Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Ordinary Shares

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stephen Lyons, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for ARDA Metal Packaging's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the fourth quarter and the full year. I'm joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer, and Stefan Schellinger, AMP's Chief Financial Officer. Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. AMP's earnings release and related materials for the fourth quarter can be found on AMP's website at ir.ardametalpackaging.com. Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially in such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release. I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

Thanks, Stephen.

So 2024 represented a successful year for our business as we delivered a double-digit adjusted EBITDA increase underpinned by 3% growth in global volumes. Our growth drove improved capacity utilization and fixed cost recovery, while the business achieved stronger input cost recovery than anticipated and delivered further operational cost improvements. Europe's adjusted EBITDA performance was consistently strong, AMP demonstrating good volume growth as the industry recovered from customer destocking in the prior year. Our performance in the Americas was resilient, with a higher adjusted EBITDA despite temporary customer filling location issues in Brazil and softness in the energy category in North America. Our actions on liquidity and strong adjusted EBITDA generation resulted in AMP ending the year with nearly 1 billion of liquidity and a reduced net leverage ratio of 4.9 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA. In the fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA grew by 11% versus the prior year to $164 million. Our performance was positively impacted by higher than forecast sales volumes and production in Europe with a particularly strong end to the quarter. America's performance was broadly in line with our expectations, supported by an encouraging improvement in monthly volumes through the quarter in Brazil and strong operating cost performance in North America. Across our global footprint, the beverage can continues to gain share in our customers' packaging mix. While we're still in a challenging consumer environment, the advantages support our expectation for industry shipments growth into 2025, and we're encouraged by our start to the year. We're confident that we can drive further growth in adjusted EBITDA in 2025 through increased shipments and further improvements to capacity utilization, as well as operational improvements, all of which more than offset some inflationary pressures and currency headwinds in Europe. We also made strong progress towards our sustainability agenda in the year, including the publication of our first roadmap report, highlighting how our scope three emissions, which represent the majority of AMP's overall greenhouse gas emissions, fell below the 2030 target level in 2023, reflecting the successful implementation of our strategy and the overall industry's strong progress on decarbonization. We signed agreements for a solar project in Germany and a virtual power purchase agreement in Portugal, both of which significantly advanced our progress towards our renewable electricity targets. And finally, we were delighted to record a reduction in both our overall total recordable incident rate and accident severity rates in 2024, something that is critical for us. I turn now to AMP's fourth quarter results by segment. In Europe, revenue increased by 27% to $552 million, or 22% on a constant currency basis compared with the same period in 2023, principally due to favorable volume mix effects in the past year of higher input costs to customers. Shipments grew by a strong 8% for the quarter ahead of expectations, with a particularly strong end to the quarter. For the year as a whole, shipments grew by over 4%, which represents an encouraging return to growth following customer destocking in the second half of 2023. Growth in the year was broad-based, both in category and by geography. Customers continued to prioritize the beverage can in their packaging mix, reflecting both the can's competitiveness and its sustainability advantages. We expect this to continue as evidenced by customers' own investments and Europe's various sustainability regulations. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 81% to $56 million, or by 70% on a constant currency basis due to positive volume growth and stronger input cost recovery. A strong performance in 2024 and a positive early start to the year gives us confidence to project shipments growth of 3% to 4% for 2025. Capacity remains tight in the region, but the continued ramp-up of our more recently installed capacity will support this growth. Turning to the Americas, revenue in the fourth quarter decreased by 7% to $653 million, which reflected unfavorable volume mix effects partly offset by the pass-through of higher input costs to customers. America's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter decreased by 8% to $108 million due to lower volumes, principally due to the prior mentioned customer mix issue in Brazil and the softness in the North America energy category, partly offset by lower operating costs. In North America, shipments declined by 2% for the quarter and grew by over 3% for the year. Our quarter decline in shipments was in line with our expectations and reflected temporary softness in the energy category, as well as a strong prior year comparable. In both the fourth quarter and across the year, we saw good growth in both carbonated soft drinks and sparkling waters, which combined represent circa 60% of our portfolio, as well as growth arising from share gains in mass beer, which represents only a small percentage of our North America portfolio. Our diverse portfolio in North America is heavily skewed towards faster-growing non-alcoholic categories. Customer innovation continues to favor the beverage can, and the can continues to take share of the overall packaging mix. We've also seen some signs of stability in the energy category, which gives us confidence that our shipments can grow at least by low single digits in 2025. In Brazil, fourth quarter beverage can shipments decreased by 15%, which primarily reflected a specific customer mix filling location issue. We were encouraged by the improvement in monthly volumes towards the end of the quarter, and we would note that shipments excluding this customer grew by 7%. Full-year shipments were similarly affected by the specific customer issue decreasing by 5%. The Brazilian beverage can industry also experienced lower growth in Q4, though with some improvements in December. As a result, the full-year growth percentage dropped into the mid to high single-digit range after the double-digit growth in the first part of the year. Balancing our overall positive outlook for the market and the broad strength of our customer portfolio with some appropriate caution after the events of the second half of 2024, we're confident in at least a low single-digit percentage growth for our Brazilian business in 2025. And therefore, between North America and Brazil, we also expect shipments growth in the Americas of at least a low single-digit percentage in 2025. I'll hand over to Stefan to talk you through some remarks on our financial position before finishing today's with some concluding remarks.

