Allstate Corporation (The)

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Allstate's first quarter earnings investor call. Currently, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After prepared remarks, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session, you'll need to press star 11 on your telephone. If your question has been answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, simply press star 11 again. Please limit your inquiry to one question and one follow-up. As a reminder, please be aware that this call is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Fred Vandermeer, head of investor relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning and welcome to Allstate's first quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Yesterday, following the close of market, we issued our news release and investor supplement, filed our 10-Q, and posted today's presentation, along with our reinsurance update, onto our website at allstateinvestors.com. Our management team is here to provide perspective on these results and our strategy. After prepared remarks, we will have a question and answer session. As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will contain non-GAAP measures for which there are reconciliations in the news release and investor supplement and forward-looking statements about Allstate's operations. Allstate's results may differ materially from these statements, so please refer to our 10-K for 2023 and other public documents for information on potential risks. Before I turn the call over to Tom, I would also like to provide an update on our monthly financial disclosures. Since early 2022, implemented rate actions from the prior month have been included in our monthly release and disclosed on our investor relations website to provide additional transparency on our proactive response to the rapid rise in loss costs. Going forward, our implemented rate disclosures for auto and homeowners insurance will be disclosed on a quarterly basis instead of monthly within our investor supplement. And now I'll turn the call over to Tom.

Well, good morning. Thank you for investing your time and having interest in explaining why Allstate is such an attractive investment opportunity. I'll begin with an overview of the results, and then Mario and Jess are going to walk through the operating performance, and then, as Brent mentioned, after that we'll have time for Q&A. Let's begin on slide two. Allstate's strategy has two components, which are shown on the left there. Increased personal property liability market share and expanded protection provided to customers. On the right-hand side, you can see the highlights for the quarter. So we generated net income of $1.2 billion in the first quarter. The profit improvement was broad-based. It reflects successful execution of the auto insurance profit improvement plan. attractive homeowners insurance margins, and they also benefited from lower catastrophe losses in this quarter. Then investment income was up almost 33%, reflecting the 2022 and 2023 repositioning into longer duration, higher fixed income yields, and then yields also went up some. And we had good performance-based evaluations this quarter as well. Protection services also had a good quarter, and that was led by protection plans and roadside services. If you go down to the bottom, what do we do from here? We have a broad approach to further increase shareholder value. First, improving auto profitability in underperforming states will increase returns. Secondly, we're focused on increasing policies and force under the Allstate brand while continuing to expand national general. Mario's going to talk about that in a few minutes. Allstate's integrated approach to investing has and will continue to create value for shareholders. Expanding protection services will benefit both our customers and shareholders. And then the sale of the health and benefits business to a buyer that can further leverage our success will create more shareholder value. Although I point out it will have a short-term negative impact on return on equity. Let's review the broad-based profit improvement on slide three. So revenues were $15.3 billion in the first quarter, reflecting a 10.9% increase in property liability earned premium. And that, of course, was primarily due to rate increases in both auto and homeowners insurance. Over the last 12 months, property liability rate improvements have increased by almost $5 billion on an annual basis. That investment income in the quarter was $764 million, or 32.9% for the prior year. And that reflects those higher fixed income yields and the duration extension I just mentioned. The strong profitability in the quarter generated adjusted net income of $1.4 billion, or $5.13 per diluted share. Now let me turn it over to Mario to go through property liability results.

