Constellium SE

If you would like to register a question during today's events, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. And I'd like to hand over to Jason Hirscheiser, Director of Investor Relations. The floor is yours. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Elliot. I would like to welcome everyone to our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. On the call today, we have our Chief Executive Officer, John Mark Germain, and our Chief Financial Officer, Jack Guo. After the presentation, we will have a Q&A session. A copy of the slide presentation for today's call is available on our website at Constellium.com, and today's call is being recorded. Before we begin, I'd like to encourage everyone to visit the company's website and take a look at our recent filings. Today's call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include statements regarding the company's anticipated financial and operating performance, future events, and expectations, and may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results different materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the factors presented under the heading Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 20F. All information in this presentation is as of the date of the presentation. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. except as required by law. In addition, today's presentation includes information regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures attached in today's slide presentation, which supplement our IFRS disclosures. I would now like to hand the call over to John Martin.

Thank you, Jason, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for your interest in Constellium. Let's begin on slide five. I want to start by thanking each of our 12,000 employees for their commitment and relentless focus on safety, our number one priority. Our recordable case rate this year of 1.95 per million hours worked was slightly higher than last year, but I am pleased to report that we continue to deliver best in class safety performance. Our safety journey is never complete, and we all need to remain focused on this critical priority every day. We remain fully committed to achieving our safety target to reduce our recordable case rate to 1.5 by 2025. Now, let's turn to Site 6 and discuss the highlights from our fourth quarter performance. Shipments were 336,000 tons, down 9%. compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 due to lower shipments in each of our segments. Revenue of 1.6 billion euros decreased 13% compared to last year as improved price and mix was more than offset by lower shipments and lower metal prices. Remember, While our revenues are affected by changes in metal prices, we operate a pass-through business model which minimizes our exposure to metal price risk. Our value-added revenue, which reflects our sales excluding the cost of metal, was 681 million euros, down 2% compared to the same period last year. Our net income of 11 million euros in the quarter compares to net income of 30 million euros in the fourth quarter of last year. As you can see in the bridge on the top right, adjusted EBITDA was €171 million in the quarter, up 15% compared to last year and in line with our prior guidance. Also, we extended our track record of consistent free cash flow generation with €58 million in the quarter. The combination of pricing power, Improved mix and solid execution by our team drove strong results in the quarter, which Jack will discuss later in more detail. Now turn to slide seven for the full year highlights. For the full year, shipments were 1.5 million tons or down 6% compared to 2022. Revenue of 7.2 billion euros was down 11% as improved price and mix in each of our segments was more than offset by lower shipments and lower metal prices. A net income of €129 million compares to net income of €308 million in 2022. As a reminder, last year included €154 million related to the recognition of deferred tax assets that were previously unrecognized. Adjusted EBITDA was €713 million or up 6% compared to last year. This performance is a record for the company and a record for our A&T segment. We delivered our fifth consecutive year of positive free cash flow with a total of €170 million in 2023. We achieved adjusted return on invested capital of 11.3% in 2023, which is up 30 basis points compared to last year. As you can see on the bottom right of the slide, we finished 2023 with leverage of 2.3 times or down half a term from the end of 2022. Overall, I am very proud of our fourth quarter and full year 2023 performance. We demonstrated our pricing power again by delivering record adjusted EBITDA and strong free cash flow in 2023. I am also pleased to announce today that our board has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $300 million that expires in December 2026. We expect to begin the program in the first half of this year. Now that we are within our target leverage range, returning capital to our shareholders is an important part of our strategy moving forward, and we believe it will help drive shareholder value creation. We look forward to updating you on our progress each quarter. With that, I will now hand the call over to Jack for further details on our financial performance.

