11/20/2020

speaker
Operator

Welcome to the Bellring Brands fourth quarter and full year 2020 earnings conference call and webcast. Hosting the call today from Bellring Brands are Darcy Davenport, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Paul Rode, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay beginning at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. The dial-in number is 800-585-8367, and the passcode is 497-1167. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Jennifer Meyer, Investor Relations of Bellring Brands, for introductions. You may begin.

speaker
Jennifer Meyer
Investor Relations

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Bellring Brands' fourth quarter fiscal 2020 earnings call. With me today are Darcy Davenport, our President and CEO, and Paul Rhone, our CFO. Darcy and Paul will begin with prepared remarks, and afterwards we'll have a brief question and answer session. Press releases, supplemental slide presentations that support these remarks are posted on our website in both the investor relations and the SEC filing sections at bellring.com. In addition, the release and slides are available on the SEC's website. Before we continue, I would like to remind you that this call will contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that should be carefully considered by investors as actual results could differ materially from these statements. These forward-looking statements are current as of the date of this call, and management undertakes no obligation to update these statements. As a reminder, this call is being recorded, and an audio replay will be available on our website. And finally, this call will discuss certain non-GAAP measures. For reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure, see our press release issued yesterday and posted on our website. With that, I will turn the call over to Darcy.

