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spk01: Welcome to the Cadence Bank Corporation fourth quarter and full year 2020 earnings call. Comments are subject to the forward-looking statements disclaimer, which can be found in the press release and on page two of the financial results presentation. Both of those documents can be located in the investor relations section at cadencebankcorporation.com. All participants will be in listen-only mode. After management's opening remarks, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Murphy, Chairman and CEO. Please go ahead.
spk08: Good morning, and thank you all for joining us. Joining me today on the call are Valerie, Sam, Hank, and Billy Braddock. Billy is familiar to many of you, but not all of you. He's now serving as our Chief Credit Officer. When we started Cadence 11 years ago, Billy was one of the first people I asked to join me. Billy's a 26-year veteran of banking and business in Houston. He's very disciplined in his approach to credit. He's thorough, has a great eye for details. Billy has the confidence of the senior management team and our board, and it's a perfect fit to see him step into this important role. Billy is a real team player. As we look back on 2020, it certainly was challenging in many ways. But on the other hand, we feel pretty good about many aspects of our performance and have a real positive outlook towards the future. We continue to report an attractive PPNR and core NIM. Our deposit franchise improved significantly in 2020. We materially increased our reserves, and we enjoy very strong capital and liquidity positions. So Cadence today is really well positioned to move forward in 2021. I'm extremely grateful to our hardworking, dedicated team of bankers. I feel good about the markets we operate in, and Cadence balance sheet is really in great shape. So as a result of the many positive developments in 2020, we plan to resume our share buyback, increase the dividend to 15 cents, payable February 12th, and we plan to reduce maturing and callable debt. Fourth quarter was pretty solid from an operating perspective, and it showed encouraging improvement in credit as well. First on operating highlights, fourth quarter PPNR was $260 million, which includes $169 million in accelerated hedge revenues, so normalizing for that. we get to a PPNR of 91 million, and for the full year, PPNR of 373 million, which would be a 2.06 PPNR ROA. In normal times, we'd be pretty pleased with that number, but I would say it's a bit more noteworthy given the pandemic. NEM continues to be a good story. We increased five basis points to 354 link quarter. Most of that is driven by tightening of our deposit costs. Pleased with NEM. As I mentioned, credit metrics improved broadly. Fourth quarter is our second consecutive quarter in which NPAs criticized and classified loans declined. This quarter down roughly 20%, so that's good progress. Billy's going to share some of his perspective on credit later in the call. For the year, net charge-offs were 79 basis points, and our ending reserves, excluding PPP loans, was 3.12%. So we saw improved credit metrics in restaurant energy and in the C&I portfolios, while only hospitality saw some modest deterioration late quarter. Excluding hospitality, our CRE credit metrics are outstanding and are as is true with our mortgage credit metrics. Really good numbers there. So as we think about future growth, the headwinds that we've experienced the last few periods here meaning the decline in restaurant and energy portfolios are fading as those portfolios are pretty close to being appropriately sized. Also, the headwinds from just the softer economic backdrop are moderating, and many borrowers remain conservative. As the vaccine spreads, there seems to be some reason to be optimistic about 2021, and I guess the question that many bankers get these days about when will loan growth resume, of course, is still hard to answer with certainty, but it does feel like the second half of 2021 we should see some improvement in growth outlook for growth. So today our capital position is in very good shape. I'm really proud of the decisions that we made prior to and during the pandemic to ensure the strength of our bank. You look at our four primary capital ratios, each of them are up meaningfully over the prior year, and the highlight would be CE Tier 1 and Tier 1, both ending the year at 14%, up 250 basis points. So last, for tangible book value to end at 1583, up 8%, in an extremely challenging year, is a noteworthy accomplishment. So to summarize, all things considered, we're pleased with our execution, proud of our employees rising to the challenge. With that, I'll pause and turn it over to Billy.
