Banco Macro S.A. ADR (representing Ten Class B Common Shares)

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's 1Q23 earnings conference call. We would like to inform you that 1Q23 press release is available to download at the investor relations website of Banco Macro at www.macro.com.ar forward slash relaciones dash inversores forward slash. Also, this event is being recorded and all participants will be in listen-only mode during the company's presentation. After the company's remarks are completed, there will be a question and answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given. Should any participant need assistance during this call, please press star then zero to signal the operator. It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina are Mr. Gustavo Marriquez, Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Jorge Carrinzi, Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Nicolás Torres, IR. Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolás Torres. You may begin your conference.

Thank you, Anthony. Good morning, and welcome to Banco Metro's first quarter 2023 conference call. Any comment we may make today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various conditions, and these are outlined in our 20F, which was filed to the SEC, and it's available at our website. First quarter 2023 press release was distributed yesterday, and it's available at our website. All figures are in our 29 pesos and have been restated in terms of the measuring unit current at the end of the reporting period. As of the first quarter of 2020, the bank began reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting in accordance with IFRS IAS 29, as established by the Central Bank of Argentina. For ease of comparison, figures of previous quarters have been restated applying IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effect of the inflation adjustment for each period through March 31st, 2023. I will now briefly comment on the bank's first quarter 2023 financial results. Banco Macro's net income for the quarter was 9.8 billion pesos, 52% lower than the fourth quarter of 2022, and 20% lower than the results posted a year ago. The bank's first quarter 2023 ROE and ROA of 8.2% and 1.7% respectively remained healthy and showed the bank's earnings potential. Net operating income before general, administrative, and personal expenses for the first quarter of 2023 was 167.8 billion pesos, increasing 5% or 8 billion pesos quarter-on-quarter due to higher income from financial instruments at fair value to profit or loss, and higher net fee income. On a yearly basis, net operating income before general and administrative and personal expenses increased 28% or 36.8 billion pesos. In the first quarter of 2023, provision for loan losses totaled 3.5 billion pesos, 13% or 397 million pesos higher than in the previous quarter. On a yearly basis, provision for loan losses increased 129% or 1.9 billion pesos. Operating income after general administrative and personal expenses were 103.9 billion pesos, 9% or 8.8 billion pesos higher than the fourth quarter of 2022, and 39% or 29.3 billion pesos higher than the first quarter of 2022. In the quarter, net interest income totaled 97.7 billion pesos, 4% or 4.1 billion pesos lower than the result posted in the fourth quarter of 2022, and 14% or 12 billion pesos higher than the result posted one year ago. In the first quarter of 2023, interest income totaled 228.6 billion pesos, 5% or 13 billion pesos lower than the fourth quarter of 2022. Due to lower income from government securities, it was 63% or 88 billion pesos higher than the previous year. Within interest income, interest on loans increased 2% or 1.6 billion pesos quarter on quarter due to a 304 basis point increase in the average lending rate. On a yearly basis, income from interest on loans was 25% or 17.3 billion higher. In the first quarter of 2023, interest on loans represented 38% of total interest income. Net income from government and private securities decreased 9% or 13.1 billion pesos quarter on quarter due to lower income from government securities. Compared to the first quarter of 2022, net income from government and private securities increased 91% or 64.6 billion pesos. In the first quarter of 2023, FX gains, including investment in derivative financing, totaled a 36.7 billion pesos gain due to the 18% Argentine peso depreciation against the U.S. dollars and the bank's long dollar position. In the first quarter of 2023, interest expense totaled 130.9 billion pesos, a 6% or 9 billion pesos decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, and a 138 or 75.9 billion pesos higher than on a yearly basis. Within interest expenses, interest on deposits decreased 7% or 10.1 billion pesos quarter on quarter, mainly driven by a 14% decrease in the average volume of private sector deposits, while the average interest rate paid on deposits increased 537 basis points. On a yearly basis, interest on deposits increased 143% or 75.1 billion pesos. In the first quarter of 2023, interest on deposits represented 98% of the bank's financial expenses. In the first quarter of 2023, the bank net interest margin, including FX, was 33.6%, higher than the 32.7% posted in the fourth quarter of 2022, and the 22.8% registered in the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, net fee income totaled 22 billion pesos, 6% or 1.3 billion pesos higher than the fourth quarter of 2022. On a yearly basis, net fee income was 6% higher. In the first quarter of 2023, net income from financial assets and liabilities for value to property or loss totaled at 9.2 billion pesos gain mainly due to the mark-to-market of dual bonds. In the quarter, other operating income totaled 5.7 billion pesos, decreasing 18% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. On a yearly basis, other operating income decreased 16% or 1.1 billion pesos. In the first quarter of 2023, Banco Macro's personal administrative expenses totaled 35.1 billion pesos, 1% or 424 million pesos lower than the previous quarter. due to lower administrative expenses, which were partially upset by higher employee benefits. On a yearly basis, personal and administrative expenses increased 12% or 3.8 billion pesos. In the first quarter of 2023, the efficiency ratio reached 25.5%, improving from the 28.6% posted in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, expenses decreased 1% while net interest income plus net fee income plus other operating income increased In the first quarter of 2023, the result from the net monetary position totaled 88.4 billion pesos loss, which was 27% or 19 billion pesos higher than the loss posted in the fourth quarter of 2022, as a consequence of higher inflation observed in the quarter, which was 444 basis points above the level registered in the fourth quarter of 2022. Inflation was 21.7% and was up from 17% from the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2023, Banco Macro's effective tax rate was 36.3%. Further information is provided in Note 22 to our financial statements. In terms of loan growth, the bank's financing to the private sector totaled 694.5 billion pesos, decreasing 4% or 30.4 billion pesos quarter-on-quarter and increasing 8% or 63.5 billion pesos year-on-year. Within commercial loans, overdrafts stand out with a 10% or 6.2 billion pesos decrease quarter on quarter. On the consumer side, credit card loans decreased 7% or 16.1 billion pesos in the quarter, while personal loans and mortgages decreased 7%. It is important to mention that Banco Marcos market share over private sector loans as of March 2023 reached 7.3%. On the funding side, total deposits decreased 7% or 112.6 billion pesos quarter on quarter, and increased 6% or 8 billion pesos year on year. Private sector deposits decreased 6% or 89.7 billion pesos quarter on quarter, but private sector deposits decreased 17% quarter on quarter. The decrease in private sector deposits was led by demand deposits, which decreased 13% or 83.4 billion pesos quarter on quarter, while time deposits increased 4% or 27 billion pesos. Within private sector deposits, peso deposits decreased 8% or 109.1 billion pesos, while U.S. dollar deposits decreased 17% or 196 million. As of March 2023, Banco Macro's transactional accounts represented approximately 42% of total deposits. Banco Macro's market share over private sector deposits as of March 2023 totaled 6.1%. In terms of asset quality, Bancomat's non-performing to total financial ratio reached 1.41%. The coverage ratio measured as total allowance under expected trade losses over non-performing loans under central bank rules totaled 145.3%. Consumer portfolio non-performing loans deteriorated 24 basis points up to 1.34% from 1.1% in the previous quarter, while commercial portfolio non-performing loans improved 22 basis points in the first quarter of 2023. They were down to 173% from 195 in the previous quarter. In terms of capitalization, Banco Macro accounted an excess capital of 520 billion pesos, which represented a total regular capital ratio of 42.4% and a tier one ratio of 39.1%. The bank's aim is to make the best use of this excess capital. The bank's liquidity remained more than appropriate. Liquid assets total deposit ratio reached 97%. Overall, we have accounted for another positive quarter. We continue to show a solid financial position. Asset quality remains under control and closely monitored. We keep on working to improve more our efficiency standards, and we keep a well-atomized deposit base. At this time, we would like to take the questions you may have.

