AdvanSix Inc.

Good day and welcome to the Advance Six second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, Please press star, then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Adam Kressel, Vice President, Investor Relations, and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Debbie. Good morning, and welcome to Advance Six's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. With me here today are President and CEO Erin Kane and Senior Vice President and CFO Patrick Day. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at investors.advancix.com. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our business as we see it today. Those elements can change, and the actual results could differ materially from those projected, and we ask that you consider them in that light. We refer you to the forward-looking statements included in our press release and earnings presentation. In addition, we identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K, as further updated in subsequent filings with the SEC. This morning, we will review our financial results for the second quarter, 2026, and share our outlook for our key product lines and end markets. Finally, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Advance Six's president and CEO, Erin Kane.

Thanks, Adam, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us here today for our quarterly call. As you saw in our press release, our resilient second quarter results reflected a significant sequential improvement in earnings and cash flow amid what remains a highly dynamic macro environment, particularly in plant nutrients. Patrick will dive into the financials in a moment, but I would like to start the discussion today framing our key strategic priorities. To drive through cycle value creation and support total shareholder return with higher highs and higher lows, we remain focused on commercial execution, operational excellence, and disciplined capital deployment. These are the controllable levers that are critical to anchor our performance. On commercial execution, We continue to focus on winning with customers to profitably fill our plants and shifting product mix towards higher value applications. Our commercial teams continue to leverage both formula and market-based pricing mechanisms to recover inflationary raw material costs. In the quarter, strong pricing across plant nutrients, chemical intermediates, and nylon solutions all set higher sulfur, benzene, and propylene costs. Importantly, our year-over-year net price overall's impact was neutral in the quarter, which is a notable improvement from the first quarter headwind. On operational excellence, we are well positioned through our integrated asset base, global low-cost position, and continued focus on productivity. Our base capital investments support safe, stable, and sustainable operations. As we discussed on prior calls, our ammonia turnaround was moved to the second quarter and scoped to align with our suppliers' natural gas pipeline inspection. We are pleased to share that we executed to our expectations. Lastly, we are focused on generating meaningful operating cash flow to support disciplined capital deployment. From a working capital perspective, our cash conversion cycle benchmarks in the top quartile among peers. Our significant runway of opportunity on 45Q carbon capture tax credits also supports future cash generation. As we allocate capital, our discretionary organic investments target greater than 20% returns. Our sustained growth program is generating returns in excess of 30%, and we remain on track to deliver product mix optimization with 75% ammonium sulfate granular conversion. This is an important milestone as we continue to align our production output with growing demand for sulfur nutrition. We will continue to ensure a well-managed balance sheet that will afford the investments for performance and growth. We continue to expect improved earnings and cash flow in the second half of the year compared to the first half as we build momentum into 2027. While the near-term market environment has been mixed, Our durable competitive advantage, portfolio resiliency across a diverse set of end markets, and our long-term positioning for growth underpin what we believe is a compelling investment thesis for Advancix. Let's turn to slide four. Based on our expectations coming out of the first quarter earnings call, a number of items played out as anticipated. Notably, the sequential improvement in net pricing over rising raw material costs was a primary driver of our earnings improvement. Both nylon solutions and chemical intermediates performed at or better than our expectations with strong commercial performance and mix optimization supporting margins. Plant nutrients volume, however, was lower than anticipated. The spring planting season saw significant increase in grower input costs while crop and grain prices remained steady at lower levels. This unfavorably impacted farmer profitability and resulted in a reduction of fertilizer consumption overall. Despite these challenges, we ended the full fertilizer year at near record volume performance for domestic granular ammonium sulfate. Lastly, our utilization rates were lower on operational performance, including the impact of our ammonia plant turnaround. With that, I'll turn to Patrick to discuss the financials.

