APi Group Corporation

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to API's Group's Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. All participants are now in a listen-only mode until the question and answer session. Please note this call is being recorded. I will be standing by should you need any assistance. I will now turn the call over to Olivia Walton, Vice President of Investor Relations at API Group. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call today are Russ Becker, our president and CEO, Kevin Crum, our executive vice president and chief financial officer, and Sir Martin Franklin and Jim Lilly, our board co-chairs. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that certain statements in the company's earnings press release announcement and on this call are forward-looking statements which are based on expectations, intentions, and projections regarding the company's future performance, anticipated events or trends, and other matters that are not historical facts. These statements are not a guarantee of future performance and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. In our press release filings and with the SEC, we detail material risks that may cause our future results to differ from our expectations. Our statements are as of today, November 3rd, and we have no obligation to update any forward-looking statement we may make. As a reminder, we have posted a presentation detailing our third quarter financial performance on the investor relations page of our website. Our comments today will also include non-GAAP financial measures and other key operating metrics. The reconciliation of and other information regarding these items can be found in our press release and on our presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Martin.

Thank you, Olivia. API had an outstanding quarter in a tough macro environment. The company delivered strong organic revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted earnings per share, and free cash flow. The financial results speak to the strength of API's recurring revenue, statutorily required services business model, and the team's focus on driving higher margin growth, as well as our ability to generate cash and run the business with a strong balance sheet. As we look at our long-term roadmap for sustainable shareholder value creation, we believe that through industry-leading margin-accretive organic revenue growth, leveraging our SG&A along with a critical focus on cash flow conversion to enable us to reduce our leverage profile and fund future acquisitions, API can realize outsized investor returns in the years ahead. We're very much looking forward to providing a more granular outline at our upcoming investor update on November 17th of the exciting opportunities we see in front of us to continue our organic growth and expand margins as we focus on our 2025 goals. I'm looking forward to seeing many of you there, but also encourage you to reach out to Olivia to register if you haven't already, as space is limited and the demand for the seats has been robust. With that, I'll hand over to Russ.