spk09: Thank you, Paul, and happy to join the call. As Paul noted, and you all know, 2020 was a challenging year, and while there's still much uncertainty, we're happy to report that credit continued to improve over the fourth quarter. From a broad perspective, our charge-offs for the year were elevated, but at a manageable level given the COVID impact. Our criticized levels have shown improvement, and our most stressed categories are in generally a better position, but we've still got a really watchful eye on those. Let me start with net charge-offs for 2020, which totaled $106 million, or 79 basis points of average loans. Reserves ended the year at a total of $367 million, or 3.12% net of PPP. Non-performing loans were 1.17% net of PPP. The vast majority of the charge-offs were either fully or partially due to the COVID impact. COVID-related deferrals, on a related note, have continued to fall to $135 million as of January 15th of 21, down from $376 million at September 30th of 20. As we look at credit migration over the fourth quarter, the trends are improving. Specifically, non-performing loans declined by over 27% on a linked basis and by 39% when compared second half of 2020 to first half of 2020. If we turn to our pool of criticized loans, the trend is similar with the pool shrinking by 20% to $872 million. which was driven primarily by upgrades and paydowns. In fact, just 10% of the sequential decline in criticized pool was driven by charge-offs. By category, restaurant, energy, and general CNI made up the lion's share of the positive migration in a pretty even distribution between the three portfolios. The only category that saw an uptick in criticized was hospitality, which I'll speak to in more detail shortly. As we've done in previous quarters, let me quickly give an update on a few of the portfolios. First, our restaurant book include excluding PPP declined by $161 million or 16% year over year. The $837 million portfolio remains 75% quick serve and fast casual, which continues to perform well through the pandemic. The $156 million full service dining segments remain the most stressed segments of the portfolio. Charge-offs for the year were $33 million, or 3.5% of average loans, excluding PPP. Reserve for the portfolio is $53 million, or 6.3% for the total portfolio. While not specifically allocated, this reserve would cover 34% of the more stressed full-service dining segment. Non-performing loans sit at 6.4%. On energy, the overall portfolio declined 13.5% or $193 million from last year to $1.23 billion net of PPP. The more stressed E&P sector had the largest drop at 25% for the year and now makes up 20% of the energy portfolio while midstream makes up 65%. Energy charge-offs for the year were $16.7 million or 1.25% of average loans. Our reserves against the energy portfolio stand at 2.6%, excluding PPP, and non-performing loans are at 1.6%. For the broader CNI portfolio, charge-offs for the year were $46 million, or 1.2% of average loans. Our reserve against the CNI portfolio stands at 2.5%, excluding PPP, and non-performing loans are at 90 basis points. Now on the CRE hospitality segment, This is the portfolio that's under the most stress at cadence. The portfolio now stands at $257 million. These hospitality charge-offs for the year were $2.9 million or 1.1% of average loans. Here, too, we believe the bank is in a good reserve position with $50 million or 20% against the portfolio of $257 million. Non-performing loans sit at 90 basis points. A couple of higher points are on the CRE excluding hospitality and on residential mortgage, as Paul mentioned. Some of the stats behind it are the CRE portfolio excluding hospitality ended the year at $2.65 billion with only 46 basis points of non-performing loans. Outside of the hospitality described earlier, credit performance is hard to complain about today in this sector. Comparable stats can be said for our $2.5 billion residential mortgage book of business. These teams of bankers have really navigated 2020 quite well. So overall, as Paul mentioned, the bank has come a long way in the past year from a credit perspective, and there's a lot to be cautiously optimistic about, with cautiously being the operative word. As we look into 21, we remain vigilant on credit, we're encouraged by the trends, and we look forward to a return to a more normalized credit environment. With that, let me turn the call over to Valerie.
