Atmos Energy Corporation

Again, press star 1. I'll now turn the conference over to Dan Mazur, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Thank you, JL. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me today are Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Chris Forsythe, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings release and conference call slide presentation, which we will reference in our prepared remarks, are available at atmosenergy.com under the Investor Relations tab. As we review these financial results and discuss future expectations, please keep in mind that some of our discussion might contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Act and the Securities Exchange Act. Our forward-looking statements and projections could differ materially from actual results. The factors that could cause such material differences are outlined on slide 37 and are more fully described in our SEC filings. I will now turn the call over to Kevin.

Thank you, Dan, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Atmos Energy. As Saturday is Veterans Day, I would like to take this opportunity to say thank you to the men and women who have served in our armed forces and those currently serving. Approximately 300 of our Atmos Energy teammates are a part of the nearly 20 million Americans who bravely served our country. Thank you all for your service. Yesterday we reported earnings per share of $6.10, which represents the 21st consecutive year of earnings per share growth. Chris will provide some additional color around our financial results later in the call. I will begin today's call highlighting a few of the many accomplishments achieved in fiscal 23 And we'll close with a few updates on key pipeline projects and some thoughts about fiscal 24. This past October 18th marked Atmos Energy's 40th anniversary as an independent company. We continue to build upon the past and focus on the future and be guided by the simple values laid out by our founding chairman, Charles K. Vaughan, of honesty, integrity, and good moral character. and supported for more than a quarter century by our culture, Atmos Spirit. These values, combined with the laser focus of our 5,000 dedicated employees on our vision, continue to benefit our customers, our communities, and the environment. I've said it before and I will say it again today. Our employees are the heart and soul of Atmos Energy and provide the foundation for the sustained, long-term success of our company. In fiscal 23, we continue to execute our proven strategy of operating safely and reliably while we modernize our natural gas distribution, transmission, and storage systems. Our fiscal 23 capital investment of over $2.8 billion supported the modernization of our distribution and transmission systems through the replacement of over 900 miles of distribution and transmission pipe and the replacement of more than 47,000 service lines. This investment also supported the strong economic development we continue to see in our service territories. In fiscal 23, we added nearly 61,000 new customers with over 46,000 of those new customers located here in Texas. And according to the Texas Workforce Commission, the state continued its streak of record employment for the 12 months ended September the seasonally adjusted number of employed reached a new record high at over 14.5 million. Texas again added jobs at a faster rate than the nation over the last 12 months, adding nearly 436,000 jobs from September 2022 to September 2023. According to a study recently conducted by Site Selection Group, The Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex is projected to add over 674,000 people by 2028 to reach 8.5 million. While the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown corridor is projected to add over 324,000 people by 2028 to reach 2.7 million. In fiscal 23, we continue to see good commercial growth as well. adding nearly 3,000 new commercial customers. Our industrial demand for natural gas in our service territories has also remained strong. In fiscal 23, we added 55 new industrial customers with an anticipated annual load of approximately 19 BCF once they are fully operational. The 19 BCF of annual usage is equivalent to adding nearly 367,000 residential customers on a volumetric basis. This growing demand from all of our customer classes demonstrates the value and vital role natural gas plays in economic development across our service territory. We continue to enhance the safety, reliability, versatility, and supply diversification of APT systems to support this growth during fiscal 23. We completed phases two and three of our four-phase, 104-mile Line S2 project. As a reminder, Line S2 brings supplies from the Amesville and Cotton Valley Shell Plays to the east side of the growing DFW Metroplex. Additionally, we completed the final 63-mile portion of our 137-mile, 36-inch Line X integrity replacement project. We also completed our third salt dome cavern at our Bethel storage facility. This cavern provides additional support to APT's operations and adds over six BCF of new working gas capacity. We remain on track to complete line PC by the end of the calendar year. This 22 mile, 36 inch line will connect the southern end of APT's system with the 42 inch Kinder Morgan-Permian Highway line that runs from Wauha to Katy. Our new line will support current demand and the forecasted growth as well as increase supply diversity to the north of Austin in both Williamson and Travis counties in Texas. Our customer support associates and service technicians continued their exceptional customer service and once again received a 98% satisfaction rating from our customers. The Atmos Energy team continues to build trust as they help nearly 62,000 customers receive over $29 million in energy assistance funds. Thank you team for taking exceptional care of our customers each and every day. Finally, through our Fueling Safe and Thriving Communities initiative, our employees made a difference in the lives of others by supporting schools and students with books, meals, snacks, as we also honored our healthcare workers, first responders, and helped our neighbors in need by supporting more than 1,400 nonprofits. And for over 200 local food banks and shelters, the financial and volunteer resources our team provided translated into nearly 5.5 million meals being served to our neighbors in need. And we continue to partner with Local Habitat for Humanity organization to provide families with zero net energy homes. These homes are designed to produce more energy than they consume through the use of high efficiency natural gas appliances, rooftop solar panels, and advanced insulation materials. We completed two new zero net energy homes in fiscal 23, and we'll have completed 12 total Z and E homes by the end of fiscal 24. These homes demonstrate the value and vital role natural gas plays in helping customers reduce their carbon footprint in a cost-effective manner is another way Atmos Energy fuels safe and thriving communities. I'm very proud of Atmos Energy and our full team and their many accomplishments in fiscal 23. I will now turn the call over to Chris to discuss our fiscal 23 financial results, our fiscal 24 guidance, and updated five-year plan through fiscal 28.

