2/21/2025

speaker
Josh
Conference Facilitator

Good morning. My name is Josh and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Boise Cascades, fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer period. It is now my pleasure to turn it to introduce you to Chris Forre, vice president, finance and investor relations, Boise Cascade. Mr. Forre, you may begin your conference.

speaker
Chris Forre
Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations

Thank you, Josh. And good morning, everyone. I'd like to welcome you to Boise Cascades, fourth quarter, 2024 earnings call and business update. Joining me on today's call are Nate Jorgensen, our CEO, Kelly Hibbs, our CFO and treasurer, Troy Little, head of our wood products operations, and Jeff Strum, our recently announced COO and former head of our building materials distribution operations. Turning to slide two, this call will contain forward looking statements. Please review the warning statements in our press release on the presentation slides and in our filings with the SEC regarding the risks associated with these forward looking statements. Also, please note that the appendix includes reconciliation from our gap net income to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA and segment income to segment EBITDA. I will now turn the call over to Nate.

speaker
Nate Jorgensen
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for earnings call today on slide number three. I'll start by highlighting some of our accomplishments as I reflect on our 2024 results. We reported full year net income of 376.4 million or $9.57 per diluted share. We grew our distribution business through both our organic and acquisition initiatives, made progress on significant capital investments to support our EWP growth strategy and provided meaningful capital returns to our shareholders. I'm grateful to our associates that they've shown commitment to our values and steadfast support for our customers, suppliers and each other. Let me now turn to the fourth quarter results. Total U.S. housing starts and single family housing starts to increase 6% and 4% respectively compared to the prior year quarter. Our consolidated fourth quarter sales of 1.6 billion were down 5% from fourth quarter 2023. Our net income was 68.9 million or $1.78 per share compared to net income of 97.5 million or $2.44 per share in the year ago quarter. Our year ago quarter earnings per share were negatively impacted by approximately 18 cents per share from accelerated depreciation related to the Chapman, Alabama lumber facility closure and transaction expenses for the Roscoe acquisition. Kelly will now walk through our segment financial results, get some early insights on first quarter and then provide an update on our capital allocation in more detail after which I'll provide our outlook before we take your questions.