Thanks, Tom. Let's start on slide four. Property liability earned premium increased 10.9% in the first quarter, driven by higher average premiums. Underwriting income was $898 million. The combined ratio of 93, which improved by 15.6 points compared to prior year, was driven by higher premiums earned, improved underlying loss cost trends, lower catastrophe losses, and operating efficiencies. The chart on the right depicts the components of the 93 combined ratio. Lower catastrophe losses of $731 million were 8.8 points favorable to the prior year quarter, reflecting milder winter weather. The underlying combined ratio of 86.9 improved by 6.4 points compared to the prior year quarter. The improvement was driven by higher average premium and moderating loss cost increases. Expense reduction programs also benefited results, more than offsetting higher advertising spend. Prior year reserve re-estimates, excluding catastrophes, had only a small impact on results. Favorable development in personal auto and homeowners insurance largely offset increases in personal umbrella liabilities and commercial auto reserves for the transportation network contracts we began exiting in late 2022. Now let's take a closer look at auto insurance profitability on slide five. The first quarter recorded auto insurance combined ratio of 96 improved by 8.4 points compared to the prior year quarter, showing that our profit improvement plan is working. The left chart shows quarterly underlying combined ratios. You will remember we showed this chart last year, which adjusts 2022 and 2023 quarterly reported figures to reflect the updated average severity estimates as of the end of each respective year. As you can see, the underlying combined ratio improved sequentially in each of the last five quarters to 95.1 in the first quarter of 2024. The chart on the right shows that in the first half of 2023, premium increases in dark blue were being offset by higher underlying losses and expenses. Profits began to improve in the third quarter of 2023 as premiums outpaced loss and expense increases, and this continued in this year's first quarter. The slight first quarter drop in underlying loss and expense reflects lower claim frequency that benefited from milder weather and improved operating efficiencies, partially offset by higher severity. Relative to the prior year quarter, average underlying loss and expense in the first quarter of 2024 was 6.7% higher, as you can see at the top of the table. This reflects higher current year and current severity estimates, primarily driven by bodily injury coverage, which was partially offset by lower accident frequency and the favorable impact on current year severity of favorable prior year reserve development in the All-States Rank. Given the impact that good weather had on frequency in the quarter, favorable frequency may not persist as the year progresses. While auto margins have improved due to our profit improvement actions, we remain focused on ensuring that rate levels continue to keep pace with underlying cost trends and driving improved profitability in those states not yet achieving target margins. Slide six shows how auto profit improvement supports pursuing policy growth. As shown on the left, Allstate brand implemented rate increases exceeding 16% in both 2022 and 2023. In the first quarter of 2024, we implemented rate increases of 2.4% to keep up with the cost trends and improve margins in states not achieving target margins. The chart on the right depicts the Allstate brand auto proportion of premium in states with an underlying combined ratio below 96, shown by the dark blue bars. As more states have achieved target returns, we have started to increase marketing investment both nationally and in those states. Slide 7 shows that while all state brand policies and force decreased compared to prior year, albeit a slower rate than last quarter, over half that decline was offset by growth at national general. On the left, you can see that total protection auto policies in force decreased by 2% compared to prior year due to a decline of 5.2% in the Allstate brand, reflecting the continued impact of auto insurance profit improvement actions. Underneath this decline is the positive impact of higher Allstate agent productivity and direct channel sales. Customer retention in the Allstate brand also continued to improve, and that improvement has a significant impact on growth trends. Allstate brand auto retention of 86 improved by 0.3 points compared to prior year, as the negative impact of large rate increases in 2022 and 2023 begins to moderate. As we discussed last quarter, we received approval for rate increases in the profit challenge states of California, New York, and New Jersey, which were affected this quarter. Renewal trends in those states were stable in the first quarter, but the full impact on customer retention has not yet impacted growth. All state brand new business also increased 7% versus the prior year, reflecting more advertising and increased all-state agent productivity and direct sales. National General was another positive to growth. Policies in force increased by 12.6% over the prior year due to an increase in non-standard auto insurance and the continued rollout of a new middle market standard and preferred auto insurance product, also known as Custom 360. Slide 8 summarizes homeowners insurance profitability, which generated strong returns in the quarter. homeowners insurance provides a differentiated customer experience and represents an additional growth opportunity across channels. The chart shows the homeowners combined ratio over time, achieving a 10-year average of approximately 92. The first quarter combined ratio of 82.1 translated to $564 million of underwriting income and improved 36.9 points compared to prior year primarily driven by lower catastrophe losses. The underlying combined ratio of 65.5 also improved by 2.1 points due to higher average premium and lower non-catastrophe claim frequency. All state protection homeowners generated double digit written premium growth compared to prior year, reflecting higher average gross written premium per policy and policies enforced growth of 1.4%. Allstate agents continue to bundle auto and homeowners insurance at historically high levels, and National General's Custom 360 product offers additional growth opportunities in the independent agent channel. Allstate has created an industry-leading business model, and we remain confident in our ability to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns. Moving to slide nine, let's discuss the property liability growth opportunities. Starting on the first row, improving customer retention remains key to improving our growth trajectory. Auto retention levels have stabilized and sequentially improved over the last two quarters and homeowners retention improved 0.8 points to the prior year quarter. Our agents and employees continue to guide customers through the renewal process by offering coverage options and ways to save through innovative programs and discounts like drive-wise and mile-wise telematics offerings. Growth can also be increased by easing new business restrictions. As rate adequacy has been achieved in more states, restrictive underwriting policies have been unwound in states representing more than 75% of all-state brand auto premiums. Increased Allstate brand advertising is also expected to increase growth. The components of transformative growth are being implemented to create sustainable growth. An improved competitive position will result from further expense reductions. Expanded customer access comes from increased Allstate agent productivity, enhanced direct distribution, and the expansion of Custom 360 to more independent agents. A new Allstate brand affordable, simple, and connected auto insurance product is available in nine states on the direct sales side. Online quote completion time has been reduced by 40% to less than three minutes within the new technology ecosystem. This platform will be expanded to the Allstate agent channel this year and to more states and homeowners over the next several years. With these growth levers, Allstate is positioned to generate sustainable, profitable growth. Now I'll turn it over to Jess to talk about other operating results.

