2/25/2025

speaker
Jadine
Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Civitas Resources 4th Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. My name is Jadine and I will be your operator for today's call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask questions, you may press star 1 on your touch-tone phone. And to read through your question, please press star 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call to Brad, head of investor relations. Brad, please go ahead.

speaker
Brad
Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Yesterday, we released our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results, provided our 2025 outlook, and issued supplemental slides for your review. In addition, our 10-K was filed yesterday, and all of these items are available on our website. This morning I'm joined by our CEO, Chris Doyle, and our CFO, Marianella Foskey, and other members of management. After our prepared remarks, which will come from Chris and Marianella, we will conduct a question and answer session. As always, please limit your time to one question and one follow-up so we can work through the list efficiently. We will make certain forward-looking statements today which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Please make sure and read our full disclosures regarding these statements in our most recent SEC filings. We may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial metrics. Reconciliation to the appropriate GAAP measure can be found in yesterday's earnings release and our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call to Chris.

speaker
Chris Doyle
CEO

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining today's call. I want to start with a quick recap of 2024 before focusing most of my time on 2025 and the actions we're taking to strengthen the company. By continuing to enhance our operating performance and portfolio, reducing our costs and prioritizing the balance sheet, we're creating more durable business and better positioning Civitas to generate sustainable free cash flow for years to come. Quickly on 2024, it was a transformational year for the company. Underpinned by our high quality assets and strong operational execution, our full year production was above plan and we beat original guidance for capital and operating costs. Over the past year plus, we built scaled positions in the Midland and Delaware basins, materially strengthening and diversifying our company. We brought in a proven leadership team with deep Permian roots. I'm very pleased with what the team has accomplished in just one year, highlighted by the following. Midland Basin well costs are down 15%. Daily drilling footage is up nearly 20%. Daily completion throughput is up 50%. In addition, we de-risked prospective horizons and added high-value inventory across our acreage position. And all of this has been accomplished while delivering excellent safety performance. Further, we strengthened both our Midland and Delaware positions through ground game initiatives, including more than 50 trades, swaps, and new leasing. And importantly, we did so with little to no cash. Yesterday, we announced a bolt-on transaction in the Midland Basin, adding 19,000 acres and 130 locations. With this announcement and to offset the purchase price, We set a $300 million asset sales target for 2025, which is likely to come for the DJ Basin. Effectively, this is expected to accelerate value from the DJ in support of extending our runway in the Permian. Between the ground game and Bolton, we've added nearly two years of future development in our Permian business unit and extended lateral links and working interests across our portfolio by 5%. This was done at very attractive valuations, well below recent market transactions. Today, our Permian inventory stands at 1,200 development locations. While establishing a successful track record in the Permian, we didn't lose focus, as the DJ Basin also had a strong year of performance. In 2024, we turned in line the industry's first four-mile laterals in Colorado. These were record-setters, representing the state's highest 180-day cumulative oil producers. Armed with basin-leading operational capabilities, our team added high-return development locations through a combination of ground game transactions in our core areas, including Watkins, and through continual development optimization. Overall, free cash flow for the year was about $1.3 billion, and we returned more than 70% of that to our shareholders through $5 a share in dividends and a repurchase of more than 7% of our outstanding shares. All in, we had a very successful year in 2024, and Civitas is a deeper, more durable business today. Now let's turn to 2025 and the steps we're taking to strengthen our business. Our plan focuses on delivering the following strategic priorities. Run the business to maximize free cash flow, built upon a leading cost structure and enhanced by sustainable capital efficiencies. Second, deploy that free cash flow to protect and strengthen the balance sheet. As Marianella will discuss further, we're prioritizing debt reduction in 2025. Third, return cash to shareholders. Predominantly come from a strong base dividend this year. And finally, lead an ESG and build this long-term sustainable business. as we execute on our target to further reduce our emissions. In 2025, we're level loading our capital investments compared to 2024, where the front-loaded program led to low till counts at the end of the year. While level loading impacts near-term production, this is more than offset by the long-term benefits in operating and capital efficiencies. Keeping activity levels flat in 2025 will deliver full-year oil production of 150,000 to 150,000 barrels of oil per day after level loading. and we'll invest $1.8 to $1.9 billion split relatively evenly between the Permian and DJ basins. This is approximately 5% lower than last year, reflecting the well cost savings our teams have delivered. Notably, our reinvestment rate in 2025 is consistent with 2024, despite WTI strip pricing being $5 lower year over year. As expected, our first quarter production will be low point for 2025. 80% of the sequential drop is related to natural declines in the DJ basin, following peak production in the fourth quarter. This was driven by a low till count exiting 2024 and in the first quarter of 2025, as well as severe winter weather and unplanned third-party processing downtime. We expect to grow meaningfully through the middle part of the year as new tills come online. Specific to the 2025 plan, I want to mention a few other items of note. Within our Permian program, we're increasing our allocation of capital to the Delaware Basin. Today, we have four rigs running in the Permian, two of which are in the Delaware. and a third coming shortly. Nearly all of our completions in the Permian Basin will be simulfrac, leveraging the advancements our team delivered last year, improving fluid throughput by 50% versus the start of the year. And in the DJ Basin, we have two rigs running today, and we'll continue to push the limits with longer levels. We're moving more of our production facilities to tankless operations, and our teams are operating the most efficient, lowest emission rigs and completion crews in the Basin. Our 2025 plan delivers approximately $1.1 billion of free cash flow at $70 WTI, a free cash flow yield of over 20%. Maintaining a culture of performance and cost leadership is critical to building a durable, sustainable enterprise. To further enhance our business, we're streamlining our organizational structure with a 10% reduction in workforce throughout various levels of the company. These are tough decisions. We're committed to staying low cost, driving efficiencies, and enhancing margins across all areas of the business. I'll turn it over to Marianella to discuss the steps we're taking to accelerate our balance sheet goals.