spk05: Thanks, Belly. Good morning. For the fourth quarter, our adjusted net income was $200 million, or $1.57 per share, elevated over the prior quarter adjusted net income of $51 million and 40 cents per share due to lower loan provisions and accelerated hedge revenue recognized in the fourth quarter due to a partial hedge ineffectiveness determination. I will come back to the hedge revenue in a moment. The fourth quarter loan provisions of $2.8 million was down $30 million from the prior quarter and reflected improved credit migration and the meaningful declines in criticized and non-performing loans. While the loan provision was materially less this quarter, given the continued uncertainty in the environment, our allowance for credit losses remains robust at 2.89% or 3.12% excluding PPP loans, representing an ACL to non-performing loan coverage ratio of 266%. Turning to the balance sheet, loans of $12.7 billion declined $747 million during the quarter or $629 million, excluding PPP loans, as over $1 billion in fundings and originations in the quarter were more than offset by paydowns and payoffs. At a high level, the paydowns were the result of a number of factors, borrower sales of assets, excess borrower liquidity, refinances to other markets, and strategic exits of certain credits. Strategic reductions included payoffs and paydowns of $113 million in criticized loans, $94 million in leveraged loans without modifiers, $120 million in restaurants, and $80 million in energy. Note that there are some overlap between these categories. Deposits of $16.1 billion. continued to grow during the quarter, up $266 million from the linked quarter, while at the same time our cost of deposits continued to fall, down to 25 basis points in the quarter compared to 32 basis points last quarter. Our non-interest-bearing deposits ended the year strong, at $5 million, or over 31% of total deposits, up from 26% a year ago. All in all, it has been a great year for deposit composition. of $1.3 billion with cost of deposits down 89 basis points year-over-year and an improved mix. Given the quarterly growth in deposits and declines in loans, our balance sheet liquidity continued to grow with loans to deposits ending the year at 79%. We did add modestly to our $3.3 billion with the remainder of liquidity adding to our cash balances of $2.1 billion. The securities portfolio now represents just shy of 18% of total assets. We may continue to increase it modestly, but we don't plan for it to become much more than 20% of the balance sheet. Accordingly, until net loan growth rebounds, we do expect to continue to hold excess liquidity on the balance sheet. Net interest income increased by $2.8 million in the quarter to $157 million, driven by a $3.3 million increase in loan fees due to loan payoffs. while lower funding costs offset the impact of lower average loans during the quarter. The fourth quarter loan fees included $4.7 million in PPP loan fees, up $1.3 million from the prior quarter, related to the $118 million of forgiven or paid off PPP loans in the fourth quarter. Remaining unamortized PPP loan fees were $8.8 million at year end, with the vast majority of that to be recognized in 2021. Net interest margin for the quarter improved by five basis points to 3.54%. Yield on interest-earning assets remained stable at 385 as loan fees served to offset lower average loan balances, partially offset by lower securities yields due to fourth quarter purchases and the impact of increased short-term investments earning 18 basis points. Cost of interest-bearing deposits declined to 51 basis points from 59 basis points in the quarter as we continued to make progress on lowering our deposit costs, ending the quarter at a record low of 25 basis points, a decline of seven basis points in the quarter. Excluding the impact of the PPP program, our NEM remained flat from the prior quarter. Now to clarify our caller income and the accelerated revenue we reflected in the fourth quarter. As you recall, we have been amortizing from OCI into interest income the $261 million collar gain we captured in the first quarter of this year. As we reported in an 8K earlier this month, declines in forecast hedge-eligible loans resulted in a determination under hedge accounting called partial ineffectiveness that resulted in $169.2 million of that gain being brought forward into fourth quarter 2020 earnings. This $169 million accelerated hedge revenue was reflected in non-interest income, while the effective amortization of the hedge gain has and will continue to be reflected in interest income. Specifically, of the $261 million total gain, we have recognized $226 million here in 2020, with $169 million in non-interest income and $57 million in interest income. And we expect $34 million of the remaining gain to flow into interest income during 2021 and the final $2 million in 2022. I realize this is a bit complicated, but the bottom line of it all is it drove a meaningful increase in our capital during the year. Adjusted non-interest income in the fourth quarter was also impacted by this accelerated hedge revenue at $208.4 million, up from $33.1 million in the prior year. Increases in all other non-interest income categories was 6.1 million, up 19% compared to the third quarter. This growth included quarter-over-quarter increases of 3.6 million in earnings from limited partnerships, 0.7 million in investment advisory revenue impacted by market