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spk05: Good afternoon. My name is Annie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Carlisle Company's fourth quarter 2020 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, we will conduct a question and answer session. I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Jim Giannacoros, Carlisle's Vice President of Investor Relations. Jim, go ahead.
spk10: Thank you, Annie. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Carlisle's fourth quarter 2020 earnings conference call. We released our fourth quarter financial results after the market closed today, and you can find both our press release and earnings call slide presentation on our website at www.carlisle.com in the investor relations section. On the call with me today are Chris Koch, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, and Bob Roach, our Chief Financial Officer. Today's call will begin with Chris discussing business trends experienced during the fourth quarter of 2020, views of what's to come in 2021, and context around our continued confidence in achieving Vision 2025. Bob will discuss Carlisle's fourth quarter performance and current financial position. Following Chris and Bob's remarks, we will open up the line for questions. Before we begin, Please refer to slide two of our presentation where we note that comments made on this call may include forward-looking statements based on current expectations that involve risks and uncertainties, which would cause actual results to be materially different. A discussion of some of these risks and uncertainties are provided in our press release and in our SEC filings on Forms 10-K and 10-Q. Those considering investing in Carlyle should read these statements carefully and review reports we file with the SEC before making an investment decision. With that, I will turn the call over to Chris.
spk09: Thanks, Jim. Good afternoon, everyone. Entering what is now the second year of operating in this COVID-19 pandemic, I hope everyone is healthy and staying safe. I'd like to open by saying how proud I am of the global Carlyle team for their perseverance and ability to execute in these uncertain times. Our COVID statistics reflect the strong compliance to the CDC guidelines and safety measures all Carlyle employees have followed. In 2020, we suffered 470 infections, 15 hospitalizations, and sadly, three deaths. We continue to do our part to combat the spread of the virus. In combination with further progress on the vaccination rollout, we anticipate that we will continue to show our safety measures are working. Because at Carlisle, maintaining health and safety is always our first priority. Vision 2025 provided clear direction and consistency of mission during a tumultuous 2020 and will continue to guide our efforts as we accelerate into the recovery. As we pass the mid-year mark and entered the third quarter, we continued to build on the momentum started in late Q2 when our employees, customers, and supply chain partners increasingly were able to work safely and efficiently. and begin to get back to contributing to economic growth. As the global community returned to work, strong underlying deferred demand became more evident, especially in our building products business. While we expect this momentum to continue as vaccines help decrease risk, the construction industry is still contending with uneven regional disruptions due to COVID restrictions, severe weather in certain areas, and tight labor dynamics, which is resulting in deferred demand continuing to build the backlog of work. Turning to slide four, 2020 demonstrated yet again the exceptional and sustainable earnings power of the Carlyle business model. Over the past several decades, Carlyle has been categorized as a diversified industrial company, and rightly so, as evidenced by our portfolio content, multiple acquisitions in a variety of segments ranging from fluid handling to medical technologies, and our legacy strategic goals. However, since CCM introduced the first single-ply EPDM roofing membranes to the market in the early 1960s, Carlisle's growth and earnings have increasingly been powered by our construction materials business. With over a half-century of outstanding performance, CCM's influence on our overall performance has consistently expanded despite our diversification efforts, peaking in 2020 when it accounted for over 70% of revenues and over 90% of earnings. In the past three years, CCM has accelerated their world-class performance, leveraging consistent organic growth focused on providing the ultimate in customer service, the Carlisle experience, and instituting greater price discipline, developing sophisticated sourcing and purchasing capabilities, and maintaining a continuous improvement culture, all aiming to drive increased profitability and shareholder value. In 2017, when we first contemplated Vision 2025, we turned a critical eye to our capital deployment efforts and started a pivot to a more disciplined ROI focus. It was that critical assessment and objective view of value creation that drove our focus under Vision 2025 to apply a greater investment spotlight onto CCM. A consistent 30%-plus returns business, CCM's performance warranted and earned the right to share the majority of investment dollars that were allocated to portfolio diversification, at that time a key strategy of Carlyle's legacy approach of building out higher growth and presumably higher margin platforms as a path to sustainable value creation. With the official rollout of Vision 2025 in February of 2018, our evolution was actualized, evidenced by our recent extensive M&A and capital investments at CCM. As shown on slide five, CCM has continued to evolve from its roots in the early 1960s of a simple single-ply roofing membrane division to today, where we deliver innovative, easy-to-install, and energy-efficient solutions through the Carlyle experience for customers who are creating the sustainable building of the future. With our extensive line of building envelope products, CCM offers a complete set of solutions and systems to aid in the design of efficient building envelope construction projects backed by industry-leading warranties and a focus on green principles. On slide six, you can see how this building envelope concept can deliver substantial energy savings for building owners. CCM products provide a substantial offset to the estimated 40% of greenhouse gases globally generated from the construction and maintenance of buildings. And our teams are focused on continuing to support the growing efforts in global energy efficiency. It's because of this history of innovation, investment, and continuous improvement that we have more conviction than ever that CCM's future success is secure. We believe the extensive planning of Vision 2025 identified the strengths of CCM's core markets, demonstrated the consistent re-roofing revenue stream, and elevated the power of CCM's sustainable business model. 