjusted basis. Unusual items in the quarter include a $49.5 million pretax non-cash impairment charge on certain fixed, lease, and intangible assets, as well as non-routine costs of $7.8 million pretax related to inhibitory reserve charge, facility consolidation, and severance. These charges are the result of weaker economic conditions and resulting business alignment initiatives across a portion of our service center segment locations exposed to oil and gas end markets. We remain focused on appropriately aligning costs and resources with current demand levels across our organization following the pandemic-driven downturn over the past year. These business alignment actions are consistent with our internal initiatives and strategic focus going forward and will drive additional cost savings in the back half of our fiscal year. Now turning to our results absent these non-routine charges, during our second quarter, consolidated sales decreased 9.9% over the prior year quarter. Acquisitions contributed a half point of growth, and foreign currency was favorable by 0.1%. Netting these factors, sales decreased 10.5% on an organic basis with a like number of selling days year over year. While slowed down as compared to the prior year quarter, sales exceeded our expectations with average daily sales rates up nearly 3% sequentially on an organic basis and above the normal seasonal trends for the second straight quarter. Following a slow start to the quarter in early October, sales activity strengthened sequentially and remained firm late in the quarter despite typical seasonal slowness and rising COVID cases across the U.S. Comparative sales performance was relatively consistent across both segments, as highlighted on slides 6 and 7. Sales in our service center segment declined 10.4% year-over-year or 10.5% on an organic basis when excluding the modest impact from foreign currency. The year-over-year organic decline of 10.5% improved notably relative to the mid-teen to low 20% declines we saw the prior two quarters while the segment's average daily sales rates increased nearly 4% sequentially from our September quarter and over 8% from the June quarter. The sequential improvement primarily reflects greater customer maintenance activity and break-fix demand across our core U.S. service center network. Positive momentum has been relatively broad-based, though end markets such as food and beverage, aggregates, pulp and paper, lumber and forestry, and rubber are leading in recovery. Heavier industries are also starting to show positive signs, while ongoing growth across our Australian operations has provided additional support. Within our fluid power and flow control segment, sales decreased 8.5% over the prior year quarter, with our recent acquisition of ACS contributing 1.6 points of growth. On an organic basis, segment sales declined 10.1%, reflecting lower demand across various industrial, off-highway mobile, and process-related end markets. This was partially offset by firm demand within technology, life sciences, transportation, and chemical end markets. In addition, as Neil mentioned, we are seeing encouraging demand for fluid power solutions tied to electronic control integration, equipment optimization, and pneumatic automation. This is supporting backlog, which was up both sequentially and year-over-year at the end of the quarter. Moving to gross margin performance, as highlighted on page 8 of the deck, adjusted gross margin of 28.9% declined 8 basis points year-over-year or 19 basis points when excluding non-cash LIFO expense of $0.9 million in the quarter and $1.9 million in the prior year quarter. On a sequential basis, adjusted gross margins were largely unchanged. Overall, adjusted gross margin trends were in line with our expectations and continued to reflect some volume-driven headwinds year over year, as highlighted last quarter, which were partially offset by the ongoing benefit from our internal initiatives. Turning to our operating costs, on an adjusted basis, selling, distribution, and administrative expenses declined 11.2% year over year, or approximately 12% when excluding incremental operating costs associated with our ACS acquisition. The year-over-year decline reflects the ongoing benefit of cost actions taken in recent quarters to align expenses with volume. As discussed in prior calls, this includes a mix of both structural and temporary actions. While we have restored a portion of the temporary cost actions, our team continues to demonstrate great discipline in controlling cost. These results highlight the resiliency of the applied team and our operating model, as well as efficiency gains from operational excellence initiatives, leverage of our shared services model, and technology investments made in recent years. Year-over-year comparisons also benefited from this amortization expense following the asset impairment charge we took during the quarter. For your reference, our second quarter depreciation and amortization expense of $13.5 million is a good quarterly run rate to assume going forward. Overall, our strong cost control combined with improving sales trends during the quarter resulted in mid-single-digit decremental margins on adjusted operating income or high single-digit decrementals when excluding depreciation and amortization expense. Going forward, we will remain prudent and disciplined in managing our cost structure as we continue to roll off temporary cost actions to align with our recent performance and a more constructive outlook. Since the start of our fiscal year, we have gradually eliminated these temporary cost actions as the business environment has slowly