performance, and 0.6 million in credit-related fees. Adjusted non-interest expenses were 105 million in the fourth quarter, up 12.6 million. compared to the length quarter. The fourth quarter expenses were elevated due primarily to an increase of $8.1 million in personnel expense driven by year-end adjustments to incentive accruals as the result of improved credit and corporate performance in the quarter. Looking to 2021, compared to our full year 2020 adjusted non-interest expenses of $378 million, We are expecting a low to mid-single-digit annual expense growth, factoring in a return to a normalized level of business development-related expenses, while continuing our long-standing expense discipline. The reported full-year and fourth-quarter 2020 efficiency ratios were both positively impacted by the large accelerated hedge revenue. But before that positive impact, both periods reflected slight increases. with the full year at 50.3% and fourth quarter at 53.7%. The full year increase reflects lower revenues in 2020, and the length quarter reflects increases in the fourth quarter expenses. Turning to capital, all of our capital ratios increased meaningfully this quarter due to the increased earnings and lower risk-weighted assets. At December 31, our common equity Tier 1 and Tier 1 ratios were up to 14%, and total capital was up to 16.7%. The leverage ratio ended the quarter at 10.9%, and our tangible common equity to tangible assets increased further to 10.7%. These robust levels of capital, along with improved credit metrics, allowed the flexibility to be more proactive on the capital front with the capital plans Paul spoke to previously. Looking back to the uncertainty that we all had in March of this year, I don't think we could have anticipated wrapping up the year arguably stronger than we started it. We ended the year at $18.7 billion with a very strong balance sheet, including a loan portfolio reflecting lower risk and improved credit characteristics, a robust allowance for credit losses excluding PPP of 3.12%, earning assets at stable organic yields funded by a record low-cost core deposit base, and substantial regulatory capital, buoyed by our successful hedging activities during the year. And importantly, our tangible book value increased 8% during what was undoubtedly an unprecedented and volatile period. As we look forward to 2021, we're encouraged by the opportunities we have to build on this foundation, return to a more normalized credit and business environment, and grow shareholder values. With that, let me turn it back to the operator for questions.
spk06: We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your touchstone phone. If you are using a speaker phone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. First question today comes from Jennifer Dumba of Truist. Please go ahead. Thank you.
spk04: Good morning.
spk08: Good morning.
spk04: Valerie said you're looking forward to a more normal credit and business environment. Can you talk about what kind of charge-off levels you think could happen this year? I know it's really still difficult to predict given the pace of recovery. It's so uncertain still. And then my second question is, you said you had about a billion dollars in loan originations during the quarter. Can you just talk about what that consisted of and what kind of opportunities you're seeing right now for lending? Thanks.
spk08: Sure. Thanks, Jennifer. You know, I would say, first off, that I would expect charge-offs to be less than last year. Yeah, still elevated. And, you know, a lot of the The risk in these credits, excuse me, we feel has been identified and reserved for, for the most part. But as we work our way through the year, it should be a better year from a charge-off standpoint. That would be my expectation. The billion dollars in growth was pretty diverse, pretty broad-based. As you know, we have 190 lenders in a great region of the country that is doing well, relatively speaking, coping with COVID better than some other areas. And so, um, real estate in particular had a nice year last year, really great growth there. It's a portfolio. That's been a, you know, one of the hallmarks of that portfolio has been great credit metrics, as was mentioned in the prepared remarks. So we feel good about that. We're starting a call blitz here in the first quarter, we're going to have bankers all over that. We were a bit on defense last year. And so we just weren't out, you know, hitting it as hard. We were focused on credit. It was appropriate. And so we're turning back to a more offensive mindset and we'll have a program where bankers get, you know, points for making calls, take your boss on the call. You get more points, take your boss's boss. And, and so we're just, we're at our post. We're doing what we do. We're, we're knocking on doors, putting good proposals in front of good companies. And I think it will pay dividends. You know, hard to pinpoint exactly the inflection point, but, you know, we've said for some time now, the outlook for the second half of the year, we're encouraged.
spk04: Thanks so much.
spk06: Next question comes from Brady Gailey of KBW. Hey, thanks.
spk02: Good morning, guys. Good morning, Brady. I wanted to hit on loan growth. It's great to hear your optimism about loan growth in the back half of this year, but in between now and then, Do you think we should expect to see the same shrinkage in loans that we saw in the fourth quarter?
