Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Ordinary Shares

Welcome to the Arda Metal Packaging Essay Quarterly Results Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stephen Lyons, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Arda Metal Packaging's fourth quarter 2025 earnings call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the fourth quarter and the full year.

by Oliver Graham, AMP's chief executive officer, and Stefan Schellinger, AMP's chief financial officer. Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP. AMP's performance and outlook.

AMP's earnings release and related materials for the fourth quarter can be found on AMP's website at ardhametalpackaging.com forward slash investors. Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release.

I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham. Thanks, Stephen.

2025 was another year of strong performance for AMP, underpinned by shipments growth of over 3%, a favorable product mix, and solid operational delivery. Our performance drove year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth of 10%, which significantly exceeded our initial guidance. Our tight focus on cost control generated meaningful operational and overhead cost savings in the year. Our teams navigated the complexity of evolving demand patterns, both in terms of category mix and can sizes, to position our capacity to support our customers' growth. From a balance sheet perspective, We ended the year in a robust position with nearly $1 billion of liquidity. In the fourth quarter, we successfully raised $1.3 billion of green bonds, which Stefan will talk about in further detail later. Our strong performance in the Americas was driven by significant growth in North America volumes of 6% for the full year and favorable mix through the high-growth energy drinks category, which more than offset the impact of softness in the Brazilian beer industry. In terms of European performance, operations and overhead cost savings, as well as shipment growth in carbonated soft drinks and other growing categories, offset the anticipated metal input cost headwind. In each of our regions, the beverage can continues to take share from other packaging substrates, advantaged by the can's convenience, branding potential, total cost of ownership and sustainability credentials. This supports a continued positive outlook for global industry growth. Turning to AMP's Q4 results by segment. In Europe, fourth quarter revenue decreased by 1% to $539 million, or by 6% on a constant currency basis, compared with the same period in 2024, principally due to the impact of a negative IFRS 15 contract asset, partly offset by favorable volume mix effects and the pass-through of higher input costs to customers. Shipments grew by 1% for the quarter, with good growth in carbonated soft drinks and across our diverse range of growing categories, as well as in the energy category. This was offset by a decline in beer shipments, which reflected a weaker industry backdrop, as well as strong shipments in the prior year. For the full year, Europe's shipments grew by 2%, with growth in non-alcoholic beverages offsetting a flat performance in beer shipments. Indeed, the broad-based gains across growing categories such as ready-to-drink teas and coffees, canned wines, water and juices is testament to the ongoing innovation in the European beverage can market and to AMP's success in supporting this growth. We expect this growth to continue, helping to further diversify AMP's portfolio. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 14% versus the prior year to $64 million ahead of expectations. On a constant currency basis, adjusted EBITDA increased by 8%, principally due to higher input cost recovery, which included a positive benefit from metal timing effects and favorable volume mix, partly offset by higher operations and overhead costs. Full year adjusted EBITDA of $272 million further underlines the region's improving profitability. In 2026, we expect to grow volumes by around 3% in Europe, broadly in line with industry growth. Capacity remains tight in the region, and we are therefore optimizing our network to better serve higher demand can sizes for faster growing category. We continue to review opportunities to support our customer growth, and we are progressing plans to add additional capacity in the attractive markets of Spain and the UK on a measured basis over the coming years. Both projects will add capacity into existing facilities with the related moderate increase in capital expenditure to be spread across financial years. These projects are underpinned by our favorable market positions and our confidence in Europe's growth outlook, supported by the CAN's low penetration rate, its attractive sustainability credentials, and the previously mentioned innovation trends. Beverage packaging scanner data across each of the markets in which we operate highlighted several percentage points of share gain in 2025 for the beverage can versus glass in the beer category and versus plastic in carbonated software. In the Americas, revenue in the fourth quarter increased by 24% to $807 million, which reflected the pass-through of higher input cost to customers, including the impact of the higher Midwest premium in North America, as well as shipments growth. America's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was ahead of expectations, with a 6% decrease versus the prior year to $102 million due to higher operations and overhead costs and lower input cost recovery, partly offset by favorable volume mix effects. In North America, shipments increased by 9% for the quarter, despite the company having to navigate some supply chain disruption. For the full year, AMP shipments grew by 6%. A&P's strong growth and outperformance in the year versus the market reflects our favorable customer and category portfolio mix, weighted towards non-alcoholic beverages, and in particular our exposure to the high-growth energy category that represented 16% of our North America sales last year. Sparkling water is another notable category that performed well, which represented 11% of our portfolio. By contrast, beer represented only a mid-single-digit percentage of our portfolio. Looking into 2026, we expect industry growth of a low single-digit percentage. As previously indicated on our third quarter results conference call, we expect some softness in North America for AMP following some contract resets, largely related to specific footprint situations. We anticipate 2026 being a transition year with a small volume decline before we expect to return to growth in 2027, at least in line with the industry, on the back of additional contracted filling locations and our attractive portfolio. Retail scanner data so far this year is encouraging for continued beverage can industry growth into 2026. We would note that during the first quarter, some of AMPs and our customers' operations were negatively impacted by extreme adverse weather, which we assume we recover during the quarter. We also continue to manage a tight metal supply situation after disruptions in one of our major suppliers' rolling mill facilities. This is causing operational challenges, and we incurred additional costs in Q4, which we anticipate will persist through the first half of the year, ahead of the restoration of capacity as well as the ramp-up of new domestic supply. In Brazil, fourth quarter beverage can shipments decreased by 4%, which represented a sequential improvement versus the third quarter, but lagged the improvement in industry performance due to customer mix. Full year shipments declined by 2%, in line with a weak overall industry volume, reflecting consumer weakness and adverse weather during the winter months. Encouragingly, industry data confirms that the beverage can gained an additional couple of percentage points of share in the beer packaging mix in 2025, in line with long-term trends. Looking into 2026, we expect industry growth of a low to mid-single-digit percentage and for AMP's volumes to broadly track the market. I'll hand over now to Stefan to talk you through our financial position for the quarter before finishing with some concluding remarks.

