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spk02: Good morning and welcome to the Advance 6 Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touch-tone phone. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would like now to turn the conference over to Mr. Adam Kressel, VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
spk04: Thank you, Alan. Good morning and welcome to Advance 6's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. With me here today are President and CEO Aaron Kane and Senior Vice President and CFO Michael Preston. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at investors.advance6.com. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our business as we see it today. Those elements can change, and the actual results could differ materially from those projected, and we ask that you consider them in that light. We refer you to the forward-looking statements included in our press release and earnings presentation. In addition, we identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K, as further updated in subsequent filings with the SEC. This morning, we'll review our financial results for the third quarter of 2023 and share our outlook for our key product lines and end markets. Finally, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Advance6's president and CEO, Erin Kane.
spk01: Thanks, Adam, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your continued interest in Advance6. As you saw in our press release, Advantix navigated continued challenging market conditions in nylon solutions in the third quarter, while executing our larger planned multi-site turnaround for the year as expected. These factors overshadowed resilient performance within our acetone portfolio and solid results from our plant nutrients business in the seasonally slowest quarter of the year and amid lower nitrogen nutrient values and raw material input costs. The nylon environment has been pressured by unfavorable global industry supply and demand conditions for several quarters now and has approached trough industry spreads. In a global macro environment like this, our advantaged integrated business model, efficiency, and diversification serve us well. We have a demonstrated playbook to navigate these dynamics while maintaining our focus on smart, disciplined investments and a healthy balance sheet, which we have established to weather these conditions as reflected in our ongoing repurchases and an increased dividend. This past quarter, we had three one-time transactions, as highlighted in our press release, supporting our portfolio simplification and execution of our long-term strategies. First, we accelerated our exit from the alliance with Oban, a third-party producer of films for the flexible packaging industry, under previously negotiated terms. This move provides both meaningful economic value and reduces business and operating model complexity, while enabling us to focus on our capabilities in resin production and sales. Second, we had a non-cash asset write-down associated with a licensee of certain legacy ammonium sulfate technology operated at their fertilizer manufacturing facility. The licensee announced its intent to close its entire facility no later than August 31, 2024. And lastly, we made the strategic decision to exit certain low-margin oxymes products, namely AAO and MECO, underscoring our focus on profitability and sustainability. We expect a net neutral impact to 2024 earnings as a result of this exit. Through these actions, we are reducing complexity to ensure our investments and resources are aligned with supporting our customer success in areas of highest impact. This is core to our strategic approach to focus on accelerating profitable growth. We've begun executing to our multi-year expansion in granular ammonium sulfate production through our SUSTAIN program. We also continue to progress on grant funding from the USDA through the Fertilizer Production Expansion Program, which is in the midst of a public comment period to partner with farmers on innovative domestic fertilizer production. We have a proven track record of performance through a multitude of environments. We remain focused on what is in our control, including driving superior operational and commercial performance to meet the evolving needs of our customers, building capabilities to strengthen our innovation and portfolio resiliency, and executing against a balanced and disciplined capital deployment framework. Our organization's collective efforts are centered around driving best possible outcomes in the current set of dynamics. We believe that the underlying improvements we have made and smart investments we continue to make support long-term sustainable performance and returns for Advancics and our key stakeholders. Now let me turn the call over to Mike.
