Avient Corporation

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to AVN Corporation's webcast to discuss the company's third quarter 2022 results. My name is Catherine. I'll be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will have a question and answer session following the company's prepared remarks. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Joe DeSalvo, Vice President, Treasurer, and Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Thank you, Catherine, and good morning to everyone joining us on the call today. Before beginning, we'd like to remind you that statements made during this webcast may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements will give current expectations or forecasts of future events and are not guarantees of future performance. They're based on management's expectation and involve a number of business risks and uncertainties, any of which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the investor presentation for this webcast for a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ. During the discussion today, the company will use both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the presentation posted on the Aviant website where the company describes the non-GAAP measures and provides a reconciliation for historical non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Joining me today is our Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, Bob Patterson. and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jamie Begg. Now I will turn the call over to Bob.

Thanks, Joe, and good morning, everyone. On September 27th, we issued a press release to provide revised EPS projections for the quarter and the year. Our projections were updated to include the acquisition of DSM protective materials, present the distribution business as discontinued operations, and adjust our outlook to reflect current demand conditions and weaker foreign exchange. At the time, we said the war in Ukraine and related energy supply concerns had significantly eroded consumer sentiment and demand in Europe. And we had not seen a recovery in Asia from the COVID-19 lockdowns in the first half of the year. And also that the economic environment was further challenged by rapidly rising interest rates in the U.S., which have negatively impacted demand trends in the Americas. In addition, we believe current global demand is likely further weakened by customer inventory destocking. And all of this remains true today, with further weakness now expected as a result of recently announced COVID lockdowns in China. And you may have read about that in connection with major manufacturers like Foxconn and the implications for brand owners like Apple. but they are even further reaching than that. And we will certainly provide more color on each of these areas as our call progresses today. From a headline perspective, we are reducing our full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $2.60. There's an additional $0.05 change to the pro forma estimate related to modeling, not demand, which Jamie will cover in her remarks. Economists may debate the technical definition of a recession, but that is academic. we are experiencing lower demand for the reasons that I just mentioned, and that's happening now. And so to help ground us on the state of preparedness, I really want to just spend a few minutes reminding everyone of the portfolio changes that we have made in the last few years and acknowledge the tremendous amount of change that has taken place since we last spoke. I'm extremely proud of what we have accomplished these last few months against this backdrop of challenging dynamic and macroeconomic circumstances. We achieved two key milestones, which are part of a much bigger transformational story. I'm very pleased that we have been able to acquire DSM Protective Materials, now named Avian Protective Materials or APM, and add the world-renowned Dyneema brand to our portfolio. In doing so, we have substantially increased our presence in the composite and fiber space, adding important technologies to our sustainable solutions portfolio. When we announced the deal in April, you'll recall that we also announced we were going to explore a sale of our distribution segment. And we did this for three reasons. First, I believe there was a perception potentially held by investors and potential buyers that we wouldn't sell distribution. Announcing the potential sale was really an effective way to gauge the broader interest in the business. It publicly put all potential buyers on notice that we were going to run a sale process. which quickly became competitive. The second reason was I wanted to convey the sale as a potential next step on our multi-year journey to becoming a pure play specialty formulator. You know, our distribution business had been part of our company since it was created back in 2000. Though it was not a formulation business, it did play an important role in our growth story and certainly helped us fund our specialty investments. As you saw from our announcement yesterday, The divestiture of distribution is now complete. I'm really pleased that distribution has found a good home with HIG Capital as they will continue to represent Avian in the marketplace as a distributor for certain materials in our portfolio. And the third and final reason for announcing the sale and ultimately proceeding with it was so that we could remain modestly levered, which would protect us in a downturn while also providing capacity for future acquisitions when the time is right. And we did what we said we would do. We are using the proceeds from the distribution sale to pay down debt. We remain modestly levered, have no near-term maturities of debt, and substantial liquidity. In short, we are very well positioned to navigate these challenging near-term market conditions. Demand is down, and all signs point to a