Caterpillar, Inc.

third quarter of 2023 earnings call. I'm Ryan Fiedler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Jim Umpleby, Chairman and CEO, Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer, Kyle Epley, Senior Vice President of the Global Finance Services Division, and Rob Rangel, Senior IR Manager. During our call, we'll be discussing the third quarter earnings release we issued earlier today. You can find our slides, the news release, and a webcast recap at investors.caterpillar.com under events and presentations. The content of this call is protected by U.S. and international copyright law. Any rebroadcast, retransmission, reproduction, or distribution of all or part of this content without Caterpillar's prior written permission is prohibited. Moving to slide two. During our call today, we'll make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We'll also make assumptions that could cause our actual results to be different than the information we're sharing with you on this call. Please refer to our recent SEC filings in the forward-looking statements reminder in the news release for details on factors that, individually or in aggregate, could cause our actual results to vary materially from our forecasts. A detailed discussion of our many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings. On today's call, we'll also refer to non-GAAP numbers. For reconciliation of any non-GAAP numbers to the appropriate U.S. GAAP numbers, please see the appendix of the earnings call slides. Now, let's turn to slide three and turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Jim Umplevy.

Thanks, Ryan. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Before discussing our results, I'd like to take a moment to acknowledge the tragic events in the Middle East. We are deeply saddened by the loss of life and are hopeful for a quick and peaceful resolution. The Caterpillar Foundation is donating $1 million to the American Red Cross and its network of Red Crescent societies in the region to support the humanitarian needs of those impacted. As we close out the third quarter, I want to thank our global team for delivering another strong quarter. This included double-digit top-line growth, strong adjusted operating profit margin, and robust MENT free cash flow. Our results continue to reflect healthy demand across most of our end markets for our products and services. We remain focused on executing our strategy and continue to invest for long-term profitable growth. I'll begin with my perspectives about our performance in the quarter. I'll then provide some insights about our end markets. Lastly, I'll provide an update on our sustainability journey. Moving to quarterly results, it was another strong quarter. Sales and revenues increased 12% in the third quarter versus last year. Adjusted operating profit margin improved to 20.8%, up significantly year over year. We also generated $2.9 billion of MENT free cash flow in the quarter. Sales were generally in line with our expectations, while both adjusted operating profit margin and MENT-free cash flow in the third quarter were better than we expected. In addition, we ended the quarter with a healthy backlog of $28.1 billion. Backlog is a function of demand and lead times. As I've mentioned, demand remains healthy in most of our end markets. Due to improving supply chain conditions, product availability and lead times have improved for many products. Dealers and customers can wait longer to place orders, which has led to a moderation in order rates as expected. In addition, we have seen a reduction in dealer orders for building construction products, which we anticipated due to the changeover to CAD engines that we previously discussed, and for excavation, in anticipation of dealers reducing their inventories in the fourth quarter. Although our backlog decline is expected, it still remains elevated as a percentage of revenues compared to historic levels. While we continue to closely monitor global macroeconomic conditions, We now expect our full year 2023 results to be better than we anticipated during our last earnings call. Turning to slide four, in the third quarter of 2023, sales and revenues increased by 12% to $16.8 billion, driven primarily by favorable price realization as well as volume growth. Sales increased in each of our three primary segments. Compared with the third quarter of 2022, overall sales to users increased 13%, which was below our expectations. Energy and transportation sales to users increased 34%, but was lower than expected due to some supply chain challenges for large engines and the timing of gas turbine and international locomotive deliveries. For machines, which includes construction industries and resource industries, sales to users rose by 7%, in line with expectations. Sales to users in construction industries were up 6%. North American sales to users increased as demand remained healthy for non-residential and residential construction. Non-residential continued to benefit from government-related infrastructure and construction projects. Residential sales to users in North America also increased in the quarter. EME sales to users were up slightly, primarily due to continuing strength in Middle East construction activity. In Latin America and Asia Pacific, sales to users declined in the quarter. In resource industries, sales to users increased 10%. In mining, sales to users increased, with commodities remaining above investment thresholds. Within heavy construction and quarry and aggregates, sales to users also increased, supported by growth for infrastructure-related projects. In energy and transportation, sales to users increased by 34%. All applications saw higher sales to users in the quarter. Oil and gas sales to users benefited from strong sales of turbines and turbine-related services. We also saw continued strength in sales of reciprocating engines into oil and gas applications such as Tier IV dynamic gas blending, repowering well servicing fleets, and gas compression. Power generation sales to users continued to remain positive due to favorable market conditions including strong data center growth. Industrial and transportation sales to users also increased. Dealer inventories increased by $600 million in the quarter, led by construction industries and followed by energy and transportation. In construction industries, the increase was in North America and some of our most constrained product lines, including BCP and earth moving. We remain very comfortable with the total level of dealer inventory which is within the typical range. Andrew will provide more color later in the call. Adjusted operating profit margin increased to 20.8% in the third quarter, a 430 basis point increase over last year. Adjusted operating profit margin was better than we had anticipated. Relative to our expectations, we saw lower than expected manufacturing costs, including freight, as well as slightly favorable price realization, which included a positive impact from geographic mix. Moving to slide five, we generated strong MENT free cash flow of $2.9 billion in the third quarter and $6.