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spk01: Welcome to the Peabody second quarter earnings call. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. At that time, I will instruct everyone on how to participate. And at this time, I would now like to turn the conference over to Alice Theranos, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
spk00: Good morning, and thank you for joining Peabody's earnings call for the second quarter of 2022. With me today are President and CEO Jim Grech and CFO Mark Furbeck. Within the earnings release, you'll find our statement on forward-looking information, as well as the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. We encourage you to consider the risk factors referenced there, along with our public filings with the SEC. I'll now turn the call over to Jim.
spk04: Thanks, Alice, and good morning, everyone. In the second quarter, our diversified assets delivered strong results, generating free cash flow of over $340 million and adjusted EBITDA of $578 million, our highest in more than a decade, despite ongoing weather and logistical challenges. We continue to expect a strong second half with higher projected volumes compared to the first half of the year in all our segments and markets although volatile, supporting continued high prices. During the quarter, we delivered increased sales volumes in every segment except the PRB, capturing strong market prices, which resulted in higher margins. With cash generated, we continue to strengthen our balance sheet by advancing our debt reduction strategy with voluntary repurchases, bringing us closer to eliminating all senior secured debt, which will allow us greater financial flexibility in the future. Before I expand on the quarter, I would like to sincerely thank our global employees for their continued focus on working safely and efficiently, which has been truly remarkable given the adverse weather and logistics challenges we have been facing. Without the dedication of our talented workforce, we would not have had the outstanding second quarter results we are reporting today. Now, turning to global coal markets. Across the globe, all coal price indices remain at elevated levels representing a dynamic demand that continues to test the ability of supply in most of our market segments. The outlook for all our operating segments continues to be favorable with the constrained base serving a market that is reallocating the scarce availability of coal. Seaborne coal markets are currently facing disruption resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while coal supply in Australia continues to be challenged by weather and staff absenteeism primarily as a result of continued COVID impacts, and in the U.S., coal exports continue to be challenged by eastern rail logistics issues. Seaborne thermal prices remain near record levels, as around the globe, coal fuel generation is called upon for energy security and reliability. High natural gas prices are providing strong economic incentives for generators to maximize coal generation. Evidence of this is the restart of available coal fuel generation in Europe. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is also impacting markets. The cessation of coal imports from Russia by European countries is creating the need to source from alternative locations, including Australia and the U.S. Furthermore, reduced Russian gas pipeline flows into Europe and an LNG terminal outage in the U.S. are further challenging international gas supply. Actions to ration gas supply in preparation for the European winter including the recent 15% reduction of use EU agreement, further support coal fuel generation. Compounding these issues, Australian supply continues to be challenged by historically high levels of rainfall, with most recent supply interruptions associated with heavy July rain. And in the U.S., rail performance is limiting export volume, further constraining near-term supply. Overall, global thermal coal markets remain robust, with pricing at historical record levels that is incentivizing high-energy coal to markets where it provides the most value. Within the seaborne metallurgical market, anticipated steel output for July to September has been tripped in North Asia and Europe as a result of falling steel prices and high distributor inventories. There are signs of weakening end-user demand due to falling economic confidence in the face of increasing inflationary pressures globally. As steelmakers introduce output production cuts, we have seen a weakening of incremental metagogical coal demand. Moving forward and offset to some of this impact are steelmakers in Atlantic markets switching away from Russian coal imports and seeking supply from other regions such as Australia, U.S., and Canada, particularly for PCI coals. Robust thermal coal prices are above met coal prices, which is creating switching opportunities for European buyers who can overcome technical barriers. And this dynamic can be viewed as a positive for the met coal market balance in the coming months. While energy shortages and inflationary concerns in some markets present a risk to near-term industrial activity, the underlying market fundamentals remain constructive as metallurgical coal supply remains static. In the United States, the coal markets continue to be tight as supply remains constrained. Transportation issues linger in the PRB, and demand for coal has increased to meet summer electricity demand. Overall, electricity demand increased more than 4% year-over-year, positively impacted by weather and economic activity. Year-to-date, electricity generation from thermal coal has declined year-over-year due to coal conservation by utilities to build coal stocks, given concerns with rail performance. U.S. natural gas prices remain elevated, at levels not seen since 2008, with weather