Thank you, Martin. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the time to join our call this morning. During today's call, I will begin my remarks by commenting on our strong third quarter results and highlighting some of the key drivers we believe will allow our business to continue to perform well in the remainder of 2022 and into 2023 and beyond. I will then provide a brief update on ongoing integration efforts at Chubb and outline the key topics we intend to cover at our upcoming investor update before turning the call over to Kevin. who will walk through our financial results and guidance in more detail. Before I get into highlights from our outstanding third quarter results, I would like to express my gratitude and appreciation to our team members. Since the beginning of our public company journey three years ago, we have battled many hurdles, including COVID-19, supply chain disruptions, inflation, and bringing the business into public company compliance. Our team and their leadership has been the steady force keeping us pointed in the right direction. For that, we are grateful. Turning to the third quarter, I am very pleased with our record results. We delivered solid free cash flow revenue and adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted earnings per share growth in a tough macro environment. Key highlights from our performance for the three months ended September 30th, 2022 compared to the prior year period include the following. First, net revenues grew on an organic basis approximately 16.5%. The sixth consecutive quarter of organic growth since going public at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. driven by a double-digit increase in inspection, service, and monitoring revenue in our legacy business. As a proportion of the business overall and its statutorily required safety services continues to grow towards our raised goal of 60% plus as a percentage of total net revenues. Our revenue momentum and robust backlog continues to reflect strong demand for our services across key end markets. Second, Adjusted gross margin grew by 208 basis points to 26.3%. Our teams remained a laser focus on continuing the activities that helped to offset short-term margin pressures in the first half of the year, including pricing activities, focused growth in inspection, service, and monitoring, strong spend controls, procurement initiatives, and disciplined project and customer selection. As a reminder, on average, inspection and service revenue generates 10% plus higher gross margin and monitoring revenue generates 20% plus higher gross margins than contract revenue. Third, adjusted diluted earnings per share increased by approximately 6% or 2 cents, driven by strong operational performance and accretion from the acquisition of Chubb. Fourth, Adjusted free cash flow of $166 million was, as I said, solid, exceeding our guided range of $110 to $130 million and representing a 159% increase compared to the prior year period. In summary, we are pleased with the execution and leadership across our businesses as we deliver on our near-term targets while maintaining a long-term strategic focus and planning for the opportunities 2023 and beyond will bring. As we have discussed throughout the year, while supply chain disruptions and inflation have caused some downward pressure on margins in the near term, we do not believe these negative variables limit us in achieving our long-term goals. We look forward to providing additional details on our path to 13% plus adjusted EBITDA margin by 2025 at our upcoming investor update. As we move through the balance of the year and into 2023, we are confident that our focus on growing statutorily required high-margin inspection, service, and monitoring revenue, combined with our robust backlog and variable cost structure, positions us well to prosper, even if the macro environment continues to be volatile. API has proven its resiliency in managing the macro challenges presented over the past decade with strong organic growth of approximately 7% augmented by cash flow funded bolt-on acquisitions. The business has also historically demonstrated an ability to preserve profits and generate strong free cash flow aided by its flexible operating structure with approximately 75% variable cost, an asset-light model with capital expenditures of less than 1.5% of net revenues, small average project size, and short average duration for projects, which allows for frequent pricing adjustments to offset inflationary pressures. We continue to benefit from the accretive acquisition of Chubb and believe that it will continue to enhance API by strengthening our resiliency in the protective mode around our business. While we do not know if we are headed into a recession or not, we remain disciplined, proactive, and preemptive in how we operate our business. As many of you know, as part of our annual budgeting process, we challenge each of our operating companies to develop a long-term plan that addresses the opportunities in front of them, as well as a downturn plan that addresses any potential challenges unique to their market and operations. We believe preparation is critical. not only on paper through our downturn plans, but also in preparing our business leaders to take definitive and early action if needed. Whatever the challenge, we intend to build on our successes over the last three years to achieve the goals we have set for ourselves over the next three years. Turning to Chubb. The integration and growth of Chubb remains a top priority. Since the closing of the acquisition, We have been working to complete the back office separation of Chubb from its prior owner. We are scheduled to complete the separation work by December 31st and look forward to picking up speed on the work of integrating Chubb into the API family in 2023. This acquisition is truly transformational, and we continue to be energized by the opportunities in front of us as we create a truly global company. We stand as the number one life safety services provider in the world. This is a great accomplishment, and we would not be where we are without our people. As detailed in our press release on October 13, as part of our upcoming investor update, we intend to provide an update on the ongoing integration of CHUP, including the specific actions that have been taken, the initiatives that are underway, the savings achieved, as well as new opportunities ahead, the efficiencies captured, and the planned steps that will occur in the months and years ahead to drive savings, efficiencies, and organic growth. In addition, we plan to provide a business update, including continued initiatives to drive future growth and margin expansion opportunities, strong earnings and cash flow, and deleveraging plans. In this forum, where we will have more time to talk about our strategy and opportunities outside the quarterly focus, we believe investors will better understand the clear path we have to make the most of the opportunities in front of us and achieve our 2025 goals as we continue to focus on shareholder value creation. I would now like to hand the call over to Kevin to discuss our financial results and guidance in more detail. Kevin?