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2023. Year to date, we returned $4.1 billion to shareholders, which included about $2.2 billion in repurchase stock and $1.9 billion in dividends. We remain proud of our dividend aristocrat status and continue to expect to return substantially all M, E, and T free cash loader shareholders over time through dividends and share repurchases. Now on slide six, I'll describe our expectations moving forward. As I mentioned earlier, we now anticipate the full year to be better than we previously expected. We expect our adjusted operating profit margin to be slightly above the targeted range relative to the corresponding level of sales. This positive operating performance increases our expectation for M, E, and T free cash flow, which we now expect will exceed the $4 to $8 billion target range for the full year. This outlook for the adjusted operating profit margin and M, E, and T free cash flow reflects healthy customer demand and our strong operating performance. Now we'll discuss our outlook for key end markets, starting with construction industries. In North America overall, we continue to see positive momentum. We expect continued growth in non-residential construction in North America due to the impact of government-related infrastructure investments and a healthy pipeline of construction projects. Although residential construction growth is moderated, we expect it to remain healthy. In Asia Pacific, excluding China, we expect growth in construction industries due to public infrastructure spending in support of commodity prices. As we have mentioned during previous earnings calls, we anticipate continued weakness in China and expect it to remain well below our typical range of 5% to 10% of enterprise sales. In IAMI, we anticipate the region will be slightly down as weakness continues in Europe, partially offset by continuing strong construction demand in the Middle East. Construction activity in Latin America is expected to be about flat versus strong 2022 performance. In resource industries, we continue to see a high level of quoting activity. In mining, Customer product utilization remains high, the number of parked trucks remains low, and the age of the fleet remains elevated. Order rates are slightly lower than we expected at this time, reflecting continued capital discipline by our customers. We continue to believe the energy transition will support increased commodity demand over time, expanding our total addressable market and providing further opportunities for long-term profitable growth. In addition, customer acceptance of our autonomous solutions continues to grow. This is evidenced by the announcement this morning with Freeport-McMoran, who will convert their fleet of Cat 793 large mining trucks at an Arizona copper mine to autonomous haulage using Cat Mine Star Command. We also expect heavy construction and quarry and aggregates to remain in healthy levels due to major infrastructure and non-residential construction projects. Moving to Energy and Transportation. In oil and gas, we remain encouraged by continuing strong demand for CAT reciprocating engines and gas compression. As we said last quarter, well-servicing in North America is showing some short-term moderation, but we remain optimistic about future demand. CAT reciprocating engine demand for power generation is expected to remain strong, primarily driven by data center growth. New equipment and services for solar turbines in both oil and gas and power generation remain robust. Industrial demand is expected to soften slightly from recent high levels, but remains well above our historical averages. In transportation, we anticipate strength in high-speed marine as customers continue to upgrade aging fleets. As we've described, we continue to see strength in most of our end markets. Based on our backlog, dealer inventory, and current market conditions, we expect to have another good year in 2024. We will provide additional information during our fourth quarter call. Moving to slide seven, we continue to advance our sustainability journey. We're helping our customers achieve their climate-related objectives by continuing to invest in new products, technologies, and services that facilitate fuel flexibility, increased operational efficiency, and reduced emissions. For example, Caterpillar provides a number of low-carbon intensity solutions to customers. In construction industries, the CAT 980XE wheel loader which features a CAT designed and manufactured continuous variable transmission, improves fuel efficiency by as much as 35% and reduces CO2 emissions by as much as 17% compared to the previous model. We also introduced the new CAT G3600 Gen 2 engine, the latest evolution of the powerful G3600 series offering lower emissions. With more than 8,500 CAT G3600 units in the field, The Gen2 engine is designed to build upon the platform's robust performance to provide a 10% increase in power and lower emissions compared to the previous model. We've also made several joint announcements with customers that demonstrate our commitment to supporting their climate-related objectives. I'll highlight one here. In September, Caterpillar and Albemarle introduced a unique collaboration aimed to support their efforts to establish Kings Mountain, North Carolina, as the first ever zero-emissions lithium mine in North America, while also making lithium available for use in catecholar battery production. These examples reinforce our ongoing sustainability leadership and how we're helping our customers build a better, more sustainable world. With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew.