Thanks, Olli, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. We end the year with a robust liquidity position of close to 1 billion in line with our expectation that includes a seasonal working capital inflow in the fourth quarter. Net leverage at the end stood at 4.9 net debt over adjusted EBDR, which represents a meaningful reduction compared to the prior year of 5.5 times. Our liquidity position benefited from the signing of an unrun Brazilian credit facility in Q4 for around $80 million. We note that in addition to our strong liquidity position, we have no near-term bond maturity. As we have previously indicated, AMP's capital structure is structurally separate from other groups. AMP generated an adjusted free cash flow of $204 million in 2024 compared to $260 million in the prior year. The modest decrease was mainly driven by a lower working capital inflow, which was partly offset by a significant reduction in our growth investment capex. We expect a small outflow in working capital for the financial year 2025. Our growth investments in 2024 reduced to 68 million, and on the basis of current investment plans, we expect this to reduce slightly in 2025 to approximately $40 million. In terms of other cash flow items, we broadly expect the following for 2025. Cash interest to increase to just over 200 million. Lease principal repayments of approximately 105 million. Tax to increase to close to 50 million, given that previously available tax losses have been utilized, and we expect fewer tax reasons being in 2025. Maintenance capex of around 135 million. and small exceptional cash outflows in the order of high single-digit millions. We have today announced our quarterly ordinary dividend of 10 cents per share to be paid later in March in line with guidance and support of our robust closing liquidity position. There's no change to our capital allocation policy.

With that, I'll hand it back to Olli. Thanks, Stefan.

So just recapping on our performance and key messages before the Q&A, adjusted EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter of 11% was ahead of expectations. This was driven by a strong performance in Europe, and that was a consistent feature through the year. Fully year-adjusted DARA of $672 million was strongly ahead of our initially projected $630 million to $660 million range, and this was despite softness in the North American energy category and a customer mix filling location issue in Brazil, both of which have shown recent improvement. and our actions on liquidity and strong cash flow performance resulted in a robust year-end liquidity position of nearly $1 billion. Our current view of the market leads us to project global shipment growth for AMP in 2025 in a range of 2% to 3%, and full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $675 to $695 million. Our EBITDA guidance is supported by higher shipments and improved fixed cost absorption, partly offset by some inflationary pressures in Europe and currency headwinds, Based on prevailing rates, FX represents a circa $9 million headwind versus the prior year. In terms of guidance for the first quarter, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of between $140 and $145 million ahead of the prior year of $132 million on a constant currency basis. So having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to any questions.

And ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our question or equipment. Again, press star one to ask a question. We will pause for just a moment to allow everyone the opportunity to signal for a question. Our first question comes from Stefan Diaz with Morgan Stanley.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So maybe my first one is on tariffs. So obviously, you know, LME and the associated premium is a pass-through for you all. But can you provide additional details on how you're thinking about the potential implications on demand?

Sure. Yeah. So we're very consistent with the other commentary that you've seen in the market in the last week or two. So, you know, the first thing to say, I think, is that we see a relatively small impact on the total retail price of the can, certainly less than one cent. And therefore, you know, that's if it's all passed on to the consumer, which, you know, given the amount of inflation we've seen in can pricing in the U.S. in the last few years is a relatively small number. We do see that in 2025, a lot of this should have been hedged, and therefore there should be less impact in 2025. And as you say, from our perspective, it's pretty much a pass-through in any case. So in terms of our numbers, it's not touching them. So I've seen commentary saying maybe there's some indirect impact on demand. I guess that could be true, but I have to admit, from our perspective, we regard that as a pretty marginal impact.

Perfect. Thanks for the color. And then maybe if you could dig into your Americas results a little bit. Obviously, you called out the customer-specific headwind in Brazil and some energy weakness in North America. Maybe how are those headwinds sort of shaping out in the quarter so far in 2025? And do you expect those headwinds to resolve quickly? quickly here in 2025 as well. Thank you.

No, yeah, good question. So look, I think on the bill side, we mentioned it in the remarks, but we already saw improvement in Q4. So in December, we already saw a good recovery in those volumes, and that recovery has persisted into January and February. So I think We're very encouraged by the way that situation has resolved at the moment and would hope that would continue through this year. And then similarly on the energy category in North America, there was clearly improvement towards the end of the year. I think we suffered a bit more than the total market in our mix from what we can see, because actually We could see some improvement on the retail data on the energy category already in Q4. And we do see that in our numbers as we go into Q1, that there is recovery in the energy category. So I think, you know, we're hopeful for 2025 that both those issues have worked their way through.

Great. Thank you so much. I'll turn it over.

Thanks, Stefan. And our next question comes from Josh Spector with UBS.

Yeah. Hi. Good morning, guys. I wanted to ask on your forecast around growth. I think when you're talking about the U.S. specifically, you said low single digit percent, but you said you could potentially I think it's a minimum of low single digit percent. Sorry. So curious that there's areas where you had more optimism or visibility now or if that was maybe I'm reading into that too much.

No, I don't think you're reading too much. I mean, I think that, you know, this energy category piece is a key part. So obviously, we're feeling positive about that with what we're seeing at the beginning of the year. I think we're seeing strength in other parts of the portfolio, carbonated soft drinks, alcoholic cocktails. So, you know, we still remain, you know, positive about the North American beverage can market. And I think if you If you go back five years and you look at average growth, it's in that 2% range on average. Obviously, it went up a lot, then bumped along a bit as we'd sort of overgrown in the first part of that period. But we didn't lose that growth. And the drivers of that growth that we saw from 2018, 2019 onwards, which is the sustainability piece with some reduction in the focus on plastics and the innovation, they're still in place. And although there's a little bit of commentary around now with tariffs and and other market remarks about plastics, we think that, you know, there's still a drive towards not over-investing and over-prioritizing plastics relative to cans. And that's all we need because, you know, when the American, North American can market was flat, it was because PET was growing at the expense of cans by, you know, 3% a year we were down. That's no longer true. And we see that actually, again, CSD is in positive growth at the beginning of this year. So, You know, I think a low single digits for the market is a very realistic number. We think we've got aspects of our portfolio that mean we could be a tick ahead of that, but we're not calling that by a huge amount. But we're certainly positive about North America for this year.

Thanks. And somewhat related, I guess, on the energy category specifically, there's been some recent M&A in this space, and I don't know if you could just characterize Are some of those changes good or bad for you? Does that increase your share with some existing customers and pull volumes in, or is there a risk of some diversification from that?