spk08: Brady, my answer would be probably not. I mean, fourth quarter had some unique things. We had the Main Street program that paid off some deals. We had this intentional reductions in energy and restaurant that are substantially complete now. We had really a combination of a variety of things. I mean, still the whole COVID impact. And it seems like, you know, all of those things are fading a bit. So I would expect it not to be a sharp link quarter.
spk05: Ray, I would just add that, you know, keep in mind that we do have the PPP loans. We've still got over $900 million of those that are, you know, going to be forgiven at some point.
spk02: Yep, yep. And then, Valerie, just an outlook on the margin. I know you have – you still have some accretable yield that's flown through there and then now – Obviously, it changes with the acceleration that happened in the fourth quarter. Maybe an outlook on the margin into 2021?
spk05: Yeah, sure. The margin is definitely impacted by the accelerated caller revenue. And so we've laid that out for you pretty clearly on slide 17 in our slide deck if you haven't seen that. But in a high-level summary, we had about $63 million in income from the callers. this year in interest income, it's going to go down to about $32 million next year. So clearly that's going to have an impact. You mentioned the accretion. It's going to kind of, you know, just kind of gradually decline, similar to how it has in the past. But on the rest of the margin, it's really going to be dependent upon the timing of that loan growth. You know, we've had huge success in our deposit cost this year, and, you know, there's still some opportunity for those to come down a little bit further. as we go into the year. So we'll continue to see positive movement there. But we've got, you know, we ended the year with $2 billion in cash on the balance sheet. And that's a whole lot of excess liquidity earning, you know, 18 basis points. So, you know, we're ready to leverage that into more earning assets when the time is right. And so, you know, that's really going to be the biggest dynamic in where our margin sits.
spk02: Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.
spk06: The next question is from Ken Zerbe of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
spk11: All right. Great. Thanks. Two questions. I guess the first one, it's good to hear you guys talk about buybacks. Obviously, with a 14% to 1 ratio, it looks like you have a lot of flexibility to do buybacks. Can you just talk about how much you're thinking? What is an appropriate amount? It does sound like it's starting in first quarter. Is that right? Thanks.
spk08: Yeah, Ken. The expectation would be that we would start as early as the first quarter. What the board has approved thus far is a $200 million total buyback, and the pace and timing of that is something that we will you know, play it by ear. We don't have a deadline or, you know, a fire drill, but you have known for us to be conservative with respect to capital and that'll continue. But yeah, we all agree there's some room there.
spk11: Got it. Okay, great. And just maybe one for Valerie, specifically on the loan yields, I get that there was some benefit to loan yields from the PPP fee acceleration, but it still looked like loan yields kind of were up quarter over quarter a little bit. Can you just talk about why that might have been the case and how you see loan yields specifically trending over the next couple of quarters? Thanks.
spk05: Yeah, sure. And you're exactly right. We did have a nice amount of loan fees come in this quarter, about $10 million in total part of that being PPP driven, but really part of that being related just to our own portfolio. When you strip out All of that. When you strip out the PPP impact, the accretion, the collar impact, and the fees, you get to really kind of a base portfolio yield of 367 for our loans. What we saw in the fourth quarter is actually new loans came on higher than that at 378. And so that certainly bodes well for the overall margin here. That compares to 371 that came in in the third quarter. And, you know, this quarter it was 63% CNI. And that's really one of the big factors that helps support that level, as well as the fact that we're having significant success in putting in loan floors. And so that also is helping support the rates right now.
spk08: Ken, I would just add, I know you track this as well as you should, and And I think a key point that Valerie made there is our mix of C&I. In other words, in comparing us to some others, you know, obviously our mortgage business yields there, you know, pull us down somewhat. But the C&I book is a decent margin business, good margin business, and I think one of the reasons why we're a touch higher than some of the others you look at.
spk11: That's perfect. All right, thank you. Thank you.
spk06: The next question comes from Steven Alexopoulos of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
spk10: Hey, good morning, everybody.
spk08: Good morning, Steven.
spk10: To start, first, looking at this slide on the roll forward on criticized loans, I'm looking at the quarterly on slide 12. It's very helpful. But if I look at the upgrades to pass, right, $196 million, and then the additions, $119 million, maybe for Billy, can you walk through... At this stage, what's driving the upgrades? Is it business conditions improving? Are there other factors? And same for the additions.