Thanks, Erin. I'm now on slide five to discuss our results for the quarter. Sales of $421 million increased approximately 3% versus the prior year, comprised of 18% favorable pricing, partially offset by a 15% decline in volume. Raw material pass-through pricing was up 13%, following a net cost increase in benzene and propylene. Market-based pricing improved 5%, primarily driven by an increase in plant nutrients, reflecting higher nitrogen pricing amid increased sulfur input costs. Lower sales volume was primarily driven by more challenging agricultural fundamentals, including farmer economics, which resulted in a reduction of in-season fertilizer purchases. Adjusted EBITDA was $32 million, down $24 million from last year. I will highlight the key year-over-year variances in a moment. Adjusted earnings per share of 19 cents declined $1.05 versus the prior year. The higher effective tax rate compared to last year was driven primarily by 45Q carbon capture tax credits claimed in the prior year period and changes in taxable income. We expect the full year 2026 effective tax rate to be in the range of 10 to 15% prior to any additional 45Q claims. On a sequential basis compared to the first quarter, earnings and cash flow improved significantly. with tailwinds across the portfolio from net favorable pricing over raw material input costs. So overall, a testament to the commercial performance in the first half of this year. Now, let's turn to slide six. In the quarter, we drove pricing improvement across the portfolio on both a year-over-year and sequential basis. This was supported by higher raw material pass-through pricing as well as an increase in market-based pricing. The primary driver of lower volume both year over year and sequentially was plant nutrients due to the in-season dynamics we observed. To a lesser extent, we saw modestly lower volumes quarter over quarter in nylon solutions and chemical intermediates. Across nylon solutions, resin volumes increased year over year on improved operational performance while CapriLactam volumes moderated in a soft demand environment for carpet applications. We saw a reduction overall in export volume sequentially in the second quarter. A more constrained production environment, including the planned turnaround activities, shifted our focus to serving our North American customers. Consistent with our ongoing operating approach, we evaluate the optimal product and geographic mix to ensure the best economic outcome for the integrated enterprise. Let's turn to slide seven. Here, we highlight the key drivers of our second quarter adjusted EBITDA performance year over year. We completely offset the significant raw material cost increase in the quarter through commercial execution and pricing actions. We thought it was important to highlight in this environment the magnitude of the input cost inflation that we were able to offset through pricing in the quarter. As you can see on the right side of this slide, raw material costs were a headwind of $72 million in the second quarter on a year-over-year basis. This was primarily driven by rising benzene and sulfur prices. We were able to fully recoup that impact through strong commercial execution with favorable market and pass-through pricing across the portfolio. On a sequential basis, while we incurred a $10 million headwind in one queue, we saw that flip to a $39 million tailwind in two queues. This was also supported by strong pricing in each business line, more than offsetting rising benzene, sulfur, and propylene costs. Natural gas costs were seasonally lower in the second quarter as compared to the first, which is typical for our business. Now back to the bridge on the left side of the chart. Volume represented a $17 million unfavorable impact, primarily driven by lower sales in plant nutrients in the face of more challenging agricultural fundamentals, including farmer economics. Operationally, we saw an approximately $4 million unfavorable impact from the timing of planned plant turnarounds. Lastly, all other items netted to a $3 million headwind with the impact of reduced production output partially offset by lower SG&A as planned. Let's turn to slide eight. On the left side of the page, we've shown our first half free cash flow generation for 2025 and 2026. Our year-to-date performance is largely tracking to last year. when taking into account approximately $26 million of insurance proceeds in the prior year period. Working capital, although improved year over year, has been a seasonal use of cash in the first half as expected. The primary driver of the improvement was disciplined inventory management. As we've shared previously, there is non-linearity in our cash flow on a quarterly basis. As we look forward into the second half, we anticipate significant sequential improvement, notably as a result of our reduced CapEx run rate, working capital tailwinds, including our fourth quarter pre-buy program in plant nutrients, timing of annual payments paid in the first half, and 45Q cash tax credits. Let me turn the call back to Erin.

