8/9/2022

speaker
Operator

And welcome to Havana's second quarter 2022 earnings call. Our participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please sign our conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press the star then one on the touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press the star then two. Please note this event has been recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Scott Gallivan. Please go ahead.

speaker
Scott Gallivan

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. It's my pleasure to welcome you to the Avanos 2022 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Presenting today will be Joe Woody, CEO, and Michael Greiner, Senior Vice President and CFO. Joe will review our quarter and current business environment, as well as provide an update on our key objectives for 2022. Then, Michael will discuss additional detail regarding our second quarter and review our 2022 planning assumptions. We'll finish the call with Q&A. A presentation for today's call is available on the Investors section of our website, avanos.com. As a reminder, our comments today contain forward-looking statements related to the company, our expected performance, current economic conditions, and our industry. No assurance can be given as to future financial results. Actual results could differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. For more information about forward-looking statements and the risk factors that could influence future results, please see today's press release and risk factors described in our filings with the SEC. Additionally, we'll be referring to adjusted results and outlook. The press release has information on these adjustments and reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures. Now, I'll turn the call over to Joe.

speaker
Joe Woody

Thanks, Scott. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review our operational and financial results for the second quarter of 2022. Our operational and commercial teams continue to execute well against a range of macroeconomic challenges, and we remain focused on getting patients back to the things that matter as we meet the needs of our customers. Although we fell short of consensus revenue estimates for the second quarter and are also updating our full-year guidance for revenue and adjusted EPS, which Michael will discuss further, we continue to experience consistent demand throughout our product portfolio and remain confident in our ability to execute against our longer-term financial objectives as the supply chain and other macroeconomic dynamics improve. For the quarter, we achieved sales of $203 million representing 9% actual growth or greater than 10.5% growth, excluding the negative impact of foreign exchange. We generated 41 cents of adjusted diluted earnings per share and $23 million of free cash flow. Excluding the negative impact of foreign exchange, our chronic care portfolio grew by just under 1% despite a 10% contraction experienced in our respiratory business due to inventory being sold through our distributor channel that had accumulated during later phases of the pandemic. Our digestive franchise delivered another solid quarter with greater than 5% growth versus prior year, excluding FX. Excluding the impact of orthogenetics and foreign exchange, our pain portfolio was down 1%, with our interventional pain franchise growing 5%, and our acute pain product portfolio lower by a little over 4% versus last year. The pain franchise had a tough prior year comparison and continues to experience slower return to elective procedures due to staffing shortages and patient preferences. Our hyaluronic acid offerings through OrthoGenerex posted strong Q2 sales with a rapid adoption of TriVisc, our three-injection HA regimen, beginning in June. Given our reimbursement position in the market compared to competitors, we will continue to see favorable tailwinds in TriVisc capturing share from both the one and five injection segments with account transitions, new account acquisitions, and meeting patient demands. Additionally, we have service differentiators via our direct patient purchase program and Harmony, an online portal to enhance and streamline the customer experience. We believe these differentiators will help us retain the new business we are capturing moving forward. We remain confident in generating greater than $70 million of actual net sales for fiscal year 2022 from our OrthoGenerex offerings. Separately, we delivered adjusted gross margin of just under 59%, driven by favorable product mix in the quarter, inclusive of OrthoGenerex and our plants continuing to incrementally deliver on our manufacturing efficiency strategy. We are very pleased with our gross margin results for the second quarter and first half, but are cautiously optimistic for the duration of the year, given continued headwinds related to raw material availability, inflation across all manufacturing inputs, and shipping and