Thank you, Mario. Moving to slide 10, let's discuss the increase in investment income. Before we dig into specifics, let me reiterate that our active portfolio management includes comprehensive monitoring of economic conditions, market opportunities, interest rates, and credit spreads by rating, sector, and individual names. We seek to optimize return per unit of risk across the enterprise. This approach to portfolio management continued to benefit results in the quarter. Net investment income, shown in the chart on the left, totaled $764 million in the quarter, which is $189 million above the first quarter of last year. Market-based income of $626 million, shown in blue, was $119 million above the prior year quarter, as the fixed income portfolio continues to benefit from repositioning into longer duration and higher-yielding assets that have sustainably increased income. Performance-based income of $201 million, shown in black, was $75 million above the prior year quarter due to higher valuation increases and was above the trend that we have seen in recent quarters. but lower than 2022. The performance-based portfolio is constructed to enhance long-term returns, and volatility on these assets from quarter to quarter is expected. Total portfolio return of 0.5% for the quarter and 4.8% for the last 12 months, which is shown in the table below the left chart, indicate that a balanced approach to risk and return creates shareholder value. The chart on the right shows changes made to the bond portfolio duration in comparison to interest rates over time. Higher income this quarter reflects increases in duration as interest rates rose in 2022 and 2023. The table below the chart shows fixed income portfolio earned yield was 4.1% at quarter end, a 0.7 point increase compared to 3.4% for the prior year quarter. Slide 11 breaks down the growth and profit performance of the protection service businesses. Revenues in these businesses increased 12.2% to $753 million in the first quarter compared to the prior year quarter. This result is mainly driven by growth in all state protection plans, which increased 20.5% compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting expanded product breadth and international growth. In the table on the right, you will see adjusted net income of $54 million in the first quarter increased $20 million compared to the prior year quarter. The increase was primarily attributable to two businesses. Profitable growth in all state protection plans resulted in adjusted net income of $40 million, representing an increase of $12 million compared to the prior year quarter as higher revenue and improved claims trends benefited the bottom line. Allstate Roadside had adjusted net income of $11 million, driven by increased pricing, improved provider capacity, and lower costs. Shifting to slide 12, the health and benefits business continued to perform well. For the first quarter of 2024, revenues of $635 million increased by $52 million compared to the prior year quarter, driven by premium growth in individual and group health, in addition to higher fees and other revenue in those businesses. Adjusted net income of $56 million in the first quarter was consistent with the prior year quarter as individual health fee income growth was offset by lower employer voluntary benefits income. On slide 13, we'll wrap up our prepared remarks where we started by reiterating Allstate's strategy and opportunities to increase shareholder value. Improving auto insurance profitability, pivoting to growing auto and homeowners policies and force, proactive risk and return management of the investment portfolio, expanding protection services, and completing the sale of health and benefits, which we expect to occur in 2024. With that context, let's open up the line for your questions.

Certainly. And as a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, we ask that you please limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up. You may get back in the queue as time allows. Our first question comes from the line of Jimmy Buller from JP Morgan. Your question, please.

Hey, good morning. So my first question was just on your views on PIF growth. And I realize it's going to be challenging in the near term just given price increases. But with the expense cuts coming through and once you're done with repricing, do you think that it's reasonable to assume that you'll have positive PIF growth beginning sometime later this year or early next year in the auto business?

Jimmy, we do believe that it's time to pivot to growth. that we had to restrict growth so we could get profitability up in the auto insurance business. We're not done with it yet, but we feel that the trajectory is good and we've got a path forward on that. Mario went through the long list of various ways we can do it. First, of course, is just keep more of your existing customers. And then we have a bunch of other ways that we think we can grow new business. When that will actually turn by quarter will be dependent on what happens in the marketplace. But it is, we believe, a really great opportunity to increase shareholder value because when you look at our valuation relative to a higher growth company like Progressive, there's a substantial discount. And we believe that this pivot to growth will drive more shareholder value. Mario, anything you want to add to that?

No, I think that covers it, Tom. The only thing I'd say is, you know, in the Allstate brand, obviously we continue to see the impacts of the profit improvement plan that we've implemented over the last couple of years. But we're starting to see, as Tom mentioned, some positive signs on retention as well as an uptick in production. And, you know, first we need to see sequential growth before we'll get to annual year-over-year growth. And then I think it's important to point out in national general, we continue to see really strong growth in that business, along with really strong profitability that we're encouraged by. And we think there's most of that growth in national generals coming in the nonstandard auto insurance business. We think there's an additive opportunity that we're going to continue to go after, as I mentioned, with custom 360. So opportunity across all brands and all channels going forward.

And can you talk about progress on the benefit sale? Obviously, from the outside, we haven't seen any movement, and then just how you think about the deployment of the proceeds that come out of that sale.

Yeah, Jimmy, this is Jeff.

So as it relates to the process, I would say things are progressing as expected on the Pursuit of the divestiture. You'll remember we announced the intention to pursue the sale about six months ago, almost to the day. And, you know, as you might expect, there was robust interest from a large group of quality potential buyers, both strategic and financial. So, you know, diligence on a large complex business takes some time and so does selecting the right potential buyers to stay involved in the process. At this point, we're pleased with how the process is progressing, and we're confident that we'll be in a position to select a buyer that sees the same potential in the business that we do and is aligned with our strategic rationale for the sale. So we continue to pursue the divestiture, as we said, and obviously we'll let you all know as soon as we have a definitive agreement in place and offer more details at that time.

