5/1/2019

speaker
Moderator
Conference Call Operator

Good day and welcome to the Chubb Limited First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded, and if you would like to ask a question on today's call, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Karen Beyer
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Chubb's March 31, 2019 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance and growth opportunities, pricing and business mix, and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risk and uncertainty, and actual results may differ materially. See our recent SEC filings, earnings release, and financial supplement, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters. We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which, to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details, are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement. And now, it's my pleasure to introduce our speakers this morning. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Phil Bancroft, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll then take your questions. Also with us today to assist with your questions are several members of our management team. And now I'll turn the call over to Evan.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning. We had a very good first quarter highlighted by good underwriting results, strong premium revenue growth globally, and the best pricing environment in the U.S. and London wholesale market in maybe five years. Core operating income of 254 per share was up 8.5% from prior year. Book intangible book value per share were up 4.3 and about 7% respectively in the quarter. We reported a PNC combined ratio of 89.2, which included 3.8 points of CAT losses and favorable prior period reserve development of 3.1 points, 204 million pre-tax. On a current accident year basis, excluding CATS, the PNC combined ratio is 88.5, simply world class. Phil will have more to say about investment income, book value, CATS, prior period reserve development. PNC premium revenue growth in the quarter in constant dollars was quite strong, and frankly, better than we anticipated in our plans for the quarter. Net premiums grew just over 5%, while foreign exchange, given the strength of the dollar, then had a negative impact of 2.2 percentage points. During the quarter and through April, the pricing environment continued to improve, with overall price change in North America on a written basis equal to loss cost trend. In addition to property, pricing improved throughout the quarter, in many casualty-related areas, including general casualty, both primary and excess, and D&O and professional lines. Renewal price change, which includes both rate and exposure, was up over 5%. Retention of our customers remained strong across all of our North America commercial and personal P&C businesses, with renewal retention as measured by premium of over 94%. In major accounts and specialty commercial, excluding agriculture, premiums were up 4%. Renewal price change for major accounts was 4.8%, with risk management pricing up 5%, excess casualty up 7%, and property up nearly 9%. Public D&O rates increased 5.5%. In our Westchester E&S business, Renewal pricing was up 8%. Turning to our middle market and small commercial business in North America, premiums overall were up about 6.5%, our strongest quarter in terms of growth since the merger. New business was up 13%, and renewal retention in our middle market business was over 91%. Middle market pricing was up 3%, and excluding workers' comp, It was up 4.2. Again, that's the best we've seen in a number of years. For middle market pricing, for primary casualty, pricing was up about 7%. Excess umbrella was up 4.3, and D&O was up 9%. In our U.S. small commercial business, premium revenue continued its positive growth momentum, with net premiums up over 40%. In our North America personal lines business, net premiums written in the quarter were up one. Adjusted for the expanded quota share session we discussed last quarter, net premiums were up about two and a half. Retention remained quite strong at over 96%. With homeowners, pricing was up over 8% in the quarter. Turning to overseas general insurance operations, we had reasonable growth. which we expect to accelerate as the year moves along, particularly in Asia. Net premiums written for our international retail division were up 5.7% in constant dollar. And FX then had a negative impact of 5.8 percentage points. Growth was led by Latin America, with premiums up almost 13%. While premiums in Europe were up 4.2%, and Asia was up 4%. or 8% adjusting for a one-time positive item last year. International growth in the quarter was driven by both commercial and consumer lines. Consumer lines were up 6%, personal lines were up 5%, and driven by Latin America, growth of 17.5%. And A&H was up 5%, driven by double-digit growth in both Latin America and Japan. Net premiums for our London market wholesale business were up nearly 15% in the quarter in constant dollar. As I noted last quarter, this business is growing again on the back of improved pricing after several years of shrinking. Pricing conditions in our international retail and London wholesale businesses varied by line and by country. Overall rates in our retail were up 2%. While rates in London wholesale, open market business were up over 8%. Property up over 8%, financial lines up 13%, and marine up about 6.5%. And finally, aviation up 18%. John Keogh, John Lupica, Paul Crump, and Juan Andrade can provide further color on the quarter, including current market conditions and pricing trends. Since the beginning of the year, we have completed a couple of important transactions. that represent important opportunities which will feed growth in the future. In January, we entered into a 15-year exclusive distribution agreement with Banco de Chile, the largest bank based in that country. We will distribute life and general insurance products to their customers throughout their branches, telemarketing, and digital channels. Banco de Chile has a long track record of successfully marketing insurance to its more than 2 million banking customers. In March, we received approval to increase our ownership in Watai Insurance Group, the holding company of PNC Life and Asset Management subsidiaries. Watai Group's insurance operations have more than 600 branches and 11 million customers. With our increased stake, Watai Group became the first domestic Chinese financial services holding company to convert to a foreign invested joint venture. Our increased ownership is an important milestone towards our future goal of majority ownership. In closing, we're off to a good start to the year, achieving increased growth in many of our businesses globally, and momentum continues to build. A benefit of our broadly diversified presence and capabilities We are experiencing continued and even accelerated pricing increases. With that, I'll turn the call over to Phil, and then we're going to come back and take your questions.

