George
Coordinator
Good day and welcome to the fourth quarter FY 2024 Cardinal Health, Incorporated earnings conference call. My name is George, I'll be your coordinator for today's event. Please note that this conference is being recorded and for the duration of the call, you're likely to be in listen only mode. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the presentation. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad to register your question. In order to allow you as many people as possible to ask a question, we ask that you please limit yourselves to one question each. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero and you will be connected to an operator. And I'd like to call our host today, Mr. Matt Simms, Vice President of Invest Relations. Please go ahead,
Matt Simms
Vice President of Investor Relations
sir. Welcome to this morning's Cardinal Health fourth quarter and fiscal 24 earnings conference call. And thank you for joining us. With me today are Cardinal Health CEO Jason Haller and our CFO Aaron Alt. You can find this morning's earnings press release and investor presentation on the investor relations section of our website at .cardinalhealth.com. Since we will be making forward looking statements today, let me remind you that the matters addressed in the statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. Please refer to our SEC filings and the forward looking statement slide at the beginning of our presentation for description of these risks and uncertainties. Please note that during our discussion today, the comments will be on a non-GAAP basis unless specifically called out as GAAP. GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations for all relevant periods can be found in the supporting schedules attached to our press release. For the Q&A portion of today's call, we kindly ask that you limit questions to one per participant so that we can try and give everyone an opportunity. With that, I will now turn the call over to Jason.
Jason Haller
CEO
Thanks, Matt. Good morning, everyone. Fiscal year 24 marked a year of strong operational execution and record financial results for Cardinal Health, delivered in tandem with significant strategic progress across the portfolio. On that note, we have three key headlines today. First, we finished the year with momentum, growing EPS 29% in both Q4 and fiscal year 24. Results exceeded guidance and full year EPS of $7.53 was 96 cents above the midpoint of our original outlook from investor day. We also delivered nearly $4 billion of adjusted free cash flow for the year, positioning us with approximately $5 billion of cash at year end, even after $1.25 billion of capital returned to shareholders this year and funding our growth investments. Second, we have managed through the transition of a significant customer and are raising our guidance for fiscal year 25 while also reconfirming our long term financial targets. And finally, we continue to advance our strategy to build upon the growth and resiliency of pharma and specialty, execute our GMPD improvement plan and accelerate our growth in key areas while optimizing our portfolio to maximize shareholder value creation. More on that momentarily, but first some brief reflections. This year, we continue to take decisive actions to simplify our business and drive performance, highlighted by the reorganization of our operating and segment reporting structure to enhance management focus while enabling efficiencies, accountability and transparency. We grew our largest and most significant business, pharmaceutical and specialty solutions, above our targeted long term growth rate. We saw ongoing stability and pharmaceutical demand, strong performance from our generics program and our specialty business grew revenue 14% for the year. As of fiscal year 24, our specialty business is now over $36 billion and we anticipate continued growth next year, despite the large contract expiration. The prioritized key growth areas and specialty with organic investments across therapeutic areas and the acquisition of specialty networks. In GMPD, we executed our improvement plan initiatives, returning the business to profitability and delivering approximately $240 million in year over year segment profit improvement. Notably, we achieved our year and inflation mitigation target, a critical milestone for the business. Across our other operating businesses, we collectively grew revenue 12% and segment profits 7% in fiscal year 24.
Aaron Alt
CFO
We've
Jason Haller
CEO
seen strong demand across nuclear, at home solutions and Optifrade and our purposeful investments and focus on performance excites us about how these businesses are positioned for the future. Overall, these results were achieved through our team's commitment to execute against the focus set of priorities to create value for our shareholders, our customers and ultimately for millions of patients. As we turn the page to fiscal year 25, our confidence is reinforced by our strong and resilient business with positive industry trends supporting our growth. And we continue to take actions to optimize not only the performance of our businesses, but also the financial strength of the broader enterprise. Before I hand the call over to Aaron, let me provide an update on our business and portfolio review, which as a reminder kicked off in September of 2022. Last June, we concluded our review of the former pharma segment highlighted at investor day with our enhanced organizational focus on specialty and decision to retain and further invest in our nuclear and precision health solutions business. Then in January, we finalized a review of the growth businesses within the former medical segment, determining the best course of action for shareholder value creation was to invest in and further develop at home solutions and Optifrade for long term growth, while also completing our resegmentation. All along management in collaboration with the business review committee and board has been reviewing GMPD from every angle as the team executes our turnaround plan. We deeply understand the business's opportunities and complexities and today have some preliminary conclusions to share through the lens of our portfolio review framework as seen on slide 20.