distribution costs that remain elevated. Additionally, our back borders worsen throughout the second quarter after making progress in the first quarter and are currently in excess of $11 million. Given this continued uncertainty surrounding our supply chain, including access to certain resins, silicone, and Tyvek, and the costs associated with assessing some of these key raw materials for our product offerings, we are not increasing our full year 2022 expectation for gross margin, but are confidently maintaining our annual gross margin expectation between 55% and 57%. Turning to SG&A, as we noted during our year-end earnings call, we identified a range of expenses that would impact our SG&A margin profile in the first half of 2022. Our second quarter SG&A as a percentage of revenue sequentially improved by 240 basis points versus our first quarter to 40.6%. Many of these expenses will not repeat in the second half of the year, as we had previously indicated. We still anticipate maintaining SG&A as a percentage of revenue to be less than 40% for the full year of 2022. With that as a background, let's review some detail on our product portfolio. The positive trends across our digestive health franchise continue with our Neomid portfolio growing over 27% and our legacy internal feeding products growing mid-single digits, despite supply constraints impeding even further growth for both product categories. We anticipate continued strong growth for the duration of 2022, assuming no further supply chain disruptions for this product category. Separately, although our respiratory health business was soft in the second quarter versus our expectations as distributors rebalanced their inventory levels on the tail end of the pandemic, we anticipate growth to revert to historical rates and should benefit from a stronger second half as we approach the 2023 flu season. Turning to our pain portfolio, although we experienced a weaker-than-anticipated overall second quarter, we continued to deliver mid-single-digit growth within interventional pain, and AMBIT also grew by over 50%. As we noted in our first quarter earnings call, we predicted low single-digit growth for our pain portfolio in the second quarter due to a tough prior year comparison and further indicated that we expected a return to double-digit growth for the second half of the year. Throughout the second quarter, we have seen strong demand for capital units and interventional pain, which is a key driver of future Cool Leaf growth and adoption. On the acute pain side, while supply chain challenges have been an ongoing issue this year, we have been able to mitigate some of the impact by continuing to drive the AMBIT reusable pump program, which will remain a key growth engine moving forward. With underlying demand of our products still present, increased momentum in some critical pockets of the portfolio, and a pathway to improving the backlog affecting our pain products, we are cautiously optimistic that we can return the pain portfolio to double-digit growth across the third and fourth quarters. Our next priority for 2022 is to demonstrate our ability to generate consistent, repeatable cash flow. As you may recall, we generated $26 million of normalized free cash flow in 2021, excluding a number of one-time impacts, and as I noted earlier, generated $23 million of free cash flow in our second quarter. We previously communicated that we anticipated generating approximately $90 million of free cash flow for the full year 2022. However, as a result of higher interest expense payments, slightly lower operating earnings, and growing inventory balances due to inflationary pressures on our raw materials and managing our backlog, we now anticipate free cash flow to be closer to $80 million. Our final priority for 2022 is focused on capital deployment via M&A. Our M&A pipeline remains healthy, and as previously stated, we are engaged in active dialogue with a number of potential tuck-in targets, which would leverage our existing footprint, generate synergies, and enhance our top-line growth. To ensure that our capital availability is optimized to pursue each of our capital allocation goals, we closed on a new $500 million credit facility during the second quarter. That said, our ability to close potential acquisition targets is incumbent upon disciplined due diligence and valuation that ensures ROIC is meaningfully above our cost of capital. As I noted earlier, we're very pleased with the expansion of our product offerings through the acquisition of Orthogenerex, and its performance to date has exceeded our initial expectations. In summary, even with various macroeconomic headwinds, including but not limited to inflation, currency, and supply chain, we had a solid first half and remain focused on achieving our primary objectives for 2022 relating to organic growth, orthogenerics execution, gross margin improvement, and material free cash flow generation. Now, I'll turn the call over to Michael.