Erin Kane- Thanks, Patrick. With the moving parts in our end markets, let's first take a deeper dive into what we're seeing in the plant nutrients market and specifically sulfur input costs, which have been key drivers of our first half performance. We realized lower in-season plant nutrient sales as a result of reduced grower application of nutrients. Ammonium sulfate demand softened significantly in 2Q after strong early season purchases, As farmers prioritized applying nitrogen in the peak of the season above all nutrients, most notably ammonia. As the season progressed, growers applied fertilizer, including ammonium sulfate, based on purchases and inventory that was in the channel. Despite weaker in-season sales, we still achieved one of our strongest fertilizer year performances in terms of total domestic granular volume. It is clear that we structurally improved our output and mix supported by our sustained growth program. From an input perspective, sulfur costs have moved up to record highs over the course of the last year. It is evident that elevated sulfur prices, amplified by the conflict in the Middle East, created demand destruction across the industry, most notably in phosphates, which represent approximately 50% of sulfur demand. The Tampa sulfur market closed at another record of $705 per long ton in the third quarter, following $655 per long ton in the second. Third-party industry experts are forecasting a roughly $200 decline in sulfur prices entering 2027, which will be a tailwind for the next planting season amid what is likely tighter domestic ammonium sulfate supply. As a sensitivity for impact to AdvanSix, every $100 per long ton change in sulfur raw material price equals an approximately $35 million cost impact on an annual basis. In this environment, we have flexed optionality to incrementally increase ammonia sales availability based on market dynamics across the entire value chain. Our plan for the full year 2026 is expected to be up 30% on ammonia sales volume compared to 2025, which was a prior record year. This reflects our ongoing de-bottlenecking efforts and the benefit of targeted replacement maintenance capital investments over time. With our positive experience securing our existing USDA grant in support of our SUSTAIN program, we're now planning to apply for their new fields grant to expand our ammonia capacity and increase nitrogen nutrition availability for domestic farmers. In addition, our previously announced DES project is progressing through its evaluation phases as planned, and if moved forward, would unlock more value off our integrated ammonia platform. Let's turn to slide 10 to highlight what we're seeing across the rest of the portfolio. Moving beyond ag to our key nylon end markets across building construction, engineering plastics, and packaging, North American demand has not materially changed. Global pricing has moved up with higher input costs, while raw material shortages, logistics constraints, and lower operating rates in China have tightened supply. Similar to nylon, end market demand across chemical intermediates into construction, coatings, and downstream industrials has been broadly stable, Phenol demand remains soft overall, driving lower global operating rates, coupled with reduced acetone imports into the U.S., all of which are supporting tighter ammonium acetone supply and demand dynamics. Let's move to slide 11. Looking ahead, we have line of sight to several drivers in place to support second-half sequential EBITDA and cash flow improvements. On earnings, we expect benefits from the absence of the first quarter winter storm impact and the completion of our larger plan turnaround in the second quarter. We continue to target approximately $10 million savings exiting 2026 from our multi-year non-manpower fixed cost reduction program. In nylon solutions, we expect steady volume performance and continued focus on price rolls expansion through disciplined commercial execution and mix optimization. In chemical intermediate, We continue to expect cycle average performance for acetone spreads, while our other products in the portfolio are performing to expectations. In plant nutrients at this point in the year, we've historically realized a $10 to $15 million sequential headwind on earnings due to the reset of the North American fertilizer year, beginning with the fall fill program. This year, we expect the impact to be greater given pricing dynamics amid higher sulfur input costs that have impacted the fill program outcomes. Due to the software late-season demand as discussed, there was fertilizer inventory left in the channel, which prompted competitive intensity as players, including traders of imported and other domestic volume, sought to liquidate their positions without regard to producer economics. While this has near-term impact, we remain focused on serving our customers with the strong software nutrition value proposition we have long built through sound agronomic research and grower yield benefits. Moving to cash, there are several tailwinds, which Patrick highlighted, supporting our stronger second half performance. Let's turn to slide 12 before moving to Q&A. We remain confident in the through-cycle valuation opportunity at AdvanceSix. Our unique combination of assets and business model are core to our durable competitive advantage and long-term positioning. Key to our strategy is a focus on the levers we control, commercial execution, operational excellence, Cash Generation, and Discipline Capital Deployment. As we move through the remainder of 2026 and navigate the current industry environment, we are well positioned to support our strategic priorities as a US-based integrated manufacturer aligned to domestic supply chains and energy markets, as well as a diverse set of end market applications. We believe the actions we're taking and strategic priorities ahead support AdvanSix to deliver improved performance and sustainable long-term value. With that, Adam, let's move to Q&A.