spk03: Okay, thanks Erin and good morning everyone. I'm now on slide four where I'll provide a summary of the third quarter 2023 financial results. Sales of $323 million decreased approximately 33% in the third quarter. pricing was unfavorable by 32% overall. Now, to break that down, market-based pricing was unfavorable by 24%. This primarily reflects reduced ammonium sulfate pricing amid low raw material input costs and a more stable global nitrogen supply environment, as well as lower nylon pricing due to unfavorable global supply and demand conditions. Raw material pass-through pricing was also a headwind, down 8% as a result of a net cost decrease in benzene and propylene. Sales volume declined approximately 1% in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $7 million. I will highlight the key year-over-year variances on the next slide. However, I would note that the net favorable $4.5 million pre-tax income impact of the three one-time transactions that Aaron mentioned earlier have been excluded from our adjusted EBITDA results as well as adjusted EPS. Included in the appendix of the earnings presentation are the reconciliation and financial details associated with these transactions. Adjusted earnings per share was a loss of $0.36. The effective tax rate was 20.7% in the quarter. We now expect our full year 2023 effective tax rate to be approximately 23%. And finally, free cash flow was negative $4 million in the quarter. Cash flow from operations of $21 million decreased roughly $38 million versus the prior year. Now, this was primarily due to lower net income and the impact of changes in working capital, with less cash generated from working capital in the third quarter of 23 compared to the prior year period. Capital expenditures of $25 million in the quarter increased $3 million versus the prior year. Now, let me turn to slide five. Here we highlight the key drivers of our third quarter adjusted EBITDA performance year-over-year. We saw an approximately $17 million favorable benefit from planned plant turnarounds year-over-year. As a reminder, this year's multi-site turnaround was primarily centered around our sulfuric acid plant, while last year's larger turnaround was focused primarily on our ammonia operations. And in 2024, we'll rotate back to our turnaround centered around our ammonia plant. In addition, plant and SG&A costs were a $6 million tailwind in the quarter year-over-year, driven primarily by lower natural gas utility costs and lower functional spend. In the current environment, we're executing levers in our control, including an increased focus on cost controls. Pricing over raw materials was a roughly $45 million headwind and was the primary driver of the earnings decline compared to last year. Tracking our key variable margin drivers Performance across our caprolactam and nylon portfolio over our key raws was a significant headwind year-over-year. Chemical intermediates price over raws spread was roughly flat year-over-year, as an increase in acetone margin over propylene costs was largely offset by performance across the remainder of our intermediates portfolio. And lastly, ammonium sulfate, on a net price over natural gas and sulfur basis, was up year over year as lower pricing was more than offset by a reduction in raw material input costs. Finally, volume and sales mix were approximately 4 million unfavorable in the quarter, largely reflecting higher nylon export sales this year compared to last. With softness seen across our key nylon end markets in North America, we continue to leverage various sales channels to meet demand where it exists, including a higher share of exports. Now let me turn the call back to Aaron.
spk01: Thanks, Mike. I'm now on slide six to discuss each of our key product lines. We'll dive into nylon solutions further in a moment, but the key takeaway here is that the declines we've been experiencing have continued. Global composite caprolactam over benzene spreads were down nearly 20% on a sequential basis in the third quarter and are now approaching prior trough levels. In the fertilizer space, we saw seasonal nitrogen fertilizer pricing declines in the third quarter. I would note that ammonium sulfate prices were much more stable than urea prices earlier in the year, so when urea was falling significantly, we didn't see a sharp of a decline in ammonium sulfate pricing, and conversely, haven't seen a sharp of a rebound either. Overall, fertilizer demand remains stable, and while global value chains continue to be more cautious in buying forward, our order position is very much in line with historical levels and we remain confident in solid ammonium sulfate demand as we approach the 2024 spring application. Underlying agriculture fundamentals also remain favorable. From a crop perspective, corn prices have seen some fluctuations with changes in projections of estimated planted acres, but remain healthy relative to historical levels. Farmer profitability expectations have also remained resilient. And while raw material input costs have seen reductions recently, costs remain relatively high in other regions, steepening the industry cost curve and supporting higher overall nitrogen fertilizer prices. So as we've navigated through a multi-quarter reset here and through the third quarter seasonal dynamics in North America, the underlying fundamentals continue to support firm fertilizer demand moving forward. Lastly, in chemical intermediates, industry-realized acetone prices over refinery-grade propylene costs continue to improve year over year in the third quarter, While acetone demand has seen softness, particularly into the large buyer end applications, we see supply is generally balanced. This has been supported by stable acetone imports into the U.S. and persistent lower global phenol operating rates on reduced demand into value chains serving building construction and other industrial applications. We also continue to monitor propylene costs, which declined again in the third quarter on weaker supply and demand. Our integrated operating model continues to serve us well in industry dynamics like these. Now across the rest of our intermediates portfolio, demand has remained soft. For our U.S. Amines business, which largely serves the ag chemical space, we've continued to face destocking headwinds as retailers and growers work through higher inventory. Let's turn to the next slide. We thought it would be helpful to spend a moment and take a deeper dive on the nylon industry given the significant change we've seen over the past few months and the impact it has had on our business. Overall, we continue to see global demand declines across most key end markets, leading to further margin compression in the industry. Here in North America, the higher interest rate environment has unfavorably impacted building and construction markets, as well as consumer spending impacting packaging applications like bone-in meat and protective packaging. In engineered plastics, auto had been a more resilient end market for us. However, the recent auto worker strike has reduced demand modestly. We