driving market tightness. And this is occurring even with a higher supply as a result of increased production and an LNG terminal outage keeping more gas in the domestic market. Across the U.S., we are seeing growing caution regarding the pace of the energy transition, value of dispatchable capacity. Evidence of this are announcements of coal plant retirements being delayed with most utilities citing grid reliability concerns or delayed renewable projects. This speaks to continued strong coal demand for U.S. coals. Overall, we anticipate continued near-term market volatility as coal demand fluctuates and supply remains constrained across the globe. A diversified platform is positioned to participate in each of these markets, optimizing results by managing the needs of our diversified customer base. Now, turning to the second quarter. Our second quarter results were strong despite several external factors at our operations that are delaying plans to deliver increased production volumes across our platform. We have included the impact of these factors and other adjustments in our updated second half guidance, which indicates lower results for the third quarter with improvements in the fourth quarter. In our seaborne thermal segment, the impact of heavy rain and COVID-related staffing shortages continue to hinder our recovery plans to recapture full year production volumes at Wolfenjohn and Wambo. In early July, a La Nina record flooding event with more than seven inches of rain intensified productivity challenges. This event resulted in interruptions to our Wambo operations and rail services, further reducing production expectations as the mines recover from flooding. We drew down inventory to deliver second quarter sales in line with guidance. However, we've had to update second half guidance to reflect lower sales volumes, additional royalties, and other costs in the third quarter as the mines recover from these events. Our Seabourn Met segment is on track to deliver higher volumes and deliver on guidance as the year progresses. The CMJV delivered higher volumes and had its first shipments from Morvale South. At Metropolitan, we completed a longwall move in our position for higher volumes in the second half. At Shoal Creek, we transitioned to the J2 longwall panel, following production challenges in the J1 panel, and we project the mine to deliver higher volumes in the second half. Outside of our operating segment, our 50% ownership share of Middlemount benefited from strong metallurgical market dynamics, delivering nearly 400,000 attributable tons in the second quarter. Production here was also impacted by severe rains and COVID absenteeism during the quarter, which is also expected to impact third quarter production. In the PRV, further degradation of rail performance resulted in 2 million tons shipped less than nominated by customers in the first quarter and 4 million tons less in the second quarter. This has unfavorably impacted our costs as we continue to remove overburden at a higher production rate, which will benefit those operations in the future. For 2022, although we have 90 million tons under customer commitments, sales volumes will be dependent on rail performance. Our other U.S. thermal mines continue to deliver strong results with increasing volumes expected in the second half. Demand for our U.S. thermal products remains strong, and we continue to place new business with both existing and new customers. We continue to explore sales strategies that position Peabody to be the long-term producer of choice. providing our customers long-term supply security and capturing strong prices. In the PRV for 2023, we have approximately 68 million tons priced at $13.28 a ton, with an average BTU of 8,600, and our remaining uncommitted volumes are of the higher quality 8,800 BTU coal. While our other U.S. thermal segment has 16.6 million tons priced at $46.80 a ton, for 2023 delivery. In the quarter, we also issued our ESG report, which laid out the steps we have taken to strengthen our commitments and to reposition ourselves to better support the ESG targets of our stakeholders. This includes a commitment to setting targets and developing programs to enhance our position as a champion of ESG practices. Finally, we continue to advance our three renewable efforts to pursue the development of utility-scale solar and battery storage on six tracts of previous coal mining land in Illinois and Indiana. We have finalized our management team and commenced site evaluations with our project developer, Tree Oak. Our vision for the future is simple. We want to continue to strengthen our position as a coal producer of choice. We will do this by maintaining financial strength reliably delivering a diversity of products to support our customers' needs, practicing operational excellence, and championing ESG practices. This will allow us to be resilient in all cycles and to grow with our stakeholders. We are progressing this vision through multiple strategic initiatives. In our MET platform, in addition to completing development of Moorville South to improve quality and extend life at the CMJV, We continue to assess development of 70 million tons of southern reserves at North Gunyella. And in our seaborne thermal platform, we are extending the life of Longbow Underground with further long wall development. In the U.S., we continue to implement sales strategies and plans to capture incremental volumes and to give us flexibility in our mine plans to meet changing customer demands. Some examples of these activities are expansion into new areas at our wild boar complex in the Midwest, and additional mining units at Francisco and Great Gateway. And most importantly, we remain focused on the financial strength of the balance sheet with further debt repayments. I'll now turn things over to Mark to cover the financial details.
