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spk00: Greetings and welcome to the Ball Corporation 4Q 2021 earnings call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, we'll conduct a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, please press the 1 followed by the 4 on your telephone. If at any time during the conference you need to reach an operator, please press star 0. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Thursday, January 27, 2022. I would now like to turn the conference over to John Hayes. Please go ahead.
spk10: Great, thank you, Malika, and good morning, everyone. This is Ball Corporation's conference call regarding the company's fourth quarter and full year 2021 results. The information provided during this call will contain forward-looking statements. Actual results or outcomes may differ materially from those that may be expressed or implied. Some factors that could cause the results or outcomes to differ are in the company's latest 10-K and in other company SEC filings as well as company's news releases. If you don't already have our earnings release, it's available on our website at ball.com. Information regarding the use of non-GAAP financial measures may also be found in the notes section of today's earnings release. The release also includes a table summarizing business consolidation and other activities, as well as a reconciliation of comparable operating earnings and diluted earnings per share calculations. Joining me on the call today are Dan Fisher, our President and CEO-elect, and Scott Morrison, our Executive Vice President and CFO. I'll provide some introductory remarks. Dan will discuss our company's performance and trends. Scott will discuss key financial metrics. And then we'll finish up with closing comments. 2021 was a strong year for Ball. We exited the year with momentum and expect another strong year in 2020. Our global beverage can volumes were up 7%. Aerospace revenues were up 10%. Comparable operating earnings increased 12%. And comparable diluted earnings per share increased 18%. despite ongoing challenges related to the pandemic, adverse weather events, global supply chain disruptions, and higher costs. We also increased EVA dollars over 7%, returned approximately $950 million to shareholders after investing over $1.7 billion in capital expenditures in 2021. For the fourth quarter, global beverage can volumes increased 7%, comparable operating earnings increased 17%, and comparable diluted earnings per share were up 20% versus 2020, despite persistent dunnage shortages and cool, rainy conditions during Brazil's seasonal summer, which muted overall shipment growth in the fourth quarter and the full year. As we look forward, we expect growth to accelerate further, supported by strong demand for sustainable aluminum packaging, aerospace executing on significant contracted backlog, reaping returns on capital deployed, and maintaining pricing leverage across our innovative and sustainable product portfolio. Yesterday, in addition to declaring our quarterly dividend and following our review of the company's governance profile, our board of directors amended the company's bylaws to accomplish three things. One, to opt out of the classified board structure required by Indiana business corporation law in order to begin to de-stagger our board. Two, to prevent shareholders to amend the bylaws. and three, to increase the board retirement age to 75 years from 72 years. As per the press release we issued yesterday, the board intends to recommend shareholders approve the amendments at our 2022 shareholders meeting, and more information will be found in the forthcoming proxy statement. In addition, and as part of a multi-year succession planning process that began before the onset of the COVID pandemic, we announced that Dan Fisher will be assuming the role of CEO and that I'll remain chairman. Dan is ready, and all of us on the board have a high degree of confidence in his ability to lead our great company. Dan will be the 12th person in our 142-year history to have the privilege to serve as Ball's CEO. Going forward, I'm handing over the reins to Dan to lead the company, and after 70 earnings and M&A calls with the investment community over my 20-plus years with Ball, today will be my last one. You're in great hands going forward, and I can also say with confidence that while I will miss you all, I will not miss these calls. My time going forward will be spent chairing the board and its related responsibilities, helping Dan and our sustainability advocacy work with various stakeholders, burrowing in on the philanthropic work that my wife Susie and I have established, spending more time with family and friends, and perhaps most importantly, being the biggest cheerleader of this great institution. Thanks to each of you for your support over these years. This is an amazing company in an amazing industry working with and in conjunction with amazing people. If you were to give me a clean sheet of paper to design the most ideal job in the world, it would be this. And I'm the luckiest person in the world for that. And it is time. Dan has proven that he is ready and has an excellent management team to continue and accelerate The strong financial, operational, and cultural performance we have experienced not only since 2010, but indeed since 1999 when I joined the company. When I reflect on becoming CEO, the bar was set very high then. And to me, our Drive for 10 vision was intended to replicate or exceed the prior decade's performance and returns over the following decade. And you know what? We did just that. And at the same time as we sit here today, we have more opportunities to continue this growth than we did in 2010, and there has never been a better opportunity set than the company has in front of itself. However, what will be required to capitalize on those opportunities going forward will no doubt be different than what was required in the past. There will, of course, be challenges Dan and the team will face, but the leadership, the culture, the people, our EVA and ownership mindset, and our Drive for 10 vision will be there to support and guide Dan and team just as they were there for me and team. Right now, I also think about the more than 24,000 employees around the world. The power of we, not me, at Ball is alive and real, and it has been an honor to serve our company alongside them. They really are what makes the company better each and every day. Those aren't just words. It's the truth. So it's with great pride and optimism that I turn the call over to Dan and Scott to speak to our performance and the outlook for 2022 and beyond. Thank you, everyone. And with that, our new incoming CEO, Dan Fisher.