recovered and expect to discontinue the vast majority of the remaining temporary cost actions during this current fiscal third quarter. Adjusted EBIT in the quarter was $68.3 million. down 8.4% compared to the prior year quarter. While adjusted EBITDA margin was 9.1%, up 14 basis points over the prior year are virtually flat when excluding non-cash LIFO expense in both periods. On a GAAP basis, we reported an operating loss of 14 cents per share, which includes the previously referenced non-cash impairment and non-routine charges. On a non-GAAP adjusted basis, excluding these items, We reported earnings per share of 98 cents, which compared to 97 cents in the prior year quarter. Our adjusted tax rate during the quarter of 18.6% was below prior levels of 23%, as well as our guidance of 23 to 25%. The adjusted tax rate during the quarter includes several discrete benefits related to income tax credits and stock auction exercises. We believe a tax rate of 23 to 25% for the second half of fiscal 2021 is an appropriate assumption near term. Moving to our cash flow performance and liquidity, cash generated from operating activities during the second quarter was $77.5 million, while free cash flow totaled $72.7 million, or approximately 190% of adjusted net income. This was up from $55 million and $48 million, respectively, as compared to the prior year quarter and represents record second quarter cash generation. Year to date, free cash generation of $151 million is up over 60% for prior year levels and represents a 206% factor of adjusted net income. The strong cash performance year to date reflects solid operational execution, significant ongoing contribution from our working capital initiatives, and the countercyclical cash flow profile of our business model. Given the strong free cash flow performance in the quarter, we ended December with approximately $289 million of cash on hand. Of note, this is after utilizing cash during the quarter for two acquisitions. Net leverage stood at 2.1 times adjusted EBITDA at quarter end, consistent with the prior quarter and below the prior level of 2.5 times. In addition, our revolver remains undrawn with approximately $250 million of capacity and an additional $250 million accordion option. Combined with incremental capacity on our uncommitted private shelf facility, our liquidity remains strong. This provides flexibility to fund incremental working capital requirements in coming quarters as customer demand continues to improve, as well as to pursue strategic M&A and fund other growth initiatives. Our M&A focus near-term remains on smaller, bolt-on targets that align with our growth priorities, including additional automation and fluid power opportunities. In addition, as noted in our press release, today we announced that our Board of Directors approved an increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.33 per common share. This represents the 12th dividend increase since 2010 and understores our strong cash generation and commitment to delivering shareholder value. Transitioning now to our outlook, based on month-to-date trends in January and assuming normal sequential patterns, we would expect fiscal third quarter 2021 organic sales to decline by 3% to 4% on a year-over-year basis. This includes an assumption of low single-digit organic declines in our service center segment, and mid-single-digit organic declines in our fluid power and flow control segment. Again, this direction is meant to provide a starting framework on how third quarter sales could shape up if trends follow normal seasonality going forward. In addition, we expect our recent acquisitions of ACS and Gibson Engineering to contribute approximately $10 to $11 million in sales during our fiscal third quarter. We expect those margins to remain relatively unchanged sequentially into the second half of fiscal 2021. We continue to see some incremental price announcements from suppliers, though the magnitude of the increases are not materially different from what we've seen over the past year. Our history highlights strong management of supplier inflation and price cost dynamics, reflecting our industry position, internal initiatives, and positive mixed opportunities. As it relates to operating costs, based on the 3% to 4% organic sales decline assumption, we would expect selling, distribution, and administrative expense of between $170 million and $175 million during our fiscal third quarter. In addition, if sales follow normal sequential patterns for the balance of the year, we would expect a similar to slightly higher SD&A range in our fiscal fourth quarter. This represents an increase from second quarter levels and partially reflects the ongoing roll off of temporary cost actions. As indicated, we will continue to take a mindful and balanced approach to managing our operating costs going forward. We are encouraged by our cost and margin execution year to date, which is providing a strong position to further discontinue temporary cost actions as we take an offensive approach to an emerging recovery and our strategic growth targets. Lastly, from a cash flow perspective, we expect free cash to moderate in the second half relative to first half levels. Working capital will likely become a use of cash as AR levels start to cyclically build and we begin to replace inventory in support of our growth opportunities and the recovery as the year moves forward. We remain confident in our cash generation potential and reiterate our normalized annual free cash target of at least 100% of net income over a cycle. With that, I will now turn the call back over to Neal for some final comments.