2020 only served to crystallize our confidence. Turning to slide seven, I'd like to spend a few minutes talking in more detail about CCM's future and what drives our confidence in the CCM business model. First, as you've heard us speak about at length, CCM's core business is predominantly driven by replacement roofing demand. Non-residential buildings built 10 to 20 years ago make up over 25% of current infrastructure, and those roofs will need replacing in the next decade. As a reminder, roof replacements are not discretionary. Aided by the Carlisle experience and our market position, CCM should continue to capture replacement of installed roofing systems and grow share with new energy-efficient, labor-reducing, and cost-effective product and solutions in the $6 billion and growing market. While the majority of our core CCM business revenue comes from re-roofing, past construction cycles evidence residential construction as a strong leading indicator of new commercial construction, which augments core CCM growth. Growing residential construction demand, which accelerated in 2020, coinciding with urban relocation due to COVID-19, will require increased commercial infrastructure including big-box retailers, hospitals, warehouses, and educational buildings to support a growing population of suburban families and workers. Second, as shown in slide eight, the recent addition of our polyurethane platform to CCM included spray foam insulation, which is a sustainable, high single-digit growth market. Our top-performing formulations provide unmatched energy efficiency in both residential and non-residential applications. Driven by our industry-first concept of a combined material and equipment solution, which we call IntelliSpray, and was developed and introduced with engineering support from Carlisle Fluid Technologies, Carlisle CCM is uniquely positioned to grow at above market levels in spray polyurethane foam insulation. This innovative new system will allow us to provide the contractor, builder, and homeowner with greater application efficiency and control, savings from application efficiency improvements, and ultimately, a better foam insulation product. Third, like polyurethane, architectural metals is an exciting new platform for CCM. This billion dollar market growing at approximately two times GDP provides an attractive opportunity to diversify into the sloped roof market with a highly sustainable product. Our metals platform is seeing healthy organic growth as it offers a lasting high ROI system solution to building owners, generating solid pull through sales of CCM insulation and underlayment products. To support our regional growth strategy, we are expanding our metals footprint in 2021 by opening three new locations in the US. Metal roofing systems also complement our drive to deliver solutions to support the construction of an efficient building envelope. Metal roofs are 100% recyclable, increase energy efficiency of a building up to 20% versus traditional materials, and reduce waste in the manufacturing process. Fourth, we are committed to accelerating growth in Europe, a 10 billion euro addressable market. To drive this growth, we recently changed leadership in the region and announced the investment of over $25 million to expand capacity in our German manufacturing facility. Increasing demand and regulations for improved thermal performance along with integrated roofing systems are driving a shift to single-ply membranes in Europe. CCM's leading environmental and energy-efficient solutions lend themselves well to trends in the European market. Recent industry dynamics reinforce our belief that increasing our focus on our building products platform is the right strategy. The new ownership of a recently acquired competitor and an announced management addition at another competitor shows the widespread belief of the strong prospects for the non-residential building product space. Industry dynamics also support our strategy to accelerate growth in Europe. And finally, as was widely discussed after the recent acquisition, our increased focus on delivering the Carlisle experience for the sustainable building of the future is in line with macro industry trends. Before moving to our three other businesses, I want to reiterate how remarkable our CCM Business M team performed in 2020. CCM was largely the story for Carlisle in 2020. And we expect that to continue into 2021 and beyond. Regarding our other three businesses on slide nine, 2020 was obviously a difficult year due to the pandemic. In the face of significant declines, the teams did a commendable job managing through the crisis, taking actions to reduce costs and position their businesses for the future, including leveraging COS, investing in new product development, and right-sizing footprints. While the results did not meet our expectations, these remain good, very good businesses with solid management teams committed to weathering the current macroeconomic challenges. We are optimistic that the actions taken in 2020 to improve CIT, CFT, and CBF will position these businesses for a solid recovery, especially in 2021 for CFT and CBF where markets have signaled the bottom. And while we believe CIT will recover over a longer timeline, We are confident that there will be a recovery. With higher inoculation rates from rapid vaccine rollouts, easing of COVID travel restrictions, and an improved outlook for both aerospace and hospital capital spending, CIT will drive exceptional leverage with a resumption of growth. Before Bob gives the financial details of the quarter, I'd like to touch on a few other notable achievements of 2020. Please turn to slide 10. We've generated $2.5 billion of free cash flow over the last six years and recently accelerating significantly with almost half that was generated in 2019 and 2020. This track record of success supports our confidence in this team's ability to execute on our capital allocation strategy and to create value. While 2020 was a subdued year for M&A, we are managing an active pipeline for creative and synergistic acquisitions to rapidly scale our high-returning businesses. As always, our financial strength and cash flow generating capabilities afford us flexibility, and we intend to remain opportunistic. Notably, and as we've discussed in the past, when acquisition activity is subdued, we remain committed to returning capital to shareholders. This is evidenced by our deployment of more than $380 million in share repurchases in 2020, totaling approximately $1.5 billion in share repurchases since 2017. And at our latest board meeting, our board approved an incremental $5 million share repurchase authorization for Carlisle. We also returned over $112 million to shareholders in the form of dividends in 2020, raising our dividend in August for the 44th consecutive year. Finally, we spent $96 million of CapEx in 2020, and that plans to significantly increase that in 2021. On slide 11... We touch on our continued and expanded actions around ESG, where Carlyle remains steadfast in our commitment. Supported by COS, we are continually examining ways to improve the design and manufacture of our products, seeking to better engage our employees and communities, and improve an already strong regulatory framework. In 2020, we also made progress in diversity and inclusion, exiting 2020 with 50% of our board of directors identifying as gender, racially, or ethnically diverse. and meeting our 2020 target for percent of females in senior leadership positions. As we've stated many times before, ESG is part of Carlyle's culture of continuous improvement, and we look forward to sharing more progress with you in the future. We also encourage you to read more about Carlyle's ESG efforts on the sustainability pages of our website. Please turn to slide 12, where we cover the Carlyle operating system. In 2020, COS delivered savings of 1.3 percent of sales well within our vision 2025 annual target of 1% to 2%. A remarkable feat considering 2020's challenging conditions and proving that Carlisle employees truly embody and live our continuous improvement culture every day. Another major milestone in 2020 was the launch of the Path to Zero, which represents our commitment to creating the safest possible work environment and features the goal of zero accidents and zero injuries. COS will continue to be a unifying cultural imperative for our businesses to rely on as they seek new opportunities to make our operations and business processes more efficient. Bob will now provide operational and financial details about our fourth quarter and review our balance sheet and cash flow. Bob?