speaker
Kelly Hibbs
Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Kelly. Thank you, Nate. Wood product sales in the fourth quarter, including sales for our distribution segment were 419.7 million, down 7% compared to fourth quarter 2023. Wood product segment EBITDA was 56.6 million compared to EBITDA of 92.7 million reported in the year ago quarter. The decrease in segment EBITDA was due primarily to lower EWP and plywood sales prices. In BMD, our sales in the quarter were 1.4 billion, down 4% from fourth quarter 2023. BMD reported segment EBITDA 84.5 million in the fourth quarter compared to segment EBITDA 80.6 million in the prior year quarter. Despite the sales decline, a 60 basis point increase in gross margin percentage positioned BMD to deliver a comparable year over year gross margin dollars. In addition, BMD's general administrative expenses decreased by 3.6 million, due primarily to acquisition related expenses in the prior year quarter for the acquisition of BROSCO. Turning to slide five, on a year over year basis, fourth quarter volumes for LVL increased an impressive 11% and IJOYS volumes were down 2%, both better than the 4% year over year decline in single family starts, which we believe is testament to the strength of our tightly aligned manufacturing and nationwide distribution capabilities. As expected, seasonal declines in construction activity drove lower volumes on a sequential basis, with LVL and IJOYS volumes down 8% and 10% respectively. But again, for this comparative period, our volume changes were better than underlying activity in single family starts would imply. At current demand levels, competition for shares prevalent in the marketplace today and our sequential LVL pricing for LVL and IJOYS were down 2% and 1% respectively. Turning to slide six, our fourth quarter plywood sales volume was 371 million feet compared to 363 million feet in fourth quarter 2023. The 350 per thousand average plywood net sales price in the fourth quarter was down 7% on a year over year basis. However, plywood net sales prices were up 5% sequentially. We experienced higher plywood pricing through the first half of the fourth quarter before expected seasonal decline set in, with December average price realizations of approximately 340 per thousand. Moving to slide seven and eight, BMD's year over year fourth quarter sales decline of 4% was driven by a 2% decrease in both sales price and volume. By product line, commodity sales decreased 4%, general line product sales increased 1% and sales of EWP decreased 11%. As I alluded to earlier, BMD's fourth quarter gross margin percentage was .8% up 60 basis points year over year. In particular, our commodity inventory position coupled with strengthening commodity markets during the first half of the fourth quarter provided tailwinds for our commodity margins. BMD's EBITDA margin was .9% for the quarter, up from the .4% reported in the year ago and up 30 basis points sequentially. Very strong results in a seasonally slower quarter. I'm now on slide nine. Weather has made for a difficult start to the quarter as we have had a couple days of unplanned downtime across several of our manufacturing and distribution locations. As we look forward to our expectations for the first quarter, EWP volumes are expected to increase modestly from fourth quarter levels and EWP pricing is expected to reflect low single digit sequential declines. In plywood, the significant modernization projects at our Oakdale facility are progressing well. As planned, that facility will be down for the entirety of the first quarter and is expected to operate near 50% of capacity in the second quarter. As a result, our plywood volumes and cost absorption will be negatively impacted in the near term. For the first quarter, we expect plywood volumes to decline mid to high single digit sequentially and that we will incur negative cost impacts of approximately not 7 million due to the Oakdale downtime. On plywood pricing, quarter to date realizations are approximately 3% below fourth quarter averages. With regards to B&B sales, seasonal impacts are evident with our quarter to date daily sales pace about 8% below our fourth quarter daily sales averages. We'd expect activity to strengthen as we move towards the spring building season. Now on slide 10, we had capital expenditures of 230 million in 2024 with 122 million of spending in wood products and 108 million of spending in B&B. Looking forward to 2025, we expect our capital spending to be between 220 million and 240 million. This range includes additional spending on our multi-year investments in support of EWP production capabilities, including adding I-Joyce production at our Thorsby, Alabama EWP facility and the significant modernization projects that are Oakdale, Louisiana, veneer and plywood mill. In B&B, we're making great progress on our Greenfield distribution center in Hondo, Texas. Activity at the Walterboro, South Carolina Greenfield has been slow, but we expect to gain momentum there in the back half of 2025. Speaking to shareholder returns in 2024, we paid 229 million in regular and special dividends, which was comprised of 82 cents per share in regular quarterly dividends and a $5 per share special dividend. Our board of directors also recently approved 21 cents per share quarterly dividend on our common stock. Shareholders of record as of February 24th will receive payment of this dividend on March 19th. For the 13 months ended January 2025, we have repurchased approximately 1.75 million shares or .5% of our outstanding shares for approximately 225 million. Today, we have about 1.6 million shares available for repurchase under our share repurchase program. As our actions demonstrate, we continue to strive for a balanced approach to capital allocation that includes ongoing investments in our existing asset base, organic growth projects, and returns to our shareholders. Our balance sheet also gives us the flexibility to pursue M&A if opportunities surface that align with our strategy. I will now turn it back over to Nate to share our business outlook and closing remarks.

speaker
Nate Jorgensen
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Kelly. I'm on slide number 11. Current industry forecast for total U.S. starts are around 1.35 million for 2025, essentially flat with actual housing starts in 2024 as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Single-family housing starts in 2024 outpace 2023 levels by 7% and are expected to again be around 1 million, the 1 million level despite the affordability challenges consumers are facing in the current rate environment. Multi-family starts decline sharply in 2024, are expected to continue to face headwinds in 2025 due prohibitive capital costs for developers combined with elevated levels of multi-family unit completions in both 2023 and 2024. For home improvement spending, we expect 2025 to reflect modest growth as the age of U.S. housing stock, elevated levels of homeowner equity, and some recent improvement in existing home sales will provide a favorable backdrop for repairing remodeled spending. While uncertainties around the macroeconomy and policy decisions from the new administration make it challenging to predict the near-term demand environment, our constructive view on the medium and longer-term housing fundamentals remains, which affords us the ability to maintain a clear focus on our strategy and the execution of our growth initiatives. Lastly, I would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Jeff Strom and Joe Barney on their recently announced promotions. Both are seasoned and accomplished leaders and look forward to their continued contributions in their new roles. These changes were part of our intentional strategic succession planning process as we position the company for continued service and support to our shareholders, our stakeholders in the future. Thank you for joining us on our call today and your continued interest and support in the Boise Cascade. We welcome any questions at this time. Josh, would you please open the phone lines?

speaker
Josh
Conference Facilitator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1-1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1-1 again. One moment for questions. Our first question comes from Kurt Yanger with DA Davidson. You may proceed.