speaker
Phil Bancroft
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Evan. We're starting out the year in an exceptionally strong financial position. We have a very strong balance sheet to support our business activities, with total capital exceeding $65 billion. We also have $105 billion portfolio of cash and investments that's highly rated and liquid, and we generated operating cash flow of $1.3 billion in the quarter. Among the capital-related actions in the quarter, we returned $702 million to shareholders, including $335 million in dividends and $367 million in share repurchases. Through yesterday, we repurchased shares for over $435 million at an average price of $134.17 per share. Since the CHEV acquisition, we have reduced our dilution on tangible book value per share from 29% to about 2.5%. Our annualized core operating ROE was 9.2%, and our annualized core operating return on tangible equity was 15.1%. Net realized and unrealized gains for the quarter were 1.6 billion after tax. There was a gain of 1.4 billion in the investment portfolio due to a decline in interest rates, and a 50 million gain from our variable annuity portfolio, primarily from the improvement in the equity markets. We also had a gain of 150 million from FX. The current quarter investment income of $882 million was within our previously communicated range. We continue to expect our quarterly adjusted net investment income run rate to be in the range of $880 to $890 million. As a reminder, as we discussed previously, we reduced the utilization of our cash liquidity program. On a basis of utilization comparable to last year's first quarter, Our investment income would have been $902 million, $20 million higher than reported this quarter. And our interest expense would have been $165 million, also $20 million higher than reported in the quarter. Pre-tax catastrophe losses for the quarter were $250 million, 90% from weather-related events in the US, and the balance from international events, primarily in Australia. The catastrophe losses were about 20% higher than we expected, which was worth about $0.06 on our EPS. We had favorable prior period development in the quarter of $204 million pre-tax or $161 million after-tax, which included $61 million pre-tax related to the 2018 crop year loss estimates. The remaining favorable development is split approximately 60% from short tail lines and 40% long-tail, primarily from accident years 2014 and prior. Net loss reserves increased $39 million or decreased $63 million on a constant dollar basis, reflecting the impact of prior period development and catastrophe and crop insurance payments in the quarter. Underlying reserves increased about $560 million. On a reported basis, the paid-to-incurred ratio was 98% for the quarter. After adjusting for the items noted previously, the paid to incurred ratio was 86%. Our core operating effective tax rate for the quarter was 14.7%, which is in line with our expected range of 14 to 16%. I'll turn the call back over to Karen.

speaker
Karen Beyer
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you. At this point, we're happy to take your questions.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Call Operator

And once again, if you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Once again, that is star 1 to ask a question, and we will take our first question from Elise Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

speaker
Elise Greenspan
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Hi. Thank you. Good morning. My first question, just, Evan, going back to some of your pricing and lost cost commentary from your prepared remarks, In North America specifically, you said that, you know, written rate is now equal to lost trend. You know, in your annual letter that recently came out, you did say that pricing in the U.S. and some other markets is not keeping pace with lost trend. So is that something that we saw change towards the end of the quarter into April? If you could just expand on that and then give us your view for the rate versus trend that you see over the balance of this year.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

First of all, I'll answer your last part. I hardly, if I had that insight, I wouldn't be doing this job if I could read the future that way, at least. I'd probably be in Vegas. But, you know, when I wrote my shareholder letter, it was about the 18 year. And it wasn't about the first quarter of 19. And in 19... In fact, in the first quarter, in total, all lines aggregated, rate on a written basis equaled loss-cost trend, and that is a change. The rate of increase is accelerating in short-tail and long-tail lines in the United States. and in London wholesale in particular.