continue to leverage various sales channels to meet demand where it exists. That does include a higher share of exports, both caprolactam and nylon resin, which does come from a mixed consideration for our performance. Exports represented approximately 13% of our total nylon solutions volume in the first half of this year and is anticipated to reach approximately 30% in the fourth quarter. This is in line with progression of the cycles experienced previously, which have historically lasted 18 to 20 months. Amid the soft-end market demand, increased competitive intensity is impacting global trade flows and pricing dynamics. We've seen China's global nylon exports reach all-time highs as their slower growth economy is leading to increased exports to the rest of the world, including Europe and North America, at lower prices. In these regions, both nylon imports and domestic supply have been competing for market share, with regional price premiums experiencing downward pressure from these low-priced import offerings. As you can see from the chart on the bottom left side of the page, The Asia industry caprolactam over benzene spreads are well below cycle averages and are approaching prior trough levels, as seen in both the 2015-2016 and 2019-2020 timeframes. They average roughly $650 per ton in the third quarter. Nylon resin pricing, which tracks as a spread to caprolactam, has followed suit. Given the pressure on pricing, we are highly focused on driving productivity to improve unit profitability. We also continue to promote and sell the value proposition of our differentiated nylon products, including our new post-industrial and post-consumer recycled offerings. Let's turn to slide eight. While future cycles may not be predicted by historical ones, we wanted to give some context and perspective to the industry performance for our key product lines over the last decade. As you may recall, we first presented this view at our 2021 Investor Day. In the presentation of these charts, is slightly different than our typical quarterly pricing charts. Here we are sharing industry spreads, those key spreads that connect to our core variable margin equations for the business. The caprolactam chart represents the Asia imports high long caprolactam price, less Korea benzene. The ammonium sulfate chart represents corn belt ammonium sulfate price, less natural gas and sulfur. And the acetone chart is a weighted average margin, assuming the split of acetone large buyer by two-thirds and a small-medium buyer by one-third over refinery-grade propylene. The cycles predominantly move with supply and demand dynamics and are inherently linked to underlying marginal producer cost curve economics. Do note there have been some structural changes in the markets over this period. These include caprolactam and nylon capacity expansions in China and U.S. ammonium sulfate and acetone anti-dumping import duties. As you can see, we have both short and long cycle considerations and all cycles do not move in sync. So what does this mean for our business? Despite the near-term challenges we're facing in nylon, we continue to focus our resources investments in areas of the business with highest value and opportunity. We're seeing that play out across our plant nutrients and chemical intermediates product lines, which don't have the same stick of quality profile as nylon. Similar to 2019, when our markets were facing a downturn, we continued to make smart investments to position our business for long-term sustainable performance. And we're doing that again now with investments across our IT platforms to support digital transformation, driving further improvements in operational performance, and supporting long-term growth through projects like our SUSTAIN program. Now let me turn the call back to Mike.
spk03: Okay, thanks Erin, and I'm now on slide nine. We continue to execute to a set of focus priorities to drive long-term shareholder returns by concentrating our resources and efforts around higher value components of our portfolio. The simplification of our portfolio supports our customer success in areas of highest impact. As mentioned earlier, we made the decision to accelerate the exit of our alliance with Oban, recording a gain of $11.4 million in the third quarter. Going forward, we will continue to supply resin to Oban while further developing our largest and most strategic customer relationships for growth across the product line. We also made the strategic decision to no longer supply specific low-margin Oxymes products, namely AAO used for crop protection and MECO used as a legacy anti-skinning agent for paints. Revenue and profit of these products are immaterial on an enterprise-wide basis, and the market outlook was challenged. particularly given investments required for future environmental compliance and other regulatory pressure. This exit will enable us to leverage a capacity release of CapriLactam and maintain a focus on our higher value Easy Blocks product, which is a drop-in replacement for MECO and Alkalid paints. We expect a net neutral impact to 2024 earnings as a result of this exit. Simplification enables us to focus our resources in the most profitable areas of our business. A great example of this is in our plant nutrients business. Our plant nutrients portfolio is a market leader and continues to support overall company performance and results. With sulfur demand remaining robust as a key nutrient supporting crop yields, we are committed to growing in this space through our multi-year sustain program. We anticipate reaching a first milestone of 68% to 69% granular ammonium sulfate conversion level by 2024 year end. Now let's turn to slide 10 to wrap up before moving to Q&A. As we look forward, we are operating in a challenging macro environment, particularly as it relates to our now-on-solutions business. Global PMIs remain in contraction, building and construction indicators remain subdued, higher interest rates have impacted a number of consumer-oriented end markets, and geopolitical risks have heightened uncertainty around the world. Now more than ever, the strength of our business model and our position as a diversified chemistry company will serve us well as we navigate the current set of dynamics. We've been here before and have proven that we can successfully deliver for our key stakeholders, including customers and shareholders. While we expect nylon industry margins to remain at prior trough levels through year end, we do expect more favorable fundamentals for plant nutrients and North American acetone to continue. CapEx for the full year 2023 is tracking to approximately $115 million, which reflects increased spend due to critical infrastructure, other maintenance, and growth in cost savings projects. We're committed to driving best possible outcomes in the current set of industry conditions and executing levers in our control, including a rigorous commitment to operational excellence, remaining disciplined on cost, optimizing working capital, and making smart investments to drive higher returns. Now with that, Adam, let's move to Q&A.