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Jennifer, and thank you all for joining us this morning. Last evening, we reported our fourth quarter and fiscal 2020 results, as well as posted a supplemental presentation to our website. This presentation provides more insight into our business, consumption, and key metrics. We finished 2020 strong, with record net sales for the quarter of $283 million, up 32%, and adjusted EBITDA of $57 million. For the year, net sales grew to $988 million, slightly exceeding our revised sales guidance, with adjusted EBITDA of $197 million. Despite the challenges that COVID created, we exceeded our long-term algorithm and delivered net sales growth of 16%. Adjusted EBITDA came in at the midpoint of our original guidance, and we delivered strong cash flow generation, reducing our net leverage. I'm proud of our accomplishments in our first year as a public company and specifically for the resilience our employees demonstrated throughout a challenging year. This morning, I'll review the category, brand highlights, growth strategies, and end with our fiscal 21 outlook. The convenient nutrition category has been stable since mid-June, although below pre-COVID levels as a result of less on-the-go usage, mainly due to nutrition bars. Across the category, we're seeing fewer shopping trips, higher basket sizes, and the category continues to shift to e-commerce and food channels. Our main segments, liquids and powders, have rebounded to their pre-COVID growth rates. However, the virus has impacted the category segments differently. Adult and everyday nutrition brands continue to gain share, driven by higher in-home usage. Weight management has suffered as consumers move to comfort foods, while sports nutrition brands are primarily flat as consumers figure out new ways to exercise outside the gym. Premier protein shake consumption improved this quarter, up 20% across tracked and untracked channels. Growth was strong across all of our key channels, club, mass, food, and e-commerce. Effective promotional programs along with distribution gains and healthy velocities drove consumption growth. Untracked channels continued to outpace tracked at 38% while tracked returned to growth this quarter. This strong momentum has continued in Q1 with the first six weeks showing 21% growth across tracked and untracked channels with impressive gains in food, mass, and e-commerce. We made great progress against our growth strategies this year. Premier Protein's household penetration reached 6.8%, gaining one percentage point this year. Our distribution continues to increase with brand TDPs of 9% sequentially and 26% for the year. We now have an average of 6.7 items on shelf. We're pleased with the effectiveness of our sales and marketing activities and look forward to building on our success in 21. Our new products continue to excite both consumers and retailers. Our seasonal offering, Pumpkin Spice, drove strong velocities across both e-commerce and retail outlets. Our newest 30-gram flavor, Cinnamon Roll, shipped at the end of the fourth quarter and quickly sold out across e-commerce platforms. We also started to ship a new pack size, 12 count, to the mass channel at the end of the quarter. This is a major 21 initiative for us because larger pack sizes represent a quarter of the FDM category. We're excited to give consumers the option to buy larger packs anywhere they shop, and early results are promising. Diametize had a fantastic quarter of 57% domestically with growth across all channels. Our new products, ISO 100 Fruity and Cocoa Pebbles, have vastly exceeded our expectations, becoming the number three and number five flavors within the ISO 100 line. We are quickly gaining distribution across all channels on these exciting new products. Our international business was relatively flat due to COVID, but showed strong sequential improvement, up 50% versus last quarter. Premier shakes in Canada drove most of the gains, while Dymatize and Powerbar continue to be challenged within the global specialty channel. Our supply chain performed well all year, executing best-in-class service in the midst of unexpected volatility. Our frontline employees in our Germany plant and within our logistics and co-manufacturing network were invaluable to our success. Our fifth and newest co-manufacturer is performing well, and our Shake Network remains well-positioned to support our growth plans. Now to our outlook. As you saw in yesterday's press release, we expect fiscal 21 net sales to grow 8% to 13% and adjusted EBITDA to grow between 5% and 10%. This guidance is consistent with our long-term algorithm of 10% to 12% net sales growth at 18% to 20% EBITDA margins. EBITDA growth lags sales growth because we are choosing to invest in brand building and our commodity and logistics costs are running higher year over year. Despite the higher costs, we are prioritizing driving share in a growing market. We believe now is the time to bring new households into the category rather than maximizing immediate margin. We will do that through increased strategic media and promotional spending, stronger creative, execution of Premier Protein's upsize initiative, and continued flavor expansion. As a result of the increased investment, we expect the timing of EBITDA growth to be entirely in the back half. This is due to strong Q2 media spend, raw material and logistics headwinds in the front half, and lapping COVID demand shifts. Overall, I'm very confident in our expansion plans for 2021 as we increase investments, grow our brand awareness, and continue to generate strong cash flow. The RTB and powder categories have stabilized and are growing at pre-COVID levels. Our household penetration is increasing. We are gaining significant distribution on both existing and new products. Our marketing and promotional strategies are working, and our supply chain is is well positioned to support our growth. Although we continue to face challenges with COVID, I continue to be energized by our potential and our long runway for growth. I will now turn the call over to Paul.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Darcy, and good morning, everyone. Net sales for the quarter was $282.6 million, up 32%. Adjusted EBITDA was $56.7 million, up 22.5%, and EBITDA margin was 20.1%. Premier protein net sales increased 37%, with RTD shake net sales up 40%. Fourth quarter results benefited from favorable trade inventory changes in both 2019 and 2020. Excluding these items, our underlying growth largely tracked consumption growth of 20%, driven by distribution gains for both existing and new products and incremental promotional activity. We continue to expect this brand to grow double digits, aided by gains in distribution and investments in promotions and marketing. Diamantized net sales grew 15% this quarter, driven by strong increases in e-commerce, club, and mass. International sales for both Diamantized and PowerBar improved sequentially, but remained challenged as a result of COVID. Turning back to consolidated results, gross profit of $90 million increased 17% this quarter, with gross profit margin declining 400 basis points to 31.8%. The margin decline was related to anticipated higher input cost, primarily milk-based proteins, and incremental promotional activity. SG&A expenses were flat compared to prior year, but declined 390 basis points as a percentage of net sales to 12.5%. Higher employee-related expenses of $3 million and incremental public company costs of $1.8 million were partially offset by lower IPO costs of $2.7 million. Marketing spend was flat compared to prior year. Turning to full-year 2020 results, net sales of $988 million grew 16% over the prior year, with gross profit of $338 million growing 8%. Gross profit margins declined 230 basis points to 34.2%, reflecting higher input costs and incremental promotional activity. SG&A's percentage of net sales was 15.4%. Adjusted EBITDA of $197.2 million was relatively flat compared to prior year, with margins declining 320 basis points to 20%, and included 8.7 million of incremental public company costs. Before reviewing our outlook, I would like to make a few comments on cash flow and liquidity. We had a strong fourth quarter for cash flow, generating 70 million from operations and 97 million for the year. We repaid 25 million revolver borrowings in the quarter, leaving us with 49 million of cash on hand and 170 million available under our revolver at quarter end. As of September 30, net debt was $655 million and net leverage was 3.3 times. Since the IPO, we have reduced net debt by $82 million. We expect to reach net leverage of three times in fiscal 2021. We recently announced a $60 million stock repurchase authorization and will continue to utilize our asset allocation decisions to enhance long-term shareholder value. Turning to our outlook, we expect fiscal 2020 net sales of $1.07 to $1.12 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $207 to $217 million. The midpoint of our outlook implies double-digit top-line growth and EBITDA margins above 19%, both of which are in line with our long-term algorithm. Our EBITDA growth is expected to lag our top-line growth as we invest behind our brands and experience input cost inflation, the latter of which is expected to be most impactful in the first half and moderate in the second half. Similar to 2020, we expect promotional activity and advertising investments to peak in the second quarter and meaningfully pressure margins. These timing items combined with COVID's impact on our fiscal 2020 quarterly gating is expected to result in high single-digit sales growth in the first half and mid-teens growth in the second half. In addition, our EBITDA growth is expected to be entirely in the second half. Heading into the first quarter, we expect our sales growth rate to moderate in line with our long-term algorithm. Consistent with past first quarters, we expect to benefit from shipments occurring ahead of consumption for premier protein shakes as retailers build inventories to support January promotions. We expect our first half quarterly EBITDA pacing to closely track 2020. Last, giving consideration of both Bellring Inc's taxes and distributions to Pulse Holdings, Bellring's total income tax cash outflows are expected to be approximately $34 million in 2021. We expect the cash interest expense to be approximately $40 million. With that, I would like to turn the call back over to the operator for questions.