Matt Simms
Vice President of Investor Relations
In
Jason Haller
CEO
short, we remain committed to executing the GMPD improvement plan and our fiscal year 26 target of $300 million in segment profit. We were pleased and unsurprised to see significant interest in GMPD during our review. The business's core to the operations of so many healthcare providers and features not only our formidable distribution expertise, but a broad set of Cardinal Health brand products that are critical to patient care. Following our extensive review, we have gained confidence that we are best positioned to continue capitalizing on the meaningful growth and operational opportunities on the horizon for this business. Ultimately, we see more value creation potential ahead for our shareholders by continuing to drive the GMPD turnaround plan. Even more, our analysis uncovered additional opportunities to unlock near term value through further simplification actions and working capital improvements while continuing to drive the plan. From these initiatives, we plan to generate at least $500 million in cash over the next two years to be deployed according to our disciplined capital allocation framework. In recognition, we're raising our share repurchase expectations for fiscal year 25 to a total of $750 million, which is beyond our $500 million baseline. In terms of mechanics, the future reviews as the business continues to improve, the business review committee of our board, Sunset in July, is planned. And the ongoing value creation efforts are now being overseen by the board as a whole. As always, we take a thorough, objective, and open minded approach, focused on maximizing long term shareholder value creation, while continuing to invest in the business to ensure that our customers receive the products and service they expect. I'll go deeper into our strategic plans for our segments later in my remarks, but first, let me turn over to Aaron to review our results and guidance.
Matt Simms
Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, Jason, and good morning. Before discussing our Q4 success and our raised guidance, I want to highlight that today we are providing revised prior period financials for fiscal year 22 through Q3 fiscal year 24, reflecting slight net increases to non-GAAP EPS. During the preparation of our annual financial statements, management identified a long standing accounting error in part of our at home solutions business related to revenue recognition from third party payers. As a result, we have corrected this item in prior periods and also updated the timing of other previously recognized immaterial out of period items across the full enterprise. The net impact of these changes increases non-GAAP EPS by seven cents in fiscal year 24, six cents in fiscal year 23, and one cent in fiscal year 22. To be helpful, we've included supplemental schedules in our press release, along with further detail in our fiscal year 24 10K. Moving to our results, I'm pleased to reinforce that Q4 produced a strong finish to a year in which the Cardinal team made tremendous progress against our financial and strategic priorities. For both Q4 and the year, our EPS results reached historical high points with operating profit growth across Pharma, GMPD, and other also supported by improvements below the line in the form of lower interest costs, better tax rates, and lower share count. We delivered strong gross margin growth and matched it with well controlled SG&A even in an inflationary environment. In Q4, revenue increased 12% to $59.9 billion, reflecting revenue growth in the pharmaceutical and specialty solutions segment, the GMPD segment, and in all of the businesses making up other. Gross margin grew 5% to $1.9 billion, outpacing consolidated SG&A, which increased only 2% to $1.3 billion in the quarter, reflecting our disciplines cost management. This translated to total company operating earnings of $605 million, up 14% versus last year. Below the line, interest in other improved $6 million versus prior year to $10 million, benefiting from the quarter's strong cash outperformance. Our fourth quarter effective tax rate finished at 24.6%, .5% points lower than the prior year. Fourth quarter average diluted shares outstanding were $245 million, 4% lower than a year ago due to our previously announced share repurchases. The net result was fourth quarter EPS of $1.84, growth of 29%. Moving into our segment results, beginning with the pharma segment on slide 11. Fourth quarter revenue increased 13% to $55.6 billion, driven by brand and specialty pharmaceutical sales growth from existing customers. We continue to see broad based strength in pharmaceutical demand standing across product categories, brand, specialty, consumer health, and generics, and from our largest customers. Excluding GLP-1 sales, the segment's Q4 revenue growth would be 9%. As we've commented previously, GLP-1 sales do not meaningfully contribute to the bottom line. Segment profit increased 8% to $482 million in the fourth quarter, driven by positive generics program performance. Within our generics program, we continue to see volume growth and consistent market dynamics, including strong performance from Red Oak. Pharma segment profit growth in the quarter was 8%, despite an approximate $15 million margin headwind related to the unwind of