Thanks, Olli. We ended the year with a robust liquidity position of $964 million and net leverage of 5.3 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA. The expected increase in the net leverage metric reflects the impact of a successful 1.3 billion equivalent green bond financing, which we closed in December. As a reminder, the proceeds of the financing were used to repay 600 million of notes due in June 2027, to repay the senior secured term loan of Euro 269 million and to redeem the preferred shares of Euro 250 million. The headline leverage metric has increased as a result of the financing and the redemption of the preferred shares with debt. This refinancing has provided several benefits, including the lengthening of EMP's debt maturities with no bonds now maturing before September 2028, simplification of the capital structure, and an annual cash savings of approximately $10 million as the higher annual cash interest is more than offset by savings related to the previous annual preferred share dividend payments of approximately $25 million. We generated adjusted free cash flow for 2025 of 172 million, which was ahead of our guidance. During the quarter, both S&P and Fitch took positive credit rating action which reflects AMP's strong operation financial performance. In terms of 2026, we approximately expect the following for the various components of free cash flow. Total capex of slightly above $200 million, including gross investments. Least principal repayments of approximately $150 million. Cash interest of circa $220 million. Cash tax of a little bit $30 million, and a small outflow in working capital. Finally, today we have announced our unchanged quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share. With that, I'll hand it back to Olli.

Thanks, Stefan. Just before moving to take your questions, I'll just recap on AMP's performance and some key messages. So firstly, adjusted EBITDA of $166 million in the fourth quarter exceeded our guidance range of $147 to $162 million, with both segments performing ahead of expectations. Secondly, full-year adjusted EBITDA of $739 million was significantly ahead of our initially projected $675 to $695 million range, and this was largely driven by strong volume performance and favorable customer mix in North America, as well as favorable currency movements. And finally, the beverage can continue to outperform other substrates in our customers' packaging mix, supporting our growth. For 2026, we're guiding adjusted EBITDA in a range of $750 to $775 million. Adjusted EBITDA growth is expected to be driven by operational efficiencies and cost savings, shipments growth in line with industry growth in Europe and Brazil, and improved category mix. We view 2026 as a transition year in North America for volumes, ahead of an expected return to growth at least in line with the industry in 2027. In terms of guidance for the first quarter, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $160 to $170 million, ahead of the prior year quarter of $160 million on a constant currency basis. Having made these opening remarks, I'll now proceed to take any questions that you may have.

Thank you. If you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star 1 to ask a question. We'll take our first question from Matt Roberts with Raymond James.

Hey, Ali, Stephanie, good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. The first question, maybe on the 1Q guide, could you just talk about some of the volume trends by region that underpin that, what you've seen in the first two months of the year, any impacts you've seen from weather in the U.S., either in regard to facility outages or natural gas impacts or volume impacts at customers?

