Arch Resources, Inc.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Arch Resources Incorporated first quarter 2024 earnings call conference call. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on Thursday, April 25, 2024. I would like to turn the conference over to Dex Sloan, Senior Vice President of Strategy. Please go ahead.

Good morning from St. Louis, and thanks for joining us today. Before we begin, let me remind you that certain statements made during this call, including statements relating to our expected future business and financial performance, may be considered forward-looking statements according to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Forward-looking statements by their nature address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain. These uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the annual and quarterly reports that we file at the FCC, may cause our actual future results to be materially different than those expressed in our forward-looking statements. We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as may be required by law. I'd also like to remind you that you can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that we plan to discuss this morning at the end of our press release a copy of which we've posted in the investor section of our website at archrsc.com. Also participating on this morning's call will be Paul Lang, our CEO, John Drexler, our COO, and Matt Gilgamesh, our CFO. After our formal remarks, we'll be happy to take questions. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Paul.

Thanks, Nick, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest in ARCH, and we're glad you could join us on the call this morning. I'm pleased to report that during the first quarter, Our continued drive forward with our consistent and proven plan for long-term value creation and growth despite some headwinds. During the quarter just ended, the team achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $103 million and generated $83 million in discretionary cash flow. Delivered a $56 per ton cash margin in our core metallurgical segment, underscoring the durability of our cash generating capabilities across a wide range of market providers. Reduced our outstanding share count by 3%, which included 315,000 shares associated with the unwinding of the capped call instrument and the repurchase of an additional 95,000 shares. Declared a quarterly cash dividend of nearly $21 million, or $1.11 per share, and perhaps most importantly, extended our industry leadership and sustainability as the state of West Virginia named Lear and Lear South co-recipients of the state's top safety, and honor Lear South with the state's top environmental. As we've noted many times in the past, our capital return program is the centerpiece of our value propositions. We've now deployed more than $1.3 billion to this program since its relaunch in February, 2022, a figure equivalent to 46% of our current market capitalization in a period of just over two years. Breaking that down further, we've paid $727 million for nearly $39 per share in dividends over that time frame, while reducing our share count by 3.5 million shares at roughly 16% versus the peak level in May 2022. As indicated, this last component, the systematic reduction in our share count, has taken center stage and is receiving our intense focus. We've already made significant progress on this front over the last two years. reducing the share count from 21.9 million shares in May of 2022 to 18.4 million shares today. Along with this, we believe we've positioned the company to drive even greater progress in the quarters ahead through our efforts to streamline the capital structure over the last two years, including the retirement of our convertible debt, the elimination of our warrants, and the recent liquidation of our capital, and our decision to build a substantial cash balance facilitate the opportunistic buying of our shares during market pullbacks. In short, we believe the stage is set for ongoing investment. It arches compelling long-term prospects for a strong and sustainable share repurchase program. Turning to the cold market dynamics, after declining steadily throughout the first quarter, seaborne coping core prices appear to have found a base in the last two weeks and are beginning to show signs of a rebound. At present, Flax is assessing high-volume A cocaine at $220 per metric ton, FOB the U.S. East Coast, versus an average of $285 per metric ton on the same basis just last December. It's worth noting that despite the relative market softness year-to-date, certain demand fundamentals appear generally supportive. For instance, global hot metal output for the world excluding China was up 2% during the first three months of the year, While China's imports of high-quality seaboard cooking coal continue to trend higher. Counterbalancing those positive indicators, the supply side has recovered modestly year-to-date, with Australian and U.S. cooking coal exports rebounding so much, albeit to levels significantly below their respective peaks. It's important to point out, as a world-class competitor with a first-portile cost program, Archer is exceptionally well-positioned to manage through extended periods of market weakness. while still driving value for shareholders. In fact, periods of market weakness can be healthy in our community by differentiating the stronger operator, reinforcing the fact that this is its modern business, the cycles that ebb and flow, and being a low-cost producer does that. But we also continue to believe in our longstanding thesis that underinvestment and ESG-related constraints will continue to support a constructive, long-term supply-demand balance in global cooking for the market. In fact, those dynamics could spur a quick recovery in such markets if global economic conditions start to strengthen or if major economies begin to increase their steel-intensive stimulus spending. It's also worth noting that recent price declines may already be taking a toll on high-cost U.S. operations. In recent weeks, several small cooking coal mines have idled sections or ceased production entirely, according to Market Intelligence. Turning now to the thermal markets, U.S. fundamentals remain challenged at present. Natural gas trading below $2 per million at Henry Hub and utility stockpiles at a historically high level after the mild winter. These natural factors in turn build an estimated 10% decline in domestic thermal coal production on a quarter-over-quarter basis. On a more positive note, the seaborne thermal market has rebounded somewhat, with Newcastle Price standing at $130 per metric ton and API 2 at $119 per metric ton. Being a part of this improvement in the price environment, U.S. thermal coal exports were up roughly 26% for the first two months of 2024 and compared to 2023. Looking ahead, we're sharply focused on driving continuous improvement across our operating platforms in support of ongoing and value-generating capital returns for our shareholders. At the same time, we'll continue to capitalize on the strategic optionality afforded to us by our ownership interest in the DTA terminal as we navigate through the tragedy of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse at the Port of Baltimore. While the closure of the port should not have any impact on production in our