speaker
Kurt Yanger
Analyst at DA Davidson

Great. Thanks and good morning, everyone. Good morning, Kurt. I just wanted to start off on tariffs. And, you know, we have pretty robust data on Lumber and OSB and how important Canadian supply is there. But EWP is kind of a murkier picture. I guess, first off, could you maybe frame, you know, Canadian supply relative to the U.S. consumption, you know, maybe where you run into some of those call it secondary suppliers in the market and how you're thinking about opportunities that could arise for Boise if we were to see some sort of tariff implementation?

speaker
Nate Jorgensen
Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Kurt, it's Nate. Let me start that and Kelly and others can jump in. Yeah, I think in terms of the, you know, kind of the tariff question, obviously there's more unknowns than knowns relative to that. To your point, there's clarity in terms of how much volume is moving across, I think, largely from an industry perspective and for Boise Cascade from Canada into the U.S. And some of that is obviously around some of our commodities. But as you think about the, you know, some of the other items that we bring across the border, whether it's web stock or other items, it's, I think, in terms of the impact, we've done a lot of modeling and a lot of work, Kurt, just to make sure we understand some of the actions and decisions we may need to take as a result of tariffs. But there's nothing that we've kind of concluded at this date in terms of, you know, kind of anything immediate that we'll be doing in the marketplace. At this point, the other thing that we're looking at is the demand environment in terms of the kind of the ripple effect on affordability, as we've talked about, is a potential challenge with tariffs. So as we think about, you know, kind of the consequences of what could take place, again, not just on the lumber items, but other items as well, you know, that's going to be something that we're watching carefully and closely. But we've done a lot of work just to make sure we're prepared to move forward should that tariff arrive. And again, there's a lot of discussion and debate on when and if that's possible. So maybe with that, Kelly, anything you would add just in terms of how we're thinking about that and just maybe a backdrop on that?

speaker
Kelly Hibbs
Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah, sure, Nate. So, yeah, good to hear you, Kurt. So, yeah, for us, you kind of think about it in our two segments. As you well know, our manufacturing is substantially based in the U.S. And to Nate's point, we would have some cost pressure from OSB Webstock that we do get from Canada. But we are very well positioned there. And so feel good about our ability to rate again, given that to Nate's point, there's a lot more unknowns than there are knowns in that space. And then in B&D, you know, as we, if there are tariffs, and we do import a lot of commodity products from Canada, for example, you know, if there were higher costs there, our intent would be to push those through and maintain, you know, our normal margin percentage. So then that's kind of we play the market every day, if you will. And so that would be our expectation. The broader concern is probably if it gets, if the tariffs end up, to Nate's point, causing further affordability challenges, do we have demand destruction? And that would be a bigger, broader concern.

speaker
Nate Jorgensen
Chief Executive Officer

Maybe just to kind of close out on that, Kurt, I think the, what do you think about the, you know, some of the policy uncertainty that's out there, and even kind of the weather that Kelly described, it's just, you know, kind of the risk reward, there's a lot of hesitancy in the marketplace. And so I think, you know, we're seeing and experiencing that, I think for us, the good news is that, you know, we're seeing continued strength out of warehouse, as people kind of mitigate and manage that risk reward. So, you know, our warehouse business remains steady, but you can certainly hear, you know, the influence of that policy risk and the conversations across the industry. Right.

speaker
Kurt Yanger
Analyst at DA Davidson

Okay. No, that's, that's great color. I appreciate it. And then moving on to EWP pricing, you know, it's been kind of this slide over the last two years and, you know, maybe some of that's wringing out some excess margin. And now it seems like more supply and demand finding a balance. You talked about some of the competitive dynamics in terms of securing share, I guess, as we look out to 2025, thinking about maybe a flattish kind of housing starts environment, do you feel like the market is pretty close to finding that equilibrium? Or are there any other big variables on the supply side that you're watching more closely?

speaker
Kelly Hibbs
Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah, Kurt, this is Kelly again, I don't think on the on the supply side, I don't know that there's a lot of variables there. I mean, there's, you know, no new capacity coming online here in the near term. But I do think if we're in a 1.35 total or a 1.0 single family environment, I think there will continue to be competition for share. And so we've continued to see that in some modest price erosion. And if the environment stays like that, we'd expect to see some erosion. And then there could be, you know, some seasonally stronger periods where maybe it maybe it's a little less competitive at times. But I there's no reason for us to believe we won't continue to see some level of erosion if demand kind of stays where it is.