the previously announced large customer transition. This unanticipated impact in the quarter was the primary difference between pharma's Q4 results and the midpoint of our prior guidance. Recall that we previously observed that the impact of the contract loss would be offset by new customers, specialty networks, and cost controls as part of our contingency planning. Consistent with these mitigation plans, the team began implementing cost control measures and started to see offsetting savings. We also saw strong growth from biopharma solutions in the quarter, including contributions from specialty networks. Turning to the GMPD segment on slide 12, we are quite pleased by the Q4 GMPD results, which confirmed our team's continued progress against the GMPD improvement plan. Fourth quarter revenue grew 2% to $3.1 billion, driven by volume growth from existing customers. We again saw growth in Cardinal brand volumes during the quarter. GMPD delivered Q4 segment profit of $47 million, generally consistent with our expectations and our prior guidance of approximately $65 million for the year before the prior period revisions. A $40 million year over year increase in Q4 was driven by an improvement in net inflationary impacts, including our mitigation issues, as we achieved our target of offsetting the gross impact of inflation by the end of fiscal year 24. We continue to be encouraged by the tenacity of the team in driving improved execution and customer satisfaction and service levels, while identifying additional opportunities to optimize the business. Finishing with the businesses that aggregate into other is seen on slide 13. Fourth quarter revenue increased 15% to $1.2 billion, driven by growth across all three businesses, At Home Solutions, Nuclear and Precision Health Solutions, and Optifrate Logistics. Segment profit grew 11% to $111 million, primarily driven by the performance of Optifrate Logistics. The Optifrate business continues to hit on all cylinders as increasing customer demand for our logistics management services is met with strong execution. In nuclear and at home solutions, we continue to invest strategically to supercharge growth. All three businesses, as key parts of our growth story, have received and will receive going forward, access to capital for expansion of their business models in support of our customers. I will be brief on the full year commentary. Fiscal 24 revenue increased 11% to $227 billion, with growth from all five operating segments. Gross margin increased 8% to $7.4 billion, while SG&A increased to more modest 4% to $5 billion, reflecting our year long efforts to control costs. Together, this resulted in fiscal 24 total operating earnings growth of 16% to $2.4 billion. All in, it was an excellent year across the business. Below the line, interest and other decreased 52% to $42 million, driven by increased interest income on cash and equivalents. Our annual effective tax rate finished at 21.7%. Average diluted shares outstanding were $247 million, 6% lower than a year ago due to share repurchases. The net result was fiscal 24 non-GAP EPS of $7.53, growth of 29%, well above our long term target of 12% to 14% growth. Now, before I turn to fiscal 25, let's cover the balance sheet. For fiscal 24, our ending cash balance was $5.1 billion. The cash position includes $200 million earmarked for the November 2024 debt maturity, with an additional $200 million to be paid through the time deposits held in prepaid assets and other on the balance sheet. To get there, we generated robust adjusted free cash flow, nearly $4 billion in fiscal year 24. Recall that at our investor day last June, I commented that cash flow remained an area of opportunity for us. Our excellent adjusted pre cash flow results in 2024 was almost entirely a result of the team's year long effort to optimize each element of our working capital while remaining focused on our service levels. To a much lesser degree, the results reflect balanced preparation for the Q1 contract expiration, which has now occurred in July, largely as we expected. We attribute only a couple of hundred million dollars of our fiscal 24 cash flow to beneficial timing related to the large contract unwind. I'll talk about the impact of the contract unwind on cash flow shortly as part of our guidance. Also, this year, we strengthened our balance sheet and achieved our targeted leverage ratio, which resulted in three positive outlook updates from the credit rating agencies. We also continue to deploy capital on shareholder friendly manner, returning more than our baseline commitment of capital return to shareholders through $750 million of share repurchases and $500 million in dividend payments. And we increased our dividend for the 35th year in a row. Now let's look forward and discuss our updated fiscal 25 guidance on slide 15. Today we are increasing our fiscal 25 EPS guidance to a new range of $7.55 to $7.70. This is an increase from the preliminary guidance during our Q3 call of at least $7.50. Slide 16 shows our fiscal 25 outlook for pharma. On revenue, we expect a decline between 4 and 6%, reflecting the nearly $40 billion revenue headwind from the large customer contract expiration. Normalizing for the large customer, fiscal 25 revenue growth would be between 15% and 18%. This reflects underlying growth generally