spk11: Thank you, Chris. Please turn to the revenue bridge on slide 13 of the presentation. Revenue decreased 7% to $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter. Organic revenue declined 9%. Acquisitions contributed 1.4% of sales growth for the quarter, and FX was a 60 basis point tail end. Turning to our margin bridge on slide 14. Q4 operating margin declined 180 basis points. Pricing and volume headwinds combined for a 320 basis point decline, and acquisitions were a 40 basis point tail end. Offsetting these declines, freight, labor, raw material, and other operating costs netted to a 60 basis point improvement. COS benefits added 120 basis points. On slide 15, we have provided an EPS bridge, where you can see the fourth quarter diluted EPS from continuing operations to $1.57, which compares to $1.81 last year. Volume price and mix combined were a 74-cent year-over-year decrease. Partially offsetting, interest and tax contributed 9 cents, and raw material, freight, and labor costs netted to a 16-cent benefit. Share repurchases contributed 9 cents. COS contributed 19 cents. And finally, operating expenses worth 3-cent headwind. While COVID-related volume declines, clearly represented the most significant headwind during the quarter. Our teams around the world did a commendable job managing costs, leveraging COS to improve efficiencies, and taking actions to both position Carlisle for the recovery while mitigating the pandemic impact on earnings. Now let's turn to slide 16 to review the fourth quarter performance by segment in more detail. At CCM, the team again delivered outstanding results with revenues increasing 1%, driven by volume and 30 basis points of foreign currency translation tailwind. CCM continued to exhibit its resilience with solid U.S. commercial roofing performance, despite the continued COVID-related restrictions in some areas, restraining the recovery. Our newer platforms of architectural metals and polyurethanes were solid contributors to the quarter's revenue performance. Operating margin at CCM was a record 20.4% for the fourth quarter, a 350 base improvement over last year driven by CCM team's superb cost management and COS partially offset by wage inflation. CCM executed well in delivering approximately $15 million of net price cost realization in the quarter. Please now turn to slide 17 to review CIT's results. CIT's revenue declined 35.4% in the fourth quarter. As well publicized, this decline was driven by the crisis in commercial aerospace markets. While the recovery in aerospace could be prolonged, we are confident that there will be a resumption of growth with the continued rollout of the COVID vaccine and airlines returning to profitability. In other positive recent news, the 737 MAX 8 has been cleared for return to flight in the U.S., Europe, and South America, while TSA passenger daily checkpoint data continues to improve. In our medical platform, sales continue to be impacted by COVID-related delays in hospital capex. and postponed elective surgeries. However, our project pipeline is robust and long-term trends remain attractive, including increasing preference for minimally invasive surgeries and OEM strategies to consolidate supply chain partners. CIT's operating margin declined significantly year-over-year to a negative 8.6% driven by commercial aerospace volume declines and accelerated restructuring actions. These declines were partially offset by savings from COS, lower SGA, and price increases. While the actions taken by CIT in 2020 to right-size our footprint and reduce our overall workforce were difficult, we are positioned to deliver improved operating income performance when the volumes return. Turning now to slide 18. CFT sales declined 8.3% year-over-year. Organic revenue declined 16.1%. and additionally acquisitions added 5% in the quarter. FX contributed 280 basis points. Stabilization in key end markets driven by an improved industrial capital spending outlook in 2021, coupled with recent management additions, new product introductions, pricing resolve, and CFT's efforts to upgrade the customer experience and position CFT well as we enter 2021. Operating income of 4.5% was an 820 basis point decline year on year. This decline was driven by lower volumes, restructuring and raw material costs, partially offset by price and efficiencies from COS and lower SG&A. Turning to CDF on slide 19. CDF's fourth quarter organic revenue grew 2.8% and FX had a positive 2.6% impact. driving CBF growth of 5.4% in the quarter. Demand for agriculture and construction equipment were the primary drivers, while orders in all regions improved throughout the second half of 2020. Operating income was $8 million at 1.1% operating margin. Flat to the fourth quarter of 2019, driven primarily by unfavorable mix in aerospace markets, wage inflation, offset by COS efficiencies, increased volumes, and tight cost controls. On Flags 20 and 21, we show selected balance sheet metrics. Our balance sheet remains strong. We ended the quarter with $902 million of cash on hand and $1 billion of availability under our revolving credit line. We continue to approach capital deployment in a balanced and disciplined manner, investing organic growth through CapEx and opportunistically pushing shares while also actively seeking strategic and synergistic acquisitions. Free cash flow for 2020 was an exceptional $601 million, consistent with 19 results on the lower sales volumes. Turning to slide 22, you can see the outlook for 2021 on items affecting comparability in corporate items. Corporate expense is expected to be approximately $105 million for the year. We expect appreciation and amortization expense to be approximately $225 million. For the full year, we will continue to invest in our businesses and now expect capital expenditures of $100 to $175 million. Net interest expense is expected to be approximately $75 million for the year, and we expect our tax rate to be approximately 25%. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Chris.
