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BP p.l.c.

Q42024

2/11/2025

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Welcome everybody to BP's fourth quarter and full year results call. We'll be focusing today's call on the fourth quarter and 2024 performance and the contents of the video that I hope many of you will have seen by now. I also understand there is significant interest in our capital markets update in a couple of weeks time. However, I'm sure you'll also appreciate that we can't comment on any issues relating to that today. So please focus your questions accordingly. With that, let me hand over to

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

Murray. Thanks, Greg. Thanks everyone for joining Kate and I on the call today. When I look back at 2024, we've achieved a lot. We've made significant strategic progress, taking decisive action and reshaping our portfolio and laying the foundations for growth, including 10 new FIDs, including Cascada and Tangoo, new access in Iraq and India, divesting tail assets in Trinidad, exiting the Empire wind in the US offshore, decapitalizing our offshore wind business by agreeing to form a joint venture Jarenx BP, focusing our EV charging business and our hydrogen pipeline, acquiring full ownership of BP bioenergy and light source BP, and recently announcing our intention to sell the Gelsenkirchen refinery. In two weeks time, we will build on the actions taken in the last 12 months and provide a comprehensive update at our capital markets event. It will be a fundamental reset of our strategy. It will demonstrate our focus on actions to drive performance, and it will enable us to grow cash flow and returns and shareholder value. With that said, let me focus on today and briefly recap our highlights for this year. Many of our businesses performed well during 2024. Upstream production was around 2.36 million barrels per day, up 2% this year, with plant reliability above 95%. It was a good year for trading, and its track record for delivering an average 4% uplift to group Hroachi now extends to the past five years, despite the lack of volatility. But we have had a difficult year in refining, with a whiting outage in 1Q and the challenging margin and environment, and we were also impacted by the weaker biofuels margins and trucking recession impact on TA. We remain firmly focused on taking action to improve our performance across refining and on the work to integrate our recently acquired businesses into BP, driving the synergies and underlying performance that we expect. Finally, on distributions, we grew our dividend per share by 10% and announced $7 billion of share buybacks, including a $1.75 billion announced today. With that summary, let's go to Q&A. Over to you to get us started, Craig.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Murray. Given my earlier remarks, I am going to ask you to each limit yourselves to one question so we can let everyone get a chance. We'll look to close the call by 1.45 p.m. time. There's obviously plenty of time in two weeks time for more questions, and of course the IR team is available to follow up. So with that, let's get started. I think we will take the first question from Josh Stone at UBS, please. Josh.

speaker
Josh Stone
Analyst, UBS

Hi, Craig, and good afternoon. With my one question, I'll focus on the refining and trading performance this quarter. It was another week quarter that you talk about improvement plans. I just want to get some how confident are you the issues you experienced in 2024 are now in the rear of your mirror, and what more can be done to improve profitability of that division? And maybe if you can give any early insights of how trading has performed during the first quarter, given we're almost halfway through. Thanks.

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

Great. Thanks, Josh. Thanks for the question. You're right. It was a challenging year for refining. The industry in the basins in which we were operating were probably bottom of cycle for margin and pricing. So I think that's an industry wide issue that we're a part of as well. But of course, we had the outage in one queue in Whiting as well. An electrical fault that tripped the plant. In four queue itself, reliability was fine across the portfolio. We, of course, had a massive turnaround at Whiting. It was a huge program. We replaced the Coker tops, which is an incredible effort by the teams. And so that obviously dramatically impacted the results in four queue. As we look forward. We are confident that we will continue to improve the business. Gordon can talk about this in a few weeks time when we talk through what we're doing to improve the refining business. We're focused on four things. First of all, getting plant reliability back to that 96 percent, making sure that we don't have material trips. Turnarounds are going well. Maintenance is going well. But we have to stick to it and make sure we hit that 96 percent and Gordon and the team are laser beam focused on that. Out of that then comes the ability to commercially optimize. When you have outages, you can't commercially optimize. So we think between getting back to 96 percent and and steady operations, that then lets us start to optimize and earn more money. The third thing I'd say is there's a strong cost agenda across all of CNP and that will really start to take root in refining and in 2025. And last, we will have a year of much lower complexity, TARS and 25 and 24. That should all take us back to profitability. And I think I think we feel confident in that. And again, in two weeks time, Gordon can take you through those plans on trading. It was an average year, a four percent year, despite the lack of volatility on the oil and refined product side. I think you'll have seen some of that reported out of competitors about how much how far down they were. So the teams did well to make sure that we continue to hit that track record that we've had over the past past five years. Now, looking forward, refining margins started the year very bad in January. They're starting to uptake now as we move into TARS season globally. I think the RMMs are up a bit and we're starting to see some volatility. So I think that's probably all I'll say, Josh, but we're laser beam focused on it. We know we need to do better and we will. Thanks for the question.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Josh. Thanks for coming, Morrish. We'll turn next to Peter Lowe at Redburn.