speaker
Marianella Foskey
CFO

Thanks, Chris. The long-term winners in this business will be the companies with a strong balance sheet and a cost structure at the low end of the cost curve. Yesterday, we took meaningful steps to prioritize and protect these two items, including rolling out a new free cash flow allocation strategy. Our strategy is underpinned by our 2025 net debt target of $4.5 billion, which represents an $800 million reduction to year-end 2024 performance for the full-time transaction. This debt reduction will further benefit our cost structure, decreasing associated interest expense by approximately $60 million on an annualized basis, or a 5% increase to our run rate-free cash flow. This reallocation of excess cash will allow us to reach one-tenth leverage in late 2026. Our long-term leverage target is unchanged at 0.75 times EBITDA at mid-cycle prices. While accelerating leverage reduction, we remain committed to our base dividend of $2 per share annually. As compared to our prior framework, any additional return of capital to shareholders will be opportunistic and consistent with our near and long-term balance sheet goals. I'd be remiss not to touch on our philosophy on risk management, which further protects free cash flow. We continue to execute our systematic oil hedge strategy and we are approximately 40% hedge on net oil volume for 2025. As a reminder, oil accounts for approximately 80% of our unhedged revenue. Our tactical gas hedging strategy was extremely successful in 2024, especially in the back half of the year as Permian gas price volatility increased. Our Permian volumes are currently 50% hedge for 2025 and 2026. and we will continue opportunistically adding to our gas book. Ultimately, a commodity business best hedge is a low-cost structure and a four-trade balance sheet. While our hedging philosophy has served us well, maintaining our top quartile cost structure and de-risking our balance sheet are more material value drivers in the long term. And with that, I'll turn it back over to Chris for concluding remarks.

speaker
Chris Doyle
CEO

Thanks, Farinella. Over the next three years, at the 2025 investment and production level, Civitas will generate approximately $3.3 billion in cumulative free cash flow to $70 oil. That represents two-thirds of our current market cap. It will allow us to meet our leverage reduction goals while also returning significant capital to our shareholders. Civitas' strength rests on our proven operating teams and their track record of performance in the lowest break-even oil basins in the U.S. Our 2025 plan will advance our strategy of building a long-term, durable business for our shareholders. Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

speaker
Jadine
Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. I would like to remind everyone to limit themselves from one question, one follow-up only. Should you have a question, please press star 1 on your touchtone phone, and you will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to withdraw, please press star 1 again. If you're using a speakerphone, please leave the handset before pressing any keys. Our first question comes from the line of Gabe Gawitt from TD or TD Collins. Sir, please go ahead.