Okay, at this time, we are going to open it up for questions and answers. If you would like to ask a question, please press star then one on your touchstone phone. Please unmute your phone and record your name clearly when prompted. One moment please for the first question. Our first question will come from Brian Flores with Citibank. You may now go ahead.

Hi, Tim. Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. I just have two questions. The first one is on ROE. So I know you're running at high levels of capital, and this could be a headwind, but are you changing the self-guidance you provided on the around 10% ROE from the previous conference call? And my second point is on politics. Given the momentum in Millet's candidacy, I just wanted to know if you know of any specific measures proposed by him or his team that could affect the banking regulation. Thank you very much.

Good morning, Brian. This is Jorge Carinzi. How are you? On your first question about ROE guidance that we gave in the former quarter conference call, basically what I'm thinking is what we mentioned was a kind of a range of guidance. Basically, what we are seeing right now in Argentina is higher inflation than the one that we, or at least the consensus was expecting. So the range for ROE for this year should be slightly lower than 10, should be 9% or 8.5% area. So because the consensus is expecting inflation to be 130%, compared to the 94% that we had in 2022. So basically, this is not an operating level, because at an operating level, we are showing good growth rates year over year and quarter over quarter, but in terms of bottom line, we are affected by high inflation. Your second question, honestly, We don't make a lot of comments on politics, but honestly, we do not know as far as, for the moment, any potential measure on Millet's candidacy. So honestly, no clue in this politics question that you ask. That is great. Thank you very much.

That is great. Thank you very much.

You're welcome.

Our next question will come from Ernesto Gabelonil with Bank of America. You may now go ahead.