Thanks, Dave. Approximately three quarters ago, during the initial weeks of the pandemic, I stated my belief that Applied has never been in a better position to manage through the current environment and exit the pandemic-driven downturn in an even stronger position. Our performance since then provides strong confirmation of this position the tremendous team we have at Applied, and the earnings potential that lies ahead. This includes record cash generation and a 30% reduction in our net debt, our strong cost execution supporting relatively stable EBITDA margins despite the meaningful in-market slowdown. During this time, we also completed two acquisitions, supplementing our long-term growth profile while advancing other key growth initiatives. including optimizing our cross-selling opportunity and strategic in-market positioning. We are delivering on our requirements and commitments while moving the organization toward our longer-term next milestone financial objectives of $4.5 billion of revenue and 11% EBITDA margins. We remain cognizant of ongoing in-market uncertainties. But we're eager to demonstrate what we're fully capable of in the years ahead as we continue to leverage our differentiated industry position as the leading technical distributor and solutions provider across critical industrial infrastructure. Once again, we thank you for your continued support. And with that, we'll open up the lines for your questions.

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please pick up your handset, press star and then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question from the queue, press the pound key. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from David Manthe with Baird. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning, everyone. morning um so um could you outline the uh automation outlook for uh as we enter calendar 2021 here with olympus ads and gibson and what i'm wondering is can you now approach the market differently with the expanded geographic coverage that you have

So I believe we can approach the market fully. And so work that would go on now as we look across these businesses, we can share best practices that go on and approach and technology for sales engineers. We can look at support and perhaps develop and work from an applications engineering standpoint to start across the group. And then as we have opportunities that can exist in some of the geographies, we can leverage some back office infrastructure that would start. So it's early to be doing that. And so each of the groups will be working their current customer base, their current pipeline of opportunities. But we're broadening the effort to say, where can we connect this automation to current

what would have been legacy service center customers for additional growth opportunities yeah that's helpful neil and on that last point that was my second question is have you begun the process of cross-selling and have the legacy applied sales people been trained to to at least be knowledgeable in automation and robotics so they can they can pull the experts in or How is that going, or can you just give us a timeline as far as where we are and where we're going in that prospect?

I would say while early, we are raising that awareness of our account managers and selling teams of what is available. when they're inside of facilities, where to look for the opportunities, how to start the dialogue, and then providing support with automation-capable individuals to help connect the dots. And so we have projects. We have early results in the pipeline across that customer base. and we have growing interest in that capability. And so you can imagine more in the west, started in the southeast, and we're just getting started in that northeast mid-Atlantic. But now with that growing footprint and capability, that can occur with customers that have sites and facilities across the geography.

Sounds great, Neil. Thank you.

All right. Thanks, Dave.

Your next question comes from Adam Ullman with Cleveland Research. Your line is open.

Hey, guys. Good morning. Congrats on the solid quarter. I wanted to start with a question around cash flow. I'm wondering what you're going to do with all this cash you're generating. I guess, you know, inventory, working capital, sounds like that's a – a source here or a use over the next six months. Could you maybe dimension how you're thinking about inventory additions as business levels start to pick up? And then related to that, sale prices have jumped quite a bit. I'm sure the supplier price increases are starting to come through. Any opportunity to buy ahead of that? Is that an opportunity here in the December quarter or Maybe you could do a little bit before then to mitigate the impact of higher material costs.