speaker
Nate Jorgensen
Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Kurt, maybe the other thing I would just add is when you think about EWP relative to other options, I think it still represents the right answer for the builder. In terms of, you know, the cycle time at the job site, you know, the simplicity and, you know, relative to other options and materials that might be available. So as we look at the backdrop of EWP overall, I think, again, it's favorable in terms of what the builder is looking at and needing to get done and at the job site. And so we feel good about, you know, that being a continuing to be a kind of a tailwind for EWP moving forward.

speaker
Kurt Yanger
Analyst at DA Davidson

Got it. And if I could just sneak one more in, up on that. I mean, you know, historically, I don't think you guys have ever viewed pricing on lumber as a huge driver of substitution between solid, solid, I joist or open web floor trust is. But if we were to see kind of more upward pressure there on the commodity pricing, is that something on the margin that you think could be a potential positive or is there not really any historical evidence to support that?

speaker
Nate Jorgensen
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, generally, most of the builders generally stay kind of pretty true to the product, whether it's dimensional lumber, to your point, open web floor trust is or EWP. So I think there's a fair bit of consistency there. But to your point, if they're at the margin, you know, that probably, you know, if there's higher pressure on pricing on dimensional lumber, as an example, you know, that'll probably create discussion and some opportunities for potential conversions. So, but I think the builder, you know, they'll continue to look at the affordability side of things. That's certainly first and foremost on their mind. And part of that affordability is not just materials, but also, you know, speed on the job site and simplicity at the job site as well.

speaker
Kurt Yanger
Analyst at DA Davidson

Right. Okay. Awesome. Appreciate all the color, guys. Thank you. Thanks, Chris.

speaker
Josh
Conference Facilitator

Thank you. And as a reminder to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. Our next question comes from Susan McClary with Goldman Sachs. He may proceed.

speaker
Susan McClary
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Thank you. Good morning,

speaker
Nate Jorgensen
Chief Executive Officer

everyone. Hey, where's you?

speaker
Susan McClary
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Good morning. And congrats to Jeff. Good. Thank you. I appreciate that. Yeah. I want to start by talking a bit about the operating environment. You know, you mentioned the impact to whether that'll come through in the first quarter. But can you also talk a bit about how we should think of the weather, the macro environment and what you're hearing as the builders are starting to get into the early parts of the selling season?

speaker
Nate Jorgensen
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, thanks, Sue. It's Nate. I think, you know, the builders, you know, there's, there's, you know, the affordability remains, you know, probably first and foremost in the conversation. And so I think when you look at, you know, home prices, when you look at cost of money, that remains front and center. And they've been some of the builders, as you know, been active in terms of, of buying down rates. So I think that's been an important part of what we experienced as we close 2024. And I think what, you know, the builders are describing in terms of 2025. I think in terms of the, you know, kind of the medium to longer term, I think the there's still a lot of optimism and, you know, belief that we still are under the current, you know, the current, you know, the current, you know, the current, the current very important part of what we've heard here over the past couple of weeks. And so I think that narrative remains more, again, probably from the medium to longer term. In the short term, again, I think there's some complexity and unknowns. And part of that is certainly around, you know, the economy and what could be happening there, including things like tariffs that could drive that. But this that that kind of maybe hesitancy is maybe more of the theme that we've heard here over the past couple of weeks. So I don't think that's for me, there's a lot of anxiety, it's simply people are probably a little bit more measured, at least in the short term, until they have a better view of what the what the environment is. So I think the home builders remain, I think, still, you know, optimistic about, you know, certainly the future. And I think in the near term, they're going to kind of manage it on a day by day basis to make sure that they're making the right choices and decisions, you know, for each of their stakeholders, including their shareholders.

speaker
Susan McClary
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Yeah, okay, that's helpful color. And then, you know, thinking about the environment and, and the fact that maybe there's some increasing competition on commodity EWP products, can you talk about the potential benefits and the more resilient nature of the general line part of the business and how that could perhaps be a relative offset in this kind of situation?

speaker
Jeff Strum
Chief Operating Officer

It says, Jeff, I, the general line, it continues to hold up very well. That being said, it is competitive out there. And as things slow down, and people are looking for market share, you know, it does get incredibly competitive. And, you know, we're having to keep our eye on that and react where we need to.