Sure. Hi, Matt.

So, yeah, we take it region by region. I think North America has had a very good start to the year in our portfolio with some key customers. But it is true that January suffered, particularly in the last week with the weather effects in the south of the country where we saw some of our facilities and some of our customer facilities unable to ship products. So we did see some reduction in what we expected for January. February and March are looking like they're tracking in line. or even slightly better, though we are, as we mentioned, navigating this quite challenging metal supply chain situation. So I think we're in line, and scanner trends look good. The energy category is still very strong, and we're certainly seeing that in our portfolio. So that's obviously very beneficial for Mix, again, within our profit performance. Brazil, the market started in good shape. So I think, you know, two to 3% in January for the industry that followed a 4% Q4 performance for the industry. So good recovery, actually, as we came into the summer season after the weakness, you know, in the in the middle of last year. and we're you know currently tracking ahead of that with some some good customer mix so yeah we're very positive about q1 performance in brazil and then europe's exactly where we saw it so i think the industry is growing you know broadly where we where we saw it we're in line with our forecasts we had a very strong q1 last year so um we see our growth being a bit second half weighted in in europe this year but again we see the industry exactly where we expected it and you know, if you take that all in the round, I think, you know, some very positive trends. We see no negative signs of the higher aluminum costs at the moment, which I know has been commented on quite broadly, but we certainly don't see that in our numbers or in the industry numbers at the moment, you know, so all very positive from our point of view.

Thank you, Ali. I appreciate that. Maybe on the capacity, as you discussed in Europe, it seemed like Spain, I think we previously discussed that last call, it seemed like It might be incremental, but any additional color you could provide on the timing of when that capacity is expected to start to ramp any startup costs and the related capex expected in 26 or 27, depending on the timing there. And in Europe, more broadly, some others seem to be adding in similar regions. So it seems like demand is still humming along there. But how does all the capacity inform your supply demand model there?

Yeah, look, it feels very tight, the market at the moment. I think we think it's running, you know, potentially even in the high 90s utilization as an industry. You've seen, you know, our peers volume performance at the back end of last year and for the full year. And we also had a decent year despite some weakness in our peer portfolio. So, I think that the industry backdrop is highly constructive, and you're talking about a market now of nearly 100 billion cans. So if it grows 3% to 5%, it's a couple of can plants a year that are needed. And we certainly see shortages on specific sizes right across the continent and in certain regional pockets. So I think the backdrop is very constructive. We have a strong position. We particularly have strong positions in those markets and we have customers who are looking to grow and who need our support. So I think it's broadly in line with our share position that we're adding this kind of capacity with a line in each of those facilities. It's over the next two two years or so you know some some possibly into the third year with the capex spread across that period and i think we signal the moderate increase to our overall capital guide for this year so you know you can think of that as around you know 10 um as an increase so not you know not very material to be honest as we already have some of the growth capex in this year so um yeah we regard these as very good projects um in you know in a very constructive market environment

So thank you again, Elliot. Thanks, Matt.

We'll go next to Josh Spector with UBS.

Hi, good morning. It's the Noja Shah coming in for Josh. You reported some pretty good pickup in Brazil there. What are you thinking around World Cup for this year and, you know, what kind of pickup, if any, and when exactly you think it might hit?

Yeah, I mean, I think once we're in a low to mid guide, then I think, you know, we see that as broadly incorporating, you know, the World Cup effect and maybe it pushes more towards the mid. Obviously, Brazil can move very fast, you know, across the growth trajectory. We've seen it over the last few years. And so, obviously, if Brazil go deep into the tournament and the weather's, you know, reasonable, then we could see some pickup. But I think we're comfortable with the sort of 3% to 5%. guide for the market and that we're in line with that. But I think that should be constructive obviously in the winter season, which is helpful. So we should see some good comps versus what was a pretty weak winter season last year. And then when do you get it? Yeah, you get it in the months running into the tournament. So obviously there'll be some inventory build and then we'd expect to see some sell through as the tournament goes. So you'd expect to see it in Q2 pretty much.

Right. Okay. Thank you. And then you also, in North America, I think you did have a comment in the press release about lower input cost recovery in North America. What is that exactly? Is it stuff besides aluminum and tariffs and things that are an immediate pass-through? Like, is it a PPI sort of index where it's a once-a-year pass-through? And any outlook on that?