spk04: Great. Thanks, Mike. Alan, can you please open the line for questions?
spk02: We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your touchtone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then 2. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Vincent Anderson of Stifel. Please go ahead.
spk05: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So on the open partnership or alliance, as you call it, just wanted to get into the specifics on that because it sounds like you exited the partnership, but you're recording again. And then what specifically is the plan right now for maintaining your footprint in films given that, you know, that alliance was entered into to cover the closure of your Pottsville operation?
spk01: Yeah, I'm certainly happy to add some more color here and clarity. So what we are essentially doing here, Vincent, is transitioning the sales and distribution aspects of our alliance to OBIN, right? They are leaders in the film packaging business here. We will maintain our supply of resin to them, but it's really that front end. So if you think about the alliance, we were producing resins they were producing the films, and then we were bringing back and providing the sales and distribution in North America. So it's really that last piece that we are transitioning, and as a result, this was a potential contemplated exit in our original alliance agreement. And so we've moved forward on that transition, maintaining our partnership with them on resin supply, that's where our core capabilities are, and still maintaining access into that BOPA market. If you think about packaging for Nylon 6, it's about 10% of demand. Our profile of sales would mirror that sort of rate. And so, you know, again, here it's really just that end piece of the alliance being transitioned and fully, you know, over the next two years will fully transition out.
spk05: Okay. All right. That helps a lot. Thank you.
spk01: Yeah. I would add, too, I mean, we're working with them on continuing to pull through PCIR and PIR opportunities as well, co-branding. So, you know, really just think about how the mechanics of the alliance we're working versus an exit from a focus on an important end market for us.
spk05: Okay. Yeah. And that actually kind of bleeds into my next question. So, that's helpful. So, You know, as I think about this down cycle in nylon and Capro, how it might look relative to past cycles, I was hoping you could comment specifically on that new recycled content product with regard to whether you think that can be commercialized in a way that helps keep your mix of nylon versus, you know, probably your lowest margin product being flake Capro exports, keeping that mix meaningfully higher than in past downturns.
spk01: Certainly, we pull all levers we can through the downturn. You know, I would note, you know, hopefully, you know, we're thinking about that 18 to 20 month duration sort of when we cross over the mid-cycle range. We're about 12 months into that time period. You know, PCIR and PIR, you know, certainly is getting a good push. It has the opportunity with 10% of our total resident capacity to be available to be sold as certified in that capacity. We are putting effort behind the launch. Customers are intrigued by it, but in this realm here, seeing signs that are positive for packaging customers as well, but it is a space in general where folks are testing and understanding the value proposition through to the value chain, But it is getting a fair amount of focus, as you might expect from us.
spk05: Okay, so progress, but maybe next cycle to see a full benefit.
spk01: I think yes. I mean, I think we are pushing it, and again, we have that 10% opportunity. We have interest from customers. It's really now moving forward to get adoption and being able to sell that value proposition all the way through. And we can see up to 20% premium, though not across, you know, all end markets just yet. But we're moving in the right direction here.
spk05: Okay, excellent. And then just last one, I wanted to ask about the low margin oxymes. If I'm remembering the correct collection of pipes and valves at Hopewell, I think you said you were pretty footprint limited with regards to your ability to further expand, you know, your easy blocks capacity beyond your current plans. So I'm curious if this exit maybe frees up some space longer term to consider additional capacity of EZBlocks.