speaker
Peter Lowe
Analyst, Redburn Partners

Peter. Hi, thanks. Yeah, I just had a question on some of your recent upstream announcements. So you'll deal with ONGC and then also the redevelopment of Kirkuk. Can you perhaps talk a bit more about what you found attractive about those opportunities and then potentially the sort of returns you might see for those sorts of technical service contracts type agreements?

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks. Yep. Great, Peter. Thanks for the questions. Look, we've we've established a pretty strong track record in the Middle East and Far East to being able to help operators with late light developments. So as water starts to come into developments, as you have to develop tricky reservoirs, we've built a very, very strong reputation. Started in Alaska, moved to Sam at lower Ramell is a good example of it, etc. So we have a very strong track record in this, and that's what's enabling us to take advantage of these opportunities for direct access, like in India and like in Iraq. In ONGC, it's a services contract. We're very pleased with it. We don't deploy cost or capital. Instead, we provide people and advice to drive stronger performance inside that business. I can't really talk about what the commercial returns are, but they're quite attractive for India and they're quite attractive for us. We found a nice middle ground where both sides actually can can do very well for each other if we can start to drive that production higher. And we believe based on all the due diligence we've done that we can certainly help India with that. And then on Kirkuk, we're in the final throes of the negotiations now. Five domes of oil, 20 billion barrels yet to produce, a competitive PSA agreement, competitive internationally. And of course, it's because of our track record inside the nation that we're able to help them there. So that what will give you more on Kirkuk once we've finished off the negotiations and announce it. Let's see. Let's see when the teams can get to completion on that. But we feel very excited about that and it will be internationally competitive. And and we look forward to telling you more about that. Hopefully a capital markets day. We can update you more on that.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Peter. We'll take the next question from Biraj Bokhtari, RBC Biraj.

speaker
Biraj Bokhtari
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Hi, thanks for taking my question. And firstly, thank you for the breakdown on the on the operating cost side. And it's good to see the sort of internal lens. This is what we see. Just thinking about your strategies, it looks like you're going to be including a more capital light approach and more JVs and things like that, like the Jira deal. As it relates to your cost reduction targets, are you able to say this quantum of costs that will come off your balance sheet as part of the transactions that have already been agreed? Just so I can get a sense of the main issue of that. Thank you.

speaker
Kate
Chief Financial Officer

Kate. Yeah. Hi, Biraj. And thank you for the the comment with regard to our cost disclosure. We have tried to help people by giving, I think, quite a lot more granularity and specificity than we have done previously. So I'm pleased that that has worked for you so far. So let's see with regards to the capital light approach on renewables, I think for capital. Well, let's let's leave that to capital markets. They will update you comprehensively with regard to capital right across the portfolio at that point and with regard to cash costs. So we have already been successful in reducing some of our cash costs through focusing our portfolio, which we talked about on previous quarterly results calls. It's part and parcel of the seven hundred and fifty million of structural reductions that we've delivered this year, which is great progress. And beyond that, we will just update you as we go. We will try and be as specific as we can quarter on quarter on the areas where we are delivering cost reductions and point out where they're coming from with regard to third party supply chain or focusing the portfolio. So we will make sure we give you enough granularity on that going forward to.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Biraj. We'll take the next. Thank you. We'll take the next question from Doug Leggett at Wolf.

