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spk11: Good day and welcome to the Boyd Gaming first quarter 2021 conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing star then zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Josh Hirschberg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.
spk10: Thank you, Matt. Good afternoon, everyone.
spk09: Welcome to our first quarter conference call. Joining me on the call this afternoon is Keith Smith, our President and Chief Executive Officer. Our comments today will include statements that are forward-looking statements within the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. All forward-looking statements in our comments are as of today's date. We undertake no obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements. There are certain risks and uncertainties, including those disclosed in our filings with the SEC, that may impact our results. During our call today, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. For a complete reconciliation of historical non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures, please refer to our earnings press release, our Form 8K, furnished to the SEC today, and both of which are available in the investor section of our website, BoydGaming.com. We do not provide a reconciliation of forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures due to our inability to project special charges and certain expenses. Today's call is also being webcast live at voidgaming.com and will be available for replay in the investor relations section of our website shortly after the completion of this call. So with that, I would now like to turn the call over to Keith Smith. Keith?
spk07: Thanks, Josh, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Our first quarter results reflect an exceptional performance by our company and our entire team as the momentum that began in the third quarter of last year continued throughout our business. On a company-wide basis, we achieved an all-time EBITDA record of $292.6 million. While this is up considerably from the prior year, we also exceeded our first quarter 2019 performance by more than 30% and surpassed our previous record by over 20%. Company-wide margins for the quarter were 38.8%. This is nearly 1,200 basis points better than the first quarter of 2019, and 220 basis points higher than the previous record we set in the third quarter of 2020. We also achieved new EBITDA records in each of our two largest operating segments. In the Las Vegas local segment, EBITDA exceeded our previous record by 11% and was up 22% over 2019. And when excluding the Orleans, which is heavily reliant on destination business, our same store locals EBITDA was up 46% from 2019 levels. Operating margins in our Las Vegas local segment were nearly 50% for the quarter, 360 basis points higher than the record we set just two quarters ago. In our Midwest and South region, EBITDA grew nearly 40% over 2019, beating the previous record by almost 20%. Segment margins were nearly 40% this quarter, and overall gaming revenues were up more than 2% from 2019 levels. Most important, this operating strength was broad-based as 15 of our 17 properties in this segment grew EBITDA at a double-digit pace over their 2019 performance. Throughout the quarter, strengthening consumer confidence, limited entertainment options, and our disciplined operating strategy all contributed to produce record results across our portfolio. Starting in January and February, business returned to the levels we saw in the third quarter, but it was March where we really benefited from improving trends. From February to March, daily rated play increased over 18% across all age and worth segments. It was up nearly 25% in our 65 and up segment. As vaccinations continue to roll out, customers are clearly growing more comfortable with resuming their pre-pandemic activities, including regular visits to our properties. We also experienced an impressive increase in unrated play, which grew more than 33% on a comparable basis from February to March, a reflection of a strengthening consumer confidence across the country. This strong unrated play is providing us the opportunity to grow our database as we leverage our enhanced tools and capabilities to identify high-value, unrated players on our gaming floors and then enroll them into our Be Connected loyalty program. In the first quarter, new player sign-ups rose 35% over the fourth quarter. But beyond the sheer increase in quantity, it is the quality of these guests that is far more impressive. On an overall basis, the worth of our first quarter sign-ups was over 50% higher than the first quarter of 2019. Across the business, the strong trends of March are continuing into April. Rated guest counts are running well ahead of the third and fourth quarters of 2020, and unrated play remains at very high levels. While we are very encouraged by April's business trends, as other entertainment options become increasingly available, we do expect unrated play levels will normalize. But even as unrated play normalizes, we are confident we can keep delivering strong performances as we pursue additional growth opportunities within our growing rated customer base. One of these opportunities is the 65 and over segment. While we have seen strong growth from this demographic in the last several months, many are still on the sidelines. And as our country continues to make progress against the pandemic, we are confident that more