Jimmy, let me make a comment about the capital. You mentioned that it came up at a number of the... analyst write-ups last night. So first, we're very well capitalized. We've made that point consistently over the last couple of years. Obviously, the divestiture of health and benefits would free up additional capital. We're doing it because we believe it's the right way to harvest value, as Jess pointed out. We think this is a great business that's shown up and that people have been interested in buying it, but we also think that somebody else could do more with it than we can do with it. When you look at capital utilization, I would say that it's embedded in kind of everything we do, like from our strategy to enterprise risk and return to reinsurance to how we price homeowners insurance in a local market. And a couple of things I would say, all those decisions are made with math, highly sophisticated math. So sometimes I think that confuses some people when we have more sophisticated math than things like premium to surplus ratios. But when we do that, we're looking at what the impact is economically and what the impact is on shareholder value. We look at a really wide range of alternatives. The first best opportunity is organic growth. Given the high returns in our auto home protection plan businesses, we get really good returns there. And as I mentioned, we think that will drive increased valuation in the stock per dollar earnings. After that, you said, well, share repurchase. A number of people asked about share repurchases. It's another thing that we look at. As you know, we've bought back a lot of stocks. Since we went public, we've bought back almost $42 billion worth of stock, which is 83% of the shares outstanding. If you look over the last 10 years, it's about half the shares and about $20 billion. If you look over five years, it's a quarter of the shares and about $10 billion. So we have no aversion to that. When you say, well, what kind of return do you get on that? Of course, it depends what price you bought it at and what day you're marking it to market. In its low points, it tends to look like the cost of capital. Today, it looks like it's in the 10% to 14% range, depending what period of time you look at. So that's a good return, one that we think benefits shareholders. On the other hand, it's not as good. is that which we get from deploying it in those businesses. So deploying it in growth is why we believe that we have a whole bunch of other things we look at. We could increase the equity allocation and investment portfolio. As we've told you, we have a bimodal approach there. About 60% is illiquid. We hang on to over ups and downs. And 40% is liquid. We're down at the lowest level we've ever been in liquid equity securities. And we did it because we didn't like the risk in return. We're not trying to be a hedge fund, but we thought we had better places to put the money. We could decide we want to dial up there. Sometimes we put money in new capabilities, Arity. If you look at Arity, we've now got one and a half trillion miles of driving data. We're getting over a billion a week. We're expanding that from just Pricing people who are customers to pricing people before they become customers, which makes you be more efficient in marketing and advertising Sometimes we acquire companies, you know So if you look at our protection plans business It's like ten times its size and we bought it for a billion for you look at national general would be four point one billion I think just and That's like double its size. So I We haven't done as well harvesting the value out of our identity protection business yet, but we're confident we got the right pick there that people are at greater risk. We just need to figure out how to grow it faster and make more money. So we have a whole bunch of opportunities that we look at. So I don't think you should just automatically default to something that falls into an easy analysis of you got the extra money, do you share repurchases? No, we'll think about it hard. we'll do the right thing for shareholders, and then we'll make sure we're communicating with people. Thank you.

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Andrew Klingerman from TD Cowan. Your question, please.

Hey, good morning. Yeah, it seems like you're pif growth is is right around the corner of of of pivoting down only 1.4 percent year over year so i'm wondering on the allstate brand um your your expense ratio on advertising was 2.2 historically if i look back at 2017 to 19 it was roughly 2.5 so is there you know first question is there much to go in terms of your your ad campaigns or or do you feel like you're kind of at a level where you need to be.

I'll let Mario talk about how he's reorganizing the business and really going to market in an integrated fashion to drive growth. As it relates to advertising, we don't like to give those numbers out just because we've got other people out there doing their advertising as well. What I will point out is one of the key components of transformer growth was improving our sophistication of customer acquisition. So no matter what percentage it is, we want it to be more effective. But, Mari, maybe you should talk about how you're changing your go-to-market.

Yeah, thanks for the question, Andrew. I guess where I'd start, first, the good news, as we pointed out in the presentation, is more and more states are achieving rate adequacy. And right now, you know, in about 75% of the states we operate in, we've began to unwind underwriting restrictions, and to your point, begin investing in marketing to look to grow. The other thing we've done in anticipation of that opportunity, not only being there but continuing to expand, is we're organizing ourselves in what we call go-to-market teams that are local market focused, that are really intended to drive kind of bottoms-up opportunity identification and capture, again, at the local market level so that we can get the highest possible return on things like the marketing investments we're making, the continued expansion of distribution, as well as the growth opportunity that exists across channels in those states. So we're early days in that, but we're putting behind our organization structure to be more focused on local market growth. And you remember, we manage this business state by state, market by market. So having local market insight, intelligence, and the ability to move rapidly across to capture opportunities is really going to be critical. And we think that alongside the expanded investment we're making in growth will create significant growth opportunity for us going forward.

And we know that it works because we've used it for a long time. And we dismantled some of it about two or three years ago when we were cutting expenses and didn't want to grow. And now that we're back into growth mode, we're just expanding what we know works.