Chris? Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Our fiscal 23 earnings per share of $6.10 increased 8.9% over fiscal 22. Our performance continues to reflect a successful execution of our operating, regulatory, and financing strategies. In fiscal 23, we implemented $269 million in annualized operating income increases, excluding the amortization of excess deferred tax liabilities. These outcomes, combined with outcomes received in fiscal 22, increased operating income by $254 million this fiscal year. Strong customer growth, higher consumption, and rising industrial load in our distribution segment increased operating income by an additional $30 million. Consolidated O&M increased $55 million to $765 million, largely driven by higher levels of service orders and increased headcount to support our growing service territory, primarily in Texas. This thing came in at the lower end of our updated guidance range, as we saw some moderation in inflation in the third and fourth fiscal quarters. Fiscal 23 capital spending of $2.8 billion represented a 15% increase over the prior fiscal year. 85% of that spend was dedicated to improving the safety and reliability of our system. As a result of this spending, our rate base increased by 18%, which is an estimated $16.6 billion as of September 30th. Finally, we completed $1.6 billion in long-term financing and completed the securitization process in Kansas and Texas. We finished the fiscal year with an equity capitalization of 61.5% and approximately $2.7 billion of available liquidity, which leaves us well-positioned to support our future operations. Looking forward, our strategy continues to focus on system modernization through disciplined capital spending, seeking timely recovery of our costs through our regulatory mechanisms, while financing our operations using a balance of equity and long-term debt to preserve the strength of our balance sheet, mitigate financing risk, and minimizing the cost of financing to our customers. We anticipate the execution of this strategy will continue to support 6% to 8% annual earnings per share and dividends per share growth. For fiscal 24, we anticipate earnings per share will be between $6.45 and $6.65, and we anticipate fiscal 28 earnings per share to be in the range of $8.35 to $8.75. Additionally, Aetna Synergy's board directors approved a 160th consecutive quarterly cash dividend with an indicated fiscal 24 annual dividend of $3.22, an 8.8% increase over fiscal 23. This plan anticipates total capital spending of approximately $17 billion. This level of spending will continue to support rate-based growth of about 11% to 13% per year, which is expected to increase estimated rate base to approximately $29 billion in fiscal 28. In addition to our capital spending, another significant use of cash will be for taxes. We expect to refund $300 million in excess deferred tax liabilities over the next five years, with approximately 70% of this amount refunded during fiscal 24 and fiscal 25. and we anticipate we will become a material federal cash taxpayer within the next three years because of 15% corporate minimum tax that was included in the Inflation Reduction Act. Our O&M spending will continue to focus on compliance-based activities that address system safety. We have assumed O&M inflation of 3.5% annually through Fiscal 28 from Fiscal 23 levels. For Fiscal 24, we anticipate O&M to range from $780 million to $800 million. This five-year plan includes approximately $10 billion in incremental long-term debt and financing, which has been reflected in our earnings for sure guidance for both fiscal 24 and fiscal 28. Following the completion of our $900 million long-term debt issuance in October, our weighted average cost of debt stood at 4.1%, and our debt maturity schedule is very manageable. Our weighted average maturity is 18.4 years, and our next significant tranche of debt is not scheduled to mature until June of 2027. Additionally, our financing strategy does not contemplate material exposure to colluding interest rates. To further mitigate interest rate risk, we have $900 million in forward-starting interest rate swaps in place to hedge portions of our anticipated long-term debt issuances in fiscal 2025 and 2026. The effective weighted average rate of these swaps is 1.59%. Finally, we intend to continue utilizing our ATM program to meet our equity financing needs. As of September 30th, We have priced $467 million, which represents a significant portion of our anticipated fiscal 24 equity need. Timely recovery of our costs remains a key component of our strategy. We are off to a good start in fiscal 24. Since the beginning of the fiscal year, we have implemented $113 million in annualized operating income increases in our distribution segment. And we have five filings in progress seeking about $137 million. Included in this amount is $107 million requested in APT's general rate case. On October 24th, APT and the intervening parties filed a comprehensive settlement agreement with the Texas Railroad Commission. The settlement proposes a rate base of $4.3 billion, an authorized rate of return of 8.49%, equity capitalization of 60.44%, and an authorized ROE of 11.45%. We anticipate the settlement agreement will be on the Commission's agenda for its December 13th meeting. If approved as filed, the settlement would result in a $27 million increase in annualized operating income. We remain confident the execution of this strategy will continue to support our ability to modernize our system and to support the continued economic development in our service territories. Our customers will continue to benefit from this strategy, as we expect our average residential bill will remain one of the most competitively priced utility bills in our customers' homes. Thank you for your time this morning. I will now turn the call back over to Kevin for some closing remarks. Kevin?