of these guests will return to our properties as the year progresses. We also see opportunities to grow our destination business. While business from local guest segments remain strong, guest counts from destination travelers remain well below pre-pandemic levels. The softness has been particularly noteworthy at the Orleans, which draws a significant amount of business from destination travelers. It has also impacted our downtown Las Vegas segment, where visitation from our core Hawaiian customers has been severely restrained by travel restrictions. As COVID vaccinations continue to roll out and restrictions lift, we expect visitation among our rated destination customers to improve. We also expect to see improvements in midweek business as restrictions on conventions and meetings are eased and capacity limits are increased. Over the last several weeks, we've started to see the first indications that this destination business is returning. Hotel reservations have increased to their highest level in more than a year, and our booking window is rapidly improving. At the same time, we are experiencing growing demand for non-gaming amenities. We are encouraged by the opportunity for growth on the non-gaming side of the business and will take a thoughtful and disciplined approach in reintroducing these amenities. We remain committed to our disciplined operating strategy that has delivered outstanding results over the last several quarters. On top of organic growth opportunities within our portfolio, we continue to make progress with our strategic growth initiatives. For example, our interactive gaming presence and offerings continue to expand. After introducing Stardust as our social casino brand last year, we have now entered the world of real money online gaming, launching our first Stardust online casinos in Pennsylvania and New Jersey last week. We're also excited by the performance in the ongoing potential of our partnership with FanDuel Group. Together, we have established market-leading sports betting products in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and Mississippi, with significant future opportunities yet to come in states like Ohio, Louisiana, Missouri, and Kansas. And with their recently announced partnership with the NFL, FanDuel's brand will be significantly enhanced through its association as one of the league's official sports wagering partners for this coming football season. FanDuel will have rights to include in-game and post-game highlights directly into its Sportsbook app, further separating our partner from the competition in a crowded sports betting landscape. We're also making good progress on the Wilton Rancheria Tribe's resort near Sacramento, California. Construction is now underway on the Sky River Casino, and the project is set to go vertical next month. I had the pleasure of joining the tribal council, community leaders, and hundreds of tribal members for a groundbreaking and early march. This was a true celebration by the entire Wilton community as they saw their vision of self-sufficiency finally come to life. We are proud to call the Wilton tribe our friends and are honored to be their partners in this project. We look forward to joining them and opening the doors of Sky River Casino in the second half of 2022. Before concluding, I wanted to take note of our company's ongoing progress on our corporate responsibility initiatives. Last week, we were honored to be recognized as the highest-rated gaming company in Forbes magazine's listing of America's best employers for diversity. We are a company that takes pride in promoting a welcoming culture for all team members. Being recognized by Forbes as a leader in workplace diversity is a great honor. and reflects our ongoing efforts to create and support an environment where team members feel valued and appreciated. We also released our company's first comprehensive environmental, social, and governance report last week. While our company has been committed to the principles of ESG for decades, this report is the first time we have compiled this information into a single document. Within this report, you will see detailed data on the progress we are making to conserve natural resources, reduce our carbon footprint, enhance the lives of our team members, build strong communities, and promote good corporate governance. We are pleased with our performance against key ESG benchmarks to date and look forward to sharing our continued progress with you in the future. In conclusion, this was truly an outstanding quarter for our company. Our business model is allowing us to make the most of an improving environment by delivering exceptional EBITDA growth and margin improvement throughout the portfolio. Throughout the country, our property leaders are successfully maintaining higher margins and a disciplined operating philosophy as restrictions lift and visitation grows. And we continue to make significant progress on our strategic issues. Throughout all of this, our team members have kept their commitment to delivering personal and memorable service to our guests. That service is what makes Boyd Gaming stand out from the competition, and it will continue to draw customers back to our properties as the pandemic recovery continues. To every Boyd Gaming team member, thank you. Together, we are achieving new heights as a company, and it is an honor to be part of such an incredible team. Thank you for your time today. I'd now like to turn the call over to Josh. Josh?