speaker
Doug Leggett
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Doug. Good morning, everyone. Good afternoon over there. Thanks for taking my question. I guess it's like it's a question for Kate. Kate, I wonder if you could just help us with the continued commentary around the forty dollar break even to help us benchmark the expectations for what you announced later this month. And what I'm trying to understand specifically is you had this nine hundred and something million dollars and hundred and seventeen million dollars one off cost. I think it was this quarter and I'm trying to understand what that was, how that influences your view of where the run rate break even is currently. Excuse me. And whether the financing charges below the operating line are included in that definition. So this help us benchmark the starting point ahead of the capital markets. Thanks.

speaker
Kate
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, thanks, Doug. With regard to the balance point, we'll update the fin frame in totality in two weeks time. The forty dollar balance point is important to us internally as we think about our dividend. It's it's a key part of ensuring that it's a resilient through cycle in terms of the one off. So there were a couple of one offs that we called out specifically in oil and gas. I don't recognize the nine hundred. I recognize about a four hundred that we highlighted in the in the segment. There was three hundred in there, which was associated with hedging and income from a sale of royalties and about a hundred in the gas and low carbon. Really trying to be transparent and helping you as we move towards the first quarter. I wanted to demonstrate there were a few things in our fourth quarter results that are unlikely to be repeated in the first quarter. But I'm happy that we sweep up after the call if if you have a different number in your head. Yeah,

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

Doug, the financing costs are inside the balance point, including the hybrid and hybrid and interest expenses. That's all that's all part of the balance point.

speaker
Doug Leggett
Analyst, Wolfe Research

Thank you. I said nine hundred and seventeen remeasurement of joint venture step acquisition is what I'm referring to.

speaker
Kate
Chief Financial Officer

Oh, thank you. So, yeah, I can tackle that one very quickly. So the transactions that we had with regard to the acquisition of BP bioenergy and light source BP were both step transition, both step transactions as we already own significant percentages of the equity in those organizations. It's just an accounting term. The nine hundred and seventeen were both arising with regard to light source BP. It's just a remeasurement of the existing equity we held in light source BP and a remeasurement of the assets that we hold for sale in regard to light source BP. So it's a it's a technical accounting non cash cash.

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Kate. Awesome. All right. Thanks so much. Appreciate it. Thanks, Doug. We'll take the next question from Al Simon City. Oh,

speaker
Al Simon
Analyst, Citi

she's not the frontrunner strategy update, but you've put the words fundamental reset out there in today's press release. So can I ask what's going on in the last few months in the environment and in your discussions with the board to change the emphasis from the prior wording that you use, which I think was mid strategy update?

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

Yep. Thanks, Alan. I hear your voice. All I'd say is if you look back at the degree of activity we've had over the past 12 months, it's pretty significant. We have sanctioned 10 new projects, stopped 30 projects across the business. We've accessed new countries. We've completely decapitalized renewables. So it's a sizable shift in the portfolio that we have moving forward. And given the degree of that change, it's now time to to reset the strategy and plot a new beginning for us. So it's just we've done an awful lot over the past 12 months. And this is the right time now to share that with share that with you, the community. And I'm excited to be sharing it with you in a couple of weeks time. It's gonna be great.

speaker
Al Simon
Analyst, Citi

So it's not the externalities of the micro environment.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

No, no. No. OK, thank you. Thanks, Al. We'll take the next question from Irene Hamona at Bernstein.

speaker
Irene Hamona
Analyst, Bernstein

Irene. Thank you. Good afternoon. I had a question on your transition engine EBITDA. I presume this is the last time we will get EBITDA given you're retiring the metric. But I wanted to to focus on bioenergy. It seems just to the same definition that has remained flat at around 700 million a year. Can you give us a sense within that of the split between biofuels and biogas? The question is really about our care. Can we assume that our care has improved within that total? Since we know that biofuels margins were particularly weak, I mean, liquid biofuels. Thank you.

