Grupo Cibest S.A.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Bancolombia Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Jenny. I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the prepared remarks, there will be a question and answer session. During the question and answer session, if you have a question, please press 1 on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. Please note that this conference call will include forward-looking statements, including statements related to our future performance, capital position, credit-related expenses, and credit losses. All forward-looking statements, whether made in this conference call, in future filings, in press releases, or verbally, address matters that involve risk and uncertainty. Consequently, these are factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements. including changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in currency exchange rates and interest rates, introduction of competing products by other companies, lack of acceptance of new products or services by our targeted clients, changes in business strategy, and various other factors that we describe in our report filed with the SEC. With us today is Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer of Mr. Mauricio Rocio, Chief Corporate Officer, Mr. Jose Humberto Acosta, Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Rodrigo Prieto, Chief Risk Officer, Mr. Jorge Humberto Hernandez, Chief Accounting Officer, Mr. Carlos Brad, Investor Relations Director, and Mr. Juan Pablo Espinosa, Chief Economist. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer of Bancolombia. Mr. Juan Carlos, you may begin.

Good morning and welcome to our conference call for the second quarter of 2020. I hope all of you and your families are safe and healthy. The second quarter of the year observed in a significant way the impact of the pandemic, not only in Colombia, but also on a global scale. We are living under a new challenging environment. which has led us to quickly adapt as a bank and as individuals to face this new reality. In Bancolombia, we are fully committed to support our clients and take care of our employees. The net income for the first half of 2020 was 263 billion pesos. mainly because of a net loss of 73 billion pesos for the second quarter. I want to start by giving you an overview of four key points. The first is about our solid liquidity position and the robust capitalization levels. We have diversified funding sources with a resilient deposit base. Since the first quarter, we have experienced a material increase in our deposits that have remained throughout this quarter. And this has allowed us to sustain high-quality liquid assets. On the capital front, our Tier 1 ratio reported for the first quarter is 9.3%. and will increase after the extraordinary shareholders meeting approval by which we reclassified 4.12 trillion pesos from vocational reserves to legal reserve in a consolidated basis. The second point is that we have increased our provisions by 76% compared to the first quarter of this year. as a reflection of weaker economic outlook related with the pandemic. This provisioning level results in a coverage ratio of 208% for the quarter. The third point is regarding our digital strategy. We have been a leading bank in Colombia supporting the government with the distribution of subsidies. We rapidly implemented an operating model that allowed us to distribute more than 442 billion pesos throughout our digital platforms, Bancolombia La Mano and Neki, successfully adding over 2 million new clients. And finally, the last point is about the macroeconomic environment. Since the gradual reopening of the economic activity in April, we have seen a slow recovery, but the uncertainty around the impact of COVID-19 and the overall performance of the economy in the second half remains significant. At this point, I want to turn the presentation to Juan Pablo Espinosa, who will further elaborate on the performance of the Colombian economy.

Thank you, Juan Carlos. Let me start by saying that following a trend seen in many countries as a result of the lockdown measures taken to contain the advance of the pandemic during the second quarter of 2020, the Colombian economy experienced the largest contraction in several decades. According to our estimates, year-on-year variation of GDP in this period was around 16%. which is close to the upper bound of our forecast range. The decision of Colombian authorities to gradually restart activities in key sectors, such as manufacturing, construction, and retail, has led to a correction in the pace of contraction. As a result, monthly figures of economic activity moved from 20.5% in April to 16.6% in May and 11.3% in June. Despite this mild improvement, we think that for the second half of 2020, the risks to growth are biased to the downside. In fact, as containment measures keep limiting the operation of several industries, an uncertainty regarding the advance of COVID-19 remains activity will be affected. This perspective is incorporated in our view of GDP contracting between 6% and 9% for full year 2020. It is also important to mention that the negative effects of the pandemic have also translated to the labor market, as unemployment rate has soared to the highest levels since the recession of 1999. We foresee that in the short term, urban unemployment rate will continue to increase, albeit at a slower pace than that seen in April and May. Regarding prices, during the past few months, consumer inflation has moderated markedly thanks to several actions taken by the government aimed at reducing the burden of utility payments to households, as well as a better performance of food prices and low pass-through of depreciation. Going forward, we anticipate that inflation will further correct due to lower pressures on the main components of the CPI. Hence, year-on-year variation will likely close the year below the floor of the central bank target range, which is 2%. In terms of monetary policy, Colombian Central Bank has reacted proactively to the challenges arising from the pandemic and the reduction in oil prices. In addition to the increase in liquidity provision and asset purchases, it has cut its benchmark rate to 2.25%, the minimum level since the introduction of the inflation targeting regime. Due to the risk to growth, employment and deceleration of prices for other costs are likely. However, future decisions will be contingent on new data, and we think that Banrep will continue to act cautiously. Finally, it is worth mentioning that over the past few months, conditions in global financial markets have improved. As a consequence, oil prices have recovered faster than initially expected. and the Colombian peso has gained ground beyond our previous expectations. Moreover, given that we expect an additional inflow of dollars due to foreign debt disbursements, the local currency can sustain its recent gains. I want to turn the presentation back to Juan Carlos.

