American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.

Good morning, everyone. My name is Jamie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the American Axle and Manufacturing second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer period. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press the star key and then the number one on your telephone keypads If you would like to withdraw your questions, you may press star and two. As a reminder, today's event is also being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Mr. David Lim, head of investor relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Lim.

Thank you and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AAM's second quarter earnings call. Earlier this morning, we released our second quarter of 2023 earnings announcement. You can access this announcement on the investor relations page of our website. and do the PR Newswire services. You can also find supplemental slides for this conference call on the investor page of our website as well. To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1-877-344-7529, replay access code 490-7646. This replay will be available through August 11th. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties which cannot be predicted or quantified, which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed. For additional information, we ask that you refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Also, during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures information regarding these non-GAAP measures as well as a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information is available on our website. With that, let me turn things over to AAM's Chairman and CEO, David Dowd. David Dowd Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone.

Thanks for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the second quarter of 2023. With me on the call today is Chris May, AAM's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. To begin my comments, I'll review the highlights of our second quarter financial performance. Next, I'll touch on some incremental electrification business development news in the quarter. Our technology and our approach to the market through our components and our drive units continues to gain global momentum and is driving interest across multiple segments and applications. As the transition to electrification unfolds, AM will be at the forefront of that change with our cutting-edge electric propulsion technology that delivers robust power output, superior MVH, and compact designs. After Chris covers the details of our financial results, we'll open up the call to any questions that you may have. So let's begin. AM's second quarter of 2023 sales were $1.57 billion. AM continues to be impacted by intermittent downtime at a number of our customers. Although it has become more difficult to pinpoint the cause of this downtime, We believe it is a combination of continuing supply chain challenges, including the lack of labor availability and active inventory management by our customers. On a positive note, we have seen some improvements sequentially regarding these industry issues, but we will continue to monitor the overall macro environment and remain focused on the factors that we can control. From a profitability perspective, AM's adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was $192 million, or 12.2% of sales. The margin performance reflects the impact of production volatility and inflation. In addition, we continue to experience elevated launch costs and inefficiencies driven in large part by labor availability. We expect these costs to improve throughout the second half of the year as we adjust our business appropriately. Chris will provide more details around our financial performance in a few moments. AM's adjusted earnings per share in the second quarter of 2023 was $0.12 per share. AM generated a strong positive cash flow in the quarter. AM's adjusted free cash flow was very strong and nearly $100 million in the second quarter. Let me talk about some business updates, which you can see on slide four of our presentation deck. Last quarter, we announced a significant E-beam axle award with Stellantis. This quarter, we're following up with another E-beam award with an undisclosed OEM. The program is for a light-duty truck application in China. Additionally, we're announcing additional wins with our electric components business. These wins were multiple global OEMs supporting programs both in North America as well as in Europe. Today's announcements reinforce AM's broad electric vehicle product portfolio, our capabilities, our technology, and our approach to the market. From a recognition standpoint, we are very excited to share that AM also made Forbes America's best employers for diversity and for new graduates. AM is focused on fostering a safe, inclusive, and accepting work environment. In addition, one of our goals is to develop the newly hired graduates to become AM's future business leaders who will not only drive future profitability and growth for the company, but also have a strong sense for community and social responsibility. To close out my comments, slide five shows our guidance, which is essentially unchanged. AIM is targeting sales in the range of $5.95 to $6.25 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $725 to $800 million, and adjusted free cash flow approximately $225 to $300 million. And we're forecasting North American production of approximately 15.5 million units. However, as you all know, our sales performance is more dependent on the production of certain significant platforms with specific customers. In the continuation of the theme that started over the past several years, the operating environment remains dynamic. but we are hopeful to see additional industry stabilization in the second half of the year and starting to see signs of that. As such, we believe the industry is positioned for stable and positive trajectory in the coming years. As we've communicated before, our focus and aim is on the future, and we'll continue to drive our efforts towards securing our legacy business, generating strong free cash flow, strengthening our balance sheet, advancing our electrification portfolio, and position AM for profitable growth. The future is very bright for AM, underpinned by our award-winning electrification technology. Let me now turn the call over to our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Chris May. Chris?