recession. This is reflected in current equity market sentiment, as share prices are down, including avian. And perhaps some element of our particular situation is effectuated by all these changes in the last few months. Recall that just a few years ago, there was another important portfolio shift we were executing, and this kind of reminds me of this similar dynamic. In 2019, we divested a legacy business segment of the original Avian called Performance Products and Solutions, primarily constituting our GM brand and PVC-based materials. A few months later, we announced our agreement to acquire Clearance Color Business. You know, at the time, both transactions were very well received. That is, until the pandemic hit in early 2020. Although it was a different impetus, A very similar environment ensued with market disruption, volatility, and uncertainty. Despite prevailing market fears during the early days of the pandemic, we confirmed that we would stay the course with respect to Clarion and our strategy. We knew that the Clarion color acquisition was the right one and that it would create value for the near-term and long-term. And it certainly has. We bought a business that generated around $130 million of EBITDA. And today, the acquisition plus synergies are adding just over $200 million two years later. EBITDA margins have expanded from around 12% to over 16%. And in terms of our purchase price, it has dropped as a multiple from 10.8 to just over six times. What I think is most compelling about the deal, however, really is the combined strength of the Legacy Clariant and Legacy Poly One businesses and that we've been able to create an enterprise that was better prepared to take care of customers during the COVID pandemic and take share. We are the number one provider of specialty color and additive solutions today. And it's an important reminder to stay the course in good times and bad, just as we are right now. Clariant Color and APM are the two largest acquisitions we have done, but we've also established a track record of bolt-on acquisition success, from thermoplastic elastomers to specialty colorants and performance additives to building a now thriving composites business from scratch. Acquisitions have played an important role in transforming our portfolio, and so have divestitures in which we exited businesses along the way that were more commodity and volume-driven. The following slide provides a snapshot of Bolton acquisition performance for established deals that we've had for over seven years. And the value creation story is similar to that of Clarion, but it's also rooted in our invest to grow approach to integration. We invest heavily in commercial excellence. This is often an under-invested area of smaller companies that we identify. Yet it offers tremendous opportunity for Avian and our customers. We increase sales, marketing, and R&D resources, then train employees and provide them the tools they need to serve customers with the highest levels of innovation, service, and delivery. The growth and value creation of those businesses are significant. And when combined with the historic change in culture, philosophy, and the way we go to market, we really are now a pure play specialty formulator of sustainable solutions. It's what we've been aiming for all these years, but not because it's a finish line. In fact, I really view this as a launching off point for us as a preeminent global leader in sustainable solutions. Not many people could have imagined back in 2005 we'd be where we are today. And that specialty transformation of our company ran in natural parallel with our goal to improve our end market mix. If you went back to 2006, presented on the chart on the left, you can see that the preponderance of our revenue was in housing, auto, and industrial. Fast forward to 2022, and the end markets have changed dramatically. In the pro forma view on the right, over half our revenues now come from consumer, packaging, and healthcare. And with Dyneema, we add protecting men and women in the military and law enforcement with defense applications. Here's another telling illustration of what moving from volume to value looks like as segment EBITDA margins have expanded substantially. This is aggregated on slide 13, where you can see the total lift in EBITDA and margins over this time period. And on the next slide, you can see that as earnings have expanded, so has the cash we have returned to shareholders. A few weeks ago, we announced our 12th consecutive year of annualized dividend increases. an impressive record we're extremely proud of. With the recent and significant acquisitions of Clarion and APM and our focus on delevering, we haven't bought back a lot of shares in the last couple of years, but over a longer time horizon, we certainly have. All told, we have returned over $1.5 billion in cash and dividends and buybacks. It's quite a story of growth and transformation through periods of immense macroeconomic and geopolitical and personal stress beginning with the Great Recession in 2008 and 2009, including the COVID pandemic, which continues to challenge the world and now the events of today. And I think this is an incredibly important context to remember as we consider the current market conditions. I believe we've never been in a better position to handle challenges like the ones before us. And the reality is that business is down and we're not immune to it. I think this is exacerbated in the near term by these COVID lockdowns in China and customer inventory to stocking, which is taking place to a degree I have not seen before. I think much of this may be a correction in post-COVID buying behavior as well as the real effects of inflation and the impact that is having on consumer spending and sentiment. Jamie is going to provide more details on our financial performance as well as how we are navigating these current trends. Jamie?