spk07: Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. In the second quarter, we recorded net income attributable to common shareholders of $410 million, or $2.54 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA of $578 million. nearly five times the prior year result. We generated free cash flow of $342 million, ending the quarter with more cash than debt for the first time as a public company. Second quarter revenue was $1.3 billion, an 83% increase from the prior year, as our diversified products continue to realize substantially higher prices, with premium Australian thermal coal doing particularly well, recently achieving prices more than double premium hard-coking coal. These terrific prices result in higher sales price sensitive costs, and together with fuel costs and other inflationary pressures, higher overburden removal in the PRB and the Shoal Creek transition to the J2 longwall panel, costs were higher than the prior year. Turning now to the second quarter segment results. Seabourn Thermal generated $177 million of EBITDA, nearly double first quarter results. due to higher realized prices and additional export sales, resulting in 50% EBITDA margins. The segment exported 2.2 million tons, 400,000 higher than the first quarter. The 143 per ton average realized export price was $24 higher than the first quarter, as index-linked prices were partially offset by fixed-price sales and hedged tons. Second quarter costs were impacted by higher sales price sensitive costs and fuel prices. Included in the Seabourn thermal segment is the Wilpin Young line, which shipped 3.3 million tons, including 1.5 million export tons. Wilpin Young realized an average sales price of $85 per ton, 70% higher than the prior quarter, due to stronger international prices and a higher mix of export tons. Wilpin Young recorded 170 million of adjusted EBITDA for the quarter and had over 200 million of cash at June 30th. The Seaboard Met segment generated 300 million of EBITDA, more than 100 million higher than the first quarter, as average realized prices of 331 per ton compared favorably to cost of 145, resulting in 56% EBITDA margins. The segment sold 1.6 million tons, about 33% more than the prior quarter, as higher volume from the CMJV offset lower than expected production at Shoal Creek. Cost per ton increased as a result of additional sales price-sensitive costs, Shoal Creek transition costs, and higher fuel and other commodity prices. In the U.S., our thermal mines delivered 60 million of EBITDA. The PRB shipped 18.5 million tons, about 2 million tons less than the first quarter, as rail service continued to hamper shipments to customers, with only 82% of customer nominations met in the quarter. Costs increased compared to the first quarter, attributable to additional overburden removal in the absence of available rail, as well as higher fuel prices, partially offset by lower contractor costs. The higher overburden removal relative to tons shipped has driven up first half costs, and we'll start to benefit from that as we ship some of the uncovered coal to customers in the second half of this year. The other U.S. thermal mines shipped 4.4 million tons as the Midwest mines increased sales 400,000 tons compared to the first quarter, and the segment reported higher EBITDA margins of 28%. Costs increased due to higher fuel and other commodity costs, partially offset by one-time first quarter costs. Now, a quick look at financing items. At June 30, we had $1.1 billion of cash and cash equivalents, $74 million more than total debt. During the second quarter, we retired another $51 million of secured debt. Subsequent to June 30, we retired an additional $116 million, including $94 million of Wilpin Young Senior Notes pursuant to an offer that was upsized from the original $50 million offer, bringing year-to-date debt repayments to $209 million. Immediately upon closing the Wilpen Young Senior Notes offer, we launched a reciprocal offer to the Wilpen Young term loan holders for an additional $44 million, which we expect to close in a little less than a month. Now let's turn to our full year outlook. As Jim mentioned, we have updated second half guidance to account for weather impacts on our Australian mine plans, higher sales price sensitive costs, and higher fuel and other commodity prices. In the seaborne thermal segment, to account for the lost productivity from severe rains, we lowered full year expectations by 1 to 1.3 million tons. We increased expected costs by $8 per ton to reflect higher sales price sensitive costs, fuel prices, and lower production. We expect strong second half results from the segment based on 2.3 million export tons priced on average at 140 and about 2.4 million unpriced tons, including 800,000 tons, which are expected to price at Newcastle benchmark levels, and 1.6 million tons expected to price in line with API 5 coal due to current coal quality and market conditions. Seabourn metallurgical volume is expected to be a bit higher