Thanks, Russ. Good morning, everyone. I will begin my remarks by reviewing our consolidated results and segment level operating performance for the third quarter before turning to our full year guidance. Reported net revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2022 increased by 65.7% to 1.7 billion compared to 1 billion in the prior year period. This was driven by revenue from acquisitions completed in safety services and strong organic growth in safety and specialty services. Adjusted gross margin for the three months ended September 30, 2022 was 26.3%, representing a 208 basis point increase compared to the prior year period driven by acquisitions and safety services in an improved mix of inspection service and monitoring revenue and safety services, as well as improved productivity in specialty services. These factors were partially offset by supply chain disruptions and inflation. which have caused downward pressure on margins. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the three months into September 30, 2022 was 10.7% compared to prior year adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.9%, driven by mix from completed acquisitions and supply chain disruptions and inflation, which caused downward pressure on margins. This was partially offset by an improved mix of inspection service and monitoring revenue and cost leverage on higher volumes. As Russ mentioned earlier in the call, net revenues increased on an organic basis by approximately 16.5%, driven by double-digit growth in inspection service and monitoring revenue for our legacy businesses and safety services. Approximately two-thirds of this growth was driven by price and pass-through of material and labor costs, and one-third was driven by volume, which we measure through labor hours. Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the third quarter was 37 cents per share, representing a 2 cent per share increase compared to the prior year period. This increase was driven primarily by acquisitions in safety services and strong organic growth in safety and specialty services. I will now discuss our results in more detail for safety services. For the three months into September 30, 2022, safety services recorded net revenues increased by 117% to $1.1 billion, compared to $533 million in the prior year period, primarily driven by revenue from completed acquisitions. Net revenues increased on an organic basis 19.7% compared to the prior year period, driven by double-digit increase in inspection, service, and monitoring revenue, Adjusted gross margin for the three months into September 30, 2022 was 30.7%, representing a 103 basis point decline compared to the prior year, driven primarily by inflation and supply chain disruptions, which caused a decline in productivity. This was offset by strong margin expansion in our core life safety services offering, driven by an improved mix of inspection, service, and monitoring revenue, as well as pricing initiatives. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the three months into September 30, 2022 was 12%, representing a 221 basis point decline compared to the prior year, driven primarily by SG&A leverage impacts from completed acquisitions and the reasons provided in the review of gross margins. I will now discuss our results in more detail for the specialty services segment. Specialty services reported net revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2022, increased by 12% to $590 million compared to $527 million in the prior year period, driven by an increase in service revenue, increased demand at our infrastructure, utility, and fabrication businesses, and improved capture of inflationary-driven price and cost pass-through. Adjusted gross margin for the three months ended September 30, 2022 was 17.5%, representing a 133 basis point increase compared to the prior year, driven primarily by improved productivity and improved mix of service revenue. These factors were partially offset by inflation, which caused downward pressure on our margins. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the three months ended September 30, 2022 was 12.5%, representing a 59 basis point increase compared to the prior year due to leverage on higher volumes and improved mix of service revenue. These factors were partially offset by supply chain disruptions and inflation, which caused downward pressure on margins. Turning to cash flow, our cash flow performance in the third quarter was strong. For the three months ended September 30, 2022, adjusted free cash flow was $166 million above our previously guided range of $110 to $130, and representing a $102 million increase compared to the prior year period. The increase was driven by the positive contributions from acquisitions, continued focus on working capital, and strong EBITDA growth in our legacy businesses. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio at the end of the third quarter was approximately 3.6 times, and the weighted average maturity of our debt was over five years, with the earliest maturity being in 2026. We remain laser-focused on cash generation and deleveraging at approximately one turn annually as we move towards our stated target net leverage ratio of 2 to 2.5 times. I will now discuss our guidance for the balance of 2022. We have tightened our ranges for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA to reflect increased visibility and confidence in our outlook as we near the end of the year. On our last call, we highlighted that the strengthening dollar had negatively impacted our full-year outlook. At that time, FX had been an approximately $145 million headwind at net revenues and approximately a $15 million headwind at adjusted EBITDA for the full year. Based on exchange rates as of the end of the third quarter and versus our original guidance in February, FX has now negatively impacted our full-year results by $200 million in net revenues and $20 million in adjusted EBITDA. Therefore, on a reported basis, that is including FX impacts, we expect our full year revenue outlook to range between $6.45 to $6.5 billion compared to prior year guidance of $6.4 to $6.5 billion and expect adjusted EBITDA will range between $660 to $675 million compared to prior guidance of $655 to $675 million. In spite of these additional FX headwinds, we've been able to hold the top end of our range and bring up the lower end of our range, which means our updated full-year guidance reflects improved constant currency performance across our businesses. We've provided a slide in our presentation that lays this information out in more detail. We now expect growth in net revenues on an organic basis at constant currencies of 10 plus percent up from prior guidance of eight to nine percent driven by strong growth and inspection service and monitoring revenue as well as our robust backlog as of the end of the third quarter we expect interest expense for 2022 to be approximately 125 million up from our prior estimate of 120 million We continue to expect capital expenditures to be approximately $85 million and our adjusted effective cash tax rate to be approximately 24%. We expect depreciation for 2022 to be approximately $80 million and our adjusted diluted weighted average share count for 2022 to be approximately $270 million. We anticipate strong sequential free cash flow performance in Q4 relative to Q3. This is consistent with historical trends, and our full-year guidance for adjusted free cash flow remains unchanged. We expect adjusted free cash flow in the fourth quarter to be between $190 to $210 million, and we expect to arrive at an adjusted free cash flow conversion for 2022 at or above 2021 levels, which was 55%. This is on our way to our long-term adjusted free cash flow conversion target of approximately 80%. As mentioned on our last earnings call, we anticipate reaching a net leverage ratio below 3.5 times by year-end as we move towards our previously stated long-term target of 2 to 2.5 times. We look forward to providing more details on our plans to reduce leverage by approximately one turn annually and manage our fixed versus variable debt portfolio as part of our previously referenced upcoming investor update. I will now turn the call over to Jim.

Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, everyone. As you've heard, API had a strong quarter and year-to-date performance has been solid. Our continued execution of our plan and focus on driving shareholder value continues to demonstrate that the business model in which services growth, which is increasingly a function of controllable initiatives, is offsetting macro headwinds such as the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, inflation, and foreign exchange rates. The business... continues to perform well and deliver on its commitments driven by strong organic growth and solid operational performance, as well as our ability to mitigate margin pressures that exist on a macro basis through increasing high margin inspection, service, and monitoring revenue, pricing initiatives, discipline cost controls, and operational improvements. With a continued forward progress made in 2022, we believe that we are well positioned and well capitalized to continue to execute our business plans for 2023 and beyond. We are focused and adaptive as needed to create sustainable shareholder value by focusing on our long-term value creation targets, which we intend to cover in more detail at our upcoming investor update, and including the following, one delivering on long-term organic growth revenue above industry average, leveraging SG&A and COGS, expanding adjusted EBITDA margin to 13% by year-end 2025, targeting adjusted free cash flow conversion of approximately 80%, generating high single-digit average earnings growth, targeting long-term net leverage ratios of two to two and a half times, and finally executing an accretive M&A strategy. With that, I'd like to now turn the call back over to Russ and look forward to seeing many of you on the 17th and detailing to you all the continued value the acquisition of Chubb provides and the opportunities ahead for all of us. Russ, back to you.

Thanks, Jim. With three solid quarters behind us and confidence in our operating outlook for the fourth quarter, our focus has largely turned to 2023. As I mentioned earlier, we intend to leverage the actions we have taken this year to make the most of the opportunities in front of us and achieve our 2025 goals as we continue to focus on shareholder value creation. I would now like to turn the call back over to the operator and open the call for Q&A.

At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 now on your telephone keypad. To withdraw yourself from the queue, you may press star 2. We'll take a question from Andy Kaplowitz of Citigroup.

Good morning, everyone. Hey, Andy. Good morning. Russell, you just mentioned 23. I'm sure you don't want to get into it too much, but you made a statement in your earnings release that you're well-positioned, well-capitalized to continue to execute your plans for 23 and beyond. Can you characterize your visibility at this point to deliver the goals in 23 that you've laid out, you know, high single-digit earnings growth, getting back to 80% conversion, like any more color on, you know, sort of meeting these goals over the next year?

Yeah, we feel confident as we move into the last months of 2022 and as we're working through our budgets and business plans for 2023. A couple of things that give us that confidence, Andy, is first, we have a very strong backlog at roughly $3.6 billion. So as we move into the year, we feel good about that. We continue to have kind of that above 10% growth in our inspection business, which, if you recall, every dollar of inspection revenue we generate, we're going to add $3 to $4 worth of service revenue. And so as we continue to build out our inspection sales force, we continue to grow inspection revenue. We know we're bringing service right alongside with that. And our total service revenue now as a business is at roughly 51% of total net revenue. So we feel really good about where we've positioned the business as we move into next year. And I also, I guess, maybe I'd finish by saying that the end markets we serve are just strong, and they continue to provide robust opportunities for us as we move through it. And the end markets that we primarily serve have been really provided great opportunities right through the pandemic, right through some of the inflationary issues that we've been challenged with. We feel really good about where the business is at, and the leadership at the company level has been really strong. And we continue to make the changes that we need to in Chubb so that we can continue to deliver good results.

Russ, that's helpful. And then maybe to your last point on Chubb, maybe give us a little more color into what you're seeing in the business there, what you're seeing by region. Obviously, your Americas is continuing to be strong. What you're seeing in Europe and Asia related to Chubb?

Well, I would start by reminding everybody that as it relates to Chubb, 60% plus of their revenue comes from inspection, service, and monitoring. And so when you think about the business model, it's got really good resiliency as we look at potential recessions, particularly in Western Europe. So when I think about Chubb, like Every time I'm there, every time that we continue to interact with the Chubb team, I get more fired up. And I go back to this Center of the Fairway comment that we've made from day one as it relates to this transaction. We are the right owner for this business, and I really believe that... that we are going to really improve the performance of the business, help this business really get to where it needs to be. And we continue to look at kind of Our priorities as it relates to CHUB is first is getting separated from carrier. We were able to provide carrier notice at the end of September that we plan to be exiting all of the transition services agreements by December 31st. So our teams have done an amazing job of getting us to the point where, you know, we have confidence that we're going to be able to exit. We're focused on kind of right-sizing, you know, the business and, you know, addressing some of the, you know, kind of above-the-branch costs, which is something that's, you know, well overdue, and getting the business, you know, positioned for growth. And we've shown organic growth, you know, through the three quarters of this year. And so as we continue to, you know, really transition the business to a branch-led business, model, which is how we've built our business, it gives me great confidence that we're going to be able to deliver a really solid, positive result in that business.