spk01: Yeah, we are not capacity constrained at this time on EZBlocks, and so have continued runway to allow that particular product to continue to progress. So again, these others in the portfolio, obviously EZBlocks is a drop-in replacement for MECO. It had a challenge outlook. as did AAL. So it was the right time and intersection of sort of market considerations and decision points to go ahead and just pull the trigger on that exit for us.
spk05: Okay. All right. Well, that's all from me. Thank you.
spk01: Thanks, Vincent.
spk02: The next question comes from David Silver of CL King. Please go ahead.
spk06: Yeah, hi, thank you. Good morning. Good morning. Yeah, a couple of, I guess, bigger picture questions, but first of all, thank you for providing the additional detail and perspective on the nylon and caprolactam fundamentals. I appreciate that. If I was picking up on kind of that continued decline in that caprolactam benzene spread. I'm just looking at that, I'm thinking, well, first I should ask you, but relative to where you were, say, at the beginning of the year till now, my assumption is that Advan6's advantage over the typical benchmark producer globally has probably widened over that nine-month period. In absolute terms, the spreads have narrowed, but maybe the gap between yourselves and the average global producer has probably widened, just given your greater exposure to fertilizer and probably a somewhat more favorable raw material positioning. I'll just ask that, but is that true, and are we seeing any reaction yet beyond, let's say, the one competitor that reduced some capacity in Europe earlier this year? I mean, have we reached kind of the pain point where further increments are being taken offline or other visible signs of, I don't want to distress or pain points being reached. Thank you.
spk01: Maybe just to provide some broad context for operating rates and see if we can unpack some of the dynamics. Certainly, as you point out, North American producers are in a better position, and certainly we maintain our leading cost position in Caprolactam. If you think about global operating rates, you've got about 84%, let's say, estimated rate here in America. Europe is struggling closer to about 40%. China is operating around 70%, and sort of rest of Asia, you know, 55%, 60-ish percent. You know, we have through these downturns, as you've indicated, seen subscale capacity growth. And smaller plants that were on the right-hand side of the cost curve have certainly folded. We've seen that with the Mexican operations. Certainly the Japanese plants have been under pressure. But if you think about sort of where the world is challenged, Europe certainly is feeling quite a bit of that impact as well. I think that since the start of the year, as you say, there has been a flattening, a bringing down of the value chain, but we also have the dynamics where in these cycles and in these downturns, the trade flows are shifting significantly. We see the exports from China. We typically lose the disciplined approach to marginal producer economics, so that puts And you can see in the one chart, too, where the global composite holds out for a bit, but as those impacts come into play, the trade flow shifts, the lower-priced import offerings come into play, those premiums do get compressed. And that's happened throughout this year as a result. So hopefully that gives a little bit more context to how the dynamic is unfolding.
spk06: Okay, thank you for that. I appreciate it. I'd like to maybe just shift over to the fertilizer side of things. I did take note of the earnings release for one of your major competitors in nitrogen fertilizer here. And I would say that the tone of their release was pretty upbeat, all things considered. And in particular, they talked about a very busy order book, you know, for this period of the year. So I was just wondering, you know, if you could maybe comment on how you see the order book for your next quarter, you know, post-harvest and maybe early spring if that's relevant. But how is your order book developing on the ammonium sulfate side here?
spk01: Yeah, I can reiterate that our current order book is robust. It would be consistent with historical levels. Certainly, we think about where we've been over the last couple of quarters. We're getting this reset off of very high nutrient values kind of resetting, as we had said, as we come through. The supply chain was in a good spot post the spring season. We progressed through that reset into fall fill based on the new sort of environmental context. And so we are happy with our order position and I think have continued to set a good order rate through fall. And we believe that as we head into spring, you know, things will continue to be robust. And, you know, I would note in our public postings that we have continued to take price up several times from our fill level. So, you know, we're progressing through, you know, the new season as expected.
spk06: Okay, very good. And then maybe one last one more broadly on your chemical intermediates portfolio. So I'd like to maybe talk about – you know, not the acetone, but maybe the balance of the products there. And in particular, maybe the products you've taken control of via the U.S. amines acquisition, sorry. But, you know, broadly speaking, I mean, the specialty nature of a lot of products, you know, tend to manifest themselves most clearly in kind of softer economic environments. In other words, it's easy to maintain, easier to maintain prices and margins when fundamentals are reasonably, you know, balanced to tight. You know, given the softer industrial environment for a prolonged period right now, I mean, how would you say the overall, you know, demand and I would just say margin resilience of you know, your broader chemical intermediates portfolio, you know, is right now? I mean, how, you know, how sturdy or how resilient would you say the broader chemical intermediates portfolio, including U.S. amines, has been? Thank you.