Thank you, Juan Pablo. I want to continue this presentation by sharing with you what has been Bancolombia's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Regarding our employees we have focused on three main tasks. First, deploying resources to assist our employees in terms of mental and physical health. Second, establishing remote work schemes to the majority of our workforce for safeguarding purposes. And third, adopting the opening model so that we can run the business without significant disruptions, designing specific return plans to the corporate buildings under strict protocols supported on analytics to optimize schedules and the use of workplaces. As of today, 58% of the group of employees are working from home. On the other hand, PAN Colombia has adopted the support of communities as a priority during the pandemic. We have assisted the government in delivering subsidies under its different support programs, benefiting more than 850 7,000 people and more than 55,000 businesses. Over 1.7 million employees benefited from the subsidies distributed by the bank. Now turning to slide five, I want to walk you through the details of the impacts of the relief program in our loan book. We have taken several actions. to help our customers over the last months in different fronts. First, we granted a three-month grace period to the personal loans and up to six months grace period to the mortgages loans. Whereas for SMEs and corporate loans, we granted these on a case-by-case basis based on the situation of each client. As you may see in the slide, in average, the total relief program has represented around 50% of the total loan book, except in Banco Agro Mercantil in Guatemala, in which it represents 31%. In the case of Bancolombia, 50% of the total relief is related to retail, 20% to SMEs, and 30% for corporate loans. Moving to slide six, we can see One positive aspect of the current situation in which is the growth in the adoption of digital banking. The number of clients and transactions has increased substantially over the year. Neki and Bancolombia La Mano have almost doubled since 2019 and are now reaching an aggregate of 6.6 million users. NECI has grown over 300% in the transactions over the last year, and Bancolombia La Mano has increased almost by three times the number of remittances during the second quarter of 2020, as compared to the same period of 2019. This trend accelerated during the second quarter, as NECI showed a 45% growth in the number of users and 60% in the number of transactions, while Bancolombia Alamano grew 55% in the number of users and distributed over 1 million payrolls as of June with an annual growth of 20%. We expect these trends to continue during the second half of 2020, although not all at the same pace. On slide seven, We present the current status of our distribution channels in Colombia. The key point I want to emphasize is the rapid adoption of digital channels. During the second quarter, total transactions conducted through digital channels represented 87%. In this quarter, transactions performed through digital channels have grown 60% when compared to the second quarter of last year. I wanted to highlight two important facts. First, 70% of our client uses at least one of our digital channels. And second, the significant growth in digital sales. This year it represents close to 43% of the total number of products sold. This is more than double the figure of 2019. Now, I want to turn the presentation to Jose Acosta. Jose?