spk08: Dan. Thanks, John. I would be remiss if I didn't properly and publicly thank John Hayes for his 22 years of service to Ball Corporation and for his personal support and mentorship of me as a leader at Ball. Some of you may have listened to nearly all of the 70 earnings and deal-related investor calls John has participated on during his tenure. As you know, John dedicated his time to ensuring the company remained committed to its long-standing culture, EVA and ownership mindset, and high ethics while also being innovative, inclusive, sustainability-driven, and positioning our business for global growth, while also supporting our communities where we live and operate and generating great returns for fellow shareholders. We as owners and students of Ball and our industries are better off because his leadership and dedication. We will forever be indebted to you, John. The performance and stock price development under your leadership speak for themselves. And while it is indeed a team sport here at Ball, John was the team captain for the past decade. John, thank you for setting a high bar for us. I can assure you that speaking on behalf of all Ball employees, We are focused on replicating and or exceeding the company's performance under your leadership. Another decade with nearly 500% return sounds pretty good. Our team is up to the task. I am humbled and honored to assume the role of CEO and carry on the ball culture. Drive for 10 vision, EVA discipline, and ownership mindset. And as the saying goes, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. We know who we are. We know where we're going and we know what is important. Now onto reviewing our performance and outlook. We continue to strive to keep our teams safe and educated about vaccinations and boosters and focused on their mental health. We're not immune to the external forces impacting the global operating environment. However, our teams are doing a heck of a job navigating those external forces and filling in for one another when needed. We extend our well wishes to our employees. customers, suppliers, stakeholders, and everyone listening today. 2021 was another year where our ball team and businesses faced challenges and through it all rose to the occasion to care for one another and deliver value to our stakeholders. In 2021, our business highlights included our global beverage business, completing the startup of four new multi-line facilities, three in North America, One in South America in the expansion of existing facilities across all regions. The company also announced five additional greenfield facilities, two in North America and three in EMEA, which will come online in 2022 and beyond. Our global aluminum aerosol team introducing new reclosable aluminum bottles for personal care and other categories. Our aluminum cups team signed contracts with the world's largest retailer and continue to have our cup featured at key sporting events and venues. Our aerospace team expanding its infrastructure, opening its state-of-the-art payload development facility in Broomfield, Colorado, expanding our aerospace manufacturing center in Westminster, Colorado, as well as successfully launching the Ball-built OLI land imaging instrument on NASA's Landsat 9 satellite. IXPE astrophysics mission spacecraft and the optics and mirror systems aboard the James Webb Space Telescope. Our North America aluminum packaging business continued continuing progress toward aluminum stewardship initiative certification following South America's ASI certification in the fourth quarter of 2021 and EMEA's ASI certification in 2020. The company also announced ambitious 2030 sustainability goals including inclusion and diversity goals, recycling goals, and our aspiration to achieve net zero before 2050. Our business has hired over 2,600 people in 2021 to support our long-term growth and attrition, largely due to retirements, and returning approximately $950 million to shareholders after investing $1.7 billion in capital expenditures to generate additional profitable growth for decades to come. In 2021, our global packaging businesses absorbed $120 million of non-aluminum inflationary headwinds and additional costs to start up four new facilities. Also, in North America, EMEA, and South America, operational efficiencies, price-cost squeeze, and advance of contractual cost recovery and geopolitical volatility, respectively, resulted in loss-rejection and money was left on the table in 2021. As we embark on 2022, contractual price escalators based on PPI and other indices, which phase in throughout the year, normal cost pass-throughs and our additional commercial cost recovery program benefits will generate significant incremental value and support higher levels of growth capital in 2022, which Scott will discuss later. Demand for aluminum beverage cans continues to outstrip supply around the world. We shipped 112.5 billion cans in 2021. 50% were specialty cans, and we exited 2021 with 12 billion units of new installed capacity. We also have plans in place to exit 2022 with another 12 billion units of new installed capacity. Capacity available to sell through in 2023 and beyond announced projects and line additions and existing facilities all underscore our late 2020 Investor Day commentary and additional long-term EVA generating contracts for committed volume are now in place to domestically supply our customers in the regions where we operate in 2022 and beyond. In addition to global beverage, our aerospace aluminum aerosol and CUPS teams continue to win new work and position and train talent to support multi-year growth and offset attrition largely due to retirements. To all the teams listening, thank you for finishing the year strong and leaning into another year of growth. We also appreciate your efforts to operationalize and commercialize sustainability, drive our D&I goals, and live the ball culture. As we discussed throughout 2021, growth isn't always linear. We continue to rely on our supply chain for raw material inputs, and look forward to additional investments being announced in 2022 to enable more growth for aluminum packaging. Given our established global scale, significant increase in installed capacity exiting 2021, our capable asset base and innovative product portfolio, we are on course to achieve double-digit global volume growth and global specialty mix in excess of 50% for full year 2022 and sold-out market conditions continuing beyond 2022. Now, a few brief comments on each region. In North America beverage, fourth quarter ship volumes were up 5% versus 2020 fourth quarter, excuse me, fourth quarter 2019 volumes were up 16%. During the fourth quarter, earnings were up nearly 17% as volume growth, specialty mix, and the operational benefit of better finished good inventory levels more than offset higher costs. and operational efficiencies in legacy plants brought about by dunnage tightness and indirect supply chain disruptions. Glendale and Pitson exited 2021 with four can manufacturing lines installed, and each have room for additional lines. Our Bowling Green Inns manufacturing plant started up successfully early in the quarter and continues to operate after incurring some roof damage during the December southeastern U.S. tornado outbreak. We are thankful our Bowling Green team and their families are safe. The plant's team's leadership, safety actions, and post-event resiliency were outstanding. The business continues work to build adequate inventory levels is ongoing. These actions formulate contractual price increases, higher levels of domestically produced cans, and cost recovery will further position the plants and our business for strong double-digit growth in 2022. Ball's previously announced multi-line greenfield plants in Nevada and North Carolina are supported by long duration contracts with strategic