consistent with our long term targeted rate of 10% due to strong overall pharmaceutical demand. As well as significant growth from the onboarding of new customers and existing customer expansions, primarily in the second half of the year. We are on track to address the segment profit impact of the large contract expiration with this incremental volume, contributions from specialty networks, and additional operational efficiencies. Note that all three of these offsets will have some level of a ramp to them throughout our fiscal 25. We expect consistent market dynamics for our generics program to continue. We also expect increased contributions from brand and specialty products, including biosimilars. We are assuming a modest year over year headwind related to the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. On brand manufacturer price increases, we expect an environment generally consistent with the past several years. Summing it all up, we anticipate pharma segment profit growth in the range of 1 to 3%, a testament to the strength and resiliency of this business. It is the case that segment profit growth will be more back half way to the usual. We expect first half segment profit to be slightly lower to flat versus the prior year with profit growth in the back half. Q3 should again be the highest absolute dollar profit quarter for the business. Turning to GMPD on slide 17. On the top line, we expect growth between 3% and 5% aided by low single digit utilization growth, as well as incremental volume from the onboarding of net new distribution customer wins. On the bottom line, we are reiterating our expectation of approximately $175 million in segment profit for fiscal year 25 on our path to approximately $300 million in segment profit by fiscal year 26 by executing the GMPD improvement plan. The plan is unchanged from what we shared a quarter ago. After successfully offsetting inflation at the end of this year, the annualization of these benefits will be a fiscal year 25 tailwind. The team remains focused on continuing to drive Cardinal brand growth through our five point plan. In fiscal year 25, we expect Cardinal brand sales growth between 3% and 5%. Simplification and cost optimization also continue with further opportunities in the pipeline to drive efficiencies and streamline our operations. Recognizing that while GMPD's plan may be simple, that does not make it easy. In the next five years, we expect a back half-weighted profit year in fiscal year 25, just like fiscal year 24. The quarterly cadence will be driven by seasonality and the ongoing commercial and operational improvements in the business. Additionally, we expect unfavorable manufacturing cost timing in the first half of the year, which, unlike last year, includes some startup costs and timing associated with expanding production that Cardinal Health owns domestic manufacturing plants to enhance our supply chain resiliency. Q1 should be the low point of the year due to these factors. Last year's updated Q1 shows $12 million of profit, and this year we expect Q1 to increase to up to $20 million with sequential improvements thereafter. Turning to other on slide 18, for each of nuclear, at-home solutions and Optifrate, we expect profit to be aided by the continued strength in demand, execution of our growth strategies, and benefits from our increased prioritization of these businesses with investments. Collectively, we expect revenue growth in the range of 10% to 12%, and segment profit growth of approximately 10% with all three businesses contributing to these targets. Stepping back, we are pleased to see anticipated profit growth across all of our operating segments in fiscal year 25. Moving below the line, we expect interest and other in the range of $140 million to $170 million. The large -over-year increase continues to be driven by lower average cash balances, lower short-term investment rates on our cash, and higher rates on our debt resulting from the refinancing of our calendar 2024 maturities. We continue to expect our fiscal year 25 effective tax rate to be in the range of 23% to 24%. With our near-term GMPT value creation issues, we have increased our fiscal year 25 share repurchase expectations beyond our baseline to $750 million on the year, leading to a share account guidance of approximately 243 million shares. Finally, we expect fiscal year 25 adjust to pre-cash flow of approximately $1 billion, reflecting the Q1 negative impacts from the large contract unwind, as well as quarter-end day of the week timing. While these dynamics will significantly affect our cash flow in Q1, our strong investment-grade balance sheet positions as well to manage through these fluctuations and continue making strategic investments in the business consistent with our disciplined capital allocation framework. To close, fiscal year 24 was a standout year filled with notable milestones. With adjusted EPS growth of 29% and adjusted pre-cash flow of nearly $4 billion, the Cardinal team delivered. With six weeks of fiscal 25 behind us, I'm pleased to say that the team is managing adeptly. Between the leaders we have throughout the organization, our dedicated team working tirelessly to serve our customers, and our clear strategy, we are confident that we will deliver once again. With that, I will turn it back over to Jason.
