8/29/2019

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Build-A-Bear Workshop second quarter 2019 results conference call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If you would like to ask a question today, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. If anyone to require operator assistance during the conference, please press star 0 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Jessica Schmidt of ICR. Thank you. You may begin.

speaker
Jessica Schmidt
Host, ICR

Good morning. Thank you for joining us. With me today are Sharon Price-John, CEO, and Voyne Todorovich, CFO. For today's call, Sharon will begin with a discussion of our 2019 second quarter performance and review the progress made on our strategy. After, Voyne will review the financials and share our guidance. We will then open the call to your questions. We ask that you limit your questions to one question and one follow-up. This way, we can get everyone's questions during this one-hour call. Feel free to re-queue if you have further questions. Members of the media who may be on our call today should contact us after this conference call with your questions. Please note the call is being recorded and broadcast live via the internet. The earnings release is available on the investor relations portion of our corporate website. A replay of both our call and webcast will be available later today on the IR site. Before I turn the call over to management, I will remind everyone that forward-looking statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors, including those set forth in the risk factors section in the company's annual report on Form 10-K. We undertake no obligation to revise any forward-looking statements. And now, I would like to turn the call over to Sharon.

speaker
Sharon Price-John
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Jessica, and good morning, everyone. In the quarter, even with the anticipated decline in retail revenue given the comparisons to last year's remarkable traffic-driving pay-your-age events, we improved operating results with gross margin expansion and expense management versus the second quarter last year, even with the backdrop of global and economic uncertainties. With the focus of our dedicated team, the quarter also saw growth in new revenue streams as we continued to execute our business diversification initiatives which we believe demonstrates the progression of our stated strategy. We also continue to build necessary infrastructure and to solidify relationships with best in-class partners, which we expect to further leverage the awareness and power of our brand across categories. In short, our long-term goal remains to evolve the company beyond the traditional mall-based retail concept among which it was established over 20 years ago. To that end, We recently completed the execution of some noteworthy agreements in the entertainment states, which I will outline shortly, that are expected to build on our brand strength and contribute to the advancement of our overall evolved business model. With U.S.-aided brand awareness over 90% and comparative brand metrics that are for parental trust and kid love that rival other family brand BMS, we understand the potential value that is inherent in our company. It is that same value that allows us to have a list of over 8 million opted-in email addresses for direct marketing and communication, 4 million active loyalty club members that represent an estimated 20 million household members, and nearly 45 million guests each year that come into a Build-A-Bear workshop, a level that is comparable to attendance at global recognized theme parks. On top of that, On a combined basis, there are over 110 million unique visitors to our website, YouTube channel, and other social media platforms annually, not to mention the millions of brand interactions generated by digital posts, often featuring heartwarming stories that go viral that are shared directly by our guests through user-generated content. With that in mind, we are focused on four key priorities this year that are intended to better leverage our brand assets and contribute to long-term success. These include... more efficiently taking advantage of growth in the digital economy, increasing acquisition, engagement, and lifetime value of loyal program members, diversifying retail locations to broaden consumer accessibility to our brand and reduce our reliance on traditional malls, and finally, monetizing the awareness and trust that consumers have for our brand through incremental profitable revenue streams such as outbound licensing, wholesale, and entertainment. As it relates to growing in the digital economy, we once again delivered double-digit e-commerce revenue growth, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth at those rates, a pace that has been consistent since the launch of our new web platform supported by Salesforce in fall of 2017. Even with these results, we believe there is significant opportunity for further growth in e-commerce when we benchmark our e-com as a percent of total revenue against other companies. While we started as an experiential retailer, we believe this consistent online advancement proves that our brand power extends beyond hands-on retail experience. As a result, in addition to the core family segment, we have become multigenerational and diversified our consumer base. We have seen teens and adults who prefer to shop online move to our enhanced site to purchase affinity and gift products. With nearly 50% of our e-commerce occurring historically in our fiscal fourth quarter, We've been laying the groundwork