mind, it's likely to constrain second-quarter coal shipments somewhat, and in turn, dampen Q2 capital returns. However, we expect the impacts to be timing-related only, if the Port of Baltimore reopens as anticipated, with the effect of cash flows merely delaying rather than loss. In closing, let me say, in many respects, ARCH is built for periods such as this, when our low-cost positions and high-quality products afford us the ability to generate substantial cash flows despite softer market violence. At the same time, we believe we're equally well-positioned to capitalize on the situation, and return even more robust amounts of cash to our shareholders when the markets recover. With that, I'll turn the call over to John Drexler for further discussion on our operational performance in Q1. John? Thanks, Paul, and good morning, everyone. As Paul just discussed, the ARCH team successfully navigated through significant disruptions to logistics chain in a weakening market environment during Q1, while still delivering substantial amounts of discretionary cash. While production levels for our core metallurgical segment were less than radical from an annual guidance perspective, the portfolio is currently transitioning into increasingly favorable geologic conditions, and we expect good momentum as we progress through the year. In the first quarter, our core metallurgical segment once again delivered a first quartile cost performance and generated nearly $130 million in adjusted EBITDA, Despite less than ratable output stemming from longwall moves at both Lear and Learside, typical geologic variability and issues I would characterize as just minor. Included in this latter category, we lost seven days of longwall production at the Lear mine during Q1 at an estimated impact of around 70,000 times due to our efforts to coordinate the longwall startup with a local utility's relocation of power lines that were to be undermined. While the steps we took on that front resulted in our receipt of a $9.1 million payment, which was recorded as other income, we estimate that the lost tonnage inflated our Q1 metallurgical segment costs by close to $2 per ton. Even with that impact, the segment's average cash cost came in at $94 per ton, which was modestly above the high end of our full-year guidance range, but still top tier when compared to other U.S. cocaine coal producers. As indicated, our coking coal mines are transitioning into increasingly favorable geology, and as a result, we remain comfortable with our four-year guidance and the cash cost midpoint of $89.50 per ton. In the thermal segment, the West Elk Mine continued to operate efficiently and generated solid adjusted EBTA, even as it continued to ship under several legacy contracts that dampened net fats there. The Potter River Basin assets also operated efficiently, but lost cash in spite of that fact due to the rapidly cooling domestic thermal demand environment. In short, we ended the year stripping at a pace consistent with a 55 million ton per year sales volume level, but are currently anticipating 2024 shipments that could be as much as 10 million tons lower than that. As a result, the PRB operated in the red in Q1, counterbalancing the solid performance at West Elk. On a more positive note, stripping completed in the PRB in the years back half, and as in the past, to preserve value by negotiating additional out-year commitments in exchange for any customer-requested deferrals. Looking ahead, we continue to be encouraged by the general progression of our cooking coal operations. Rear South is currently operating at a good, productive pace and is well on track, in our view, to achieve the 3 million ton annual production figure we have targeted for the mine for 2024. Moreover, the development work we are currently doing in District 2 is serving to reinforce our confidence in the much-enhanced geologic conditions we expect to encounter there. As previously discussed, our drilling data, as well as our experience via the early development work in that district, suggests a materially thicker coal seam and more favorable credibility overall in District 2. which would prove beneficial when we began longwall mining there in the fourth quarter. I will say again, at a time when many other operations are wrestling with the migration to less advantageous and higher cost reserves, we are fortunate to be moving in the opposite direction of Ruslan. Now let's spend a few minutes discussing the closing of the shipping channel in Baltimore following the tragic bridge collapse there. As we have discussed, we typically ship the majority of our Lear and Learsouth export volumes or roughly half of our cooking coal volumes overall, via the Curtis Bay Terminal in Baltimore. With the channel closed, we are having to direct volumes elsewhere, and I'm pleased to report that the team is doing a terrific job on that front and remains focused on maximizing our shipments using alternative routes. Of course, our strategic investment in Dominion Terminal Associates and Newport News has been pivotal to our success on that front. as has been the great support we have received from our rail partners. While we continue to work around capacity constraints and DTA, we believe we will be able to achieve sales volumes in the range of 1.9 to 2.2 million tons in Q2, depending on the exact timing of the channel reopening that is currently projected for the end of May, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. That volume level would put us at around 4 million tons through the first two quarters, suggesting a little over a 2.4 million ton quarterly run rate in the year back end. Given our available alternative logistics and stockpile capacity, we do not expect any impact to our production levels at the mines due to the port outage and continue to view our prior volume guidance of 8.6 to 9 million tons as achievable. Before passing the baton to Matt, let's spend a few minutes discussing the team's exemplary achievements in the sustainability arena. As you know, we firmly believe that a culture of safety and environmental stewardship is essential for long-term success in our business. During Q1, ARCH's subsidiary operations achieved an aggregate total lost time incident rate of 0.62 incidents per 200,000 employee hours worked, which was more than three times better than the industry average. On the environmental front, the company again recorded zero environmental violations under SNCRA, as well as zero water quality exceedances across all of our subsidiary operations. Highlighting the team's excellent work, the state of West Virginia recently named the Lear and Lear South Mines co-recipients of the Governor's Milestone of Safety Award, the state's highest safety award. In addition, the Mount Laurel Line and the Lear, Lear South, and Mount Laurel Preparation Plan We're each honored with a Mountaineer Guardian Award for safety excellence. In the environmental arena, Lear South claimed the Greenlands Award, the state's highest honor for environmental achievement. And Lear and Lear South were honored with additional environmental excellence. On behalf of the board and the senior management team, I want to commend the entire workforce for their deep commitment to excellence in these essential areas of performance. With that, I will now turn the call over to Matt for some additional color on our financial results.