global customers and are on track to come online in late 2022 and early 2024, respectively. In EMEA, shipment volume for the fourth quarter was up 6% versus 2020 on tougher comps given prior year's 20% volume increases due to COVID reopening timing. and we're also up due to customers adding new can filling investments. Across Ball's EMEA business, demand trends and positive momentum continues. Near double-digit growth in 2022 will be driven by new and existing categories utilizing cans and available cans from our 2021 line additions and speed-ups across the region. In 2023 and beyond, our new greenfield plants in the UK, Russia, and Czech Republic which are supported by long duration contracts for committed volumes with global and regional key partners, will extend our ability to serve growing customers and categories. Our EMEA team is executing very well in managing complex country-by-country supply chain issues. Key inputs are in tight supply, and though we have contracts and mechanisms to control costs, We're keeping a watchful eye on driver availability and pandemic related labor shortages impacting timely stocking of store shelves. In South America, fourth quarter volumes were up 3% versus 2020 and up 16% versus 2019. 2020 volumes were up 12% versus fourth quarter 2019. due to timing effects related to COVID rebound and warmer temperatures during the seasonal summer fourth quarter. Cooler-than-normal seasonal temperatures and excessive rain in Brazil contributed to softer-than-anticipated volumes during the fourth quarter of 2021. We continue to see more earnings upside in South America in 2022 and beyond. The Frutal Brazil plant startup, its second line during the first quarter of 2022, additional investments throughout the region continue beyond schedule. In summary, our global beverage team is preparing ourselves and our supply chains for long-term durable growth while managing notable volatility. Our customers are continuing to lean on the can as their package of choice as brand proliferation and the blurring of the category lines accelerates. We are operating safely, controlling the things we can control, recovering costs, delivering high-quality cans to our customers from even more new facilities supported by equitable contracts, and closely monitoring global supply chains. Our aluminum aerosol team did a good job supplying growth across North America. The team continues to manage varying degrees of consumer demand volatility in Brazil and India. The business continues to make progress on the rollout of refillable, reclosable aluminum personal care and bottle packaging across multiple categories. To support the new CUPS contracts I mentioned earlier, We have increased marketing investments and are adding another cup manufacturing line in our Rome, Georgia cups plant. Following this investment, both lines will be capable of making multiple cup sizes. We anticipate profits starting in late 2022 and turning to aerospace. The team continued to win contracts and maintain record backlog. Segment operating earnings were up 38% in the fourth quarter versus 2020 supported by improved program execution. Carrying in the momentum from the fourth quarter, the business continues to be positioned for sales and earnings growth in 2022 and margin improvement in 2022, given the contract mix. Across all our operations, we are increasing year-over-year capital and training investments to deliver on strong contracted demand and position our plant operations for success. We appreciate all of the amazing work being done across the organization. And with that, I'll turn it over to Scott.
spk09: Thanks, Dan. Dan and John, I couldn't be happier for both of you. Congratulations, John. Thank you first and foremost for your friendship and for everything you've done for Ball. It's been a hell of a lot of fun. And thank you for your continued thought leadership on sustainability going forward. Dan, I'm very happy for you, your family, and for Ball. This is a great day. You're a great leader and ready for this role. I look forward to us continuing to work together. I have one word of advice for John. Work on your putting. When you don't have the CEO title, you're much less likely to be given those three-foot putts. And now to the numbers. Fourth quarter 2021 comparable diluted earnings per share were $0.97 versus $0.81 in 2020, an increase of 20%, and comparable full-year 2021 diluted earnings per share are up 18%. Fourth quarter and full-year sales were up due to pass-through of higher aluminum prices, higher sales volumes, and improved mix. Comparable fourth quarter diluted earnings per share reflects strong results in North America, aerospace, and other non-reportable, and lower year-over-year corporate costs during the quarter, offset by unfavorable euro earnings translation. In addition, the Ball and Platinum Equity announced sale of the Ball Metal Pack investment closed yesterday. As a minority partner, Ball's net proceeds from yesterday's transactions were approximately $300 million. The sale represents the final step in Ball's two-step exit from the tinplate steel food and aerosol businesses. Recall that Ball received approximately $600 million in cash proceeds in 2018 when our legacy steel food and aerosol assets were sold into the minority-owned JV with Platinum. Ball's balance sheet is very healthy with ample liquidity and flexibility. Year-end net debt to comparable EBITDA was 3.4 times and within our optimal leverage range. As we sit here today, some additional key metrics to keep in mind for 2022. Our full year effective tax rate on comparable earnings is expected to be in the range of 19%. Full year interest expense will be in the range of $270 million. And full year corporate undistributed costs recorded in other non-reportable is expected to be in the range of $120 million to reflect higher year-over-year incentives based on anticipated higher performance and investments to our systems infrastructure to support our robust growth. At this time, and given additional growth projects in all of our businesses to support EVA enhancing contracted volumes, we expect 2022 total capex to be at least $2 billion and to return in the range of $1.75 billion to shareholders in the form of share buybacks and dividends in 2022. We continue to see a path to doubling our cash from operations by 2025 and look forward to even more opportunities to invest in our businesses for profitable returns. Rest assured, while continues to be good stewards of our cash as fellow owners and through the lens of EVA discipline, we will prudently balance growth opportunities with consistent return of value to our shareholders via dividends and share repurchases. We look forward to consistently investing in our businesses and returning even more value to shareholders in the coming year. With that, I'll turn it back to you, Dan.
spk08: Thanks again, Scott. In summary, our drive for 10 vision continues to serve as our guide. We know who we are, we know where we're going, and we know what is important. We are positioned to exceed both our comparable diluted earnings per share long-term goal of 10 to 15%, as well as our EVA dollar growth goals of 4 to 8% per year in 2022 and beyond. While we are not immune in facing inflation, volatility, and supply chain headwinds in the near term, We are confident that we will get through it successfully and maintain our pricing leverage. Over our 142 year history, it has been done before and it will be done again. The decadal shift that will favor our packages is happening. We look forward to continuing our journey and being close to our customers, focusing on attention to detail, acting like true owners of the business, being good corporate citizens to our people and our planet, and returning value to our shareholders. And with that, Malika, we are ready for questions.