spk09: Thanks, Bob. In closing, I want to once again express my thanks to our dedicated employees, their families, our business partners, and all those associated with Carlisle's success. Without you, we could not have weathered and overcome the significant challenges of 2020. Entering 2021, we are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for Carlisle. We will continue to benefit from the strength of the Carlisle business model and enhance our strong earnings power by investing in our high returning businesses. We will continue to deploy capital into strategic acquisitions, share repurchases, and dividends, all the while maintaining our commitment to delivering returns on invested capital in excess of 15% and ultimately driving to $15 of earnings per share. While there are clearly many uncertainties around the pandemic, including the effectiveness of the rollout of the vaccines, we want to keep investors informed on our views of our businesses and markets. As such, we offer 2021 guidance based upon where we are today, while fully acknowledging that we are in uncertain and turbulent times. For full year 2021, we anticipate the following. At CCM, supported by re-roofing project deferrals that occurred in 2020, positive momentum in our newer businesses of architectural metals, polyurethanes, expansion of our European businesses, and a decrease in complexity to complete jobs as COVID restrictions ease, we anticipate revenue growth of high single digits in 2021. At CIT, we believe that rapid COVID inoculation will drive an improvement in business and leisure travel exiting 2021. Aircraft manufacturers are indicating production rates will rise towards the end of 2021. These trends are coupled with an improved order book for medical products and solutions as hospital capital investments in elective surgeries resume. That said, we anticipate pressures remain near term, and given a very difficult year-over-year comparison in the first quarter, we expect CIT revenue will decline in the mid- to high-single-digit range in full year 2021. With ordered books strengthening for both CFT and CBF and end market stabilizing, we anticipate low double-digit growth for both businesses. On behalf of the approximately 13,000 employees at Carlyle, thank you again for the trust you place in us. This concludes our formal comments, Annie. We're now ready for questions.
spk05: thank you sir as a reminder to ask a question you will need to press star one on your telephone again that is star one on your telephone keypad to enjoy your question press the power key we have a first question from the line of brian blair from oppenheimer your line is open you may ask your question please thanks good afternoon guys
spk06: Chris, you briefly mentioned the major development in the commercial roofing industry about a month ago with the large CCM competitor changing hands. Obviously, very early days here, but I was wondering if you could share a little more color on how your team thinks about the high-level implications of that deal and balances thoughts on competitive risks and opportunities looking forward.
spk09: I think in general we view the entrance of the European group into the market as being positive. I think obviously well-run organization with solid margin expectations for their other businesses and also I think operating in a perhaps more ESG-focused environment in Europe, which should bring good things to the industry as a whole. So I think in general it brings attention to The great business model we have here in CCM and in the industry, I think it brings attention to the good things that our products are doing and solutions are doing globally. And so I would say the team obviously is highly competitive and will be highly competitive with any entrant, but I think it's a neutral at worst.
spk06: Makes sense. Sticking with CCM, how are volumes trending to start the year? I believe you still face a reasonably tough comp through February. I was just curious about momentum ahead of the lower bar in March and obviously through the second and third quarter.
spk09: Yeah, I think you see how we came out of the fourth quarter, and obviously it wasn't huge growth, but it was growth, and I think it was very consistent with what we felt about the model and kind of thought would happen and talked about as the year went on. So obviously things got better sequentially. Obviously, Q1 is a difficult comp. I would say that we just see the trends of Q4 continuing, and it likely will be something like you saw in Q4.
spk06: Got it. And investors are obviously focused on inflationary trends right now, and particularly oil and gas-based draws with you guys. We know there was pricing in 4Q when you put out a reasonably aggressive increase that I believe kicks in a little later this quarter. How confident are you in price sticking in this environment? And how should we think about the cadence of price cost impact of the year?
spk09: From my perspective, it was very satisfying to see that the price increases that occurred were quickly embraced by a lot of parties. And we also see widespread support in other construction-related products for price increases. So my belief is that we will see traction on price, as you said, becomes effective in full, you know, a little bit later on, especially as volumes rise, it becomes more impactful as we get further into the end of the year. And I think on the raw materials side, our team obviously sees that there is some inflationary pressures, but we have done a lot, as I mentioned in the call, on our sourcing and purchasing initiatives to set up what we think is a a good situation for us vis-a-vis raw material increases. And so, you know, we think it'll be relatively neutral as we sit here today for the year with respect to price and raw materials. But again, it's early days and, you know, the first quarter is sometimes no indicator of the future as we saw last year when first quarter was good and then COVID hit. Bob, you want to add anything to that?
spk11: Yeah, I think, Brian, you know, we've talked about this every year, that pricing traction usually doesn't happen until we see volume starting to pick up in the second quarter. So we would expect, you know, while Chris mentioned we expect to be flat for the year, we expect a little pressure in the first half and then that recovering in the second half as prices get fully up to speed with volumes pick up.
spk06: Understood. Thanks again. Yeah, thanks, Brian.
spk05: Thank you, sir. We do have another question from the line of Team White from Baird. Your line is open. You may ask your question, please.