Thanks, Erin. Debbie, can you please open the line for questions?

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Pete Osterland with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. So just wanted to start on the comment on running Hopewell at lower rates than you expected. Was this a market-based decision driven by ammonium sulfate demand, or were there any operational delays coming out of the turnaround? And then also, maybe if you could size just how far below your optimal rates you're running and how much line-of-sight you have into when conditions would be supportive of raising operating rates.

Yeah, thanks for the question, Pete, and good morning. Certainly in the quarter, we would have had Hopewell running around mid-70s, consistent with other turnaround quarters. So a large majority there would have been really being constrained through our ammonia production, which has implications on the full value chain. And as we proceed forward, obviously we're focused on as we've shared, running the assets to the demand. So as you've seen, certainly our Chesterfield operations are improving year over year in operational performance. That's important there. And then obviously we're continuing to evaluate really the economics given the environment on both how we think about monetizing ammonia and sulfuric acid in the environment for ammonium sulfide. But we have to take the full enterprise chain all the way through to the mix to make those best decisions. So it's kind of an ongoing opportunity set for us to optimize.

Okay, understood. And then a lot of moving parts with pricing versus raw materials, but just following the full offset of pricing versus raw in the second quarter, do you have an estimate or a range you could share of what you expect the net impact would look like in the third quarter just based on what you can see right now?

Certainly, as we've shared, I can start and then Patrick can jump in as well. Given where sulfur has landed, I think that's going to be the largest headwind vis-a-vis certainly where ammonium sulfate pricing has reset in the fall-filled program. Benzene and propylene are going to move with oil, and certainly we have moving parts there based on really how the Middle East is impacting that on a regular basis. So when you think about the pricing mechanisms, you know, the formula and pass-through definitely play more to benzene being passed through in the formulas, you know, mechanistically. So it's really going to be, you know, how the sulfur plays out relative to the price performance.

Yeah, I think we highlighted in our comments the $10 to $15 million year-over-year headwind. That's currently the range we're working with and what we expect.

Okay. Very helpful. Thanks. So just wanted to finish with a couple questions on some of the cash tailwinds you're expecting in the second half. So just first on the ammonium sulfate pre-buy advances with some of the challenges around farmer economics and fertilizer demand that you called out. Do you expect the pre-buy in second half to be weaker than normal? And I guess, could you size what is normal and what are your expectations for how that is shaping up this year?

Yeah, at this point, you know, we would anticipate that it's a bit, you know, on one hand, a little too early to tell, right? We're just, you know, getting through the fall fill. Obviously, this is something that we generally see as steady demand, you know, every winter. You know, at this point with You know, nutrition, we're really kind of watching now the fundamentals and the guideposts, right? So we're watching the current crop demand, or sorry, you know, crop performance. You know, if you think about, we'll get more from the USDA this week. You've got certainly implications now that the corn rating has declined since mid-July, you know, a little bit more in line with 22 and 23 crops than the last two years. So, you know, how that plays into yield estimates, how that will play into Thank you for joining us. also see that ammonium sulfate will probably be a bit tighter as well as we move forward. I know as we sit here today, the input costs are not supporting, we believe, and what the feedback is from the industry that the marginal producer in the U.S. is not running. And so, you know, again, these are the things that we're going to continue to look at as we progress through Q3, Q4 and work to set up a constructive view as we get to spring. Thank you.

Okay, great. And then just lastly, on the reductions in CapEx for the second half, when you talk about risk-based prioritization, are these mainly deferrals of spending that at some point in the future you have to catch up on? And, you know, what kind of activities are we talking about? Just maybe some more color around that would be helpful.