speaker
Gabe Gawitt
Analyst, TD Collins

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. We're hoping, Chris, we can maybe start with the decision to shift your capital allocation strategy. You know, I thought maybe you could, for lack of a better phrase, walk into them and pay down debt and still buy back a decent amount of stock. Maybe just a bit more color there. And, you know, you mentioned opportunistic with buybacks. What does that mean? What would you need to see to step in?

speaker
Chris Doyle
CEO

Sure. Thanks for the question, Gabe. As we thought about setting this business up for 2025, we had a couple of options, a number of options. And as we thought about the backdrop, the macro that's in front of us, the volatility that we've seen over the past couple of months, we know that this is the plan. That's best to build a long-term, sustainable business for Cititas. As you mentioned, we have a business that generates significant free cash flow, $1.1 billion in 2025. Given the volatility that we see, we think the best use of that cash flow after our base dividend is really to direct it to our balance sheet. We'll have a little bit of opportunity to accelerate that. We mentioned the $300 million investment target to offset the acquisition that we announced yesterday. We're looking at other ways to potentially accelerate that delivering path and give us some more flexibility and optionality. But this is about setting the company up for long-term success.

speaker
Gabe Gawitt
Analyst, TD Collins

Got it. Thanks, Chris. That's helpful. And then as a follow-up, obviously starting One cue slowly and expected to ramp from here. Maybe a bit more color and granularity on the ramp from here in the production trajectory. And how does that potential divestiture program impact volumes? I guess another way is what's the amount of production you anticipate selling with this 300 million target? Thanks, guys.

speaker
Chris Doyle
CEO

Sure. First, with first quarter oil, largely as expected, reflecting low levels of activity, as we mentioned, in the back half of 2024 and certainly in 2025, a lot of that drop, as we mentioned, is in the DJ. We've restarted the engine. We have a pretty active 1Q plan of 50 to 60 tills, followed by another active quarter in the second quarter, and you'll see as we lay out in slide 12 growth from the first half to the second half. with that activity. In terms of the divestment, the $300 million divestment, that's TBD. We're looking at all types of assets, some assets that don't have associated production, midstream assets, some water infrastructure assets in the Permian. They're not significant, but looking at first and foremost assets that could be more valuable in others' hands. Certainly, if we see the right value, we would look to potentially accelerate some value from operating assets and producing assets. But that's certainly KBD at this point.

speaker
Gabe Gawitt
Analyst, TD Collins

Understood. Thanks, Chris.

speaker
Jadine
Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Zach Parham from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

speaker
Zach Parham
Analyst, JP Morgan

Justin Cappos- It thanks for taking my question um first with with the bolt on deal that you did in the midland, can you just talk about. Justin Cappos- Where those acquired locations fit into your development plan or those assets you'll be getting to work on later this year, or they more longer dated locations, maybe just talk about how that fits into the portfolio.

speaker
Chris Doyle
CEO

James Forrest, Norcal PTAC, Sure, as we as we dug into that opportunity, certainly, we see we see value. James Forrest, Norcal PTAC, adjacent to our operations. We did not underwrite sticks across that entire acreage position. We see that activity really starting up later this year, but more so in 2026. The Wolf Camp A, Wolf Camp B, Wolf Camp D primary development will yield good returns that will compete for capital, but that likely doesn't set up until late this year and into next.

speaker
Zach Parham
Analyst, JP Morgan

Thanks, Chris. Then my follow-up is just maybe following up on Gabe's question on capital allocation. I know the focus is now on debt reduction, but how do you think about further M&A versus potentially shifting back to a higher level of cash return? It sounds like you're going to – you talked about reaching a one-turn leverage target in late 26, so it sounds like you're going to continue paying down debt versus – returning cash, just kind of maybe how do you think about things over the longer term, M&A versus cash return versus debt reduction?