Thank you, Jean-Marc, and thank you everyone for joining the call today. Please turn now to slide nine. Value at a revenue was 681 million euros in the fourth quarter of 2023, down 2% compared to the same quarter last year. Looking at the fourth quarter, volume was a headwind of 44 million euros due to lower shipments in each of our segments. Price and mix was a tailwind of 73 million euros compared to the same period last year, while metal impacts were a headwind of 10 million euros. The balance of the change was largely due to the sale of our German extrusion business and unfavorable FX translation. For the full year of 2023, the VAR drivers were similar. There are two important takeaways from this slide. First, for the full year of 2023, we grew our value-added revenue by 7% compared to 2022. And second, we continue to have pricing power. Price and mix, and price specifically, continues to be the biggest increment of our year-over-year variance and helped us offset significant inflationary pressures. Now, turn to slide 10, and let's focus on PARP segment performance. Adjusted EBITDA of 82 million euros increased 16% compared to the fourth quarter last year. Volume was a headwind of 10 million euros with higher shipments in automotive, more than offset by lower shipments in packaging and specialty road products. Automotive shipments increased 2% in the quarter, despite some impact from the UAW strike early in the quarter. Packaging shipments decreased 8% in the quarter versus last year. Within packaging, 10 stock shipments were up slightly in the quarter versus last year, but more than offset by lower shipments of specialty packaging in Europe. Price-at-mix was a tailwind of €21 million, primarily on improved contract pricing, including inflation-related pass-throughs. Costs were a tailwind of €2 million as favorable metal costs, inflation, energy-related government grants, more than offset higher operating costs in the period. FX translation, which is non-cash, was a headwind of 2 million euros in the quarter. For the full year of 2023, TARP generated a adjusted EBITDA of 283 million euros, a decrease of 13% compared to 2022. The drivers of the full year performance were similar to those in the fourth quarter, with the exception of costs. which were a headwind of 158 million euros, including unfavorable metal costs, operating challenges at our Muscle Shoals facility, and significant inflationary pressures faced earlier in the year. Now, turn to slide 11, and let's focus on the ANT sector. Adjusted EBITDA of 76 million euros increased 36% compared to the fourth quarter last year. Volume was a headwind of 13 million euros as higher aerospace shipments were more than offset by lower TID shipments in the quarter. Aerospace shipments were up around 10% versus last year as the recovery in aerospace markets continues. Shipments in TID were down 19% versus last year, reflecting a slowdown in most industrial markets. Price and mix was a tailwind of 48 million euros on improved contract pricing, including inflation-related past dues, and a stronger mix with more aerospace. Costs were headwind 17 million euros, primarily as a result of higher operating costs. FX and other was a tailwind of 2 million euros in the quarter. For the full year 2023, A&P generated record adjusted EBITDA of 324 million euros, an increase of 50% compared to 2022. The drivers of the full-year performance were similar to those in the fourth quarter. Now, turn to slide 12, and let's focus on the AS&I segment. Adjusted EBITDA of 25 million euros decreased 22% compared to the fourth quarter last year. Volume was a 6 million euro headwind as a result of lower shipments in industry. Automotive shipments were stable in the quarter versus last year, despite some impact from the UAW strike early in the quarter, the timing impact between certain program switches, and the sale of our German Exclusion business. Industry shipments were down 33% in the quarter versus last year as a result of weaker market conditions in Europe and the sale of our German Exclusion business. Price and mix. was a 3 million euro tailwind, primarily due to improved contract pricing, including inflation-related pass-throughs. Costs were a headwind of 1 million euros, a lower operating cost, more than offset by inflation. SX and other was a headwind of 2 million euros in a quarter. For the full year of 2023, AS&I generated a just EBITDA of 133 million euros. a decrease of 11% compared to 2022. The drivers of the full year performance were similar to those in the fourth quarter. It is not on the slide here, but I wanted to conclude with some quick comments on holdings and corporate. For the full year of 2023, our holdings and corporate expense was 27 million euros. We currently expect holdings and corporate expense to run at approximately 40 million euros in 2024, with the increase primarily driven by additional IT spending with the upgrade of our ERP system. Now, turn to slide 13, where I want to give an update on the current inflationary environment we're facing and our focus on pricing and cost control to offset these pressures. Throughout most of 2023, we were faced with broad-based and significant inflationary pressures, although the pressure began to increase in some categories in the fourth quarter. As you know, we operate a pass-through business model, so we're not materially exposed to changes in the market price of aluminum, our largest cost input. Labor and other non-metal costs continue to be higher. For