speaker
Elise Greenspan
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Does this feel like a market, you know, where when you think obviously you don't want to project going forward, but does this feel like we're starting to get into a market where we can think about seeing some, you know, underlying margin improvement given that you made a point of saying that things, you know, really improved as we got into April?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I didn't say they really improved. I said they continued to improve. And, you know, I don't want to prognosticate the future. Frankly, Chubb runs a world-class combined ratio. And, you know, if we can continue to achieve rate that equals lost cost trend in areas that are adequately priced, that's brilliant. If we can achieve rate in excess of lost cost trend in those areas that need rate because margin is not adequate, that too is the objective. And we'll see how it plays out and whether it continues to accelerate. I like the tone of the market. I like what I see and what I feel. It's rational and I see... what appears to be continued forward momentum.

speaker
Elise Greenspan
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Okay, thanks. And then a couple of just quick numbers of questions.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Particularly in large account and in ENS business. Middle market, I would make the same comment, but it is not at the same rate of change that I observe in large account and ENS. And that's as wholesome as I think I can be with you.

speaker
Elise Greenspan
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Okay, thanks. That's very helpful. And then a couple of quick numbers, questions for Phil. Can we get the FX impact on EPS in the quarter?

speaker
Phil Bancroft
Chief Financial Officer

Well, it was $23 million.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

We gave it on the first page of the press release.

speaker
Phil Bancroft
Chief Financial Officer

Okay, great. That's on core operating income, and it was about 18. It was 18 on underwriting.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

And the percentage points are right on the first page of the press release.

speaker
Elise Greenspan
Analyst at Wells Fargo

And then my last question, Phil, you said that net investment income and interest expense kind of had offsetting impacts of the $20 million. Is the Q1 interest expense the right way to think about using that number as a run rate?

speaker
Phil Bancroft
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I would say that I would use the netted number, right? So the... I would take $20 million out of the number that I gave for both investment income and for interest expense.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

You'd add it to investment income. You'd take it away from interest expense.

speaker
Phil Bancroft
Chief Financial Officer

Interest income will come down to the range of $80 to $890, and I'd take it out of interest expense.

speaker
Elise Greenspan
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Okay, great. That's very helpful. Thank you.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Call Operator

And our next question will come from Jay Gelb with Barclays. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jay Gelb
Analyst at Barclays

Thank you and good morning. For the Chubb team, there's been a number of fairly significant aircraft terrorism and likely ongoing cyber claims in the industry. Can you talk about how you manage those exposures and maybe your typical net risk after reinsurance protection on those type of risks?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, you're talking about a variety of classes and We don't talk about our net. I'm not sure we're going to answer much of your question. We don't talk about individual losses. And the net limits we retain per risk really vary by risk and by class of business. And that's not something we really disclose and talk much about. But it is all rolled up. All the experience related to loss events are all rolled up in that combined ratio you're looking at.

speaker
Jay Gelb
Analyst at Barclays

It would be fair to say, though, Evan, right, that reinsurance is probably a significant risk mitigation factor in those type of exposures?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Not necessarily. You don't know what risks we're on. And so, you know, you're referring right now Boeing and then certain cyber events. And those are, you know, those are just individual insureds. And we're not, and some of them we're on, and some of them we have modest exposure, some we have more exposure. It varies all the time. But I have to say this. There is nothing we see in losses occurring in the industry that gives us any pause about Chubb's underwriting of any of those risks.

speaker
Jay Gelb
Analyst at Barclays

Understood.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. We're underwriters, so we do post-claim underwriting reviews. When we see losses come in, we're in the business of losses. And what we really look for is are we proud of the underwriting? Do we think the judgments and the appetite were correct and the pricing was and the terms and conditions? And there's nothing in what we've seen that gives us pause.

speaker
Jay Gelb
Analyst at Barclays

I see. Okay. The broader question I had was, clearly there's some favorable momentum in primary commercial lines. If 2019 is not a major cat year like we saw in the past two years, which I believe was the largest ever two-year period for the industry in terms of catastrophe experience, do you believe that this positive price momentum can persist if it's not a big cat year this year?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

You know, I do, because, you know, look, time will tell, but I frankly do because this is becoming casualty-driven, and remember, casualty kills insurance companies, not short-tail property. And, you know, casualty, you just, all casualty-related, so I'm using the term in a broad way, With the exception of one or two classes, rate and loss cost trends have been going in the opposite direction. And loss cost trend, depending on the class and the jurisdiction, have worsened in some cases because there's more pressure because of the things that we know. And the industry is experiencing that. And I think many are just waking up to the results that are emerging for behaviors that have occurred over a number of years. So I think this is a rational reaction, and I imagine it to continue.

