11/6/2025

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good day and welcome to the CF Industries Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Martin Jarosik, Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Martin Jarosik
Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations

Good morning, and thanks for joining the CF Industries Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Tony Will, President and CEO, Chris Bone, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Burt Frost, Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development, and Supply Chain, and Greg Cameron, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. CF Industries reported its results for the first nine months and third quarter of 2025 yesterday afternoon. On this call, we'll review the results, discuss our outlook, and then host a question and answer session. Statements made on this call and in the presentation on our website that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statements. More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance may be found in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our website. Also, you'll find reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in the press release and presentation posted on our website. Before we begin today's call, I want to provide an update on the incident we experienced at our Yazoo City, Mississippi complex last evening. All employees and contractors are safe and have been accounted for, and there are no significant injuries. The incident has been contained and an investigation is underway. Now let me introduce Tony Will.

speaker
Tony Will
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Martin, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday afternoon, we posted results for the first nine months of 2025 in which we generated adjusted EBITDA of $2.1 billion. These results reflect outstanding execution by the CF Industries team across all aspects of our business. And most importantly, our team continued to work safely. At the end of the quarter, our trailing 12-month average recordable incident rate was 0.37 incidents per 200,000 work hours. Five years ago, October 2020, we announced a significant shift in the company's strategic direction, including an ambitious plan to begin decarbonizing our production network, a plan to become the world's leader in clean ammonia, and a model example of environmental stewardship and how to abate an energy-intensive business in a financially responsible way. Today, that vision has been realized. I'm very excited to announce that the plans we launched five years ago have begun delivering real value to our shareholders and broader benefits to society as a whole. We have made great strides over the last five years and have reduced our GHG emissions intensity by a whopping 25% from our original baseline. And every single one of the initiatives that contributed to this remarkable achievement have been highly NPV positive, creating substantial value for shareholders. We are the best example of how being environmentally responsible can actually go hand in hand with creating significant shareholder value. On our journey, we have executed all of the following initiatives. We closed two of our least efficient, highest emissions plants that were also borderline uneconomic to continue operating. We commissioned two new, highly efficient, lower emissions plants that have return profiles exceeding 20% IRR. We acquired the Wagamon, Louisiana ammonia plant, a very efficient plant with relatively low GHG emissions intensity. and increased production at that facility significantly, from 750,000 tons annually to over 900,000 tons, resulting in an IRR of over 20%. We installed N2O abatement systems into certain nitric acid plants, the resulting carbon credits from which are being sold at high values, more than recovering our costs within just a single year. And finally, we've begun sequestering approximately 2 million metric tons per year of CO2 from our Donaldsonville complex. The 45Q tax credits from this project will more than pay our installation costs within two years, generating an IRR over 20%. And we are currently selling the resulting low-carbon ammonia at a premium. What is otherwise a commodity product chemically identical to ammonia produced anywhere else in the world, has become differentiated and now commands a premium in the marketplace. These initiatives have helped reduce our emissions intensity by roughly 25% from our baseline, while creating significant value for our shareholders. And now we are embarking on the development of the world's largest ultra-low emissions ammonia plant at our Blue Point Complex in Louisiana. We have two world-class equity partners, Jera and Mitsui, with us in this venture, and I fully expect the financial and societal benefits will be equally as impressive as the initiatives we have already completed. Additionally, we have a second carbon capture and sequestration project underway at our Yazoo City, Mississippi complex and numerous other initiatives yet to be announced. The end result is that we have a robust high return growth trajectory in front of us through the end of the decade. that will continue to dramatically reduce our GHG emissions intensity while providing exceptional financial returns. Before I turn the call over to Chris to talk more about our operating results, I do want to take a moment and highlight what I consider to be a great misconception in the market. I want to refer you all to slides numbered 10, 11, and 12 in our materials. Slides 10 and 11 show our consistently strong free cash flow generation and our relentless share repurchase program. Slide 12 shows a remarkable free cash flow conversion efficiency from EBITDA, and yet amazingly how we trade at a shockingly low valuation. Oftentimes CF Industries is compared to agricultural companies, and yet we are very different from most of those. The seed and chemical companies face challenges of products coming off patent and declining margins. or of distribution channels being stuffed full and having to go through the pain of destocking. We're also very different from capital equipment companies or those selling more discretionarily applied products like phosphate and potash, who are really and truly subject to grower profitability. However, our sole product, nitrogen, is fundamentally different. Even in periods of relatively weak grower profitability, Nitrogen demand is unaffected, almost completely inelastic. This year, when there was great hand-wringing due to subdued grower profitability, high planted corn acres, and global nitrogen supply production disruptions in other parts of the world, created a situation where nitrogen demand and resulting pricing was very, very strong. As Bert will talk about in a few minutes, we see the same strong demand dynamic shaping up for next year. Nitrogen and certainly CF industry's financial performance is not impacted by most of the factors affecting the rest of the ag sector companies. While other times we were compared to industrials or material sectors, again, we have very little in common with most of those companies either, especially the chemical companies. We do not suffer from global overcapacity, nor from sluggish or declining demand. Our free cash flow generation is consistently high, and yet as shown on page 12, we have traded an anemic average cash flow multiple of barely 7.5 times free cash flow. Realistically, that should be the low end of an EBITDA multiple, not a cash flow multiple. Oddly, businesses that are on a whole more volatile and structurally way less advantaged than CF trade at a higher valuation. The industrial sector trades at 27 times cash flow The materials sector trades at 30 times cash flow, while our consistently high cash flow generation on average has traded at a sickly 7.6 times. All of this is a long way of saying the market doesn't really understand our business or our consistently high free cash generation. As Greg will talk about shortly, we have made great progress on our share repurchases and continue to do so. We, around this table, believe CF represents an amazing value. especially when only trading at an average 7.5 times cash flow. And we will continue aggressively repurchasing shares from the non-believers and those that don't take the time to understand why we are fundamentally different from most ag, industrial, and materials companies. With that, I'll now turn it over to Chris to provide more details on our operating results.

Disclaimer

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Q3CF 2025

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