than previous guidance, and we narrowed the range by increasing the lower end by 300,000 tons. Higher second-half volumes are anticipated due to higher production at the Metropolitan, Moorville South, and Shoal Creek mines. With essentially all second-half tons unpriced, the current product mix is expected to achieve 75% to 80% of the premium hard coking coal benchmark. Costs per ton for the full year have increased $15, primarily as a result of the recently announced highly progressive Queensland royalty regime, which took effect July 1st and higher fuel prices. In the PRB, we have experienced increasingly poor rail service. We shipped 89% of customer nominations in the first quarter, only 82% in the second quarter, and July month to date is down to 77%. Based on current rail performance, we've lowered full year sales volume by 5 to 8 million tons. PRB costs for the full year have been raised about $1.25 as a result of the lower expected volume, higher fuel costs, and general inflationary pressures. Other U.S. thermal volume was raised 500,000 tons to 18.5 or 19.5 million tons, while costs were increased $4 to reflect higher fuel, maintenance, and other costs to achieve higher volumes. Essentially, all remaining U.S. thermal tons are priced and committed, but sales continue to be dependent on rail availability. With these updates, we expect a second half with strong margins and cash flows. Lastly, we will maintain our disciplined approach to capital allocation using free cash flow to continue repaying secured debt and cash collateralized reclamation obligations.
spk06: I'd now like to turn the call over for questions. Operator?
spk01: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question today, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach your equipment. Again, please press star one to ask a question. And we'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions. And we'll take our first question from Lucas Pipes, B. Riley Securities.
spk03: Thank you so much. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to first ask a bit about North Canela and specifically, there was the new royalty regime announced here a month ago or so for Queensland. And if I kind of think back to prior quarters and questions around capital returns, North Canela sounds like it factored into this. So with the changes on the royalty side, is this organic project maybe moving further down the priority list and speedier and greater capital returns that may be even more attractive than they already were? Thank you very much for your perspective.
spk04: Yeah, so on North Guinea, you talked about the new royalty regime in Queensland, and just a couple quick comments on that. First, Lucas, is you know the our metropolitan mine is not affected by that because it's not in queensland it affects the cmjv and middle mount and of course north can yellow when brought back online so north can yellow tough is still a uh you know attractive option uh for organic growth probably our best organic growth opportunity that we have in the in the company and you know we're still uh doing work on the surface and a lot of engineering studies and evaluation with that project, which we have been doing throughout the year. So it's still a very high priority for us in the list of all of our projects that we're looking at as being financially attractive.
spk06: Okay. Okay. That's helpful.
spk03: I'll switch topics for now. So 2023 is obviously not far away anymore, and this is an understatement. Lots of movement on the pricing, both internationally but also domestically. You pointed to increased 2023 commitments, but can you give us an update of how much and what price your various products are committed and priced for 2023? what's left to sell, and that would really allow us to properly calibrate your earnings power, not just, you know, obviously we have the coming quarters here, but into next year, given the very significant pricing. Thank you.
spk04: Lucas, as far as what we have sold, you know, I've said in my comments in the PRB, we've got the 68 million tons sold at $13.28. And that's in the 8600 BTU. We still have, you know, all of our unsold PRB in 2023 is the 8800 quality coal. And on other thermal coal in the U.S., we've got 16.6 million tons sold at $46.80 a ton. And so, you know, we haven't given guidance yet as to our tonnages for next year. So we're not prepared to do that at this time. But that's what we have sold there. I will say that in the metallurgical markets, as far as interest for next year, we are getting interest from our customers for commitments now to sell metallurgical coal next year in greater quantities than we have sold to them this year. So, of course, those will probably come at index prices and doing those sales. But it is an interesting dynamic, since you're asking about 2023, In the metallurgical markets, we're getting customer interest to make commitments now for significantly increased tonnage amounts than what we sold to them this year.