energy, our 2024 energy costs are largely secured and at moderately more favorable levels compared to 2023, although energy prices remain well above historical averages. Given these cost pressures, We continue to work across a number of fronts to mitigate their impact on our results. We have demonstrated strong cost performance in the past years, and we will continue our relentless focus. As we previously noted, many of our existing contracts have inflationary protection mechanisms, and where they do not, we're working with our customers to include them. As you have seen our results, we have demonstrated very good progress across all of our end markets. As you can see in the bridge on the right, we were very successful again in 2023 with price and mix, the largest increment in price in offsetting inflationary cost pressures and demand headwinds. We expect inflationary pressures in some categories to continue in 2024, but at more moderated levels. We're confident in our ability to offset a substantial portion of the impact with an improved top line this year, and our relentless focus on cost control. Now let's turn to slide 14 and discuss our free cash flow. We generated strong free cash flow of 170 million euros in 2023, including 58 million euros in the fourth quarter. As you can see on the bottom left of the slide, we have continued to deliver our commitment to generate consistent, strong free cash flow. Since the beginning of 2019, we have generated 820 million euros of free cash flow. Looking at 2024, we expect to generate free cash flow in excess of 130 million euros for the full year, though we expect this to be negative in the first quarter and weighted more towards the second half of the year, similar to last year given the seasonality in our business. We expect CapEx to be around 370 million euros this year which includes higher spending on return seeking projects, such as our recycling and casting center in Debrazac. The facility is expected to start up on time and on budget in the fourth quarter of this year. We expect cash interest of approximately 125 million euros, which includes the impact from higher interest rates. We expect cash taxes of approximately 55 million euros. Lastly, we expect working capital and other to be a modest use of cash for the full year. With the expected free cash flow generation of over 130 million euros, we intend to use a large portion of the free cash flow to begin repurchasing shares, starting in the first half of the year, as Jean-Marc mentioned. We have the ability to begin limited share repurchases in the near term without shareholder approval. To fully execute the size of the program we announced today, we will rely on shareholder approval each year at our annual general meeting, including the one in the second quarter this year. Now let's turn to slide 15 and discuss our balance sheet and liquidity position. At the end of the fourth quarter, our net debt of 1.7 billion euros was down over 220 million euros compared to the end of 2022. Our leverage reached a multi-year low of 2.3 times at the end of 2023. We're down 0.5 times versus the end of 2022 and within our target leverage range. We remain committed to maintaining our target leverage range of 1.5 to 2.5 times. As you can see in our debt summary, we have no bond maturities until 2026, and our liquidity remains strong at 373 million euros as of the end of 2023. We're extremely proud of the progress we have made on our capital structure and of the financial flexibility we've built, including the ability to begin returning capital to our shareholders. Before turning the call back to John Mark, I wanted to spend a minute on slide 16 to discuss changes to the presentation of certain non-GAAP financial measures. The changes are based on discussions we had with the staff of the SEC and specifically related to the adjustment for metal price lag, which is non-cash in certain non-GAAP financial measures. The changes will be reflected when we report our first quarter 2024 results. For the first change, moving forward, we will no longer be reporting our value added revenue. For the second change, we will be revising our definition of adjusted EBITDA to no longer exclude the non-cash impact of metal price lag, which the staff considers to be inconsistent with the guidance in question 100.04 of the compliance and disclosure interpretations on non-GAAP financial measures. While the going forward disclosure of consolidated adjusted EBITDA will no longer remove metal price lag, we will continue to exclude metal price lag from our segment adjusted EBITDA, which we use for evaluating the performance of our operating segments. And as a reminder, consolidated adjusted EBITDA following the revision less metal price lag is equal to consolidated adjusted EBITDA prior to the revision. We will continue to provide investors and other stakeholders with all the information necessary to understand the non-cash impact of metal price lag on our reported results each quarter. For comparability, we have provided tables on slides 17 and 18 to show a reconciliation of prior periods adjusted EBITDA under the old definition to the new definition. Moving to adjusted EBITDA guidance. the company will continue to provide guidance excluding metal price lag. In addition, leverage as defined by the company will continue to be calculated as net debt divided by adjusted EBITDA excluding metal price lag. I hope that's all clear. With that, I would now like to hand the call back to Jean-Marc.