speaker
Operator

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, you may do so by pressing star, then the number 1 on your telephone keypad. Again, that is star 1 if you would like to ask a question. Your first question is from Ken Goldman of J.P. Morgan.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Hey, good morning. Thank you. I'm wondering if you could explain a little bit the reasoning behind the share buyback that you authorized lately. Is there anything to read into that other than why companies do share buybacks in general? Because it's sometimes a good use of capital. I think there's some speculation that maybe you'd be looking to buy from a particular large holder of Bellring. But I'm just wondering if you could elaborate that a little bit, because it has created some market speculation.

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, good morning, Ken. This was simply a tactical move to give us flexibility in a volatile market. So we have great, as you guys know, we have great organic growth and we generate strong cash flow. So it just seems prudent to keep all uses of cash open.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Okay. And then, thank you for that. My follow-up would be, I just wanted to make sure I heard you correctly on the 1Q sales statement. growth number? I think you said it should be within your long term range. So are you looking for somewhere between 10 to 12% in that first quarter? And does that account for I'm sure it does. But just to make sure all of the puts and takes between difficult comparisons on shipments, maybe any reversal of four cues ship in just wanted to make sure I'm getting all that correct.

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, the context was that obviously we had higher growth in this last quarter, and, yes, our Q1 will be more in line with our long-term algorithm. Expect more of it on the higher side.

speaker
Jennifer Meyer
Investor Relations

Perfect. Glad I asked. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Your next question is from Andrew Lazar of Barclays.

speaker
Andrew Lazar

Good morning, everybody.

speaker
Ken Zaslow

Good morning.

speaker
Andrew Lazar

I wanted to dig into the sales guidance a little bit further. I mean, you expected first half sales growth, high single digits, second half mid-teens. If we take the low end of both of those ranges, I think it gives us full-year sales growth at kind of roughly the midpoint of your full-year guidance. So that's what I'm getting at is the low end gets you to sort of the midpoint. So it would seem to build in some level of conservatism, which I think in light of, you know, current dynamics and all the uncertainties make sense. So I just wanted to get a sense from you, Darcy, on, you know, how you're thinking about the sales growth rate for the year in sort of a prudent way. And if that's what gives you, or basically what gives you the confidence to provide a full year sales outlook, you know, given all the uncertainty would be the first one.