Thank you, Chris. And as you've heard this morning, a successful fiscal 23 has us well positioned for fiscal 24. As part of our $2.9 billion fiscal 24 capital spending plan, APT will continue to focus on enhancing the safety, reliability, versatility, and supply diversification of its system. APT will continue work on the remaining 40 miles of the Line S-2 36-inch pipeline project, which we anticipate having the final phase in service by December of 2024. In fiscal 23, APT began a multi-phase Line WA Loop project that will install approximately 80 miles of 36-inch pipeline to fortify the northern part of the system that serves the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. Phase 1, approximately 24 miles, is anticipated to be completed by the end of this calendar year. Design is underway for Phase 2, which will install an additional 40 miles, and we anticipate that Phase 2 will be placed in service by the end of calendar year 2025. Phase 3 will include the installation of the final 16 miles, and we anticipate that that phase will be placed into service by the end of calendar year 2026. Additionally, in fiscal 24, APT will begin construction of a 54-mile, 36-inch pipeline from a Bethel storage facility to our Gross Beck Compressor Station to support forecasted growth in Williamson and Travis counties in Central Texas. We anticipate that the project will be placed in service by the end of calendar year 2025. Our gas supply team has us well positioned for this upcoming heating season. with supply reliability and at competitive prices. Our gas supply team has hedged 50% of our winter supply needs through a combination of storage and financial contracts at a weighted average cost of $3.31. I'm very excited about the direction and long-term stability of Atmos Energy. The foundation has been set with a proven safety-driven strategy, a company with organic growth, that yields 6% to 8% fully regulated earnings per share and commensurate dividend per share growth supported by a strong financial profile. We operate in a diversified and growing jurisdictional footprint that is supportive of investment in natural gas infrastructure, with 96% of our rate base situated in six of our eight states that have passed legislation in support of energy choice. We have a long runway of work to support the plan $17 billion in capital spending over the next five years as we continue to modernize our natural gas distribution, transmission, and storage system. As Chris noted, most of our fiscal 24 financing costs are known, and we have hedged $900 million of our financing needs beyond fiscal 2024. The strength of our balance sheet and available liquidity will continue to support our operations in a cost-effective manner for our customers. Focusing on long-term sustainability has always been a part of our strategy and is reflected in the vital role we play in every community, safely delivering reliable and efficient natural gas to homes, businesses, and industries to fuel our energy needs now and in the future. We appreciate your time this morning, and we now open the call for questions.