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. I will cover the financial details of our second quarter with you today. I will also refer to the earnings slide deck as part of my prepared comments. So let's go ahead and begin with sales. In the second quarter of 2023, AM sales were $1.57 billion compared to $1.44 billion in the second quarter of 2022. Slide 7 shows a walk of second quarter 2022 sales to second quarter 2023 sales. In the quarter, pricing was a $4 million impact. Positive volume mix and other was $106 million, and the tech floor acquisitions, at the beginning of June last year contributed $69 million on a year-over-year basis. And lastly, metal market pass-throughs and FX lowered net sales by approximately $38 million, with metal and FX both lower. Overall, while the North American production was up close to 15% year-over-year, our primary full-size truck platforms with GM and Stellantis were up just over 4%. Now, let's move on to profitability. Gross profit was $178 million in the second quarter of 2023 as compared to $174 million in the second quarter of 2022. Adjusted EBITDA was $191.6 million in the second quarter of 2023 versus $195.1 million last year. You can see the year-over-year walkdown of adjusted EBITDA on slide 8. In the quarter, bond mix and other added $31 million of adjusted EBITDA. reflecting a 29% contribution margin on AAM's higher sales. R&D increased by approximately $2 million to support product launches and our electrification technology development. Net inflation was a headwind of approximately $14 million. AAM's inflationary cost recovery discussions remain ongoing with our OEM customers, and we expect resolution should be achieved in the second half of the year with most of our customers. The combination of launch costs, performance, and other impacted EBITDA by approximately $27 million in the quarter. The drivers behind this bucket were good overall performance by the AEM's driveline segment, offset by a combination of launch costs, as we continue to ramp up significant new programs, the impacts of production volatility and inefficiencies at certain plants. Going forward, AEM's launch costs should diminish in successive quarters as we progress along their launch curves. we would also expect customer production volatility to continue to improve. As for inefficiencies, we are addressing challenges at underperforming locations, which largely stem from labor availability, which are impacting throughput, scrap, the need for expedited delivery, and some other premium costs. Again, we expect these matters to be resolved this year. Let me now cover SG&A. SG&A expense, including R&D, in the second quarter of 2023 was $91.1 million, or 5.8% of sales. This compares to $84.8 million, or 5.9% of sales, in the second quarter of 2022. AAM's R&D spending in the second quarter of 2023 was approximately $37 million. As we indicated entering into 2023, R&D will trend in the $40 million range per quarter. as we continue to invest in our electric drive technology, capitalizing on the growing number of electrification opportunities that are before us and to launch new programs. Let's move on to interest and taxes. Net interest expense was $44.3 million in the second quarter of 2023, compared to $39.5 million in the second quarter of 2022. Although our total debt is lower at quarter end on a year-over-year basis, the rising rate environment is driving the interest expense increase. In the second quarter of 2023, our income tax expense was $5.3 million as compared to an expense of $0.6 million in the second quarter of 2022. For 2023, we expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be somewhat elevated at approximately 50% for the midpoint of our guidance range due to a valuation allowance as mentioned on our first quarter call. We also expect cash taxes of approximately $65 million this year. Taking all this into account, our GAAP net income was $8 million, or 7 cents per share, in the second quarter of 2023, compared to a net income of $22.9 million, or 19 cents per share, in the second quarter of 2022. Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the impact of items noted in our earnings press release, was 12 cents per share in the second quarter of 2023, compared to 22 cents per share for the second quarter of 2022. Let's now move on to cash flow and the balance sheet. Net cash provided by operating activities for the second quarter of 2023 was $132.8 million. Capital expenditures net of proceeds from the sale of property, plant, and equipment for the second quarter of 2023 were $44.1 million. Cash payments for restructuring and acquisition-related activity for the second quarter of 2023 were $7.1 million. Reflecting the impact of these activities, AAM generated adjusted free cash flow of $95.8 million in the quarter. From a debt leverage perspective, we ended the quarter with net debt of $2.4 billion and LTM adjusted EBITDA of $723 million, calculating a net leverage ratio of 3.3 times at June 30th. Driven by AAM's strong cash flow performance in the second quarter, we continued to reduce our outstanding debt by over $25 million. we will continue to utilize the free cash flow generating power of AAM to strengthen the balance sheet by reducing our outstanding debt. As for the rest of the year, slide five shows our full year guidance. Our 2023 financial targets are unchanged. For sales, we are targeting a range of $5.95 to $6.25 billion for 2023. This sales target is based upon our production assumptions for our key programs, and a North America production of approximately 15.5 million units. For our guidance range, we continue to anticipate the GM T1XX program to be flat to up to approximately 5% to 10% on a year-over-year basis. We note that our total sales are more sensitive to production of certain key platforms versus just overall inventory production. In terms of quarterly cadence considerations, we would expect launch costs to improve in the third quarter, and customer inflation recoveries in the back half of the year. Operational inefficiency should diminish over the balance of the year. While uncertainty remains, we are cautiously optimistic that the industry operating environment will continue to improve throughout the year. Our adjusted EBITDA target is $725 to $800 million, and our adjusted free cash flow target is $225 to $300 million. In conclusion, we continue to make good strides with our electrification business development and technology, reduced launch costs, progress on efficiency gains will continue, and we are optimistic about our commercial recovery discussions with our customers. As we head into some interesting times, we are focused on remaining nimble, optimizing our business, and looking forward to capturing updrafts and macro conditions as they materialize. Thank you for your time and participation on the call today. I'm going to stop here and turn the call back over to David so we can start Q&A.