spk03: That's very good to hear. And I'll ask one final question before turning it over. The international seaborne thermal coal markets, extremely robust, rare premium over met coal. Are you selling into that thermal coal market already? And would that also factor into what you just mentioned on 2023 met coal commitments? Thank you.
spk04: Lucas, when you talk about selling into those markets, are you talking about metallurgical coal being sold into those markets?
spk03: Correct, correct, correct, correct. Yes, yes. I want to make sure I understand your question. Yes, thank you. Yes, it's about switching met coal volumes into the C1 thermal coal markets.
spk04: Yeah, we've started looking at having that occurring into the third quarter and some of those sales mainly from our Shoal Creek mine. So as far as this year, what I referred to for next year was strictly metallurgical coal and interest for metallurgical coal buyers to be locking down tons for next year.
spk06: Okay.
spk03: All right. Well, I appreciate it. Best of luck. I'll jump back in queue for now.
spk01: Thank you. Next, we'll move on to Nathan Martin, Benchmark Company.
spk08: Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess I'll start. There was a headline this week, I think, that the Japanese annual contract is settling around $375 in metric funds. It would be great to get your thoughts around that, and then are you incorporating that value in any of your updated Seabourn thermal segment price guides? Thanks.
spk04: Nate, you know, obviously that's not the traditional, you know, we haven't had the traditional JRP settlement occurring this year. So what we've been doing is bilateral settlements. Negotiations are what we're undertaking. And so, you know, the results of anything that we have settled, Nate, is in the guidance already. There is a sensitivity to talking about prices on our side since the JRP isn't settled because we do have ongoing negotiations right now in these bilateral agreements. I guess I'd like to leave it as the prices that we have settled are in the guidance going forward, and we're still in active negotiations on other tons, so I prefer not to comment on prices while we're in active negotiations.
spk06: Okay, that's fair.
spk08: Maybe moving on to kind of Lucas's question, again, talk about crossover met into the thermal markets. Given kind of the unprecedented premium thermal prices are displaying over MET in today's market, what kind of opportunity do you think there could be there, maybe not only for Peabody but even globally? What kind of barriers to entry do you guys see to making that happen?
spk06: Thank you. Nate, I'll attempt to answer that.
spk04: And please, if I don't answer your question, just follow up so I make sure I do. When you say barriers to entry, the number one thing I think you look at is just technical, is the quality of the metallurgical coal, the volatile matter, the BTUs, the ash and the sulfur. What type of thermal markets can it go to? So not all metallurgical coals move move into thermal markets. So I'd say that's, you know, the number one thing to look at a cost, obviously. But then you get to can the coal actually be consumed in boilers? And so that's the issue. I think, you know, you mentioned something in barriers to entry and whether it's, you know, thermal coal or metallurgical coal, you know, the barriers to entry for incremental production or new production, I should say, is pretty high. And so, you know, there isn't any big more metallurgical coal projects coming online. And so as that coal goes into the thermal markets, what the tons that can, you know, it automatically makes the supply side less in the metallurgical markets, which at some time you'd hope would result in a quicker price rebound into those markets. So, you know, high barriers to entry for new supply. And, you know, the switching is very, very much dependent on the quality of the coal. Maybe one more thing I'd add.
spk07: Yeah, just wanted to add, you know, we're talking about switching from MET into thermal, and as Jim mentioned, there's a lot of technical barriers for that to happen. So on the margin, there's some tons that can go in there. But I don't want lost in the discussion. It's a great time for Peabody's diversified portfolio and the 8 to 9 million tons of seaborne thermal that we are selling at these great prices north of $400 per ton on the Newcastle level.
spk08: Yeah, no, Mark, I agree. Absolutely. That was kind of the genesis of my, my initial question around the 3 75 number that exploded out there this week. Obviously a record result of that comes to fruition. Um, Jim, yeah, I appreciate those thoughts. I mean, um, I guess I was also kind of thinking, you know, tonnage wise, maybe what's out there or, you know, are we going to see restrictions in the near term given, uh, you know, maybe some tonnage is already contracted. on the MET side so it could not participate in the thermal market or things like that.