Thank you, Jack. Let's turn to slide 20 and discuss our current end markets outlook. The majority of our portfolio today is serving end markets currently benefiting from durable, sustainability-driven, secular growth, in which aluminum, a light and infinitely recyclable material, plays a critical role. Turning first to packaging, can stock inventory adjustments appear largely behind us in both North America and Europe. Can stock demand has stabilized in recent quarters, though demand is still relatively low given the current inflationary environment, a lack of promotional activity, and following a multi-year period of rapid growth during COVID. Even in today's environment, aluminum cans continue to outperform and win share against other substrates like plastics and glass. The long-term outlook for this end market continues to be favorable, as evidenced by the growing consumer preference for the sustainable aluminum beverage cans, capacity growth plans from canmakers in both regions, and the greenfield investments ongoing here in North America. We're expecting growth to return in canned stock in 2024, and longer term, we continue to expect packaging markets to grow low to mid single digits in both North America and Europe. We'll participate in this growth in both regions, as announced at our Analyst Day two years ago. I am pleased to report that the recycling and casting center we are building at our Neufquizak facility is well underway, and both on time and on budget, as Jack mentioned. At Mussel Shoals, operational performance continued to improve during the fourth quarter. Last month, though, the extreme cold weather and the snow impacted operations and shipments for a full week. The plant is in the process of ramping back up now though this will have an impact on our first quarter results. Turning now to automotive. Auto OEM sales and production numbers globally have increased the last couple of years, but remain below pre-COVID levels. Demand decelerated in the second half of 2023, although it remains healthy. Our automotive business was up slightly in the first quarter, despite some impact early in the quarter from the UAW strike in North America. Consumer demand for luxury cars, light trucks, and SUVs remains steady. Vehicle electrification and sustainability trends will continue to drive the demand for light weighting and use of aluminum products in the long term. As a result, we remain very positive on this market. Let's turn now to aerospace. The recovery in aerospace continued in the quarter. though demand remains below pre-COVID levels. Major aero OEMs remain focused on increasing build rates for both narrow and wide-body aircraft. We remain confident that the long-term fundamentals driving aerospace demand remain intact, including growing passenger traffic and greater demand for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft. Demand remains strong in the business and regional jet markets, and the defense and space markets. In addition, we continue to experience strong demand for our airware family of products. As the chart on the left side of the page highlights, these three core end markets represented 79% of our revenue in 2023. Turning lastly to other specialties, we expect weakness to continue in most industrial markets, and in general, these markets are dependent upon the health of the industrial economies in each region. In TID rolled products and industry exclusions, demand is generally weak today. We do expect some recovery in these markets as we move through the year. In summary, we like the fundamentals in each of the markets we serve and strongly believe that diversification of our end markets is an asset for the company. Let's turn now to slide 21, where we detail our key messages and financial guidance. Our team achieved very strong performance in 2023, including record adjusted EBITDA of 713 million euros and strong free cash flow of 170 million euros. Importantly, we also further deleveraged our balance sheet to a multi-year low of 2.3 times, and we are now within our target leverage range. I'm very proud of our performance, especially in this challenging environment. As we look ahead, While uncertainties persist on the macroeconomic and geopolitical fronts, we are optimistic about our prospects for 2024 and beyond. Based on our current outlook for 2024, we are targeting adjusted EBITDA, excluding the non-cash impact of metal price lag, as Jack commented, in the range of 740 million to 770 million euros and free cash flow in excess of 130 million euros. We do not give quarterly guidance, as you know, but given the softness in some of our end markets to start the year, and as a result of the extreme cold weather impact on our operations at Muscle Shoals in January, we do expect adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2024 to be weaker than the same period last year. Also, we are planning for free cash flow to be negative in the first quarter, like last year, due to normal seasonality. These expectations are, of course, included in our full-year guidance that I just provided. I also want to reiterate our long-term guidance of adjusted EBITDA, excluding the non-cash impact of metal price lag, in excess of 800 million euros in 2025, and our commitment to maintain our target leverage range of 1.5 to 2.5. To conclude, let me say again that I am very proud of our results and very excited about our future. who are extremely well-positioned for long-term success and who remain focused on shareholder value creation, as demonstrated by our recently announced share repurchase program. With that, Elliot will now open the call for Q&A questions.