spk09: Yeah, hey, thanks, Stephen. It's very granular and widespread. I'd say a lot of it is On the upgrade front, you know, a lot of it's from our resolution efforts that we're getting into in our stress portfolio. So, you know, might be new equity coming in or some restructuring effort that would warrant the upgrade. As far as the additions, you know, the bulk of the additions are, you know, like we had mentioned in the prepared remarks and the more stress segments, hospitality, and then a few in kind of the senior assisted living. So it would be in the spaces that you would expect. So, um, that's how I think I would address that with you. Okay.
spk10: Okay. That's helpful. And then, uh, on the dividend, obviously positive news again in the quarter, Is the new dividend you're announcing, is this the new dividend or could this increase a bit further, do you think, given where capital levels are and you're not exactly back to where you were prior to the dividend being reduced?
spk08: Yeah, Stephen, I think it's fair to think of that as the most likely run rate for the dividend for the time being. We reevaluate it every quarter, so never say never. But, yeah, there was more of a kind of a thought about the year than there was a thought about the quarter when we were setting this dividend. Okay.
spk10: That's helpful. And then, Paul, lastly, so a big-picture question. You know, I think about Cadence really from the IPO. You guys were a growth bank. And in the past, we've seen many growth banks that needed to work for a credit challenge end up tightening the credit box. You have a new chief credit officer. With the end result being a higher quality loan portfolio moving forward, but one that didn't grow as it did in the past, how should we think about this going forward?
spk08: Yeah, I think you really asked the question in a very thoughtful way. So the way I think about it is take a step back. In the old days, smaller base, higher percentage growth, hired a big team, did some impressive percentages, elected to slow that growth in the fourth quarter of 18, you know, 19 and now COVID. And so I think the sort of cadence core growth capability would be in that four to six to, you know, maybe 7%. And, and, you know, when does that resume? We said, you know, hopefully second half of the year, but, but no, we won't have the double digit loan growth percentages from, from kind of the old days going forward. Okay.
spk10: Thanks for all the color.
spk08: Thank you.
spk06: The next question is from Brad Millsap with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
spk00: Hey, good morning, guys. Good morning, Brad. Valerie, I just wanted to follow up on the size of the balance sheet. I think I heard in your prepared comments that you really didn't think that you would take the investment portfolio much higher than maybe it currently is. You mentioned $2 billion of cash in the balance sheet at the end of the year. You've still got You know, roughly a billion dollars of PPP loans coming back. You know, assuming that liquidity sticks around, is it fair to assume you're just going to sit in Fed funds? I mean, I know you have a small amount of debt out there, but is that the way to think about the balance sheet? Just trying to get my arms around kind of the size of the balance sheet and the impact of the liquidity that you're thinking about?
spk05: Yeah, no, you're exactly right. There's going to continue to be excess liquidity on the balance sheet from some time. I mean, we're trying to optimize that as best as we can without positioning ourselves negatively as we look on out. You know, certainly we don't want the securities portfolio to get too large, certainly at these rates of putting on new securities. You know, the real trick is going to be when we see that net loan growth turn and be able to start effectively using that excess liquidity. But you're right, on the margin, you know, there's a couple of, you know, we've got some callable debt, we've got some maturing debt, certainly looking at everything we can do on the margin. And, you know, that's been one of the key things that we've, you know, we had strong, strong deposit growth in a year, even with bringing down our lower deposit costs. You know, we'll continue to whittle that deposit costs down at the margin. We've got the flexibility to do that.
spk00: Okay, great. And then just as a follow-up, Paul, you know, you guys have always, you know, kind of been real conservative in how you, you know, treat capital, you know, the income statement, et cetera. Just kind of curious in terms of the reserves, I mean, do you think that you'll be in a position that you would be taking a negative provision at any point? Or do you think that's, you know, where we sit today, that's really not in the cards at this point?