spk00: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen on the phone lines, if you would like to register for a question, please press the 1 followed by the 4 on your telephone. You will hear a three-tone prompt to acknowledge your request. If your question has been answered and would like to withdraw your registration, please press the 1 followed by the 3. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, it is 1-4 if you have a question. Our first phone question is from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
spk15: Good morning, and congratulations on an incredible career, John, and good luck in all your future endeavors. And also to you, Dan, congratulations on your new role as CEO. Thank you. I just, you know, I was just wondering if you could just parse out a little bit more of the volume trends by region, and specifically you discussed the headwinds in South America and some weather-related impacts In the fourth quarter, I think in North America, on overall earnings, you know, when we think about 22 and some of those headwinds maybe not recurring, how should we think about that demand progressing throughout the year?
spk08: Yeah, great. Maybe I'll start with kind of how we're seeing 2022 and the growth by the three large regions. I commented in my prepared remarks that And as you know, we've installed quite a bit of the 12 billion capacity that's exiting 21 is in North America. So you would expect, and that's what we anticipate, double-digit growth in that region. In Europe, we've made a lot of incremental investments. And so we think that that team will be able to deliver near double-digit growth. And in South America, we anticipate You know, we've commented on the 4% to 6% long-term growth trajectory. We anticipate being north of the, or in the higher range of that. And in all total, I mean, we've got a really strong chance to get to double digits in the global beverage business with the capacity we've installed and the demand profile and the execution. A little bit more commentary in and around South America. We were just talking to that team the other day. I mean, keep in mind in the fourth quarter, I think in Brazil in particular, that's really where we had some demand destruction versus sort of what we anticipated happening in the quarter. I think the rain in Brazil was up something like 300% versus a normal rainfall estimate. And then there were a lot, that's their peak season. And, you know, COVID started to show up in November and December. And they shut down a lot of opportunities for folks to congregate and get together and consume canned beverages. So those were the two fundamental issues that precipitated in Brazil. The good news and why we were able to deliver growth is we play in a lot more areas and countries in that region than in Brazil. And so that's what trended us toward growth is we had a really nice performance in a number of the other countries that we participate in. As we sit here today, COVID still persists. And so, you know, we're obviously monitoring it. It is peak season. The rain has stopped. The weather has improved. Those things are moving in our direction for South America. But we need to get beyond that. what the entire world's dealing with relative to Omicron to see us return to kind of what we should anticipate normally in the first quarter in South America.
spk15: Great. No, that's extremely helpful. And then just a really quick one. Obviously, you know, whether it's been supply chain logistics, raw materials, a lot of people have been dealing with higher costs. I think you mentioned you initiated additional cost recovery mechanisms throughout the quarter. If we assume that this persists a little bit longer into, let's say, the first half of next year, can you just discuss a little bit more what those actions are in terms of your cost recovery actions and any additional levers you can take to help offset this in the near term?
spk08: Yeah, thanks for that. So one thing to keep in mind is we didn't make this as clear. We're doing it in all of our businesses So that's one thing that wasn't maybe as clear when we commented on this plan of attack at the last earnings call. The teams are fundamentally going out and having conversations in a ball fashion with each one of our major customers. And so we're sitting at the table as partners and we're having those conversations. And I would say the feedback at this point overwhelmingly is we've made really good progress. We will see that improvement in 2022. One of the things you're pointing out is those conversations start with a point of view on what the world looks like. And so two months ago, I don't think anybody anticipated what was going on in energy prices, for instance, and the Ukraine impact. So we will have to have ongoing conversations as things in the world show up that none of us have anticipated or modeled. But The team's done a really nice job, and I think we're working toward a really nice plan, and we should see that show up in 2022. Great.
spk15: Thank you very much, and congratulations again.
spk08: Thanks a lot.
spk00: Thank you. And our next question is from Ganshan Punjabi with Baird. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
spk11: Hi, good morning, everyone. This is actually Matt Krieger sitting in for Gonsham. First off, congratulations to John and Dan on the announced elections and transitions yesterday. You know, just diving right into my first question here. You know, can you provide us with an update on some of the key growth categories across the beverage can market, you know, with a particular emphasis on on some of the categories that may have seen some, some choppiness over the past year, a year or so, such as, as hard seltzers and other products. It seems like there's plenty of new introductions and momentum elsewhere, but if we could get some details on that, that'd be great.
spk08: Sure. And I'll attempt to parse out some of this, um, uh, by region. Um, I would say globally energy drinks are on fire and we have a, uh, We have a very strong position with a number of those folks, and so we benefited from that in terms of our growth profile. Beer continues to grow across the world, but I'd say we saw an inflection of CSD as well in Europe, and we have a strong position there. In South America, all of the growth was fundamentally muted by weather patterns, but again, beer is the dominant player there. Growth happens or doesn't happen as a result of beer in South America. In North America in particular, we saw growth in CSD, double-digit growth in energy, sparkling water, slight growth. Domestic beer was down. Hard seltzers were down slightly, and craft beer was down slightly. But the largest category, CSD and energy, kind of for us and our portfolio did well. And that's what sort of carried the day for us in North America.
spk11: Great. That's helpful. And then, you know, can you talk a bit about how free cash flow is expected to evolve in 2022, maybe bridge 2021 to 2022? And then can you comment on some of the challenges or hurdles that you have to get over in deploying over $2 billion of capital in an environment that is increasingly marred by labor shortages and disruptions and kind of absenteeism. Some detail there would be great.