Sure. When you think about sort of historical approaches, in many cases to, you know, repair maintenance as well as just capital savings, on that same view. A lot of the techniques are time-based, right? A piece of equipment goes in with an expected life. The reality is, you know, in today's views, you can use better data, have quantitative risk assessments. And so when we talk about risk-based, it's using better indications on when we should be tackling the repair and maintenance type capital in the assets going forward based on how we need them to run to meet demand. So, you know, I wouldn't think about it as a deferral where there will be a catch-up, but rather a overall reslating or reprioritization, right, using, you know, data, heuristics, and new just ways to prioritize where we spend, when we spend it, you know, across the enterprise. And so the back half just reflects, I mean, obviously, you've got a time lag here, right, for our actions to take place relative to the cash flow. So certainly the first half, The next question is from David Silver with Freedom Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Yeah, hi. Thank you.

Good morning.

I guess I just wanted to pick up maybe on

One of your recent comments about the lower operating rates for your overall production network and the opportunity, I guess, to gain some flexibility in what you're selling and whatnot. So you mentioned that the ammonia and the sulfuric acid units, in particular, maybe There's an opportunity there to sell more of those products just as they are as opposed to running them through your vertically integrated network there. But especially with the slower fertilizer season here, I mean, how are you thinking about maybe coaxing a little more Thanks for the question. Good morning, David.

Yeah, so that is definitely what we're trying to increase and certainly been core to a lot of our strategies across even expanding beyond the operational excellence of running our assets well, but creating more degrees of freedom and maybe more levers to flex on the optionality to do so. So certainly in the spring, the industry sold more ammonia than normal as it was the cheapest source of nitrogen. You know, we sold... Certainly more in the first half. Again, these are products that are, I would say, logistics sensitive, right? So there are freight logical, you know, reaches, if you will. And certainly where we sit in the mid-Atlantic, we have to optimize what we can sell there. But to put it in perspective, you know, we sold roughly 49,000 short tons in the first half up from, you know, 33 in the first half of 2025. And just to put that in perspective, while we shared at the end of last year, we had a record... Sales for ammonia, you know, we anticipate that as we project through this year, we'll be up 30%, you know, year on year for the full year. Now, obviously sulfuric acid as well as a freight logical product, we continue to look at that. When you think about the trade-offs, right, I would share with you it's not just as simple as, you know, do we – Thank you so much for joining us. operational approach for the back half of the year, you know, we're dialing into where that optimization makes sense. So, and we certainly are, we have a little bit of a knob, if you will, on how we can think about the AS to CAPRO lever, right? We built that through the COVID years and thinking about, you know, our own technology, and we certainly are, you know, looking to minimize that as well as an extra lever. So, it's a pretty integrated set of are all considerations, but that's how we're running it today.

Okay. And I stipulate it's a very complicated decision map, I guess, and not as easy as flipping a switch. But if anybody was aware of kind of how to tweak the system, I think it would be yourself and your team there. If I could just, and I apologize, I did have to step away at one point, but could I just get an update on the expectations for the Section 45Q credits? In other words, both when you might be booking an additional round of credits for 2026, and then when... You know, cash might be received from the credits that you claimed in 2025. Thank you.

Sure, David. Let me take that one. So, just as some background, our 2018 LCA is already approved by the IRS. This allowed us to claim the credits for 2018, 2019, and 2020, which we've done over the recent years. We have $18 million currently accrued on the balance sheet related to that LCA. Our 2021 LCA is still under review by the DOE and the IRS. We worked closely with them on an updated submission here in the second quarter to assure that they had all the required data that they needed. All four of these years are currently included in a broader audit by the IRS. As soon as that is resolved, We expect to receive the $18 million payment, and we're still targeting that for the second half of this year. And then once that 2021 LCA is approved, we will use the approved 2021 LCA to begin the credit refund process for those applicable years. And as a reminder, that can be used for up to three years. And at this point, look, all open items on our side related to the LCAs and audits are closed. We are here to be responsive to the IRS and our DOE in the event any questions come up as they may arise as they're completing their process.

Okay, that's great detail. Thank you, Patrick. Can I also just double check, but is the total Do you know what amount of credits that you're ultimately targeting? Is it still in that 100 to 125 million range, or has there been any variation based on the review by the federal authorities thus far?

No, no changes to that range at this point.