spk09: Thanks, Keith. Before I provide comments on the quarter, I want to point out that we have included our 2019 results in the financial tables accompanying today's release. We believe that 2019 is a more relevant comparison period to this year's results since our entire property portfolio was closed during the second half of March of last year. Keith noted this was an incredible quarter for our company. As you have seen from our results in the third and fourth quarter of last year, our operating strategy delivers on growing EBITDA with enhanced margins. And this was also the case in January and February. January and February were very good months and resembled third quarter of last year in terms of business levels and margins. Compared to 2019, revenues were down nearly 11% during the February year-to-date period, while company-wide EBITDA after corporate expense rose 34% and margins improved nearly 1,200 basis points. The month of March was even stronger. March benefited from our more efficient operating model, but was enhanced by stronger revenues, particularly from higher margin unrated play. In March, revenues were down just 6% from 2019 levels, while company-wide EBITDA margins after corporate expense approached 44%. During the first quarter, guest counts and spend both increased from the levels we saw in the third and fourth quarter of last year. We saw improvements across all age and worth segments, including the 65 and over age segments. In terms of gaming revenues, our Midwest and South segment rose more than 2% from 2019, while in the Las Vegas local segment, gaming revenues were up approximately 4% from 2019. In addition, we are experiencing increased demand for non-gaming amenities and growing demand for hotel capacity from both rated and unrated customers. Looking forward, we believe there is continued opportunity to grow our business among upper eight segments of our database that have yet to fully return, as well as destination business. And we have the opportunity to build relationships with higher-worth customers we have added to our database during the last several quarters. Our enhanced tools and capabilities, combined with a more disciplined operating philosophy, have allowed us to execute our business with much greater efficiency. This philosophy will continue to be our focus as customer demand continues to return and we successfully, selectively restore additional amenities. We believe that our operating strategy is sustainable and we are confident that we can maintain a significantly more efficient business model over the long run. Touching on a few additional points from the quarter. We generated over $200 million in cash during the quarter, resulting in approximately $730 million of cash on the balance sheet at quarter end. And we currently have no borrowings outstanding under our $1 billion revolving credit facility. As we continue to grow out of this pandemic, we believe it is most prudent to maintain our financial flexibility with respect to our cash balances and our free cash flows. In terms of our online business, we continue to be excited by the opportunity represented by sports and iGaming. As we previously indicated, we expect to generate over $20 million in EBITDA from online this year, and we are on track to achieve that result. We believe our strategic partnership and equity stake in FanDuel is the right approach, generating positive cash flow in a highly promotional, capital-intensive, and competitive landscape. And as more states legalize sports betting and FanDuel leads the way as one of the long-term winners in this space, our 5% equity stake will only continue to grow in value for our shareholders. We are also continuing to expand our online gaming presence under the Stardust brand that leverages our customer database and geographic distribution. We just launched the Stardust brand in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, and we continue to explore opportunities to expand and grow our capabilities and presence online, particularly in the iGaming space. So in summary, this was a great quarter. January and February were good, March was exceptional, and that strength is continuing into April. Going forward, we will stay firmly committed to our operating strategy. driving increased EBITDA as a result of a continued operating discipline and a tight focus on the right customer. And finally, our strategic partnership with FanDuel and our online iGaming business will be growing components of our business. Matt, that concludes our remarks. We're now ready to take any questions.
spk11: We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your touchtone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question will come from Joe Greff with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
spk13: Good afternoon, Keith. Good afternoon, Josh. First question I have for you is, you know, I guess on the sustainability of margins, particularly in the Las Vegas local segment, you know, 50% EBITDA margins is impressive, to obviously say the least. As you think about, you know, further revenue recovery, do margins in that segment have to go down much further outside of mix associated with amenities like S&B? Internally, are you estimating higher normalized margins versus what you estimated in the last year, given what you've experienced year to date. And just to kind of get a sense of margins in March and April in the locals market, I'm presuming you were above 50% that year reported for the quarter. Where are you in March and April? Is it something like 55%? To give us a sense, and then I have a follow-up.
spk09: Wow. I can have a follow-up from that question, Joe. I think the best way to think about margins from our perspective is that, look, these margins are incredible. And I think it's really unrealistic to expect that, certainly for the long term, that we will be able to achieve those margins. I think equally as unrealistic is that they are significantly below that. I mean, we've said, you know, kind of expecting only 200 or 300 basis points of marginal improvement is not realistic either. I think from the perspective of individual segments, those broad statements really kind of continue to apply. We do think that there's upside in our business from customers that haven't returned, both in terms of those that are older and local customers that haven't returned, but also high-value customers that are more destination-oriented and the business that will pick up from meetings and conventions as more and more restrictions are alleviated. I think all of that is on the positive side of the ledger. I think from the perspective of the other side of the ledger, we have risk of non-gaming amenities and other amenities coming online. While we expect to operate those differently than we have in the past, and have higher margins and more efficiency from those, I think they will put pressure on our margins overall. So I think it's been a good quarter. I think a lot of good things came together, in particular unrated play. And I think we'll continue to be focused on running a highly efficient, more focused, differentiated strategy than we ran pre-COVID.