speaker
Scott

Thanks, Joe. As you noted, even with the uncertainty that persists in the economy globally and the industry-wide macro pressures, we met or exceeded most of our first half objectives. We delivered on our gross margin improvement and free cash flow generation, as well as continued to successfully execute on our orthogenetics strategy. Additionally, our SG&A spend as a percentage of revenue sequentially reduced significantly in the second quarter, and we remain committed to ensuring full-year spend remains below 40% as a percentage of revenue. Even though we have built good momentum across these objectives, we believe it is prudent to update our revenue and adjusted EPS guidance based on the continuing macroeconomic pressures, currency headwinds, and increased interest expense. We now anticipate delivering net sales between $815 and $835 million for fiscal year 2022 and adjusted EPS between $1.45 and $1.65, primarily due to further projected negative foreign exchange impact and higher interest expense totaling approximately 10 cents, as well as slightly lower operating earnings due to lower gross margins in the back half of the year. Now, let's review our second quarter results. Total reported sales were $203 million, up 8.9% compared to last year, with adjusted EPS of 41 cents. On a constant currency basis, organic growth was flat. This excludes the contribution from orthogeneric sales in the second quarter, as well as removing Baxter-generated revenue from the prior year second quarter. Chronic care actual sales were down by 2 million versus last year at 112 million in the quarter, excluding the prior impact of sales coming from our exited Baxter facility. We continue to see strong growth in our digestive health business, with second quarter growth of 3.5%, despite supply constraints impeding even further growth. Within this portfolio, Neomed grew almost 35% domestically and over 27% globally from the continuation of conversions to our NFIT technology. Separately, as Joe noted earlier, our respiratory health business experienced a 10% contraction in the second quarter, primarily due to distributors selling through their inventory as we exit the pandemic, combined with some supply disruptions. Moving to pain management, excluding the contribution of orthogenerics, we delivered 69 million of actual sales, 1 million behind the prior year, driven by a tough comparable and ongoing supply chain challenges. The interventional pain side of the business saw 4% growth, as reported, in the quarter, whereas acute pain declined by 6%. In large part, driven by back orders that grew in the quarter, as well as lagging in elective procedures that utilized OnQ. As Joe noted, we are continuing to see positive contributions from OrthoGenerex, specifically a high level of adoption of TriVisc, our three-shot HA regimen, as we capitalize on the upside opportunity that will be present through the remainder of the year and into 2023. Moving down the income statement, adjusted gross margin improved more than 740 basis points to 58.7% versus last year. As indicated earlier, we are pleased with the progress on gross margins with a combination of better product mix, including orthogenerics, improved plant performance, and lower than forecasted shipping costs. If you recall, last year, to support the business, we incurred significantly higher shipping costs for our NeoMed products to capture the ENFIT conversion opportunity. Although we are very encouraged with our second quarter results with regard to gross margin and across the first half, the global supply chain environment remains disrupted, inflationary pressures are elevated, and the availability of certain raw material components presents a challenge as we work through our existing backorder. As Joe already noted, even with these headwinds, we are confident in our ability to achieve our previously stated objective of full-year gross margins between 55% and 57%. Adjusted operating profit totaled $28 million compared to $15 million in the prior year. Higher sales and improved gross margins were partially offset by additional spend across SG&A as discussed earlier, resulting in adjusted operating margins of 14% for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $33 million compared to $20 million last year, and adjusted net income totaled $19 million compared to $10 million a year ago, translating to $0.41 of adjusted diluted earnings per share. Now, turning to our financial position in liquidity, our balance sheet remains a strength and continues to provide us with strategic flexibility as we currently have over $100 million of cash on hand, with $255 million of debt outstanding post the closing of the OrthoGenerex acquisition and completion of our share repurchase programs. Given our post-acquisition pro forma EBITDA, we are levered at approximately one times. Additionally, we generated 23 million of cash for the second quarter, and although we are now anticipating slightly lower free cash flow generation for the full year of 80 million, which includes approximately 20 million of capital expenditures, we have more than sufficient capacity to meet each of our internal and external capital allocation priorities. As we already shared, Our primary objectives in 2022 center around consistent organic growth, delivering on our OrthoGenerex strategy, making meaningful improvements in our gross margin profile, and demonstrating our ability to deliver material-free cash flow. To summarize, total net sales are expected to be between $815 million and $835 million, with OrthoGenerex delivering sales of greater than $70 million. The low end of this range assumes continued challenges with accessing raw materials, unfavorable impact of currency, continued unevenness in the return of elective procedures, and other factors, including a less impactful flu season. Annual gross margins are expected to be in the range of 55% to 57%, with the lower end of that range capturing continued elevated inflation and distribution costs. And our free cash flow target is approximately $80 million, as we drive sales and margin expansion partially offset by higher inventory balances and interest payments on our outstanding debt. Although the current global macro and industry-specific environment remains difficult, we remain confident in our ability to execute against our strategy and priorities and are taking the necessary steps to drive both growth and operating margin improvement and delivery of significant free cash flow, ensuring that we maintain a solid financial position during this uncertain economic environment. Operator, please open the line for questions.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your touch-tone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press the star then 2. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Rick Wise with Stifel. Please go ahead.