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

So, yes, that map is correct, and that's where we see the year ending. I think that we want to be conservative. Obviously, there's a lot of unknowns, but we have a lot of things going for us. Obviously, we have expanded. We have line of sight to resets in major accounts, as well as, We have new products that are hitting that are, you know, early look are performing well. We're also lapping distribution gains from last year. And we are increasing our brand building, specifically our advertising, which we saw worked last year, and now we're just extending the time. So we're feeling good about the top line and hitting that number.

speaker
Andrew Lazar

Got it. Thanks for that. And then it's a good segue into the next question, which is really just I don't know how specific you can get on some of the outcome of some of the shelf resets and such, but maybe any color, a little more detail on maybe how much space you've gained or whether you think that was incremental to the category or if it came from sort of other players or other subcategories. Just trying to get a little more color on that, depending on what you can share. Thank you. Sure.

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, so as I said last quarter, we gained in Q4, we gained about 9% PDPs, and it was mostly food accounts, whereas coming into Q1, there are major resets, so a large mass account as well as clubs. So in those, they're resetting now, started at the beginning of November, and so you can go into stores and see it. We actually, we were, from a category standpoint, the category space generally stayed the same. It looks like there is some gains in liquid and powders at the expense of bars, but it is nominal. From a bell ring standpoint, we gained a fair amount. So we will more than double our space at a major mass account. So it's pretty exciting. And we gained with Premier primarily, but also with Dymatize. What was also nice is we gained across forms. So predominantly we gained in shakes, as expected, but we also got powder in there, which is nice. And we're seeing really good gains on our powder business across food accounts. So that's nice to see. Great.

speaker
Andrew Lazar

Thanks so much.

speaker
Operator

Your next question is from John Baumgardner of Wells Fargo.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Good morning. Thanks for the question. Darcy, just hoping you could expand a bit on the marketing plan for fiscal 21. You're coming off a year of significant investment, so any thoughts on the ROI would be great. And then looking ahead, what's sort of contemplated for F21 year-on-year, and how are you expecting the spend to tilt between advertising, promo, or other merchandising?

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. So we were really pleased with our 2020 results from an advertising standpoint. Our main goal of the advertising was to increase penetration, and we hit our goal, our annual goal. We actually hit it about mid-year, and then as well as brand awareness, et cetera. So for 21, the strategy is, you know, basically do more of what was working. So we're going to continue to spend in both TV and digital. We're going to expand the time. So we felt like we had the right level of spend in Q2, which, again, is new year, new you for us. So the major time when new households come into the category will extend from four months to about seven months. And then we'll be increasing spend in e-commerce. and then display and store, so promo, and then obviously we're also expanding space. So I would say what is new from a marketing standpoint is our focus on buy rate. So we're focused on both households as well as buy rate, so that's where the upsizing comes in and then the increase in promo. So I would say similar strategy from an advertising standpoint, but just more of it.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Okay, thanks for that. And then just to follow up on the innovation front, I guess our sense is that your pipeline is already fairly substantial for the next few years, and you mentioned some of the new flavors. But as COVID persists and you see consumers gravitating towards more functional products, the Ensure, the Boost, How did that inform your views on the ability for Premier to sort of go to different need states? I mean, can that brand travel, or do you think you have to grow through M&A if you're going to kind of branch out to other functional types of areas? Thank you.