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

Yep. Great, Irene. Thanks. Markeia continues to improve. Yes. Last year, we got nine out of the 15 plants online. We wanted to three more now online and functioning. We have three still flowing to midstream, but not yet able to declare startup. So we've established 12 new plants this year, which obviously throw through earnings from 24 and 25. So certainly we're seeing improvement in our care as we move forward. As you rightly point out, bioenergy is challenging or sorry, biofuels are rightfully challenging, especially in Europe. It's quite challenging. So we we we don't see a lot of performance momentum inside biofuels in Europe. That's why we're being very, very careful with the sanctioning any new plants. You may have seen a recycling in Australia as well, but we're pleased with progress on our care. We're not quite where we want to be. We're probably 12 months behind progress in our care because we had to take our time to make the designs work. We had to take our time to get the permitting right. We had to take our time to get the hookups to the midstream providers right. So we've had to take a bit more time than we originally wanted to. And that's on us. But with 13 plants up now, I think the closest competition is two or three a year right now. So we feel like we're in a good competitive position. Prices and demand remain very strong for it as well. And we'll look forward to continuing growth out of our care moving forward. And Carol will give you an update on that in a couple of weeks time. Thank you.

speaker
Irene Hamona
Analyst, Bernstein

Thank you.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Irene. We're going to take the next question from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays. Lydia. Do we have you, Lydia? OK. Yeah, thank you. Sorry. Go ahead.

speaker
Lydia Rainforth
Analyst, Barclays

Yeah. Thanks. And just thanks, Craig. And just on the cost base, if I can come back to that and Ako Biraj's words on it, it's actually really helpful disclosure. You do talk, Kate, about the idea of the kind of strong cost margin ratio. I'm just wondering, is there any way you can sort of talk us through how that's what you actually mean by that, how you measure it and how that might have changed over the last couple of years? Because I think that cost base and it generating EBITDA is actually quite an important part for you.

speaker
Kate
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, thanks, Lydia. So as we said in the disclosures, quite a lot of this variable cost, actually a huge part of it relates to our trading business. And as you would imagine, it's a very, very margin focused business. So the analysis of that is just part of the way they work. We pay very close attention to the gross margin that we're generating on trading. If I look at what's gone on in the last few years, so there's been about a 45 percent increase in and shipping costs and trading of freight rates are up. And then the other component part, which you'll be familiar with, is the scale of increase in our portfolio. That's grown by by over 50 percent. That's what's driving our cost base in the inside that that part of the base. In terms of variable costs, though, I think it's really important to understand that these are directly related to the delivery of margin. And whilst we need to make sure that they are being efficiently managed, which which we do, it would be crazy to put a target on those in terms of a reduction. I don't want to turn around to Carol and say, please, could you reduce your shipping costs? That wouldn't be a great decision point in terms of driving value and returns as far as we're concerned. So that's how we think about it. And that's why we've provided the level of granularity that we have and we will continue to provide with regard to our cost base.

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

In a couple in a couple of weeks time, Carol will be talking about talking about the trading business again. I think she'll unpack some of this as well. And I think I think you'll I think you'll find that there's a fixed margin that we have across our business that's driven by this portfolio of shipping oil, of shipping diesel, bunkering and the expansion. So more details to come in a couple of weeks time. And Carol will be happy to answer more detailed questions on that.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Lydia. We'll take the next question from Lucas Herman at Exxon BNP. Lucas, sorry.

speaker
Lucas Herman
Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Yeah, thanks very much, Craig. Hopefully you can hear me and Mari. I hope the op went well and that you're well. Very brief one. LNG and volumes this year. How much of an increment do you expect to receive from beach from tour to potentially attaining volumes from from venture? Can you just give us an idea of the tons of increase that you're budgeting for? That's it. Thank you.