Matt? Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone. Let's begin with a discussion of first quarter cash flows and liquidity. Operating cash flow totaled $128 million in Q1, which included a working capital benefit of $19.7 million. While we had anticipated working capital to build in the period, the decline in metallurgical prices over the course of the quarter combined with lower thermal shipment volumes Capital spending totaled $45 million and discretionary cash flow was $83 million. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended March with cash and short-term investments of $340 million, essentially flat with 1231 levels. As we discussed in last quarter's call, we closed on our new $20 million term loan in Q1 and largely used those proceeds to retire the old loan and make other debt amortization payments, resulting in end-of-quarter debt Our net cash position was $174 million on March 31st, and our liquidity was $442 million, both of which remain above target levels. Turning now to the capital return program, we continue to execute on our two-pronged approach, systematically reducing the share count while also paying a meaningful dividend. Starting with the share count, The cap call unwind, which made up over 75% of that total, was equivalent to a share repurchase of nearly $53 million, but without any cash outlay in the quarter. We also repurchased 95,000 shares in the open market in Q1, and in total have now retired over 2.5 million shares at an average price of $139 since we relaunched the program. That, combined with the retirement of the convertible debt, has reduced our fully diluted share count by 3.5 million shares, since its recent high point in 2022. And while share count reductions are a clear priority, the dividend remains a significant component of Arches' value proposition. Warren has approved a quarterly dividend of $1.11 per share today, bringing the total dividends to nearly $39 per share since the beginning of 2022. The upcoming dividend will be paid on June 14th to stockholders of record as of May 31st. Next, I wanted to provide some additional detail around Paul's comment on Q2 capital returns. John just provided an excellent overview of our approach to managing our export metallurgical shipments while Baltimore Harbor remains closed. From a timing standpoint, as you would expect, much of April to date has been focused on redirecting activity away from Curtis Bay into DTA and other alternatives, with the net result being Additionally, we expect a further seasonal step-down in thermal volumes in Q2, before seeing modest improvement as we get into the summer. As a result, we currently expect a significant working capital increase in Q2, and that operating cash flows and discretionary cash flows will be at levels that won't allow for significant share repurchases in the quarter. We view this strictly as a timing issue, and we anticipate cash flows As a final point, while we expect second quarter volumes in both segments to be lower than RADL as compared to guidance levels, we expect stronger performance in the second half of the year and are maintaining our full year operating in financial guidance. With that, we are ready to take questions. Operator, I will turn the call back over to you.

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the number 1 on your touchtone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press the star followed by the number 2. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment please for our first question. Your first question comes from Lucas Pipes from BeRiser Security. Please ask your question.

Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, everyone. I want to start with a strategic question. So when I think back over the last couple of years, there were number of kind of unexpected issues, the Curtis Bay disruption, West Elk geology, Lear South geology, and then obviously the recent tragedy in Baltimore. Your strategy has been focused on kind of large productive mines and you focused on these core assets and I would expect mean reversion from the events of the recent years. But is there a case to be made, and how do you think about adding more geographic or other diversification to the portfolio? Thank you.

I think it's an interesting question, because I think I've told people many times over the years.

I think back to 2012 when we were operating 38 mines, For us, we found it was not the easiest thing to do. I think there's others that do it well. But where we have found our sweet spot, I think, is operating very large, very efficient, very low-cost lines. And it does come with a certain degree of exposure. But by and large, I think, particularly as we continue to improve things for your staff, I think we really will be set up well going into the future and I think more importantly, what you'll see is that, you know, if you look at our maintenance capex, you know, doing status quo in the next 10 years, you know, our capex is going to be much lower than some of our periods in operating life. And that's, you know, that's kind of a little bit of the offset to the very issue you're talking about, about being more spread out. So with that, I don't know if any of you have any thoughts on that or...

So this is with the stack. And so with the addition of Lear South, obviously, you know, we were endeavoring to address just that. And I think we've done that to a meaningful degree. Of course, it's not, you know, it's not going to be perfect diversification, but to a meaningful degree. And I think DTA, you know, underscores, you know, what you just described, which is, you know, the investment we made to expand our investment actually at DTA several years ago is really paying dividends today. So we certainly are aware of that need to make sure that You know, we have flexibility, but we can be nimble, but we do have alternate routes and, you know, and multiple production sources that are consequential. We have two big horses now rather than just one in the Cozumel segment as an example. So we have taken meaningful strides. And again, I think that's paying dividends significantly right now when you think about, you know, how much volume we expect to move in Q2 despite the fact, you know, that Curtis Bay is right now, you know, out of the market.

Thank you very much for those comments. On the thermal side, it looked like you restripped quite a bit in the PRB given the market conditions. So for Q2, what would you expect this to mean on the cost? I'd assume there'd be a pretty sharp reversal. So if you could kind of walk through the implications on the cost side, also on the volume side for Q2, I would appreciate that. And then, Matt, I think you mentioned there at the end of your comments that working capital will be used in Q2, and you'd expect that to reverse later in the year. You have been very tactical in the past with the pursuit of share repurchases. Could this be a period right now where even though cash flows may be temporarily restricted, you continue to lean in, giving a very bullish long-term outlook on met coal prices? Thank you very much.

Lucas, John Drexler here. I'll start out with a discussion on the thermal side. You know, in the PRV, as we described in our prepared remarks, You know, the team there is prepared for a stripping level that was meaningfully above what we've seen here start to play out at the beginning of the year. Obviously, the winter was less than ideal. We've seen, you know, gas prices that are displacing electric generation from coal. You know, just a lot of pressures, and everybody has been feeling it there. What I'm real proud of is the team out at NPRB does a fabulous job. They've been through this before. They know what to do. Unfortunately, it's not something that just happens overnight. They're in the process right now of adjusting schedules, eliminating overtime, managing headcount, laying down equipment, doing all of the things that we've done and we've done successfully in the past. But it typically takes several quarters. As we discussed, we have created some pit inventory. We stripped higher than what was shipped. As we realign the operation moving forward, we'll get that benefit. We've seen 50% growth essentially in our pit inventory that we'll benefit from in future quarters. But as you look at the second quarter from a seasonality perspective, there's typically a lot of pressure in that historically in Q2 anyway because of spring and the shorter season. So Q2 may be another challenging one as well, but the team right now is actively implementing all of the measures that we've done successfully in the past. We'll be working to control those costs, minimizing the negative impact in Q2, and we'll expect to benefit from that and get back to cash positive here as we work through the remainder of the year in 2020.

And Lucas, in the past, if you look back, you can certainly see those periods when we do sort of flip over to shipping more than we strip, you can see the margin expansion. Now, obviously, there's some headwinds out there on the thermal side. Stockpiles are very high. Gas prices are low. So we'll see how that manifests itself. But that can be pretty powerful when we do move to that point where we're shipping more than we strip, as opposed to the headwind that we've had in Q1. We'll have it again in Q2, which is stripping more than we ship. So we certainly are feeling optimistic about the second half. But we'll also have to watch and see what happens

with thermal demand overall. Lucas, on your question regarding the share repurchases, we clearly expect a working capital build this quarter.