spk07: And that's, you know... And look, just to be clear... You know, the margins that were achieved in Q1 should not be viewed as run rate margins. I think, you know, cutting through everything Josh said, we expect to obviously do better than we were doing in 2019 by a bunch, but the Q1 margins should not be viewed as run rate. Everything came together, strong revenue growth, disciplined operating strategies. And as we bring back more amenities, as unrated play normalizes, as other parts of the business normalize, you'll see margins dip below what we saw in Q1.
spk13: Great. That's helpful. And then my next question, which is not necessarily a multiple part one like the first one, do you think you're more apt or likely to engage or grow through M&A given where your equity valuation is? Why not take advantage of your stock? as a currency to complement same-store recovery with accretive and organic growth?
spk07: I would say that our approach to M&A hasn't changed over the last 12 months or the last six months. We look at it in a very disciplined way. Whatever it is that we're looking at has to be strategic. There has to be a reason to own it. It has to be accretive. It has to be a high-quality asset. has to move the needle for us from an EBITDAR standpoint. All those things still apply. How we finance it, whether it be through equity or through debt, is a completely different conversation for us than whether or not we should own it and how we pay for it. So we're keeping our eyes open, but we're not... We're not escalating our involvement in the M&A landscape just because of a higher stock price today.
spk13: Thank you very much.
spk11: Thanks, Joe. Our next question will come from Carlos Santorelli with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
spk14: Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. Josh, you guys obviously in the locals market in the quarter relative to kind of 1Q19 margins up 1,600, 1,100 in the Midwest and South region. Back on the 3Q call, you guys kind of talked about you had similar margin expansion in that period to what you displayed here relative to the 3Q of 19. And you talked about kind of achieving half of that was a safe place to be. And I think kind of Something along the lines of what Joe was asking, that would imply about 800 basis points of expansion in the locals market, 500, 600 basis points of expansion in the Midwest and South segments. Did those feel a lot more comfortable now after kind of seeing the model work, you know, not only through the 3Q and the 1Q strength, but also some of the choppier periods in the 4Q where the top line performance wasn't as strong given some of the closures and softer demand during that, you know, COVID spike period?
spk09: Yeah. I think we definitely have confidence in our ability to execute on this strategy. I think as each quarter passes, we obviously get more and more comfortable with it, but I think the other thing that happens is that every team member of the company is buying into it in a growing way as well. I think that helps build the momentum around us being disciplined and continuing to be focused on our strategy going forward. You know, when I think about kind of the margins overall, I think, you know, we did talk about kind of being able to capture about half of that, the increases that we were seeing. And when I generally look at kind of and try to back into the work that you and your peers do from an analyst perspective and see where that number is, I mean, that's generally kind of 600 to 650 basis points for the company overall. relative to 2019 levels and I think you know we feel really comfortable with those levels I'm not sure about commenting on the mix and where we get it from but I think overall I think the kind of the the what we have communicated in the past is is something we continue to believe in and I think that we are We're continuing to live through this pandemic and kind of get more and more comfortable with the passage of time, but we do have challenges in front of us as customers continue to come back and as we introduce new non-gaming amenities or select non-game amenities. Each one of those is going to be a challenge for us and kind of the next one we have to kind of overcome. So I think that's how we think about it. But I think we feel very comfortable about kind of what's been said historically in terms of our ability to execute on the margin and what we expect to capture. And I don't think we're ready to kind of say that's going to improve dramatically from those levels or anything like that at this point.
spk14: Great. And then obviously the first quarter, as you guys articulated, was kind of a tale of several different months. When you think specifically about that 65 and older customer and acknowledging that vaccination rates in that age group are very high, I think north of 70% and potentially north of 80% at this point, did you see any change in the behavior or I should say visitation of that customer as kind of we went through the first quarter and obviously now having most of kind of April think you know, more of that customer, and can you kind of benchmark where that customer is today in terms of visitation relative to kind of 2019 levels?