Yeah. So, I think we refer to some supply chain challenges and operational challenges relative to the metal situation. So that then triggers some operational actions. We need to do shorter runs. We need to move volume within our manufacturing network. Some of the freight lanes get suboptimal. So it's a little bit of non-recovered freight, And a little bit of non-recovered costs associated with those. So, let's say a knock-on effect of those supply chain metal disruptions causing operational disruptions.

So, it does sound like that might persist through the first half, then, of this year. Is that right?

Yeah. I think that's a fair assumption. Okay. Thank you. I'll turn it over. Thank you.

We'll go next to Steven Diaz with Morgan Stanley.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just piggybacking off that last question. At the same time, you also noted in the release some operational efficiencies and other savings that you expect in 2026. Can you just give some details on the potential sizing and benefits and whether these improvements are in any specific regions, or if these improvements are just maybe, you know, some of these operational challenges kind of just falling off.

No, I think that every year we obviously make operational improvements and savings right across our network or regions, you know, so they're the normal things, lightweighting the can, improving, you know, reducing spoilage, implementing our production system across our plants to drive best practice and lean lean activity. So I think we're just citing the fact that those savings are being delivered. We have set some challenging targets this year, but we expect to be able to deliver them. And obviously that offsets some of the slight volume weakness we have in the North American business. So I think it's more a general comment right across the business.

Okay, great. That's helpful. And then, you know, it's been a few months since the ARGDAW group restructuring. Do you have any updates for us there? I know in the release you said, you know, no changes to capital allocation, but any potential changes in strategy, just given that?

No, absolutely not. I think, you know, I think AMD's got a good strategy. It's been working, you know, you've seen the delivery in 2024 and 25, and the guidance we're giving for 26, and You've seen our performance in various markets and, you know, the drop through into our profitability last year relative to our volume growth. So I certainly don't think anyone wants us to change strategy. And at the minute, as we've signaled, you know, capital allocation policy not changing either. So I don't think there's anything to see, you know, to see here in terms of changes since the restructuring transaction.

Thanks, Ali. Thanks. We'll go next to Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

Good morning. This is actually Brian Bergmeier filling in for Anthony. Thanks for taking the question. I appreciate the detail on slide eight on the share gain in Europe that the can has realized over the last year. Are you able to maybe provide a sense of how penetrated the can is in Europe and maybe beer and soft drinks relative to North America, just as we kind of think about kind of the room to run for future share gain in Europe?

Yeah, much less penetrated, right? So, I mean, I think that's one of the arguments why there is a long way to run. You know, I think we think the CAN is 40, 50% penetrated in North America. UK is the most penetrated European market, sort of approaches those levels a bit less. But, you know, Germany's, you know, a quarter of that. So, yeah, So we've got a long way to run. The German situation was very specific with a very poorly designed deposit scheme implemented in 2003 with no return path for the can. Can was essentially delisted out of retail overnight and has been on a long recovery ever since. And the German can market can grow 10% in the year. And for example, last year, there was a 20% growth number for German soft drinks in cans. So pretty dramatic numbers for a for a staple packaging product. So yeah, and we see the UK very strong last year, showing many of the similar trends as the US with a lot of innovation going into the can and pretty strong anti-plastic sentiment. And obviously glass has had difficulties the last few years with the high energy costs. And then the can also really demonstrating a lot of sustainability credentials with very high recycling rates, high recycled content. and a pathway to a significant decarbonization through the measures the industry is taking right through the value chain. So I think you add all those things together and you get a strong set of prospects, and the penetration rate just illustrates one of them. And then I think if you look at the growth rates, you know, we and our peers have posted for the last few years, and, you know, the projections we're all giving, it's clearly a very constructive backdrop, the European cow market.

Yeah, got it. Got it. Appreciate that.

And then just last question for me, and I can turn it over. I'm not sure if we're expecting any more kind of incremental headwinds in Europe from the aluminum conversion costs or maybe any PPI pass-throughs. And if we are, can you maybe provide a little detail if those are going to be better or worse on a year-over-year basis compared to last year? Thanks. I'll turn it over.

Yeah, no, I think we have through that. I think that was really predominantly a 2025 issue, so we don't expect material headwind in that regard.

We'll go next to Mike Roxland with Truist Securities.