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw a question, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Just first on the general meeting that is going to be held in second quarter, is that in May?

Yes, that's at the beginning of May.

Until then, on the share buybacks, you can only, I guess, due to as much as the offset dilution and after the general meeting, you could be more aggressive. Is that fair?

Generally fair, yes.

And then maybe looking to 25, you reaffirmed the over 800 million EBITDA target. Can you talk a bit about what will bridge you between 24 and 25? Sure, Katia.

So number one, and it's a, so if you take the midpoint of our guidance and you go to 2025 in excess of 800, there's a 50 million increase by, by and large, minimum increase that we are expecting. A large portion of it, a very large portion of it is just a startup of our recycling center. that is starting, as Jack was saying, we're on time, on budget, starting somewhere beginning of October. So it will ramp up quite rapidly, and that is going to create a lot of EBITDA going into 2025. The second aspect is we have good visibility on our aerospace demand. In 2024, the challenge for us is to be able to produce everything that is asked of us, And in 2025, there is more coming. We know that. You will also have noted that we are still something like, you know, 15, 20 percent below pre-COVID levels at the moment in 23. So we've got a healthy ramp up that continues. We will be spending a bit of money to debunk some of our operations to produce more aerospace products. So that's going to help us as well. And then finally, as you know, we've experienced operating challenges in mussel shoals in last year. We made quite a few improvements. We believe we still have some improvements we can make, and that will more than exceed the total $50 million that we need to deliver upon to bridge from 24 to 25. Thank you.

I'll hop back in.

And as you can see, I mean, all of these we've got visibility upon, and they are fully within our control. So we're not betting on any wonderful days and a rosy future in the global economy in 2025.

We now turn to Corinne Blanchard with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, Jean-Marc and team. Hi, Corinne. Hey, could you maybe talk about how much dormant EVDAPOR you're sitting on. Thinking about the industrial extrusion net, maybe once it comes back, are we talking maybe 25, 26? So trying to see what the potential that could be added to the number of them.

Okay, so you broke up at the beginning of your question, but I think you're asking about how much of a drag down is the specialties in general in 2023?

And when we, sorry.

Well, I think, yeah, yes, we can. Yes. So, I think if you look at the historical volumes that we are producing in specialty segments, be it in TID or in exclusions, You've got to make an assumption as to what do you think is a good run rate, kind of mid-cycle and well below mid-cycle at the moment. And if you multiply that by a margin that's less than the average margin in this segment, because in both ASNI and in ANT, respectively, the extrusions have a lower margin than the average of ASNI. The TID has a lower margin than the average of ANT. times the volume that you think is the gap between where we are today and where mid-cycle is, that gives you an idea of what is available to us. Knowing that, because we have sold the German assets, we have less, we've got some volumes that we will not make anymore in the future because of the sale of the German assets. So anyway, it would be, bottom line, it would be a a nice contribution, it is not needed to get to our 2025 guidance, really.