speaker
Rick Wise

Hi, good morning, Thibault. Lots to unpack here. Maybe help us think through just in a little more detail some of the challenges facing the second half, just for starters. You know, the supply chain, Yes, everybody in the industry is dealing with it. You're dealing with it. Where are you, do you feel like, in finding new suppliers? How resolvable is it? Just help us better understand, and therefore, I assume that's the prelude to working through your backlog as well.

speaker
Joe Woody

Thanks. That's correct, Rick. Good morning. It's Joe Woody. I'll start, and then, of course, Michael can add anything that he would like. You know, for us, what we have been mainly seeing are a range of resins and silicone, and that affects the on-cube business, the digestive health business. In the first half, we saw some chip problems that affected cool leaf generators. That looks to be dissipating in H2, and all of that, in turn, also affects the international business. Now, to the extent that that clears up, and as you can imagine, like other companies, we're working a million different pathways to do that, there's also the potential for upside, but at any given time, just in the supply chain that we're in right now, other items emerge, whether it be around packaging or things as simple as ink, and the list goes on from there. I think in H2, kind of our major issue is going to be around Tyvek, and we're equally working with Avamed, with other companies, to try to see how we can get more raw material released for medical device So essentially, that's what you see in the range and in the guidance change. But equally, you know, there's an opportunity. And if that does improve, obviously we do much better. But I don't know, Michael, if you wanted to add to that.

speaker
Scott

Yeah, I would just add to that that, you know, the 815, 835 on revenue, other than FX, which has a meaningful impact, $5 million in the first half of the year, and we're estimating at least $5 million in the back half of the year. If those back orders clear up and we have line of sight, you know, getting us to the higher end of that range of that 835 is very realistic. If those back orders were not able to secure the raw materials, as Joe just mentioned, that's needed, then, you know, more towards the midpoint lower end would be possible.

speaker
Joe Woody

And I would just clarify, you know, that the demand is absolutely there. We could have absolutely done more in a quarter without this type of supply chain challenge. but I think the nature of our portfolio and the size of our company, it hit us sort of a different way, maybe not even as bad as some of the others I've seen, but certainly for our size of company and the portfolio we have, it impacted the quarter.

speaker
Scott

Yeah, I mean, if you look at the first half of the year, you know, North America, grew organically 3.5% through the first half of the year, even with these back orders. So it would have been much more substantial. And then international had more of the back order issue plus the FX issue, which obviously had a total impact on our revenue for the first half of the year.

speaker
Rick Wise

Gotcha. Thanks for that. And turning to Orthogenerex, obviously terrific quarter. You had said on the first quarter you expected to generate sales – excess of 70 million, you're reiterating that. And I just wanted to be, make sure I was clear in my own mind, now that we're halfway through the year, it sounds like you're feeling more confident, but how do we think about it, sort of a two-part question now, how do we think about that outlook given the reimbursement change looming for HA and just how you're thinking about that and what you've dialed into that projection? And in a sense, What's next? It seems like you're doing better than others. Maybe help us understand why that could, should, and will continue to be the case. I'd appreciate it. Thank you.