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with commentary on the third quarter results, including the performance of our segments. Then I'll discuss the balance sheet and cash flow before concluding with our assumptions for the fourth quarter and fourth year. Beginning on slide eight, our overall operating performance was strong. Adjusted operating profit margin, adjusted profit per share, and MENT free cash flow all were better than we expected, while sales grew in line with our expectations. Based on the strong third quarter and year-to-date operating performance, we now expect that the adjusted operating profit margin for the year will be slightly above the top end of our target range at the corresponding level of sales. We also anticipate that MENT free cash flow will exceed the target range of $4 to $8 billion. In summary, sales and revenues increased by 12% or $1.8 billion to $16.8 billion. The sales increase versus the prior year was driven primarily by price realization as well as higher sales volume. Operating profit increased by 42%, or $1 billion to $3.4 billion. The adjusted operating profit margin was 20.8%, an increase of 430 basis points versus the prior year. Profit per share was $5.45 in the third quarter of this year. This included restructuring costs of $0.07 per share as compared to $0.08 in the prior year. We continue to expect restructuring expenses of about $700 million for the full year. Adjusted profit per share increased by 40% to $5.52 in the third quarter compared to $3.95 last year. Other income of $195 million was lower than that than the third quarter of 2022 by $47 million. The decline was driven by less favorable currency impact in the quarter related to M, E, and T balance sheet translation as compared to the prior year, along with the recurring increase in a pension expense of approximately $80 million per quarter. Higher investment and interest income acted as a partial offset. The provision for income taxes in the third quarter, excluding discrete items, reflected a global annual effective tax rate of 22.5%, which is the rate we now expect for the full year. The slightly lower than expected tax rate, along with discrete items, added about 14 cents to profit per share in the quarter. Moving on to slide nine. As I mentioned, the 12% increase in the top line versus the prior year was primarily due to price realization as well as higher sales volume. Volume improved as sales to users increased by 13%, while year-over-year changes in dealer inventory acted as a slight offset. Overall, the magnitude of the sales increase was in line with our expectations. However, by segment, construction industry sales were higher, resorted industries were in line, and energy and transportation sales were lower than we had anticipated. Services revenues increased in the third quarter. We will update you with our progress towards our services growth target when we report our fourth quarter results as is our normal practice. Price realization was slightly better than we had expected for the quarter. However, as we anticipated, we did see the magnitude of the year-over-year price effects moderate compared to the second quarter as we lapped prior year price increases. Volume was slightly below our expectations. As Jim mentioned, sales to users were lower than we had anticipated, principally in energy and transportation. However, this was nearly offset by the increase in dealer inventory versus our expectations of it being about flat for the quarter. The increase in dealer inventory was driven primarily by construction industries. There we had stronger than expected shipments in North America, particularly in building construction products and earth moving. Within North America, these products remain constrained and are near the bottom end of the typical dealer inventory range of three to four months of sales. We also saw some dealer inventory increase in energy and transportation within the quarter. I remind you that dealer inventory in energy and transportation and resource industries is mainly a function of the commissioning pipeline, with over 70% of dealer inventory in these segments backed by firm customer orders. Because dealer inventory is more a function of commissioning in resource industries and energy and transportation, it is difficult for us to predict in these two segments. I will discuss further our full year expectations for dealer inventories a little bit later. Moving to slide 10, third quarter operating profit increased by 42% to $3.4 billion, while adjusted operating profit increased by 41% to $3.5 billion. Price realization, which included a slight benefit from a shift in the geographic mix of sales, and sales volume were favorable in the quarter. Our largest headwinds to operating profit were higher SG&A and R&D expenses and higher manufacturing costs. SG&A and R&D expenses included higher strategic investment spend. Manufacturing cost increases included higher material costs and unfavorable cost absorption as we reduced our inventories compared to a corresponding increase in the third quarter of 2022. Lower freight costs acted as a partial offset within manufacturing costs. The adjusted operating profit margin of 20.8% improved by 430 basis points. This was better than we had anticipated, primarily due to favorable manufacturing costs of which freight was the