speaker
Marianella Foskey
CFO

Asak, thanks for the question. So look, first and foremost, our top priority is our net debt target, 2025 net debt target of $4.5 billion. You know, to get there, we talked about how the majority of our free cash flow after the base dividend this year is going to be allocated to debt reduction. So anything we do in excess of that, will be opportunistic. It will not be formulaic. And obviously, you know, we have a very near-term eye to that one times leverage. You know, over and above that, you've seen us balance our allocation between buybacks and acquisitions very well. You know, every acquisition we've done has been a very attractive price. It's certainly in a dollar per stick relative to some of the recent transactions announced there. And at the same time, We've also had a very successful buyback approach. We bought 7% of our shares last year. That's going to underpin an 8% operating cash flow increase 2025 or 2024. So certainly we've been very successful on both fronts, and we'll continue being opportunistic about how we balance between those two to the benefit of long-term value.

speaker
Zach Parham
Analyst, JP Morgan

Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

speaker
Marianella Foskey
CFO

Thank you.

speaker
Jadine
Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Josh Silverstein from UBS. Sir, please go ahead.

speaker
Josh Silverstein
Analyst, UBS

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys. Maybe just on the same point, you know, as you hit your $800 million debt reduction target for this year, do you shift back to that 50% plus return on free cash flow to shareholders? Is that something that you get to? Or if gas prices are a bit higher, oil prices are a bit higher, you just accelerate deleveraging a bit more? Thanks.

speaker
Marianella Foskey
CFO

It's more of the latter. We will certainly look to accelerate our balance sheet goals further, Josh. And like I said earlier, we'll be opportunistic of anything in excess of that. But our top priority, again, is hitting that four and a half with an eye to one time slate next year.

speaker
Josh Silverstein
Analyst, UBS

Got it. Thanks. And then maybe just on the inventory front, the past four years you've been talking about inventory in the Wolf Camp D, particularly in the Midland side. Where does that stand now? And is that in the 1,200 location count?

speaker
Chris Doyle
CEO

Yeah, thanks, Josh. It is in the 1200 location count. We had about 10% of our program last year, really delineating the Wolf Camp D, north, south, east, west. Excited about the results that we've seen, just as excited with the capital performance that the team delivered. where you're seeing about 10% higher capital for 15% more productive wells. And so what we're seeing is the D will compete for capital. We're stepping up our D development this year, probably about 20% of our Permian program. And so excited to see with additional swings at the plate, if we can tighten those capital costs even further and continue to repeat the strong well performance. But D is certainly in there. I wouldn't say it's our primary target, like the Wolf Camp A, Wolf Camp B on the Midland side, and Wolf Camp A, Third Bone on Delaware. But it's certainly a very exciting course and happy to allocate some capital towards it in 2025.

speaker
Josh Silverstein
Analyst, UBS

Great. Thanks, guys.

speaker
Jadine
Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Neil Dingman from Tuis Securities. Sir, please go ahead.

speaker
Neil Dingman
Analyst, Tuis Securities

Hey, thanks for the time. Good morning. Chris, my first question may be for you or Sam, just a little bit like you just talked about on the Midland side. My question is more on the Delaware side. It seems like you're just now sort of getting after that. Based on what you're seeing now after re-permitting and doing some things there, are the opportunities there, I guess I'd say is the opportunity set as good now as ever you've seen, you know, when you were initially looking at it, or maybe just talk about how you see that side and, you know, what type of activity we could expect maybe the latter part of this year and going to next year in the Dell.

speaker
Chris Doyle
CEO

Sure. Thanks for the question, Neil. You know, as we thought about allocating capital between Midland and Delaware, we really wanted to shift to the higher return Delaware inventory, but we saw a real opportunity to further optimize development. Previous operator was was willing to drill shorter laterals. We had a team that got in there and said, hey, we could take a one-mile well and turn it into a two and greatly increase capital efficiency and increase the returns of that program. It was going to take some time, right, not only for the ground game to work itself through the system, but also then to re-permit. Now that's behind us. The team's done a great job building up that position and optimizing – The opportunity over there, and so we're allocating more capital to the Delaware, which is, which is fantastic to see as as a year last year. We had about 20% of our tools come out of the Delaware this year. About 40% of our activity is going to be pointed there. So we're leaning in there. And as, you know, Lee county is where the 2 rigs are currently. We're really excited about the opportunities there and look forward to getting those wells online. But. Kudos to the team to take the time to do the right things, go through the steps to further enhance the returns, and we're ready to deploy capital over there. So excited what we're seeing.