Better to predict this quarter probably than most, just given all the uncertainties around how the export shipments will be diverted and where those will end up. But safe to say, given the shift in volumes to the latter half of the quarter, that we'll see that build. As it relates to the share repurchase program, we clearly, you know, last quarter built up a nice bit of cash on our balance sheet to be opportunistic. And if the share price moves in a way that we think it's very opportunistic to be in the market this quarter, I think you'll see that. But, you know, clearly that was meant to be for times when, you know, the cycle really moved against us when the long-term fundamentals didn't necessarily do so. So I think we'd probably be more likely to continue to hold that cash absent a particularly good opportunity for buybacks.

Thank you very much for all of your color.

Continued best of luck. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Martin from Benchmark Company. Please ask your question.

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks, operator. Just maybe sticking with the thermal segment just real quick. I mean, obviously you guys just highlighted the high stockpiles, low net gas prices, mild winter for the most part. So what gives you the confidence that you can still hit your full-year thermal shipment guidance targets? How are conversations going with customers maybe? I think previously you mentioned we could see another 5% to 10% of those contracted tons roll over into 2025. And then Maybe separately, you highlighted another negative contribution in the PRB, likely for the second quarter. But is there an opportunity to have an overall positive contribution from the segment, that thermal segment, based on how you think West Elk will perform?

Nathan, the goal here, and obviously we believe over the course of the year, we're going to have the thermal segment to catch positive conditions. both West Elk and in the PRB as we move forward. You know, we talked about this on the last call. We talked about it in prepared remarks. You know, we're essentially committed in the PRB to higher levels than what we're indicating, you know, in the thermal shipment levels. And, you know, the expectation is that we're going to continue to see pushback. I applaud the marketing team and their efforts to manage that when you have essentially significantly high stockpiles, the inability of utilities to take any more coal, we've found ways and opportunities here to roll over tons, not just to preserve value of those tons that are rolling over, but to actually create value as well. We did that successfully in 2023, and the team's already focused on that and working through those types of opportunities as we move forward here So, yeah, we could see, you know, ongoing pressure. We could see, you know, shipments continue to be challenged. But once again, with the work that's being done at the operation to realign for the expected shipment levels moving forward and the work that the marketing team is doing, we do expect to get it back to cash positive as we get to the back half of the year. Hey, Nick, this is Paul. You know, look, I think one thing that gives me comfort is I look back You know, John and the team at the Powder River Basin have just done an amazing job, you know, the last five, six years of responding to the market up and down. You know, it's a big mine. You know, 50 million tons of your mine doesn't change overnight. You know, in this case, you know, we've done a very good job over the years responding to these changes in market. And, you know, of all the locations that would have to do it, Black Thunder would be the one I would pick. And I think they'll do a good job.

And they just on the granularity of the numbers, look at, you know, right now we could foresee potentially shipping as low as 45 million tons out of the PRV. And we had 4 million tons of West Elk and the thermal byproduct in the east. And you're looking at 50 million, which is the low end of that range. And again, we may ship more than that, but right now we continue to see value in working with customers, deferring shipments, if they need to defer them, and then using that to get some length. You know, in an environment where stock calls are very high out there, you know, getting sort of, you know, out here business, you know, could be challenging, but using this opportunity to work with customers, you know, to get length and maybe multiples of volumes, you know, in terms of if we defer one time, potentially getting additional volume beyond that one time out here is a real opportunity. So we're going to be strategic about it. But I do think the 50 to 56 million tons encompasses, you know, a reasonable range for what we would expect, you know, in almost any sense.

Appreciate all the color there, guys. Maybe shifting over to the MET segment, John, I know you touched on some of this in your prepared remarks, but clearly Lear, you know, had a weak production quarter, I think one of the weakest in five plus years. So do you expect that to kind of return to the typical, call it 1 million ton per quarter kind of run rate post the power line relocation you mentioned. I believe you also previously said the mine should be moving into thicker seams. So great to get a little more color there. And then related, how should we think about the second quarter MET segment cost per ton, at least directionally from the first quarter? It seems like if we remove that $2 per ton from the power line relocation that you called out, maybe things should improve, but it would be great to get your thoughts.