David? Thank you, Chris and David. We have reserved some time to take questions. I would ask that you please limit your questions to no more than two. So at this time, please feel free to proceed with any questions you may have.

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, you may press star and 1 on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Our first question today comes from John Murphy from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Good morning, guys. Good morning. One quick question first on the 29% close or incremental margin you were talking about on the revenue to EBITDA and buying sticks. You also mentioned something about some performance pressure from the volatility of schedules that was in the bar of negative $27 million on the EBITDA walk. So, I mean, are you pulling that out and saying that that's not part of the incremental? And just how should we be thinking about these incrementals going forward? Maybe if you could give us the number on that volatility cost in the quarter.

Sure. Yeah, when we talk about our contribution margin as it relates to even on our volume, that is sort of pure variable profit. So that's running at 29%. You've heard us historically talk about it'll range anywhere from 25% to 35% based on mix. So that's our pure variable profit on those incremental sales, or decremental. In this case, they're incremental. The performance piece that you're talking about is in the $27 million bucket. Think about half of that bucket is related to launch activity in the beginning of the quarter, especially, and the other half is related to some of these inefficiencies. And I would expect that half of that bucket to continue then to diminish over time through the balance of the year from a performance standpoint. That's the impact from a sequential from an inefficiency perspective.

Does that qualify? Yep. And your expectation is that close to zero as we exit the year. Is that a fair statement? Yeah, I mean, it should be. It'll be definitely trending that way. Yes. And David, just a second question on the EV transition. Obviously, two of your large customers or two large customers here in North America, maybe three, are pushing back their expectations for EV volume ramp. I'm just curious what that means for your business. Does that mean You know, on the core side, you're going to generate, you know, mornings in cash flow that will fund the future. And that may shift the way you run the business or, you know, you may just keep running it and investing heavily in the EV side. I'm just curious, you know, how you're interpreting this and what it means for your strategy and business near term and long term.

Yeah, John, I don't think it really changes our strategy that much. I mean, obviously, we're going to continue to optimize our core ICE business and get the most value out of that business. As you indicated, the performance of our current business is really what's helping us fund the future. But as Chris just commented, we're going to spend approximately $40 million per quarter in regards to R&D costs, and most of that is dedicated towards supporting the transition to electrification. So we're going to continue to round out our portfolio, continue to grow our backlog and new business to electrification while optimizing our core business.

Great. Thank you very much, guys.

Thanks, John. Our next question comes from Ryan Brinkman from JP Morgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I heard you say in the prepared remarks that there may have been some adverse customer mix or lower production on a particular customer program. Wanted to, you know, dig into that sort of only reiterated guide despite now expecting the 15.5 million North America production versus 14.5 to 15.1 earlier. It sounded like, you know, at least some of your programs might still be experiencing some unexpected downtime. I heard you say that it could be, you know, harder to pin down the reason for the downtime versus earlier when maybe automakers were more public about it clearly being semiconductor related, et cetera. So I don't know if you're able to say like which program or programs that you supply into that might've tracked softer. And do you think it's due to the customer taking downtime to adjust to lower demand, which could presumably continue, or do you suspect it relates instead to a more like supply side explanation that could resolve?

Yeah, Ryan, this is Chris. I'll take the first part of your question here. I think the crux of your question is our macro view from a production standpoint is 15.5 million units. That's up from our previous view, but yet we didn't raise our sales guidance in what is contributing to that thought process. So what I will tell you is, first and foremost, if you look at the assumptions for our sales, It's really the underpinning of our specific platforms. And to be frank, our view on our big platforms that drive this company have not really changed much over the last, call it, quarter or two. As we mentioned in the prepared remarks, our view on the General Motors full-size truck platform continues to remain the same as it was previously, from a year-over-year flat to up 5% to 10%, bracketing our range. as well as our other top platforms with Stellantis and other ones with General Motors. Those continue to remain pretty consistent sort of quarter over quarter. We do see some ancillary benefit on the elevated production in some of our smaller components we would supply, for example, through the metal forming group. So you do get a little bit of lift on that, but our main programs we have not changed our views on.