Jason Haller
CEO
Thanks, Aaron. Now I'll go deeper into our strategic priorities beginning with pharma and specialty solutions, where we remain focused on building upon our strong core foundation and expanding in specialty. Everything we do starts with the customer. Recently, we hosted our 32nd annual retail business conference, the largest in the industry, bringing together 5,000 attendees from across the country. As the trusted partner to retail pharmacy, we understand the critical role retail-independent pharmacies play in caring for their communities as they continue to expand their services as community healthcare destinations and demonstrate their remarkable value and resiliency. We continue to invest in our full suite of clinical, business, and reimbursement solutions to support our customers and provide industry advocacy to empower retail pharmacy now and into the future. Our Consumer Health Logistics Center, slated to open in 2025, will offer a comprehensive selection of -the-counter medications, treatments, and diagnostic solutions. Additionally, our new Vaccine Alliance program offers cost savings and other benefits from participating manufacturers to help pharmacies engage more patients and expand their immunization programs. We are constantly evaluating ways to bring innovative solutions to our pharmacy and manufacture partners through the breadth of our offerings and capabilities. As part of that commitment and in collaboration with CVS Health, we have formed Averon, a joint venture to source biosimilars. Averon builds upon our company's successful partnerships, like Red Oak Sourcing, with similar overall objectives for biosimilars. Simply put, we are increasing access to additional therapy options that will provide more choice for patients at a lower cost. Averon began by contracting a couple of products, including Hemera biosimilars, and we see opportunities for the program to expand over time. Continuing in specialty, we're pleased with how quickly specialty networks has integrated with our business and we continue to be impressed with the PPS Analytics Platform's insights generation capabilities and the team's clinical, technology, and operational expertise. As expected, we are leveraging specialty networks' demonstrated capabilities in urology, the largest area of its fully integrated model, to enhance our offering in oncology. The fully integrated specialty networks market offering is directly aligned with our strategy for Navista, our oncology practice alliance providing advanced technology and services. Over the course of the last year, we've built a world-class Navista team consisting of industry experts to find our offerings and -to-market strategy and completed our foundational technology build. The Navista team is engaging with an active pipeline of customers across the oncology marketplace, demonstrating to community oncologists how Navista can help them remain independent for good. Upstream with manufacturers, our leading specialty 3PL has continued its track record of growing faster than market, with nearly 20% growth during the year. We're leveraging these services as part of our comprehensive offering that further facilitates the commercialization and delivery of critical cell and gene therapies to providers and patients. Our new Advanced Therapy Solutions Innovation Center features a specialized deep frozen storage suite to handle the logistical challenges associated with cell and gene therapies. Additionally, the dedicated space provides opportunities for collaboration and improved process design supporting the ordering, invoicing, and accounts receivable process for pharmaceutical products. Across classes of trade, our commitment to service and solutions-oriented commercial approach has resonated with customers. A new health system customer onboarding that we recently completed and a few in the earlier phases of ramp-up are going smoothly, and we expect over $10 billion in total incremental revenue in fiscal year 25 from committed customer wins and expansions. Turning to GMPD, when we originally introduced the former medical improvement plan, we consistently highlighted that the first key to turning around the performance of the business was addressing the significant impact of inflation and global supply chain constraints on our business. Our team got to work with urgency, executing various mitigation actions to cover the significant operating losses we incurred. Fast forward to today, after two years of hard work, the GMPD business is on solid ground. We delivered an approximate $240 million -over-year improvement in segment profit in fiscal year 24. We exited the year successfully offsetting the gross impact of inflation. We've seen three consecutive quarters of -over-year segment revenue growth and four consecutive quarters of Cardinal Health brand volume growth. We grew Cardinal Health brand revenue 3% overall for the year and 4% in the U.S. Our customer loyalty index score for U.S. distribution remains up over 20 points from its pandemic low, and we're successfully retaining key distribution customers along with some recent wins. As we continue to dive into the business through our portfolio review, it's clear there are still significant opportunities to capture. I'll highlight a few. First, as Aaron mentioned, our progress on inflation mitigation in fiscal year 24 will annualize and be a significant -over-year tailwind to our results next year, even with a slight headwind expected from the recent cost increases in international freight. Between the actions we've taken to improve our resiliency, the diversity of our global supply chain, and some offsets across our broader portfolio of commodities, we're confident in our ability to continue to effectively mitigate supply chain inflation. Second, Cardinal Health brand leading indicators remain positive and continue to predict an acceleration in growth. We've seen a healthy overall utilization environment for a number of quarters now, and our five-point plan continues to produce encouraging results. Third, the disciplined execution of our simplification strategy has driven improved operational performance. With the business stabilized and only recently turned free cash flow positive, we see opportunities to drive targeted working capital improvements over the next two years. Additionally, we can broaden our simplification efforts, such as further optimizing our real estate and geographic footprints, while always prioritizing the needs of our customers as our North Star. Our team is energized to execute on the next phase of the improvement journey, focused on commercial excellence and continued simplification to create additional value for our customers and