Sure. I mean, we're going to continue to evaluate, and I think we have a very good cross-functional process put into place to evaluate the tradeoffs between the investment in inventory, tying up working capital, and leveraging those pre-buy opportunities. So we'll see that continue in the back half of the year. That's yielded great results as you look at our our cash flow year-to-date, really the working capital efficiency being a key driver of the overdrive that we have seen. That said, yeah, I think we're going to be mindful of what we put back on the shelf, going to pace the rate of demand, and while protecting, you know, making the bias that we need to make to protect our customer base against outages and, you know, where it makes sense, buy in advance of potential increases. But, you know, historically we've done a very good job of matching and you being able to manage that price-cost inflation. We see that trend continues to move forward as we continue to leverage the inventory position and systems in place. So back to the original question, we'll see some build in working capital as a result of just the sheer volume impact on AR, even though we continue to make a nice job, do a nice job of reducing our past year position down another five points year-over-year across the business. but then continue to leverage that cash for strategic M&A, continue to evaluate other growth opportunities to drive shareholder value.

And, Adam, I would add, if we look back at our second quarter, I think price was kind of a modest contribution there. I think it's very similar in the third quarter. And while the input costs still and other commodities start to go up, it is an input, you know, for many of our suppliers. They would still be processing them through. We do see increased demand. of price increases coming. Many of them have announced periods to allow an orderly implementation to go on in that. So I think there'll be greater activity there in the announcements before coming through in results. I'm not for sure it's much of a change in the third quarter. it may be an impact a little more into the fourth. And then obviously as we get into our next fiscal year, and then to Dave's point, we've got a good track record and history of managing that price cost inflation as it goes forward. But I do think there will be a modest ramping as we think about it through the end of this fiscal year.

Gotcha. Thank you. That's very helpful. And my second question here is really on oil and gas. It sounds like you did some more restructuring of your footprint there, but I'm wondering if you're seeing any green shoots in that industry at all.

Well, we talked about in some of the heavier industries perhaps having some of those. For oil and gas, I mean, in it – We did the evaluation as we look and also extend that outlook, led us to making the adjustments of service centers that participate more in that oil and gas sector and reducing the number. Obviously and unfortunately, that impacts individuals. But it does give opportunity to redeploy some of those resources to other growth initiatives. So I would say it's probably early to see many green shoots in oil and gas. We will have. presence. We're still, from a Permian standpoint, from an Anadarko standpoint, to participate in that. But from a percentage of our business, right, it's less than 5% today. And I expect that it stays at that level for a period of time.

Okay. Thank you.

Your next question comes from Chris Dinkert. with Longbow Research. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, everyone. I guess just thinking about the opportunity for preventative maintenance and software revenue, any sense for what inning we're in there with customers? I mean, it's still really early days. What's the additional opportunity with some of this preventative maintenance stuff? And ultimately, do you think adding some of that software revenue can be margin accretive for you guys? Just any thoughts there would be great.

So I would say it is still early. I mean, our approach on, you know, applied Internet of Things and how we connect, we are working very well with our leading manufacturers, and we are targeting specific customers. And I think most customer approaches are focused. They're focused on customers. a facility or areas of facility, prove out success, harness the data that is available off of equipment and use that for predictive maintenance or perhaps for broader remote monitoring across multiple sites, especially with less travel, less physical presence that they're having in their own facility. So I think that is early. We are having success. And as we do, we can replicate that with that customer in the facility and across their landscape. And as we do it within the industries, we can more. But, hey, for us, we think it is a great opportunity. It is very early innings. We are excited about it. And so we're participating, but we think it's one that ramps over a period of time.

Got it. That's helpful. I guess just to kind of quick follow up on that, is this an offering that you guys are kind of leading with, or is that at the moment preventative maintenance more of a customer pull thing where they're requesting it?

We are leading with the enabling technologies that help in their discrete automation opportunities. So some of it may be predictive preventative maintenance, But in many places, it's using vision products to help with quality inspection or perhaps manage out some physical labor that was previously doing it. The use of collaborative robots helps from a labor density standpoint in this time and provides some ongoing productivity in there. The data connection ones are now to say we've had sensor-embedded products for a long period of time, and customers are wanting to connect those and understand that operation in going through. So I think there's many elements into it, and it's not just – technology and monitoring for preventative maintenance.

Makes sense. Makes sense. Thanks for that. And then I guess just the last one from me, talked a lot about automation, but we haven't heard a ton about linear motion. Just any comments on how the growth is progressing there, any additional focus on M&A, or are we kind of shifting the M&A focus more to automation? Just any comments on linear would be great.