largest contributor. Also, the slightly better than expected price held margins. Now I'll discuss the performance of the segments. On slide 11, construction industry sales increased by 12% in the third quarter to $7 billion, primarily due to favorable price realization. By region, sales in North America rose by 31% due to higher sales volume and favorable price. As I mentioned, supply chain improvements enabled stronger than expected shipments in North America, which supported some dealer restocking. Sales of equipment to end users were in line with our expectations for the region. Sales in Latin America decreased by 31%, primarily due to lower sales volume, partially offset by favorable price. In IAME, sales increased by 8%, mainly due to favorable price and currency impacts. Sales in Asia Pacific decreased by 8%, primarily due to lower sales volume driven by lower sales of equipment to end users. Third quarter profit for construction industries increased by 53% versus the prior year to $1.8 billion. The increase was mainly due to federal price realization. The segment's operating margin of 26.4% was an increase of 710 basis points versus last year. Margin exceeded our expectations on better volume, price, and lower than anticipated manufacturing costs, primarily freight. Turning to slide 12, resource industry sales grew by 9% in the third quarter to $3.4 billion. The increase was primarily due to favorable price realization, partially offset by lower sales volume. Volume decreases, higher sales of equipment to end users were more than offset by lower aftermarket parts volume, which reflected changes in dealer buying patterns. Third quarter profit for resource industries increased by 44% versus the prior year, to $730 million, mainly due to favorable price realization. Profit was partially offset by the impact of lower sales volume, which included unfavorable product mix. The segment's operating margin of 21.8% was an increase of 540 basis points versus last year. Margin was better than we had expected, primarily due to lower than anticipated manufacturing costs driven by freight and price. Now on slide 13. Energy and transportation sales increased by 11% in the third quarter to $6.9 billion. Sales were up across all applications. Oil and gas sales increased by 26%. Power generation sales were higher by 21%. Industrial sales rose by 5%. And transportation sales increased by 6%. Third quarter profit for energy and transportation increased by 26% versus the prior year to $1.2 billion. The increase was mainly due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume, partially offset by higher SG&A and R&D expenses, unfavorable manufacturing costs, and currency impacts. SG&A and R&D expenses reflected ramping investments related to strategic growth initiatives. A reminder that most of our strategic investments relating to electrification and alternative fuels occur in the segment, which impacts reported margins. The segment's operating margin of 17.2% was an increase of 210 basis points versus the prior year. Margin was lower than we had anticipated, primarily due to lower than expected sales volume impacted by supply chain challenges for large engines and delivery delays for solar turbines. Moving to slide 14, financial products revenue increased by 20% to $979 million, primarily due to higher average financing rates across all regions. Segment profit decreased by 8% to $203 million. The decrease was mainly due to a higher provision for credit losses at Cap Financial. The unfavorable impact reflects a challenging comparison as we had reserve releases in the prior year as compared to a more typical provision expense in the third quarter of 2023. Of note, though, through the third quarter of this year, provision expense for a comparable nine-month period is at the lowest level for over 20 years. Business activity remains strong and our portfolio continues to perform well, with past dues and write-offs at historic low levels. Past dues in the quarter were 1.96%, a four basis point improvement compared to the third quarter of 2022, and a decrease of 19 basis points compared to the second quarter. Retail new business volume increased versus the prior year, and though it declined compared to the second quarter, this follows the typical seasonal pattern. In addition, we continue to see strong demand for used equipment, and used inventory remains at low levels. Now on slide 15, our ME&T free cash flow has been robust this year with another $2.9 billion generated during the third quarter. With $6.8 billion generated through the first three quarters of this year, we expect to exceed our target of $4 to $8 billion this year. From a working capital perspective, we had a small inventory decrease of around $200 million in the quarter. Looking ahead, we expect our inventory levels will continue to decrease as we see sustained supply chain improvement. CapEx in the third quarter was around $400 million. With about $1.1 billion in CapEx through the first three quarters, we continue to expect around $1.5 billion for the full year. Our balance sheet remains strong. We have ample liquidity with an enterprise cash balance of $6.5 billion and we hold an additional $4.3 billion in slightly longer-dated liquid marketable securities to improve yields on that cash. Now on slide 16, I will share some high-level assumptions for the