and building capabilities to take advantage of the ongoing macro trend of online shopping, leveraging our progress to date and adding enhanced site features, digital marketing programs, and improved search efforts to drive growth in this critical period. With over 85% of our site traffic on average originating from personal devices, we recently upgraded our mobile capabilities. We have seen reduced cart abandonment and higher conversion rates since the mobile enhancement were released. We've been refining both our paid and natural search with SEO-enhanced product descriptions, campaign optimization, and branded search terms leading to higher traffic and improved conversion with a roadmap of planned future developments. Closely tied to our digital priorities is the focus on integrating and expanding our Bonus Club loyalty program membership. As noted, we have over 8 million opted-in email addresses with over 7 million of those associated with a Bonus Club account that now includes a more robust contactable database in the UK that has been rebuilt in compliance with our recently enhanced GDPR regulation. We have advanced our capabilities to segment this database in personalized messages, which has helped to improve engagement levels with marketing communications as evidenced by higher average open and click-through rates, which benefits both in-store and online channels. We also continue to emphasize birthdays with Bonus Club members, recently adding an option that allows for the input of birthday data to receive additional benefits. We added this feature in conjunction with this year's Pay Your Age events, and we now have birthday data on approximately 2 million individuals associated with Birthday Club accounts. This includes the data we have from the Birthday Treat Bear that was introduced last year, which allows a child to pay their age for a collectible bear any time they visit a store during the month of their birthday. This bear has been our number one unit seller since it launched and birthday continues to be the top reason for visits to our stores all year long. By having this data, we can customize marketing messages and encourage store visits tied to an occasion in which families are more likely to seek out our unique interactive experience and thereby add incremental lifetime visits. Therefore, when turning to our next priority of broadening consumer accessibility at retail, Our data, ranging from guest satisfaction scores to generally increasingly robust dollars per transaction and conversion rates, indicates that our current challenges are not about who we are, but more about where we're located. And it's important to understand that we are well on our way to pivoting the retail business to venues that more align where today's families go for fun, entertainment, and to make memories. We have understood the challenging dynamics of traditional mall-based retail for a number of years, and we continue to deemphasize traditional mall locations. That is why we now, with purpose and planning, have optionality on nearly 70% of leases in the next three years, with additional leverage given due to Build-A-Bear's tendency to generate mall traffic because many of our visits are planned. With our focus on growing brick-and-mortar retail locations that allow us to diversify access to more consumers in places where they prefer to shop, we are on track to have approximately 23 lease spaces within Walmart stores by the end of the year. We believe that this relationship gives us the opportunity to expand the accessibility and convenience of our brand to a wider consumer base and reach incremental shoppers beyond those in traditional mall stores. Beyond the store locations, Walmart is currently the top distributor of Build-A-Bear outbound licensed products from plush toys to flippers. We are also pleased that this year Walmart will be the exclusive partner for our annual National Teddy Bear Day celebration on a national basis. That means that nearly all U.S. Walmart stores will offer the same collectible teddy bear that is featured in our stores with approximately 2,000 of those locations hosting local retail attainment events over the weekend of September 7th through the 9th. Separately, in line with positioning Build-A-Bear workshop stores where families go for fun and entertainment, Tourist locations, such as the successful shop within FAO Schwartz in New York City or the location near the London Eye, continue to be a focus. We have completed the expansion into 17 Great Wolf Lodge resorts, which operate on a wholesale basis like the model we have with Carnival Cruise Lines. By this holiday, we expect to have nearly 150 non-traditional mall retail locations, including tourist venues through a combination of owned, seasonal, and third-party wholesale agreements. As it relates to monetization of our brand assets, we believe we made progress to leverage the awareness and trust that consumers have for our brand through incremental profitable revenue streams. In the quarter, we had an increase in commercial revenue, and we executed multiple agreements tied to entertainment and content development, which is intended to be the foundation for a new branded production entity called Build-A-Bear Entertainment. With that in mind, we are pleased to announce that we recently signed an agreement for a multidimensional relationship with Sony Pictures Worldwide Acquisitions that includes the creation of movie content based on some of Build-A-Bear's best-selling proprietary intellectual properties. The first property in the pipeline is expected to be based on our popular music-oriented girl empowerment line, The