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

Yep. Great. Thanks, Torch. Thank you for the kind wishes. I'm feeling great, Lucas. It's nice to be back in the office. Tortue and beach are about three million tons per annum added, assuming a full year flow venture. I'm just going to not comment as the arbitration continues. Let's let's see how that arbitration goes. Hopefully we see a ruling in the back half of the year on that and then we start to see flow. But I think between torture and beach, we've got three MTP. It'll come through.

speaker
Lucas Herman
Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Thank you.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Lucas. Moving on to Matt Lofting at JP Morgan. Matt.

speaker
Matt Lofting
Analyst, JP Morgan

Hi, thanks for taking the questions to if I could please. First, just on costs. I think you showed in slide 12 about five billion of structural cost reduction over the last few years. If I understood right, I think that includes divestments. I wondered if you could break down how much of that five is divestments versus underlying given the BP's divested about 20 billion of assets over the course of that period. And then second, I just want to ask you about Russia and sort of Rosneft given debate over recent days and weeks around Russia, Ukraine and sort of ceasefire scenarios, et cetera. Could you see a sort of a feasible scenario and could it be sort of palatable for BP at board level around the case for reconsolidating the Rosneft shares in the future onto the balance sheet? I just wondered how you sort of see that today. Thank you.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Okay, Matt, you've broken the rule already. So but we're going to take that one. I'm gonna let Murray answer the question on Russia, but maybe first, Kate on on your costs question.

speaker
Kate
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so we're not planning on breaking this down by portfolio movement. Matt, we're very clear that it does include portfolio, but we're we're trying to give you as much granularity as we can. But but I think we need to draw the line in some areas and where it's a very big portfolio impact. And then, of course, we'll try and call it out and help you with regard to understanding the underlying cost base going forward.

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

Lots of ins and outs in there as well. And then on on Russia. Look, our principal focus right now is on divesting the stake. There are more than a dozen countries that have sanctions on the entity. So we think the best focus that we can possibly have is on continuing to divest this and we'll update the market as we go along on that. Thanks for the question.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks. Thanks, Matt. We're going to just move to a quick question from Ahmed Ben Salam from Odor, who's online. Ahmed's question is, how do you see the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian crude on Whiting's refining margins?

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, thanks, Ahmed. Pretty difficult to predict is my answer. We have the ability to flow volume south to north in the United States if we need to. Obviously, the Canadian producers have optionality to flow some product to the West Coast and overseas as well. Upon announcement of the tariffs, the WTIWC spread opened up quite a bit, probably absorbing half of that tariff. So I think it's a very, very dynamic scenario and it's very difficult to predict what will happen to margins on the northern tier. And so we'll just have to watch and see how the market turns out on this one. I don't think it's straightforward because there are so many different flows that get impacted with Mexican flows, with southern U.S. to northern U.S. flows, with Canadian flows. So I have studied it heavily with the teams and I'm afraid I find it very, very difficult to predict what will happen. But we will update you and do courses as we learn about it. Thanks for the question.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Ahmed. We're going to turn to Chris Kupland at Bank of America. Chris.

speaker
Chris Kupland
Analyst, Bank of America

Thank you very much. And it's, of course, dangerous to allow breaking the precedent. So let me try. And this could be a very short answer. But you may have your reasons for not publishing what the surplus cash flow is on a quarterly basis. But maybe you can just yes or no confirm that for the full year it was somewhere around four billion. And if I may, I just wanted to get an explanation how you feel about the value equation from issuing more hybrid bonds in November, which I guess will push up your cash outflows in the cash flow statement, which I make out at around an 8 percent cost of that carrying value. So I just wanted to understand how attractive you think that is, continuing to issue hybrid bonds to lower your net debt. Thank you.