Thank you. If you have a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you wish to remove yourself from the queue, simply press star 1 again. One moment, please, for your first question. Your first question comes from the line of Nick Campanella of Barclays. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, everyone, and congrats on the anniversary here. Thank you, Nick. Morning. Absolutely. Morning. So I guess to start, you've been fairly programmatic in how you issue equity and acknowledging kind of, you know, 2024 is largely priced here as well. You know, how do we kind of think about future issuances, just given the size of the capital plan seems to go up every year, that's likely going to pressure equity higher. Are you still very comfortable that you can do this all with ATM or would you consider other means?

Good morning, Nick. It's Chris. Yeah, right now we remain pretty confident that we can still use the ATM to fund those equity needs. As you know, we have a balanced financing strategy. We're certainly looking at a number of factors. It's, you know, cost to the customer, strength to the balance sheet, which supports credit ratings, credit facilities, our ability to finance attractively in the capital markets, and equity is a component of that. So we're certainly looking at... you know, that particular tool. I mean, we have other tools available to us if needed, but at this time, given the liquidity that we have in the market, we believe we can satisfy those needs through the ATM.

Got it. That's super helpful. And then, you know, congrats on the APT settlement. I guess just are you reflecting that current settlement outcome in the 6% to 8% guidance here, or do you wait until December 12th?

Yeah, that settlement that has been contemplated in the guidance we issued yesterday.

All right. Thanks so much. We'll talk to you soon. Thank you.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Sunderland of JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning. Am I coming through clearly?

You are. Good morning.

Great. Thank you. Following up on the financing side, I'm just curious if 50% to 60% equity capitalization is still the target to think about, or is 60% more appropriate given the outcome on the APP side?

So we look at the balance sheet holistically across all of our jurisdictions as well as what we need to continue to support our credit ratings. So we have skewed towards the upper end of a 50% to 60% range now for the last few years. We're comfortable to be in that range, and that's kind of where we anticipate being over the next five years.

Understood. And then turning to the O&M side, you laid out a little bit of this in the script, but just curious if you could parse the recent O&M trends a little bit more. How much of 2H is moderation versus timing? And then how much conservatism is or is not baked into that 2024 outlook?

I mean, again, we've been at this 3% to 3.5% projection on O&M now for quite a long time. We feel comfortable in that range. As you know, we've used different levers over time when needed to mitigate any of the O&M pressures that we see coming down the road. And again, with some of the additional pullback in some of our service territories in the housing market, we've seen long locate costs come down. We've seen other compliance costs come down. So we remain confident as we head into 24 right now that what we have projected out there of the 790 to 800, we feel very confident in.

Great. Very helpful as always. Thank you for the time.

Your next question comes from the line of Gabe Maureen of Mizuho. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, everyone. Maybe if I can also stick on the O&M topic just a little bit. You addressed it a bit, but I noticed that maybe the long-term O&M guidance went a little, a smidge higher, but it sounds like you're very confident, at least in the near-term outlook, for serving your O&M costs. Can you just address that long-term guidance in the context of sort of what you're seeing near-term and why you felt maybe it looked like you needed to nudge it up a little bit?

Yeah, again, I'll reiterate what I said previously. There toward the last quarter, we saw some of the line locating requests drop down just a few percentage points in some of our jurisdictions, even though here in Texas we saw an 8% increase. So that's what we were looking at there. That certainly reduced some of our compliance costs. Then again, with some of the other compliance activity and timing of those sort of things, we think we've got a good handle on what the next year the three- to five-year window looks like on planned O&M activity, compliance activity, those sort of things. So those were some of the drivers we were looking at that came out of the last quarter and allowed us to stay in that 3% to 3.5% range, and that's $780 to $880 million.