Honey Girl. The Sony contract comes on the heels of our recently announced music partnership with Warner Music Group, to develop a Build-A-Bear record label under Arts Music, as well as a publishing deal with Warner Chapel Music, both of which are synergistic with the continued expansion of listenership on Build-A-Bear Radio. Other notable progress in this area includes the finalization of an agreement with RWS Entertainment Group, a full-service production company that creates award-winning custom entertainment, live events, and branded experiences worldwide, and we are currently in development for two holiday movies with the Hallmark Channel, the first of which is scheduled to air during the upcoming Christmas season. We believe that many of these best-in-class entertainment partners recognize the value of the high awareness, trust, and emotional connection that consumers have with our brand, but also the unique asset that comes with our retail locations that allow for direct interaction and additional storytelling when consumers who have engaged with the entertainment content visit our stores. We expect to start to realize some direct benefit from these new entertainment initiatives as revenue-generating channels in 2020. However, we believe that the ultimate opportunity within this business model lies in the full circle of leveraging the branded entertainment content to also elevate and monetize our retail channel and experience, which should then drive additional brand engagement across diversified channels. In regard to the recent second quarter, results included total revenue of $79.2 million, a decline of $4 million, with sales growth across geographies in the first two months of the quarter offset by a decline in the final month reflecting the prior year's benefit of a significant traffic and transaction growth driven by our inaugural Pay Your H.D. events and the subsequent voucher redemption. The retail sales growth in May and June was not enough to offset one of the biggest revenue weeks in the history of our company that occurred with the groundbreaking Pay Your Age promotion that was launched last July, even with a strong Lion King offering and a strategically planned repeat of the Pay Your Age event. Because of our continued belief that the unprecedented response in the original Pay Your Age event last year demonstrated the passion that consumers have for our brand and helped launch the aforementioned popular birthday treat there, We felt that the awareness and popularity of the promotion warranted the development of a plan that would allow us to repeat the offer in a format that, with appropriate constraints, would allow us to deliver a positive experience for participating consumers. With a number of adjustments, we held our second Pay Your Age event in June of this year with strong consumer response, enhanced loyalty member data collection, and overwhelmingly positive media coverage with nearly 2 billion impressions in the weeks leading into and immediately following this year's promotion. Last year's prolonged activity included high levels of post-promotion voucher redemptions, so we knew the comparisons would be challenging on a top-line basis. Therefore, we focused on preserving profitability in the quarter, which was reflected in the improvement from the prior year's results. Separately, as noted, we continued to advance in the digital economy, once again posting double-digit growth in e-commerce as well as an increase in commercial revenue that includes wholesale and outbound licensing fees. Our quarterly results also included retail gross margin expansion of 160 basis points and a reduction of $2.2 million in SG&A expenses, all of which contributed to a $1.8 million improvement in second quarter pre-tax loss of $700,000 despite the unfavorable currency exchange rates. From a balance sheet perspective, we ended the quarter with $15 million in cash and no debt, in contrast to a number of other more leveraged mall-based retailers. And for the first half of the year, Build-A-Bear Workshop is profitable, generating $1.7 million in pre-tax income, an improvement of $3.6 million from the first six months of fiscal 2018. It is important to note that these results were achieved despite lower total revenues that included the currency headwind just mentioned. As we look toward the balance of the current fiscal year, we expect to benefit from an enhanced celebration of National Teddy Bear Day in September, a favorable backdrop of family-centric films, including the highly anticipated release of Disney's Frozen 2, with merchandise launching in October, and later in the year, the next installment of the Star Wars series. Of note, the licensed product tied to the original Frozen film has generated the most sales of any license in our history. Our popular Merry Mission holiday collection will feature updated characters and kick off the Christmas season, which will offer an expanded gifting assortment, both in stores and online, helping to leverage the current e-commerce momentum. Separately, as another proof point of consumer interest of Build-A-Bear and other categories, we are also pleased that our new Build-A-Bear Workshop Stuffing Station Kit, developed by our outbound licensed partner Just Play, has been chosen to be on Walmart's high-profile, top-rated toy list for Holiday 2019. In conclusion, We remain energized about the long-term future of this brand and our business as we advance the monetization plans and new partnership opportunities that are now at hand to deliver stakeholder value. I will now turn the call over to Voyn to review additional financial details.

