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Grupo Cibest S.A.
2/23/2022
Please hold the line. The conference will resume shortly. Thank you. Please note that this conference call will include forward-looking statements, including statements related to our future performance, capital position, credit-related expenses, and credit losses. All forward-looking statements, whether made in this conference call, in future filings, in press releases, or verbally, address matters that involve risk and uncertainty. Consequently, there are factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements, including changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in currency exchange rates and interest rates, introduction of competing products by other companies. lack of acceptance of new products or services by our target clients, changes in business strategy, and various other factors that we describe in our report filed with the SEC. With us today is Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Mauricio Rosillo, Chief Corporate Officer, Mr. José Humberto Acosta, Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Rodrigo Prieto, Chief Risk Officer, Mr. Carlos Rad, Investor Relations Director, and Mr. Juan Pablo Espinoza, Chief Economist. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Juan Carlos, you may begin.
Good morning and welcome. Welcome to our conference call for the fourth quarter of 2021. I would like to begin this call with a brief overview of the performance of the Colombian economy. Colombia is coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic as one of the best performing economies in the region, with an annual GDP growth of 10.6%, mainly driven by the exposure to commodity prices and by the strong pace of recovery of domestic demand. The positive performance of the second half of the year setups the economy for a good 2022. We expect growth to be around 5% above the average of the region. The main risks to our view are the uncertainty surrounding the electoral cycle and inflation higher than the range of the central bank. Let me give you an overview of the results of 2021. The loan book grew 15% over the year and net fees grew 13%. Core equity tier one closed at 11.9, and the net income for 2021 was 4.1 trillion pesos. Provision charges for the year were 2.4 trillion pesos, resulting in a historical low cost of risk of 1.2%. Explained by better macroeconomic forecasts, improvements in the expected loss models, and the economic recovery in the countries where we operate. Our ecosystem strategy closed 2021 as one of the most relevant marketplaces in Colombia, with 11.5 million visits, 87 billion pesos in disbursements, and with a coverage of our QR code in 100% of the municipalities of Colombia. with 1.1 million engaged merchants. This strategy not only has great potential in terms of flows and disbursements through the digital channels, but it has also allowed us to deepen the relationship with our clients, generating more data. Before getting into the details of the results, I want to highlight two relevant topics. On December 2021, we announced the legal separation of NECI from Bancolombia. The structure approved by the Board of Directors is intended to create the necessary vehicles for NECI to have greater flexibility, seeking to capture the value of financial and non-financial businesses at a regional level. This will be implemented during 2022 and this new entity will be 100% owned by Bancolombia. Also, yesterday we announced the dividend proposal to be discussed in the annual shareholders meeting next March. This proposal comes with a structural change in the dividend policy, since we have defined an optimal level of core equity Tier 1 to support the growth we expect. We believe the bank has the capacity to generate capital on a sustained basis in the upcoming years. At this point, I want to turn the presentation to Juan Pablo Espinosa, who will further elaborate on the performance of the Colombian economy. Juan Pablo.
Thank you, Juan Carlos. Now, please go to slide number three in the presentation. During 2021, the Colombian economy surpassed expectations and grew 10.6%, one of the highest rates in Latin America. Around half of this figure is explained by the low base of 2020, when GDP contracted at a revised rate of 7%. The remaining portion represents a genuine process of recovery, which has been led by private consumptions. This component of aggregate demand has responded to several factors, including the spending of excess savings accumulated at the start of the pandemic, as well as ample access to credit and higher mobility within the country. Moreover, exports accelerated during the second half of 2021, thanks to higher commodity prices and an increase in oil and mining production. On the contrary, investment, especially machinery and equipment, fell behind the rest of demand components. Our leading indicators suggest that at the start of 2022, the pace of economic activity, despite some stabilization, has kept momentum. As we move through the year, we expect that economic activity will gradually moderate as global conditions become less supportive policy stimulus is removed, and household consumption stabilizes. Incorporating all these factors, we are currently estimating that in 2022 GDP will grow around 5%. Another significant recent development is the increase in inflation, which moved from 1.6% at the end of 2020 to 5.6% by December 2021. This trend has consolidated recently because of both external and local forces. We expect year-on-year prints to peak in the short term around 8% and then to accelerate and close the year around 6%. In this context, we anticipate that the central bank will advance further in its process of policy normalization. We have adjusted upwards not only the number of rate hikes but also determine a level of repo rate in this cycle to 6.5%. After this economic overview, let me turn the presentations back to Juan Carlos. Juan? Thank you, Juan Pablo.
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