Thank you. Hi. Good morning, Gustavo, Jorge, and Nicolas. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. I have three from my side. The first one will be on your expectations for Long Road. considering that, well, as you mentioned, we have been seeing higher inflation and higher interest rates in Argentina. So if you can elaborate on your expectations per segment for this year will be helpful. Then my second question is on your sensitivity to the Argentine peso and inflation. I think you have a dual bond position that benefits from the peso depreciation and the higher inflation. So I would like to understand the sensitivity. So, for example, an increase of 100 basis points on inflation or 100 basis points on the depreciation of the Argentine peso, what would that mean in terms of Argentine pesos in your P&L. I know it's a difficult one to estimate, but something approximately will help us. And then my last question is on your Tier 1 ratio. So we have seen that the regulator has allowed the banks to start paying excess capital and allow you to pay dividends. So after paying the dividends, where do you see your tier one ratio and where do you see will be like your targets or your comfortable level for the tier one ratio during the next years? Thank you.

Hi Ernesto, how are you? First question in terms of loan growth. Again, what we are seeing is that loans are going to grow in nominal levels, but are going to decrease in real terms as what we are seeing for the moment. Basically, this is a special year in terms of elections plus high inflation, and of course, high nominal rates. So we are not expecting a pressure on loan demand. So we are expecting loans to be below inflation between five and 10% in 2023. Mostly in the commercial area, maybe not that much in the consumption portfolio, but the total loan book should be down between five and 10% compared to inflation in 2023. In terms of your second question about the sensitivity on the dual bond portfolio and a 1% increase in inflation or the devaluation of the official effects could impact in our loan book. As you mentioned, it's not that easy to measure, but I would assume approximately in pesos should be after income tax in the area of 2.3, 2.4 billion pesos, a 1% increase in inflation, a 1% increase on the devaluation of the official effects. So take this number as a rough number, okay? In terms of your fourth question, the tier one ratio that, of course, know and we are conscious that this is a high number, that this is a consequence of what has happened in previous years about raising capital and two years that banks in general could not pay cash dividends. So as you mentioned, we are allowed to pay dividends this year again in six installments. Assuming that the dividend payment would be in one installment, the tier one ratio would be down from level of 39.1% that we posted in this press release to approximately 32%. However, since the dividend is going to be in installments, the tier one ratio might not decline that much because we are going to have the monthly results that could, at some point, offset the decline on the Tier 1 because of the payment of the dividends. But, of course, going forward, we would like to work, of course, with a narrower Tier 1 ratio. We are going to continue paying cash dividends. And, again, as always we mentioned, The consolidation or concentration process in the banking sector in Argentina, we think that is continuous. So it might happen that in the future, there could be a possibility for an M&A, so we could use this excess capital for those purposes also, plus that you have to, as we also always comment, that we are a private local bank, so we have to be a bit more conservative and always work with a cushion in terms of capital for organic growth. So let's assume that in a normalized scenario with a normalized inflation level, we should be working with a tier one ratio ranging in the area of 18, 20%. But that is a long-term normalized scenario, just to give you an idea where the ideal tier one ratio for Banco Macro would be.

No, this is super helpful Jorge. Thank you very much.

You're welcome.

Our next question will come from Yuri Fernandez with JP Morgan. You may now go ahead.

Hello, everybody. Thank you, Jorge and Nicolas. I have a question regarding deposits. Deposits are down 7% quarter over quarter. But when we look to the cheap demand deposits and savings and all of that, they are down even more. And I kind of get that there may be some seasonality, first Q versus first Q. But looking over here, they're still down. So my question is, what is happening with deposits? What is your outlook there? And I have a second question regarding capital. Like for sure, you were not paying dividends. All those explanations already gave in the previous question. But also the mix of loans to assets also changed a lot over the years, right? So you have much more government security than loans. And I think the risk weighting factors of these mix is super beneficial for your capital ratios. My question is, Have you ever done an exercise returning to a more normalized loan-to-asset mix and what would be your capital ratio today? Because the concern is at some point, let's say Argentina becomes a more normalized banking sector and starts having more loans, how your capital would look like? Do you really have this amount of excess capital or is this mostly because you have a a very government-related security mix.