That's very helpful. And then the second question with regard to national general, just trying to get my arms around how much growth potential there. How much of the book right now is non-standard versus the custom 360? Is the custom 360 relatively very small? And are those the right agents to generate big time growth on the more traditional or more standard products?

Well, we wouldn't give out the percentage in each, but you're correct in that when we bought National General, it was mostly a non-standard company. And we bought it for the strategic opportunity to leverage our capabilities in what's called preferred auto and home insurance. And that's turning out to be true. Mario, maybe you want to talk about the success you're having with Custom 360.

Yeah. So, Andrew, I guess the place I'd start is, first of all, we're really happy with the acquisition of National General. As Tom mentioned, we've effectively doubled the size of our independent agent business since we bought it in early 2021. And there's really three pieces to the business. There's the non-standard auto piece, which is by far the biggest component. And then there's what we call the legacy household business, which is think about our Encompass business that we integrated into it along with the legacy National General Standard Auto Preferred and Home business. And then there's Custom 360. And Custom 360 is the new product offering. We're in about 17 states currently with the intent to expand Custom pretty much into every state by the end of this year or into 2025. And we think that really represents an additive growth opportunity. The product offering itself is built on the all-state product chassis. So think about the, you know, sophisticated rating plans that we have. in standard and preferred auto in Allstate, the house and home product that we have in Allstate. So those are the products that we're launching in the independent agent channel. And really, to your point, there's a different distribution, a different segment of the independent agent distribution system that we're looking to engage with to really grow that product portfolio. We're early stages. As I said, we're in 17 states. We're really encouraged by the early growth that we're seeing in the states that we've rolled out and, more importantly, the agency engagement we're seeing on the IA side. We're going to continue to look to expand on that and leverage that going forward, but we're really optimistic around Custom 360 and the opportunity beyond non-standard auto in the IA channel.

Thanks a lot.

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters from Raymond James. Your question, please.

Well, good morning, everyone. So for the first question, I'd like to just have you comment on both frequency and severity frequency trends. through the first quarter and sort of how you're thinking about severity for 2024, both inside the Allstate brand and also at NatGen?

Thanks, Greg. This is Mario. I'm going to make some comments off the slide, off of slide five that we showed you in the presentation, which really shows the, you know, starts with the average underlying loss and expense trend that we saw in the quarter. That number is about 6.7%. If you take out the expense component, it drops by over a point. So I'd say the loss trend we're seeing in the protection business is in the mid fives. And that's made up of both frequency and severity. As we indicated, frequency relative to last year, just given the milder weather, was favorable. And then the other component of it, is severity. So I'd say favorable frequency more than offset by higher severity. But severity is continuing to moderate in terms of the rate of increase that we're seeing. Maybe a little bit of color underneath severity broadly, because really there's two different emerging stories, both in physical damage and in injury and physical damage. You know, we continue to see the benefit of things like lower used car prices, total loss severity continues to drop, but it continues to cost more to fix cars. And that's made up of continually increasing parts prices and labor costs. So we've seen increasing severity and physical damage for repairable vehicles, but not at the same rate we have been seeing before. That has moderated. The real ongoing severity pressure is on the injury side, which continues to run at higher than historical levels. That's driven by a lot of the things we've been talking about, you know, medical treatments, medical consumption, inflation. It's also being driven by the fact that more of our customers continue to get sued and attorney representation levels continue to increase. And that's putting pressure on severity. It's also resulting in higher costs for consumers, ultimately. The cost to settle injury claims going up at the level that it is is translating into higher insurance prices for consumers. I point out a state like Florida. where last year they passed meaningful tort reform. And we're starting to see some positive impacts of that tort reform, which I think will bode well for consumers going forward. The Georgia legislature just passed some tort reform, which, again, can be a positive for consumers going forward. And obviously, we're a strong proponent of that kind of reform broadening across more states going forward. But Greg, to your question, positive frequency in the quarter, hard to quantify with any degree of precision what the weather was worth, but it was favorable. Offset with severity levels that are running lower than they had been running, but still at positive levels, which is why we're going to stay on top of pricing to make sure that our rates are fully reflect loss trends and keep pace with loss trends in the states that we've reopened for growth and continue to pursue rates in states where we haven't achieved target profitability yet. And that would be true both in the Allstate brand and National General.

Thanks for that detail. I guess, you know, in conjunction with that answer, you know, you brought up rate, and I know you mentioned that you're not going to provide us updates on pricing going forward because you're rate adequate. I know if you go back to previous presentations, you've called out three states and even after you reported fourth quarter, you still were, I think New Jersey and New York were kind of still in the question mark period. Has there been some updates there in those two states that you want to give us that leads you to believe that they're rate adequate now too as well?

Let Mario go into the three states, but I just want to clarify. We decided not to give it to you every month because we think you get the drill, you know what we're doing, and we don't need to do it. We didn't say we're rate adequate and so don't worry about it. We're always focused on it. We just didn't think we needed to burden people with sending it out every month, that's all.