fourth quarter and the full year. During the fourth quarter, we anticipate slightly higher sales as compared to the prior year. Price should remain favorable. We expect sales to users to continue to support good underlying growth. though changes in dealer inventories should act as an offset. As a reminder, we saw dealers increase inventories by $700 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, whilst we expect a decrease in the fourth quarter of this year. Specifically in construction industries, we do not expect the seasonal sales increase typically seen from the third to the fourth quarter, though sales to users are expected to increase on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. Instead, we anticipate lower shipment volumes as we complete the CAT engine changeover in building construction products and dealers reduce their inventories principally of excavators. This compares to a dealer inventory increase in the fourth quarter of 2022. Though we now expect that dealer inventory in construction industries will be higher at the end of 2023, than it was at the year in 2022, we still expect it to be within the typical three to four months of sales range. A reminder, this is an average across all dealers and all products in construction industries and is difficult to predict with precision given over 150 independent dealers and hundreds of different products. Similar to last quarter, there are still areas and or products where dealers would like to have more inventory. As Jim has mentioned, we are very comfortable with the level of inventory held by dealers overall. In resource industries, we anticipate slightly lower sales as compared to the third quarter as a result of improvements in availability. We also expect lower sales versus the prior year driven by changes in dealer inventory. In the fourth quarter of 2022, there was an increase in dealer inventories for resource industries, while we expect a decrease in the fourth quarter of this year. We expect sales in energy and transportation to increase in the fourth quarter as compared to the third quarter with higher solar turbines and rail deliveries. However, keep in mind that we continue to work through supply chain challenges, primarily impacting large engines. We also anticipate some moderation in industrial sales during the fourth quarter compared to recent high levels. Now our common expectations for margins. We've provided our adjusted operating profit margin target chart to assist you in your modeling process. Based on our current planning assumptions, we anticipate the adjusted operating profit margin to be slightly above the target range for the full year 2023. This is based on the corresponding estimated level of sales. Your expectation of total enterprise sales this year will inform where margins could finish for the year. Specific to the fourth quarter, we anticipate the adjusted operating profit margin to be lower than the third quarter. We anticipate lower than normal volume leverage, particularly impacting construction industries for the reasons I mentioned previously. We also anticipate a negative segment mix impact to impact operating margins, as construction industry sales would be a lower proportion of total sales as compared to the third quarter. Price realisation should remain positive, though we expect the magnitude of the favourability versus the prior year to moderate as we continue to let more favourable pricing trends from last year. Therefore, the increases in margins that have occurred from price outpacing manufacturing cost inflation should moderate in the fourth quarter. In addition, as you look down the income statement for the prior year, there are a couple of points to note. First, short-term incentive expense in the fourth quarter of 2022 was lower than normal due to the true-up for the final outcomes for the financial year. This will be a headwind for year-over-year operating margins. However, this will be partially offset by favorability in other operating income and expense, as we do not expect the significant currency translation losses that we saw in the fourth quarter of last year to recur. By segment in construction industries, we expect slightly lower margin compared to the third quarter, assuming lower volume. We also anticipate lower sequential margins in resource industries, as is typical, impacted by cost absorption along with higher spend relating to strategic investments. In energy and transportation, we expect margins will be similar to the third quarter, with stronger volume offset by manufacturing costs and an unfavorable mix of products, which includes international locomotive deliveries in rail. Now turning to slide 17, let me summarize. Adjusted profit per share is $15.98 through the first three quarters of the year, which already exceeds our previous full year record by 15%. We generated strong adjusted operating profit margin with a 430 basis point of increase to 20.8%. We now expect to be slightly above the targeted range for adjusted operating profit margin for the full year based on our expected sales levels. MENT free cash flow remained robust with $6.8 billion year to date. We now expect MENT free cash flow to exceed our $4 to $8 billion target range for the full year. We continue to execute a strategy for long-term profitable growth. And with that, we'll take your questions.