Okay, thank you. And then for the second question, for the A&T business, can you just talk about how we should think about the margin going forward? Because it has been actually quite strong in 2023, and I think above what people were thinking it should be. Should we base 24 and 25 looking back at 23, or should we still consider more like the $1,000 euro per ton guidance that you provided a year ago?

Yeah, the $1,000 or 1,000 euro per ton is more a mid-cycle number, right, which factors in, you know, aerospace not being as buoyant as it is today and TID being a little bit stronger, which has a lower margin, right, than ANTs. At the moment, in the current conditions, it's fair to say that you should expect us to be closer to the 2023 actuals than at the midpoint yet. I mean, as I commented, we have good visibility on aerospace. We believe the market's going to be very strong in 2024, very strong in 2025, barring any exceptional crisis that It can always happen. But, you know, in the current visibility we have, we believe we have a good shot at being towards the higher end of that margin. Jack, do you want to add anything?

Yeah, I mean, the only thing I would add there, Corinne, is, you know, as the TID business expects to recover a little bit this year, they're eating to the margin a little bit relative to the margin from last year. So just a point to consider.

Okay, thank you.

Our next question comes from Bill Peterson with JP Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking our questions. I guess if we think about the term, you mentioned some of the end markets remain soft, but you also commented about the weather conditions for Muscle Shoals. I guess for the latter, can you quantify the impact in terms of maybe quarter on quarter, year on year compares? I mean, I guess if it was down for a week, that would kind of apply sort of a high single-digit type of shipment loss, but I'm not sure that's the right way to think about it. And then just really trying to understand just the near-term demand drivers impacting the first quarter, if you can kind of help us understand by end market what you're seeing and maybe even including commenting by region.

Yeah. So, Bill, on the impact, I mean, I think it will all depend on the mussel shoals situation in Q1. It will all depend on how much ground we can make up and all that so the quarter is not over. But I think in terms of misshipments, you're absolutely right. The plant is at a standstill for a week, and it's supposed to be a week where you produce easily in the 10-kT range. The market conditions we're seeing right now. So we're seeing CAN strong in North America, a little bit weak still in Europe, but better than it has been. We're seeing the aerospace market pretty good in Q1. And in terms of auto, there's a divergence between North America and Europe. Europe is slow. and North America is extremely strong to the point that we are challenged to make everything we need to make in North America. And finally, on specialties, we don't see yet a rebound, but we're seeing a few green shoots here and there. Some customers are being a little bit more optimistic, but that's why we think the market may turn this year, but we are not seeing really tangible, massive evidence of that just yet.

Okay, thanks for that. Yeah, no, that's very helpful. Maybe in terms of capital allocation, you know, it's great to see the net leverage where it is and, of course, the announced buyback and realizing you have, you know, the May meeting to define how that can look further. But I guess holistically, would you think of this, would you want to put this in a way to be sort of like a payout ratio, a percentage of free cash flow, or opportunistic if you were to, you know, think about this in the second half of the year and beyond?

Yeah, so, Bill, I think the way we look at the capital allocation is fundamentally we want a balanced capital allocation. We are committed to this $300 million share repurchase program through the end of 2026. How exactly it unfolds will be, you know... still to be determined. But as I said, we will update you on a quarterly basis. We look at it from the viewpoint of we want to have good returns on every capital allocation we make. We want it to be balanced so that there's a balance between returning money to shareholders, continuing to invest in the business, building the financial flexibility. And over time, If you, which I'm sure you do, you run the numbers, you will see that the company, even though at the $300 million free cash flow, sorry, share repurchase buyback, the company continues to deliver. And we certainly don't want to, we want to stay within our 1.5 to 2.5 range. So as we do that, we're building flexibility. And over time, we did that shareholder return program will certainly continue. Jack, anything you want to add?

