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ConocoPhillips
11/6/2025
Welcome to the third quarter 2025 ConocoPhillips earnings conference call. My name is Liz, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. During the question and answer session, if you have a question, please press star 1-1 on your touchtone phone. I will now turn the call over to Guy Baber, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Thank you, Liz, and welcome everyone to our third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team, including Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO, Andy O'Brien, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Strategy and Commercial, Nick Olds, Executive Vice President of Lower 48 and Global HSE, and Kirk Johnson, Executive Vice President of Global Operations and Technical Functions. Ryan and Andy will kick off the call with opening remarks today, after which the team will be available for your questions. For Q&A, we will be taking one question per caller. A few quick reminders. First, along with today's release, we published supplemental financial materials and a slide presentation, which you can find on the Investor Relations website. Second, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's release and in our periodic SEC filings. We'll make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures today. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in today's release and on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ryan.
Thanks, Guy, and thank you to everyone for joining our third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. We have a lot to cover today, including our third quarter results, improved 2025 outlook, strategic updates, and our preliminary 2026 guidance. Now starting with our third quarter results, this was another very strong execution quarter. We again exceeded the top end of our production guidance, demonstrating the power of our diversified portfolio, with both capital spending and operating costs declining quarter on quarter. On the back of this strong performance, we raised our full year production guidance, and we have reduced our adjusted operating cost guidance for the second time this year. In fact, we have improved all our major guidance drivers since the beginning of 2025, capex, operating cost, and production, further demonstrating the strength of our team's execution. On return of capital, we raised our base dividend by 8%, consistent with our goal to deliver top quartile dividend growth relative to the S&P 500. This type of dividend growth is sustainable, given the strength of our outlook and expectation for our free cash flow breakeven to decline into the low 30s WTI by the end of the decade. Year to date, we've returned about 45% of our CFO to shareholders, in line with our full year guidance and our longer term track record. Turning to our strategic updates, at the Willow Project in Alaska, After completing our largest winter construction season and conducting a comprehensive project review, we have increased our project capital estimate to $8.5 to $9 billion. This change is primarily attributable to higher than expected general inflation and localized North Slope cost escalation. Despite cost pressures, we have maintained the project schedule and made excellent progress on scope execution, narrowing First Oil to early 2029. We also continue to advance our global LNG projects, another key driver of our expected free cash flow inflection. We have reduced total LNG project capital by 600 million. Our three equity projects, NFE and NFS in Qatar, and phase one at Port Arthur LNG are on track and have been substantially de-risked. Capital spending is now about 80% complete with our first startup expected next year at NFE. Looking ahead to 2026, recognizing it's early, the macro remains volatile, and that our portfolio is highly flexible, our preliminary guidance for both CAPEX and OPEX is to be improved significantly, down about $1 billion on a combined basis from this year. And in fact, relative to our pro forma 2024, they are down about $3 billion. Underlying production should be flat to up next year, a reasonable starting point given the current macro environment. Looking beyond just the near term, ConocoPhillips continues to offer a compelling value proposition to the market, one that is differentiated relative to our sector and to the broader S&P 500. We believe we have the highest quality asset base in our peer space. Our global portfolio is deep, durable, and diverse. with the most advantaged U.S. inventory position in the sector. We are uniquely investing in our portfolio and driving significant efficiencies throughout the organization to deliver improving returns on and of capital and a leading multi-year free cash flow growth profile. Consistent with our guidance last quarter, we continue to expect the four major projects we are progressing along with our recently announced cost reduction and margin enhancement efforts, to drive a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029, potentially doubling the consensus expectation for free cash flow this year. That free cash flow inflection is now underway. We expect to realize about $1 billion annually through 2026 through 2028, before an additional $4 billion in 2029 once Willow comes online. That's a growth trajectory that's unmatched in our sector. So bottom line, we're performing well, we're delivering on our plan, and we're well positioned for 2026 and beyond. Now with that, let me turn the call over to Andy to cover our third quarter performance, major project updates, and 2026 guidance in more detail.
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