That's helpful, Russ. And then maybe one for Kevin. You guys reported a good step up in cash flow in Q3. Can you give us more color about the opportunity to get back to 80% conversion? What are you seeing, Kevin?

Yeah, so as we talked, you know, we started out the year from a working capital standpoint with significant investment both in dollars and in rate. And what we've continued to do as we've moved through the year is make significant improvements in our working capital rate. And you saw that. carried through Q2, now into Q3. And with the flatter volumes, Q2 to Q3, we were able to produce a good cash flow number. And we expect cash flow to continue to improve and conversion to continue to improve into Q4, as we traditionally see due to the seasonality in our North America business. As we go into next year, we expect to continue to harvest the investment that we made in the first half of 2022 and return to more traditional free cash flow conversion levels. So an improvement off of 2022 on our way to that 80%, the approximate 80% target that we have out there.

Appreciate it, Gus.

We'll take our next question from Julian Mitchell of Barclays.

Hi, this is Kieran Patel O'Connor on for Julian Mitchell. I just wanted to ask on organic growth. It was pretty strong in the quarter, I think plus 16%. Were there any end markets that were particularly strong or weak that you would call out relative to that number?

Well, I mean, I think that, you know, I mean, the end markets that we serve, you know, if you look at from a safety services perspective, you know, we're focused on, you know, data centers, semiconductors, you know, healthcare, you know, end markets that have shown great resiliency, you know, through the, you know, the last number of years and continue to actually provide, you know, opportunities for us. In specialty services, we do, you know, we have, The telecom and fiber optics space continues to provide robust opportunities, public utility, private utility, natural gas distribution, retrofit opportunities, potable water replacement opportunities. So we feel really positive about, you know, the end markets that we serve. And, you know, the reality of it is that the business doesn't have a tremendous amount of exposure to retail and hospitality. It doesn't mean we don't, you know, do work in those spaces, but it's just not a – um, huge emphasis for us. And so as those, as those businesses, you know, kind of cycle, um, we don't have tremendous amount of, of exposure to the space. So, um, I hope that's helpful.

Yes, that is helpful. Thanks. And then, uh, my followup would be just on supply chains. I know you're still calling out supply chain disruptions, you know, as a headwind to margins. Um, have you seen, you know, any improvement here relative to earlier in the year or anything to call out? Um, from that perspective? Thanks.

I think we've seen, I think you see a mixed bag there. I think you have some areas that, you know, you've seen improvement not only from a supply chain and product availability, but also from a cost perspective. You know, as an example, you know, we track very closely hot rolled steel as it relates to, we buy a lot of pipe. And so we want to know, you know, what's going on with pipe prices and pipe prices have actually come down And that should provide us with some sort of a tailwind as we look at the fourth quarter of this year from a margin uplift. But you still see some supply chain issues from a chip and semiconductor and how that impacts the availability of vehicles, how it impacts the ability for you know, fire alarm control panels in different products that we're continuing to try to source. So you really have a bit of a mixed bag there in how that impacts the business.

Got it.

Thanks. We'll take our next question from Andrew Obin. Your line is open of Bank of America.

for andrew um could we get an update on the backlog trend in the third quarter sure so i think um if you our backlog um is roughly 3.6 billion um you know right as it sits right now today that's slightly down from 3.7 billion that we reported at the end of last quarter that's very normal for us um we're Obviously, as we work through the summer months, with some seasonality associated with the business, we have a tendency to burn off backlog through the summer months and into early fall. We typically rebuild backlog through Q1, Q2 as we move into next year. We continue to see robust opportunities in our pipeline. And I would also say that, you know, we are super disciplined from a project selection, customer selection perspective. So the fact that, you know, our backlog is slightly down is not necessarily a bad thing. We continue to focus on improving the mix to inspection service and monitoring and don't have any concerns about, you know, really where our backlog is at right now today. Thank you.

Then as a quick follow-up, when you think about pricing, look, the pass-through costs, they're going to be what they are. But the controllable pricing for you, are you continuing to accelerate that? Is that kind of leveling out? How are you thinking about the controllable piece of pricing?