Thank you, Bob. The transformation has indeed been on a full steam path for the two years I've been with the company. And I truly couldn't be more proud of the latest milestones we've completed since our last earnings call, and even more so when you consider the present economic conditions. We updated our projections in our September 27 press release for the reasons Bob mentioned and to exclude intangible amortization. For the third quarter, our EPS from continuing operations of $0.59 was in line with our guidance of 58 cents, a decline of 3% as reported, but an increase of 5% excluding negative foreign exchange on a year-over-year basis. The third quarter results shown on this slide include one month of Dyneema in the current year. Financing costs are higher than the ultimate run rate we will achieve following the pay down of debt with proceeds from the distribution sale. That is why the increase in EBITDA does not translate to a similar increase in EPS in the third quarter. What's not immediately evident from this slide are the underlying changes in demand, price, mix, and cost, which we will cover on the next slide. As you walk through the remaining financial slides, we have presented the information on a pro forma basis, which means APM is included for the entire period for both quarters presented. As Bob mentioned before, we have updated our pro forma modeling with more detailed information related to APM results in periods prior to our ownership and some impacts associated with preliminary purchase price accounting. This resulted in a five-cent change to our full-year estimate. As it relates to demand, during the first half of the year, we reported declining demand related to a loss of sales in Russia, COVID lockdowns in China, and lower sales into the outdoor high-performance market. This is more than offset by price and mix, as well as the performance of our other end markets. In the third quarter, demand further declined, resulting in an EBITDA impact of $39 million. With the exception of our business in Latin America, all regions are experiencing a downturn. Latin American sales are up 18% driven by growth in packaging applications and extending our reach within the region. Europe, as you would expect, has been most heavily impacted as consumer sentiment has eroded with the ongoing war in Ukraine and the associated energy supply concerns causing virtually all end markets to be down. We have not seen a recovery in Asia from the lockdowns in the first and second quarters, and with recently announced lockdowns in Q4, we won't this year. Although the region is experiencing its own economic challenges, this is also likely tied to lower demand in the US and Canada, which is really the new news we highlighted in our September 27th release. US and Canada represent about 40% of sales, and their demand is down 9% year over year, with a large portion of that coming from consumer applications, including outdoor high performance. We believe inflation and higher interest rates are a significant factor in the shifting sentiment in the U.S. and Canada. This is further impacted by customer inventory destocking, which Bob mentioned previously. It's difficult to bifurcate the two, but we are certainly hearing that from many customers across nearly every industry. The impact of these demand trends on earnings was lessened by the net benefit of our pricing actions. What I also point out on this slide is that in prior quarters, wage inflation has been a significant factor in cost increases, but now we are seeing much higher energy costs, most notably in Europe and particularly in our engineered materials segment. From a segment perspective, sales are down in both businesses due to lower demand, with Color's top line being more negatively impacted as virtually all of our exposure to Russia imports within this segment. And Color has a larger international footprint than the engineered materials business, with 65% of the business originating outside of the U.S., which more negatively impacted their results due to the strengthening U.S. dollar. Despite lower demand, Keller was able to increase EBITDA 7% year-over-year, excluding foreign exchange, due to commercial excellence on pricing, as well as lower costs associated with clarion synergies and reduced incentives. From an SEM perspective, pricing and mix have not been able to offset lower demand in consumer applications and higher energy costs in Europe. We added the next slide to highlight the impact of demand on EBITDA by end market. Industries such as defense, energy, and telecommunications are holding up well and are effectively flat. As we move down the table, you'll see a relatively small impact from demand on packaging, which is our largest market, as well as healthcare and transportation. At this time, we believe these three markets are being impacted more by destocking than consumer demand. We believe end markets such as building and construction have been negatively impacted from rising interest rates and overall inflation, which is influencing end customer demand. The end market that has been most impacted, which is listed towards the bottom of this table, has been consumer. About one-third of this is directly tied to outdoor high performance, which is already down this year. The remaining decline is likely a combination of end user demand and destocking tied to retail inventory reductions. On the next slide, you can see how current demand is impacting our key growth drivers, as well as the impact of pricing power by each. While sales in sustainable solutions is up year over year due to pricing initiatives, demand is down as customers draw down inventory. A significant portion of our sustainable solutions portfolio is within the consumer and packaging space, where we see the highest levels of destocking by brand owners and retail suppliers. We are still confident in the long-term growth profile of this platform, despite the short-term destocking we are experiencing in the value chain. Healthcare continues to be resilient in these challenging economic conditions, as sales increased in higher margin applications, such as drug delivery devices, medical equipment, and catheters. We are starting to see a slowdown in COVID-related applications, such as those used in administrating the vaccine, and medical device applications are being impacted by chip shortages. With respect to composites, we have seen demand growth in energy and telecom driven at least partially by 5G infrastructure build-out. This, coupled with pricing initiatives, has more than offset the decline in consumer applications. As we mentioned this morning, we expect full-year 2022 adjusted EPS from continuing operations to be $2.60 and pro forma adjusted EPS to be $2.95. As a reminder, the continuing operations figures include APM for the period of ownership, so since September 1st, and the pro forma figures include APM's full year results, as well as the full year impact of using distribution sale net proceeds to pay down debt. And I'd like to end on that point. We've acquired an amazing business with Dyneema, the world's strongest fiber at a value that will be accreted to our shareholders. We completed the transformation of our company to be 100% specialty formulator with a divestiture of distribution. We've accomplished those significant portfolio moves in a short time window and under incredibly difficult market conditions. We did both of these transactions with a keen focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet and having the ability to keep investing even with the economic uncertainty ahead of us. We are using all of the after-tax proceeds from the sale of distribution of $750 million to retire our 2023 notes and a portion of our outstanding term loans. This will allow us to be modestly levered at 3.1 times net debt to EBITDA by year end. We have ample liquidity today, which will only continue to grow due to the asset light and high free cash flow nature of our businesses. As Bob has mentioned before, we are in a great position to not only weather the current economic environment, but to also stay focused on our long-term strategy of growing and investing in our business with a focus on our key growth drivers. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Bob.

Well, thanks, Jamie. And today, I've made some comparisons today to the COVID pandemic to illustrate how we have run the company during challenging times. But clearly, today's environment is not exactly the same as it was in 2020. There is war, geopolitical tension, energy availability concerns in Europe, customer destocking and We're all living with what may become one of the longest fallouts from the pandemic, stifling inflation. Demand is down, but we'll get through it. We have a strong balance sheet, as Jamie said. We'll continue to control discretionary spending and accelerate remaining synergy capture from the clarion acquisition. But I also see this as an opportunity for us to further differentiate with our customers. We're going to accentuate the unique hallmarks of why they choose Avian as their partner. That's exceptional customer service and delivery, continuous investments in innovation, and utilizing our global team and manufacturing footprint to flex wherever and whenever they need us to in this volatile environment. Doing these things and doing them well not only keeps us more resilient in the short term, but it's building customer loyalty and setting us up for long-term success when demand recovers, and it will. We are all so laser focused on the economic conditions and performance. It's a good time to step back and remember another important learning from the pandemic, and that is practicing empathy. There is a war still going on in the Ukraine. Many families in Europe are worried if they're going to have heat. And there's a ton to navigate in the personal lives of our associates and our customers. So as we work hard to win in this downturn, we will do so with empathy and compassion. always recognizing the bigger factors at stake. With that, we'll open it up for questions. Thank you.

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you'll need to press star 11 on your telephone. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Frank Mitch with Ferrium Research. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, and Bob, good luck on Saturday. Rutgers can be very tough, so hopefully that's not your first loss of the year. Yeah. Thanks, Frank. All right. I won't play this tape to Shiano, but hey, so you talk about this D-Stock being greater than you've seen in the past, and I'm wondering if you could offer us some color on the pace of the D-stock that you've seen, you know, relative to 3Q and then into 4Q so far, and if there are any material differences by the segments.

Yeah, I mean, the pace really did pick up, and I think the first time we really started to see that was in August orders picked up in September. You know, October kind of came in in line with forecast as we adjusted it in September, but then really dropped off again in November. So maybe to give you some perspective, right now the fourth quarter forecast has got sales being down about 14%. October was about nine, but November is really up around 16% or so. So it does seem to be taking place faster as we get closer to the end of the year.

Gotcha. Understood. And then Jamie, I think you indicated that at the end of the year, net debt to EBITDA will be about 3.1 times. And I'm wondering what your target is for that metric and what's the game plan to get there and timeframe to get there?

Yeah, our overall philosophy is to be under three times. And that's obviously what we've communicated, I think, in other conversations with Clarion, where we started at three and a half times now that we're starting at 3.1. And because of the highs, cash flow nature of our businesses, you know, we expect to, you know, keep on that path to get down closer to under three and that sweep stop between two and three times.

And then when you get, just to follow up, and when you get there, would there be a reconsideration of buybacks at that point?

Yeah, I think along the way there certainly will be. I think we can be balanced in that regard. Obviously, we need to see what next year looks like from an EBITDA and a performance standpoint. I mean, clearly we're at the front edge of declining demand, so we just need to put that into perspective of what next year looks like. But as I made my remarks today, we have bought back a lot of shares in the past. We just haven't done it in the last couple of years because of these acquisitions. Obviously, with the share price where it is, it's attractive, and we'll give that some consideration as we go forward, just keeping leverage in mind.

Thank you so much.

Thank you. One moment. Our next question comes from Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. I'm still chuckling about this. still chuckling at the Rutgers comment. Wanted to ask you, Bob, if you can walk through the consumer business and kind of help us understand maybe a little bit more detail what's going on there. I guess our view in general is that consumer equals defensive, but it seems like within your business there are some pieces that are more discretionary and seeing some pressure, and there are also some areas that are more staple-like and should be more steady. So, can you help break that business down for us and maybe talk about what you're seeing right now?

Yeah, and, you know, we can spend more time on this after you have a chance to kind of look at the slides further, but on slide 19, you can see what the EBITDA impact is on consumer at about $15 million. Obviously, that's the most significant, and I think around nine or so of that's really probably in the discretionary sector versus the balanced, probably consumer staples. Just sort of broadly categorized between the two, and we've included them all together there. Outdoor high performance is one. I mean, Kaylee, when we started the beginning of this year, we knew that was going to be down, but it's down even more probably than initially thought. And in general, Mike, I really think that there is a pretty significant curtailment of consumer spending and consumer sentiment for things in, you know, in the outdoor industry and or even in the consumer staples area in terms of home appliances and small items for that fact on the staples side. So hopefully that helps as a starting point, but give that some more thought and give a chance we can follow up on that slide.

Yeah, that sounds good. And then I was also hoping that you could talk a little bit about, you mentioned some additional synergies yet to come from Clarion. I know that with the Dyneema business, you guys have mentioned that they have some operational best practices that might be leveraged across some of your other composites facilities. Maybe just talk a little bit about how much additional costs take out there could be between those two things. and maybe some pullback on discretionary spending that you referenced in your remarks.

Yeah. I mean, there was a connection there I think you were making between APM and color, and there really isn't one in terms of learning between the two, or if I misheard you, I apologize. But then with respect to, you know, the clarion synergies, I think there are more things that we can do from an operational perspective that we're giving consideration to. You know, recall that I think candidly putting these two businesses together during the pandemic really was a source of strength, and we were able to take share. Obviously, as we look at the current demand trends, there's an opportunity to, I think, do some more work from an operations perspective that we just candidly weren't able to do in the last couple of years. So it's not new plans. It's just finally, I think, getting to those plans is the best way I would describe that. And then on the discretionary spending side, we're in the process right now of trying to roll up a view of next year. You can imagine the challenges with doing that, but everyone's going to be very mindful of controlling headcount additions and just in general spending and travel and so on to be very prudent next year. So I have more to say on that, I'm sure, when we get to the fourth quarter results.

Hey, Mike, and so I know this is, you've probably heard this before, but we're on track to deliver $75 million of clearance synergies within 2022. And we've previously announced getting to $85 million in synergies. So we're definitely on path for that. And to Bob's point, whether or not we can accelerate those into a shorter timeframe, I think, is where we're headed. And we'll obviously give an update when we get four-year guidance for 2023.

All right, and then, sorry, just to clarify my question on Dyneema, my understanding is that there were some best practices that they had on their operations and that you might be able to leverage those into your composites business. Maybe just take some, again, taking some best manufacturing practices and finding ways to improve yields, improve productivity within composites.

Oh, yeah, sorry if I... lump that in with color. That was my mistake. But yeah, I mean, absolutely. I think the Dyneema business does some things incredibly well. Obviously, it has world-class technology and innovation. And I'm guessing we're going to be able to learn a lot from that as well as manufacturing. So I think if the teams get more opportunities to spend together, that will absolutely come to fruition.

All right. Thanks very much. One moment.

We have a question from Michael Sisson from Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Hey, good morning.

I guess, Bob, you know, I appreciate the slide regarding, you know, the new portfolio being less cyclical. But you look at the first half, I think your volumes are down 6%. Second half, looks like the volumes are going to be down, I don't know, double digits. If you have a specific number, you know, let us know. It doesn't really feel less cyclical, and I know your goal is to grow 6.5%. So maybe give us a little bit of color of why volumes seem more cyclical than they should be, and just maybe any thoughts on if that's really the case.

Well, I think, first of all, it's a relative comment. And when you look at the portfolio back in 2008 and 2009 and that recession,

I think that's directionally correct. I think we're actually feeling that right now and seeing that in the fourth quarter.

