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Grupo Cibest S.A.
8/11/2026
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Grupo Cibest Bancolombia Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Melissa, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the prepared remarks, there will be a question and answer session. During the question and answer session, if you have a question, please press star then 1 on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. Please note that this conference call will include forward-looking statements, including statements related to our future performance, capital position, credit-related expenses, and credit losses. All forward-looking statements, whether made in this conference call and future filings, in press releases, or verbally, address matters that involve risk and uncertainty, consequently, There are factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements, including changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in currency exchange rates and interest rates, introduction of competing products by other companies, lack of acceptance of new products or services by our targeted clients, changes in business strategy, and various other factors that we describe and our reports filed with the SEC. With us today is Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Mauricio Botero Wolff, Chief Strategy and Financial Officer, Mr. Rodrigo Prieto, Chief Risk Officer, and Ms. Laura Clavijo, Chief Economist. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer. Sir, please go ahead.
Good morning and welcome to Grupo Cibest's second quarter conference call. Please turn to slide two. Lower political uncertainty following Colombia's electoral process has helped reduce sovereign risk premiums. However, fiscal sustainability remains a key challenge and will require a credible adjustment path. The economy continues to expand at a moderate pace and we Estimate GDP will grow 2.7% in the second quarter, supported by resilient private consumption and sustained public spending. Despite a challenging environment, we deliver strong results. Merck income reached 2.7 trillion pesos, supported by a NIMH close to 8%, solid asset quality that kept cost of risk at 1.6% and continued efficiency gains. Together, these factors dropped a historic quarterly ROE of 28.7%. Moreover, we are pleased to see how these results reflect the success of our strategy and the consistency of our execution. First, These results highlight the strength of our competitive advantage, which is built on a value proposition rooted in transactional activity, a sustainable source of low-cost funding, and a valuable data that enhances credit risk management. Second, they demonstrate the flexibility of our commercial and financial model, which enable us to dynamically allocate resources between the loan and investment portfolios and Maximize revenue generation across economic and risk cycles. Third, they prove our commitment to operational efficiency. Ultimately, these results reflects our ability to create value throughout the successful Banismo divestment, BAM's turnaround, NECI's growing contribution, the strategic use of capital instruments to strengthen our capital structure and the extraordinary dividend proposal recently announced for shareholder approval in August. Last week, Grupo Cibest completed the acquisition of 100% of Avista Colombia, strengthening our capabilities in payroll lending and expanding access to more inclusive, tailored financing solutions for Colombians. Avista Colombia strengthens our position in a low-risk lending segment with strong growth and cross-selling potential, complementing our existing offering and expanding our ability to serve this market. By combining Avista's proven technology and business model with Bancolombia's funding advantages, we see a clear path to improve profitability and potentially scale the platform across Central America. I will now hand the call over to Laura Clavijo Our chief economist for an overview of the macroeconomic landscape. Laura.
Thank you, Juan Carlos. If you could please proceed to slide four. The Colombian economy likely expanded at a pace of around 2.7% during the first half of the year, showing early signs of a moderation in growth dynamics. Public spending and private consumption continue to support overall growth activity. However, elevated interest rates, persistent inflationary pressures, and weak private investment remain significant headwinds. Reflecting on this backdrop, we have revised downward our GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 2.9% to 2.6%. Inflation remains one of Colombia's most pressing macroeconomic challenges. At the end of the second quarter, inflation surpassed 6.1%, placing it among the highest in Latin America. Underlying price pressures remain persistent, particularly in the services sector, while the risk of a severe El Nino event poses additional upside pressures on energy and food prices, as well as on inflation expectations. As a result, the central bank raised its policy rate by 75 basis points to 12% at its June meeting. According to the bank's staff projections, inflation is expected to reach 6.9% by year end and remain above target through 2028, suggesting that further monetary tightening may be required. Accordingly, we continue to expect the policy rate to reach 12.75% by the end of 2026, Alternatively, should the board fail to secure a majority in favor of additional rate hikes, a higher for longer interest rate environment is likely to prevail throughout 2027. From an external perspective, Colombia continues to benefit from several important strengths. Favorable commodity prices, resilient exports, and record remittance inflows are supporting both external accounts and domestic demand. Meanwhile, the Colombian peso has appreciated significantly, gaining more than 15% year-to-date, driven by carry trade flows and strong market optimism. While this appreciation reflects improved investor sentiment, it may also weigh on export competitiveness. In addition, global trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions remain key risks that could affect capital flows, financing costs, and broader market sentiments. Consequently, the external environment is likely to remain a source of volatility over the coming quarters. Fiscal dynamics also remain a key source of vulnerability. We expect the central government deficit to widen to 6.5% of GDP in 2026, as strong expenditure execution, structural rigidities in public finances, and rising financing needs continue to constrain the pace of fiscal adjustment. While authorities are expected to pursue gradual consolidation over the medium term, elevated deficits and rising public debt levels underscore the importance of advancing structural reforms that strengthen fiscal sustainability and reinforce investor confidence. Looking beyond 2026, Colombia's economic outlook under Abelardo de la Estrella's administration is likely to be characterized by a combination of opportunities and structural challenges. The start of a new political cycle could help reduce uncertainty and support a gradual recovery in investment, driven by improved business confidence, infrastructure development, housing activity, and opportunities in natural resources and financial services. However, the strength and durability of the recovery will ultimately depend on the successful reduction of inflationary pressures, the normalization of interest rates, and the restoration of fiscal credibility. If you could please proceed to slide five. Central America's outlook remains broadly resilient despite more challenging external environments. In El Salvador, growth is expected to moderate to 2.9% in 2026, but economic activity should remain supported by infrastructure investment and construction, partially offsetting weaker remittance inflows and rising inflation pressure. Guatemala continues to benefit from infrastructure projects and institutional reforms that encourage private investments, supporting solid economic performance, despite softer remittance growth and higher inflation. Meanwhile, Panama is expected to grow at a pace of just under 4%, supported by canal-related activity, logistics, tourism, and construction, even as global disruptions, El Nino-related risks, and rising unemployment present ongoing challenges. Now, please let me turn the presentation to Mauricio, who will present Cibest's quarterly performance.
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