spk09: Sure. On the free cash flow front, we actually did a little better in 21 than we expected. We had some milestone payments that we collected really from our aerospace business that helped us. Also, when commodity prices rise, when aluminum rises, we get a benefit from a working capital standpoint because we have longer payable terms than we have receivable terms. And so that helped working capital in 21. In 22, we're kind of expecting relatively flat commodity prices and expecting free cash flow to be, or working capital to be relatively neutral. As it relates to deploying the capital, our teams have done a fantastic job of all the new builds all the incremental lines that we put in plants on time, on schedule. You know, there's a slip here or there for maybe a week or so, but I have to commend our operating folks. They have done a spectacular job despite all the challenges, despite the COVID challenges, despite the supply chain challenges. They've really done an excellent job. So it's not without challenges, but I think we have a really good plan as to how we're going to deploy this $2 billion of capital. And we expect the strong performance, operating performance to continue.
spk08: One build on Scott's comments relative to the execution and deployment. Remember three, four years ago what we decided to do was create a global engineering organization. And so we have the ability to deploy resources not region-dependent, but where the work needs to be done. And that team has done a remarkable job of organizing itself, standardizing install base. I think we got out in front of the process equipment buy. I think there's been a lot of things that we've done right over an extended period of time that are now showing up. And you can't underestimate the fact that we're hiring people well in advance. We're training them. When they come in, they know what to do. They feel safe operating in our environments. And I think that's enabled us to retain people far in excess of kind of what the industrial manufacturing sector is doing. So knock on wood, we're really encouraged about what we've done. And it's a really good building block and gives us a great deal of confidence that we're going to be able to continue to do that over the next 24 months.
spk11: Great. That's helpful. Congrats again, John and Dan. That's it for me. Thank you.
spk00: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Anthony Bettinari with Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
spk02: Good morning and congratulations to John for everything you've accomplished and to Dan as well. Dan, you talked about adding 12 billion cans this year after adding 12 billion last year. From a big picture perspective, can you walk through your major regions and maybe just discuss which might require imports this year and are extremely tight versus maybe regions where your supply situation might be getting maybe more comfortable or more normal?
spk08: The 2021 capacity, and it's probably reflected in my commentary for where we see growth in 2022, was overwhelmingly in North America. We did put in a greenfield facility in South America. We see the benefits of that. And we did incremental investments in both South America and EMEA. But transitioning in 2022, there will be more capacity going into South America and North America. That's where the majority of the 12 billion exit rate of installed capacity will come from. And then in 2023, you'll see, in 2024, you'll see a pretty significant step up in EMEA.
spk02: Okay. Okay, that's helpful. And then just on EMEA, you know, you obviously have a large Russia business. Do you anticipate the, you know, move in the ruble and tensions there to have any financial or maybe operational impact in the quarter and Can you help us understand how you might be sort of insulated from geopolitical risk or how you're thinking about that?
spk09: Yeah, it really runs as a dollar-based business as most of the Russian economy does because it's tied to oil. And our Treasury team does an incredibly effective job of insulating us from valuation changes in the currency, so you don't see much of that, to be honest.
spk02: Okay, that's helpful. I'll turn it over. Thank you.
spk00: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Mike with Barclays. Please go ahead.
spk05: Great. Thanks for taking my question, and I want to echo my congrats to both John and Dan. First, on beverage packaging and NC America, just as we're bridging to 2022 and the earnings potential for that business, can you maybe just help us with what one-time occurrences that hit the expense line that should roll off as we get into this year? and just what type of operating leverage we should expect from volume growth as well.
spk08: I'll make a comment, and then I'll give it over to Scott for additional detail. I'd say when we talk about, and we've talked about it time and time again here, the prepared remarks, sort of the net inflation drag, the majority of that was North America-related, and it's how we pass through inflation and our PPI mechanism. So when you're thinking about a year-over-year bridge, you should see the benefits of that inflation transition show up throughout the year because not every contract renewal happens on January 1st. There were, as you can imagine, countless supply chain challenges, et cetera. I'm cautiously optimistic that the supply chain and the ecosystem is going to stabilize somewhat. I can't guarantee that, but I do believe you'll see improved performance because we have exited North America in a much healthier inventory position in 2021 heading into 2022 than we had in 2020. That should improve. The net inflation passed through, and I'm very encouraged with the execution, as we just commented on, in terms of the project. Those will all be there for us to lean into. I expect North America to have a really nice year next year.
spk09: Yeah, I mean, the only thing I'd add is exactly on the PPI adjustments, you know, some happen in the first quarter, some happen in the second quarter, and some won't happen until the third. But by the third quarter, we should see all of that benefit or all of that cost recovery coming back to us, if you will.
spk05: Great. That's super helpful. And then second, just on capital deployment, if we go back to the investor day, shoot, about a year or so ago, you talked about roughly a billion dollars of CapEx per year through 2015. And now it seems like we're going to be running at double that this year and maybe a little bit of that's coming out of buybacks versus what you talked about last quarter. So can you just talk about what's driving that change? I'm just assuming the organic growth opportunity has simply gotten better, but just any color on kind of how you're looking at that and the trade-offs there.
spk09: Yeah, I think it's really the organic growth continues to strengthen. We're entering into additional contracts, long-term contracts with customers and And so we have a high degree of confidence in deploying this capital. It really hasn't changed a heck of a lot from our view in our investor day in 2020. If anything, it's just gotten firmed up more and become more real. And so we're executing on those plans.
spk14: Great. Thank you.
spk00: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Arun Wiswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
spk13: Sorry about that. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on the retirement, John, and congrats to you, Dan, as well. I guess just wanted to understand, we did hear some rumblings of some demand pullback or even maybe some COVID impacts in Q4, but it doesn't seem like there was any real impact on your business. I guess, was there any COVID impact? And I guess going forward, I guess, would you expect any impact from absenteeism or anything else like that that would linger and potentially put some of your projects at risk?