Yeah, we don't see any risk. You know, they're both good market players. I mean, we obviously have relationships with many people in the energy space. It's a strong space for us, so we don't see any risk to us from that, nor do we see any particular upside from it at this point. We don't know. But so, yeah, it looks like a good deal, both strong brands, and I'm sure they'll do very well.

Okay, thank you. Thanks.

And our next question comes from Anthony Petanari with Citi.

Good morning. Good morning. Looking at your 25 outlook, assuming you achieve your volume growth targets, is it possible to say where that would leave your utilization rates in North America and Europe? And then maybe more broadly, if you could comment on how industry supply-demand feels in those two regions, if it is tight, loose, balanced, how you'd characterize it?

Sure, Anthony. So, yeah, North America, I think we still have some fairly permanently contained capacity in North America. So I think we'll be running in the mid-90s. It feels pretty tight at the moment, to be honest. And I think the market overall is relatively balanced with the sorts of actions that we're taking, also being taken by other market participants. So I think the industry probably is in the low 90s. relatively naturally and then into the mid and even high 90s with those types of curtailment. And as I said, at the minute for us, the market feels quite tight. I think if we look at commercial activity, there's clearly capacity around, but we're not seeing anything that concerns us too much. So I think North America in a reasonable place. And Europe feels pretty tight as well and did all through last year, particularly continental. I think there's more capacity in the UK, but on the continent, Through the whole year, we had regional shortages. We had shortages on certain sizes, particularly specialty. And we don't see that changing much into this year because, you know, we've seen that other players, you know, we're all ramping some of the legacy capacity that we've already put in, but we're not seeing particularly new capacity coming to market. you know, apart from those ramp-ups. So with the growth that we're seeing, and again, the first two months have been strong in Europe, we think that that market's going to feel pretty tight through the year. And Brazil, yeah, I think there's capacity around. Again, it's been curtailed pretty strongly in certain places, including by us in the northeast. And with that, I think the market's, you know, relatively balanced, sort of probably in the 90s. percent area. And again, we actually had shortages last year in certain locations and sizes because Brazil is such a big country. You can get that kind of effect. So overall, if we look across our business, it feels like all three markets are in a decent place.

OK, that's very helpful. And then just on Europe, I'm curious on glass to metal substitution. Given the strength that you and others have had in Europe, is that something that is accelerating? Are there specific product categories or geographies where you're really seeing a shift into cans? And is it, I don't know, cost of living crisis or maybe change in consumer taste? I'm just wondering... if that's really changed or accelerated or there's anything you kind of pinpoint on glass-to-metal substitution in Europe specifically?

Sure.

I think there's a long-term glass-to-metal substitution in Europe, as we've seen two-way bottle systems declining and one-way packaging increasing and the can taking share. So, you know, if you look at the growth in Germany after the can was reduced to very low share in the early 90s, and 2000s, you know, that recovery is significantly about glass substitution as well as plastic substitution. And then I think the piece that's given that some extra impetus in the last couple of years is the price of energy, obviously much more significant in glass than in metal. And so that has meant you know, some competitive differential between the two substrates. And that was mitigating, I think, in the second half of last year. But now energy prices are strengthening slightly, not a huge amount, but they've not continued to come down in the last few months. And so I think the cash does continue to maintain some competitiveness advantage off the back of that. And actually, if you look at our the way our PPI rates are running in Europe, which are negative. So, pass-through on the can is really low at the moment in terms of price pass-through to customers. The can is remaining very competitive in the mix, I think. So, that, with the sustainability advantages, there's a very clear roadmap for the can to decarbonize, which, again, much higher than other substrates. I think that's driving driving the PACNIC share, the gains that we're seeing. And that was very consistent through the year, and we would anticipate that continuing through 25 and beyond. Okay.

That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

Thanks, Anthony.

And our next question comes from Arun. This one, Nathan, with RBC Capital Markets.

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I guess, Saf, So maybe I'll ask about North American demand. Maybe you can just run through some of the categories. We've obviously seen some weakness in beer. Do you expect that to persist and maybe potentially even get worse in the threat of Mexican tariffs? And then what about energy and non-alcoholic as you see it evolving over the next year? Thanks.