shareholders. In nuclear and precision health solutions, our leading positioning with 130 nuclear pharmacies and 30 pet sites across the country feeds our differentiated ability to partner with manufacturers in order to bring cutting-edge therapies to patients exactly when they need them. Our excitement continues to build around the opportunities to improve patient lives through the use of precision medicine, which we have been investing into heavily with our Center for Theranostics Advancement. We're seeing the results, with our theranostics business growing over 20% in fiscal year 24, driven by strong demand for prostate cancer theranostics products, such as T-Lex's and Leucix. In fiscal year 25, we expect similar theranostics growth and will continue to invest to meet the growing pipeline of opportunities, which includes cardiology and neurology, but overall is largely dominated by oncology. As an example, we will be expanding our support of novel prostate radioligand therapies with Novartis' Plovicto in fiscal year 25. We are also investing in increasing our cyclotron capacity and pet manufacturing geographic footprint to meet increasing demand for pet diagnostics, with the majority of emerging radiotherapeutics requiring a companion PET scan. Fiscal year 24 was a foundational year for our $2.9 billion at-home solutions business, as we laid the groundwork for future growth and efficiency. This business continues to grow revenue faster than market, not only aided by care moving into the home, but also our team's commercial execution. To drive operating leverage, we've been investing in our technology capabilities, such as new warehouses with -the-art automation. Just last month, we opened our brand new 350,000 square foot warehouse in South Carolina, featuring the fastest order fulfillment system in the market. This system is also operational in our central Ohio facility and planned for the new Texas Distribution Center we previously announced and expect to open in 2025. We're seeing fruits from our investments, with our fill rates currently the highest they've been in over three years, and our patient net promoter score up over 16% -over-year. The Optifrate logistics team delivered this year with exceptional performance. Our TotalView Insights platform continues to help customers uncover shipping inefficiencies and optimize delivery through data-driven insights. As a result, our customer loyalty index is at an all-time high. In fiscal year 25, to put it simply, we expect to continue our track record of great execution, helping our customers expand and bringing on new customers to benefit from our program and value. Across the enterprise, we are confident in the Cardinal team to continue our momentum and deliver our targeted growth in fiscal year 25 and beyond. Before I wrap up, the former CFO and me can't help but to acknowledge our team's tremendous progress on cash flow this year. With the record results in fiscal year 24, we're positioned to exceed the adjusted free cash flow expectations we outlined at Investor Day with at least $7 billion over the fiscal 24 to 26 period, even despite the large contract expiration. We possess the financial flexibility to continue investing in our business, returning capital to shareholders, and maximizing long-term shareholder value creation. In summary, fiscal year 24 was another great year, and we are excited to continue driving our company and healthcare forward. I want to thank our dedicated employees who serve our customers and continue our work to be healthcare's most trusted partner. With that, we will take your questions.
George
Coordinator
Thank you very much, Mr. Holler. Ladies and gentlemen, once again, if you wish to ask any questions, please press star one on your top- hold keypad and just make sure your line is not muted in order to let you see and reach your equipment. And also, please limit yourself to one question each. This first question is coming from Lisa Gill, calling from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Lisa Gill
JP Morgan
Thanks very much and good morning. Thanks for all the details, Jason. I just want to better understand just two things. One, a nice driver of the margin going into next year, you had originally said roughly 1%. Now you're talking 1% to 3%. I think you called out a couple of things, the specialty network, new customer, cost mitigation. But I'm just curious, especially in the new customer, is there anything unique about that contract or anything else that you would call out as we think about the margin improvement throughout 25?
Matt Simms
Vice President of Investor Relations
Good morning. Thank you for the question. Happy to talk about it. We are really pleased to raise our guide for the pharma business for fiscal 25. It really reflects our continued confidence in the team and continued confidence in the resiliency of that business, notwithstanding some of the puts and takes that we've been talking about in the last couple of quarters. I'll touch on the profile in a second, but I do want to emphasize on the revenue side of the house from a guidance perspective that we guided down 4% to 6% all in reflecting the $40 billion headwind on the low margin contract nonrenewal. But it's really up 15 to 18% on an adjusted basis if you take out the impact of that customer loss. Within that 15 to 18% is $10 billion of new revenue, new customers, and expansions of service with existing customers. That's on top of an underlying 10% growth with the existing business. From that you can tell that we are growing the portfolio and doing what we said we were going to do with our existing customers and adding on both new customers and expansions with existing customers to get to that revenue base. That supports the increase in guide, the 1% to 3% on the profitability side of the house. The things we call that during the earnings call, it's the consistent market dynamics, it's the generic volume growing, the low single digit growth in core, the high single digit growth in specialty, the strong overall Rx demand. There's a lot of things going on, but we are confident in our plans as we carry forward. We don't comment on the margin profile of any particular customer, particularly in the context of a new customer. We were delighted to announce formally the public's win today in our earnings release. I'm not going to comment on their profitability, but I will observe that we have publicly commented on the low margin nature of the business that we've lost. That certainly doesn't hurt us as we carry forward. Jason, I think you would add? Nothing to add.
George
Coordinator
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Eric Pertscher calling from Nefron Research. Please go ahead.