spk08: Yeah, Brad, it's hard to say. I mean, clearly... As we saw in the fourth quarter, we had some credits that were resolved, 100 cents on the dollar, that had some reserves in place, so we've got some reserve relief there. Net-net, you know, we're still looking at some downgrades in the portfolio. I mean, every quarter we have upgrades and downgrades, so that will continue. I think the answer to that is to be determined. Let's see how the year unfolds. I mean, we have been proactive with our reserve percentages. Time will tell.
spk05: Yeah, I would just add that we're at 2.89% on our reserve level. When you look at kind of a day one diesel reserve level, it was, I think, about 1.55%. I'm sure that we'll be higher than that, really somewhat on a more normalized basis. But that's a lot of room between here and there. And so at some point, as it's warranted by the credit environment, that percent of allowance should migrate down.
spk00: Great. Thank you, guys.
spk06: The next question is from Michael Rose of Raymond James. Please go ahead.
spk10: My questions have actually been asked and answered.
spk08: Thanks, guys. Thanks for joining us, Michael.
spk06: The next question will be from John Armstrong of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
spk03: Hey, thanks. Good morning. Good morning, John. A few follow-ups, but maybe bigger picture, Paul, can you touch a little bit on your footprint? You alluded to it earlier that you have some of the better markets, and I guess I want to get into some more details in a second, but just bigger picture, how do you feel about your footprint? Sure.
spk08: John, I really think the regions that we cover are some of the best growth markets in the United States. I love our Atlanta team. We've got a great team in Dallas. The Houston core group is always hardworking and contributes nicely. Our Tampa team is outstanding. Some of the smaller markets, Birmingham, Huntsville, really, really good markets and I'm proud of our bankers there. you know, when I start mentioning certain areas, I mean, our core business back in the golden triangle in Mississippi is, you know, not as much growth, but really solid markets and in a place where we're happy to be active and to be doing business. So it's a, it's a good combination for sure. And I like the growth outlook.
spk03: Okay, good. And I guess Valerie back to follow up on Brad's question. Is it, Safe to assume the near term, when you think about the loan growth, that any decline in reserves is likely through charge-offs, and we just have a very minimal, if any, provision requirement. Is that a fair way to look at it? I know, Paul, you mentioned lower charge-offs relative to the prior year, but is that the way we should think about reserves coming down?
spk05: Well, I think when you look at this quarter, while the percentage increased, the actual dollar amount came down. And so that is a factor of the various things that you mentioned, you know, obviously the lower balances and the net charge off. There are so many factors that factor into the reserve, you know, this whole environment. There's still a lot of uncertainty, not just on the credit front, but really just the impact of the virus. on the recovery and resurgence. And so all of those will have a play. But, you know, if you just kind of assume all of that is fairly stable, then yeah, credit migration, charge-offs, and growth in the portfolio or shrinkage, you know, those are key drivers.
spk03: All right. And then one more kind of a follow-up on Steve's question just on the longer-term thinking. I hope this comes out the right way, Paul, but you know that there are a lot of people where you need to rebuild trust on credit. And maybe it's you or Billy, can you just talk about what's different in terms of what you've done to the credit department, how you go about looking at sectors that you're in? And I know that a lot of this maybe isn't fair because it was a pandemic and it just kind of hit you. squarely in a couple of businesses, but just, you know, help give us a little bit of comfort, help us understand what's different as you go forward. I think that would help. Thanks.
spk08: Yeah, John, it's totally fair, and it's, yeah, definitely a question that, you know, we spent time on, our board risk committee spent time on. We've looked at every line of business. We've looked at underwriting guidelines. I mean, the biggest thing we looked at is leverage. What's the leverage profile? And starting in the fourth quarter of 18, you know, we felt like that was something that we should adjust. And we began pulling our underwriting metrics down. You know, we did have some disappointments in 19, if you're well aware, and investors are well aware. And so, you know, we were showing some really positive trends. And then COVID came along, and there are a couple of business lines that are hard hit by COVID. Restaurants, especially family casual dining and hospitality being And I know we reviewed those numbers with you. So you wouldn't say there's just a huge sea change. You would say that at the margin, there's just more and more focus, more and more caution, more and more scrutiny and diligence of each and every credit, each and every relationship. We take CRE, for example, there's zero change there. It's outstanding portfolio performed beautifully through COVID. So it really would be the CNI portfolio, anything leveraged without moderators, and then the family casual dining, and of course, hospitality, you know, the stress that, you know, that industry is dealing with is certainly well documented. So, I don't know, Billy, I'd like your comments.