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. This is where I think Premier has a ton of advantage. I mean, one of the key differences about the Premier protein brand versus other I would say any other brand in the category is its ability to travel. So whereas many of the other brands are strong within their need state, they may be a weight management brand, they may be an adult nutrition brand or a sports nutrition brand. What Premier does is it fits squarely in that everyday nutrition, but it sources volume from all of the others. So it gives us tremendous room to innovate and kind of lean into those spaces. And those are some of the areas that we're looking into. I mean, I think I talked about how COVID has really uncovered a trend that was already going on in the category around proactive health. And I think you're starting to see immunity claims across across categories in the store, but specifically in our area. You'll see that later in the year on Premier. But we'll start leaning into those ways to innovate. But obviously, M&A, we'll lean into M&A in any area that we feel Premier can't go.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Darcy. Thanks for your time.

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Your next question is from Brian Holland of DA Davidson.

speaker
Brian Holland

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. I wanted to ask a follow-up on Andrew's question about shelf space and how that's evolved, and specifically looking at private label.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

I think we've seen in the past that, you know, whether following some fast or after that Atkins, more recently, I was wondering if you're seeing them sort of mimic you on the 30-gram shake side,

speaker
Brian Holland

how you're seeing that evolve, any new products there, and maybe how you're competing against that, and maybe more broadly, how's that playing out? What do you think that says about where you are as far as being on trend?

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Because I think it's fine if private label's coming in, but if that's where the growth is in private label, it probably speaks to your leadership.

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, so private label represents about 8% of RTDs, and it's up about 9%. That is pretty consistent. It's up a little bit more this quarter, but nothing dramatic. The vast majority of that in track channels, so that's just in track channels. The vast majority of that is in Walmart. And so we really, Premier has pretty low interaction with overall private label. We're about a 55% interaction index, so pretty low. You know, over the years, So because Equate is such a strong brand in private labels, they have products that compete in every single need state. So about two years ago, they launched a Premier Fighter. It really has not affected our business very much. And so I think that's a good example of a strong private label, but has has really not affected our business. And so I think that as we look, Oh, and new, you asked about new entrance. Um, yeah. So Sam's recently launched a, uh, a 30, kind of a 30 gram fighter. Um, again, we're watching it, but again, based on equate, uh, we really think that it, you know, we don't think that it will have a big impact on our business.

speaker
Brian Holland

Appreciate the call, Darcy.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Separately, a fair amount of cost inflation obviously hitting gross margin. It would appear as though you're limited on price as a total offset as you look to drive household penetration. So I'm wondering what you're looking at or what you're currently doing on the supply chain side to maybe help manage or smooth out some of this raw material and logistics pressures that you're seeing going forward.

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Do you want me to take it? I'll take this, Paul, and then you can add on as you see fit. So, yeah, it's a conscious decision to not take price. We basically are seeing increases more in the front half than we are in the back half as we're – as we're seeing kind of a spike in milk protein costs as well as some logistic costs from COVID. So we are actively working on cost-out programs, both this year as well as we started it last year. We're doing it this year, and we're even expanding. We already have line of sight to projects that we're working on for 22 and beyond. But I think because we see the cost increases hitting mostly in the front half and kind of subsiding in the back half and our focus on market share and brand building, we think, you know, we can weather this in kind of the first half. The one thing I'll say is we're watching it. You know, I mean, if If our calculus isn't correct and commodity prices increase more than expected, we took price February of 19, and the organization executed well. Elasticity was as expected. So we can always make that decision, and we are monitoring it closely.