Yeah, Greg, Sumario, I'll just give you a little more color on those three states. Remember last quarter we told you we had just gotten approval in the fourth quarter for auto rate increases in all three of those states. In California, and we implemented those rate increases this past quarter, in California we feel comfortable of where the rate level is with the increase, and we've reopened California for new business. really no change in New York and New Jersey in terms of our underwriting risk appetite even with the rate approvals that we got late last year we still don't feel like we're at the appropriate rate level to want to grow in those two states the only update I give you on one of the states is New Jersey recently approved a thirteen point nine percent auto rate increase which was one of the filings we had pending that'll be effective in the second half of this year we're still going to need more rate beyond that before we would look to reopen that market and in New York we're having ongoing conversations around a pending rate that's with the department but really nothing new to report at this point and in those two states in particular we have not you know lifted any of the underwriting restrictions that we have in place got it thank you for the detail

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Bob Chien-Huong from Morgan Stanley. Your question, please.

Hi, good morning. Maybe just going back to the PIF growth and rates. For slide six, if we look at the states that are above 96% combined ratio, I know that you talked about New York, New Jersey, California. But are there any other, you know, reasonably large states where you continue to need rates? And in those states, are you, like comparing to your peers, is your loss ratio significantly above everyone else? Or in other words, if you were to raise rates in those states, do the customers have anywhere else to go?

Well, that's a complicated question. Let me see if I can address it. So in all states, when you have severities going up the way Mario described it, you're going to be increasing rates at levels above what is the general inflation rate. So we expect to continue to have to do that if our customers quit getting sued every time they get in an accident. then maybe it'll back off some. So we're always moving rate up. You're really getting to where is your competitive position. And I think it's difficult right now to determine where one's competitive position is in any individual state, given how rapidly rates are moving and how they're moving through books of business. So that said, we're confident that with transformative growth, by reducing our expenses, we'll end up in a lower cost, more competitive position than when we started this four years ago, whatever it was. It's just this blip in here where everyone's raising prices a lot, including us. As Mario pointed out, in auto alone, it was 16% each of the last two years. Homeowners, it's slightly lower, but also has the same trends to it. We feel confident that the product offering we have, the technology we have, the agents we have, the broad set of distribution that will enable us to grow, price is clearly an important part of that. And we're focused on making sure we're competitive, but we're not going to not take rates so that we can grow. One of our big competitors, State Farms, picked up almost a couple points of market share over the last couple years. because they chose to run fairly large underwriting losses, that won't be us.

Okay, thank you. That's very helpful. But just curious, are there any other relatively large states outside of New York, New Jersey, California, where you still need rates at this point in time?

No, if you go back to page six that you mentioned, the top bar on the right, the 26%, the vast majority of that is those three states, California, New York, and New Jersey. And then both the light blue and the dark blue, when you kind of add those together, and we talked about unwinding underwriting restrictions in about three-quarters of the states. Again, we base those decisions on rate adequacy versus kind of a backward-looking combined ratio, and we feel good about where we're positioned, the growth opportunity, and as we said a couple times, we're going to stay on top of the loss trend in those states. The states that are in that top section are the ones that we're going to continue to push incremental rate through because we're not at target margins yet. Okay, excellent. Thank you.

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Elise Greenspan from Wells Fargo. Your question, please.

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question is on the auto, you know, I guess it's more on the underlying loss ratio. You know, I thought in the past, right, the first quarter, you know, would seasonally be a better quarter, you know, for just an auto book in general, but understanding, you know, rate increases that can earn in can kind of mask that as we go through the year. And then I'm also not sure if there was maybe some favorable non-cat you know weather in the q1 numbers so just can you give us a sense of the cadence would you expect um the underlying loss ratio within auto to improve as we go through the year given the rate to earn in or is there some seasonality or other factors that we need to consider let me start you can jump in um first you're correct in that first quarter is usually a better quarter in combined ratio in auto insurance than uh like the summer months when everybody's driving

to be able to do attribution of this current quarter versus other quarters and whether and how much, you know, what the sustainable is really difficult to get it with any sort of precision. It's not that we don't try and we look at it and we come up with numbers, but they're not numbers that I would say would be for public consumption. What I would say is we feel really good about the trend in auto insurance profitability. As you point out, we've got a lot more rates still coming through. We've gotten good control over our expenses. We're working hard on claims to try to deal with high inflationary environment, make sure we keep costs down and not just accept that they have to go up at high single digits. So we feel really good about the trend, at least. I don't know that I feel like one quarter makes a trend in that I would say in this first quarter X percent was due to just some anomaly. Mario, anything you would add to that?

Yeah, I think at least the components you mentioned are the right ones. And while I can't, you know, I'm not going to give you the guidance on continually improving, loss ratio going forward. What we do know are a handful of things. Number one, we took over 16 points of rate last year and another 2.4 points in the first quarter. That's going to continue to earn through the book, and you're going to continue to see average earn premium growth going forward. That's just based on the actions we've taken so far. I talked a little bit about the loss trend earlier and where that was running. We'll see how that plays out over the duration of the year. The only other piece I'd give you is the frequency component of that. There clearly is a weather benefit we got difficult to quantify, so the frequency benefit may or may not persist going forward. That would be the only thing in addition to just the Q1 seasonality that exists, but we feel good about where the earned premium trend is going, and then we're obviously going to watch both components of the loss trend, and we're going to continue to push hard-on expenses to drive costs out of the system, which will also help from a margin perspective.