Sure. So I think I mentioned that I think carbonated soft drinks have started the year strong. We do anticipate growth like we saw last year. And if you look at the Nielsen data into the back end of the year, you certainly saw some strengthening in carbonated soft drink growth in cans. And that seems to be the way the year has started out. So we feel positive about that. Energy I touched on, I think there will be a recovery this year relative to last year, which was, you know, in a way the category took a bit of a breath last year. There's been a lot of innovation, 21 to 23, alcohol innovation, other products, coffee-based replacements. So I think that, you know, 24 was sort of the year when some of that growth came off after some strong years. But 25, I think the market participants have got that back in order and will be driving growth. And some of that destocking we saw also as they moved into different distribution systems is also finished. So we'd be feeling good about the energy category for this year. I talked about, you know, alcoholic cocktails. I think that's a good space. There's definitely growth in there. And we're seeing that in our portfolio. And then Yeah, mass beer, I think, continues to be somewhat challenged, but actually Mexican tariffs, depending if they're on filled goods, could be a positive for domestic production and domestic supply. But, you know, it's a relatively small part of our portfolio. It's clearly the weaker part. If you look at the market data for last year, you know, that clearly is the weaker part of the portfolio. And then another one I'd call out is sparkling waters had a very strong year last year. We were strong with them. And, again, that looks like that's persisting into 2025.

Okay, thanks for that. And then just maybe I can ask about free cash flow and just maybe you can give me a walk from 685 and some of the offsets to that, whether it be CapEx and working capital, cash tax, and so on. And then so how much you expect for free cash flow in 25 and then how you expect to use that. Thanks.

Yeah, okay. So basically,

You know, we printed adjusted free cash flow of 204 million, sort of starting sort of with the EBITDA of 672. We had a small inflow in terms of working capital of around 40. We spent around 111 on maintenance, CapEx, and then lease repayment of 97. And then we had exceptional restructuring cost of 23. And then, you know, we get further down into the capital structure. I'm talking 24 now. We had 189. um of of interest paid and 28 cash packages so how does this compare now um you know to to our 2025 number so basically i gave a little bit of guidance on what to expect i mean you've seen our guidance range in terms of ebitda 675 to 695 so the key changes probably in in terms of the cash flow items are on the working capital You know, we expect a small outflow in 2025. In terms of maintenance capex, we expect to invest more. Some of it is clearly driving productivity. Some of that is investments in quality and all sustainability. So we expect around 100, 130-ish. And then in terms of growth capex, we spent 68 in 2024. This will be reduced to around the 50 million level. Tax will go up a little bit to 50 million as a result of NOLs having been used. And then also the cash interest will go up to 205 as a result of new facilities sort of we entered into last year. And then also the lease repayments will go up a little bit to 205 given that the new leases are sort of reaching their full run rate. We expect very little exceptional. We've been through our restructuring sort of shutdown of some of the steel lines and facilities. So net-net, sort of if you do the math, it will be, you know, slight reduction of free cash flow in the new year. And in terms of spending, I mean, the capital allocation policy and the dividend policy of the company has not changed. So that will be consistent with what you've seen in 2024 as per our expectation.

Excellent.

And our next question comes from Gabe Hayda with Wells Fargo Securities.

Holly, Stephen, good morning.

Hi, Gabe. I wanted to ask, there's been some question around, you talked about tariffs, but potential for the new administration to look at reformulation, specifically in carbonated soft drinks. And we've done a reasonable amount of work on this. I'm just curious if there's been any early dialogue with customers. I suspect I know what their view is on this, but just how that could play out in terms of cost to the customer or anything that you've come across so far.