speaker
Voyne Todorovich
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Sharon, and good morning, everyone. As Sharon mentioned, the second quarter followed a particularly strong top-line performance from last year's driven by the success of our inaugural PayRage Day event. This year's second quarter results were also negatively impacted by unfavorable currency, driven by the volatility in the pound versus dollar during the period. Even with the headwinds faced, we improved profitability versus second quarter last year, driven by significant expansion in gross margin and disciplined expense management. With that in mind, we believe the fiscal second quarter of 2017 represents a more accurate comparison as it removes the anomaly created by 2018's Pay Your H.D. event. Using this comparison, this year's second quarter saw increased sales and improved profitability on a constant currency basis. Importantly, Build-A-Bear achieved solid pre-tax profitability during the first half of 2019 and we believe these results have us on track to achieve a profitable year. Some highlights of the second quarter include commercial revenue growth of over 200% to $3.2 million as we continued our progression to grow new revenue streams. Notably, we saw sales growth the first two months of the quarter across geographies, inclusive of this year's successful pay raise to events. This also included our seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit e-commerce growth. Now I will review the second quarter financials in more detail. Total revenues were $79.2 million, a decrease of 4.8% compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2018. Retail gross margin expanded to 44.1%, increasing by 160 basis points. mainly driven by merchandise margin expansion. We also saw leverage in occupancy expenses as we continued to control costs in a number of ways, including managing our real estate portfolio to lower average store occupancy expense and reducing our supply chain costs. SG&A decreased $2.2 million to $35.7 million as we continued to maintain disciplined expense management and remained focused on our controllable spend. Even with the revenue decline and unfavorable currency exchange rates, pre-tax results improved by $1.8 million from a pre-tax loss of $742,000 compared to the $2.5 million the prior year. Income tax expense was $482,000 compared to an income tax benefit of $745,000 in the prior year second quarter. This year's income tax expense was driven by taxable income generated in North America at a statutory rate. This expense was not able to be offset by losses in various foreign jurisdictions due to full tax valuation allowances. Importantly, we do not expect to pay any material cash taxes on a full year basis. As it relates to the balance sheet, again, we believe our second quarter results should be compared to second quarter fiscal 17, given the anomaly created by the Pay Your Age Day events that occurred late in last year's second quarter. In fact, the transactions from Pay Your Age Day events last year led to higher cash balances and significantly lower levels of inventory at quarter end. At quarter end this year, cash and cash equivalents were $15 million, which is $2.7 million increase compared to the ending cash position of the recast fiscal 2017 second quarter. Consolidated inventories were $62.1 million at quarter end, representing a $2.7 million increase compared to the end of the recast fiscal 2017 second quarter. Both of these were impacted by the timing of inventory to support the product launch associated with the Frozen 2 movie, combined with our decision to bring in inventory earlier in response to the anticipated increase in China tariffs. We expect to finish the year at a similar level of inventory compared to fiscal 2018 and expect to have cash and cash equivalents in the range of $20 to $25 million. At quarter end, there were no borrowings under our revolving credit facility. However, based on our financial results for the 2019 second quarter, we will not be in compliance with a minimum EBITDA covenant under our revolving credit facility. As noted, we ended the quarter with no borrowings, and we do not expect peak borrowing requirements to exceed $5 million for the remainder of the year to cover typical seasonal working capital needs. It is important to note we have reached an agreement in principle with our bank for a waiver of the covenant and an amendment of the revolving credit agreement terms. Capital expenditures total $2.5 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2019, and for the full year we currently expect capital expenditures in the range of $12 to $14 million. The lower spend compared to our previous guidance is primarily due to the timing of Walmart openings. We expect to end the year with 23 total Walmart locations with a number of additional locations planned for fiscal 2020. Before sharing our updated full year guidance, I would like to provide additional information concerning some current macro trends and their potential impact on our financial results. First, we are assuming no changes in the rate and December 15th effective date of the recently modified fourth tranche of tariffs. Should tariffs go into effect, we expect minimal impact this fiscal year, in part due to continued pull forward of inventory receipts, and we are working to mitigate the impact into the next fiscal year. Actions include SELIP, retail price increases, and shifting our sourcing structure. Separately, we expect the exchange rate of the British pound sterling relative to the US dollar to stay similar to the level at the end of the fiscal second quarter, which will have a negative impact on revenue, but minimal impact on profits for the remainder of the year. We are balancing these actions with an expectation that business could be impacted with ongoing changes in shopping patterns and shifts to consumer confidence that could impact discretionary spend. Also, as would be expected with a change in fiscal year that began in 2018, third quarter is anticipated to be our smallest and least profitable quarter. In addition, we have some tough comparisons in our retail stores in August caused by the tail end of the prior year's pay or H-day voucher redemptions. However, we have seen an improved trend that gives us more confidence that we will meet our profitability goals for the year. Our full year guidance includes a small improvement in third quarter results versus last year's $10 million pre-tax loss. Finally, for the full year, we are adjusting our guidance for revenue and reiterating the previously shared pre-tax income guidance on a GAAP basis. We currently expect total revenues to increase in the low single digit range versus our previous expectation for an increase in the mid to high single digit range. This reflects our first half performance and the potential impact of macro issues offset by growth in e-commerce, and the benefit of our diversification strategies to reach more consumers and add new revenue streams. On the full year basis, we continue to expect pre-tax income to be slightly positive, reflecting increased revenue in the second half of the year, expansion in gross profit margin. While we expect a reduction in SG&A for the full year, In the second half of the year, we expect SG&A to be higher than the prior year, driven by the expansion of Walmart locations and the more normalized incentive compensation expense versus fiscal 2018. And as noted, we expect to finish the year with a healthy balance sheet, including $20 to $25 million in cash and positive operating cash flow, less capital expenditures. This concludes our prepared remarks, and we will now turn the call back over to the operator for questions. Operator?