spk04: Yeah, I'll just speak for our company. If we have commitments under contract, we're going to honor those commitments. So we just can't take all of our metallurgical coal and then switch it over to the thermal market. So really, you're talking about uncommitted tons or incremental tons that we can bring to market. And, you know, right now, again, that's mainly our Shoal Creek mine. We are looking some at our Australian mines and Metropolitan mine as one of them for some other sources of that ton. So I don't have a hard number for you at the moment, Nate, as to how many tons we're looking at because we're still evaluating that. Again, if we could just flip the coal into the thermal market, that'd be great. But we've got to find specific markets that can handle our coal quality. And so, you know, it takes a little bit of time to do that.
spk08: Totally understand. Very, very helpful, Jim. Maybe just one final thing. I think you guys mentioned about 264,000 tons of your hedged thermal coal, $84 sold during the quarter. Looks like you mentioned maybe a similar amount for 3Q anticipated. Can we just get an update on how many tons are left there and when you expect those to roll off? Appreciate it.
spk07: Yeah, Nate. We now have less than a million metric tons after the roll off of those Q2 hedges. They will roll off over the next 12 months.
spk05: FINISHING IN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT YEAR.
spk07: I WOULD LOOK AT THE ROLLOFF A LITTLE BIT HEAVIER IN THE SECOND HALF OF THAT, BUT MAYBE 425,000 TONS OVER THE NEXT HALF HERE IN THE SECOND HALF OF 22 AND ABOUT 5 TO 550,000 TONS IN THE FIRST HALF OF 23. SO 425 OVER THE SECOND HALF AND 500? 5 TO 550 IN THE SECOND HALF.
spk05: first half of next year. That's right.
spk06: Great. Thank you for those details, Mark. I'll leave it there. And best of luck to you guys in the second half. Thanks, Nate. Thank you, Nate.
spk01: Thank you. And next, we'll move on to David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets.
spk02: Great. Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I have a series of questions that are related actually to most of the questions that have already been asked. Just a little more detail on some of the topics that you've covered. First bucket, capital allocation. I was wondering if you could speak a little bit to a, you know, if anybody has a total debt reduction target specifically, if you could quantify that. That's my first question.
spk05: Yeah, good morning, David.
spk07: On capital allocation, as we said, everything we do is with a keen eye to increase shareholder value. And we've said for a while now that the repayment of that senior secured debt is the pathway to doing that's the first step. Since the start of 2021, we've repaid more than $625 million of debt. We expect to continue that course until we've eliminated the secured debt. We have about $600 million of that remaining. And once that's repaid, we'll then look to address the unfunded $320 million LLC facility that matures in 2024. That facility is used right now for non-cash collateral for the reclamation liabilities. That needs to be replaced as we continue to fund long-term reclamation liabilities.
spk02: Okay. And then on the North Grignola restart, I know it's still being evaluated. Is there a range? You know, historically, there was a range, and it was fairly wide. Is there a range that you can give us in terms of potential capital expenditures associated with the options you're looking at at North Grignola?
spk04: Yeah, Dave, we haven't settled on those numbers yet internally. It's still part of our evaluation. We're looking at the mine plan. So when we're ready to give that to you, Dave, we will. But it'd be premature for me to do that at this moment.
spk02: Okay. And then on the shareholder return side, any update on, you know, negotiations with surety bondholders regarding restrictions on buybacks and dividends?
spk07: Yeah. Just as a reminder, both our debt documents and the surety agreement prohibit shareholder returns at this point. We need to address the secured debt in the LC facility, which I spoke about earlier. That will position us to have further discussions with the surety providers. We're looking really to reach a long-term plan to fully fund our final reclamation obligations.
spk02: Okay, thanks. Now switching gears over to the market commentary and Peabody's position here. First of all, on the thermal, domestic thermal, thank you very much for the price for 2023. It's helpful for the PRB volumes that are committed and priced. Of that 68 million, I think 7 million were priced in the second quarter. And obviously, the overall price is an average of all the prices that we've seen as the contracts were layered in. My question is, what was the price for the 7 million tons of PRB coal that was committed in the second quarter for 2023 delivery?