speaker
Operator

We'll go to our next question, who is Chris Groh of Stiefel.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Hi, good morning. Good morning. Hi. I just wanted to ask a question first on the gross margin, follow a little bit on Brian's question, but just to understand, you had two major factors weigh on the gross margin sequentially, and year-over-year, I guess. You had some promotional rebuild, as well as input cost inflation. Is it possible to just aggregate that? And more importantly, I'm just trying to understand, how much is ongoing and how much pressure, especially from inflation, we could see in the first half of the year? Yeah, Chris, your question I assume is on Q4 margins specifically? Yes. So from a Q4 perspective, you're right, there's two major items that were impacting margins, promotional activity and raw materials. Raw materials was a bit more impactful than promotion. In fact, the fourth quarter was our highest impact from raw materials versus last year, so it's hitting a peak. As we go into next year, Darcy highlighted that, and we've highlighted obviously in our prepared remarks and earnings release that We do expect raw material prices to impact us primarily in the first half with the most impact in the first quarter. Keep in mind that last year in the first quarter, protein prices were just starting to rise, so we had some favorability that as the cost got higher in the rest of the year, so we're at a little bit more of a headwind in the first quarter. But really, it's the first half that takes the brunt of the impact. It's very modest in the rest of the year, but it starts off highest in the first quarter and kind of gets better as we go through the year. Okay. I had just one other question, perhaps for Darcy. In relation to the category growth rate, in particular where you operate, and I'm thinking particularly in liquids, do you expect to see a growth profile much like you saw in 2020? Although we've seen an uptick in growth for the category, is it more like where we exited fiscal 2020 as we look ahead to fiscal 2021? Just trying to get a level setting where the category shakes off for the year.

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, so historical growth rates for the category, about 5%. We're a little bit above that right now, and obviously that dipped during Q3 of last year. But, yeah, I expect it to go back to historical, so about 5%. It's been very steady. So in the supplemental debt that we put out, We added a slide on the category that very clearly shows you the COVID stock up, the deload, and then just how steady the category has been back to pre-COVID level. So I expect that to continue. Obviously, there can be some bumps depending on lockdowns, et cetera. But overall, I think it'll come back to it'll be consistent with where it has been for the last three months.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Okay, that chart was helpful, so thank you for that. Thanks for your time this morning. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Your next question is from David Palmer of Evercore ISI.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks. Just a question on some of the dynamics we can see just in the measure channels, which I know is highly imperfect, but just from some of the standpoint that you're talking about with the immunity claims and the one player like Ensure that it's is doing well in the measure channels it seems to be positioned against certain claims but also positioned against older demographics and they may be benefiting from covid in certain unique ways and perhaps you're going to go after those need states a little bit more with some of your messaging But then with regard to some of your coverage, one of the beauties of your brand is it covers different need states, and you market against those. And post-COVID, weight management and on-the-go nutrition, particularly at breakfast, will be back. And I'm wondering how much of a headwind you think you have from COVID on those need states such that, you know, frankly, you'll just get some easy wins in the second half of your fiscal year. And I'll leave it there. Thanks.

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, so it's a good point of making sure that we look at what was going on last year because it was from quarter to quarter, it was very different. So when we look at last year and then Q4 sort of got back to normal. So those are exactly what we are expecting. You're absolutely right that insurer has been benefiting, benefiting probably the most in our category from COVID. So, I mean, they will obviously have – some pretty hard comps. But like I said before, the beauty of the Premier brand is, first of all, we market more generally. We talk about a quick, easy, delicious, healthy breakfast. which honestly can travel across all need states. And so we believe that our marketing, which we've tested in market, obviously last year, as well as tested quantitatively, that it's hitting on all those need states. And so we think we'll make up some ground and source some volume from several of them.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Just to follow up on that, do you think you've lost a chunk of business because there's less of that time-compressed, on-the-go parent who maybe is the worker that needs to grab something and go? Have you done any consumer research that shows how much you've lost on that need statement?

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we have lost on that needs date. So the on-the-go, the quick breakfast, I think what's happening, though, is we're over-indexing on the at-home. So it's making up for it. So when we return to normal, I think that what will be – what I don't have a perfect sense of is – do we keep that over index at home because people start getting used to having it as a snack in the middle of the day as well as breakfast? And then do we add the on the go? So then making it, you know, getting back those other needs states or does it swap? What I'm confident on is that we have new products, we have new distribution, we have all of these other building blocks that are working for us, but that's a piece that we'll honestly have to just watch.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Great. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Bill Chappell of Truist Securities.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks. Good morning. Good morning. Hey, Darcy, just Help us understand, I appreciate that you gave full-year guidance in a lot of uncertainty, but what have you seen over the past three months in terms of need states bouncing back or just trends? And just trying to understand how you're looking or how you're building that guidance, especially as we get to April, May, June, and there's so much uncertainty of what's open and not open. I mean, is it assuming some need states Bounce back. Is it and I guess so two questions. One, what did you see over the past three months in terms of progression of sales from the different need states? And two, how did you build out the forecast for next year with the assumption of that some need states will come back at certain months?