Yeah, good questions. We'll start with Lear and kind of some of the commentary around that. The power line relocation came at the end of a long, long move. You know, we have the right to subside the panels that we mine. There was a power line towers that came across that. The local utility requested that they wanted a little more time to shore up those towers. We were compensated for that, $9.1 million that we recorded in other incomes. But, you know, clearly delaying the startup of the long ball is impactful, 70,000 tons, $2 a ton impact for us as we move, you know, forward. You know, we describe other things as well. You know, you can have geologic variability, you know, at the end of the day, immaterial in the grand scheme of things. So you might have had an impact or two, a few things there. Those are all things that we manage each and every day and don't expect any longer-term impact. So, yes, absolutely, we are confidently going to get back on track. It is going to be heading into some thicker coal in the panels. It's going to continue to mine here for the remainder of 24. We touched on Lear South as well. It went through a move. Also, all of the teams do a fantastic job with the long, long moves. We don't typically end up talking much about them, but it was a little bit of an impact for Lear South. But once again, the opportunity at Lear South is as we transition out of District 1 and into District 2 in the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year, we're going to see a meaningfully improved coal seam thickness. SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT THICKER THAN WHAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED HERE SINCE THE LONG WALL STARTED IN DISTRICT ONE SO WE FEEL REAL GOOD ABOUT THAT MOVING FORWARD SO YOU KNOW ONCE AGAIN WE'LL MANAGE THROUGH THAT AND EXPECT VOLUMES TO IMPROVE AS WE GO FORWARD IT'S RELATED TO COSTS OBVIOUSLY YOU'RE IMPACTED BY THE VOLUME SO WE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN THE COST AS WE MOVE FORWARD into Q2, you know, we would expect somewhere, you know, getting back into the mid-80s, like $86 a ton type range as we go forward according to our plans moving forward.

Very helpful, John. I appreciate that. And then maybe just one more, if I may. Paul, you mentioned, I think, according to some market sources, some small coke and coal mines, you know, may have idled. Do you think we need more of this to support or even drive U.S. met coal prices higher and Maybe where do you guys peg the marginal cost to met coal ton these days?

Nate, I think the source of our statement is we're getting a lot of people showing up at the door looking for jobs. It's a pretty direct data thing. If I look at the marginal cost, and I think we've talked about this many times, if you look at the Most of our peers are in, call it that 110 to 120 range. We've got mines that are probably plus or minus 10 or 15 of that. We are right at the marginal cost at this $220 high ball A price. And you have to remember that some of those mines are not producing high ball A. They're producing high ball B or lesser bet products. So I think that's what you're seeing is these marginal mines right on the edge are starting to drop out. It's just a general slowdown across the East. Frankly, I don't wish harm on anybody, but it is good for the industry, I think. It's keeping things in check. We're built for this, I think. We're low-cost. We have a high-quality product. I think another quarter or two of this would not be bad.

So, Nate, you're looking at $195 right now, high-volume beans. you know, and that's for metric in the vessel on the US East Coast, you know, if you, you know, agree with our assertion that, you know, the marginal cost of production might be in that sort of 135, even 140 range, you know, 195 high ball B for metric backs down to, you know, once you include the rail rate, something, you know, something that makes that marginal producer cash negative at this point. And while, look, we've only seen, you know, some very small indications of rationalization. You know, the prices have been at these levels for a very brief time. So, you know, certainly we believe this is going to be weighing on some of those high-cost operations if it persists. I would also add that, you know, you're seeing the same thing in Australia. As we continue to see news out of Australia, the way in which, you know, the mining costs continue to increase, the pressure related to the royalties, the significant sustaining capex you're seeing, I would say PLV, it's sort of the same issue. PLV is sitting at 240 today. And if you're getting straight PLV, you know, and you are a premier producer, you're making some cash. But I would say the marginal cost producers are struggling and an awful lot of them are not producing. premium low ball. They're producing mid-ball product or they're producing a semi-hard or a semi-soft. So, look, these do feel, these current prices feel very supportive. And the good news for us is, as a first quarter top producer, we make good cash in this environment. And so, you know, but as we look further out, you know, we do believe there's potential for some lift.

Very helpful, guys. Appreciate the time. Best of luck in the second quarter. Thanks, Dave.

Your next question comes from the line of Kaja Jancic from BMO Capital Markets. Please ask your question.

Hello. Thank you for taking my questions. First, on the METCO guide for second quarter, can you talk a bit more what would bring you to the lower versus the higher end?

You know, if you look at volumes in the Met segment, they're very dependent on vessels, right? So short tons, 80,000 ton of vessel, you know, very quickly, three or four vessels, you know, essentially covers that range and that spread that we have here. Clearly, the impact of the Baltimore Bridge and the collapse and the lack of access through Curtis Bay is significant. As we've indicated, the logistics team working with our partners utilizing the strategic investment at DTA have done a fantastic job of redirecting the coal flows. So far, those are going very well. A lot of what is encompassed in that range is going to be dependent on when the Army Corps of Engineers is able to get that deep channel reopened and get the flow of coal going again. know that range encompasses our assumption that based on what they're saying that this opens back up sometime towards the end of may um you know clearly there'll be a lot of additional logistic considerations whenever it reopens um and we'll continue to manage that but that's why we've got a little bit of a wider range um and you know once again it's just going to be dependent on timing but as we sit here right now we feel good that given the good start we've had managing everything since the bridge did collapse, that we're going to be able to hit within that range.