spk06: Dave, we'll have to, I mean, we'll maybe have to catch that one up with you later.
spk04: I don't have that type of number with me, the specific number.
spk02: if you're asking for it. Sure. It doesn't have to be specific. I'm trying to get at what the current market is for 2023 contracts relative to that average, that 1325. Can you give us a framework as to, relatively speaking, how high it is relative to that 1325? I'm guessing it's higher.
spk04: Yeah, again, I'll use the same comment I used with some of the other coals. We're still in negotiations for other coals that we have there and Some of the coal we sold was the 8800, and the coal that we have left to sell is the 8800. So since we're still in negotiations, Dave, I'm just not going to comment on those prices right now.
spk02: Okay. No problem. And then just in terms of the approach to the volumes out of the Powder River Basin for 2023, assuming rail's fix themselves. What is, you know, a near-term, you know, maximum quarterly volume if everything goes well out of the PRB for Peabody? That's my first part of that question. And secondly, you know, is Peabody evaluating plans to increase volumes in the PRB in 2023? And would, you know, would Peabody spend capital to, you know, expand capacity in the PRB? That's it for me on that piece.
spk05: Yeah, David, you know, listen, we had to take our guidance on the PRB given the rail service.
spk07: We were, you know, our top end of our old guidance was 95 million tons. Certainly, the demand is there. Rail has been the confining factor to date. Assuming that rail is fixed and we're in regular conversations with rail providers and expect that to be fixed here as we go through the second half of this year and be back to full service levels next year. I would expect that we would be at those levels that we had in our original guidance. Certainly, demand continues to be strong with all the pressures on natural gas prices. Thermal is certainly attractive here. So, strong demand. I would say that without giving any guidance for 2023, as we're not prepared to do so, I would look at it as consistent with our original guidance for this year.
spk02: Okay. And is there capital expenditures that for incremental capacity additions in the PRB under evaluation? Are there capital expenditures under evaluation at this point?
spk07: Yeah, you know, if you look, we did increase those tonnages or planned tonnages this year from the prior year. Certainly did that in the Midwest as well. You know, there's certainly always under consideration how we can increase tonnage around the margins.
spk05: At this point, it's mostly equipment.
spk06: Okay. And then, sorry, I'm going on as long as my last one.
spk02: If the world stays where it is, obviously net back pricing is more attractive in the export market, I think even out of the PRB. I was wondering if you could just frame from a realistic perspective the order of magnitude of, you know, Peabody's domestic U.S. thermal that could shift into the global export markets in 2023.
spk06: Sorry, Dave, I want to make sure I understood your question.
spk04: Was the last part of it was how much of the U.S. MET could shift into the thermal markets? Was that the question?
spk02: Sorry, no, if I said MET, I apologize. What I was asking was how much realistically would Peabody export out of the U.S. on the thermal side, incremental in 2023 versus current, given where net back prices are now?
spk04: Yeah, well, in the U.S., There's a lot of assumptions there. You mentioned the rail. And our first commitment is to our existing contracts and our long-term customers. And to us at the moment, every ton that you shift to export is one you take away from a domestic customer that you're not shipping to. So we want to make sure that we are loyal and serving the needs of our base customers before we start shipping coal out of the country for commitments that we have already. The second part of that becomes, you know, is there port capacity and is there rail capacity available? And, you know, right now, there isn't incremental rail capacity available, and the ports are almost in the same situation. So, you know, it's something that we take a look at, Dave, but I, you know, if any substantial tons, I guess, is what you're getting at. I don't see that occurring for us. even though we'd take a look at it, but I don't see that being something that we'd be doing with our PRB for next year.
spk06: Okay, that's helpful. Thanks very much.
spk01: Thank you. And there are no further questions, so I would like to move the conference back over to Mr. Jim Gregg for any additional or closing remarks.
spk04: Yeah, thanks for everybody for joining us today. And again, as I said at the beginning, I'd especially like to thank our employees for remaining focused on safety and continuing to execute on our various initiatives. And also thanking our customers, investors, insurance providers, and our vendors for your continued support. Operator, that concludes our call.
spk01: Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. We do appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect.
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