speaker
Neil Dingman
Analyst, Tuis Securities

Got it. And then just lastly, just a little minor third-party issue. I'm just wondering when it comes to sort of midstream infrastructure, all that, do you all feel pretty good now where you sit on, you know, pretty nicely, you haven't had really virtually any issues. Seems like over in the DJ side recently, I just want to know, when you look at both sides, you feel pretty good about infrastructure going forward.

speaker
Chris Doyle
CEO

Yeah, we unfortunately had the third-party issue in the first quarter, alongside weather, probably a couple thousand barrels of impact to the DJ. So we certainly hit it, but the team did a really good job of finding multiple outlets and minimizing the impact of the third-party processor issue and We worked around it, but we were down for about four or six weeks. And so we feel good with where we are. As you know, in the Permian, Permian is much a water and gas business with oil as a secondary product there. And so teams out front ahead of all our kills and getting our water placed and feel good about our ability to execute and deliver our 25 plan. Great details. Thanks, Chris. Thanks, Neil.

speaker
Jadine
Operator

Again, should you have a question, kindly press star followed by the number one. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Hennel from RBC Capital Markets. Sir, please go ahead.

speaker
Scott Hennel
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Yeah, thank you all. You know, my first question is just on, you know, effectively the reset of the outlook in 2025 and beyond. You know, can you talk through You know, the process of making the decisions you all did, obviously, you know, making some hard decisions here. But like, what were some of the other options? And, you know, obviously, your path here you're taking is one option. Did you look at others, like, you know, larger M&A, you know, divestitures, as was, you know, discussed out in some market reports? Can you just talk about, like, some of the options you looked at and the decision and thought process into, you know, the 2025 plus plan?

speaker
Chris Doyle
CEO

Yeah, thanks for the question, Scott. So first, as we thought about setting 2025 up, we had a couple of different paths just with the business as is. As we've talked about in the past, the level of activity in 2024 was not at a maintenance level to support 160,000 barrels of oil a day. In addition to that, it was very front-loaded, which really stopped the engine towards the end of the year. One option that we had was to increase activity and maintain 160,000 barrels of oil a day. As we looked at and considered the volatility in the macro that we're seeing currently, we didn't think it was the right thing to double down, invest a couple hundred more million dollars to maintain 160,000 barrels of oil a day. We believe the best thing for the business long term was to reset to the 150 to 155. fuel out capital and hit that maintenance level of 1.8 to 1.9. In terms of question around the larger M&A paths, we won't comment specifically on any rumors out there, certainly. But I will say that this is a team that is focused on long-term, creating a long-term sustainable business that generates significant value for our shareholders. If there are opportunities to accelerate some of that value, and that's any asset, not just DJ or just Permian, if there's an opportunity to accelerate value for our shareholders, we will certainly take it very seriously. I will say, as evidenced by the $300 million divestment target, we are out there looking for ways to identify assets that could be more valuable in others' hands and use that to offset what we thought was a really attractive bolt-on in the Midland Basin and really a rotation to extend the runway into the Permian. So I think more to come on that front, Scott, but a lot of work and a lot of diligence to go into laying out this plan as the best path for this company long-term.

speaker
Scott Hennel
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Yeah, and maybe to play a little bit off some of the latter comments there, I mean, you know, obviously, you know, potentially the investors seem like they're going to be targeting some, you know, more so in the DJ and you've obviously bolted onto the Permian. So, you know, as you, as you look at, you know, your inventory runway of 1200 Permian locations, I mean, is, is, you know, you know, a couple of questions here. One, you know, how do you comfortably you feel with your inventory duration of what you would view as core wells? And do you see yourselves becoming more of a Permian company over time?