spk07: As we look and focus on that particular demographic, they are, you know, their frequency is up in the last several months, and their spend is up over 19 in the last several months. I think there's probably a number of factors, maybe mostly driven by pent-up demand. They have not frequented us. They haven't been back to see us in a while. And so how long does that last? Is that a new level of play for all of 21? Is it for a couple of months? I think those are some of the uncertainties I think Josh was trying to refer to when he was talking about margins that we still have to work our way through. But we're seeing increasing numbers of them come back. As we get through March and into April, we're seeing, once again, better visitation or increased visitation, increased levels of play. It is a matter of when does it normalize.
spk14: And sorry, Keith, are you saying they were up relative to 19 in March and April?
spk07: Yes.
spk14: Okay.
spk07: Yes.
spk14: Okay. And then just lastly, Josh, sorry. Any kind of color you could provide on, on CapEx plans for the balance of this year and whether or not there will be any incremental CapEx with some things that you, you know, perhaps are bringing back online as, as demand kind of presents itself for certain other amenities?
spk09: Yeah, I mean, we generally have thought about our CapEx plan for this year around $175 million, and really that more back-end loaded than front-end loaded. Q1 CapEx was, I think, like $35 million. And so, you know, I think that we will back-end load our CapEx. And we will spend it as long as we continue to get comfortable with kind of the roll through of the pandemic, if you will. We don't expect to be spending any more than that based on what we know today. I think that's consistent with what we said at the end of last year's also. Great. Thank you, guys.
spk14: Appreciate it.
spk11: Our next question will come from Barry Jonas with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
spk12: Hey, thanks so much. So can we spend a minute to talk about BoydPay? I believe you're in a couple of properties. Just curious if there are any early engagement or funding trends you can share and timeline for the wider launch.
spk07: Yeah, and so probably no specific data that we're prepared to share right now. We currently are launched or live in four states, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, and Nevada. We expect that we will be fully deployed throughout the company in all of our states and all of our properties over the next several quarters, definitely by the end of the year. And it's going well. I mean, people are accessing it. People are using it. The numbers are growing. But nothing in particular to highlight in terms of quantities right now.
spk12: Got it. And then, you know, as you talk about sort of maybe more normalized run rates for margins or at least from the Q1 pace, I'm curious, is that tied to any competitive actions around promotions or amenities that you're currently seeing now?
spk07: Look, you know, we can talk about margins in a lot of different ways. Clearly, you know, revenues, because of our disciplined operating structure, that we've embraced. Revenues have the biggest impact on whether those margins continue to go up or stay the same or go down a little bit. But secondarily, the intensity of the competitive landscape in the various jurisdictions will have an impact. We've seen some of the smaller competitors go back to their old playbook. Most of our markets haven't seen anything too significant except from smaller players. But yes, that will have an impact Adding back non-gaming amenities will have some impact, but not as significant as things like revenue trends and the competitive landscape. Those will have more significant impacts on future margin.
spk09: I also think, I mean, we got a big boost from unrated play in March in particular, and so that's highly profitable revenue given we're not marketing to that customer base. And so, you know, kind of how that particular segment of our customer trends is also relevant to the margin story.
spk12: Great. Thanks so much, and congrats on a great quarter.
spk11: Thanks. Our next question will come from Thomas Allen with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
spk04: Hey, thanks. So first quarter EBITDA is typically about a quarter of the year. Can you just talk about kind of what you see as the gives and takes of kind of being able to sustain this? You did 293 of EBITDA in the first quarter.
spk09: Ask that last part again, Thomas.
spk04: I was... Like, you know, 1Q is typically a quarter of the year. So, I mean, the questions have been around, like, can you sustain margins? But my question is, like, can you sustain the absolute EBITDA you just did?
spk09: Yeah. So, look, I think the way to think about that is in the context of kind of what's been happening so far. And so, I think the performance in Q1 of this year as well as if you think about Q3 of last year were generally very good quarters. I think you have some ability to do obviously second quarter performance that's going to generally positive as well. And then I think the rest of the year gets to be difficult from a comp perspective. Q4 was softer due to demand associated with Q4 of last year. So I think when you think about 2021 and the rest of 2021 and we're not giving guidance obviously but just kind of put it in the context of what's happens so far in the quarter since we've reopened you can kind of start to put in context what's kind of a reasonable level of performance going forward i'm not so i don't i don't know if that helps or not but i don't think you can take obviously q1 and multiply times four and get there um so
spk04: Okay. And then a broader, a broader topic among lots of companies is a lack of labor and starting to see wage inflation. Are you feeling that?