spk09: Yeah, sure. And I'll echo the same, but if you really look back from when this trend started for us, I mean, an example, leverage loans have come down 31% since the third quarter of 19. We feel like the mix of that, kind of the restaurant book, the energy concentrations we had, is at a better place than it was then, just from a mix and a concentration standpoint. So, I mean, our daily activity, our weekly activity and loan committee is active. I do bring a slightly different perspective than we've had historically. And, you know, it's a balanced approach. I've been doing this my whole career. And I think that's just like Paul said, it's going to be at the margin. And at the margin, we're going to be on the conservative end of things.
spk03: Okay, thanks a lot.
spk06: As a reminder, if you have a question, please press star, send one. The next question comes from Matt Olney of Stevens. Please go ahead.
spk07: Hey, good morning, and thanks for taking the question. I want to go back to the hedge ineffectiveness that you guys highlighted a few weeks ago, and obviously we saw the big pull forward here in the fourth quarter. I don't really appreciate maybe all the accounting details behind this, but if loan balances continue to contract the first half of the year, could we see an additional pull forward of the remaining hedge beyond what you've laid out today?
spk05: So it is based on forecast. So in theory, if our forecast and effectiveness going forward was high and it came in lower, then you could have an additional level of ineffectiveness. But where we are at is we've got $33 million of this remaining gain that will come in in 2021 and the remaining $2 million in 2022. So even if it were, it wouldn't have a material impact in 2021.
spk07: Okay. Got it. And then, Valerie, you may have mentioned this in the prepared remarks. Any more details you can provide on the callable debt that you expect to retire and then beyond this, it sounds like you're also considering maybe some other borrowings or other debt tranches that you're considering pre-paying. Any more details you can discuss?
spk05: Yeah, what we've got is there's $40 million of callable sub-debt. And so that's available to be called and then on quarterly call dates. And then another $50 million of senior debt that matures in June of this year. And so obviously, given the excess liquidity, we don't need to be holding on to any of that debt.
spk08: And Matt, I would just add the combined savings from those are about $4.7 million a year. And this might interest you. $260 million in debt, our annual cost of that debt is about $12.7 million. It'll come down by $4.7 million. you think about that, that would be the equivalent of $5 billion in deposits at 25 basis points. So yeah, it's cheap capital if you need capital, but if you are well capitalized as we are, it's kind of expensive debt. So we're pleased to see it be reduced.
spk07: Yeah, good point. Thank you for that. And then just lastly on the operating expenses, I think I get the guidance for 2021 um the press release highlighted the eight and a half million dollars in the fourth quarter from the incentive compensation it sounds like that was a catch-up for the fourth quarter is that correct and so should we see the salary line decline in the first quarter there you're right there was some catch-up there and you know early in the year we really basically had no um
spk05: bonus accruals put into play, just with the concern about what the year could look like and so forth. But obviously that transpired differently as we went through the year, and we were able to add back some incentive dollars.
spk07: Okay, got it. Okay, that's all from me. Thank you, guys. Thanks, Matt.
spk06: That concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Paul Murphy for any closing remarks.
spk08: Great, well, thank you all for joining us. We're really hoping that we will be able to meet with many of you in 2021 and resume travel and back to a more normal lifestyle here. Also look forward in the future to explaining more, sharing more with you about our diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, our ESG program. We're very focused on being a great place to work and partnering with our communities. If you just kind of take a step back and say, what's the core competence at cadence today? You know, confidence took a hit back during shutdown for sure. We zero bonus accrual and we sort of hunkered down, you know, preparing for, for the worst and, um, core confidence at cadence is now fully recovered. Uh, we're back on the, on the field looking for business and building the franchise as we have done in the past, a bit more cautious and conservative than in prior periods, but still, um, active and hardworking and, um, look and do a good job for clients and build our business further, grow revenue, grow earnings, and create value for our shareholders. With that, we stand adjourned. Thank you.
spk06: The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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