So we're continuing to take price wherever we can. I mean, I think that's something that inflation continues to really be a very hot topic. And so we continue to push price in every instance and every place we can. We also continue to push the utilization of fuel surcharges and such. And so we really are focused on continuously trying to take price where we can. We also need to balance that with being fair to our customers. and making sure that we're doing right by them and continuing to provide the best opportunities for the company. One other point that I should probably make regarding our backlog is an item of note that Olivia pointed out to me is that on a year-over-year basis, our backlog is actually up 8% from this time last year. So our backlog is in a really strong spot.

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Andy Whitman of Baird.

Hi. Yeah, good morning. So I guess you had a comment about productivity in the specialty segment. Russ, I thought maybe you could just talk a little bit more about that. Was that driven by easing supply chain and just your guys could be more productive because they had the parts they needed, or was there something else driving that that was in your control?

Well, I mean, yeah, for sure it's, you know, I mean, the comment was directly correlated to, you know, easing supply chain, you know, issues in the segment. You know, I think that from an operational perspective, Andy, you know, every day we're focused on trying to be better and trying to be, you know, more productive and, you know, on how we manage and lead our work. And I think that's something that's, you know, like just the way we're wired is like, you know, every day we want to be, you know, better than yesterday. And so some of that is just driven by that. You also have, you know, it's been a dry summer. And so from a weather-related perspective, that provides, you know, a boost to your productivity when you're not dealing with rain days and rain outs and things like that. So there's a few things that have contributed to that.

Got it. And then I guess for my follow-up, I was hoping you could talk a little bit about – I guess I'd call it like net new business. If you could talk about the retention side of your recurring revenue businesses as well as the new sales opportunities, both in the legacy – most of the U.S. business as well as in Chubb, which you're seeing there in terms of customer retention, the changes that you're making, and are they focused on or does the environment today allow them for new sales, giving so much consternation, particularly in Europe with what's going on there?

So how I would answer that would be is like I can't give you like a hard data point that we've got 93% customer retention or anything like that. What I can tell you is that we have not seen a tremendous amount of customer churn. And I think that if you look at the way we incent and pay our inspection sales folks, a piece of their compensation package is based on customer retention and retaining customers from year to year, and that's something that we measure. So we have expectations there, and that piece of it and component of it has been really rock solid. As it relates to Chubb, I would tell you that one of the disciplines that we need to help bring to Chubb is this whole idea of disciplined customer and project selection. So you will see us actually, you know, probably – I don't know how to put it, but we're going to probably need to eliminate some of our customers in some of the markets that we serve in that business so that we can enhance margins by eliminating whether they're poor-paying customers or whatever it is. And so we are going to bring that focus to that business. And so, you know, if you're able to attend our investor day, you'll see that a portion of our kind of our revenue growth strategy actually includes some, I guess, elimination of certain revenue with certain customers as part of that strategy, if that makes sense.

That makes sense, addition by subtraction. Okay, and then just maybe just one quickly for Kevin. Do you have, now that we're kind of along the path here on Chubb pretty far along, do you have an estimate what the cash costs are going to be to finish the integration on that?

We do, and we're going to walk through that as well as our updated thoughts around value capture at our November 17th presentation. All right.

See you there. Thanks, Andy. We'll take our next question from Catherine Thompson of Thompson Research Group.

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions today. First, just focusing on margin, you have given some colors today, but just a clarification on why safety margins were down, but especially when they both seem to face the same tailwinds. mixed more service and headwinds, inflation, supply chain issues.

Hi, Catherine. I'll take that. So on safety, when you look at our safety margins, they were down year on year. Primary driver of that really is on the contract side of the business, where we've continued to push and battle inflationary as well as availability of some product that drove some productivity shortfalls. We believe the productivity component to be primarily captive to the third quarter. Again, it was just on some of the contracts that we had, project business that we had, we faced some availability of product that impacted us. All that said, in that business, our service margins continued to improve, as well as the favorable impact of growth on the service side, so the mixed component. But it was really the contract side in the safety business that drove that margin shortfall. On the specialty side, We just didn't see that. Our teams continued to do a good job on the project side of the business on pushing through additional inflationary costs. Service was growing well in that business, too, so we got a mixed pickup. And then also we had some volume pull through. The team did a really good job last year managing our cost structure in that business, and we're starting to see some benefit of that as we continue to push through higher volumes and specialty.