speaker
Chris Doyle
CEO

I'd like to say we're a returns company, and whether we get those returns from the DJ or the Permian, that's what we'll go after. We see the opportunity in the Permian really to scale our business or saw the opportunity to scale our business and diversify it. In terms of the 1,200 locations, we're sitting about eight or nine years of stay-flat inventory. We've talked about wanting to extend that. Again, given the macro where it is, I feel very comfortable with where we are and our ability to really focus, refocus and send excess free cash to our balance sheet without the need to really participate in what have been extremely competitive asset transactions there in the Permian. And the DJ was interesting, not just through ground game, but re-looking at a brand new or continually improving capital operating structure and what the team has been able to do to expand tiers out more than replacing inventory that we sold and that we drilled in the year, I think was a great achievement for the team. But we're sitting there with eight-plus years of estate flat inventory as well. Now, as we get further down the dispatch curve, is the capital efficiency of those last couple years the same as the next five? No, probably not. But we do have a team that is demonstrating the ability to drive additional efficiencies, to take returns, whether it's extending laterals or optimizing completion rates. designs to take lower returns and improve those with time. And so we feel very comfortable that this is a plan that is sustainable, that will deliver sustainable free cash flow and allow us to achieve all of our balance sheet goals and at the same time return significant capital to our shareholders.

speaker
Jadine
Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Leo Mariani from Roth Capital. Sarah, please go ahead.

speaker
Leo Mariani
Analyst, Roth Capital

Yeah, I wanted to follow up a little bit about some of your comments around M&A. Clearly, you talked a little about divestitures, but I'm just curious. You mentioned very competitive Permian markets, but in kind of a perfect world, is there a pretty healthy appetite for the company to try to add inventory in the Permian through M&A?

speaker
Chris Doyle
CEO

Yeah, I would say our number one goal for 2025 is hitting that net debt target at the end of the year, the 4.5%. As we're doing with the bolt-on in Midland, rotating out predominantly DJ developed assets to fund that, we'll see if there are similar opportunities to do that. But our number one focus, given the inventory duration that we currently have and given the macro that we see, is really taking that excess cash to the balance sheet first and foremost. And we'll continue to look for ways to accelerate our de-levering and to accelerate our returns to our shareholders. But our number one focus this year is that $4.5 billion net debt target.

speaker
Leo Mariani
Analyst, Roth Capital

Okay. And then just jumping over to the LOE side. LOE obviously went up here in 4Q. Just trying to get a sense, was a lot of this driven by the permian, or did you all also see healthy increases in the DJs?

speaker
Chris Doyle
CEO

Yeah, you always see in the DJ and the Permian with winter LOE jump up a little bit. The 4Q really was led by a higher LOE than expected in the Permian. Winterization projects, a little more active work over plan. And we'll see that continue into the first quarter before it moderates back. But we take this very seriously. And this is, you know, our cost structure as we think about cash GNA and cash LOE is That's a differentiator for any company in a commodity business. It's why we made some of the hard decisions that we made recently to reaffirm and reestablish and sustain that low cost stance. And so specific to your question on 4Q, it was really winter related and work over activity, but teams working through that and will get us back into top quartile cost structure. We're very comfortable. What's that?

speaker
Marianella Foskey
CFO

So essentially all the increased quarter report was driven by Permian like Chris discussed. Rocky or DJ was actually flat quarter over quarter. You know, I think as we see, as we look out, you know, we have a cash or a LOE target that's probably going to be somewhere in between Q3 and Q4 that were, like Chris discussed, quite a bit of one-time items in the fourth quarter that won't be recurring. But you know, all-in, high nines on a per BOE basis, which we believe is peer-leading for our asset base.

speaker
John Abbott
Analyst, Wolf Research

Thank you.

speaker
Jadine
Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Abbott from Wolf Research.

speaker
John Abbott
Analyst, Wolf Research

Hey, good morning, and thank you very much for taking our questions. So with the focus here on free cash flow, maximizing that, speak a little bit about the trajectory of how you see future cash taxes over the next three-year period of time, and when do you see yourself paying sort of the alternative tax? What's your latest thoughts on cash taxes?