spk07: Yeah. So, you know, hiring team members is one of the bigger challenges we have today, whether it be here in Nevada or across the country, unemployment has dropped. in most locations where we operate to, you know, significantly below where the peak was last year, and frankly, in most of our markets, close to where it was in 2019. And, you know, getting team members is difficult. It is a challenge, but we've been able to work our way through it. Are we seeing some wage inflation? I would say we're seeing limited wage inflation. You know, pockets here, pocket there, not anything that's going to significantly, you know, alter the margin of the business.
spk05: Thank you.
spk11: Our next question will come from Steve Weissinski with Stiefel. Please go ahead.
spk02: Hey, Keith. Hey, Josh. Good afternoon. So you guys have talked a lot about the unrated play being up so much. I think you said it was up 33%, and that's pretty much continued into April. Can you help us remind us what percent of your casino business came from unrated play pre-pandemic and then maybe what that looks like today? And I guess, you know, what I'm trying to get at here is, you know, just a sense of what type of impact there could be if some of these non-rated customers gravitate elsewhere as, you know, other entertainment options come back online.
spk07: Yeah, look, historically, unrated play has been less than half our business. You know, today, I think it's probably grown to be about half the business, but it It's in that zip code.
spk09: In terms of the loss of unrated, I think not all unrated play is going to leave the building when there's other entertainment options. I think that we think that it is the slice of our business that's most at risk. We typically, when you talk about unrated play, I think Keith was largely referring to overall revenues. I think that of our rated play, it represents about 20% or so. We generally track about 75% to 80% of our gaming revenues. That may help contextualize a little bit of the risk, I think. Again, we don't expect the entire kind of unrated segment to be at risk because we have a core group of unrated customers that are, I should say, since we don't know who they are, a core kind of level of performance in unrated that typically is in our business. It's just been kind of extra robust or robust in March in particular.
spk02: Right. Okay. Thanks. And then second question, you know, you talked a lot about the demand for certain non-gaming amenities, you know, that continues to pick up. And I guess the question is, you know, how do you guys balance bringing those, you know, those assets back online versus knowing the, you know, the potential margin dilution that could follow? And, you know, does that decision come down to, you know, the fear around potentially losing that customer to another competitor in order to, you know, to get those non-gaming amenities? Hopefully that makes sense.
spk07: I would say adding back gaming amenities is not a margin conversation. It's a business demand conversation, and it's about providing the right level of product and service and amenities to our guests. And so as guest counts grow, as the guests are looking for more options and they become more comfortable coming out and sitting in restaurants, we will react to that. in terms of opening more amenities. I think we've said a couple of times, an amenity that looked and felt a certain way in 2019 may look and feel a different way today in terms of how we operate it and how we open it. So it's not purely a margin conversation. It really is about how do we best support the customer and make sure that customer stays loyal to us at the right reinvestment levels.
spk02: Okay, great. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
spk11: Our next question will come from David Katz with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
spk08: Hi. Afternoon, everyone. I wanted to just go back to the discussion about, you know, margins and amenities in particular, right? When we think about what those – the impact of those amenities on margin, is it just a function of the structure of how those amenities – you know, operate within the enterprise, or is there some element of, you know, them being given away that, you know, is a drag? I'm just looking for an extra layer of insight there.
spk09: Yeah, so I think, so David, the way I think about part of it is understanding who your customer is and who you're providing kind of benefits to to be in that particular non-union amenity, whether it's a restaurant or a hotel. So you have to, I think, historically, and I'll talk more in the present, we've gotten better at making sure that we understand who we want to provide, say, a comp or benefit to to participate in that outlet, if you will. I think that as we go forward or as we execute the business today and as you think about who is in the building today, it's really a, broadly speaking, it's a high value customer that has been as loyal and rated and we know who they are and translates into a high value to us. And then the other set of customers is a unrated or lower rated customer that we're not marketing to the same degree that we were historically. So where you kind of get off track or off rails is from the perspective of over reinvesting in customers that may not have the worth or may be unknown to you when you provide the direct mail offer or the broad-based offer or the reinvestment offer or whatever it is. And so I think it's a combination of what we're talking about in changing our behavior going forward is really a combination of two things. One, just having better tools and analytics and capabilities from a marketing perspective to be able to understand who we're marketing to and do a higher quality job of that. And two is from the perspective of just philosophically understanding, you know, kind of who we want to market to and who we want to be and kind of offer to offer these amenities too. I think it's really a combination of two things. And the second part really became more visible as, you know, coming from a closed position and reintroducing business post-COVID or post-reopening COVID.