That's helpful. It was a great detail on the backlogs that you gave earlier. But as a follow-on to that, are you seeing any pockets of cancellation or softness related to projects, either on a renewal basis or with new projects? Thank you.

So, I mean, I guess I would answer by saying we've seen a handful of things slide out to the right, mostly like multifamily-type project-related work. We don't do a tremendous amount of that type of work, and so it's like it really doesn't affect our business. But, you know, we continue to keep an eye on it, you know, as a – As a general comment, you know, we do very, very little residential, whether that's, you know, single-family, you know, or multifamily housing. It's just not an area that, you know, really puts a lot of value on a company like ours that brings value and tries to sell value. You know, every day it's really just a price-driven, you know, end market. And so we don't really play there. But we do, you know, do some work. And we have seen a little bit, you know, with higher interest rates, we've seen some of those projects, you know, slide out a little bit to the right. I'm guessing that they'll happen based on the – that's primarily in North America, to be honest with you, in the U.S., I would suspect that you'll see they'll eventually get built just because of the, you know, the situation that the U.S. is in from a housing perspective. But with rising interest rates, you're going to see, I think, people being a little bit more cautious, you know, on kind of developer-led type projects.

Okay, great. And a final question for the day. Just a discussion of how pricing discussions are going into 23 and dissecting surcharges versus transportation versus stickier pricing. Thanks very much.

Well, I mean, you know, obviously surcharges, you know, you're going to adjust as, you know, fuel costs, you know, continue to change. And, again, I go back to my comment that we need to be fair, you know, with our customers. I think in general the price that we're taking is sticky, and I think that will – We'll be able to hold that as we move into 2023. I'm sure there will be some situations where, you know, we have some customer pushback. And, again, I'll just go back to, you know, we want our leaders to be fair to their customers. And, you know, we need to earn a fair margin. And we need to deliver superior service. And if we do that, I believe that the pricing that we've been able to take will stick.

Great. Thank you very much.

Well, next question from John Tanwantang of CJS Securities.

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Really solid performance and good results. My first one, Kevin, I was wondering, do you have any expected currency headwind estimate for 2023? And following that, what is your projected interest expense as of today's rates and rate forecast?

Projected interest expense, John, for 2022? Three, for 2023. So we haven't provided guidance for 2023. I can tell you on the FX, we do, you know, FX is most acute in the back half of 2022, both from a revenue and from an EVDA standpoint. And we expect, you know, at current rates to have a headwind in the first half of next year, sort of comparative to the back half of 2022.

Okay, great. And then you mentioned just transitioning away from the back end at Carrier to your own at Chubb. Is there any specific step function and run rate saving expected there when you do that transition, or is it going to be just an increase on your expense?

John, I heard you ask about savings, and then I didn't hear the last part of that question on increase. Can you come back to that, please? Sure.

Yeah, I was just wondering is there any expected run rate saving when you transition away from carriers back in?

Okay, I understand that. So first, the transition continues to move along well. Our goal was to get out by the end of the year, and we're on target. So the team's done a really good job there. On your question on incremental savings, I'll say or incremental costs, we don't foresee either. We think we're going to be able to manage in line with the charges that we've incurred that are in our run rate this year as we go to our own environment. Our goal has been to do it sort of on a cost-neutral basis, and the team's done a really great job of being able to plan for that, and that is our sort of base case as we go into 2023.

Understood. Thank you. And if I could squeeze one more in there, are there any areas where you're seeing significantly more or perhaps less opportunity, you know, relative to either when you set your long-term targets last time or maybe when you close the job acquisition?

Well, I mean, I would tell you that we see more opportunity, to be honest with you. I mean – I just continue to be really excited about what we see with the business. Lots of examples. The cross-selling has really started. Chubb has a security client that has multiple facilities here in North America. And they, you know, used to work with a different firm, and now they're, you know, working, you know, with our company to provide those different services. You know, we're doing the same for them. You know, we integrated, you know, we had a business in the U.K. that their expertise was really in the sprinkler space. You know, we've integrated that business, you know, into Chubb. We believe that we're going to be able to provide, you know, sprinkler inspection and service capabilities to Chubb. and add that expertise, you know, to their business. And I just think that, you know, our branch operating model works and it's solid. And as we continue to gain visibility, you know, into their business and bring that operating model to the business, it'll allow us to lean out a number, say a bunch of corporate costs, if you will, and, you know, bring the, you know, kind of the business back to the branch. You know, we want our branch leaders to be out, you know, selling work and executing work and spending time with their people and growing and developing their people. We don't want them, you know, sending reports up to corporate. And we want them winning, you know, in their communities that they serve. And we're going to bring that operating model to that business. And we're on our way to doing that. And it's, I mean, I just, like, I can't tell you enough. Like, I'm excited about it, and we are the right owner for this business, and Chubb has found the right home. Great. Thanks, Les.