Yeah, and, Gabe, I'll add to that. There's a lot of compliance work that we still have to do as a utility. You know, the rules continue to become more stringent, so we're anticipating some of that in the 3.5%. a little bit higher inflation than we've had in the past, although it has moderated somewhat in the third and fourth quarters. And as a final reminder, with our annual mechanisms that we have in several of our jurisdictions, we have the opportunity to recover that fairly timely, generally within a year. So it shouldn't be a significant drag if approved through those annual mechanisms as we anticipate.

Got it. And maybe if I can also ask in the context of becoming a cash taxpayer over the next couple of years, is there anything you can do kind of as an offset, whether from a corporate level or from a regulatory standpoint, to offset maybe some of the cash impact there? And then maybe also bigger picture, just what you're assuming sort of on interest rates and recoverability from a cost of capital standpoint over the next couple of years, given how dramatically rates have shifted, I guess, since the last five-year uptick?

Sure. I'll address the cash taxes first. First, we've got excess deferred taxes, as I mentioned. That's beginning to tail off after a couple of years. The IRA for us expects we should kick in in the mid part of the five-year plan, and that's predicated on just the continued growth of the company. Fortunately, there aren't a lot of levers for us to pull. It's really a at 15% or you end up becoming a cash taxpayer as we begin to have burned off some of the NOL shield that we have. And that's contemplated in our plan. So we knew going into this plan that we had either 15% or the fact that NOL shields were going to be becoming lower. So there's not a lot of levers we can do. Our tax team is obviously looking at opportunities for tax planning strategies. Too soon to say if there's anything material that will come from that. But right now, we have conservatively estimated that we'll be a full federal cash taxpayer having the middle part of our five-year plan. With respect to interest rate costs, we've certainly reflected what we believe are current market conditions in the five-year plan. I'll also just remind you that we have the $900 million in hedges at a weighted average treasury cost of about 1.59%. That's a significant portion of our anticipated FY25 need. and a fair amount of our anticipated FY26 needs. So, Dan and team will continue to look for opportunities to lock in some hedges, but given the higher elevated, or where the interest rates are right now, it may not be as prudent or as attractive to do so as it was a couple of years ago when rates were in the sub-two range.

Yeah, I just want to reemphasize that the plan does reflect, as Chris said there, us becoming a tax cash payer out in that timeframe. So that's all backed into the plan that's out there.

Understood. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Julian Smith of Bank of America. Your line is open.

Thank you, Operator. Good morning, team. I really appreciate the time. Just maybe picking up where Gabe left off there, just on the question of taxes, if you don't mind. What about for income statement purposes? How do you think about effective tax rates here? I mean, obviously the comment about going to full cash taxpayer here in the next three years, you know, certainly relevant from financing, but how do you think about the uptick obviously from 23 to 24 and then from there on out in terms of the effective tax rate on the income statement? Obviously I get that some of that over time is going to be subsumed back into the regulated, you know, cost structure, but I'm just curious on how you would set expectations and if there's any Got a question about recovery and timing there as well in the next few years as you see that uptick.

Yeah, we'll certainly see an uptick in the effective income tax rate. Again, that's being influenced right now, certainly the last two or three years with these excessive deferred tax liabilities. Our effective tax rate two years ago was in the 11% range. It ticked up closer to 15%. And we'll end up being in that 22% to 23% range here in the not too distant future. Again, all of these costs we believe are recoverable, including the IRA, corporate minimum tax, and our regulatory and tax teams are working on strategies right now to begin dialogue with those regulators to educate them on where that is in terms of what the law requires and then what the recoverability might look like.

Got it, right. So regulatory strategy on the come here, but not overly concerned about what that does in terms of like maybe a lag headwind here, call it 25 and 26, as you kind of get to that more normalized level, if you will.

Correct. Yeah, correct. Not a material impact. And again, all that's been reflected in the guidance for FY24 through FY28. Excellent. Very much appreciated.