spk03: Hey, guys. Thanks. Nice job. Thanks for the color that you guys provided in the slides. It's very helpful. So I guess on Europe and metal and polyurethane, is there a way just to kind of square up how big those businesses are today and kind of maybe where the margins are, maybe in aggregate, and if they can kind of get to parity with the overall single-ply business over time?
spk09: Yeah, I'll let Bob get in. Obviously, Europe, polyurethanes, and metals, compared to our core roofing materials, are smaller. The growth rate's at least in polyurethanes and metals, is higher. We would think with conversion in Europe that Europe growth rates would be higher than our core growth rates as well. And then on margin, they have been, as you are well aware, Tim, a Both acquisitions, the margins weren't where we wanted them to be. We're making progress against that. But we ultimately think they could be in that, you know, range we've talked about for CCM and contribute positively. So, Bob, do you want to add anything to that?
spk11: Yeah, Tim, I mean, we talked about this before with our European business, you know, being in the $150 million range, polyurethanes, you know, in the low 300s. and then architectural metals as when we bought them and put them together and then grew them since then a little over 250. And margins are approaching, you know, combined on the 10% range as we get them more efficient, grow those businesses, put COS in, focus on pricing. They improve every quarter. So we're positive on them. And, again, as volumes accelerate, we expect margins to increase rapidly.
spk03: Okay. Okay, that's helpful. And then on the medical business within CIT, could you just kind of level set us there in terms of where you are in terms of growth and margins? Because, you know, I think that's a pretty sizable contributor to 2025, you know, to get that business to a billion dollars and be kind of 2020, you know, 20% margin. So just trying to think through where that business is today and kind of the levers you need to pull to be able to reach those targets.
spk09: Yeah, I think, Tim, Bob's going to want to jump in on this in a little more detail, but I think you're absolutely right that medical is going to be a big contributor. We've talked about, and unfortunately, it didn't get there prior to the aerospace decline here with COVID, but medical is highly, you know, that medtech segment has strong margins in excess of what we had expected for CIT core aerospace business, so it'll definitely be a contributor, and I think We've got to continue to build out the new products, work with the OEs, which we're doing. And, in fact, COVID really set that back. I think we had, last time we really discussed projects, I think we had 70-plus new projects with medical OEMs. And really when we were forced to do the, you know, deal with the work-from-home situation for a lot of them, it slowed things down. So, Bob, do you want to get some more commentary on?
spk11: Yeah, Tim. I mean, overall, the business is, you know, give or take a little over $200, $225 million for 2020, the total medical business, including Providian and the core. The core medical business, you know, before we did the acquisition, approaching mid-teens. So we're very happy once we get these things integrated, get them running well. put COS in that they're valuable businesses. Obviously, with Providian coming in, the purchase accounting and everything going on, you know, that's closer to break even. But we're very positive in the margins going forward as volumes start picking up and we're able to get the efficiencies that we contemplated in the deal model.
spk03: Okay. Okay, great. And then just on the pace of growth within Interconnects, You do have a pretty tough Q1 in terms of a comp. How would you think about that business kind of building through the year? What's, I guess, kind of baked into the mid to high single-digit decline forecast?
spk11: Yeah, we'd expect the first quarter to be tough. I know I think in the fourth quarter we're calling that probably the bottom. We expect, you know, a $5 million decline from Q4 to Q1, and then growing from there a little bit of decline year on year in Q2, because you remember Q2 was even a little bit strong for our CIT business overall with aerospace not fully being out yet, and then growing nicely in Q3 and Q4. back as build rates start up again.
spk03: Okay. Okay. Appreciate it. Have a good rest of the week, and good luck on the year, guys. Thanks, Jim.
spk05: Thank you, sir. We do have another question from the line of Sari Boroditsky from Jeffress. Your line is open. You may ask your question. Thanks.
spk01: So going on the last question on CIT, could you – Could you just de-aggregate what you saw on the aerospace side versus medical in the quarter and then within your outlook for 2021?
spk11: So what are we seeing in aerospace?
spk01: Versus medical in the fourth quarter and then in your outlook.
spk11: Yeah, I mean, fourth quarter we're down, you know, in aerospace over 50%. So it's continuing to be down. And then the difference made up is, you know, test and measurement and medical. So medical is still not overall growing great due to the JAPEX in the hospitals, but aerospace is down significantly as you know. It overwhelms the medical part. It's just so big, the aerospace part.
spk10: Yeah, you have, hey, this is Jim, medical flattish in the quarter and other areas, you know, typically down. So hopefully that helps you get there.
spk01: Okay, and it looks like you're going to continue to have restructuring charges in that segment. Could you just talk about some of the cost backs you're taking and expected savings going forward?
spk11: Yeah, those are largely carryover costs from this year from what we announced in Ken Washington closure. Because, as you know, and we've talked about before, the moving an aerospace facility takes a long time, and we expect that not to be fully moved and shut until the second half of this year and all those charges related to the Kent closure.
spk01: Okay, and, Schless, for me, there was great color on your ESG positioning and the impact of recruiting on energy savings in the slides and in your comments. I was just wondering, are you seeing any customers pull ahead re-roofing projects in order to increase energy efficiency? And outside of Europe, are you seeing any government policies help spur that demand? Thank you.