Our next question is from Adam Wyden of ADW Capital.

Hey, guys. Great, great performance. Two quick housekeeping questions. The first one is you guys have been really aggressive on integrating Chubb. I know you guys were going to quantify, like, what the return is and the absolute dollar amount of sort of cash costs. But, I mean, is it fair to assume that, you know, the lion's share of the integration and restructuring is going to take place in 2022 and that we're set up for sort of less ad backs in 2023?

Adam, this is Kevin. I would say that we anticipate, as we continue to conclude our plans on value capture, which we're getting close to concluding, the activity to deliver it will carry into 2023. So I would say those charges, restructuring in particular, I think was your question, will carry into 2023, but suspect they won't carry much beyond 2023. Got it. Okay.

And then the second question is, and we're seeing this in a lot of our companies that have kind of cost plus contracts, that you get the increased revenue, but your margins come down because you don't get a margin. You don't really get margin on that increased cost. As you roll into 23, as the inflation comps get much easier, you're not sort of chasing your tail. I mean, do you think that that's going to be a major driver of margin sort of over the next 12 months as you sort of get to keep that increase of cost, but you then are able to reprice the margin.

Yeah, Adam, this is Kevin again. I think that's right. You know, we incurred a margin drag this year that we've talked about. And as costs flatten and or revert, like Russ talked about hot rod coil as an example, we should see the loss margin in 2022 as a pickup to our margin in 2023.

Right. And in theory, some of that you might even not just get the loss margin, but, you know, you might actually get more margin as some of those costs don't all, not, I mean, some like get rebated to the customer, but in theory, some of them you'll actually get to keep, right? So in some theory, you'll get the margin that you lost this year and maybe even more so, right?

Well, that would be ideal, Adam. But I was chuckling, actually, when you were asking your question. You talked about a major driver of margin. I mean, I think we're incrementally going to see a pickup in our margins, you know, as we move into 2023. And, you know, really we should see some of that margin pick up in the fourth quarter of this year.

Excellent. Well, great, guys. Appreciate all the hard work.

Thank you. Thanks, Adam. We'll move next to Steve Tusa of JP Morgan.

Hi, good morning. Good morning. Just on the price, I'm not sure if you guys gave this. We've had a couple of earnings calls this morning. But what was price in the quarter?

Pricing was about two-thirds of our organic revenue growth.

Got it. Is that consistent with what you guys had in the second quarter? Have you guys put through incremental pricing here in the third quarter?

You know, generally what we've been seeing is that two-thirds, one-third relationship has really held through the year. I mean, as Russ said earlier, we continue to push pricing, and we will as we move into Q4. But sort of the relative component of organic growth, that two-thirds, is really how we've seen it all year, and it's how we would anticipate as we move into Q4.

Got it. And then anything into next year? I'm not sure if you guys highlighted this kind of backlog stat that you put out there before. How is that trending? And anything in the next year that we should be aware of just from the bridge, whether it's EBITDA or cash or anything like that, that should be a positive or negative swing for 23 at this stage?

No, I don't think so. I mean, like I said in my earlier remarks, you know, our backlog is, you know, at this point on a year-on-year basis is up 8%. And, you know, we typically burn off a little bit of backlog as we work through, you know, summer and early fall. And so where we're at as we move into the end of the year, it remains really solid and, you know, really should help set us up for a solid 2023. Great.

Congrats on the execution.

Thanks, Steve. Thank you.

And there are no further questions at this time. I'd be happy to return the call to our host for any concluding remarks.

Thank you. In closing, I want to make sure I take the opportunity to thank all of our team members for their continued support and dedication to our business. They've really worked hard to deliver the results that we were able to present to you today. I'd also like to thank our long-term shareholders as well as those who have recently joined API for their support. We appreciate your ownership in the company and look forward to updating you on our progress throughout the remainder of the year. And we look forward to seeing many of you at our November 17th investor update in New York City. So thank you, everybody, for joining the call this morning.

Thank you. This does conclude today's program. You may now disconnect your lines. And everyone, have a great day.