speaker
Joe Woody

Yes, Joe, I'll go ahead and do that. We are definitely more confident in the full-year outlook. We knew with the new allowables there would be a migration to TriVis. That happened a lot more quickly than we anticipated, faster from the five shots. In fact, some of our five-shot customers or a good portion of them want to get into the three-shot market. We're seeing competitive moves over to ours. Short-term, there is a reimbursement favorability that customers can experience because of the way we strategically went around our pricing, focusing on the wholesale. So we have to maintain a healthy ASP. We intend to add direct reps and 1099 reps. So we think that we sort of have this window, if you will, of six to nine months, I think, of a pretty positive tailwind in this business where we're going to see some upside and the strategy's working. We're definitely beating the internal model, and that'll be helpful. And I think that that just sort of bodes well for also what we said about year two and then beyond with that business. So all in all, it's turned out to be an excellent acquisition for us and one that's strategic, obviously, alongside other things that we're doing in other orthopedic areas of our business like Cool Leaf and OnCue.

speaker
Rick Wise

Gotcha. Thanks again.

speaker
Joe Woody

Yep.

speaker
Operator

The next question comes from Matthew Mission with KeyBank. Please go ahead.

speaker
Matthew Mission

You there, Matt? I think we may have lost Matt there. He may come back into the line. Maybe we take another question.

speaker
Matt

Matthew, you are on the floor.

speaker
Joe Woody

Oh, there he is. Hey, Matt. Joe Woody here.

speaker
Matt

Sorry about that. Michael's here as well, obviously. Hey, just to follow up on the TriVisc question, you know, what specifically about TriVisc is allows you to have a better reimbursement position than some of the peers in the space?

speaker
Joe Woody

Primarily, it's the way that we priced our product at the wholesale level. Not a lot of specialty pharmacies kind of rebating in our business, and that strategically was the way that we focused the business. So we ended up with a more favorable reimbursement than all the other three injection products that Going forward, I think the differentiator is the other portfolio that we have, the conversations we can have in alternate sites or different sites like ambulatory surgical centers or places where we're selling Coolief. Again, we do intend to expand our channel a bit as well. Ultimately, the differentiators are going to come around the servicing, really. We've got a portal that we talked about in the script and the way that we service customers and make it easier to to do business. And then we have some technology that we're working on in terms of the syringe that we think will be a differentiator as ultimately over time, you have to differentiate that way as much of the reimbursement, you know, later on you move out a year from now will be very similar.

speaker
Matt

Okay. So you're expecting the chain, your favorable reimbursement position to, to sort of come together with, with the rest of rest of the industry as you kind of get through the second half of this year.

speaker
Joe Woody

So next year, through the second half of next year, I think is where we feel like we're going to be favorable in the three injection area.

speaker
Matt

Do you feel like you'll be favorable through the middle of next year? Correct. It could extend a little bit or go into eventually more levels.

speaker
Joe Woody

a field where you have your basic customers and we're differentiating through basically our other portfolio, the way we service, and then we're doing some things from an innovation standpoint with our syringe, because I think at that point you have to have a differentiator at that kind of a reimbursement level.

speaker
Scott

And so what's key, as Joe mentioned in the prepared remarks, is we gain all these additional customers, we service them well, and once pricing is less of a dynamic in this market, we maintain the market share that we will have developed over the last few weeks and into the next few quarters.

speaker
Matt

Okay. I think I understand that now.

speaker
Operator

Good.

speaker
Matt

And the question around Neomed and Digestive, it seems like Neomed is growing. And I remember this being a larger base of sales from you guys. Outside of Neomed, is digestive contracting or is that still growing as well?

speaker
Joe Woody

No, we see it as a mid-single-digit grower on a global level. It's one of those areas affected by, I believe, Tyvek and silicone in H2. There's absolutely an upside where if we can get the right amount of raw materials, we can even do better in the digestive health area, which is where we primarily focus on our Mickey products. But you also see CoreTrack, although it's slowed a bit in North America with the staffing shortages and the ICU census, we still think that that's a good grower for us inside of the Digestive Health franchise. So you peel it all back. It's a very solid business, mid-single-digit grower with a good runway globally for the future and actually good margins for us and a big contributor to our cash EBITDA.

speaker
Matt

And then just on the orthogen, the number in the quarter, you back into it, it's about $22 million. Is that the correct number, contribution from that acquisition in the quarter?