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. In the interest of time, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. You may rejoin the queue if you have additional questions. Our first question is coming from Eric Better of SCC Research. Please go ahead.

speaker
Eric Better
Analyst, SCC Research

Good morning. Good morning. Hi. Can you talk a little bit about the U.K. operations and what you're seeing there and how some of the changes you're implementing are affecting that group?

speaker
Voyne Todorovich
Chief Financial Officer

Sure. You know, we continue to see some challenging environment in UK that continues, even though over the last couple of months we have seen some improvements in trends as a result of some of the actions that we have taken earlier this year. As a reminder, last year, due to the impact of GDPR rules, we did have some challenges in opting in our consumers and talking to them Some of those challenges have been resolved earlier in the year, and we have been seeing some really nice lift from those, especially on our web business. The traffic in our stores, especially in the recent weeks, has been more favorable, but still there is a lot of uncertainty knowing what the geopolitical conditions in that country and some of the everyday changes that we are seeing and uncertainty around Brexit. So we are cautiously optimistic. As you know, some of those things are outside of our control, but we continue to be very aggressive in managing our real estate portfolio, managing expenses and things that are directly within our control.

speaker
Eric Better
Analyst, SCC Research

Great. And just a quick follow-up on Lion King. So that was a significant Push into the stores, it's six new furry friends, backdrops, decals. First of all, do you consider what you did there a success in helping driving traffic? And when you're looking at Frozen and Star Wars, are we going to see that kind of push into the stores and online to drive business there?