speaker
Jay Gelb
Analyst at Barclays

Thank you, Evan. Does that mean that for maybe some of your weaker position competitors, that they haven't trued up what their underwriting reserve position might be if it's going to be a casualty-driven turn?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, you'll have to ask them. I'm not, you know, I really can't speculate on that because I don't know what they know and don't know.

speaker
Yaron Kinnar
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

We'll see.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. If they all want to share their books with me, I'll tell you.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Call Operator

And our next question will come from Brian Meredith with UBS.

speaker
Brian Meredith
Analyst at UBS

Yeah, thank you. Thanks. A couple questions here for you. First one, I just noticed in North America, a big increase in the amount of seeded reinsurance. Did you change reinsurance buying habits this year?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

No. No, we didn't change. So that would just be idiosyncratic to the business in the quarter.

speaker
Brian Meredith
Analyst at UBS

Okay. Just allocation and stuff like that.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Risk management or crop insurance adjustments or any of that.

speaker
Brian Meredith
Analyst at UBS

Okay, okay. Excellent. And then, Evan, my second question.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

And then you do know, though, on personal lines, we increased the quota share.

speaker
Brian Meredith
Analyst at UBS

Right, right.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

We expanded the quota share, as we told you last quarter. That has an impact on that line of business. It's not that material to the overall North America, though.

speaker
Brian Meredith
Analyst at UBS

Gotcha, gotcha. I was looking more at your North America commercial operations. It was like an 18.5% increase in seeded premium.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. No, that's just a timing quarter to quarter.

speaker
Brian Meredith
Analyst at UBS

Great, great. I'm just curious, you know, making a lot of continued investments in emerging growth areas, China, et cetera, what are the margins on that business like versus your kind of overall business? Is it better, worse? You know, how should we think about that potentially, you know, over the long-term impacting your numbers?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think when you look at the – It varies when you look at something like a Banco de Chile or or a Banamax or or You know some of the major bank Delated distribution agreements we have made those Those are at the The kind of business that produces is at the lower end of our combined ratio of by the nature of the business. It's consumer business and small commercial and accident and health, et cetera. China, and we're not consolidating China now. I hope that will occur in the medium term when we cross the majority ownership mark we're in the midst of our activity in front of us is to acquire more ownership. We're engaged in that activity, though I can't give a precise timing. The life business is a fast-growing business, and it is now turning the corner and beginning to generate positive gap Earnings, and I believe the biggest opportunity in China is life insurance.

speaker
Unknown
Chubb Executive

Okay.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Just given the macro. And, you know, we've got licenses. Huatai Life has licenses in all, in fundamentally all the provinces. And the majority of those offices of 600 are life-related. Got 43,000 agents, though for China that small, I... I can imagine a company with 250,000 years from now. The PNC business will run a combined ratio that'll produce an underwriting profit. And it will, it won't be Chubb's average combined, the average of Chubb's combined ratio. on the higher end of the spectrum likely for a while. But that too has very good potential. And I think when I think of it in the early days right now, as we, when I say early days, the next few years, I imagine that when we consolidate it'll be at least neutral to our ROE.

speaker
Brian Meredith
Analyst at UBS

Okay. And does that also go for the PICC relationship you have?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, the PICC relationship is different. That's a venture to where we're like really the international arm of the PICC for Chinese business that's overseas. And We do the underwriting and the servicing, and they do the marketing and relationship and sales side of it, and we share the business together. That's different.

speaker
Brian Meredith
Analyst at UBS

Gotcha. Thank you.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Call Operator

And our next question comes from Michael Phillips with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

speaker
Michael Phillips
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Thank you. Good morning. Good morning. I kind of want to touch base, you know, a lot of comments on the rates and how they've changed and now we're at the point where, as you say, they're equal to lost cost trends. Kind of a follow-up, I guess, to Jay Gump's question a second ago. Maybe you could spend a little more time talking, helping us understand the other side of the equation, the lost cost trends. You said they've worsened this year. It's casually driven. You know, rates and lost costs have been moving in the opposite direction. And now that's not the case. But can you talk a little bit more about what you see in the lost cause? Where are they worsened? And maybe just more to the extent that they are worse this year versus last year?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I did not say they're worse this year than last year. So please listen to what I'm saying.