spk09: Yeah, I think on the pulling forward, we've always said this. It's really difficult to pull anything forward in this environment with the tight labor situation. that we've got in the United States here. So I wouldn't say anybody's pulled anything forward from an order perspective. Obviously, if they can get things done quicker, they'll do that. I think just in general, there's an overall movement that as we continue to evolve each year, we get new products and solutions out there immediately applied to those projects where they can be. So I think the speed at which people are putting in new innovation and helping is moving at a good pace. You know, from the legislative perspective, I don't think there's any doubt that when we see a letter like we did from Larry Fink and we see the actions like the California instructions on board of directors and female content, I think we know that there is definite concrete action that is occurring. We've been very pleased that we like to think in some ways we've been at least on the curve with others, and we hope to accelerate that. And so, you know, we appointed the new vice president of sustainability this year. It's obviously a focus for our board of directors and for our management team. And as we've said all along, you know, we don't do it in response to legislative mandates. Of course, we comply with them, but really we want to get ahead of it because for Carlisle, being more energy efficient in our plants and facilities saves money and benefits the shareholder with higher returns. And applying innovative products that help our customers use less and recycle and make their operations more energy efficient is just good business for us. And certainly diversity and inclusion, we know, benefits the entire workplace for better decision-making and things like that. So while there is legislative movement, we think there's also just solid common-sense movement from an economic perspective to do these things.
spk01: I appreciate the call. Thank you.
spk00: You bet.
spk04: thank you we do have another question from the line of adam boom garden from credit swiss your line is open let me ask you a question hey guys good afternoon thanks for taking my question uh maybe to start out on ccm sales uh guidance you know high single digits does that contemplate declines in new construction as you guys lagged that from last year
spk09: Yeah, I mean, it's our best guess right now as to what's going to happen. When we talk about forecasting something like new construction declines for the year, I think obviously we put that into the equation. We also put in things into the equation like the restocking that did not occur last year. We put into that our new products growth in our different platforms. And so I would say that, yeah, we've contemplated any changes. modulation and new construction that would occur in 2021.
spk04: Okay, gotcha. And then just switching gears in TCM to input costs, I mean, how should we think about the relationship between sort of the more publicized spot prices for raw materials like MDI and how it sort of translates to your buys and maybe what kind of visibility you have and sort of, you know, maybe some of the changes you've made and how you buy MDI over the last couple of years?
spk09: Well, the way I think about it is a little bit more, well, more stability, let's say, and a little bit more stability, more certainty and ability to extend the timeframe on those modulations in pricing that may occur on the spot market on a day-to-day or week-to-week or month-to-month basis. We are a very big consumer of these products. We have over the last couple of years our our team at CCM along with our legal team and our center-led sourcing team have done a great job of going back and leveraging our volumes as well as our long-term relationships and the prospects for new products to put ourselves, we think, in a better position to have a long-term view as well as setting our pricing parameters around that 90-day target where we have stability through the quarter. And we're As you know, we're very familiar with what can happen in the spot market. When you reflect back to when we bought Acela, I think we closed and it wasn't a month or two later that force majeures were declared. And while our CCM business, and I think this is actually a good comparison, our CCM business, whether those force majeures and didn't see a spike due to the purchasing strategies and contracts we had in place, the Acela business got absolutely hammered by that spot price and And I think that's a great example of the difference between how we're buying in the spot price market. Obviously, since then, a sell is now on our type of contract. But I think that's a good example of how CCM's purchasing strategies and purchasing and sourcing actions really mitigate a lot of that up and down fluctuation. That doesn't mean that we're not going to see changes in raw material pricing when they occur. It's just going to be, I think, more modulated, and we're going to have better control, more stability, and see it in advance.
spk04: Great. Thanks a lot.
spk09: You bet. Thanks, sir.
spk05: Thank you, sir. We do have another question from the line of Kevin Hasbar from North Coast Research. Your line is open. You may ask your question.
spk02: Thanks. Good afternoon, everybody. Take care. Take care. Quick one on the tax rate. You're guiding to 25%. It looks like the last three years it's been basically right around 20%. So wondering why you expect such a big step up in the tax rate this year.
spk11: Yeah, Adam, or Kevin. First of all, it's discrete items, right? That's driving our tax rate down in a couple of years, different items coming through and tax planning things that have been done to drive the rate down. The reason it's up in 2020 A couple things going on. You've got to remember a lot of our international businesses where you might have a lower tax rate relate to the CIT businesses that are shrinking and essentially unprofitable now. So if you just think about most of the profits generated in the U.S., the U.S. has a 21% statutory federal rate. You've got 3% to 4% of state and local taxes. There's how you get to 25%, and that's kind of where most of our profit is right now. And we're always going to do our best to bring that down. But based on the visibility we have and what's going on in the world, we think 25 is a good starting point.
spk02: Okay, makes sense. And then you guys gave great color in terms of the expectations for sales growth in 2021. wondering if you could help not just a little bit on on margins to um either you know the type of incremental margins you're expecting out of out of the different segments or uh because it looks like you you should see nice uh your your sales growth in you know three of the four segments um there's some inflation though you kind of address that uh you know expecting kind of neutral ocean in ccm but you know whatever color uh if you could help us on the uh the margin front how to think of that and the business that'd be helpful
spk11: Yeah, Kevin, I don't think anything on the incremental. We talked about our incremental margins on volume upside for a long time. If price costs were guiding flat, incremental margins are going to be based on the volume. And then the same thing for CFT and CBF. We're looking at volume upside. And then CIT, you know, it's way down, even lower than it was on break-even. So we expect that to be a tough year for CIT. Okay.
spk02: All right. Thank you very much. Cool.