spk08: Yeah, thank you for that question. I would say COVID didn't impact our demand with the exception of in South America where it's peak season down there and, you know, they didn't allow for the public gatherings to the same extent. That's the one where it's most acute and we can describe that and understand that. We are absolutely experiencing some impacts to production here in the first couple weeks of January. I mean, it's the wave of Omicron has hit. I think we had nearly double digits Dislocation of our manufacturing folks in all three regions here last week is where it peaked. I think it's sharply rose, and now it's sharply declining. So I think we got a chance to deliver a strong first quarter. But, yeah, on the demand side, COVID, with the exception of South America, I'm not entirely sure we saw much impact. And I think the other question that you had was just relative to demand profile in general. For us, we've been very fortunate that the partners that we have are winning in the marketplace. And so I think in that regard, and obviously there's a ton of focus and has been over the last six months, the Spike Seltzer category, we had minimal exposure to that, coupled with the fact that a number of our key partners are doing extraordinarily well in the marketplace. So that may be an insulation from maybe other participants in the market, but, uh, I'll leave it there for now.
spk13: Thanks for that. And then, uh, just as a followup, I guess, um, you know, you obviously had talked about the 25 billion and 45 billion of, um, units that you plan to bring on. Um, that was about a year ago. Uh, you know, there has been some other announcements by yourselves and other competitors subsequent to that. Do you still think those are kind of the range that we'll expect to see or you see that, you know, maybe there's some upside to that or, you know, given that the demand continues to be robust, you know, that some of these markets are on fire. I've seen some real strong numbers in the RTD ready to drink cocktail market as well. So, Maybe you can just update us on your capacity plans and maybe for the industry as well. Thanks.
spk08: Yeah, versus our investor day 2020, late 2020, when we sort of laid out a multi-year growth plan. So as we sit here today, it was referenced in a previous question, we've spent capital in excess of what we had planned at that time up to this period, which is all good. We have really solid contracts that back it, EVA generative opportunities. So Based on what we've seen thus far, we're going to take advantage. If those opportunities continue to show up and manifest in the same way, we'll lean into them. We've got a healthy balance sheet, as Scott's already indicated, and if there's more opportunity to grow, we'll take advantage of it. I think one thing that is a sign towards more growth is is if you reference, and maybe Ann can send this out as part of our materials, but Ellen MacArthur Foundation produced the top 10 CPG companies and their producer responsibility recycled content targets over the next five years. Every one of them has a significant improved target position that they've said publicly, and they can't get there without aluminum is the bottom line. So we didn't see that. type of target and earnestness behind public targets from our largest customers. They're out in the public domain now, and they're going to have to hit those. So there's quite a lot of belief, at least as we sit here in Broomfield, Colorado today, that we've got more upside than we do downside in those projections.
spk13: Thank you.
spk00: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
spk07: Hi. Thank you for taking my question, and congratulations to you both, gentlemen. Just wanted to follow up on the volume number that you noted for the fourth quarter of 7%. Given what you kind of outlined for the various regions, it seems like there might have been maybe more in the kind of non-reportable segment that was strong growth, and I assume that's essentially imports to, you know, whether it's North America or other regions. So I was just wondering if you could give us a little bit more color on, you know, kind of what the numbers were for the non-reportable. And then for imports, as you see those into 2022, how should we think about those in terms of absolute numbers versus the strong 2021 that we saw?
spk08: Yeah, thanks for the question. You're exactly right. The other non-reportable was up double digits. And it's from a combination of our joint ventures around the world, majority-owned assets. So think Saudi Arabia, Southeast Asia. Cans were going into markets that were oversold from all of those areas. So that contributed to the uplift. Hesitant to comment on imports. I can tell you from our position, we are oversold in all three markets heading into the year. and we will have to continue to shift in unnatural patterns from those locations into Europe and North America in particular in 2022. I can't comment on the competitors, but we'll continue to see import cans for sure from us to the extent that our competitors need them. I don't know that information.
spk07: Got it. And in terms of finished goods, you noted that inventories, you continue to work toward normalizing that. I think in the past you've given kind of a sense for, you know, in terms of days where we are today versus historical. Could you just kind of update us on that, how much more work there is left to do to get to, you know, a place where you really feel kind of back to normal and have good inventory heading into kind of the summer season?
spk08: I think in Europe we're very close to where we need to be. And in North America I don't have the specific number. I think it was in the range of we'll be 10 days better than we were a year ago. in terms of finished good, and that's two weeks is a much better buffer than how we began the year last year.
spk07: Thank you, and best of luck to you both.
spk00: Thanks. Thank you. Next question is from the line of Salvatore Tiano with Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
spk06: Yes, thank you very much. John, congratulations on a great career, and Dan, congratulations on the new role. Firstly, I want to ask a little bit about the hard seltzer market. And since recently there have been some introductions in some more mainstream products of glass packaging, and there seems to be some saturation with all these brands and having all these different products, these really small subcategories of what was the hard seltzer market. Do you see any risk there that some of your customers, in order to differentiate themselves, may start devoting a little bit towards other packaging substrates?
spk08: No, I think they can because of the recycled content attributes and because of the commitments from all the major CPG companies. They just can't get to these commitments by transitioning into these other substrates. It'll be dilutive sometimes. I think the can is winning. It will continue to win. Every metric we have suggests, um, we're doing, we're doing more, we're doing, we're doing more with our major, uh, customers and they're telling us that they're going to lean into the can more and more. Um, so that from that standpoint, I think we're in a good, in a good spot. And then, uh, I just refer you to previous commentary on the spike seltzer market. Um, our exposure is very limited, uh, to that, um, And, yeah, I'll leave it at that.
spk06: Okay, great. And I know you discussed CapEx before. I don't know if I missed that part, but I'm just wondering when you think about the high, you know, the elevated CapEx number this year and especially next year's guidance, if you were to look, you know, a few months or a year back, how have things changed just because of inflation on that $2 billion figure?