speaker
Sharon Price-John
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, in fact, Lion King was very robust for us. We consider it to be a very strong story. And we did have a multidimensional marketing campaign around it, and it was our number one story for the quarter. So we felt like that there were a lot of things that we did and levers that we pulled that were very successful to create excitement and drive traffic into the retail locations using Lion King. And, indeed, we do intend to use and repeat some of those efforts We also have a lot of experience with Frozen. As I noted, it is our historically best-selling licensed product of all time at Build-A-Bear. So that experience will bode well for us as we create interesting and traffic-driving opportunities for children to come in and get their new Frozen products. Star Wars as well, but we will focus most likely in a greater way on Frozen. We do see a lot of opportunity there and have a broad range of products. to fulfill what we expect to be a good demand.

speaker
Eric Better
Analyst, SCC Research

Great. Good luck for the holiday season. Thank you. Thanks, Eric.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Once again, that is Star 1 to register a question. Our next question is coming from Steph Wissink of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

speaker
Steph Wissink
Analyst, Jefferies

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Our first question, and Sharon, this one may be for you, but as you think about the evolution of the brand, and some of the commercial sales that you're doing, I think it mixes up royalty-based payments with wholesale sales. And I'm wondering if you've stepped back and looked at the total brand sales trued up to retail value, if that's giving you any sense of the total size and scope and the potential of the business, if we were to look at it from the consumer's lens versus from the way that you report.

speaker
Sharon Price-John
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Thank you, Stephanie. Appreciate the question. We definitely do look at grossed-up approach to try to value the brand at retail so that everything's equal. You're right that a lot of these things that we're doing, and we mention it all the time, that many of these license opportunities are margined accretive to us because basically we're getting royalty dollars, which are very rich with little overhead associated with them. We have done some rough numbers on that, 4 to 450, I think is the point if you'd like to add some color to that. But that's also inclusive of the grossing up of our franchise business. Is that correct?

speaker
Voyne Todorovich
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, if you think from the enterprise, probably someplace between 400, 450 million. As you know, a lot of these revenues are coming in a variety of different streams. We do have, as Sharon talked about, some of the royalty income we are getting in our commercial channel through outbound licensing. We are getting franchise income from our international stores, as well as we have these experiences that we refer to as third-party wholesale with Cardinal Cruise Lines and Grateful Flodges that also would be grossed up on a retail level as we sell to them on a wholesale basis. So when you add up some of those things, you are in that range, 400 to 450 million, depending on the exchange rates and some of the things that we have, and seasonality of those businesses.

speaker
Sharon Price-John
Chief Executive Officer

I think you're right, though, to question it because sometimes those are undervalued inside of the comparison set of when you're looking at the majority of our sales being at retail value and it's hard sometimes to sort of lose the plot on that these dollars are valued at a different level in some way.

speaker
Steph Wissink
Analyst, Jefferies

That's right. I think that's very helpful to kind of know what the total scope is as well. And then the second question is just to unpack the sales guidance. So a couple of angles I'd appreciate you taking. The first is you've been in a net closure cycle. So to see sales in total dollars be down is not necessarily a huge surprise. But I'm wondering if you can just give us a scope of what factor the closures or the net retail footage decline has had as an impact on sales versus the underlying performance of the business. And then how that factored into the way that you're guiding and the takedown from mid to high single to kind of a low single-digit range, which seems like a more extreme revision. So if it's more than just the footage changes, if it's something in addition, if you could just provide some additional context, that would be helpful. Thank you.