Thank you, Juan Carlos. On slide eight, we present the breakdown of provisions during the quarter. As we did the previous quarter, we want to explain the provisions breakdown. First, the provisions associated to the update of macro scenarios with a more negative forward-looking outlook and COVID-19 which represented 49% of the total provision expenses during the quarter. We want to highlight that the expectations for micro-variables changed significantly from the first quarter to the second quarter of this year across the board. As an example, expectations of GDP in the case of Colombia is minus 6% coming from minus 0.8% of the first quarter of this year. Second, regarding provision charges associated to consumer loans, we must mention that those correspond to a normal pace of deterioration explained by the 17% nominal growth of the consumer loan portfolio between June of this year and June of last year. This growth occurred mainly in personal loans. Finally, we did specific provisions for corporate clients in Colombia that also impacted the numbers. Moving to slide number nine, we give you a snapshot of what we are doing with our clients in terms of risk categorization. Because of the relief programs, we have been working the risk assessment front using internal data and developing expert models to determine the level of risk of the loan portfolio so that we can estimate NPL formation and the provisioning level of each group of risk. Assume for the retail segment that represents 34% of the total loan book, we identify that 68% is in low risk, which means that those clients will be able to pay their obligations on time in the coming months. The 19% is in medium risk, which means those clients will need some type of solution to pay their obligations. And the 13% is in high risk, which means Those clients are highly affected and might need a restructuration of their conditions in the coming months. SMEs represent 13% of the total loan book and corporates represent 52%. As the SME segment has been the most impacted by COVID-19 and the economy lockdown measures, the portion with high risk is at 37% level. It is worth mentioning that during the first wave of reliefs in the corporate book, we developed a contingency of internal bundle of short-term solutions for each client depending on the type of support they needed. For the second wave of relief solutions of medium and long-term will be granted according to the individual client condition. Regarding SMEs and individuals, in the first wave of reliefs, SMEs had a similar treatment of the corporate book, but individuals got an automatic program of grace periods that ended in July for personal loans and will end in September for mortgages. It is important to highlight that this automatic program of grace periods intended to help clients to comply with the national regulations regarding payment reliefs during COVID-19 lockdowns. And as a result of this, the relief program represents around 51% of the total loan portfolio in Colombia. One implication of the grace periods is that past due loans did not increase. On the other, is that to recognize the risk of the loans that received the grace periods, we used expert models that help us to keep the same levels of provisions historically observed and therefore to better estimate a provision's expenses. On the other hand, for the second wave of reliefs, which began in July and end in December of this year, we have to offer different alternatives of payment for our clients. Some of them are mandatory by regulation and others are optional. It is important to highlight that those alternatives are by demand, which means that our clients must ask for the solution and must show evidence that they really need it. Some of the options that we will offer to our clients are self-managed solutions to our digital channels to extend, for example, the tenor of the loans, specialized channels such as BPOs and audio banking to request solutions that are suitable for each client depending on their needs, and banking sales representatives for SMEs and corporates to develop the best solution to help these segments. Regarding the composition by stages during the second quarter of this year, we can see that there was an increase in stage two and stage three. The increase in stage two was explained by two aspects. First, the number of clients in watch lists increased. And second, the output of the risk assessment of our expert models resulted in higher risk, both because of COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, the increase in stage three was also due to a higher number of clients in watch list and a higher deterioration in loans that were not part of the relief programs and that overpassed the 90-day threshold. Finally, we expect to see a high deterioration of the loan portfolio in the second half of the year as the economy continues to suffer the impact of the lockdown. In this highly uncertain economic environment, estimated MPL formation is quite challenging, which makes it difficult to have an estimation of the provision charges and portfolio quality metrics for 2020. In slide 10, we present provision charges and allowances. Cost of risk for the quarter was 4.8% and 3% for the last 12 months. Cost of risk without COVID-19 effect was 2.4% for the quarter and 2.2% for the last 12 months. As a result of our provisioning models, the level of allowances has increased as a proportion of the total loan portfolio. The next slide shows the partial loan formation and coverages. New past due loans during the quarter decreased mainly due to the relief programs that began in March 2020. Also, we maintained the pace of charge-offs loans during the quarter, restructured some clients, and there is some recovery of loans. Therefore, the behavior of the MPLs is negative, which means that they are being reduced. The coverage ratio rose to 208%, mainly explained by the provisions based in expert models that help us estimate the possible deterioration of the loan book and therefore the provisions necessary to cover