spk09: Inflation is a part of it, but a very small part. The really driver is opportunities that we have to deploy capital. It's too bad during COVID, you know, that we're not doing plant tours and things. But if you went to Glendale, Arizona, that would be a great example of investments that we're making that are really just spectacular facilities. So it's really driven more by opportunities and increasing our capacity versus inflation. I mean, there's definitely some inflation in steel and putting up buildings and things like that, but that's not what's driving the increase.
spk06: Okay, great. Thank you very much.
spk09: Yep.
spk00: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Phil Ng with Jefferies. Please go. Your line is open.
spk12: Hey, guys. Congrats, Dan, in a new role. And, John, thanks for all the help over the years. Thank you. Thank you. My first question, Dan, you've been pretty explicit saying that 2022 in North America is going to be sold out again. But when we think about supply and demand for 2023, how are you thinking about it? I mean, are you expecting to get more balance at that point or still pretty much on allocation?
spk08: Yeah, 2022, 2023, it's a great question. 2022, what we see in front of us, we're oversold. 2023, will continue to be tight based on every conversation that we're having with our customers. I just continue to think this is decadental. I don't think this is a 2022, 2023, things get right, supply-demand balance is out. I think the sustainability tailwinds are so pronounced and the commitments are now so public from our customer base that they are going to have to move and to eliminate them to hit those goals. And so that's what we're monitoring right now.
spk12: Okay. That's really exciting. And then maybe a question for Scott. You know, for 2021, you had a net inflation drag, you know, from some of these non-metal impact. Did you call out what that headwind was in 2021? And for 2022, how should we think about startup costs relative to that $42 million you saw this year? And will that have a bigger impact on margins in South America, just given the amount of capacity there? that's coming on in that area.
spk09: Yeah. In terms of the inflation, it was over $120 million of net inflation that we had to take in 21. The vast majority of that being in North America, the rest, most of it being in Europe. As it relates to startup costs, we had 42 million in the U S we had 50 million overall. We thought we'd be a little higher in the U S more of that, a little bit of that shifted into the first quarter. So we won't see a decline necessarily. I think startup costs will still grow a little bit because we're still looking at expanding facilities here. As it relates to South America, though, the startup costs really get driven by North America where labor rates are higher. And so bringing people in six months early to train is more costly than it would be in South America. So while South America will have a tick up in startup costs, it's not gigantic.
spk08: A simple build on that is if we're spending capital at a like rate and we're standing up capacity in greenfields at a like rate, you'll start to see us comment less on startup costs because it's a recurring expense. And so the reason we spoke on it from 2020 to 21 is a significant step up in some very large greenfield facilities. And it was material, so that's why we commented on it. So I think we'll probably dissipate from those comments moving forward if we continue to spend, which for the foreseeable future we are.
spk12: Got it. That's helpful. And then, Scott, the $120 million of net inflation, that is $120 million that you were behind, right, that you need to hopefully recruit this year. Is that the right way to think about it?
spk09: Yeah, most of that we had to choke down in 2021. And then we mentioned about our PPI escalators that we have in most of our contracts. We'll recover that, but we'll recover some in the first quarter, some in the second quarter. And by the third quarter, we should have most of that recovered. Got it. Every contract is different, so it's not necessarily dollar for dollar, but it's pretty close.
spk12: Okay. And then we've seen magnesium prices take up a little bit. Is that something you guys feel good about, you know, passing through it pretty timely and then at least getting supply as well, particularly in Europe?
spk09: Yeah, well, you know, the metal is a passenger, so it's just a component of the metal. And things are volatile. I would say the supply chain is very tight and the metal supply chain is very tight. So I'm more concerned about that than I am about any particular component of the metal price.
spk12: Okay. Thanks a lot, guys. Yep, thank you.
spk00: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Kyle White with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
spk14: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. John, congrats on a tremendous career, and Dan, congrats on the new role. I wanted to ask about inventory levels, but more at the customer level. I guess you have a sense in terms of where your customers are at from their inventory standpoint, specifically in North America specifically. And how much rebalancing do you think needs to take place? Any way to potentially quantify in terms of how many billion units you think they are short on inventories?
spk08: Yeah, I don't have that detail in front of me. I think the team is marshalling through a really thoughtful inventory build plan in North America specifically. We're in a much healthier position year over year. I mean, keep in mind, we understand our A-level performance Inventory is probably 80% of our sales volume. We've got annual forecasts that we're operating off of. A lot of the labels that you'd see right now would be Super Bowl related, etc. So anything that would be a change in graphics, I think we've got good line of sight into. And I think the team is going to execute really well here in the first quarter.
spk14: Got it. And then I wanted to touch on CSDs, particularly in North America. I mean, historically, this category was driving declines for the industry, but it's now experiencing some growth, which is quite meaningful given how large the category is. I'm just curious what you're hearing from your key customers on this in terms of what is driving that growth, and are they bullish on it such that they are actually investing in incremental filling capacity for it?
spk08: They are absolutely investing in filling capacity for it. Demand aluminum, it's a combination of a slight Substrate shift or leaning in all the new products that are being launched in North America are being launched in cans And it will be interesting to see habits have clearly changed over the last two years There is more at-home consumption and that at-home consumption Overwhelmingly benefits aluminum packaging and so I think the combination of all those three we're talking to them we're planning longer term in terms of a surety of supply and And I'm kind of bullish on that segment for the foreseeable future.
spk14: I'll turn it over. Good luck in the year. Thank you.
spk00: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Mike Roxland with Truist Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
spk03: Thanks very much. Good morning, everybody. Congrats, Dan, on your additional role. Thank you. And congrats, John, on all your accomplishments, and in particular, your retirement from all these earnings calls. Just first question, just following up on what Phil mentioned, and Dan, your response being oversold in 2022, and then you mentioned 2023 will be tight, but you used the word oversold. So I'm wondering how much of your capacity production is accounted for in 2023 at this point?