Eric Pertscher
Nefron Research
Thank you. I think it's fair to say there was some concern coming into the quarter on the increase in macro freight trends and other input costs. I know you mentioned you were able to offset that. Can you give us a sense of how this looked to you in terms of the size of that increase versus what we've seen in the past? Was it material and how it looked under the current or new contracts versus legacy contracts and the ability to pass that along to your customers?
Jason Haller
CEO
Sure. Thanks for the question, Eric. I think it's important to just go back in time a little bit in the last 12 months. A year ago when we were sitting here, certainly the freight costs had gone all the way back down to historic levels. So we were enjoying really the run up had come all the way back down. And it was at the beginning of the calendar year, so in our third quarter when the Red Sea issues first began and that's when we saw the first spike. And the reason I remind you of that is that first spike was known come springtime when we gave our initial guidance for GMPD. And so we knew about that first step up already. And that's been factored in from the guidance from day one. Yes, there has been further increases since then. But when you look at the combined two increases, the two different steps, first in January, then in the spring, they still are woefully short of where we were a couple of years ago. When the whole supply chain was under pressure, where even when we were spending two, three times the current levels, we were having difficulty in actually getting reasonable service. So yes, the costs are higher, but not nearly as high as they used to be. And most importantly, the supply chain is functioning a lot more efficiently than it was before. Long way of saying, Eric, that yeah, there's a little bit of an increase here. It's something we monitor and manage very, very tightly. But it's not the point where it requires widespread price adjustments accordingly, at least not yet. And in addition to that, it's important that we look at the overall inflationary environment. And we talked about this a couple of years ago at the peak. We had a lot of oil and petroleum based products, including fuel and other type of freight that was also a big issue. Those are actually a little bit softer in terms of the cost. So overall, net net we're managing through it better than we have before. And overall, we have some puts and takes that are all very manageable. We'll continue to evaluate the pricing necessary within that. But at this stage, we haven't had to exercise that lever to near the extent that we did in the past.
Operator
Operator
Next question, please.
George
Coordinator
Yes, our next question will be from Michael. Cherni calling from Learing Partners. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Michael Cherni
Learing Partners
Good morning and thank you for taking the question. Maybe if I could dive a little bit more into the underlying farmer growth, if you can. You did a good job outlining some of the moving pieces on lost contract versus new. Is there any way you can give us a bit more color on where you expect the profit streams to lie from specialty and then also a bit more color on the COVID hangover, just so that we can have a better understanding. I guess maybe the simple straightforward question is, where will you be on a exit run rate on farmer growth exiting the year, given all the moving pieces you have to start the year.
Jason Haller
CEO
Yeah, let me try to address a few of those pieces. So specialty is absolutely a key part of this story and why we still anticipate being able to grow this business next year. We highlighted in our comments that in fiscal 24 for the year we saw another year of 14% growth. You may recall it or investor day last year, the specialty business CAGR over the prior three years was anticipated at that time to be 14% as well. So another year strong growth driven by the widespread investments that we have made and continue to make. We talked today about a couple of interesting growth drivers for the future, whether it's our advanced therapy solutions business, the new venture with CVS for Averon focused on biosimilars. Biosimilars in general has been a rising tide type of benefit over the last several years. And of course, then our acquisition, especially networks, which closed in March and has a, you know, eight, nine month type of year over year benefit tailwind. So these are all areas that are driving our specialty business to some degree in fiscal 24, but they're all examples of where we would expect that to continue to grow over fiscal 25 to help mitigate for that contract non renewal that we think, you know, while that growth will be slower in 25 due to that. I also made the comment in the remarks that even in spite of this overall revenue reduction for the enterprise for the pharma segment and the impact of that contract non renewal, we still expect our specialty business to grow in fiscal 25 in spite of that. So that tells you that our run rate as we lap fiscal 25 and that non renewal, we would anticipate it to be very consistent with the long term algorithm that we've highlighted in the past, which, you know, from a profit perspective has been defined as low single digit type of product profit growth for our PD core business and double digit growth for specialty. So we'll continue to look at other opportunities to invest organically as well as in organically to continue to feed that growth.
Operator
Operator
Next question,
George
Coordinator
please. Our next question today will be coming from Erin Wright. Hi, Morgan Stanley.
Erin Wright
Morgan Stanley
Great, thanks. So in terms of this fiscal 25 guide, are there any changes in terms of how you were thinking about just the optimum unwind in terms of stranded costs or otherwise and just given the building contributions, whether it's specialty networks or the new customer wins with that often offset, I guess, how should we think about that cadence in terms of the split of first half versus second half or however you want to define it on an EPS perspective given some of those moving pieces in the first half.