Yeah, really not, actually. You know, as I said, I think most of the dialogue is about making sure they're getting supply, because we're seeing growth in, certainly we're seeing both growth in Europe and North America on the city side, particularly in the beginning of the year, actually. They were strong all year through North America, had some, you know, strengths and weaknesses in the portfolio in Europe, but in general, the category seems in very good health in And that does seem to be continuing. And actually the same is true for Brazil, even though we're not participating. So, yeah, look, it's a hard one, isn't it, to call what's going to happen at the minute. But, you know, I'd just say our customers have been very agile and effective in the past at managing different trends and regulations and health concerns. And, you know, they're very big and highly professional companies that you'd expect to work through these sorts of issues. But, yeah, no real dialogue with us, to be honest. Okay.

And then I wanted to, I think it's on slide 17, in the guidance kind of bullets, you talked about PPI headwinds and then higher metal conversion costs, which I don't think we've heard much on that, maybe in 2021 in terms of conversion costs. I'm assuming the PPI commentary was mostly isolated to North America, if you can confirm that. Maybe quantify it for us if you're willing. And then the conversion costs in Europe, is that something that's – what's driving that, I guess, number one? And then number two, could that persist in a 26-27, or is that isolated at 25?

Yeah, no, actually, for us, the PPI headwinds more located in Europe. I saw, you know, our peers talking about North America. But actually, you know, we have negative PPI in Europe. in Europe at the moment. And I think, again, our peers have talked about this, but some of our costs never go negative, particularly labor. So when we get into negative PPI, though we have contracts structured to try and avoid this, we do get some drag on our pass-throughs. And then actually the aluminium conversion cost is also specifically a European issue where the market for coils is is shorter in Europe, particularly domestic supply is shorter, and people have been prioritizing that a bit with everything going on in the world. So we're definitely seeing those headwinds more in Europe than in North America, where we have actually transferred our pass-through mechanisms to include much more of a labor mechanism and tend to get better pass-through. We have some headwind in North America, which is just we have talked about, I think, the inevitable reduction in some of the specialty regions that had grown up during COVID times. But it's not on the cost side, and it's not on the PPI side. So, yeah, I think that's the shape of it. I think this aluminium conversion piece, this is certainly the peak of the issue. It is also slightly related to the energy sector. Cost you in Europe that, you know, energy costs increasing is coming through a little bit and the metal having been shielded a little bit by hedges on their side in the last couple of years. So it's also a lag effect on on some of those costs coming through. But, you know, it is a specifically European issue. We've got, you know, good capacity coming through in North America on rolling mills, which will be very. Positive for the industry. We're not really seeing these issues in Brazil. We think the European issue, you know, mitigates over the next few years.

Understood. Okay. And last one real quick, just to piggyback on the cash flow in a room's question. I guess to put some numbers to it, it looks like free cash flow, something in the $130 to $140 million range. And then we've got to take off there the dividends. that you're paying out. So leverage for 2025 at the midpoint of 685 of EBITDA is maybe it tickles down to 4.8, give or take. Is that what you guys are thinking about internally?

Yeah, I think that broadly, I think it's all in the ballpark. I think we would expect leverage to be pretty steady relative to what we printed for this year and end of 2024.

Great. Thank you, guys. Thanks, Gabe.

And ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. And our next question comes from Mike Leathead with Barclays.

Great. Thanks. Good morning, guys. First question I want to talk about the earnings outlook. As you kind of talked through with Gabe, 2% to 3% volume growth. And the EBITDA growth of 10 to 15 million at the midpoint, I would have thought there's a bit higher of incremental margin you would have gotten on that volume. It seems like you have some headwinds you talked about. Can you just help us better understand the moving pieces, like how we should think about the actual benefit from the volume growth and how that's being offset in your guidance?

Yeah, look, I think without giving exact numbers, the piece we talked about are the headwinds. So the volume growth of 2% to 3% would translate through reasoning normally. And then we have particularly the aluminium conversion cost and the PPI headwinds in Europe, the FX headwind that we talked about. on a reported basis, and some specialty pricing pressures in North America, which, again, I don't think they're broad-based. They're just some specific situations as we come out of the COVID pandemic. Period. So those are the headwinds, which mean that, as you say, we're not getting a full translation of the 2% to 3%. On the other hand, we do have some significant operational cost savings as well. We're always working, you know, to improve efficiency at the plant level. We're always working on input cost savings. We're always working on SG&A efficiency. So they are also offsetting some of those headwinds.