spk05: Thank you. We do have another question from the line of Garag Shumois from Maloub Capital. Your line is open. You may ask your question, please.
spk08: Hi, this is Jeff Stevenson. I'm for Garag. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one is just on what you're seeing from a backlog and bidding perspective in CCM and which markets are performing well or expected to perform well this year?
spk09: Yeah, I think we laid out some of the markets that we think are going to perform well when we laid out that idea of more suburbanization, if I could call it that. And I think we'll continue to see that. I think the Biden administration and their talks about infrastructure, and obviously we saw that from the previous administration, too, with the America First. I think there's some ideas that we'll see more infrastructure projects. So when we look to your other question, I'll turn that to Bob. on where it's coming from? I missed the other question. Sorry. Jeff, what was your first question for Bob again?
spk08: I'm sorry. It was just on backlogs and bidding. Oh, yeah.
spk09: All right. I'll just take it. I'm sorry about the confusion. On backlogs, you know, The quoting process is interesting, especially as we get into the first quarter. You know, we've always had, I think, a pretty strong, despite what we read in the newspapers, a pretty strong backlog there. It is held relatively consistent through the year, dipping a little bit up from our traditional levels, coming back. And so we come into the fourth quarter, you know, obviously the weather has an impact. But I would say quoting is good, but we also have a big backlog. And So on the re-roofing side, as we talk about 70% of our business there, I think it's ongoing and really doesn't slow down because obviously with the backlog there and the labor situations, you're just trying to get someone to give you a quote. On the new construction side, yeah, it has a little bit of a decline there. And I think people are cautious and they want to see what's going to happen with the COVID restrictions that have been placed on them, as well as things like rents and business prosperity and whether people will continue to expand. But for the most part, we're still seeing strong activity, tight labor markets across the construction base. And then when we see things like the weather happen or other things that defer that re-roofing, it just adds to the backlog and obviously makes it a good situation for us.
spk08: Great. That's great. And then just wanted an update on kind of balance sheet priorities now and then with the M&A pipeline, just kind of what you're seeing, how helpful is it, and any updates on other priorities? I know you mentioned some on the CCM side, but any update there would be great.
spk11: Yeah, balance sheet priorities are always, you know, first CapEx, and we have some big projects. coming in 2021 going up to over $150 million of projects we see coming in, most of those being in CCM. So we're pretty happy about that. Continue to fund our R&D. Increase our dividend, which we've been doing all along. We would expect to do that again this year for the 45th year. And then finally we want to have a nice balance between M&A and share repurchases, synergistic M&A being our priority out of those two. I think the pipeline clearly weakened with 2020 going on and COVID and the disruption we saw, but the pipeline is starting to grow again. We see opportunities out there. We're working every day to try to make sure we get some good synergistic opportunities. We looked at a lot in 2020, just didn't get a lot closed. So we're going to continue to be balanced between the two.
spk08: Thanks and best of luck moving forward. Thank you.
spk05: Thank you. We do have another question from the line of Joel Tiz from BMO. Your line is open.
spk12: Hey, guys. I was chuckling on your acquisition commentary. Can any of the deals get through the much tighter goalposts you guys have set up in terms of returns and and all that? Or is private equity still pushing the price a little too hard?
spk09: No, Joel, I think it depends on, you know, the segment. I mean, we're still seeing some good, you know, opportunities in construction materials. I think maybe even aerospace, if you find a deal, you might find some good deals there in the aerospace business. And we'd still be interested in expanding our content for planes. So we see this down market as an opportunity to perhaps pick up some assets there that ultimately would have some pretty high return profiles when we get them into the, you know, CIT business and let the team go to work there. I think when you look at things like med tech, obviously you have to be a little bit more discriminating, and we have to make sure they're good fits and we can leverage, you know, the infrastructure now we've put in place with Providian and that. But I think we could find deals to do, for sure.
spk12: And bigger versus smaller or the valuation, is there enough of the difference? Like maybe if you go a little bit bigger, can you find things that are a little cheaper or not necessarily?
spk09: Well, the last deal we saw that was close to our construction materials business had a pretty good multiple on it. So I don't know that size makes as big a difference as just what the asset is and what the prospects are for the business and the management team and what they've done. So I hate to give you an answer like that, but I think it just depends. I would say our preference would be for things that were a little bit bigger. You know, we think they bring – uh perhaps more market presence they integrate better we could pick up some management talent and things like that and and hopefully they have some innovative products and maybe some access to europe or things like that so there are some definite specific things we're looking for that we think we can leverage and we'd be willing to pay for okay my last one is just um
spk12: You know, you mentioned a bunch of new kind of, you know, niches you're going after and market extensions, and you're nice enough to give us the size of the architectural metal business. Can you give us any sort of a framework on how big some of these, you know, polyurethane and some of these other initiatives you have are? Or they're not really distinctive opportunities that you can break out. It's more just like additive to what you're already doing.
spk09: we can break out some of the products. I mean, we can, and maybe not on this call, but maybe it's better for a longer conversation around things like new products. We know that IntelliSpray, just from the equipment perspective, we think that globally might be a $150 million market. We know it's dominated for the most part by one player, and we think we offer an alternative there. So, you know, that's in one product line a tens of millions of dollar opportunity over a five to seven year time horizon. When we look at what IntelliSpray does for our polyurethane spray foam, you know, that business is more, the spray foam business is more in the hundreds of dollars market. And we think, you know, that Acela has a very strong market position. It can build on that, certainly with the combination with equipment can do better. Metals has opportunities that are, you know, architectural metals, insulated materials, Panels is an interesting one. There are some other architectural things that you can do in a building that are new from screens and things like that, and we think those are tens of millions of dollar opportunities. The three new locations we put in have significant market sizes attached to them. Again, definitely above $10 million, $20 million there each. But we can follow up with you. And maybe even on the next call, try to characterize some of those.