And then just on the O&M side, I just wanted to understand, you know, as you think about that normalized, I think you said three to three and a half percent, like how do you think about what is going on in the context of line locates within that composition through the future? I mean, obviously that's been elevated here. You saw a little bit of reprieve. How do you think about that contributing to that normalized level versus this just being the new norm? Or is there an elevated line locate just embedded in that three to three and a half here?

Now, Julia, it's part of our ongoing strategy with whether they're contractors or internal labor. We always look at what's going on in the market where we have contractors. We look at those on an annual basis to see if they need adjustment, forecasted work for them. Then any strategic opportunities we may have to insource opportunities there to offset some of the costs, particularly taking a longer-term view. So all those options remain on the table as they have in the past, but we continue to look at these on an annual basis. So that's where we get the comfort in that range that we put out there right now.

Okay, fair enough. But it's not like you have some, you know, meaningful further uptake in line locates or something like that that we should be aware of here.

No, again, with the growth that I talked about on the front end and the population and trending that we've seen out there, that's all been baked into the plan out there, all the labor, anticipated labor, The current contracts we have in place, the labor rates that are out there right now, we have baked all that into the plan.

And the 3.5% annual increase is off of FY23 levels, so we're kind of starting at that elevated level already.

Yeah, thanks for flagging that. That's a good point as well. All right, guys, I appreciate it. You guys take care. Thank you.

Thank you.

Again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Levine of Citi. Your line is open.

Good morning, everybody. I want to follow up on the O&M getting a little more granular. In terms of the outlook, it's more on an annual basis, but can you speak to maybe the seasonality attributes of the O&M outlook? Should we look to the most recent fiscal year as indicative of seasonality trends on a go-forward basis, or is there anything else to call out?

Yeah, there's that. On the O&M, there is some element of seasonality. It's difficult to predict because we are managing our O&M over the entire fiscal year. So, for example, like last fiscal year where we had, at the start of the year, we had crews in place kind of doing some in-line inspection work at APT at the end of fiscal 22. It made good business sense to go ahead and continue that work into fiscal 23, although it had been... planned originally to be in the back end of fiscal 23. Rather than to demobilize the crews and remobilize six or nine months later to meet a budget, we decided to go ahead and just continue forward. So that was an operating decision that we made that we thought was in the best interest of the company and our customers. And so we make those decisions on a day in and day out basis. So it's difficult to predict, you know, certainly those larger expenses, you know, when those could occur within a quarter. but certainly we're managing through a full fiscal year result. Same thing on line locates. Kevin talked about seeing this in moderation right now that we're seeing, but six months from now, we can be in a different environment and line locating may pick up for any number of reasons. And we, again, try to manage that on a full fiscal year basis, but quarter by quarter, we're not as focused on how to get this work done in a quarter unless there's a specific time requirement. But again, we are well ahead of our compliance deadlines which gives us the opportunity to manage from a full fiscal year basis.

Yeah, Ryan, the other thing I'd say, Chris is spot on with that, is we do, given the economic growth that we've seen across our service territory, there are times when jurisdictions will want to pull forward projects, whether they're water or sewer related or there's fiber things going on, fiber projects out there that we'll have to move and adjust to as well based upon their timeline. It may not be seasonably rateable, but it may be in a quarter it may show up So, again, we have to get the work done when we need to get the work done and work with our communities to make sure we're in concert with their projects as well.

Great. Thanks for the answer there. And maybe just one other. In terms of within Texas with the Railroad Commission, is there any discussion around consolidating jurisdictions or regulatory contracts as you negotiate outcomes on a go-forward basis?

Yeah, we're aware of some filings that are out there, kind of looking at that opportunity. We're looking at those right now and seeing if that would potentially make sense for us. But we're aware of what others are trying to do at this point in time.

Thank you. Have a good day.

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn the call over to Dan Mazur for some closing remarks.

We appreciate your interest in Atmos Energy and thank you again for joining us this morning. A recording of this call is available for replay on our website through December 31st. Have a great day.

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect.