speaker
Operator

Good morning, everyone. My name is Jamie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle and Manufacturing First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer period. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press the star key, then the number one on your telephone keypads. If you would like to withdraw your question, you may press the star key and then number two. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. And at this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Mr. David Lim, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Lim.

speaker
Jamie

Thank you and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AEM's first quarter earnings call. Earlier this morning, we released our first quarter of 2022 earnings announcement. You can access this announcement on the investor relations page of our website, www.aam.com, and through the PR Newswire services. You can also find supplemental slides for this conference call on the investor page of our website as well. To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1-877-344-7529, replay access code 7397562. This replay will be available through May 13th. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties which cannot be predicted or quantified and which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed. For additional information, we ask that you refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Also, during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding these non-GAAP measures, as well as a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information, is available on our website. With that, let me turn things over to AAM's Chairman and CEO, David Dowk.

speaker
David Dowk

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the first quarter of 2022. Joining me on the call today are Mike Cimani, AAM's President, and Chris May, AM's Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I will review the highlights of our first quarter financial performance. Next, I will touch on some exciting news in the quarter, including our recent acquisition of Techfor, an important win with Geely, AM's PACE and PACE Pilot Award nominations for electrification technology, and the publication of our sustainability report. Lastly, I'll discuss our updated 2022 financial outlook before turning things over to Chris. After Chris covers the details of our financial results, we will open up the call for any questions that you may have. So let's begin. AM's first quarter 2022 financial results were affected by rising input costs and the continuing global supply chain volatility. The unprecedented operating environment that started in 2020 continues into this year. That said, we remain focused on the qualities that differentiate AM, which are operating excellence, product quality, ensuring the continuity of supply to our customers, and generating profits and free cash flow. AM's first quarter sales were $1.4 billion. Sales were impacted by volatile production, but schedules did improve somewhat on a quarter-over-quarter basis. We believe the OEMs will continue to prioritize their light truck schedules which is good for AM. However, supply chain stabilization, namely semiconductors, may not occur until 2023. Inventory levels on key programs that we support remain low, and consumer demand for these products appears resilient. Simply, OEMs cannot build their respective large SUVs and trucks fast enough. AM suggested EBITDA in the first quarter of 2022 was $196 million, or 13.7% of sales. In the quarter, we were negatively impacted by rising input costs, supply chain constraints, and continued semiconductor disruptions. Material and utility inflation accounted for nearly 200 basis points of margin degradation in the quarter. These input cost headwinds will continue to be a challenge in this year. The operating teams are looking into cost structure improvements and value engineering initiatives. Additionally, we are also having ongoing discussion with our OEM customers on offsetting this inflation. So far, we have made some progress, and discussions have been constructive but are still ongoing. AM's earnings per share in the first quarter of 2022 was one penny per share. AM's adjusted EPS was 19 cents per share. Even with these challenges, AM continued to deliver positive free cash flow generation in the quarter. This is a compelling view of the strength of our operating model. AAM's first quarter of 2022 adjusted free cash flow was $54 million. Our capital allocation strategy is very straightforward. We continue to advance key strategic growth initiatives and strengthen the balance sheet. And we achieved both in the first quarter of 2022. Chris will provide additional information regarding the details of our financial results in a few minutes. Now let's talk about some recent key highlights, which you can see on slide four of our slide deck. We announced that AM entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the Tech4 Group for an enterprise value of 125 million euros. We are very excited about this acquisition, as it provides strong synergy potential, diversifies both our geographic and customer mix, and enhances our portfolio in electrification components. This is a nice, bolt-on acquisition for us, and we expect the deal to close in the second quarter. Additionally, we want a major program with Geely to supply independent front and rear drive axles for our premium vehicle. Our products will support both internal combustion as well as plug-in hybrid versions of this program. This win continues the theme of securing business for our traditional products while we pivot to electrification. From an electrification standpoint, Our P3 two-speed electric drive technology with two-speed architecture and a drive axle has been nominated as a finalist for the 2022 PACE Award. This electric drive is on multiple variants for a premium European luxury automaker that is based in Germany. We're happy to say we have started production on this drive unit, and we are receiving interest on this specific technology from other automakers at this time. And it's also been nominated as a PACE Pilot Award finalist for our next generation 3-in-1 wheel-end electric drive unit. This assembly fully integrates the motor, gearbox, and inverter into an elegant, compact, and power-dense design. This technology platform can be used in wheel-ends, EDUs, E-beam axles, and other applications across multiple vehicle segments. Our electric drive technology leadership and innovation are well represented with our PACE Award nominations as well as our past wins in these areas. This is also evident with our very constructive electrification dialogues with multiple global OEMs as manufacturers are focused on this very important transformation. Our state-of-the-art technology provides a formidable value proposition as OEMs have to balance various capital needs. It's our goal to be a key supplier and partner when it comes to electric drive units, sub-assemblies, and components. These are very exciting times for AM as the electrification opportunities continue to grow and now represent over 70% of AM's quoting activity. Finally, we're very happy to have earned the 2021 GM Overdrive Award. This is a great distinction as it is reserved for suppliers who display an outstanding achievement across GM's global purchasing and supply chain organization's key priorities. AEM was recognized for our performance in the launch excellence category. From an ESG perspective, we are also very pleased to announce that we recently published our 2021 sustainability report. Within this extensive report, we outline new goals and objectives for AEM. Our goals are to be net zero carbon emission by 2040, to purchase 100% renewable energy in the U.S. by 2025, and to achieve zero waste to landfill status for all facilities by 2035. These are ambitious goals, but AM desires to create a better tomorrow. Further, we also set our 2030 DEI demographic goals to increase the representation of women and minority team members at AM. We believe diversity drives creativity, which leads to long-term value creation. We are deeply committed to properly growing our business in a way that is both sustainable and socially responsible. Now let's talk about our guidance on slide seven of our slide deck. Given the challenges in the supply chain, the geopolitical uncertainty, and production schedule volatility, we have updated our 2022 financial outlook. AMA is now targeting sales of $5.6 to $5.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $785 to $830 million, and adjusted free cash flow of approximately $300 to $350 million. From an end-market perspective, we now anticipate North American production at approximately 14.3 to 14.7 million units versus our prior outlook of 14.8 to 15.2 million units. Even during these uncertain times, operation in our business is running well in the areas that we can control, and we believe we are well positioned nicely as the production environment improves driven by strong demand and inventory replenishment. That said, our aim is on the future, and we will continue to focus on generating strong free cash flow for the business, strengthening our balance sheet, securing our traditional business, advancing our electrification product portfolio, and positioning AM to properly grow, especially in the area of electrification and mobility. That concludes my remarks. Let me now turn the call over to our Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Chris May. Chris?

speaker
David

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. I will cover the financial details of our first quarter results with you today. I will also refer to the earnings slide deck as part of my prepared comments. So let's begin with sales. In the first quarter of 2022, AAM sales were $1.44 billion compared to $1.43 billion in the first quarter of 2021. Slide 9 shows a walk of first quarter 2021 sales to the first quarter of 2022 sales. First, we account for the unfavorable impact of the semiconductor shortage, which we estimate to be approximately $31 million on a year-over-year basis for the first quarter of 2022. Annual contractual pricing was approximately $8 million, and metal market pass-throughs and FX added approximately $39 million to sales. During the last several quarters, we have continued to see an increase in the primary index-related inputs to metal-based materials that we purchase. You may recall we mitigate a portion of this risk with our customers by passing through the majority of index-related changes. The metal portion of this column reflects these elevated pass-throughs on a year-over-year basis. Now, let's move on to profitability. Gross profit was $187 million or 13% of sales in the first quarter of 2022 compared to $227 million in the first quarter of 2021. Adjusted EBITDA was $196.1 million in the first quarter of 2022 or 13.7% of sales versus $262.9 million or 18.4% of sales last year. Please refer to our adjusted EBITDA walk down on slide 10. During the quarter, semiconductor sales disruptions had a negative impact of approximately $7 million, annual contractual pricing had an impact of $8 million, and net material freight utility inflation lowered EBITDA by approximately $28 million. Our R&D spending in the quarter increased $3 million year over year, driven by launches and electrification development. The performance in other columns reflects an increase in project expense, and some inefficiencies caused by volatility in production schedules versus a year ago. We continue to experience increases in index-related metal market costs, and the retained portion impacting us this quarter was approximately $7 million. Let me now cover SG&A. SG&A expense, which includes R&D, in the first quarter of 2022 was 86.1 million, or 6% of sales. This compares to 6.3% of sales in the first quarter of 2021. AAM's R&D spending in the first quarter of 2022 was approximately $35 million compared to $32 million last year. We will continue to control our SG&A costs while investing in and increasing our R&D spend to advance our next generation electric drive technology platforms. Let's move on to interest and taxes. Net interest expense was $41.7 million in the first quarter of 2022. compared to $48.2 million in the first quarter of 2021. We continue to benefit from debt reduction and refinancing actions in the form of lower interest costs. In the first quarter of 2022, we recorded income tax expense of $3 million compared to an expense of $8.8 million in the first quarter of 2021. For 2022, we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 15 to 20 percent. We would expect cash taxes to be in the $50 to $60 million range. Taking all these sales and cost drivers into account, our gap net income was $1 million, or one cent per share, in the first quarter of 2022, compared to 38.6 million, or 33 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2021. Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the impact of items noted in our earnings press release, was 19 cents per share in the first quarter of 2022, compared to 57 cents per share in the first quarter of 2021. Let's now move to cash flow and the balance sheet. Net cash provided by operating activities for the first quarter of 2022 was $68.5 million. Capital expenditures netted proceeds from the sale of property, plant, and equipment for the first quarter of 2022 were $24.4 million. Cash payments for restructuring and acquisition-related activity for the first quarter of 2022 were $8.4 million. The net cash outflow related to the recovery from the Malvern fire we experienced in September of 2020 was $1.4 million in the quarter. In total, we expect approximately $20 to $30 million in restructuring and acquisition-related costs in 2022. Reflecting the impact of this activity, AAM generated adjusted free cash flow of $54 million in the first quarter of 2022. From a debt leverage perspective, we ended the quarter with net debt of $2.6 billion and LTM-adjusted EBITDA of $767 million, calculating a net leverage ratio of 3.3 times at March 31st. We expect to continue to strengthen AAM's balance sheet by reducing our gross debt and lowering future interest payments. In the first quarter of 2022, we conducted significant refinancing to further reduce interest costs and extend maturities. We also continue with our debt reduction initiatives by paying down $25 million of our term loan fee in the quarter. Before we move on to the Q&A portion of the call, let me close my comments with some thoughts on our revised 2022 financial outlook. As you can see from our press release, we have updated our outlook to $5.6 to $5.8 billion of sales, $785 to $830 million of adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow of $300 to $350 million. We've updated our outlook based on the latest and best information we have regarding customer production schedules and operating environment, including inflation headwinds and projected recoveries. Our North American production assumption for 2022 is 14.3 to 14.7 million units, and we expect the cadence of sales and related profitability to align with industry estimates of a stronger second-half volume timing versus the first half of the year. We continue to assume our customers will prioritize building full-size pickups and SUVs, but volatility remains across the entire spectrum of activities in our industry. That said, we will focus on what we can control, which are cost discipline, optimizing our operations, delivering high-quality products on time, and maximizing our cash flow conversion. We will navigate through the near-term challenges, and also in the meantime continue to provide compelling high-value products and customer diversification as evidenced by the new GLE Business Award we announced today. We continue to invest in electrification and bolt on high-value acquisitions like TechFOR to position us for future profitable growth that is aligned with our strengths and capital allocation priorities. And lastly, we will continue to develop and showcase highly advanced electric drive units, sub-assemblies, and components. Those efforts were recently recognized as PACE award finalists, as David mentioned in his remarks. Thank you for your time today and your participation on the call. I'm going to stop here and turn the call back over to David so we can start the Q&A.

speaker
Jamie

Thank you. Thank you, Chris and David. We have reserved some time to take questions. I would ask that you please limit your questions to no more than two. So at this time, please feel free to proceed with any questions you may have.

speaker
Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, please press the star, then the number one on your telephone keypads. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. And our first question today comes from John Murphy from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

speaker
John Murphy

Good morning, guys. Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for the detail this morning. If we look at slide 10 and think about your comments about, you know, these discussions you're having with your automaker, you know, customers as potentially getting some recoveries or greater recoveries, I'm just curious where the greatest opportunity is because, I mean, you traditionally have, you know, in metals markets, you have pretty good pass-through through indexing and other agreements. So, I mean, on the raw side, you're not too exposed, so it's sort of the untraditional costs or the costs that aren't typically passed through that I guess you might be discussing with them. So, As we look at this, I mean, it's really that $28 million that would be sort of a new area of discussion or focus. I'm just curious what the opportunity set is there and how far along these discussions and what do you think the potential for success is?

speaker
David

Yeah, John, just to maybe – this is Chris. Good morning. Just to maybe frame up that $28 million, about two-thirds of that relates to net material costs that we've increased in terms of inflation. And we reset a lot of the purchasing prices with our supply base on the 1st of January. The balance of that or the remaining third is about consider that freight and utility related. So in terms of how, you know, look, we're addressing these issues with our customers. As you know, it's a very sensitive topic with our customers. We've continued to make good progress with them. We've benefited from some progress in the first quarter, and I would expect progress in these discussions to receive ultimately a reasonable recovery on some of these costs through the course of the second quarter and early part of the third quarter.

speaker
John Murphy

Okay, but I'm sorry, I mean, usually there's kind of a tape delay on this stuff. So you think there's a reasonable portion of this $28 million that's going to be recovered in the coming second and third quarter? I'm sorry, is that what you said, Chris?

speaker
David

Yeah, on a prospective basis. As we have reset a lot of our pricing with our supply base, we are in with our customers having active discussions on compensation related to some of those increases that we've already begun to experience here in the first quarter.

speaker
John Murphy

Okay, that's encouraging. And then just a second question on slide four. You know, I mean, obviously, you know, you could argue that the GLE contract is kind of outsourcing of traditional products, but, you know, it's kind of in that vein. So, just curious, if you think about sort of these new codes that you're, you know, winning business with, how much opportunity there is there for some traditional products? And maybe even in the incumbents that there might be some level of outsourcing, maybe if you juxtapose that opportunity set on traditional products, with your view of making acquisitions for technology like Tech 40 integrating to your traditional product?

speaker
David Dowk

Yeah, John, this is David. First and foremost, our objective was to try to secure our next generation business on our traditional or conventional product. We've made tremendous progress on that as we've announced previously in earlier calls. So we feel real good about the cash generation that we're going to be able to realize going forward in the future for an extended period of time. At the same time, there are other opportunities that are presenting themselves, some new program opportunities as well as some potential outsourcing opportunities that fit right into our wheelhouse and non-existing equipment, so we're very pleased with the opportunity. Geely just happens to be one of the latest ones. At the same time, it does have a plug-in hybrid application associated with that, so it depends on which way you want to look at that electrification versus conventional. We're happy to take it either way. And then at the same time, we do see a significant amount of electrification opportunities presenting themselves. And like we said, each quarter that just continues to grow in our backlog that we're quoting, or I should say are quoting opportunities, and that represents over 70% of the business there. So we're going to continue to grow in our conventional products. We're going to continue to grow in electrification, especially electrification because it makes up the majority of what we're quoting today. But we also in the future, and we're here to help. Great. Thank you very much.

speaker
John Murphy

Yep.

speaker
David Dowk

Thanks, John. Thanks, John.

speaker
Operator

Our next question comes from Ryan Brinkman from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead with your question. Mr. Brinkman, is it possible your phone is on mute?

speaker
Brian

Oh, I'm sorry about that. Thanks for taking my question. As we go about modeling, which is on Tech4, as we go about modeling that acquisition, What can you tell us at this stage about the margin profile of that business? And, you know, it was announced in the press highlighting the pivot toward electrification. I understand it broadens your electrification product portfolio, but, you know, is there anything you can say about, like, what percentage of TechForce revenue or maybe backlog stems from electrified vehicles?

speaker
David

Yeah. Hey, Brian, this is Chris. You know, we did disclose at our press release the just in terms of framing the size of the tech floor acquisition from a revenue perspective. Last year's revenues for tech floor were approximately 285 million euros, and we're looking to close on that here in the second quarter. We have not disclosed specific margin profile associated with that, but I would think as one of the crux of the key elements of this transaction, this is a high synergy deal for us. By 2023 estimates, you know, think of that value of that purchase price around three times our synergized EBITDA, so that would give you a little bit of a framework of how we think about this business transforming over the next 18 to 24 months. In terms of the revenue profile, you know, we project by 2025 approximately 40% of the revenue for our tech floor acquisition will either be better or I would call propulsion agnostic, meaning it serves both ICE vehicles and electric vehicles. So this is one of the more attractive elements of this transaction. It brings us some new components on our metal form side of the house to support the bed business, but also a lot that's fairly agnostic in terms of propulsion. So again, the key element of our strategy for that acquisition. Hopefully that helps.

speaker
Brian

Okay. Yeah, it does. Thanks. Finally, I'm still on tech for, you know, I recall when you purchased MPG that they were a supplier to you also. And so some of those sales became like intercompany transactions and with the benefits in the case of those sales to EBITDA instead of, or EBITDA margin instead of to revenue. And I was just looking on the Techfor website and I saw they had a press release about how they were an American Axel supplier of the year a few years ago in Brazil or whatnot. So I just wanted to get a sense too, and maybe I missed it, but what percentage of Techfor's revenue was coming from American Axel as we sort of, you know, think about the modeling implications of that too.

speaker
David Dowk

Yeah, Ryan, this is David. A small percentage of their revenue comes from American Axle, although they are a very good supplier to us out of our Brazilian operations. As Chris indicated here, we're going to continue to use our operational excellence and really focus on the synergistic opportunities to drive margin enhancement into the business. Clearly, we'll look at plant loading initiatives. We'll look at buying power initiatives and other initiatives to achieve those synergies. But we're very excited about this acquisition and while growing our business and pivoting the business toward to support an electrification in the future so okay very helpful thank you yeah thanks Ryan and our next question comes from Joe Spock from RBC Capital Markets please go ahead with your question thanks for morning everyone I was I was wondering if

speaker
Ryan

Can you just help us a little bit on the updated guide versus prior? I think previously you were looking for metal markets to be $150 to $200 million plus and called about a $30 million negative on EBITDA. What's the updated contribution to the new guidance from that on both the top line and on EBITDA?

speaker
David

Yeah, from a metal market pass-through perspective, Joe, that would still remain very similar. And you can see that run rate flowing through our first quarter. So from a metal perspective, not a lot different from where our guide was 90 days ago. If you think about why the top end of our range from our revenue is down, think holistically. In particular, the North America markets are down about 3% versus our previous volume estimates. Of course, half our business is full-size truck related, so that, our view, has been very stable over the last 90 days in terms of volume projections. So really, it's the balance of our business, and metal is relatively very similar to where we were 90 days ago.

speaker
Ryan

Okay, so the reduction is pretty much volume-based. I guess if metal markets, and this is a dangerous statement, but if they actually hold from spot, is there still an impact into 23, or... would 23 be more neutral on both counts?

speaker
David

Yeah, if metal holds at these levels, and as you know, Joe, they reset every 30 days. We saw metal start to trail down in the first quarter, and then they spiked up in May, for example. It's obviously very difficult to predict. But if they hold at these levels for the bulk of this year on a year-over-year basis, stepping into 23, it would be relatively neutral. I mean, there's a lot that goes into it, but the macro is how you should think about it.

speaker
Ryan

Yeah, perfect. And then just finally... And, you know, David, maybe this even sort of ties in a little bit to some of your sustainability comments. I guess just functionally, when you are selling a, let's call it a three-in-one or an electric drive unit that has a motor, right, you're not, I think you're not doing the motors, but the motors clearly have some sensitive commodities in there. One, have you done in audit of your suppliers to, in terms of sort of making sure there's, you know, sufficient supply of rare earths or whatnot to sort of meet your goals. And then I get, and as well as, I guess, for sustainability purposes that they're coming from the right place and, and B when there is a, if, if, and when there is a change in that price to sort of see what we've given, what we've seen in some other commodity relates, who's like, who's, Who pays for that increase? Is that something you're going to have to absorb as you sort of pay for the motor and then sort of pass that on through to the customer?

speaker
David Dowk

A couple questions within your question, so let me just kind of work my way through this a little bit here. Clearly, what we're going to do is, from a motor standpoint, inverter standpoint, we're buying some of those today. We have agreements in place with those suppliers today and obviously have agreements in place with our customers. When it comes to the rare earth metals, we have to, not only on semiconductors but also all these other components, we need to understand where our supply base is getting their materials from, have transparency to that, understand what risk it may have, ask our suppliers to provide us the robust supply chain of supply. Obviously, that's become a huge issue the last 18 months as it relates to supply chain visibility and transparency. So there's a lot taking place already that the OEMs are asking for, as well as the Tier 1s are asking for, to get deeper into the tiers, including the raw material sources. Also, we're looking at alternatives to those rare earth metals as far as advancements and technologies that make us less dependent on on those rare earth metals and the countries that provide those rare earth metals. And then on the material increase side of things, again, that's a negotiation case by case with our customers, but clearly we're not going to absorb all those in the future. We've got to be able to have the ability to pass those adjustments on to our customer base. But, again, that's an individual negotiation.

speaker
Ryan

Thanks for all that. Yeah.

speaker
Operator

Sure. Sure. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. Our next question comes from Dan Levy from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead with your question.

speaker
Dan Levy

Hi. Thank you for taking the questions. I'm sorry if I missed it earlier. I think you may have mentioned it, but just an update on your cost guidance, which was $40 million initially. And maybe you could just talk broadly about the types of costs that you're seeing, be it labor, freight. We know that you're very energy intense in your operations. And, you know, what piece of that might be sticky versus something that's more temporary?

speaker
David

Good morning, Dan. This is Chris. Yes, the guidance that we released in our previous earnings call did show a net $40 million increase for purchased materials. Obviously, with our updated guidance you see here today, that has significantly increased in terms of the net cost associated with that. And as we mentioned on one of the previous questions, you know, we're still having active negotiations with our customers to mitigate some of that increase, but, of course, still work to do. But that's, of course, why we provide a range from an EBITDA perspective. The second half of your question relates along the lines of stickiness. Obviously, the negotiated elements of items that we're working with our customers on, that kind of mutes that from a stickiness perspective in terms of impact to us. Freight, you know, obviously will ebb and flow a little bit with market conditions, and we saw increases in freight here in the first quarter. We saw some of that in the back half of last year. And we also have a fair amount of productivity initiatives in terms of that cost area for us that can help mitigate some of that. But again... I think it's some of the core elements of the company trying to regionalize production to support customers also tries to and allows us to protect ourselves somewhat from that. But that, I would say, can ebb and flow over time. And then, of course, the other largest element that we're experiencing would be utilities and then labor. Utilities, again, I would suspect that's going to ebb and flow some. Obviously, we're at a peak for a variety of different reasons on the macro environment sector, so I would expect that to trend in different directions based on the macro environment. And from a labor perspective, we, as is pretty much everyone else inside of this industry and almost every other industry, are facing labor inflation pressures, and I would expect those to be, in terms of cost, stinky. But the focus is leveraging our operating system to work on efficiencies and mitigate that cost over time through, I would call it old-fashioned productivity, automation, and things of that nature to kind of keep some of that inflation at bay over an extended period of time. That's how I think about our different cost elements. Hopefully that answers your question.

speaker
Dan Levy

Great. And even if some of this cost is sticky, even if we just assume that inflation is what it is, there's no reason to believe that your incremental margins on any volume recovery wouldn't be similar to what they've been in the past, call it that 25% plus contribution margin, correct?

speaker
David

When you think just pure impact of volume changes, you are correct.

speaker
Dan Levy

Okay, great. And then just as a second question, given it's a more uncertain environment and the goal for the timeline of reaching 2x net set to EBITDA is probably pushed out somewhat given the macro volatility, how does the balance sheet – how does the playbook change for any balance sheet actions? Clearly, you just did an acquisition, so I think that shows some confidence. But how do things change with an elongated timeline to reaching 2X?

speaker
David

Yeah, from a balance sheet perspective, look, I think our operations have been set up and we continue to operate them to generate strong cash flow. We continue to take action on the gross debt side of our balance sheet. We paid additional debt down in the first quarter of this year in addition to announcing our tech floor acquisition. So we'll just continue to strengthen the balance sheet from a gross debt perspective, meaning reducing it The net leverage obviously will come when it comes. We're going to continue to focus on reducing that over time. You know, we're highly confident in our ability to generate cash flow and to work our capital allocation playbook appropriately.

speaker
David Dowk

Yeah, Dan, this is David. You know, we've been very consistent in regards to our capital allocations is that we're going to support the organic growth and book business that we have, which is over $700 million over the next three years as we talked. We're going to continue to pay down debt. We've demonstrated that every quarter, including last quarter. And we're also going to focus on tactical acquisitions that are within our capital structure that make good sense for our business, which is also evident with what we just did with TechPort. So we're going to do it all on balance. Quarter by quarter may vary between those three items, but those three items are the main direction that we provide our organization as it relates to capital applications.

speaker
Dan Levy

Great. Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator

And, ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time, and I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Lim.

speaker
Jamie

Great. We thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM. We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

And, ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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