Yeah, thanks, Ali, Stephane, and Steve for taking my questions. Ali, you mentioned a couple times this is a transition year for the company, especially in North America. It seems like you lost a little bit of shared peers, but then you're getting some new filling locations in 2027. To this day, you can comment on this forum. What end markets are those new filling locations occurring in? Are they with existing customers? Are they with new customers? And can you give us a sense also how your contract did roughly for 2028?

Sure, yeah, Mike. So, look, I think those funding locations are broadly aligned with our portfolio. So, you know, weighted more towards the soft drink side of the house, you know, like our portfolio. So, those are principally those. There is some in beer, but then, you know, in specialty sizes, which I think is obviously where we want to be. And, yeah, entirely with existing customers. So, these are, you know, very long-term relationships where, you know, the quality of the customer service and the relationship is driving those gains. And I think, you know, it is only a transition here really in North America. I think, you know, Europe and Brazil, you know, pretty straightforwardly just tracking alongside the market.

Got it. And then just, you know, for 2028, any early read just in terms of how you think from items?

Yeah, so I think that, I mean, we and our peers have commented on this, but we went through sort of significant contractual events in some of the big customers in 24, 25. So we're very heavily contracted now, you know, through the next few years into the end of the decade. And I think that's been commonly commented on in the industry.

Yeah, that's very helpful. Thanks. And then just one quick one. Last quarter, and you may have mentioned this before, and if you did, I apologize, but last quarter you mentioned being tight in certain specialty sizes in Europe, caused you some growth last year. You decided doing some, your intent to do some projects, 4Q into 1Q that give you additional capabilities for specialty. So what do those projects stand right now? And do you know that, you know, Is, well, where does the project stand? And, you know, can you remind us what capital is involved in doing that? And are you in a position where you're not going to lose additional share because you have the functionality now in Specialty to meet your customer needs? Thank you.

Thanks, Mike. Yeah, good question. So, yeah, the project, it's in a plant in France, gone very well, ramping up, again, ahead of expectations, giving us, Yeah, more specialty capability and different specialty capability and more regional, better regional alignment of supplies to also reduce freight, reduced out-of-pattern freight. So I think that's going well. And, yes, we'd be hopeful at that positions as well for the coming season. It's clear those trends are continuing in Europe, you know, a bit like North America with the specialty sizes growing. So we think, yeah, that puts us in a better position for this year for sure.

Got it. Good luck in 2016. Thanks a lot.

We'll go next to Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on a strong 25. And an outlook for 26. So I guess just on the outlook, so it sounds like there are some customer mix issues that would maybe push you to the lower end versus industry growth. And also, you know, would you highlight anything else there? Are you pretty much sold out as well as maybe some of your competitors are? And then I guess I also – I'll start with that. Thanks. Thanks.

Yeah, no, if we've managed to convey that message, that's a misunderstanding. We definitely have no mixed issues. We have mixed gains, I think. It's only North America, but I think we signaled it at the Q3 call that there were some contract resets that meant we have an overall volume reduction, you know, actually not really in specialty sizes mostly. largely linked to some footprint changes in the market. That's footprint on the side of our customers who were, you know, rationalizing filling locations, but also footprint as a result of new camp plants that were built post COVID and also footprint from contracts that we had entered into in the expectation of building additional capacity that when the growth came off in 2022, 23, we didn't build. So when you added all that up, there was some logical resets in terms of facilities that were closer to the new customer footprint. So that was an overall volume effect, only North America, nothing to do with Europe or Brazil. And I think what we were trying to signal in the remarks and in the release is that we see positive mix effects in 26 to offset some of that.

Okay, thanks. And then just a question on the metal side. So obviously the Midwest premium is up significantly. Do you see that as potentially impacting canned demand? I know there's been some substrate shift away from other substrates, including glass, as you noted. But are we approaching maybe a ceiling on that, just given some of this increase in the Midwest premium? And do you see that kind of changing or maybe even reversing at any time in the future, given volatile tariff dynamics? Thanks.