Okay, thanks. I did want to check in on that other comment on the slide, too, about, you know, the guidance being based upon sort of the current business environment versus the you know, the earlier business environment. Are you seeing the same, you know, improvements in business environment that other suppliers are reporting, such as steadier customer production schedules generally, or, I don't know, moderating non-commodity supply chain costs from a lot of freight this quarter, or just how are you feeling about the overall industry operating backdrop?

Yeah, I think from a production standpoint, Ryan, what I would tell you is our second quarter in terms of downtime, duration of downtime, notification of downtime, still impacted negatively, but better than we saw and experienced in the first quarter of this year. That does continue, though, into the third quarter. One of our largest endpoint plants from a light truck perspective is down, for example, two-thirds of the month of July. So that does continue, but it is sequentially better than what we experienced in the early part of the year. From a cost perspective, You know, we've seen some favorability from a macro conditions on things like utilities and freight, but we still face pressures from an inflation standpoint on labor, as well as from our supply base, who are also experiencing these type of inflationary cost pressures that they're looking to pass up through the chain.

Those continue. Very helpful. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Dan Levy from Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.

Hi. Thank you for taking questions. I think you may have addressed this in the comment, which is launch costs dissipating, but maybe you can give us a little more color, Chris, on the 1H to 2H bridge, and specifically you have revenue down slightly at the midpoint, but your margins up a point. That's just purely the launch costs dissipating? Is there anything optical with metal optic color on the bridge and margins?

Yeah, if you think about First half performance, first half, second half in totality, if you're talking about call it at the midpoint of our range, the revenues would be about equal, which would imply sales per day slightly higher because there are lower production days in the second half. Our view is some of our larger platforms are more consistent from an absolute volume perspective, plus our backlog is a little bit more weighted to the back half of the year from a revenue perspective. And then absolutely, yes, it would also imply an uptick in some level of margin performance, and that's driven by elimination of some of these launch costs as they dissipate as some of our larger programs were launched here in the first half of the year. Think of, for example, the GM midsize truck platform that was launched in the first quarter and early parts of the second quarter, as well as gaining on some of those efficiencies related to labor availability that we've been working through in a meaningful way here in the second quarter that will continue into the third quarter and then will start to improve itself as we exit the third quarter into the fourth. That's how I would think about that.

Okay. Thank you. And then just as a follow-up to John's question earlier, David, just on this issue of EV targets getting pushed out by some of the D3s, Are you seeing any change in the OEMs in terms of their focus on vertical integration with the thought that maybe, you know, they won't have enough volume to justify vertical integration efforts for certain components, and so this plays in a bit more to the outsourcing opportunity and thus the opportunity for you on drive units?

And I mean, there's obviously uncertainty as the OEMs are still trying to figure out their long-range product plans and what type of vertical integration strategy that they want to have. What's clear to us is that they're going to do part of it. The question is, how much are they going to do? All we want to do is make sure that we've got the proper product portfolio in place to be able to satisfy any demand that they go to the outside to support. And we're very well positioned for that. As we've conveyed to you all before, we're approaching the market where we do it from a sub-assembly standpoint. We can do it from a gearbox standpoint, and we can do it in a final assembly, and that final assembly can either be an EDU, like an electric drive unit, or a complete E-beam assembly, which is more applicable to pickups and things like that for load carrying capabilities. So we're growing in all those segments right now. At the same time, we're hopeful that we can continue to grow maybe at an accelerated rate, but that's going to be dependent on the OEMs making their their vertical integration strategies. But, you know, back to John's earlier comment in regards to these volumes maybe pushing out a little bit. You know, again, I still think ICE is going to be here much longer than maybe others think. I've been very vocal and very open about that. But at the same time, I'm a big believer in electrification technology. I just think it's going to take a little bit longer to be fully adopted because there's a number of issues that got to get addressed from the infrastructure standpoint, the charging station standpoint, the affordability of materials, the affordability from a consumer standpoint, you know, from a mass market. And then ultimately the OEMs also have got to demonstrate the ability to make money here because that's ultimately what's going to continue to fund their future organizations going forward. So I think my personal feeling is I think there will be a balance, what that balance and mix is going to be in the future of TBD. But at the same time, we'll be prepared to support whatever that mix is going to be.

Great. Thank you.

Yeah, thanks, James.

Our next question comes from James Piccarello from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead with your question.