spk08: Got it. And with respect to the rollout of Stardust, is that something we should think about in a sort of earnings neutral fashion? Is there some drag along with it or... What context should we look at the next year, year and a half?
spk07: I think as you think about the rollout of the Stardust product in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, it's baked into the $20-plus million estimate we've provided on the online EBITDA for the year. So all of that is baked into that. So it's already kind of included, if you will, in what we've talked about.
spk09: We don't have any real... quote-unquote investment or expense associated with that offer.
spk08: Understood. Thanks. Congrats. Great quarter. Thank you.
spk11: Our next question will come from Sean Kelly with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
spk01: Hi. Good afternoon, and thanks for all the color already. Josh or Keith, I just wanted to dig a little bit deeper on, first of all, just maybe more of a clarification on the unrated play piece. Just how much of that in your kind of own estimation is coming from, what are the drivers behind it? How much of that is coming from stimulus? Is it coming from tax refunds or timing of holidays and vacations? Just given the surge, there's probably a few things going on, but kind of curious on what your insights are, what your property managers are talking about.
spk07: Yeah, look, it's a great question. It's one we spend a lot of time talking about and Obviously, given the fungible nature of money, I don't think we really know. Clearly, I think you look at pent-up demand from the older segment that we've talked about a couple of times has come out in bigger numbers in March and April. You talk about the rollout of the vaccines, people becoming more comfortable being in large crowds, strengthening consumer confidence. All of those things have come to play. There are still limited entertainment options, so as more people are comfortable coming out because of vaccinations, we're still one of the few true entertainment options out there that people are comfortable with. So I think it's all of those things. I really don't have a more definite or finite answer for you than that.
spk01: Great. If you, if we sort of take a couple of buckets, if we think about the sort of remaining recovery on the destination side, and then we think about the over 65 demographic and, and, you know, still some ability for that to recover and, And then we think about, you know, versus this sort of surge in unrated play. Is there any way to estimate, are the first two buckets, are those more than enough to sort of overcome sort of the surge you saw in the unrated play? Or, you know, do they balance each other out? Just kind of trying to think about the magnitudes of what's left versus what you just saw.
spk09: Yeah, so I... I think we would like to be able to quantify that. The issue really is the black hole that you don't know about surrounding the unrated customer. I do feel like, or I think we do believe, and we can quantify, you know, the opportunities we have versus 2019 or some prior period of customers that previously came that haven't come back. We can look at that. We can understand what that is. We can understand where their work was, what their age is, whether their destination are local customers. We can understand all that and understand that they aren't in the building today. What we don't know with 100% certainty is to what degree all of those customers are going to come back or not. I think the way I think about it and the way we think about it as a company is that the reality is there's a whole bunch of younger demographic customers that haven't come back. but the worth associated with those is not significant when you compare it to the age segments, age tiers that are above that that haven't come back. There's a host of high-worth, unrated customers, both local and destination, that haven't come back. There's guys that are, you know, between whatever you consider a younger demographic and the oldest demographic that still haven't come back to fall in those categories too. You've got opportunities with respect to meetings and conventions as restrictions are lifted that will help drive efficiencies in midweek business. You've got opportunities with the young rated customer segments that we are signing up and learning about their worth and learning about the opportunity. And then you go, okay, well, how much of the yarn rate applies at risk? And that's the part you don't know what you're balancing against in reality.
spk01: Thanks for tackling it, Josh. And then one last clarification would just be, just for this over 65 piece, you know, just how much of that customer, like I just wanted to clarify really quickly. Are you seeing the same customer spending more and coming more frequently, or are you seeing total dollars of the over 65 cohort now up on, you know, kind of March and April versus what you were seeing back in 2019? Is it just the same customer if they come back, but total dollars are still down, or are total dollars themselves actually up?
spk10: Total dollars are up, I believe.
spk07: It's more customers and more spend. In the aggregate for that age group.