I really think, though, that customer inventory destocking is playing a pretty significant factor in the fourth quarter. I wish I could bifurcate the two and have better visibility to that, and that's one of the reasons why I think you're seeing that impact Q4 so significantly and seeing the corresponding EPS decline as a result. But anyway, when I look at 12, certainly much better than what it looked like going through 08 and 09.

Got it. And then when you think about 2023, and I understand a little bit early, obviously the consensus is we're going to go into recession. Could you give us sort of what you think the portfolio would generate in sort of a soft recession or a hard recession? I mean, what type of volume declines do you think you would see in that scenario?

Yeah. Well, when we did the, I mean, just to reference that 08, 09 scenario, looking back on that, it being 35 or 36%, when we ran a similar model with our existing portfolio today, in that type of, you know, a demand downturn, you know, we did actually project it would be around a 12%. So, I still think that's a good long-term view. Um, to think about what that's going to be like, in this present recession, it may be down a little bit more in the 4th quarter again, because of the stocking. I still think that is a good way to think about what that looks like. So. Look, we haven't given any guidance yet for 23, but clearly we're at the beginning of of this downturn. So some of that's going to go into 23 for sure.

Got it. Just a quick follow-up. So 12% down is for the full year 22. And then what would the second half be?

No, I wasn't saying 12% down. I think I was just referencing kind of a present demand dynamic that we're seeing right now between Q3 and Q4. So I don't have the math on the top of my head there on how that plays out for the full year.

Okay. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to get a little bit more color on the destocking that you're seeing. I think you indicated Obviously, that's continuing here in the fourth quarter, and November seemed to get a little bit worse. First, could you give us a little bit more of a sense of maybe what pockets or sectors maybe saw more of a demand compression in November versus what we were kind of in October? And then as you think about the fourth quarter, how do you kind of think about, you know, how much of that maybe is destocking versus just seasonality and other kind of broader trends in your guidance?

Yeah, I mean, again, looking at that slide 19 that was in our deck, I think when you look at, I mean, obviously, defense, energy, telecom, relatively flat year over year, I think we're seeing destocking in, you know, the middle three categories. I mean, transportation is already down, so I think what we're seeing there is some destocking, and then in the final three, probably a combination of stocking and consumer and demand. Really hard to bifurcate the two. I wish I had better visibility into that, but it's very challenging. What I can say is that, you know, look, buying behavior has changed dramatically in the last month or two, where if you went back a year ago, you know, people were placing orders significantly farther ahead than what they needed. They were placing orders for more than they needed. And I'm sure that has resulted in a buildup of inventory, and now that demand is pulling back, everyone's correcting it. So, again, I wish I had a better number on carving out the two, but certainly I think that's played a big role in Q3. It will be an even bigger factor in Q4.

And maybe just a quick follow-up to that. Do you kind of expect that to continue into early 2023, like first quarter?

I mean, right now, I feel like the, uh, I think the downturn is, you know, not really sustainable in terms of alignment with consumer demand because I don't think the demand is down as much as what we're actually seeing. So. I don't think that takes place for very long and I would. Believe that at some point in time in the 1st quarter that starts to correct itself.

That is helpful. And then just more broadly on Dyneema, now that you've had that asset for a couple months, any kind of positive surprises or negative surprises as you start kind of going through the integration process?

Look all good so far, and it's been just a little bit over a month, so I'm really happy with the team that's joining us. I think they're pretty energized about becoming part of Avian as well, so the feeling is mutual. That's a great start. Obviously, we love the business that they're in. I think you can see one of the reasons why when you kind of look at defense on that slide 19, obviously, it's a defensive market for us and a challenging set of circumstances. So, no, nothing else to really report on that. I think we're off to a good start.

Great. Thank you.

Thank you. And our next question comes from Lawrence Alexander with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Hi, everyone. This is Dan Rizawan for Lawrence. How's everybody doing? Just for clarification, the 295 in pro form, well, I should say the sales and EPS pro forma guidance for 2022, that also excludes the contributions from distribution in the first half of the year, correct?

That's correct.

Okay. I just wanted to make sure. And then one of the things that others have talked about is concerns with energy curtailment amongst customers or amongst yourself. Is that something that could affect you guys, and is it something that you expect to affect your customers' production?