Thanks. And then my second question, you know, going back to earlier comments on the health and benefits transaction, is your plan still to expect to announce and close the transaction this year? And then I think based on your comments to a prior question, you implied, right, that there was conversations with parties. It sounds like you're going down the route of one counterparty instead of perhaps maybe multiple. But can you just confirm, I guess, that that's that's a thought as well, just to find out? one counterparty to, you know, buy the entirety of the business.

You know, it's a normal process, Elise. We're not going to go through, you know, blow by blow on it. We still think we'll sell it this year. A lot of people are interested in the business and we're confident we made the right choice.

Thank you.

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kanar from Jefferies. Your question, please.

Thank you. Good morning. Most of my questions have been asked, but I did want to dig a little deeper into NatGen, if I could, and the PIF growth there. So I understand you have the custom 360 that should drive further growth. At the same time, are we also seeing maybe some competitive pressures rising in non-standard auto? which may actually result in a little bit of a decrease in that segment's growth. Maybe you can help us think through the two combined.

I'll let Mario jump in. I know you're probably referring to Kemper's numbers. I'll let Mario jump in on standard. But let me just mention something I think kind of we talk about, but I'm not sure it gets as much focus as I think it should, which is homeowners. The homeowner's business is a really attractive business for us. We're really good at it. We have an integrated business model that you can see, Mario showed this slide, where we've earned a 92 combined ratio over a 10-year period. The industry dynamics today, a lot of that business is sold through independent agents, about half of it, and industry dynamics are right for us to leverage that position. a great interest in independent agents in having what they call markets or we would call availability. And when you look at why that is, you know, this is the first customer risks are increasing, right, whether that's inflation in home values, whether that's demographic trends, people moving in the way of where there's severe weather or just increased severe weather. So there's increased need for risks. And then at the same time, the industry's lost money. So the industry lost money over the last three years, last five years. Over the last 10 years, it made money, but we made about three quarters of that money. So industry made about $10 billion over a 10-year period, and we made about 75% of that. So we're really good at it. We think that one of the ways to grow there is in the independent agent channel is by leveraging our homeowners. So we obviously can grow in homeowners in the Allstate agent channel. You see that with our bundling stuff, whether you look at any of the industry reports, we're really good at bundling there. And you see the PIF growth there even when auto growth is going down, which wasn't always the case. They used to trend more together, but we've gotten so much better at bundling. I don't want to leave homeowners on the cutting room floor as it relates to growth both in the national general channel and the all-state channel. Mario, do you want to talk about non-standard?

Yeah, thanks for the question, Jeroen. Look, where I'd start is the national general non-standard auto business is a really well-run business for us, and when we acquired Matt Chen several years ago, it allowed us to get into a business that Allstate was not in at that time in a particularly meaningful way. And we've been able to grow that pretty aggressively and grow it profitably over the last several years. some of the ways we've been able to expand is we've expanded geographically. So we're in a lot more states with non-standard auto now than when we bought the business. We've also expanded from a channel perspective. We allow all state agents to sell non-standard auto through national general for business that's outside of all states risk appetite. We sell it direct to consumers. So we've been able to expand the business both geographically as well as across channels. And, you know, The business has been subject to the same inflationary pressures that the standard and preferred auto business has been subject to. But we've stayed on top of rate need. We've taken a lot of rate over the last couple of years. I believe over 15 points the last 12 months. So we've stayed on top of the rate need. It's a business that you can effectively reprice most of the book, almost every policy period, just given the defection rates. And we've been able to, over the last couple of years, take advantage of the competitive dislocation in non-standard auto. as a number of carriers have backed off from that business. We've taken advantage of that opportunity and taken advantage of by leveraging our capabilities in that space. And, you know, as much as the competition might be heating up there, we feel really good about our capabilities, and we're going to continue to look to grow that business, as well as the standard preferred in homeowners that Tom talked about with Custom 360.

Thank you. Very, very comprehensive.

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of David from Evercore ISI. Your question, please.

Hi, thanks. Good morning. I had a question just on the brand auto PIF. So the brand auto PIF was down about a percent and a half compared to the fourth quarter. And I guess I'm wondering how, and that was for the entire book, the entire brand auto book. I guess I'm wondering how that PIF growth trended versus the fourth quarter in the 64% of the book that is at target margins that you showed on slide six. Are you guys growing PIF in that part of the book?

We wouldn't break those numbers out for a competitor.

When it's big enough so, David, you could do math on it, so you could say, okay, here's when the turn is going to come, we would say it. But obviously there are some markets we're growing in, other markets we're not growing in. Some of those are markets. Some of those are states. When we get to the point where you can do the math to show when – I totally get where you're going, because you want to figure out when the turn is, but – We don't like to show what states we're growing in at higher rates than others because then that gets our competitors interested in going to those states, and we'd rather grow without having them be aware of where we're growing.