spk09: Yeah, that's right. So we're saying we've got higher overall revenues are up in that segment with less customers and And so as a result The customers that we are seeing the worth of them is is improved Right. So regardless of the metric that you look at going from whether it's number of customers, spend per customer, total revenue by segment, all of those are up when you compare to kind of the trend from Q3 to Q4 and now into Q1.
spk01: Understood. Yeah, it does. Understood. Thank you very much.
spk11: Our next question will come from Chad Bennion with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
spk03: Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Josh, Keith, about a year ago, you suspended the dividend, which was roughly $30 million a year from a payout standpoint, given the unknowns of COVID-19. And here we are about a year later, you're setting records. You're talking about $200 million of free cash flow. It doesn't seem like there are major near-term M&A or CapEx on the horizon. So how are you thinking about the return of the dividend if there's nothing else to use the cash for? Thanks.
spk07: I think it's a conversation that is premature today. You may be able to see around corners a quarter or two into the future. I guess we're not that confident of looking around those corners yet. And so the key for us today is maintaining financial flexibility As we continue to grow out of this, while we have had great success, and by all means, it was a fantastic quarter, we have to see how we continue to grow out of this pandemic and make sure nothing else happens. And so financial flexibility is the key. That's why there's $700 million of cash on the balance sheet, and that will continue to be our focus, absent some really good use for you know, our cash or liquidity. In the meantime, we're going to maintain flexibility.
spk03: Okay, thanks. And then on the growth side, there have been a few RFPs in the past, I guess, in the past year in Virginia, in Chicago, and a few other places. And now you have New York and potentially Texas, although just in early discussions, kind of on people's radars. How are you thinking about, you know, throwing your hat in the ring for some of these ground-up I guess, larger investment opportunities if they do come up in the near term. Thank you.
spk09: So, the way I think we think about it is really just because we're generating a lot of free cash flow doesn't mean we're going to go out and spend it all. I think from our perspective, we have to have confidence in the opportunity, quite honestly, and be able to feel comfortable that we can generate the return. So I think there are opportunities that we have historically, you know, as we've learned about them, we continue to watch and be interested in. And then there's others where we think it doesn't make sense for a company like ours, regardless of the success that we're having, because we just don't like the dynamics of the market or the circumstances under which we're going to need to pursue that opportunity. So it all comes back to, can we generate the adequate return for the investment? And if we don't see that, then we're not going to pursue it. And I think that's the fundamental thesis of how we think about opportunities and whether you want to talk about opportunities in land-based or land-based development or any other aspect of our business. That's where we start the conversation, I think.
spk03: Thanks, Josh. Great quarter, guys.
spk07: Thank you.
spk11: Our next question will come from John Decree with Union Gaming. Please go ahead.
spk00: Hi, Keith. Hi, Josh. Guys, I think the capacity restrictions in the state and Nevada, Las Vegas, are going to be lifted to 80% in a couple days from 50%. wanted to get your take on any implications that has or that you think it might have, either positive or negative, for your business or the competitive landscape. And then as a follow-up, extrapolate that to any markets that you operate in where improved capacity restrictions or eased capacity restrictions might be a benefit for you guys.
spk07: Sure. So look, I think that You know, we've proven in Q1 and, frankly, last year were an indication that we don't necessarily need more capacity to generate strong results. You know, having said that, the lifting of capacity restrictions going to 80 percent here in Nevada and then ultimately 100 percent is certainly incrementally positive. It's positive from a couple of factors. Certainly on big, you know, or large, busy weekends, we can probably use some additional capacity. Mark Broughton- midweek really not, but it has a psychological effect, not only here locally, but I think across the US and relaying the fact that Las Vegas is reopen and I think. Mark Broughton- will drive more people to town, you know across the country, we have varying degrees of capacity restrictions still in place. Mark Broughton- And so, you know as those get lifted it really is a matter of you know, will it drive more customers. do we need that capacity? Are we doing fine? And every market has its own dynamics. So there's not kind of a holistic answer I can give you other than lifting capacity restrictions is certainly incrementally positive, if not only for psychological reasons and letting people know that we're back to normal.
spk00: Thanks, Keith. And congratulations, guys, on a great quarter.
spk11: Thank you. Thank you. This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Josh Hirschberg for any closing remarks.
spk09: Thanks, Matt, and thanks for everyone joining the call today. We appreciate all the questions, and if anyone needs to follow up with the company, please feel free to reach out. Thank you very much.
spk11: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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