spk01: Sure. And if we think about the areas of intermediates, certainly in the higher value applications and higher value end products, You know, we think of things like NATO going into, you know, electronics and specialty solvents. And as you mentioned, we think of, you know, the U.S. means portfolio, like you also call it out. And certainly, you know, I would say there the dynamic is, just as you would say, the pricing and the margins are resilient and do hold up because the value proposition of the chemistries are such as that. What we are seeing is more of the demand decline impact here. And so, you know, we think about the ag chemical space for U.S. amines, selling MEPA through into that chain. You know, volumes are down about 30% from the five-year, you know, average cycle. So that does have, you know, an impact. And it's mostly the destocking, you know, associated with last year's season that continues to play forward. Whereas in you know, a product like Nadone that's just more general sort of consumer demand considerations and cycles there. So, you know, I think you're right here where our overall results, you see a large pricing and not so much of a volume consideration on our large-scale product lines. These more specialty ones, the pricing holds, the margin holds, and we're seeing more of that demand impact.
spk06: Okay, great. Thank you. I'm going to get back in the queue. Thank you.
spk02: Thanks, Dave. Our final question comes from Charles Nievert of Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
spk00: Good morning, guys. Just one quick question. When I look at the split of earnings among the different segments that you guys report, it sounds clearly like the biggest impact has come in the nylon capital area and the other two have generally held up. So if we're looking at round numbers, the X, the, the turnaround. So we're looking about round numbers, $35 million of EBITDA X turnaround. What would this, how do you look at the split now versus the way the split was maybe in a, in a substantially better time? Meaning if I've got 35 round numbers of, divided equally among the four major segments you report, round numbers, it's eight per, nine per. I mean, how does it look now and how does it look in a more, for lack of a better term, normal situation? I mean, where the profitability is coming from?
spk03: Yeah, so I think the themes are pretty consistent, right? And we shared, Charlie, on the call here, the year-over-year bridge and you know, the consideration around price raws for nylon being the largest year-over-year, you know, headwind from a consideration perspective. Whereas when you look at price raws for both ammonium sulfate and chemical intermediates, ammonium sulfate net of natural gas and sulfur actually being positive year-over-year, and then intermediates being relatively flat. So it's really a nylon story. So relative to, I would say, A normal, more normalized, you know, performance, you know, nylons, you know, mix in this because of the headwinds would be a bit lower, right, relative to the other product lines. And I would say, you know, acetone has been performing well, margins there being probably a greater mix of the total. And ammonium sulfate, despite the reset that we've seen here from the first half into the second half and, you know, a bigger seasonal impact, on a relative basis, still performing well and providing good returns and good income performance for the business.
spk00: Then when I look at ammonium sulfate now, sales going forward into next year, those are largely going to be U.S.-based sales as opposed to LATAM, which is sort of the off-season sales. So we've now sort of shifted over to predominantly U.S. and therefore more granular in the mix.
spk01: Yeah, I mean, certainly when you think about the first half sales, right, it does have, you know, that geographical consideration of more sales into North America because that's the primary season and, as you say, the granular piece, which is, you know, an important view as we continue to grow our granular conversion from, you know, 65%, you know, upwards to another, you know, 3% to 5% targets here for the year.
spk00: Got it. Now... In terms of the sales, there's a premium granular over standard grade, and you're beginning to sell, I guess, a little bit more granular into the non-U.S. markets. Is that getting the same sort of premium that you would typically – I mean, the price point itself may be lower, but the premium over standard grade, is that still in there even on the sales that are non-U.S.? ?
spk01: Correct. That's important for us to think about. But most of our incremental sales for the expanded granular conversion programs is for targeting growth in the U.S. Sulfur nutrients continue to grow here. So again, that is primary to help the U.S. farmer to help U.S. productivity. And so we anticipate that the primary market will be here.
spk00: Two more quick things. You have a Can you give me some indication about, you talked about operating rates globally. Are you guys in line with the U.S. operating rate? Are you a little bit better? And this is in the capital area. A little bit better than the operating rates in the U.S.? A little bit worse? You know, where do you guys stand?