those NPLs. Also, bear in mind that our risk provisioning models are based on expected losses under IFRS 9. On slide 12, we present the liquidity position of the bank. The second quarter has shown a sustained trend in high liquidity levels in the consolidated figures and in the four geographies balance sheet in which the bank operates. It is worth mentioning that we have an optimal funding structure with an important level of stable retail deposits, thanks to a strong customer base. The flight to quality effect seen in the first quarter continues to be reflected in the liability side and has contributed to the high liquidity levels. This has allowed us to withstand the grace periods we have granted to our clients. During the first semester of this year, the balance on checking and savings accounts have increased by 19% and represent 49% of the total funding. Such growth has been consistent in all four geographies. The outcome of a mix with a lower share from time deposits has permitted to improve the cost of deposits quarter by quarter. I want to highlight that the last week of July, we successfully executed the second international senior bond issuance for Banismo for $400 million. The use of proceeds of the transaction is to establish a stable and diversified funding base. These liquidity levels should be maintained for this year due to the low demand in the loan portfolio and low dynamics in withdrawals from saving and checking accounts. On slide 13, we present the current capital situation of Bancolombia and subsidiaries. Total submissive ratio stands at a level of 12.6% while TET1 totaled 9.3% for the second quarter, well above the minimum regulatory requirements, which signals a solid position to face the upcoming challenges. The bank has been in recent years accumulating capital thanks to its earnings retention policy. According to the test performed under stress conditions in terms of credit quality and considering the current environment and our portfolio growth outlook, the capital ratios are comfortable to comply with the regulatory thresholds. Last week, as Juan mentioned, it was approved by extraordinary shareholders meeting the reclassification of existing resource in the occasional reserve to the bank's legal reserve. Under the current economic regulation, The only reserve of the shareholders' equity considered as a basic solvency is the legal reserve. Similar measures were taken in Banismo and Bancolombia for a total value of 4.12 trillion Colombian pesos. This action aims to increase the bank's solvency levels while the shareholders' equity will not suffer any particular change. As a result, this accounting movement will increase the regulatory capital position And under a performant exercise with June numbers, we estimate a core equity tier one ratio of 11.2% in a consolidated basis, which leaves the bank in the high range of our solvency target. This is a remarkable fact because under the current circumstances, having a strong capital position is a fundamental pillar to face the near future. The adoption of Basel III is scheduled to start its implementation in 2021. Our performance analysis suggests that we will increase our capital levels again. On slide 14, we present a snapshot of our standalone operations. Through the different geographies operated by Banco Colombia Group, it is important to highlight the solid position of the standalone banks in terms of capital and liquidity. as one of the priorities to operate with reliability in the current uncertain environment. In the same way, coverage ratios have been one of the key indicators in Colombia and the Central American series, sustaining a level of 208% in a consolidated basis. Amid the many challenges ahead, we would like to point out the positive evolution in terms of efficiency to bring down to cost-to-income ratios consistently in the four operations as coordinated effort to contribute gradually to profitability ratios. On slide 15, we see the evolution of margins at the net interest income. Lending margins were under pressure during the quarter, mainly explained by two reasons. First, The increase is based on clients under IFRS 9 that generates fewer interest income. And second, during this year in Colombia, the reduction undertaken by the central bank has reached already 200 basis points, and it's expected that the cut rates will further continue through the year. On the other hand, it is important to note that the decrease in cost of funds has added resilience and partially offset the compression of to our lending margins, which ended at the quarter at a level of 5.1%. Core deposits continue with the positive evolution shown in the beginning of the year during this quarter. However, we are expecting a meme at around 5% at the end of the year. Finally, a steady balance in the loan portfolio and the sustained accrual of interest of clients on the relief programs during the recent months explain the stability in NII for the second quarter of this year. Slide 16 shows the evolution of expenses and efficiency. Our focus on cost efficiency has delivered positive results. During the second quarter of 2020, the bank has managed to decrease the total operating expenses by 15% when compared to the first quarter of this year, and by 8% when compared to the second quarter of last year. In general, the first semester presents a positive performance driven mainly by lower personal expenses and partially offset by higher administration and general expenses. During the first six months of this year, personal expenses grew 0.8% on a yearly basis, but excluding the FX impact, we will have experienced a negative variations of 2.5%. For 2020, we're expecting to increase our operating expenses between 2% and 4%. Regarding income tax, the decrease during the quarter was mainly explained by the Colombian operation. One of the main aspects that explain the decrease are higher level of provisions related with loans that generate deferred taxes. Now, I want to turn the presentation to Juan Carlos for the closing remarks. Juan.