No, understood. It was worth a shot anyway. Just another question. Just on the agent productivity, you gave some interesting stats last quarter that agent productivity was up 6%, excluding California, New York, New Jersey. I'm just wondering how the productivity looked this quarter. Did that improve significantly or just how to think about that as a potential growth driver?

Let me go up to transformative growth and get my way to talk about the specifics of your question. So as part of transformative growth, we said we want to improve customer value. And that meant getting our agents to really focus on their work, those things that customers really want them to do for them, which includes helping them buy insurance. It doesn't necessarily include having them there when they have to pay a bill for retention. They will pay for that, but they won't pay as much as they will for when they get the new business. So we shifted our compensation program to move to lower our costs for customers and better align it with what customers want to pay for. As a result of that, we've both lowered distribution expense and we've had some agents who were had built business models on higher retention leave us. So our overall agent capacity in the Allstate brand has gone down. That said, to your point, productivity has gone up, and so our overall volume has been even better when you adjust for those three states that are not to be named. So, Mario, do you want to go there?

Yeah. Thanks for the question. I think the short answer to your question is yes. When you look at overall Allstate brand new business production is up about 6.5%. It was up both in the Allstate exclusive agent channel as well as direct. And then if you kind of carve out California, New York and New Jersey, because you have to remember the California rate wasn't effective until February. So we really didn't start opening things back up until the really the latter part of the quarter. We're really pleased with how our agents. are responding to the changes we've made that Tom talked about, continue to invest in their businesses, continuing to drive higher levels of average productivity. And despite the fact that we have fewer agents and have restricted or had been restricting growth in three pretty significant states, overall productivity is increasing and absolute production is up. So we're really happy with the productivity levels of our agents. And as we look to accelerate growth going forward, they're going to be a core part of how we grow prospectively in addition to things we've been talking about with independent agents and the direct channel.

Got it. Thank you. Thank you. Well, Jonathan, we'll take one more question. Certainly. And our final question for today comes from the line. of Mike Zaremski from BMO. Your question, please.

Hey, great. Thanks for putting me in. I guess just, I know there's been a lot of talk about growth and, you know, the strategy has been clear. You guys have successfully kind of transformed your expense ratio lower, which would help grow a direct-to-consumer channel specifically. And I know also it has a ton of marketing expertise, but I'm just kind of curious, you know, the direct-to-consumer customer, my understanding is a bit different than the average current all-state customer. So, you know, are there any different strategies or, you know, maybe you kind of or just go slow to learn as you kind of grow into D2C or anything you'd like to, you think we should be thinking about there?

Yes.

First, the direct customer does have different needs, so they don't necessarily want to pay for someone to help them buy insurance, which is why we price our direct insurance under the Allstate brand cheaper than Allstate-branded insurance bought through an agent because we're trying to do exactly what our customers want. They also have different ways they want to interact with us, and so with our new Transformer Growth, our new tech stack, It's really everything from what's pre-populated into the thing to the offers it presents to you to the questions you're required to. As Mario talked about, we're down 40% in the quote time. We've been able to add other products to that flow and so increase things like roadside services and sell more products, which lowers our acquisition costs. So it is different. We're good at it. We could be better at it. And so we're working at getting better at it. About two years ago, we really reformed the business, put some new leadership in place, and then are updating everything from the technology I talked about to also who you market to. So you mentioned, you know, they're direct customers, but some of the customers directly, that's who you go to. Like if you go to people who are shopping all the time, then you will get higher risk drivers because they shop all the time as opposed to lower risk drivers don't shop as much. So it costs more to get the lower risk drivers on board. So we're working through how do we expand that. We believe that the direct channel has tremendous upside with us to serve those customers who want it that way. Not just in auto insurance, but things like home insurance and And whether it's protection plans or what we're doing, we've got some stuff going on in the commercial space with direct. So we think it's just another way that consumers will interact. Not a lot of homeowners are sold over direct. We'll see how successful we are. I believe we can. I mean, people buy houses direct. So if you buy a house, you'll probably buy home insurance from us. And so there's a great upside. You will notice that when you look over the last couple of years, one of the first places we dialed down new business was in the direct channel. So it was down like 50 or 60%, I think, in 23 months or something like that. We wanted to make sure we maintained our agent force levels of compensation because they have businesses run and this is the revenue that comes into their business. We said, okay, well, if this is a temporary window, it's easier for us to concentrate that reduction in new business in the direct channel than it is to spread it amongst a bunch of agents who are now also trying to get through a new comp plan. That turned out to be a good choice. It gave us the opportunity to build new capabilities and now we're hitting the gas out of expanding direct. So you should expect to see our direct volume go up higher as a percentage of new business than it has been in the past. Thank you all for joining us and investing your time in Allstate. We'll talk to you next quarter.

This concludes the investor call. You can now disconnect. Good day.