I think force overall in priorities, and we're active across, Dave touched on them, some in automation, right, which has been the most recent couple in that. We continue to be focused on and busy from a fluid power standpoint, and we will look to how we selectively add to our capabilities and footprint, whether that be in flow control or the service center. So for us, linear motion, depending on the size, can be across some of those segments in the industry. So it has the opportunity to contribute as we have going forward, but there's a big focus on fluid power, automation, and flow control.

Understood. Thanks so much.

As a reminder, it is star 1 on your telephone keypad to ask a question. Your next question comes from Steve Barker with KeyBank Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Morning, guys. I'm just going to... Stick with the growth initiatives. Now that you have the footprint on the West Coast, the Southeast, the Northeast, are you looking for further geographic coverage in the Midwest, or can you do that here? And as you learn more, do you have the ability to organically create a business unit, or do you need to do that by acquisition?

I think we'll continue to look at companies and organizations that would provide additive benefit and capability. And so even while we're in those geographies, perhaps there's another way to further augment. But as we grow in scale and start to leverage some of the back-shared capabilities of the technology, of the application engineers, greater amount of of sales engineers, even some of the virtual selling capabilities that exist today, we feel like we can grow in geographies also, leveraging footprint and capability that we have. So it could be a mix as we go through. And so we're going to continue to be active and busy as we evaluate that. But as we grow, we're opening up the ability to build on what we have and then leverage existing applied resources that are in the service center selling side, but also in fluid power and flow control.

And as you think about the automation robotics, fluid power, flow control, I guess just bringing it back to automation and robotics specifically and maybe IOT implementations, can you tell us what percentage of revenue that is right now and what that growth rate is or what you expect it to be relative to the rest of the business?

I don't know if I have it top of mind or at hand on percent of revenue. I know we are having success in this environment. And so while it's new to us, the things that are coming into the pipeline and as we move these projects along, they are working hard to commission and get implemented what they have in that side. So probably early to start comparing on the growth side. You know, as we march through less declines in sales and start to return to growth, likely as we think about our fourth quarter and beyond in that, I expect this area to contribute at that rate and greater than that rate to be part of the pulling effort.

And, yeah, just as relates to the size, you think about the acquisitions that have been made specifically over the last 16 months, the three of them. We talked about the size of Oliva's controls. We initially did it around $45 to $50 million of revenue. The last two that we did with ACS and Gibson, about half that size in terms of revenue. So that should give you an idea on an annual basis what those three acquisitions represent today. The other point, though, on top of that is there's a number of offerings and capabilities that we have within our fluid power business. and across our service center network where there is certainly automation tied to it. So when you combine that on top of that, that certainly would be incremental as well. But it is still probably certainly a lower percentage of the business today, but with the view that that continues to ramp as we continue to build out the network both organically and through acquisitions.

No, that's great detail. I guess what I was really trying to get at is if you look at that, call it $90, $100 million in revenue, whether it's historically or on a go-forward basis, and I know it's tough to compare over the last year, is that part of the business growing faster than the fluid power segment itself? And how additive is that to the organization? And I guess is that also accretive, that $100 million to the fluid power segment?

So I think it can grow at that rate higher, and we've talked from an accretive standpoint. Today, probably more at company average. The potential is to be above that, and so that's our view and what we'll be working towards.

Got it. And then that just leads to my last question. Free cash flow has been outstanding, as you noted. You talked about cash conversion moderating as you return to growth, which is understandable. But just as you think about mix and the growth initiatives, is that creating sustainable changes to the cash flow profile through cycles?

Well, you know, if you look back, right, we're at higher peaks as we go through now, and we think we have continued to improve and mix up our ability from a cash generation standpoint. And we do things internally with shared services and approach, how we leverage technology, We think our effective use of inventory and management in that side. So we do expect it to moderate, but we expect to be performing at a higher level. And in time, we think working capital as a percent of sales can get to the 20%. Got it.

Okay, thanks.

At this time, I'm showing we have no further questions. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Scrimshaw for any closing remarks.

I just simply want to thank everyone for joining us today and your ongoing support, and we look forward to talking with many of you throughout the quarter. Thank you.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.