Okay, great. I would like to maybe switch over to the DEF opportunity that was highlighted a little bit last quarter. At the early stages of the process, I understand, but could you just provide maybe an update on the progress to date and Any changes or any notable developments that you would highlight at this relatively early stage?

Thanks, David. Certainly, the project remains on track and as planned. So, as you say, we announced it last quarter. We entered into the licensing agreement to assess the expansion of the platform. on our integrated mowing platform and certainly supply GEF into the growing market in the Mid-Atlantic and East Coast. So we continue to progress through our front-end engineering design work, and that's proceeding with our partners and still on track for that final investment decision targeted for the first half of 2027. As a reminder, this is a multi-year capital investment with We believe strong, attractive financial returns and align with our long-term value creation objectives. And upon a successful view here, the timing for full operations would be in 2029. So again, progressing as we anticipated. Obviously, we'll continue to keep you apprised. I would share, it was in the commentary, but lends itself, because I know you have asked the question in the path of, do we need more ammonia products? to produce DEF, which we don't necessarily. But it's been interesting. We are one of eight successfully performing USDA grant projects through Sustain. And with that credibility and certainly momentum we've built, the USDA has launched a new program called FIELDS, the Fertilizer Investment and Expansion for Long-Term Domestic Supply Grant, which we are planning to apply for relative to our ammonia really to expand our ammonia capacity and increase nitrogen availability for domestic farmers. So while, again, it wasn't necessary for DEF, this new opportunity has presented itself. Again, we have strong performance under the current grant. This grant is different. It actually is a one-for-one match on dollar spent, so it's 50% covered, whereas the current grant is only 20%. and we're pretty excited about the opportunity. We believe we have a more capital efficient program than what others have discussed. So more to come there, but just again, you know, the opportunities that we have on the Integrated Ammonia platform, you know, continues to provide real opportunity.

Wow, that's a little different. And, you know, just to clarify, and I apologize, but you're saying potentially a project to add or de-bottleneck ammonia capacity would be done 50% subsidies totaling about 50% of the estimated cost. Is that what field represents or did I misunderstand?

Yeah, that's the opportunity ahead of us. So, you know, the grant program was launched and, you know, applications are due and so we're working that, you know, at hand. So more to come there, but, you know, just wanted to, you know, to share that.

Yeah, very interesting. Okay, you know, just some comments. And again, I may have stepped away when Patrick was going over this. But just running kind of, you know, back of the envelope on cash flow generation or pre-cash flow prospects for the second half of the year. And, you know, you did highlight, I'm guessing, the – Thank you for joining us. What are the prospects for, you know, getting close to cash break even or so in the back half of the year?

Yeah, sure. I can give you a couple comments there. First, let me start with the plant nutrients pre-buy. I will say in Q4 of last year, comparing to the prior year, Q4 of last year, we were fairly selective in what we took in terms of pre-buy, excuse me, pre-buy, just given we knew some of the dynamics were happening around sulfur. So in terms of year-over-year comparison, I'd say that that's a relatively soft comparison point. We touched on CapEx. As we were talking through the CapEx details, really the way that our sequencing lines up on a cash basis with CapEx, we are more heavily weighted to the front end of the calendar. And then I think the last piece, too, we're looking at, Sequential Earnings Improvement, too, in the second half, which is obviously going to contribute some more cash as well. And I think just the last piece, we talked about payment timing, just the way the calendar year unfolds for us. We have some higher payments going out the door in the first half of the year. Insurance, for example, those invoices get paid on a timing basis earlier in the calendar year. So we have some timing due to that as well. But those are really your big drivers that get you back to the First half versus second half, sequential improvement in cash.

Okay, great. Thanks for the detail there. That's all for me. Appreciate the color.

Thanks, David. Have a great day.

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Erin Kane for any closing remarks.

Thank you all again for your time and interest this morning. We hope this call and discussion have clarified the key considerations that supported our second quarter performance and outlook across our end markets. The strength of our business model and our position as an integrated chemistry company will serve us well, and we continue to expect performance this year to demonstrate our resilience. With that, we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Stay safe and be well.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.