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

Great. Why don't we just we're going to go back to focusing on one question. So, Kate, why don't you tackle the hybrid question? And Chris, we can follow up with you offline on the other question.

speaker
Kate
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So you'll have heard me say in previous calls, Chris, that I do think they're an important part of our capital structure. We're not we're not seeking to build towers here. Just to be super clear, what we did in the fourth quarter, which others others also did, by the way, is take advantage of a really strong environment. The senior sub spreads were an all time low. And so we were able to issue hybrids in advance of our coming maturities in this year and in next year. And it's really just a value play, right? The hybrid market can fluctuate. We wanted to make sure that when it was in a particularly strong moment that we took absolute best advantage of that. That's that's all that's going on with hybrids. I remind you that about half of our hybrids are fixed cost and also that the the payments with regard to a fully tax deductible. So, yeah, I mean, they're not they're not the cheapest, but it's an important part of our capital structure. And we will continue to look very carefully and and select maturities as and when the value feels right for us.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Kate. Thank you, Chris. We're going to turn to Roger Reed in the U.S. at Wells Fargo.

speaker
Roger Reed
Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities

Roger. Yeah, good morning and good afternoon to you. But let me let me ask you a U.S. question. .P.X. just kind of a update on performance and how you're thinking about, you know, any particular increase in activity in any of the gas areas.

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

Great. Hey, Roger. Nice to nice to hear your voice. We continue to admire what .P.X. is doing. They continue to perform very well. We've got our third our third central gathering facility up online and full now in the Permian. And we're looking forward to getting the last one up around middle of this year. I think the most interesting that we're seeing right now are these refrax inside the Eagle Ford, where the refrax and downspacing are actually creating more flow than the original mother bores. So there's something about a recharging reservoir going on there that we didn't really predict in shale. And that's a very interesting opportunity as the returns are triple digit plus on that space on the gas side. We're contemplating increasing rigs right now. Gas pricing is very, very solid as we look at the second half of twenty five and into early twenty six. And so Gordon and Kate and I are debating, should we be doing that? What head strategy would we have around it? And how many rigs should we grow? But with the prices that we're seeing now on the Ford markets, the returns inside the gas now beat the returns inside the oil basins. So that'll be something that we're thinking about and we'll look forward to more questions in that space in a couple of weeks time where you can where you can ask Gordon about that stuff as well. Thanks, Roger.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks. Thank you, Roger. We'll turn to Alejandro Vigil at Santander next please. Alejandro.

speaker
Alejandro Vigil
Analyst, Santander

Yes, thank you for taking my question. My question is basically about the slide number 16 of the presentation where you are talking about building momentum into twenty five. And you saw this chart with a significant increase in year on year in every day. Which are the moving parts of this of this increase? I mean, there are some consolidation portfolio, etc. And I'm making this question also in the context of looking at consensus number 37 billion dollars for this year. Looks like there is a big gap between consensus and and this is slide number 16. You can elaborate on this, please.

speaker
Kate
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, thank you, Alejandro. Yes. So if you think about twenty twenty four EBITDA, so we printed thirty eight billion for twenty twenty four. If you were to adjust that for twenty three prices, if you think back, I think it was to Q earlier this earlier last year when we we talked about the impact of price on our forty six to forty nine billion EBITDA target. If you adjust our twenty twenty four EBITDA back for twenty twenty three prices and if you think about twenty three, although the commodities move around, taken as a basket, it's broadly comparable to our planning assumptions. And then if you use rules, rules of thumb and you adjust for the fact that whiting will be will be back up and operating well this year, you adjust for portfolio and you adjust adjust for typical underlying growth that we expect to deliver year on year. You get to a number that's just under our our target of forty six to forty nine, which is what we've said today. And to be clear, we we've said for a while now that our focus is very much shifting to get to cash in two weeks time. We'll update you fully in terms of targets, metrics and financial frame, and that will help put the retiring of this target into context for you.

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

I think I'd twenty four versus twenty five. Obviously, we've got the absence of the whiting outage depending on the margin. That's worth quite a bit of money. And then we have the three to four percent underlying growth that I've been talking about quarter in and quarter out that we see year on year across the business for twenty four versus twenty five. That comes broadly across cost. So continued cost improvement based on the great start we've done this year, along with improvements and things like Castrol, doing better European convenience, doing better. Australian convenience, doing better and continue to improve performance inside the upstream, along with, as I said, in the refining coverage, less less complicated. Tars. So it's a lot of small things that add up to that three to four percent improvement and underlying plus plus the recovery from the whiting outage in twenty twenty four.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