Thank you, José Humberto. As a summary, I would like to highlight three main elements of the second quarter results. The balance sheet structure remains solid. The loan portfolio will not grow as expected. It could be around minus 2% for the end of the year. The funding composition shows high liquidity levels Diversification and cost reduction and solvency levels are more than enough to face this economic cycle. The digital development of the bank has allowed us to connect the government support and the most vulnerable population. To provide banking services to our clients without leaving their homes. and to expand the client base through NECI and Pancolombia a la mano. This year definitely has high levels of uncertainty. We think that the fourth quarter of the year will reflect more accurately the behavior of our clients in terms of their payment capacity, and therefore we could know what will happen in terms of risk. After elaborating on these key topics, I want to open the line for questions.

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. We do ask that you limit yourself to one question per person. If you have a question, please press star then 1 on your touch-tone phone. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press the pound sign or the hash key. If you're using a speakerphone, you may need to pick up the handset first before pressing the number. Once again, if you have a question, please press star then 1 on your touch-tone phone. And our first question comes from Andres Soto from Santander.

Good morning, Juan Carlos Osumberto. Thank you for the presentation. I would like to zoom in in the process of provisioning in this quarter. I understand half of the provisions are related to a general COVID-19 update. I would like to understand how do you break that down between a general model, let's say a general model update versus the exercise that you presented in slide nine where you classified the risk level for every of your segments. And to that point, I would like to understand a little bit better. I was kind of surprised that you considered that only 13% of your written portfolio as high risk. I would like to understand what assumption is behind that. Why are you confident in this number? Or we may see this number deteriorate once this loan rescheduling plan phases out and you start asking your customers to pay back. Thank you.

Thank you, Andres, for your question. Let me take the second one. and I will pass it on to Rosenberg. We started doing a very deep analysis of the behavior of our clients since April. So we are running models in order to assess how they are in economic development. And we are confident that that assessment is giving us enough information to classify the clients in three different categories that we mentioned. So the numbers that we are showing are based on data analysis, as I mentioned, deep analysis, and we are confident. It is possible that the situation of the customers during the second half of the year change. So we will continue assessing that situation. So with the information that we have today, that is a very good estimate of the situation of our customers. But that situation could develop in the future. Okay, could you take the first, Andres, question?

Okay, thank you, Juan Carlos. Andres, good morning. Yes, half of the provisions, as you mentioned, is because of the parameters update and COVID. And basically what we did is to create an expert model based on historical data of the customers that they received the grace period and also including the different sectors in which they operate more and an additional capacity of payment. Based on that assumption, I would say that out of the 50% of that provisions, 70% is because of the expert models and 30% it is because of the updating of the different parameters that we use under expected losses model. Just to, as we mentioned on the script, we have to change, for example, the GDP growth that was minus 0.8% on March and that would be minus 6% on June. So the proportion is 70% because of the expert models that we have to create for those clients, an environment assuming the risk profile, and the 30% for the updated models. The other 50% that you're seeing is because business as usual. Mostly of them is because of consumer deterioration. The other ones are SMEs and corporate deterioration.

And our next question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America.

Hi. Good morning, Juan Carlos, Juan Pablo Carlos, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for your presentation. The first question is on the political side. We have seen the former President Alvaro Uribe was placed under house arrest. So given that he's well-known in Colombia and an important member of the right center and the one that choose President Duque, In your opinion, do you think this political noise can give some empowerment to Petro, and when do you have presidential elections? Then my second question is a follow-up in the MPLs and the provision charges. I believe the low MPLs were explained by the relative programs, and they represented roughly $60 trillion of Colombian pesos, or 30% of your consolidated loan book. And I believe you have created 1.2 trillion Colombian pesos from your respective losses models due to these COVID-19 impacts. However, I believe there is a second round of relief programs taking place. So I would like to know how much of your portfolio is in the second phase, and when should we think NPL is showing up? Will it be the first one by year end and the second phase at the beginning of next year? And how should we think about the level of provisions that you have created in the second quarter and the cost of risk of this quarter? Should we think it will maintain the same levels during the next quarters and you will wait depending on the evolution after the relief programs? Any color on this will be appreciated. Thank you.

Thank you, Ernesto, for your question. Let me take the first question, and I will give a comment on the second one, and, of course, Humberto will give you more color on that second one. Regarding the situation around Alba Uribe, Colombia has very strong institutions, and it's a vision of respecting those institutions. So I'm confident that this situation is going to be solved on those issues and that it's not going to have an effect on the economic front. Regarding elections, presidential elections in Colombia will be in 2022, so the president Duquesne government is in the half of their term. So still there are two more years of Duquesne presidency. Regarding your second question, as you mentioned, we have the first four months of the pandemic started. We did some relief to our customers. Now we are starting the Facebook. Because of those, the NPLs are lower than those we had at the beginning of the year. So we expect that those NPLs are going to secure it. Definitely what we are thinking now is that we are going to work, plan by plan, assessing the risk level and working with them with a solution or position that they need according to their particular situation. So NPS will secure it definitely. Cost of risk, it's difficult to know at this point how the cost of risk is going to be at the end of the year and at the beginning of next year. We were making, at the beginning of the year, cost of risk around 1.7, 1.8. The quarter was more than 4%. The cost of risk is going to remain high, definitely. How high, it depends on how the lockdowns evolve, how the economic situation evolves, and how those workouts with the customers go. With this, I will pass the question to Jose Humberto for more details. Okay, I think Jose Humberto is not on the line. Let me wait for him to reconnect. On that, what I'm saying, we are estimating that and since we are doing an accounting based on expected losses, the remaining of the year will have a high cost of risk. Other than that, I don't think that next year, or I think that next year, will start improving. The cost of rates for the peak is going to be this year, and then it will improve next year.