Thank you. Hi, Yuri. How are you? In terms of your deposit question, you have to consider the inflation environment here. At some point, it sounds quite reasonable that people holding money in transactional accounts try to minimize those balances because inflation being at i don't know between seven and a half and eight percent a month is is a lot so at some point that could be some reasonable behavior from from depositors on the transactional accounts when you see the time deposits they are growing quarter on quarter or year over year in real terms and that is because of the increase on the interest rate that we have seen that the central bank have done in the last 60 or 90 days. So we think that the deposit behavior is quite reasonable. And of course, we continue to be pretty liquid in that sense. So in terms of funding, we feel pretty comfortable on the structure that we have right now on our deposit base. On your second question, we have not done the calculation exactly on what would happen if instead of having securities or government bonds, that would be translated into new loans. As far as we know, of course, the level of loans to assets right now is one of the lowest in the history as a consequence of what we have mentioned previously. Basically, the economy is not doing that well. Inflation is very high. Elections are going to take place in the next four or five months. But if you look backwards, I think that we'll reach loans to asset levels of close to 65%. I would say that in those areas, we will remain with a very high tier one ratio. In that sense, we do not have, of course, a problem of excess capital. We continue to be the best capitalized bank in Argentina. We feel, again, comfortable with the with the level of capital that we have going forward, not in the present because of excess that we understand is high, but going forward, we think that we are going to be or become much more efficient on this excess capital.

No, that's pretty clear Jorge. Just to follow up on deposits, the minimum deposit payment, right? It's only for time deposits, right? So most of your spread on deposits, they are coming from checking savings account. Is that correct? Or those deposits also have some kind of, you know, minimum government remuneration?

The minimum rate is for time deposits only. Perfect. Thank you.

You're welcome.

Our next question will come from Carlos Gomez with HSBC. You may now go ahead.

Hello, good morning, Jorge Nicolas. Questions, I'm looking at the page 16 of your press release and I noticed that you have sharply reduced your exposure to share and increased your U.S. dollar net exposure. Is that correct? Are you currently $1.5 billion less long US dollar, and if the time comes, how certain are you that this net position is something that you could have access to? And what is the reason for the reduction in the share exposure? Was this a swap of assets, or there is a different view that you have about how things are going to go?

Thank you.

Hi, Carlos. How are you? Basically, the change here is because we have a large portfolio on the dual bonds and a little bit on dollar link bonds. In this case, all the long position on these bonds is taken into the foreign currency position and not on the inflation position because we have to choose where to put it. And that's why we have increased or why we have such a long position in US dollars and decrease on the inflation exposure, basically.

Okay, so you have to choose, but then if I add your SED exposure and your FOREX exposure, it would have been reduced in the first quarter, right? Because you had 200, it went down to 73 for SED, and you had 1.6 and it went to 1.5. Have you closed the gaps in your balance sheet going into 2023?

Basically, no. If you put all the effects, you mean if you put all the net effects on the SERP, Could be a little bit, but because we changed from some inflation bonds to dual bonds. But basically, we continue to be, since we have to choose one of each, but in reality, we have exposure to both, either inflation or devaluation of the effects, the higher. So again, maybe a little bit in in terms of of inflation so this could be also because there were some loans tied to inflation that were matured and we have an increase in the in our loan book adjusted by inflation in the same amount as the one that they were doing basically okay and one final clarification so again when i look at this table and i see a

position of 1.5 billion, that's about half of your equity with the official exchange rate. Should we see that as real? Are you indeed hedged to half of your capital if and when there is a devaluation in Argentina?

Yes.

Yeah. Excellent. Thank you so much.

You're welcome.

Again, if you have a question, please press star then 1. Our next question will come from Robert Gilman with Free Technology. You may now go ahead.

Hello. In regards to your dividends, how many dividends payments are you planning to make in the next year?

Good morning. We are going to make a payment this year. We are going to pay six installments starting at the end of May, the first one. Thank you. You're welcome.

Our next question will come from Rodrigo Nistor with Latin Situations. You may now go ahead.

Hi, how are you? Jorge Nicola. Thank you for the opportunity. I mean, most of my questions have already been answered, but just with all these inflation challenges and tough regulations we're expecting these years, are you at Banco Maduro already brainstorming for 2025, 2026, or does the upcoming election make it too hard to plan that far ahead? And then maybe, Jorge, what are the big things on your worry list right now? Thank you.

Hi, Rodrigo. Of course, we are not thinking exactly on 25 or 26, but in Argentina, it's not that easy to forecast two or three years ahead. Of course, we know where we want to be, and our strategy will continue. We have a strategy in the long run that is to be the leading bank in Argentina. Maybe in the interim we'll have to adjust the strategy as the one that we are doing right now. I think that most of the banks are doing that. When you have a declining loan demand and you have deposits growing, you have excess funds, at some point you have to invest them in some place where to get some return, plus at some point you have to hedge your equity against inflation or against a potential devaluation of the effects. But I think that in the long run, we have a clear picture where we want to be in the leading positions of the banking sector in Argentina. I would say that the thing that worries us most are basically an acceleration of inflation, that this is going to affect more the loan demand and, of course, the P&L on banks. I would say that inflation would be the worst problem for the banking sector, and I think that for Argentina in general.

Okay. That was helpful. Thank you.

Welcome.

There are no more questions at this time. This concludes the question and answer session. I would now turn over to Mr. Nicolas Torres for final considerations.

Thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again. Have a good day.

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.