speaker
Voyne Todorovich
Chief Financial Officer

Sure, so I can start with some of that stuff. So, yes, we did lower our full-year revenue guidance. There are a few things that go in there, like first, you know, as we talked about, we did have some misses in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter, as we did have some of these challenging comparisons with pay raise day events. Now, we did have, as you talked about, we did close six stores this year in the second quarter. And the timing of Walmart stores has shifted a little bit, impacting our seasonality and timing between quarters. As we said on one of our previous calls, we expect over the next 18 months or so, next two years, to close up to 30 stores. We are in constant negotiations with our landlord community. And, you know, as we have a lot of optionality with our leases, we are going to be taking advantage of those. And, you know, if we are not getting the terms and achieving profitability that's expected for us, we may be walking from some of those locations, and that could impact that top line. In addition, as we think about the second half of the year, there are more positive things coming up, as we believe Frozen should be our biggest license of the year, and that should be floor set, I think, early October for us. We also are going to be getting a benefit from opening of additional 17 stores, Walmart locations. Our initial guidance included a few more stores, but some of those shifted the timing into the beginning of next year. We expect still to have double-digit increase in our e-com business as we continue as well to drive our non-retail revenue streams in form of our commercial revenue. So we feel good about some of those things. Another piece that's worth noting, Stephanie, is the exchange rate risk in the U.K. With the pound devaluation, and especially at the current rates, it's going to be at least 1%, probably a little bit more, of sales decline on a full-year basis due to the weakening of the pound.

speaker
Steph Wissink
Analyst, Jefferies

That's really helpful. Thank you, Bojan.

speaker
Sharon Price-John
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, Stephanie, I also think it's important to understand that the retail changes that we're making when you're talking on a more macro level are really fundamental when you start to think about it. We're shifting not only away from and managing down the traditional mall-based business as a percentage of our total retail offering, and in that percentage of total retail offering, it's inclusive of, when we think about it in its broadest terms, with the third-party retail and seasonal shops and shop-and-shops with a variety of different models. But at the end of the day, what we believe we're going to end up with is something that's very different from what was kind of a cookie-cutter 2,500, 3,000-square-foot store that rolls out in what would have been considered traditional or is now considered traditional mall retail to something that has a decrease in square footage per store, yet the number of stores would increase for us to have a broader accessibility to consumers to be able to experience Build-A-Bear that we believe will buoy these other revenue streams. So you end up with our goal of having more yet smaller, more profitable locations so your average store volume goes down. but your total store count goes up. Does that make sense?

speaker
Steph Wissink
Analyst, Jefferies

It does, yes. I think looking at it on a footage basis versus a unit basis seems to be a shift that we need to make in the modeling, if you agree with that.

speaker
Sharon Price-John
Chief Executive Officer

We have looked at that, and Dwayne can add some more color. Again, there is that challenge of what you brought up in the first question of how do you normalize on the third-party retail versus our owned and operated retail. But there are ways to do that, I think, that will help people understand this fundamental shift that we're making.

speaker
Voyne Todorovich
Chief Financial Officer

And also with some of the things that have been done over the last couple of years and diversification of our real estate formats, You know, our concourse shops are about 200 square feet. Our Walmart locations are about 1,000 or in that vicinity. Our traditional stores are 2,000 to 2,500. So the mix of real estate formats definitely impacts that square foot calculation. And it is challenging, you know, for you guys to model, but we can try to work to provide some additional color so that people can have better understanding on some of those things and help you and model the revenue a little bit better.

speaker
Steph Wissink
Analyst, Jefferies

Boing, could I throw one more in just related to the tariff situation? I know you quantified or provided the qualification that you're shifting some of your production outside of China, but can you just remind us what percentage of your U.S.-bound goods come from China today and what your goal would be?

speaker
Voyne Todorovich
Chief Financial Officer

So today we probably have over 90% of our goods are coming from China. We are going to be working to diversify and shift our sourcing base, and maybe over the next 12 to 18 months to have maybe one-third or roughly so of production coming from outside of China. We'll continue to look and review that number as we go forward and understand what kind of challenges and changes are going to take place with the new tariff structure.

speaker
Sharon Price-John
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, it's important to note, though, for the vast majority of that shift, we are working with long-term partners in existing production facilities and companies.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any additional or closing comments.

speaker
Sharon Price-John
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you for joining us today and we look forward to updating you on our business on the third quarter call.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time. Thank you and have a wonderful day.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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