spk01: Yeah, on capital actam rates, we continue to, you know, progress, you know, at or slightly above depending on, you know, how we're running. But that's always been our You know, our opportunity set, Charles, as you know, that, you know, we have that opportunity set given the global cost position. You know, it can fluctuate, like I said, with the planned turnarounds and, you know, other considerations. But that's always our target, and we're holding in there.
spk00: Got it. And last question is, on the nylon side, with all the exports coming out of China that you're seeing, are they sort of Direct competition for the nylon versions that you produce, or they tend to be at the commodity end, but they're dragging prices down across the board and obviously taking some volume? I mean, how are they competing? Clearly, I don't think they can do the same sort of level of higher-end grades that typical North American producers get. So how do you see their product in the marketplace? Is it, like I said, just commodity grade that's a price drag, or are they taking volume from others, or what's going on there?
spk01: So, you know, we do see the exports from China and, you know, broader Asia, right, as the trade flows have shifted here. I would say that their offerings are primarily looking to compete strongly in engineered plastics, right? So these are, you know, also sort of base compounding resin, you know, offerings. And so, you know, if you think about just with the trade flows, just with where they're willing to offer, you know, again, and losing, you you know, a bit of the discipline to the marginal producer, you know, cost dynamic in a, you know, in a stronger market, that just kind of pulls pricing down across the board, creates that pressure to regional premiums, and that's mostly, you know, the dynamic that we have. You know, in packaging and fiber and filament, we do have an edge in quality, and that helps a bit, but certainly just overall pressure on the pricing side just exists with this dynamic.
spk00: Great, thanks very much.
spk01: Thanks, Raul. Thank you.
spk02: Once again, we have David Silver from CL King. Please go ahead.
spk06: Okay, thank you. Just one last one, and this would be, I guess I'm just kind of taking a temperature on M&A opportunities. In this release, you talked a fair amount about portfolio simplification in the current weaker environment. And my sense is that many other companies are trying to do some of the same things. And in that environment, I mean, maybe a business that – doesn't fit in a larger organization, might be a very tight fit with what you're doing in specialty intermediates or other areas. You've maintained a pretty healthy balance sheet as well during this period. So how do you view the opportunity set for maybe an opportunity to bolt on some products or product lines that might help you in terms of breadth or geographic positioning or maybe production assets. Are you going to be maybe continuing to fine tune your own portfolio or is there the opportunity to maybe see what might be available?
spk01: Yeah, certainly. You know, I might, you know, start with contextually, right, you know, our capital allocation approach and priorities, you know, remain, you know, consistent, right? We're committed to leveraging and using the disciplined approach to allocation to deliver strong and sustainable TSR over the long term. So, you know, as noted in our action, certainly we want to make sure that, you know, first We are making smart decisions on our portfolio, and there are opportunities to continue to reflect and refresh those views. Our base CapEx is important, that run and maintain HS&E Capital to sustain the business. Our growth and cost savings CapEx, investing in ourselves is always a great place, and you see that in our commitment to the Sustain program. and plant nutrients overall, given its profile, will continue to be an area where we look to accelerate our profitable growth opportunities. We have a return of cash to shareholders. As you say, accretive M&A has always been part of our framework. Certainly, it is an area where we continue to evaluate opportunities. This is an interesting time relative to that, but I think certainly We are not the only company who reflects on their long-term view, what's right in the fit of the portfolio and where the opportunities sit. So we have a framework. We continue to look at opportunities, again, for value chain integration, where we can drive profitable growth and molecule and product upgrades. Again, broader expansions with bolt-ons, things that will leverage our core strengths and expertise to strengthen our core geographic positions. And so these are things, but certainly making sure things are free cash flow, creative, and fitting our financial profile of the future is important as well. So we continue to look, but certainly navigating and pulling through and investing in ourselves is core through this down cycle and ensuring that as we come out of it, that we have continued to build a stronger business that will perform with higher through cycle profitability and and a larger base to grow from.
spk06: Thanks very much. I appreciate the perspective.
spk05: Thanks, Dave.
spk02: This concludes our question and answer session. I would like now to turn the conference back over to Erin Kane for any closing remarks.
spk01: Thank you all again for your time and interest this morning. While there are puts and takes across our end markets and broader macro uncertainty, we are focusing on executing what is in our control. We have a demonstrated playbook and track record, as well as a healthy balance sheet to navigate these dynamics, and we'll continue to position our business for long-term sustainable performance. With that, we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Stay safe and be well.
spk02: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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