And, Connie, just to, you know, as Matt referenced, it is a heavy June schedule. So, you know, some of it can just come down to, you know, that last leg hand, that last 10-day loading window and what gets in and what gets out. But, you know, the fact that it's 1.9 and 2.2, I think, underscores, again, just how well the team is moving to redirect the boiling point.

I think a simple way to think about this, Newport News is about 300 miles further than Curtis Bay. So if you think about we got to send six trains a vessel plus or minus 300 miles, that's a sense of the additional rail capacity and the strain that it's under. So the timing of Curtis Bay reopening is pretty significant. A week or two will matter. either way with Curtis Bay as far as our volumes. I'll add to that just to kind of wrap up that discussion. Working with our rail service provider, they've done a wonderful job. That's a big shift for them in realigning kind of their flows of trains and power and people. So they've done a great job working to support and be responsive to everything that's happened with the tragic collapse of the bridge.

And finally, maybe one final point on this, which is But the fact is, as Paul said, it's a much, it's a meaningfully longer haul. The rate is not that different. Now, we do get, I mean, the rate's fairly equivalent. I will say through Curtis Bay, you know, included in the rate is the transload. If we go to DTA, we're, you know, we're charging ourselves there. So maybe you could say it's a $3 differential, but it's not that significant. We actually have some advantages when we move to DTA. some opportunities, blending, storage, et cetera, that are useful to us. So it actually ends up being a move that we're quite comfortable with, but it is a change.

And then let's say, I know you mentioned maybe a week or two delays or in reopening doesn't make a difference, but what if we see further delays potentially? What happens? What are your options?

Yeah, clearly we would continue to execute on the opportunity to continue to move coal through VTF. So that's primary, and that can be extended and extended meaningfully if it is a longer delay on the bridge. The team's also doing a fantastic job of looking at other alternatives and ways to move the coal. You know, we can midstream. We can get coal to the river and take it south down to the gulf. Um, they're evaluating opportunities actually, uh, to get coal, uh, on barges and, and, uh, through, through the port and the shallow draft of, of the Port of Baltimore and been streaming there as well. So, you know, they're evaluating those types of opportunities now. We're hoping we don't have to lean on any of those in a meaningful way, but clearly we can, we can continue to manage if this is an extended impact. I'll share with you. Every update we get through the Army Corps of Engineers has remained confident on that opening date. Some of the shallow channel work that they've done actually appears to be opening a little bit earlier than what they had been indicating. And so we feel confident that they're going to continue to work to hit those schedules and will be hitting them. But clearly, if something else happens, we're prepared and ready and actively looking at, if it does get extended, how we're going to manage.

Okay, and then maybe just to confirm, did you say that costs on the med side in the second quarter are going to be $86 per ton?

Let's call it somewhere in the mid to high 80 range. That's all going to be dependent on volumes and shipment levels and will be impacted even with the range of the shipment levels being described. The 1.9 to the 2.2, so.

But I think kind of the key here is, look, the 87 and 92 guidance that we provide, you know, still for the year, still feels very comfortable. Obviously, the 94 was a little high for Q1. We do believe as we go through the year that, you know, you're going to see us sort of move towards the sort of the middle of that range and may perform a little better, but, you know, we still feel very comfortable with that range.

And then just one more. On Lear South, are you still expecting around 3 million tons this year and then higher next year? Is that still fair?

Yeah, as we described, Lear South, we are very confident this year that we're going to be at 3 million tons. And then once again, the real benefit occurs in the fourth quarter when we move the district to where the coal is, you know, 15 to 20% thicker, that's going to allow additional production and volume that will carry over into 25, clearly, and beyond.

And Scotty, the way to think about it would be from a sort of a cadence perspective, if we were lower than rateable in Q1, Q2, Q3, we would expect to be around rateable, understanding there's always variability here, and then Q4, higher than rateable, which would bring us into that sort of 3 million times per year range. based on that case.

Perfect. Thank you so much. Thank you, Kevin.

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Dudas from Vertical Research. Please ask your question.

Good morning, gentlemen. Hi, Michael.

I appreciate your thoughts on the global MET call and the tightness, and you're seeing some out of the difficulty of supply coming out of the U.S. and elsewhere.

You're a little light. I don't know if there's a way to bump up that volume.

Can you hear me better now?

Yeah, perfect, yeah.