speaker
Scott

That's directionally correct, yes.

speaker
Matt

Okay. Thank you very much.

speaker
Joe Woody

Thank you, Matt.

speaker
Operator

Next question comes from Chris Cooley with Stephens. Please go ahead.

speaker
Chris Cooley

Good morning, and thanks for taking the questions. Just maybe a clarifying question for me to start, and then maybe a little bit bigger picture follow-up. Michael, just in regards to the guidance, you mentioned the lower end of the top line did assume continued FX headwinds. Apologize if I missed this in your prepared remarks, but did you call out what you're assuming there in terms of the incremental headwind there from a basis point perspective, or maybe alternatively, could you just give us you know, where your markers were for the major currencies coming into the quarter. And then, just kind of as another offshoot, kind of from a, just a clarifying point, you know, when we look at pricing for HA products, the way it gets published out there, I just want to make sure I'm understanding this correctly. When we look at your pricing versus, say, some of your competitors, you're assuming that that discount There's no additional rebates being added. So that's just going to be that price differential you think then will continue until the midpoint of the next calendar year because there's quite a bit of disparity across three to four players here just in terms of published pricing on the HA offerings at this time. Then I've got one quick kind of bigger picture follow-up.

speaker
Joe Woody

Do you want to do the currency or do you want me to start with the... Start with the... So I think you've got the AHA piece right. We're not really in... We haven't really structured a lot of rebate type of business or discounted to, you know, payers and so forth, especially pharmacies, not a big area for us to focus. So we've benefited from that with a wholesale price that's pretty robust. And, yes, it should continue into about the middle of... of next year, and we think that that's going to allow for us to gain share from competitors fairly significantly during that period. I think we'll keep it with the things that we've got planned on the innovation side and then the servicing model that we want to go after. Also, one thing I didn't mention in the prior question was they're also building a cash business as well that looks like it's got opportunity for us. Cash pay. Cash pay.

speaker
Scott

And then on your other question, Chris, so we had about a $5 million headwind across the first half related to FX versus our planning model. We anticipate that we'll probably see five to seven in the second half as well. The reason for the increase is just that we're going to do, you know, 25, 30 million more in revenue in the second half. So that obviously has a bigger FX impact. In addition, good portions of our back orders were international-related. So, you know, we have a bigger ramp in the back half of the year related to international orders, hence the additional FX impact in the back half of the year.

speaker
Chris Cooley

Appreciate the additional color. And then just a bigger picture follow-up there. You alluded to stronger capital demand on the pain management side as we think about the Cooley franchise. Any way you can – quantify that for us a little bit here in terms of, you know, maybe site of service where you're seeing the incremental demand relative to prior periods, just trying to get a little bit better granularity there around just how much incremental demand you're seeing versus kind of relative levels there. Thanks so much.

speaker
Joe Woody

Sir Chris, yeah, one of the things actually there's a benefit, I think, is that as the chip shortage of took hold in the first half, there was an opportunity for the channel to connect with existing customers and get penetration or bring in active accounts back. I think the other thing that also drives that is the continued studies that are coming out, definitely as they publish, but also now, as everybody knows, I think we're in the OA space, so that's a strong grower for us for those sites that are treating in OA. And the quantification is really that we think, you know, there's a tough comparator between as we all came out of the first aspect of COVID and everyone bounced back in this quarter last year or in Q2 last year with procedures. But as we get into the second half, there's definitely some better comparators for us. We certainly see that quantifying in terms of double-digit growth in the teams again for Q3 and Q4, and we just have a big demand for – the capital, and so we have a backlog for these units. And I think the team's doing a nice job, you know, selling the capital. So that's where it's all coming from.

speaker
Matthew Mission

Thanks for the additional color. Yep.

speaker
Matt

Again, if you have a question, please press Start Then 1.