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Hi, James. Just on the metals and FX flow-through, the first half has seen an EBITDA benefit of $23 million. And I think your original guidance, which, of course, remains intact, you baked in a full-year headwind to EBITDA of about $20 million. So, what's driving the major delta there? And, you know, how are you thinking about the rest of the year? And then just to follow on to that, can you, you know, can you provide any color on, you know, how you're managing the, you know, your Mexican, you know, peso exposure and the associated, you know, impact there to your conversion? Thanks.

Yeah, certainly. I'll take this here, James. From a metal market perspective, you know, we have seen the first half of this year the a benefit, if you will, as we've seen some softening in some of those metal indices. So you're seeing that translate in a positive relationship towards typically when they go down, our revenues go down, but we capture a little bit of that 10% to 20% residual to the profit upside. The inverse happens, of course, when they go up. We've seen them start to trend up a little bit here in the back half of the second quarter, but not meaningfully. How do we think about these unfolding for the balance of the year? Typically, as you know, they change every 30 days for us. We just assume sort of run rate where we exited the second quarter from a level of metals indices. In terms of profitability standpoint, like I mentioned, they have an inverse relationship. We saw some increasing metal content at the end of last year. Aluminum was very strong and elevated. We saw some mixed trends on some of the other commodities. So that was our guidance going into the year. This is obviously playing out a little bit better for us from a metals perspective. But again, changes every 30 days. and we're subject to the whims. The design of our contracts with our customers are to insulate us and protect us at a macro level for these type of metal changes. That would be my first point. Second point, you've asked about the peso side. Yeah, obviously that currency is a very important currency for us from a cost perspective. We buy over or consume on an annual basis over 5 billion pesos, so think of a few hundred million dollars worth of pesos. We do have a rolling hedge program in terms of that where we hedge between zero to three years out. And we're in a pretty good spot for that here this year. We disclose all our hedging relationships, of course, inside of our queue. But in a typical time frame, we're hedged on a next 12-month rolling basis anywhere between, call it, 75% to 80%. Hopefully that frames up our peso exposure. But it is strengthening, and obviously that will be a little bit of a headwind for us as we head more into next year. Very small amount for the balance of this year.

Understood. That's helpful. And just on the eBeam Axel Award in China, will that be through any joint venture relationship for you guys, or is that going to be just completely done in region through your consolidated operations, just any color you can provide there?

Yeah, we're just not able to comment on that at this time, based on what the customer has asked us at this point in time. But at the appropriate time, we certainly will do that and let you know that.

Got it. Thanks. Yeah.

And ladies and gentlemen, our last question today will come from Tom Narayan from RBC. Please go ahead with your question.

Oh, yeah. Thanks for taking the question. Actually, if you could provide maybe some color and specifically how you guys are improving the labor availability. I know you've called that out a couple of quarters now. Yeah, just what specifically you're doing that gives you confidence that will improve.

Yeah, this is David. Tom, first and foremost, I mean, obviously we're extending the pool in the area that we're looking to attract talent from. We're paying referral bonuses. We're paying retention bonuses. We've increased our wages multiple times. We're demonstrating greater flexibility in regards to how we are hiring and the type of positions and roles that we have. We're also putting in appropriate skill set training and development. It's one thing to vet them and then hire them, but also then retain them so we can slow down some of the attrition rate that's going on in the marketplace today. But everything I just covered with you and a number of other things are definitely starting to pay off and we're starting to address and get these issues taken care of. And we're highly confident that we'll have it resolved here in the second half of the year.

And some other elements for that, Tom, as well, as we look at some of the product loads in our facilities, looking to optimize some of our open capacity elsewhere that has labor availability, or I should say doesn't have laborability issues that we can leverage from that perspective, as well as you've heard us also talk about automation. So that takes time to implement over time. So we're looking for areas to support that as well. So we're really attacking this on all fronts.

Got it. Thanks. And then my follow-up... On the D3 volume issue in North America, we're not necessarily seeing that happen as much with maybe European OEMs. Just curious, if you're making these products, is it possible to shift your strategy to selling to other OEMs, or are you kind of just fixed on developing EV products for OEMs? you know, your existing OEM kind of customers that you have that are maybe more North American?

No, I mean, our approach to the market is a global approach to the market from an electrification standpoint, broken down into different segments that I outlined earlier. Clearly, you know, we service 75% of our business today is here in North America, so we want to work to protect the existing programs that we have while also growing that. But we also, as we've highlighted before, one-size-fits-all awards in Europe as well as in China. That's all electrification-based. So, again, we'll go where the opportunities are. At the same time, be respective of the OEM's decisions in regards to what they think the launch time will be for their respective programs.

Great. Thanks.

Thanks, Tom. I believe that was our last question. Thank you, Tom. And we thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AEM. We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.