OK, thanks, Alejandro. We will turn to Michele De La Vina, please, at Goldman Sachs. Michele.

speaker
Michele De La Vina
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you. And very much looking forward to the CMB. Just just one modeling question from my side. We've seen two items before below EBIT, which were larger than expected than at interest cost and the minorities. I was just wondering if you could perhaps guide us on whether we should assume this is a new ongoing run rate or if there was any one off impact in the quarter. Thank you.

speaker
Kate
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, thanks, Michele. In terms of of net interest, that was up quarter on quarter, really, just because our gross debt had grown. We took advantage this year in terms of markets and issued a fair amount of debt without actually buying back any more of our maturities. That's something that will will continue to dress up as we have done previously based on value and in terms of the cash. It's a very minimal cost of carry right now, given the forward curves as well. So that's all that's going on in net interest.

speaker
Michele De La Vina
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

OK, thank you for the minorities.

speaker
Kate
Chief Financial Officer

So there's a movement in and that really just related to the change in hybrids in the fourth quarter.

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

You'd probably expect both to reverse over time. Thank you. You probably expect both to reverse over time as you decrease your hybrids again and as you pay off your debt.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Kate. Thank you, Michele. We'll turn to Paul Cheng in the US at Scotiab poll.

speaker
Paul Cheng
Analyst, Scotiabank

Thank you. Good morning or good afternoon. Your time, Kate, can I go back into the 2025 year? But you're saying that just for the pricing, you will be slightly below the low end of the range. So comparing to the midpoint, that's probably say, call it two billion dollars less. Can you tell us that comparing to the initial expectation, which area that seeing the myths and what's causing those? Thank you.

speaker
Kate
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, thank you. So I think the two areas I would highlight, we've talked before about bio margins in Europe being suppressed due to two reasons. One, the Nordic countries rowing back to rowing back their voluntary mandates to the EU mandated levels and also a level of oversupply from Asia. The other area I would call out is is travel centers of America where it's been slightly slower than we expected in terms of recovery from the trucking recession. We see green shoots. It's starting to improve. I think we're probably a year further out in terms of seeing full recovery. That's more likely to come through in twenty twenty six now.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you. Thank you, Paul. And it looks like just now the last question is from Jackamore Romeo Jeffries. Jackamore.

speaker
Jackamore Romeo Jeffries
Analyst

Yes, thank you. Just a quick one on more on the modeling side. Your lease is obviously gone up as you've guided and just trying to get a better sense of where we should expect lease payments to move to in going forward. In Q4, we're still relatively in line with the previous quarters, just trying to understand whether that should go up and by what extent into next year.

speaker
Kate
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I'll take that. There's that the releases were pretty flat quarter on quarter, but we did add to our lease liabilities in the fourth quarter with the completion of Bungo. They've got about three hundred thousand hectares of land leased. So you will expect a small increase with regard to that. And then there was an extension of a lease that trading use in the US, but for commercial reasons, I wouldn't go into that. So four Q versus three Q pretty flat, but you'll see a little bit of tick up with regard to the bungalows.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Super thanks, Kate. We're going to let Baraj sneak in with the last question. But as you've come back on over to you,

speaker
Biraj Bokhtari
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

please. Hi, sorry, I think someone's going to ask this, but I was on the last one. I might as well. Given the news yesterday around your new shareholders, any comments you can make about any engagements you've had with Elliot? Thank you.

speaker
Murray
Chief Executive Officer

Look, Baraj, it's market speculation right now and we don't we don't comment on market speculation. Thanks for the question.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

OK,

speaker
Roger Reed
Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities

thank you.

speaker
Greg
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks for the question, Baraj. OK, I am going to there's no more questions online, so we are going to close the call on that note. So that's the last question. We'll close the call on behalf of Murray, Kate, myself and also members of the leadership team who'll join us on February the 26th. We look forward to seeing many of you in London and of course, those of you who will be joining the the event by webcast. So look forward to seeing you in a couple of weeks and thank you for listening into today's call.

Disclaimer

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Q4BP 2024

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