Yeah, we'd certainly hope it changes because it's very extreme and it doesn't make any sense in terms of obviously the aluminium supply chain. So yeah, we'd certainly hope that it comes back into normal ranges at some point in the future. Yeah, I mean, I think that I mentioned it at the top of the call. We're not seeing any change, you know, at this point. And obviously customers and ourselves have hedges, you know, so we don't know exactly when people entered into hedges and when they roll off. So, you know, we wouldn't be able to sensibly rule out any impact from this. at the minute we don't see it and again there are some strong trends that are driving the growth um you know in terms of the way innovation has gone into the can the sort of retail shelf sets that have been put in place to accommodate that the consumer reaction to cans versus plastic some of the energy cost issues that we see in the overall cost issues we see on the glass side so so i think you know there's some big trends behind the growth of the can as well and Obviously, there may be some headwind at some point from the high aluminum costs, but we're not seeing it in the data. We're not seeing it in the market data, and we're not seeing it in our sales at this point.

Thanks for that. And if I can just ask on Europe, you mentioned growing your capacity in the UK and Spain. What's kind of the timeline and, you know, what kind of impact should we expect that that could contribute to your overall growth? Thanks.

Yeah, I mean, we said, look, over the next few years, you know, we'll like we always do. Those projects tend to cross a couple of calendar years. And so there's the CapEx. And look, we're very tight. So all we're really doing there is giving ourselves the capability to grow with the market or, you know, maybe a tick ahead, but broadly with the market. So, again, you know, I think you've heard pretty consistent commentary that the European market broadly is in a three to four range. I think some of our peers would say three to five. It depends a bit on geographic mix, category mix. But if you're in that sort of range, and we expect to be, then, you know, we need to be adding this kind of capacity on a, you know, reasonably regular basis.

Thanks. Thanks, Aaron.

Another reminder to ask a question on today's call. That is star one on your telephone keypad. We'll go next to Gabe Hayes with Wells Fargo Securities.

Hey, good morning, Ollie, Stefan. Hey, Gabe.

I may have misheard you, Ollie, and I apologize. Did you mention Q4 EBITDA in Europe was, in fact, better than planned on metal timing effects? And again, if I misheard you, I apologize. Does any of that carry over into the first half and then The supply disruptions, just to be clear, it's basically isolated to some of the rolling mill issues that we're having. And if you're willing to quantify maybe the hit that you had in Q4-25, what you're embedding in for the first half of 26, by our math, it'd be maybe $5 to $8 million on the first half of 26 and a couple follow-ins.

Yeah, I mean, Gabe, I'll let Stefan comment too, but that's reasonable. And the lower end of that range is sort of broadly where we saw Q4, I think. So that's fair, I think. And obviously, you know, we're giving guidance, including these sorts of thinking. Yeah, and then Europe, I think it was an aspect of Q4. Again, I'll let Stefan comment on that one, on the metal timing.

Yeah, I think that's exactly right. We benefit from it, but it was not the entire EBITDA growth that was a result of metal timing.

And I don't think it's the particular impact in H1 this year, right, which was the other question?

Yeah, I think it's, yeah.

Yeah. Okay, so no carryover effect from metal timing in Europe. That was just isolated to Q4.

Yeah, there's no material expectation.

Yeah. I mean, it does depend, Gabe, as you know, a bit on what happens with LME and Midwest. So obviously we can't be absolutely certain because it depends a bit what happens, but there's nothing material in the plan.

Okay. And then I guess maybe to put a finer point, I mean, it sounds like we're talking about two additional lines, one in each plant in UK, Spain, and traditional yield out of those is still something a billion to a billion to a unit.

Yeah, I think, I mean, we may start, you know, slightly shy of that, you know, as first phase. But again, you know, the lines are pretty modular now. So you can go up in a couple of steps from, you know, slightly below a billion. But yeah, these are the kinds of ranges we'll be in.

Okay. And then one clarification or point on cash flow, Stefan, I think you mentioned earlier Lease principal payments 150 this year. I think that's up pretty materially from 111 in 2025. Is that sort of at a steady state at this point, or does that go up again maybe in 26, 27?

So, no, to be clear, I said 115, 115. So, apologies if that wasn't clear, but it's 115. So, it's 5 million higher than what we've seen in 2025. And that should be a number that should be relatively steady going forward.

Perfect. Thank you. That's it. Thanks, Gabe.

At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back to Oliver Graham for additional or closing remarks.

Thanks, Jennifer. So just to recap, in 2025, we reported global shipments growth of over 3% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 10%. We finished the year strongly, as fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA exceeded our guidance, with both segments performing ahead of our expectations. We're looking forward to a good performance again in 2026 and are guiding for adjusted EBITDA in the range of $750 to $775 million. Thanks for your time today, and we look forward to talking to you again at our Q1 results.

This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.