speaker
Susan McClary
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay, that's helpful. And then I just want to sneak one more in, which is, you know, it was nice to see the buybacks that came through in 2024. As you do think about your approach to capital allocation for this year, can you talk a bit about shareholder returns and how you're thinking about buybacks versus perhaps the special dividend? Just any color there?

speaker
Kelly Hibbs
Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah, sure, Sue. So let me, I guess, start maybe a little more broadly, and then we can work our way to your specific question. So capital allocation, you know, as you've seen in the materials, you know, we have a, you know, the second year of a, for us, a pretty heavy capital spending program. So that is going to be the main focus here is to make sure we execute on our capital spending objectives. Go get M&A if we find some, something that makes sense. Specific to shareholder returns, we're going, you know, I expect us to opportunistically stay in the market in buying shares on a more consistent basis. And then, like you've seen recently, and then special dividend, you know, that will be a conversation with the board, you know, but I'd anticipate that'd be more later in the year, more like a third quarter event if we, if the board chooses to do that. And again, that could be also dependent upon, you know, what might we find in the M&A space and, and, or do we seek out and find some additional organic growth opportunities?

speaker
Susan McClary
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay, well, I got an answer from all three of you, which I appreciate. So good luck to everyone. We'll talk soon.

speaker
Josh
Conference Facilitator

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Roxland with Truest Securities. You may proceed.

speaker
Mike Roxland
Analyst at Truest Securities

Yeah, thanks very much for taking my questions and congrats on all the progress.

speaker
Nate Jorgensen
Chief Executive Officer

Morning. Morning, Mike.

speaker
Mike Roxland
Analyst at Truest Securities

Morning. Yeah, Kelly, as you noted, B&D margin was strong in four years, certainly better than we expected. The spikes themselves pace deterioration during the quarter. Mix is also a little more unfavorable versus three Q. So can you help us understand then, you know, how you generated a higher sequential margin, especially as margins are seasonally lower sequentially? Was any of that due to need to point on increasing warehouse sales, just any color you can provide about the around the margin and how you were able to achieve the type of margin in four Q?

speaker
Kelly Hibbs
Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah, there's several components in there and you hit on several of them, like the, one is warehouse and again, the uncertainty in the marketplace and how that increases reliance from our customers on our inventory position. So that helped. And I would also say commodities had a decent little run, kind of the first part, the first half of the fourth quarter. And that really gave us some tailwinds that we were able to capture in the fourth quarter.

speaker
Mike Roxland
Analyst at Truest Securities

Got it. So when you think about, you know, take the transition from four Q to one Q in terms of EBITDA margin, you have to think about it because obviously you're going to a sales pace that has deteriorated further in one Q relative to four Q. Obviously you decided to go into weather, there's uncertainty, I get all that, but you know, you're able to maintain that level in four Q or Q. Should we see some type of erosion because of the sales pace deterioration relative to four Q?

speaker
Kelly Hibbs
Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah, we will see erosion from fourth quarter for sure, Mike. I mean, given the 8% sales pace decline that we've seen so far in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter, and that coupled with, you know, no tailwinds in terms of across any product lines in terms of price appreciation, yeah, we will not report that same level of EBITDA margin here in the first quarter.

speaker
Mike Roxland
Analyst at Truest Securities

Got it. And then one last one from me. Can you help us understand what drove the growth in LVL? Obviously very strong growth in four Q up 11%. I think single family started down 4% to 5%. Why, did you gain share against your peers? Is that something that you expect to continue? Just help us frame what happened and how we should think about the go forward.

speaker
Kelly Hibbs
Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah, that's a great segue for me to give a great shout out to the combined efforts of the Wood products and B&D sales teams. Very active this year in, you know, getting out and selling our value proposition and that's really showing up in our volumes. And like I alluded to in my comments, volumes better than what underlying single family starts would imply. And so really good execution and again that linkage between our manufacturing distribution showed up really well.

speaker
Nate Jorgensen
Chief Executive Officer

The other thing for me, Mike, it's Nate, is if you think about LVL and, you know, kind of the applications for that in terms of beams and headers, it's really, it's a steady and probably, growing application opportunity. So we've talked in times about competitiveness on EWP specifically with IJOYS and open web floor trusses and dimensional lumber. The complexity of designs and such continues to support beam and header use. And so I think in terms of the backdrop on the opportunity and how that shows up for that product category specifically, we feel good about what that represents and obviously that's consistent with how we thought about continuing to grow that part of our business from a production standpoint. So, yeah, thanks for, you know, kind of calling that out and again we feel good about where we finished and really what's in front of us. It's somewhat independent of the housing market.