speaker
Marianella Foskey
CFO

Thanks, Sean. So this year, cash tax guidance tends to $30 million. It's going to be fairly flat into 2026, maybe a little bit higher, closer to the high end of this year's range next year. As far as AMT, we don't hit AMT until around $80 a barrel. So there's nothing additional to model pursuant to AMT.

speaker
John Abbott
Analyst, Wolf Research

Appreciate it. And then, Chris, I mean, the focus right now is on deleveraging the balance sheet. You're looking at the commodity environment. But as you sort of sit down and think about your inventory, let's say the commodity environment improves. And what is your willingness to actually grow at that period of time, having lowered your oil guide at this period of time? You only have so many years of production. What would you do? Would you add a rig? How do you think about growth if there was a change in the commodity and price environment?

speaker
Chris Doyle
CEO

Thanks for the question, John. If the macro completely flips and it's very bullish towards the end of this year or into next, we will be responsive to that macro environment. We like this plan as we roll it forward, the ability to generate sustainable free cash and take that to the balance sheet. If we saw a solidifying of the commodity price instead of backward dating into the 60s, some more solid foundation, you could see us potentially lean in a little bit on activity, but only if we're well advanced of our balance sheet targets for the year and for longer term. And so this is a team that will continually look at ways to further optimize the way we allocate capital. And as things shift like that, we will be responsive and not overreact, but certainly responsive to the macro and And, you know, given the success that both the DJ and the Permian teams have had over the past year, really replacing and extending inventory, we have the option to lean in a little bit. All eyes right now are focused on that $4.5 billion year-end target.

speaker
John Abbott
Analyst, Wolf Research

Appreciate it. Thank you very much for taking our questions. Thanks, John.

speaker
Jadine
Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Noah Parks from Tooley Brothers. Sir, please go ahead.

speaker
Noah Parks
Analyst, Tooley Brothers

Hi, good morning. You know, you did touch a bit earlier on the potential for increased oil volatility. And I think you mentioned that, in a way, being conservative with activity and CAPEX is sort of the first line of defense against that. do you have a general view on oil volatility over the next few years? I mean, leaving total black swan events aside, do you sort of anticipate increasing volatility or volatility, you know, maybe sort of settling down over the next few years?

speaker
Chris Doyle
CEO

Yeah, I think, uh, first I would say what we've seen, uh, is, is pretty significant volatility, right? Oil was 80 bucks a month ago. Uh, now it's backwardated into the sixties. Um, We'll see if that continues, right? And we're not going to sit here and prognosticate which way that will go. But I will say the first line of defense before even activity levels and taking a more conservative approach to capital allocations is affirming and establishing a low cost structure. Again, it's something we spend a lot of time on. And again, looking at some of the difficult decisions we've made really to solidify that peer-leading cost structure, to us that is the first defense against that volatility.

speaker
Noah Parks
Analyst, Tooley Brothers

Great. Thanks a lot. And just to clarify something on the guidance, some of the sensitivities shown in the slides, Since the free cash flow has so much upward sensitivity with commodity pricing, I just wanted to double check. The $1.1 billion, I think it is a free cash flow estimate at $70, that would not count the $550 million in delayed compensation you're paying for Venture since that was cost incurred last year, if I have that right. Is that right?

speaker
Marianella Foskey
CFO

That's correct. That's just clean, free cash flow. No, the $475 million deferred acquisition with Venture, that was already paid, and that was just paying out in debt we had at the end of the year. So it doesn't impact a 1.1 free cash flow in any way.

speaker
Noah Parks
Analyst, Tooley Brothers

Great. Thanks a lot.

speaker
Jadine
Operator

Thank you. That concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Brad for closing remarks.

speaker
Brad
Head of Investor Relations

Really appreciate everyone for joining us today for the Q&A session. May and I are certainly around the next several days for additional follow-up. We look forward to seeing you on the conference circuit here over the next couple of weeks, and we hope you have a great day.

speaker
Jadine
Operator

That concludes our conference call. Thank you for joining today, and you may now disconnect.

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