Thank you. And our next question comes from Tito Labata from Goldman Sachs.

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. I'm going to shift it to expenses. We did see some good cost control there, you know, down like 8% year-over-year on operating expenses. And you mentioned, I think, 2% to 4% growth is what you expect for the year. But just to think about, you know, where else can you control costs? Is the shift to digital helping? Like how much can that help? You know, how should we think about your branch network? And maybe just give some more color on the cost control and what are the efforts going there to keep? costs under control and maybe reduce expenses if you can. Thank you.

Thank you, Tito. Thank you for your question. Expenses is a focus of our job now. We are working very hard on how to control or be very productive as we're only fishing uh front you we were working on the physical side we are optimizing our our building uh usage the office space we will optimize and that's going to sell something that's going to last with new ways of working and so there is a sort of optimization then on the uh on the label cost We keep optimizing the cost. So we are optimistic that we can do a good job and control expenses during the year, and efficiency is going to improve. Let me pass this question to José Humberto, and also, José, if you If you want to add something to the answer I gave to Ernesto, please go ahead.

Okay. Thank you, Juan Carlos. Yes, regarding expenses, there is one-off reduction of expenses in the second quarter, as Juan mentioned. We reduced the bonus plan because of the performance of the bank at the end of the year will be different as we forecast at the beginning of the year. That explains the main reason. And you have to take into consideration also the effects If you remove the FX factor during this year, the cost expenses increase minus 2.5%. I would say that we have an instructor of cost around 85% is fixed cost. So it is very complex to reduce. So our number at the end of the year, that would be in between 2% to 4%. But as Juan mentioned, we are asking ourselves, in medium term, what would be the new way and the new structure of branches, the new way or new structure of digital channels, and maybe we will re-structure the structure of cost of the bank. So, again, the guidance would be 2% to 4%, basically because our fixed cost is important in terms of weight. Regarding the questions of Ernesto, Ernesto, yes. I just want to clarify that we have 70 billion pesos on relief on the first wave. That was 51% of the total loan and 90 billion in a consolidated base that would be 44% of the loan book. For the second wave, based on the data that we create trying to understand the cash flow of their clients, we are suggesting, we believe that the second wave, 60% of the clients, they will pay business as usual because they have enough level of liquidity. At around 20 to 25% of the clients, they will need another round or the reliefs or more extension to the obligations or reduce the interest rates. And a small portion, which will be at around 10 to 15%, we know that they will probably need more time of restructuring just to give an idea, for example, in terms of mortgage to give them 30 years of tenure. So this is the red flag, the 15% of the loans that we probably believe that they don't have the capacity to pay their obligations.

And let me ask, regarding the people's question, we are seeing room for branch organizations. It's something that we will do on a mid-term The increasing digital transaction is showing us that we can move a lot of activities from the branches to digital. So definitely we see room for improvement on the branch network. So you will see there a room for improving our expenses.

Thank you. And our next question comes from Gabriel Nobrega from Citigroup.

Hi, everyone. Good morning, and thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. My first question is with relation to trust equality. Are you seeing any specific sector that is being more affected than you expected from the pandemic? And if you could also elaborate, How is your exposure to this sector and how you are managing risk? And then my other question is actually a follow-up on this question from expenses. During the quarter, we did in fact see a rationalization in your other administrative expenses, but at the same time, we saw you adding one million clients in Ameke and one million clients in Bunkalambia. So my question here is, do you believe that you would have to continue on increasing your IT investments? Or are you already being able to collect fruits from your digital banking initiative, especially that we have almost more than six million clients in both of these platforms? And also, as I believe, during COVID, people are using more and more even channels. Thank you. Thank you Gabriel.

I have some difficulties hearing you, so I'm going to try to answer what I touch of your questions. Regarding the digital channels, we don't Now we are benefiting from the investments we have done. We have been investing in digital since, I don't know, three or four years ago. We were creating basically two platforms, Bancolombia Hamano and Nessie. And now we are benefiting from those platforms. The numbers are impressive. As we mentioned, the growth new customers.

Hello?

We lost our speaker. If someone else can take over the question, please.

Okay, yes. Yes, as Juan mentioned, we were allocated around $100 to $150 million on an annual basis for a digital project. So, No matter if we are trying to reduce the expenses, the allocation of expenses in terms of investing of IT, it is key for us. And you know that one of the pillars during this second quarter is the growth in the customers of digital banking. So we are not planning to change the other way around. We want to invest more to get more potential in order to operate because the level of transactionality is growing. And regarding your first question regarding sectors, you know that we have a well-diversified loan structure in terms of sector. Our huge exposure today could be commerce. We have at around 15%. We have consumer services at 35%. So we have a well-diversified. Obviously, we have concerns about construction, for example, in which we have 11%. Just to give you an idea, in terms of airlines, we don't have exposure. In terms of Copetrol, we have a small portion of bioenergy that is also almost 82%, 83% fully provisioning. So, again, concerns regarding all the microeconomics outlook, but in particular, we don't have any specific sector in which we believe that we have a huge impact.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sebastian Gallego from Credit Corp Capital.

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thank you for the presentation. I have three questions. The first one, if you could provide a bit more color on the specific cases you have provisioned during the second quarter and the evolution of those. Second question, if you could comment on the trends that you have been observing in in the Central American operation in terms of potential provisions and the need for extraordinary provisions in Central America going forward. And the last question, probably, if you could comment on a potential or the potential worst-case scenario that you're considering today in terms of provisions and the impact that that will have on the bank's capital position. Thank you so much.

Okay, thank you, Sebastian. Regarding special cases, as you mentioned, there is one specific special case, which is your energy, in which we have an exposure of around $120 to $130 million. We have right now fully provisioning. We have an 84% provisioning, but it is more than enough. Regarding your second question, the trend that we observe in the other geographies is the same trend that we are having in Colombia. In terms of provisioning, the impact will be also in Banismo because of the economy is fully impacted because of COVID-19. In El Salvador, I would say it's on average the same that is happening in Colombia. And the lowest level that we are seeing is in Ban in Guatemala. And the main reason, there are two reasons why. It is because of the country. It is an agricultural industry there. So the economy is not as impacted as the rest of the countries. And the second, the level of remittances still maintain certain level of liquidity in the client. So just to give you an example, in terms of reliefs, the only country in which we have 31% of the total loan portfolio under grace periods, it's in Guatemala, which is very good. So this is in terms of geography, same trend as Colombia. In terms of potential worst-case scenario, that's one of the reasons why we decided to to have a general assembly in order to increase the solvency ratio in order to move some accounts from the occasional reserves to legal reserves. In our calculations, assuming the worst case scenario could be three times more of the provisions that we had last year, we will have more than double the minimum level of G1 ratio at the end of December. So we don't have, again, a specific concern assuming And you have to take in consideration that in July, we will have a T1 ratio of around 11.2%. And our next question comes from... I don't know, Juan Carlos. I'm sorry. Juan Carlos, if you want to add something to the question of Sebastian.

Thank you, Jose. Sebastian, good morning. No, no, just to emphasize that the trends in Central America are similar, as Jose Humberto said, that the ones are in Colombia. And we are going in the same path. We are working with our customers. We are assessing their economic situation and providing solutions for that situation. So I don't have any more to add, Jose.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Jason Mullen from Scotiabank.

Yes. Hi, everyone. My question is related to the asset quality of the portfolio as well, specifically to the chart that you talk about, the customer subdivision by risk level, and you're showing 13% of the retail at high risk, 37% at the SME, and 16% at corporates. Can you talk about what that means, high risk? Do they have collateral? And maybe you could talk about the collateral and guarantees you have by segment. The mortgage book, I believe is around 13% of total. And I think there were a higher percentage of deferrals there. And if you can tell us what you're seeing there, are any of the clients that, you know, are clients making payments even though there was the ability to defer? And how, the second part of my question, I found it pretty interesting, the comment that in the second wave of, let's call it deferrals, 60% is your estimate that will likely pay as usual. What are you using to determine that? Is that their cash flows, their bill payments? If you can provide some information, that would be helpful. Thank you.