Yeah, I mean, Bill, the only thing I would add is, you know, I don't, we don't want to be too prescriptive. We want to, you know, in terms of like a ratio per se, I think we want to maintain some flexibility. It's the first time we are executing a shared buy-buy program. We'll, from an execution perspective, we'll be quite hands-off and leverage, you know, the 10B5 program.

Okay. If I could think of one more. So I guess if you think about the broader scrap market in the US and Europe, I guess we're wondering, do you think there's sufficient supply to meet the growing demand needs, especially with two new rolling mills ramping in the US?

Yes, definitely. So I think the rolling mills are ramping up later in the decade, as you know. The market continues to grow. there is more aluminum being used and therefore more aluminum being recycled naturally. And then with the focus on more of a circular economy, one should expect that also the recycle rate is going to improve. So yes, we believe there is an ample supply of scrap. And by the way, both Europe and North America are today exporting a significant amount of scrap to Asia, which is a bit of a waste. And if we can find a more economical way to recycle the scrap domestically, then obviously that's addressing a problem and finding a profitable solution for a problem that exists today, which is this leakage of scrap to faraway countries. So, yes, I think we're in very good shape for this decade at least.

Okay, thanks for the insights, and I'll pass on. Congrats on the execution.

Thank you.

We now turn to Kurt Woodworth with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Yeah, thank you. Good morning, John. John Mark. Question on PARP. So if we look at EBITDA per ton this quarter at 345, that's the highest we've seen in many years despite volumes being the lowest that you've had all year. So can you kind of comment on, I guess, margin expectation for that business going forward, how you see net price into 24?

Yeah, Kurt, maybe I'll take this one. So I think, I mean, first of all, you know, tremendous achievement in the fourth quarter, as you noted, and with a margin profile that's over 300 per ton. I would say, you know, when we look at 2024, it will continue to be a year transition in terms of you know, costs. Yes, inflation has moderated, has eased, but the absolute cost level remains substantial in terms of labor energy. You know, we do have a slower start in some of the end markets that John Mark talked about. They have the weather event at Muscle Shoals that's impacting first quarter results. And, you know, the aluminum, market aluminum price remains low. which obviously impacts our square profit in a business unit. So I think 24 expected to be a year-end transition, probably some for modeling perspective similar to 2023, but we're confident in getting the larger profile to over 300 euro per ton over time.

Okay. And then in terms of the aerospace, can you talk a little bit about volume expectations for this year in terms of how your nominations have come in. And then you noted airwear continues to be strong. So should we expect that your mix profile will be similar or better in 24 relative to 23?

Yes, it will continue to be favorable. You know, we had favorable in micro mix within aerospace, within ANT and within aerospace portfolio. So, you know, continue to expect that going forward. into 2024. And then in terms of volume, we do expect volume to be higher in 2024 versus 2023.

But not yet at pre-COVID levels.

Okay. And then maybe just lastly, in terms of the guidance, what is the expectation for the net price realization this year?

What do you mean by net price realization, Kurt?

Sorry. Do you expect net price to be favorable, so your price and mix will offset inflationary pressures in the business? If so, to what extent?

Oh, I see. Well, I don't think we want to go into that level of detail, Kurt. I think, you know, we are Very comfortable with our guidance of 740 to 770. There's many moving parts to it. So clearly, with less inflation, there will be less of a price mixed benefit with less cost pressure. Exactly how it pans out is a bit too early to tell.

All right. Thanks very much.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Josh Sullivan with the Benchmark Company. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Good morning.

Morning, Josh.

Within the aerospace segment, you mentioned good visibility, but just given the potential moving production timelines from one of the OEMs here, are there any noticeable changes in either min-maxes or contract prices in different geographies at this point?

Not really, Josh. I mean, as you know, we are more exposed to Airbus than we are to Boeing. That was the case before the 737 MAX issues and all the issues that Boeing has had to deal with. So we are even less exposed to Boeing today than we were at the time. It continues to be an important, a very important customer of ours. In the grand scheme of things, because we're on so many platforms with so many OEMs, if one aircraft doesn't sell, another one sells, and we are also in that aircraft. So all in all, we are not seeing an impact for us, and the demand continues to be very strong. Our pricing is essentially set through our multi-year contracts, so we've got very good visibility.