Okay, great. Thank you. Just wondering how your global MET customer base is feeling relative to some of the dynamics going on globally on a demand front, and maybe even kind of towards like the high value market and how you see that playing out, especially maybe going into next year or so, given the tightness that could occur in your high quality product. Are you shifting some of the interest levels to certain other regions or countries? Everybody's talking about India being very aggressive and have some opportunities relative to China. Maybe give a little sense of how that's flowing through from your marketing book.

Yeah, Mike, it's Dak, and thanks for that. You know, we've talked a lot about this, you know, continuing shift towards Asia, and absolutely we are seeing, you know, interest continuing to grow from new customers, new projects in Asia. Look, it's not like they're out there buying with great urgency right now, or you see that in the price, but in terms of the outreach and the engagement, that continues to grow. You know, we're talking to you know, multiple sort of potential new customers right now who are interested in not just, you know, the spot deal, but are interested in term business. So, you know, we do feel good about that. And so when you look at the overall fundamentals, you know, the fact is that hot metal production, as Paul referenced, in the world's three Chinas, up about 2% year-to-date. That's nothing, you know, heroic, certainly. But relative to where we were last year, bumping along the bottom in terms of hot metal output globally, relative to where we were in 2022 when it was down, you know, 10% or so. But we do see signs of life. We do feel like there are some positive indications. Chinese imports are, you know, are continuing to be strong and Chinese imports of particularly high quality seaborne cooking coal. So we've seen China, China was up 10 million times in terms of imports of seaborne coal last year and really stepping up again through the first, you know, few months of 2024. I would say there too, you know, we're growing interest from, you know, some of the world's largest skill makers in U.S. volumes and our volumes in particular. When we ask about high vol A, we certainly think there's a unique role for high vol A to play out there in a way that it facilitates, you know, better, you know, a better Coke product when you're, when you're, you know, using a lot of disparate products. But the fact is a lot of these customers are also just looking for high CSR coal and we can give them high CSR coal. So, you know, high vol A right now is, you know, is, you know, continuing to be sort of in meaningful demand, recognizing, again, that the buyers at this moment aren't feeling urgency, but the level of interest, you know, is significant. So, yeah, I think most importantly, we do continue to see, you know, those new glass furnaces that are being built in Asia actually come online and outreach to us about supplying those either in the immediate or the longer term.

And, Michael, I'll add to that. Just specifically with customers in the Hive All Aid product, the marketing team does a fantastic job of developing the relationships and then technically marketing that product. It's relatively new into the region. They've done a fantastic job of getting it introduced. Once customers start using it there, they view it as a very favorable product. It's something that then brings out repeat buyers for that specific product. product. And so we feel really good about the portfolio, that product, how it continues to get introduced and accepted, and how we expect it to continue to grow as we move forward in that fast-developing region. So, absolutely. You know, Michael, the simple answer is, I look year over year, we've added a significant number of new customers in Asia. Marketing team's done a great job, and What I really judge it on is these are quality customers also. These are large steel mills, and they're ones being built, you know, between Indonesia and Vietnam and Malaysia. And, you know, we're not selling to brokers. So I feel very strong about the position we're taking in Asia, and we're really building out that business. You're seeing it by the quality of customers we're picking up.

my just one final point just on the supply side which you sort of you know alluded to where's the coal going to come from look if you look back sort of you know the three big suppliers into the seaboard market australia the us and canada three big suppliers high quality cooking coal um in aggregate peaked in 2014. um we're down 45 million times you know those three countries in aggregate are down 45 million times since 2014. so Certainly, the demand is there. Not only do we see demand grow, but we see those supply constraints, you know, continually manifest themselves. So, again, pretty constructive on a long-term view, even though, as we always say, you know, we don't need a great long-term sort of demand story because the fact is we are a first-portal cost producer, but it is what we see playing out.

Mike, you might be on mute right now. Operators, you may want to.

Oh, yeah. No, I'm sorry. No, thanks for that, Doug. I just mentioned that the investment you guys made into the sales force and the marketing team in that region is certainly going to pay benefits. I'm sure we're seeing it right now. Thanks, guys.

Thank you. Thank you, Michael.

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call over back to Mr. Paul Lang, CEO. Please continue.

I want to thank you again for your interest in knowledge. As I noted earlier, we're sharply focused on driving continuous improvement across our operating platform in support of value-generating capital returns, especially as we lean towards better emphasis on share research. We believe that current market softness is acting to highlight the value of our low-cost book and call portfolios as evidenced by our substantial discretionary cash flow into the world. While at the same time, the tragedy in Baltimore showcased the nimbleness as well as the capabilities of our people in addressing such serious situations on a timely basis. With that, operator, we'll conclude the call. We look forward to reporting to the group in July. Stay safe and healthy, everyone.

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.