speaker
Mike Roxland
Analyst at Truest Securities

Got it. Great, great caller. Appreciate it and wishing you the best of luck this year.

speaker
Josh
Conference Facilitator

Thanks, Mike.

speaker
Josh
Conference Facilitator

Our next question comes from George Stapos with Bank of America Securities. You may proceed.

speaker
George Stapos
Analyst at Bank of America Securities

Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details and congrats to Jeff and Joe. I guess my first question, maybe I'll segue off of the discussion we were just having with Mike. So given the complexity of homes and the way that this is supporting greater demand for beam and header use, on the other hand, you talk about inflation affordability, you know, what can you talk to about whether, you know, size of home, conservation materials, how that might be impacting, if at all, demand for EWP as you're seeing it right now. Relatedly, you know, guys, I know it's hard to parse this precisely, right, but are you seeing more of the price erosion coming from competition against other EWP products in the market or is it coming from dimensional, is it coming from trust? How should we think about that?

speaker
Kelly Hibbs
Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah, so I'll start, George. So to answer your second question first, the price erosion is related to competition for light EWP products. It's not from competing products like Dimension Lumber, as you referenced, it's EWP. And then you're right, in terms of the, gee, how does the demand environment or how does the size of homes impact demand? Yes, it will. If you have smaller homes, that will create less footage used in a home. Not necessarily in terms of the applications or products that homeowners, that builders will use, but if the footprint is smaller, the usage will be smaller.

speaker
Nate Jorgensen
Chief Executive Officer

Hey, George, maybe just to Kelly, good morning. When you think about, you know, the square footage, I think that's to me, probably focuses more on the IJOYS, you know, kind of statement in terms of that, you know, kind of consumption. And certainly beams and headers are part of that and wall framing. But again, when you look at the designs today, even though footprints are getting a little bit smaller, the complexity continues to grow in terms of the open spaces and the expectations around that. So I think that backdrop and theme remains, and that's really supportive of, you know, the beams and our LDL growth as a result. So the other piece of it, as you know, is housing starts are really, the consumption of EWP is really dependent on the as you think about where that housing start resides, you know, that has influence in terms of what's expected as well. So but overall, you know, I think the beam and header market is is generally has a little more stability around it, in part based upon, you know, some of the construction techniques that remain out there.

speaker
George Stapos
Analyst at Bank of America Securities

So Nate, I mean, just to summarize it, and look, we're never going to hold you to this, we just want to understand what you're saying in terms of the market, even with some of the headwinds, you know, on square footage, and like your view holding everything else constant dangerous phrase there, is that you should see incrementally better demand for EWP because of those points on complexity of design, and related factors. Would that be fair?

speaker
Nate Jorgensen
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I would say more on the kind of the beam and header side of things, George, as opposed to the floor system. So I would say, you know, pretty kind of separated, separate those, you know, two product categories. And, but again, I always do have a role in terms of again, creating that simplicity and that speed of the job site. And that's that's important to the builder always has been and certainly is today. So I think that's a, you know, that's going to be favorable relative to other options that are out there.

speaker
George Stapos
Analyst at Bank of America Securities

Thanks, Nate. Yeah, Kelly, you called out Oakdale, and I think it's kind of a $7 million impact in the quarter coming up. Is there any residual effect that we should build into the model? And relatedly, you and we appreciate it. You qualitatively called out, hey, it's a little bit tougher start to the one queue from whether than would normally be the case for whether in the one queue, is there any sort of number you would sort of give us? Hey, this has been the effect above and beyond a normal one queue, anything that we could do to size our models? And really, my last question, and again, appreciate all the color. You know, kind of where's your inventory position right now? And BMD relative to where you'd like it to be?