I mean, I think the bigger concerns for us are probably, I mean, I would just start with suppliers in Europe, particularly those that are in Germany. Look, at this point, I haven't seen that. impact us or them for that matter, but I know it's on the table for discussion. And I would just imagine that that would ultimately impact customers as well. I couldn't quantify that for you at this point, but that's the biggest areas of concern.

Would there be a difference, I guess, with the different end markets? Obviously, healthcare wouldn't, I would think, not be something that would be affected, but something, I guess, more traditional industrial would. Is that how I should think about it as well?

Yeah, I'm not sure it's that perfect at all. I mean, look, with respect to sources of supply, particularly in Europe and where base materials come from. So, I mean, I think that's something that, you know, governments will really have to weigh and think about as they, if they need to ultimately curtail energy use, is that they still need to find a way to maintain supply to essential industries like healthcare. I don't know exactly how that's going to take place at this point, but I'm certain that there would be, and I would hopefully there'd be some exceptions in that regard and, or they look to, you know, importing in some fashion.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Certainly.

Thank you. And our next question comes from David Wong with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. Just going back to the Dyneema business, can you talk about the volume trends you're seeing for Dyneema? It looks like EBITDA margin was 28% in Q3. Is that primarily due to higher energy costs? And can you also talk about your expectation for Dyneema margins going to Q4 and 23?

Yeah, so first of all, hi, David. Secondly, I'd say that You know, Dyneema and the APM business is a more energy-intensive business than, you know, the legacy ABM businesses. We are feeling that right now for sure. That is, you know, impacting the numbers in Q3. We'll do probably even, maybe it's about flat between Q3 and Q4, about the same year over year. That margin number you're referencing is about spot on, and that's where I kind of expect things to end the year.

And then I guess just taking the macro forecast and what you're seeing as it is, can you talk about your playbook for 23? And I know you don't give guidance, but can you talk about your confidence level in growing EBITDA in 23?

Well, at this point, I mean, looking at what the fourth quarter looks like and how much EBITDA is down, I don't think EBITDA is going to go up in the first part of 2023. We haven't given any guidance, but if I see some demand trends continuing into the beginning of next year, I think that's going to be a tough hurdle to get over, at least in the first half. We really are just in the beginning stages of kind of formulating our view on 23. That's something we normally do after we provide our four-quarter update in late January, early February, and hopefully we're prepared to do it at that time. But Look, right now, I mean, demand's down significantly. We're in a recession. This isn't going to be over in 90 days. So I really think we've got a tough road ahead of us here for probably at least a couple of quarters. Okay.

Thank you.

Thank you. And we have a question from Eric Petrie with Citi. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning, Bob. Can you talk about, in a little more detail, the larger buckets and sustainable solutions, like lightweighting, and then any update on recycling solution efforts by your customers?

Yeah, I mean, the first thing I would point out, and, you know, Jamie made this, I think, comment just in comparing, you know, some of the different bridge schedules that we have in here, that you can look at sustainable solutions and see that it's kind of roughly you know, flat, I think, on an OI basis, but packaging is down. So what you do see is that you've got favorable pricing and mix kind of more than offsetting what you see in demand is down. I think a lot of that's actually due to destocking more than anything else in, you know, packaging. It's not due to loss of share or due to people shifting from a sustainable solution to one that's, you know, not. I don't really think that's really in place. It's mostly just destocking. And I certainly say that there's still a high degree of energy and interest in being able to use more recycled content and to make products more easily recyclable. I do think there's a dynamic coming though with higher level of inflation and it won't really be about customers changing the mix of their product as much as there might be a change in sort of how consumers think about you know, major brands versus store brands and so on. I think that has yet to play out. I don't think that's happening right now, but certainly could in the future. So, anyway, still positive trends on lightweighting and recycled solutions probably is the two biggest year-to-date when I look at overall what's driving that to maybe answer your question more succinctly.

Okay. And then secondly, can you just remind us how much in terms of earnings outdoor high performance is down here today? And then when do you think the stocking completes and kind of anniversary is that?

Yeah, it's down about, I think, $14 million for the full year. And we're really in the process. I mean, last year's fourth quarter was a week. So I think we're right on the edge of lapping that. know absent any further de-stocking or something like that that takes place this year but i don't think the year-over-year exchange is going to be that big in q4 great thank you that was our last question i just want to say thanks everybody for joining us on the call today we look forward to uh uh giving you an update after we've concluded our our fourth quarter results And as always, if you have other questions, please give us a call. Thank you.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.