And then maybe just on airwear, you know, as wide-body production increases, you know, where are you on airwear capacity? You know, are you positioned with enough, you know, to meet end-of-decade kind of A350, A220 production plans here?

So we are starting to be quite tight on capacity, and we will be looking at ways to expand our capacity in that segment.

And then just one more, just Given some delays in some of these proposed new packaging capacity projects throughout the industry, have you seen any customer response for Constellium engagement, I guess, just looking at your capacity as more stable?

Yeah, so, Josh, yes, there's a little bit of a shift to the right in terms of how the market is developing. What it means for us is some of the investments we are planning to make, we will push them out. to a later in time which means that you should expect our capex to be in 25 and onwards a little bit lower than what we communicated at the time of the investor day two years ago and that's just reflecting you know the realities of the market and and back to the capital allocation discussion, making sure that we put our dollars to the best return possible. Okay.

Thank you for the time.

Sure. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad now. We now turn to Sean Wondrak with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Hey, guys, thanks for taking my questions today.

I think just the first one, just housekeeping here. The UAW strike, was that any impact in Q4? I don't think so, but just wanted to check there.

Yeah, so it did have a bit of an impact, Sean, but in the few million dollars of EBITDA, yeah, in Q4. Okay, great. And what do you think is really driving... Sorry, Sean. And essentially in ASNI. Gotcha. Okay.

Okay. And then I thought it was interesting, your comment about how in autos, you know, you're seeing strength in the U.S. and weakness in Europe. I was wondering if you could kind of peel away at that comment a little bit more for us, please.

Yeah, I think the... In Europe, we see the European market being a little bit weaker, and also the German OEMs having more difficulty selling their cars overseas. So that's, I think, what is driving the weakness in Europe at the moment.

Gotcha. Okay. And obviously, you've done a great job at the capital structure. It's nice to see you within the new leverage target range. You were clear about share repurchases on the call. Just my question is, in terms of M&A, you have these three segments up and running really well now. Could there be a consideration if you saw the right deal to maybe add another leg to the school here or to maybe tack on something to one of your existing segments? I'm just kind of curious how you're thinking about that at this point.

Yeah, it's a really good question. So I think, and that sort of goes back to keeping a balanced capital allocation approach and going back to the intention of returning a large portion of our free cash flow towards a share repurchase, but while maintaining some flexibility and maintaining flexibility both financially and potentially strategically. I think our approach when it comes to M&A, as you know, is quite conservative. We want to make sure we do the right deals for our shareholders. So it will be highly selective. So we would consider tucking acquisition opportunities at great value.

Right. That makes a lot of sense. And then I guess just one last one. Are there further opportunities to marry additional recycling facilities with your manufacturing facilities? And just when you think about that, how important is it to be early to that game or first mover as we think about this in time?

Yeah, so Sean, there is definitely an opportunity for us to increase our recycling content, our recycling operations, the mix of metal that comes in that is scrap as opposed to primary. And we will continue to make investments in that domain. And these investments will be organic and could be also M&A. But it is clearly a priority of ours to continue to increase our recycling footprint and capacity.

Got it. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Appreciate it. Thank you, Sean.

This concludes our Q&A. I'll now hand back to Jean-Marc Germain, CEO of Constellium, for final remarks.

Well, thank you very much. We are very proud with our progress. As you can see, these demonstrates, our performance demonstrates, that we are really focused on value in the context of quite a few markets that are down. Our profitability continues to improve, and we are very confident in the future, as evidenced by the announcement of our share purchase share repurchase program. I look forward to updating you on our progress in April. Thank you very much, everybody. Have a good day.

Ladies and gentlemen, today's call is now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.