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, so we assumed that the category, you know, stayed at kind of historical levels, so that the category continues to grow around, you know, low single digits. So that was part of our assumptions. Regarding needs dates, I would say that we don't necessarily build our forecast like that. So I think that we are covered because we source volume from kind of all of them. We're obviously right in the everyday nutrition piece, but we source volume from the rest. I think how we build our forecast is we take the assumption we use building blocks so we take the assumption of the category growth rate um then we add on new distribution new products um laughing the you know prior year new distribution so that's where um we are you know getting a bulk of our our growth and that's where we come up with um what our guidance was got it i guess so just to clarify like if you looked at at uh

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

July, August, September. Was the sale, were the trends pretty similar throughout? Or, I mean, did you start to see, there's been some thought that as we're coming out of the pandemic, people are tired of having the extra 10 pounds. They want to be a little more active. And so there should be a, you know, migration more to active nutrition. So did you see things start to accelerate towards the end of the quarter?

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

It was very stable. So, I mean, again, like I kind of urge you to go to that slide on the supplemental because it is shockingly stable. It threw out the entire – so basically after we rebounded, they had that deload in Q3. Q4 in the category was – was pretty flat. I mean, some small changes, but overall, very flat.

speaker
Paul Rhone
Chief Financial Officer

Great. Thanks so much for the color.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Ken Zaslow of Bank of Montreal.

speaker
Ken Zaslow

Hey, good morning, everyone.

speaker
Operator

Good morning.

speaker
Ken Zaslow

Good morning. Can I ask a different line of questioning? What do you guys think about the co-packing capacity out there? Are there constraints to that? Doesn't that limit the number of entrants, and have you seen that change?

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, there absolutely are constraints out there. It has changed. So as supply and demand, the co-packers have added capacity, mostly aligned here or there. Obviously, we have a new co-manufacturer on the East Coast, so that added capacity. So I would say that it's not as limited as it once was. However, Other than the co-manufacturer we added, there are no new players. It's just a matter of the existing players adding a line here or there.

speaker
Ken Zaslow

Okay. And then my second question is, as you look through your supply chain, this has given a lot of people an examination of, okay, what we could do differently, how we could do it. This is the COVID shock, however you want to call it. What have you learned? from the supply chain, is there opportunities for you to become more efficient and actually gain a couple margin points here and there as you exit this? Or is this something, you know, I know you've never been a real margin story, it's a top line story, but can you give us any insight into that?

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we've been digging into our supply chain for sure, as I know most companies are, especially because we we're facing commodity cost increases, and we wanted to drive the top line, so we were doing whatever we can to offset some of those increases. I mean, just think of in the past, like you said, we've been a top-line story, so we haven't dug in deep. So we're looking at network design to make that more efficient. I mean, a big part of expanding our Coman network was to put a location on the East Coast which helps with our network design. But we're looking at everything from packaging to the way we buy, to where we buy, to how we ship. I mean, across the board, we're evaluating, and we're making good inroads on that to offset some of these cost increases.

speaker
Ken Zaslow

Do you think they're going to be permanent, or are we going to see a noticeable change or a change of any sort? I'm not talking about next year. I'm just talking about over the next couple of years.

speaker
Darcy Davenport
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think that right now it's covered up by the commodity increases, honestly. If we hadn't had some of these, it would be larger. But those will stay. Obviously, these cost-out initiatives are permanent. So we'll see those, and they'll be more evident as the commodity prices decrease. Great.

speaker
Ken Zaslow

Look forward to seeing it. Thank you very much. Stay safe. You too.

speaker
Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of our allotted time for questions. Thank you for joining. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

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