speaker
Kelly Hibbs
Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah, sure, George. So yeah, I guess kind of on the key one indicators, I would point you towards the table there in terms of, you know, the volume and price expectations for wood products. And then for BMD, yeah, the sales pace is really going to matter. That's very important. And that will very much have an impact on how we close out the quarter. And we've had multiple locations with multiple down days, even several locations this week were down because of some very tough weather. So yeah, it's created some challenges for us. And then Oakdale, that, you know, that's, we've been working that project for some time now. So as expected, that facility is down, will be down for the entirety of this quarter, as we do that significant modernization project that we're excited to do. And again, that's a big important veneer supplier to Alexandria, Louisiana, UWP mill. And so yeah, we will, you know, lose some volume from that. And certainly, that will have give us some negative sequential cost impacts. But again, it was part of the plan. And we're on schedule. And then we'll see probably some of that continue into the second quarter, because, you know, we'll be running at 50% ish in the second quarter as we work towards completion of those projects by the end of the second quarter. And then I think inventory position, I'll send that one over to Mr. Stroum.

speaker
Jeff Strum
Chief Operating Officer

Hey, George, Jeff, on our inventory position, overall, you know, I feel pretty good. Right now, with all the uncertainty, lack of clarity out there, you know, people are pulling more and more material out of a warehouse and talking to our dealers, I've, you know, years I've been doing this, I've never heard so much conversation from that level about networking capital days on hand. So there is a real reliance. And so we're sitting there ready to serve every single day.

speaker
George Stapos
Analyst at Bank of America Securities

Okay, no doubt, no doubt. Thank you, guys. I'll turn it over. And good luck in the quarter.

speaker
Josh
Conference Facilitator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Keetan Mamtoro with BMO Capital Markets. You may proceed.

speaker
Keetan Mamtoro
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Maybe to start with on the on the BNB side, you know, you have the slide that you look at from the last five years, EBITDA margin, you know, clearly the operating environment, you know, in 24, and certainly looks like the normalized levels, would you say given what you guys have done over the last few years, in terms of the product mix, that you can say that, you know, sort of cross level margins in BMD are sort of, you know, a little bit above 5%. Is that, you know, would that be sort of a fair characterization?

speaker
Kelly Hibbs
Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah, so our our expectation and our strategy with the investments we've made with the product mix shifts that we've made is that, you know, BMD's margin is, you know, through a cycle is in the mid fives. And we've demonstrated that. And then, you know, and now we could have periods like for example, here in the first quarter with the challenges on the top line, you know, we may not hit 5% here in the first quarter, because of this pretty significant erosion here in the sales pace in the first quarter. But yes, over time, absolutely, the strategy is we're mid fives.

speaker
Keetan Mamtoro
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Understood, got it. And then, you know, curious, as you look at your M&A pipeline, is that something that would be, you know, sort of an area of interest as, you know, seller expectations moderate, either on the distribution side or on the product side? And then just related to that, are there any other product categories within distribution that you think would make sense for you guys?

speaker
Kelly Hibbs
Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yeah, so on the on the M&A front, Keaton, the fair answer is yes, we would have interest if it aligns with our strategy. And I would say there's probably more more potential opportunity on the distribution side than there would be on the wood product side. And then as it relates to new product categories, and I think you were kind of focused towards towards the BMD side, I think, you know, we're, as we've talked before, we're very fortunate to be aligned with a lot of really world class suppliers. And, and oftentimes, you know, they're continuing to add products to their SKU set. And we get some natural growth, organic growth opportunity from

speaker
Nate Jorgensen
Chief Executive Officer

from there. Hey, Keaton, it's Nate, maybe just to add to Kelly's comments is, you know, I think as we new opportunities, we always try to start the conversation with the customer and market as to Okay, what do they need? What are they experiencing? Where are there opportunities where Boise Cascade can step in? And we try to have the same conversation with the suppliers as Kelly described, and in many cases, they're bringing out new products, new SKUs, which is, which is exciting. So I think it's a deliberate conversation we always look to have. And where customers, you know, ask us to step into a different opportunity, it needs to kind of fit with our strategy and our competencies. But that's been an important part of our growth story. And I think we'll continue as we move forward.

speaker
Keetan Mamtoro
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Got it. That's very helpful. I'll jump back into the queue. Good luck. Thanks. Thank you.

speaker
Josh
Conference Facilitator

Thank you. I would not like to turn the call back over to Nate Jorgensen for any closing remarks.

speaker
Nate Jorgensen
Chief Executive Officer

Great. Thank you. I appreciate everyone's time on the call today and interest in Boise Cascade. And we'll look forward to getting caught up with this team here at the end of first quarter. So again, thank you and have a great day.

speaker
Josh
Conference Facilitator

Thank you. This concludes the conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

-

-