spk11: And Europe's a massive opportunity, you know, $10 billion with the roofing space.
spk12: And is that for your kind of roofing or is that the total roofing? That was my last little clarification question.
spk09: yeah no it's not all single it's not all single ply roofing membranes like we traditionally have here joel you know our product line actually in europe is is this restrix product which is growing at double digits and is a combination of a bitumen with a a epdm and it has a really unique function to it so that's the roofing space maybe our total available market and we look at things like sealants and adhesives we look at our fasteners we look at edge metals we look at metal roofing things like that so you know this whole move that ccm made over the last you know five to ten years to become you know more in the building envelope that's what that opportunity really represents it's a much bigger opportunity set than just a single ply roofing membrane solution like we would have had back in the 80s okay well thank you very much i don't want to take up all the time thank you you bet y'all thank you
spk05: Thank you, sir. We do have another question from the line of Mr. David McGregor from Longbow Research. Your line is open. You may ask your question.
spk07: Yes, good afternoon, everybody. Just to build on this most recent conversation around M&A, I guess what is your best guess on the level of acquisition activity you'll need to complete to achieve your Vision 2025 goals?
spk09: I think we contemplated in Vision 2025 somewhere $2 billion to $3 billion of acquisitions. I think that's good. You know, we put out the $8 billion of sales, and Bob and I, even at the time, thought we could do more than that from a growth perspective with acquisition. We still feel that way. There's more opportunities that continue to present themselves. I think the bigger focus for us to complete our Vision 2025 goal is really to hit that $15 VPS. And I'm not sure we need to do the same level of acquisitions to get to the $15 VPS. In fact, I think our preference would be to drive our internal organic acquisitions. projects and fund capital expenditures to get that. Because we know those, as we've seen with CCM over the years, when you do it internally and you do it organically and you build that infrastructure, your ROIC gets to those CCM levels of 30%. So I know that may be confused, but our primary goal in Vision 2025 was the $15 a share. And I think we could probably do less on maybe the lower end of our original acquisition framework to get there. And we're always focused on returns.
spk11: So, yeah, if we can get the returns on the acquisitions, we're going to do them. That makes sense.
spk07: And then I guess, Chris, I wanted to just circle back and ask you pretty much the same question I asked you last quarter, and that was the extent to which you thought business had been pushed out from 2020 to 21, and if there was any way to kind of size that. At the time, you thought it might be anywhere from the $200 million to $300 million, but I thought I'd circle back and just get maybe an update in terms of your thinking on just how much business got pushed forward and how that might contribute to growth in 2021.
spk09: Yeah, I think it's going to be a good – on the re-roofing, I think it's a good story. We still see tight labor markets. We still see a strong demand in the re-roofing. Obviously, the inventory build-out that didn't occur last year, we characterized that in that number I gave you. And now we have a year of heightened COVID restrictions. And I'm not even sure any of us really understand – how much was delayed because of the protocols in the second quarter and third quarter that a lot of our roofing contractors had to deal with. I know I've been out to some job sites where there were, you know, hand sanitizing stations and social distancing and, you know, masks, which a lot of them are wearing anyway. But, you know, you wonder how much that took out of the productivity of a roofer. And so, you know, I think you just have to, think it's got to be something north of 20% decrease in productivity. And so I think you can figure that that is added to the backlog. And again, as we said earlier too, there's just a limited supply of people that can do this and the demand is there. And so what doesn't get done, you can't defer it. You try to get by, but ultimately you have to do it. I know here in In Phoenix, the ability to get projects done or even quoted, I've never seen anything like it before. I mean, it's just really hard to get a contractor to even quote something. So I think it's, as we said, it depends on where you are in the region. It depends on, you know, obviously in the northern regions there's more weather and there's less work being done. So it's probably the best idea. Yeah.
spk07: Yeah, I guess it's kind of hard to put you in the spot for a number. So maybe the way to ask the question is just, are you feeling like that number might be a little bit bigger than what I asked you a quarter ago? Just directionally, how are you thinking about it?
spk09: Yeah, definitely. And I think it's just supported by we keep referring to some of the graphs we've shown on re-roofing. And we know the projects that are coming due. We referenced the buildings that are 10 to 20 years old. We saw that build out. We got that on the front end, as did our competitors, as we built up and expanded. And now these roofs are coming due and they need to be replaced. And so I would say anything that slows that down, whether it was COVID or it's weather, It adds to the backlog simply because of the constraint on labor. We just can't get through.
spk11: Yeah, a simple way to look at it, right, CCM sales were down 7% for the year in 2020, and the re-roofing demand, based on everything we know, should have grown 3%. Got it.
spk09: Thanks very much. Good luck. You bet. Thank you.
spk05: Thank you, sir. If there are no further questions from the line presenters, you may continue, please.
spk09: Thanks, Annie. This concludes our fourth quarter 2020 earnings call. I want to thank everybody for your participation. Great questions. We appreciate you taking the time. Stay healthy, and we look forward to speaking with you at our next earnings call.
spk05: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Thank you for participating.
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