speaker
Operator

Next question comes from Drew Ranieri with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

speaker
spk09

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just keep it on the HA topic for my first one, but Joe, I'd be kind of curious to hear more about some of the innovation that you're putting behind the product. I know that there was eventually like a single injection product coming, but can you go into a little bit more detail about what you precisely mean by innovation and the service model. And also, the cash pay kind of struck me. Just kind of curious how that would work in the DHA market. And then I had a follow-up.

speaker
Joe Woody

We talked a little bit in the script about the Harmony portal, just making it easier for customers to do business with us to order to get reimbursement assistance. That's one thing. I mean, the next thing that we're doing on the differential side in innovation after sort of the reimbursement changes is technology that will allow for the injection to be guided more precisely into the areas of the need to get the best effect. And so it's sort of known that, you know, if you're not in the right space when you make this injection, you get less of an impact, which is why sometimes I think patients experience maybe no pain relief or just a couple weeks while others experience, you know, two months or more of pain relief. So I think that will be a differentiator. And then the other thing I think is just where we can go with some of the access and sites. And then I think that a lot of the folks that are believers in AHA are going to want to have the ability to have patients come in that want relief and want to pay cash, you know, for that relief. And so there's opportunities there really in most all of the sites where we are for that. And we'll be talking a little bit more about that as it sort of unfolds toward the end of the year. But that's where we are on that.

speaker
spk09

Okay. And just maybe on the injection for accuracy, is this going to be just around using kind of ultrasound and improving like the needle, the injector, or anything else there?

speaker
Joe Woody

It's more related to a guidance of the needle.

speaker
spk09

Okay. And then maybe for Michael, a couple questions here. But when we kind of look at your organic guidance for EPS, I mean, I get that some of this is FX and some of this is interest. But when you're looking at the change from the prior guidance, the two-point organic guidance reduction, Can you maybe just talk about how that flows through into EPS and maybe what the change is there? And also on gross margins, I mean, it looks like it's going to be flat year over year and then the back half. But could you maybe just give us a bridge between second half and first half of how you're thinking about the macro factors and maybe where could there be like a specific relief area that you can control versus just kind of the macro uncertainty? Thank you.

speaker
Scott

Yeah, fair questions. So on the EPS side, the biggest reason for the call down was the higher interest expense, the FX impacts, and then a little bit on the lower operating earnings. And those lower operating earnings are primarily through the lower gross margin in the second half. We will offset the lower revenue organically that you just referenced. We will offset that through OPEX challenging and OPEX savings. So Revenue down on the organic side offset by more favorable OPEX. The other pieces then that relate to the ultimate EPS guidance change were higher interest expense, FX, and a little bit of the lower gross margin. Does that help with that part of the question, Drew?

speaker
spk09

Yes, it does. Thank you.

speaker
Scott

And then when you think about the March from first half to second half gross margin, The biggest piece of that is inflationary factors. So if you noticed And our balance sheet, our inventory is up about $19 million. That's more than we anticipated. That obviously has an impact on free cash flow as well. But we, as we have opportunities to buy raw materials, we're doing that in pockets that we know don't have dating concerns. So we've been a little bit looser on that. But also that inventory that is now capitalized, that's going to, as we sell and work through the back order in the back half of the year, we are going to be releasing in the cost of goods sold higher-priced inventory, and therefore that's going to have a big impact on our gross margin in the back half of the year. Now, as we work through that and we start to have a little bit more normalized raw material purchasing as we enter into 2023, that drag that's now capitalized on our balance sheet obviously reverses meaningfully.

speaker
Matthew Mission

Thanks for taking the questions. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Joe Witte for any closing remarks.

speaker
Joe Woody

Thanks. I just want to thank everybody for their continued interest in Avanos. And while we're very pleased with our overall execution this quarter, given the uncertainty in this environment, we are committed to creating meaningful shareholder value. and believe our 2022 results are building the foundation to deliver on that commitment. I'm confident that the priorities that we've detailed, combined with our market lean portfolio and attractive markets, position us for consistent sales growth, margin expansion, and significant free cash flow generation as we enter the back half of 2022. And we'll probably see a lot of you in the fall investor meetings. So thank you very much. Bye-bye.

speaker
Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. you may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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