speaker
Michael Phillips
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

No, no.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I did not say they worsened. So again, please, you'll read the transcript and the question. I didn't say that. I said the overall loss cost is behaving. We haven't seen a deterioration in overall loss cost trend. I was speaking about that there are specific classes and that it's a mixed bag of some behaving, some not, and when you wrap it all together, I don't see a deterioration in the overall. What I did say is rates have not kept pace with loss costs in a number of years, and that naturally, the math is pretty simple as to what that equals. It equals margin pressure, or if you don't have margin pressure, then I can guarantee you, you've got reserve pressure. And that the industry's response to that right now, I think, is rational. And I see it having legs based on all I know right now.

speaker
Michael Phillips
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Okay. Thank you for that clarification. I appreciate it. I guess a quick numbers question on the reserve side. Do you have any exposure to what, I guess, what Travers had mentioned for that Child Victims Act in New York? And if so, were there any reserve movements because of that?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

No. Mike, you want to talk about that?

speaker
Unknown
Chubb Executive

Sure. Evan, you'll recall we recorded additional IV&R in the fourth quarter in response to the difficult environment around molestation and abuse. That was not specifically related to the Child Victims Act, but it was in part a response to the trend in certain states to introduce reviver legislation. By the way, I should also remind you a large number of states don't constitutionally allow for such legislation. As to New York specifically, it's a fluid situation. It's too early to predict the outcomes of any claims since the statute doesn't even take effect until August. So, therefore, it's really premature to talk about any potential impact.

speaker
Michael Phillips
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. Thank you very much. You're welcome.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Call Operator

And our next question comes from Jay Cohen of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jay Cohen
Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Thank you. Just a quick one on the overseas general business. The development was very minimal in the quarter. I just didn't know if you had any exposure to spillover from events that occurred in 2018. No, we did not, Jay.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

We don't actually review much in the way of reserves and overseas general in the first quarter. It's a couple of regions. They're short tail business that we review in the quarter. And so you see that, you know, sometimes, you know, just bounce around a bit, but nothing. There was no, there was no development in the quarter and we had no Jebby development, by the way, which is what everyone's trying to talk about.

speaker
Jay Cohen
Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Exactly. Thanks, Evan.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

You're welcome.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Call Operator

And our next question comes from Yaron Kinnar from Goldman Sachs.

speaker
Yaron Kinnar
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Good morning, everybody. First question is around the normalized CAT load. So I think you said that CATs were about 20 million in excess of your expectations. I think that gets about a 3.5% CAT load.

speaker
Phil Bancroft
Chief Financial Officer

It was 20% more than our expectations. Oh, 20%.

speaker
Yaron Kinnar
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay, I missed that. Okay, that's helpful. And is there a reason that you stopped offering the normalized catload in the supplement?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Oh, the ROE normalized catload?

speaker
Phil Bancroft
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

We decided to put it into the commentary. There was no conscious. Yeah, there was nothing. There was no signal there that we, yeah. Okay, okay. There was nothing like we have some change of philosophy or this or that. It was an item that we had put in particularly when there was elevated cats of significance, you know, where it was a real cat event quarter. And, you know, we just didn't see it this quarter as that. That's all.

speaker
Yaron Kinnar
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Fair. And given that the quarter was roughly a benign quarter from an industry perspective, from a cat load perspective, I guess I was just a little bit surprised to see the cat load being close to 4% for the quarter. Are you still comfortable with your longer-term guidance or targets of under 4% for the year?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we are. We really are. And You know, when you think about how we do, which we've been quite transparent, and we think that the streets estimates are a pretty good proxy for what is our own work on expected cat. And the way it's done, we model, obviously, the perils that have good models. You know, hurricane and earthquake have reasonable models, and we model our exposure based on that. And then on non-modeled, you know, tornado activity and flood and the like, we look at long-term averages. We trend them. We adjust for our exposure. We adjust for reinsurance. And when you bake all that in, the streets number is pretty good. When I look at the number over our, you know, quote, unquote, expected, And expected is a quarter. In a quarter, you're just going to have volatility around that. And by the way, on any annual basis, of course you're going to have volatility. It's so hard that you're going to hit the actual expected. You're either going to be under it a little bit. You're going to be over it a little bit. I mean, that's just real world. And in any quarter, you're going to have a little volatility. You know, some of that was international-related because we had Australia, and I don't think, I'm not sure how you guys think about all that. And then the balance was just in the homeowner's line and the winter storms that occurred, and that's about it. So it didn't fuss us at all as we looked at it, and it didn't have us reimagine cat losses. on an expected basis.

speaker
Yaron Kinnar
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay, that's helpful. And then when I look at the expense ratio in overseas general and global reinsurance, it seemed to go up a little bit. Is that just business mix shift? Is there an FX impact there? Could you maybe walk us through what drove the increase?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, in overseas general, very simple. Last year, we had one-time items that benefited and they were all around pension and compensation and they were one time and that we had over accrual and that came down and you normalize for that and the expense ratio is flat.