Got it. Thank you, Ali. And then For a follow-up, just a question on the cash flow. EBITDA is up this year, but as you mentioned, free cash flow is down a bit. It seems like part of it is higher financing-related costs. Part of it is higher maintenance. I appreciate it's early to think beyond 25, but just will 2025 be the peak in cash use items? I guess what I'm trying to get at is when can we start generating cash above the dividend here?

Yeah, I think, as you say, it's probably a little bit early to talk about that.

I mean, given that we're focusing here on 2025, I think some of the, let's say, of the bigger needle movers, for instance, we talked about the growth capex. I think we are probably behind the big phase of expansion there and sort of the 50 million for this year, sort of 50 to 60 million. you know, going forward, that's probably not a bad number. But I think sort of overall, I think a lot of it is really depending on the, you know, the EBITDA growth, I think, beyond sort of 2025. I think that will drive a lot of the cash flow profile.

Okay. Thank you. Thanks, Mike.

And our next question comes from Gabe Hayda.

with Wells Fargo Securities.

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the follow-up. And I apologize. My phone kind of cut out for a second when you're talking about Europe. That segment was decently ahead of our model. I think you talked about shipping incremental ends maybe closer to the end of the year or something like that. But just, A, to confirm. And then I guess maybe looking at prior Q4s, you're relatively consistent with what you were in 2021. I'm just trying to understand, like, the improved overhead absorption in the fourth quarter, how much that played into the quarter. And then maybe is there any – it sounds like the strength kind of persisted in the Q1, so it sounds like the answer is no. But maybe order ahead of anticipated price increases on the aluminum side or this canned conversion issue that your customers had sniffed out.

Yeah, so look, I think on Europe there was no overselling of ENDS. If anything, the opposite. We were quite short due to some operational issues on ENDS. So that was a straight, you know, typical CAN number, the 8% growth. Obviously, it's true that Q423 was pretty soft because of the big destocking. But that all just played through then into higher production, better utilization, as you say, better fixed cost recovery. So I think everything just came together very nicely in Q4, and particularly into the year end. You know, we were strong right through to the end of the year. And then I wasn't sure there was a question about the fixed cost recovery. Obviously, generally across the company, we grew 3% last year. We did improve our fixed cost recovery, you know, with the capacity that we put in place. So that was interesting. That was definitely true. And then in terms of, yeah, the start to the year, you know, it's not that customers are particularly talking to us about any particular issue, but we're just finding that, you know, demand is looking, you know, pretty good, particularly Europe, North America, probably less so Brazil. I think Brazil, the summer doesn't look like it'll be amazing. Q4, you know, actually went into negative growth, as I mentioned in the remarks. in the market after a super strong first part of the year. And it still looks a bit bumpy. I think the consumer environment is weak. Obviously, strong dollar is never good for Brazil. So we still are positive about Brazil growth. We think 3% to 5% is not impossible for the year at all, but it's going to come more second-half weighted by the look of it. So, no, I think it's more that Europe, North America – Customers still seem to be leaning into the can for all the reasons we've talked about, sustainability, competitiveness. And as I say, you know, we can sort of point out that the PPI headwind is a slight drag on our results. But from a market point of view, it obviously makes the can very competitive for our customers. So it does help drive volume. So, yeah, as we look at it sitting here today, you know, we'd be hopeful of a good year on the volume front.

Yep. No, understood. Thank you. Thanks, Gabe.

And ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's question and answer session. I'll turn the call back to Oliver Graham for any additional or closing remarks.

Thanks, Lisa. And thanks, everyone, for joining. So I think just summarizing, obviously, we had a good Q4. It was ahead of expectations, particularly led by Europe. We grew across the year by 3%. And we do see the beverage can taking share across our markets, and that gives us confidence in further growth into 2025 and further growth in adjusted EBITDA. So we look forward to talking to you all again at our Q1 results. Thanks very much.

And that concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.