Thank you, Jason. Yes. Let me give you a general information and then Jose Humberto could give you more details. What we are doing is, and it's related with your first question and the last part of your question, we are assessing the situation of our customers based on how they are moving their money, what money is flowing, through their accounts, how we see the sectors. So with all of that, we are assessing the situation of the customers. And the numbers are showing what we mentioned, how the higher risk we are seeing on SMEs in which we see that a higher number of companies are on high risk. And then, yes, we are seeing payments and people is paying. And we see even we are estimating how the customers are going to behave. And the behavior, the actual behavior is better than the one we estimate. So we keep assessing the situation of our clients, we keep adding more information to see what is the situation of the customers. With this, I will pass your question to José Humberto for more details.

Thank you, Juan Carlos. I think it's a very clear answer, and I want to summarize your second question. The 60% is because the data that we collect, we know that they have capacity of payment because they have on checking and savings accounts liquidity or maybe time deposits. And we compare with the level of debt. That's the reason why we believe that these 6%, they have capacity of payment. And regarding your first question, as Juan mentioned, it's a different, it's in three phases. First, because of the historical behavior, we analyze what happened in the previous months with every single client. Second, because of the sector that they belong, no matter if you are a very good behavior, you work in a hotel, for example, we know that because of the sector, we will need to put in risk. And third, again, because of the cash flow.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Yudi Fernandez from J.P. Morgans.

Thank you, gentlemen. Good morning. I will have just one question regarding NII.

I guess it's no secret that Colombian banks are asset-sensitive and you should suffer because of lower rates, but my question is regarding the Stage 3 loans. We had all those questions on the risk loans, on the 50% of our loans being in forbearance. So when you look to the stage three, the non-accrual book, it has not increased that much. It's about 7.6% of your total loans. And my concern here is that stage three loans, they may increase a lot and maybe a perfect storm, right? Because you have the asset sensitive, your loan book are not growing, as you said, you expect the loans volumes to decelerate in the second half. So my question, and I think maybe this is more a 2021 topic, what do you expect for NII? What do you expect for margins? Because we may have an outlook that provisions may be higher in 2020, as you said, and maybe provisions decrease in 2021, but maybe NII will be much weaker going ahead. So what's your thoughts on Stage 3 loans, how you are thinking NII? That would be nice. Thank you. Thank you, Juri. Yes, you are right. I mean, we will see that the margins are going to decrease. Interest rates are going to be low, lower than the ones that we have now. We are working on the cost of funds, and we have some room there, but we are foreseeing some margin compressions. That's a That's clear. Regarding your question about how we are seeing the behavior of the portfolio regarding Stage 3 loans, we are seeing that the Stage 3 is around 7% of our loan portfolio. It will increase, but we are incorporating all of that on our provisions. So we will have some pressure from margins and we'll increase provisions regarding stage three, but we are taking into consideration both aspects in our projections and we are incorporating those issues now. I don't know if you have something to add to Yuri's question. No, Juan, that is very clear.

And our next question comes from Tiago Batista from UBS.

Yeah, thanks, guys. I have two small follow-ups. One, on the expensive side, you mentioned 2% to 4%. of expenses this year. This is increasing or a decline of 2% to 4%. This is the first one. The second follow-up, if you can release with us the size of the credit relief program, specifically on mortgage. Probably this is a big part, but if you can share with us the size of the mortgage in the relief program.

Thank you, Tiago. Good morning. Related expenses, we are seeing... When we mentioned 2% to 4% is an increase, but we are working very hard to do better than that. And I think we can achieve that. This year, as we mentioned, we are... the variable part of the salaries is not going to be there. So that could account for something like 20 or maybe more of the total labor expenses. And the other measures that we are taking related to the office space, we are not... growing as you could imagine in the headcount. So with those measures, I am optimistic that we can do better than that. Let me pass your second question to Jose Humberto.

Okay. Regarding your second question, Thiago, the mortgage composition in the loan portfolio is at around 11%, and at around 70% to 75% of those mortgages were on the relief program, and we offered them six months. So we will see the second round beginning of September of reliefs.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. I will now turn back the presentation to Mr. Mora, Chief Executive Officer of Bancolombia, for final remarks.

I want to thank all of you for joining us on this call. I hope the situation in the world improves soon. Please take care and stay healthy, and we hope to see you on our conference the third quarter of 2020. Thank you very much.

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.