spk08: I would say 95% is accounted for. There's probably an element of spot volume. But keep in mind, we've got contracts that roll over at various times. And so it's not 100% contracted, but it's overwhelmingly contracted. And I wouldn't parse out my comment about not saying we're oversold. You know, I'll give you more detail when we get more into 2022 as it relates to 23 and we have conversations with our customers right now. Everyone is laser focused on trying to navigate the here and now and getting cans on the shelves. And so we're talking about 2022, but I think our capacity that we're putting in place, as we've said now for several years, it's contracted, it's EVA generative. And we're going to like the returns.
spk09: And remember, it's January of 22. So we've been surprised by the upside since our investor day. And we're not making great predictions about 23, but to Dan's comment, everything we're seeing looks pretty darn good.
spk03: Gotcha. Very clear. And just one question following up on inventories and current supply chain logistics issues. how should we think about or how do you think about inventory levels coming out the other side of COVID? So obviously you had a certain level of inventories pre-COVID. Should we expect that inventories or you will be managing to a higher level of inventory going forward? To me, my sense is that, you know, this adjusted time needs to be modified given what everybody has been experiencing in the last 12 to 18 months. I'm not sure what your thoughts are, but just want to get your thoughts around inventory management on a go-forward basis.
spk08: Yeah, I've been in manufacturing for 30 years, and for 29 of those, we've been moving jobs overseas, and we've been low-cost country sourcing, and we've gone to a just-in-time mentality. And I think all of that will change moving forward. I don't know what that means in terms of working capital use of cash. I would imagine there would be a combination of folks are going to get a hell of a lot smarter and more effective and efficient on the stocking levels they have to manage that working capital. But you would think you're going to have to buttress the working capital with trucking continues to be a concern, a number of things that you're managing. But I think this just-in-time inventory phase may be a thing of the past for the next few years.
spk03: Gotcha. Good luck in 2022.
spk08: Great. Thank you. Malika, we're a couple minutes over, so maybe we take one more question.
spk00: Certainly. Next question is from the line of George Stafford with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is up.
spk04: Hi, guys. Thanks for fitting me in here. George, we got you. Lucky you. Oh, my gosh. Well, congratulations to both of you in the next chapters, and John in particular. It's been great working with you the last 22 years, and congratulations on all the performance. I guess I have two questions. I guess, first of all, thinking about Europe and what's been going on there from a geopolitical standpoint, are your customers, are you doing anything differently to manage against the risks? I don't know that you could, but if there is anything that you could share and how you're guarding against that, it would be appreciated. Second question, bigger picture. Dan, how do you see the company's evolution on a couple of fronts over your tenure relative to John's tenure vis-a-vis what you're going to do to promote sustainability and aluminum's place and how the footprint of Ball's facilities evolve over time? You have all these opportunities coming in. You're spending more capital than you should be given the easy returns that you're seeing. What's it going to mean in terms of your typical plant in terms of its flexibility, size, modularity, and so on? Thanks, guys, and good luck in the quarter.
spk08: Yeah, so a lot there. I will tell you the thing that I'm most proud of to inherit in this role is that, and John steward us to this point, we are a sustainability company. All of our strategies in all of our businesses are tied to circularity. And even in aerospace, we have a wonderful opportunity to lean into our climate censoring technology, our data analytics. And so I think that does a couple things for us. If you don't have sustainability tailwind, you've got a headwind. And our businesses have tailwinds. The other thing is it's an incredibly powerful attractor of talent, not just our incredible culture here at Ball, but folks want to make a change. They want to make a difference, and they can do that at Ball. And so I'm going to lean heavily into that, and I think the leadership team at supporting me and supporting our 24,000 employees all believe in that. And so what that means – We have to tell our circularity story. We have to own the aluminum story. We have to improve every aspect of that story. The primary goal of that is recycled content. And I think our supply chain partners know that. We know that. And we're going to try to influence the hell out of that over the next decade. One of the things that John commented on in his prepared comments are, I asked John specifically, to stay in role and support this business because he has been a foundational element and storyteller of our product. And John is going to continue to do that at the highest levels of our government and stakeholders around the world. And we're going to lean on that and continue to build off that. I'd say that our 24,000 folks are going to define our future a hell of a lot more than Dan Fisher is. But what we have, this culture, how we focus on our capital investments, and the company being a sustainability company first and foremost, is something that we've got a hell of an opportunity to build on, George.
spk04: Understood. And on Europe and footprint, and we'll let it go.
spk08: Yeah, the risk, maybe I'll talk to, we do a phenomenal job. We have a significant presence in Russia. As Scott has indicated, it's a dollar-based business. That's where the most speculation and geopolitical instability is right now. Maybe I could have Scott talk about how we look at hedging, how we protect ourselves in contracts and energy contracts, et cetera.
spk04: It's more about what your customers might be doing or not doing. Maybe it's something we can take offline, but it wasn't so much the hedging, but what are you doing to prevent against risk and your customers as well?
spk08: Yeah, they're still investing. They're investing in filling lines and an accelerated rate versus what we've seen historically. They're still bullish. We're still bullish on aluminum cans. And that's why we're continuing to lean in with, candidly, three new greenfields in Europe. That is a significant statement by us and our customers that have been contracted for those facilities to continue to grow in those areas.
spk04: Okay, Dan, why don't we table it from here? Thanks very much for the time, and good luck in the quarter. Thanks, guys. Thank you, George.
spk08: And, Malika, with that, I'll just thank everyone for their questions and look forward to speaking to everybody at the end of the first quarter, and everybody stay safe.
spk00: Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a good day.
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