Jason Haller
CEO
Thanks. Yeah, I'll let Erin walk through some of the cadence elements of your question, but I wanted to stress this upfront, which you should have heard from these messages are very, very similar words and phrases that we use last quarter. The plan is unchanged. Of course, we get a little bit smarter. We sharpen our pencils a little bit and we get a better understanding of where our exit rate is for 24, but all the factors that we are talking about today with this business are very similar to what we walked through in the past and of course all the investments that we made this last year. Erin, a few thoughts on the cadence?
Matt Simms
Vice President of Investor Relations
Sure. So the way to think about it is Optimum was an existing customer with us until the end of our Q4. And you can see the results in Q4. We don't need to go deeper on that. But what did also happen in Q4 was us being incredibly planful around the impact to our operations as well as to our financials of that customer unwind. We've talked in the past, we talked during our last earnings call, around the three offsetting actions, the contribution of specialty networks. Of course, the new customer wins the expansion with existing customers as well as further cost optimization opportunities and we're pleased that the team got on it, got ahead of it, and they've already been executing in that respect. And so the guidance we're able to provide today we view as relatively consistent with what we provided in Q3, but with an additional degree of confidence because the plans are behind us and that we're acting in that way. The non-renewal will impact our Q1. There's no way to avoid that. They were a large, low margin customer. And as we've talked about, the new customers coming on board are largely back half loaded. And so we will have a timing difference relative to prior years and that will impact certainly our revenue and profitability timing over the course of the year. There's also a cash impact, right? The the unwind of the negative working capital position there is a Q1 impact for us and a key reason why we are carefully monitoring our cash flow during the first quarter, of course, balanced with the fact that we are delighted with the strong adjusted cash flow and the strong cash balance at the end of our Q4. So look, on balance, the cost optimization is already in play. The special networks is already in play and we continue to work on the customer expansions and the new customer onboarding and we will make that successful as well.
George
Coordinator
Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Allen Lutz calling from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Aaron Alt
CFO
Good morning and thanks for taking the questions. One for Aaron. Can you talk about how gross profit performed relative to your internal model? And then are you seeing any impact from insulin pricing changes or Humira shareships to gross profit dollar growth? And then are there any insights or thoughts around the biosimilar launch for Stellara?
Matt Simms
Vice President of Investor Relations
Thanks. I'll start. Look, I would observe that our gross margin progression went largely as we anticipated over the course of the quarter and the year. We have a very complicated business managing between the two, the various parts and no real surprises from my chair in that way. Second part of the question was? So,
Jason Haller
CEO
yeah, let me take that. It was related to, I think, just the general impact of insulin pricing and there's also a Humira element there. So probably a couple different questions. Within the quarter, we did, as Aaron highlighted before, we saw, of course, the ongoing benefit of the GLP-1 growth. But we did have a similar offset as it relates to the pricing change for the WAC insulin adjustments that happened at the beginning of the calendar year. So until we get through the second quarter of fiscal 25, we'd anticipate there to be a bit of an offset related to that price change. There was also a question around Humira and I assume just the biosimilar type of migration. So we see that it started to move a little bit more. Certainly, some of the actions that CVS has done more broadly in the marketplace seems to have moved things along a little bit further. It's still fairly low penetration throughout the broad industry. But generally speaking, we have seen that start to pick up a little bit. I wouldn't say meaningfully within the quarter. Maybe a little bit even afterwards, but it's still at fairly low penetration rates. It's one of the reasons why we're so focused on biosimilars and with our joint venture with Avron is just to continue to look for ways to increase access for patients that need that therapy at an affordable cost. So we'll continue to do our part there. Next question, please.
George
Coordinator
Yes, sir. Our next question today will be coming from Kevin Caliendo of UBS. Please go ahead.
Kevin Caliendo
UBS
Thanks. Thanks for taking my question. So I'm just trying to triangulate some of the things we've learned this quarter about the GMPD business. You're talking about winning more share of pocket. We're seeing you make investments in domestic plants. We've seen shipping costs go higher. At the same time, we've seen owns and minor and Medline put up stronger than expected results in McKesson and Henry Shine put up worse than expected results and guide lower in those segments. Is it maybe fair to say that you and your peers on the hospital side are moving downstream at all to try to capture greater percentage of the health system business that's not just in the acute care side? Is that a trend that's happening? And I guess the second part of that is the investments in domestic driven by the idea that now you could be more because shipping costs are higher or costs overseas tariffs are coming that the domestic manufacturing can be more competitive on the price basis versus importing?