speaker
Yaron Kinnar
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay. And in global reinsurance?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Global reinsurance is a mix of business question.

speaker
Yaron Kinnar
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay. Thank you very much.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Call Operator

And we will take our next question from Meyer Shields with KBW. Please go ahead.

speaker
Meyer Shields
KBW Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. When we're in an environment where rate increases are matching loss trends, is there an internal expectation that various underwriting efforts should translate into margin expansion because the external catalysts are neutral?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Very line-specific expectations. where lines of business are more stressed or don't meet our combined ratio standards, then there we drive for more rate, we drive for change in terms, and we reshape portfolio. And that is actively going on, Myra.

speaker
Myra
Chubb Executive

Okay, perfect. That's all I had. Thank you.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Call Operator

And our next question will come from Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

speaker
Ryan Tunis
Analyst at Autonomous Research

Please go ahead. Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just following up on the question Meyer had, I mean, there's clearly some lines we're seeing a lot of rate excess casualty. I mean, you said plus seven, the middle market, which is plus three. I mean, Evan, I guess I'm curious, is the rate and the pricing even a good indicator of, you know, on a line-by-line basis, what's happening with margins? Like, for instance... Are the lines that are getting plus seven likely to see more margin improvement than the lines that are only getting plus three, or is that really just based on relative need?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Based on relative need, you can't translate it. We can, but we're not disclosing that, and we don't go there.

speaker
Ryan Tunis
Analyst at Autonomous Research

What are some areas where you think that weight is below loss trend? What are some lines that jump out to you?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Where rate remains below loss trend? A lot of ENS casualty. You know, it varies by line of business, but rate continues in, not below loss trend. It's actually above loss trend. I shouldn't say that. Let me take that back. But it needs more rate because you look at the combined ratio starting point in those lines. I see stressed lines right now, and the better way of saying it, because I'm not going to give it to you by line, you know, in real specific detail, but I see stressed lines getting above loss cost trend, and it needs it, which helps to begin to improve the margin in that area. Now, in many of those areas, we shrank and shrank substantially because you can see it in our numbers. We've talked about it. Go back in how we talked about shrinking our Westchester business, our London ENS business, our reinsurance business as examples because of the competitive environment. In those areas, some of them have classes where we see growth opportunity right now because rate is exceeding loss cost trend and it presents opportunity. Some, rate is exceeding loss cost trend. We write a modest portfolio, but it's still not adequate enough where we want to grow that business.

speaker
Ryan Tunis
Analyst at Autonomous Research

That's helpful.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

By the way, there are some lines where rate, frankly, is still not adequate relative to lost cost trend. And they're coming up, but they're still not there yet.

speaker
Ryan Tunis
Analyst at Autonomous Research

Gotcha. And again, I know you don't want to prognosticate on pricing, but I am curious... How important is what's going on with reinsurance pricing, do you think, in terms of how much primary pricing can continue to improve? Is it such that this reinsurance and what happens there, do you think, tell most of this story? Or is it still a situation where you have enough primary companies where ROEs are inadequate and you think you could... you know, continue to have rate farming in primary while reinsurance stays, you know, sort of not so spectacular.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Right now, this is primary insurer-driven. It's not reinsurance market-driven.

speaker
Ryan Tunis
Analyst at Autonomous Research

Thank you very much.

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

You're welcome.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Call Operator

And we will take our final question from Mike Duell from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Mike Duell
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Yeah, good morning. Just a question related to the agriculture business with the various flooding and other events that we've seen so far. Is that likely to have any impact on either the premium or potentially how you might think about losses this year?

speaker
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Frankly, let's take it in two pieces. The wet season... and how people think about late plantings and all of that. The planting season right now and the pace of it is really the same as last year. And you know how last year turned out. So it's very early days, but right now planting conditions are pretty good and improving. And then on the loss side from flooding, most of that flooding occurred in floodplain areas. And from a loss point of view, therefore, when we look at our portfolio, it's really about late planting question. And as I said, we see the conditions about equal to last year.

speaker
Mike Duell
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

That's helpful. Thanks very much. That's my only question.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Call Operator

And I'd like to now turn the call back over to Ms. Karen Beyer for any additional or closing remarks.

speaker
Karen Beyer
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Have a great day.

speaker
Moderator
Conference Call Operator

And this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

Q1CB 2019

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