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spk06: Director, Investor Relations for Concelium to begin. Please go ahead.
spk01: Thank you, Angela. I would like to welcome everyone to our second quarter 2024 earnings call. On the call today, we have our Chief Executive Officer, Jean-Marc Germain, and our Chief Financial Officer, Jack Guo. After the presentation, we will have a Q&A session. A copy of the slide presentation for today's call is available on our website at Concelium.com, and today's call is being recorded. Before we begin, I'd like to encourage everyone to visit the company's website and take a look at our recent filings. Today's call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include statements regarding the company's anticipated financial and operating performance, future events, and expectations, and may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the factors presented under the heading Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 20F. All information in this presentation is as of the date of the presentation. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law. In addition, today's presentation includes information regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures attached in today's slide presentation, which supplement our IFRS disclosures. Before turning the call over to John Mark, I wanted to remind everyone that beginning last quarter, we revised the definition of adjusted EBITDA at the consolidated level, based on prior discussions with the SEC. The new definition will no longer exclude the non-cash impact of metal price lag. We will continue to provide investors and other stakeholders with the non-cash metal price lag impact as it is necessary to get a true assessment of the economic performance of the business. Our segment adjusted EBITDA will continue to exclude the impact and any guidance we provide for adjusted EBITDA will also exclude the impact. And with that, I would now like to hand the call over to John Mark.
spk08: Thank you, Jason. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for your interest in Constellium. Let's begin on slide five and discuss the highlights from our second quarter results. I would like to start with safety, our number one priority. Our recordable case rate was lower in the second quarter, leading to a rate of 2.1 per million hours worked for the first half of the year. While this safety performance puts us among the best in manufacturing, the rate is higher than where we want it to be, and we have done better in the past. This is a humbling reminder that while we always strive to deliver best-in-class safety performance, we all need to constantly maintain our focus on safety to achieve the ambitious target we have set, which is a never-ending task for our company and one we take very seriously. Turning to our financial results, shipments were 378,000 tons, down 5% compared to the second quarter of 2023, mainly due to lower shipments in bark and AS&I. The lower shipments in AS&I were largely a result of the German extrusion business we sold last year. Revenue of 1.8 billion euros decreased 8% compared to last year, primarily due to lower shipments and unfavorable price and mix, partially offset by higher metal prices. Remember, While our revenues are affected by changes in metal prices, we operate a pass-through business model which minimizes our exposure to metal price risk. Our net income of 71 million euros in the quarter compares to net income of 32 million euros in the second quarter last year. Adjusted EBITDA was 214 million euros in the quarter, though this includes a positive non-cash impact from metal price lag of 42 million euros. If you were to exclude this impact of metal price lag, which you should, as Jason mentioned earlier, the real economic performance of the business reflects a adjusted EBITDA of 172 million euros in the quarter compared to the record 209 million euros we achieved last year. As we mentioned in April, our second quarter results this year reflect the impact of two large planned maintenance outages during the quarter. In addition, we saw slowing in certain end markets as we moved through the second quarter, which we expect to persist in the second half of the year. Looking across our end markets, aerospace demand remained strong in the quarter and packaging demand continued to improve. Automotive demand remained healthy in North America, though demand continued to weaken in Europe. Demand in most industrial and other specialty markets remained weak in both regions during the quarter. Jack will go through our detailed segment performance in a few moments. Moving now to free cash flow. Our free cash flow in the quarter was strong at 75 million euros. I am pleased to report that we increased our share buyback activities in the quarter. During the quarter, we repurchased nearly 1.6 million shares for around 33 million US dollars. Our leverage at the end of the second quarter was 2.5 times and remains within our target leverage range. While it did not have a significant impact on our second quarter results, in late June, we experienced an unprecedented flooding event at our operations in the Valais region of Switzerland. I wanted to take a moment to thank our entire team in the Valais for their incredible resolve and courage during this very difficult time. I will give you a full update on the current situation in Valais a little later on. With that, I will now hand the call over to Jack for further details on our financial performance. Jack?
spk07: Thank you, Jean-Marc, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. Please turn now to slide 7, and let's focus on PARP segment performance. In the second quarter of 2024, PARP generated segment adjusted EBITDA of 64 million euros, which was down 19% compared to the second quarter last year. Volume was a headwind of 5 million euros with lower shipments in packaging and automotive. Packaging shipments decreased 4% in the quarter versus last year, though demand in packaging continues to improve. Automotive shipments decreased 3% in the quarter with stable demand in North America more than offset by softness in Europe. Price and mix was a headwind of 3 million euros, mainly as a result of weaker mix in the quarter. Costs were a headwind of 8 million euros as a result of unfavorable metal costs. PARP results in the second quarter were also impacted by a large planned maintenance outage at our Muscle Shoals facility that Jean-Marc mentioned, as well as continued operating challenges at that facility during the quarter. Now let's turn to slide A and let's focus on the A&T segment. Adjusted EBITDA of 83 million euros decreased 14% compared to the record second quarter last year. Shipments in A&T were stable versus the same quarter last year. Aerospace demand remained strong during the quarter while weakness persisted in TID. Price and mix was a headwind of 23 million euros mainly as a result of weaker aerospace mix due to the planned maintenance outage at Ravenswood, as previously discussed. Costs were a tailwind of 10 million euros, primarily as a result of lower operating costs. Now turn to slide nine. Let's focus on the AS&I segment. Adjusted EBITDA of 32 million euros decreased 19% compared to the second quarter last year. Volume was a 6 million euro headwind as a result of lower shipments in automotive and industry extruded products. Automotive shipments were down 13% in the quarter versus last year as a result of softness in Europe and the timing impact between certain program switches. Industry shipments were down 20% in the quarter versus last year, primarily as a result of the sale of our German extrusion business. Price and mix was a 7 million euro headwind, primarily due to a softer pricing environment in industry and weaker mix in the quarter. Cost for a tailwind of 8 million euros, a lower operating cost. Effects and other was a headwind of 2 million euros in the quarter. It is not on the slide here, but I wanted to summarize the current costing environment we're facing. As you know, we operate a pass-through business model, so we're not materially exposed to changes in the market price of aluminum, our largest cost input. Throughout 2022 and most of 2023, we were faced with broad-based and significant inflationary pressures. Although the pressure began to ease in some categories in the fourth quarter last year, and have continued to ease as we move through this year. Labor and other non-metal costs continue to be higher this year. As for energy, our 2024 costs are secured at moderately more favorable levels compared to 2023, although energy prices remain well above historical averages. We remain confident in our ability to control costs in any environment with top-line actions and our relentless focus on cost control as we have demonstrated in the past. Now let's turn to slide 10 and discuss our free cash flow. We generated 75 million euros of free cash flow in the second quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to 67 million euros. The year-over-year increase in the first half is a result of less cash used for working capital and lower cash interest partially offset by lower segment adjusted EBITDA, higher cash taxes, and higher capital expenditures. Looking at the full year in 2024, as we noted last quarter, we expect CapEx to be around 370 million euros this year, which includes higher spending on return seeking projects, such as our recycling and casting center in the Brazac. The facility is expected to start up on time and on budget around the end of this quarter. We expect cash interest of approximately 125 million euros, which includes the impact from higher interest rates. We expect cash taxes of approximately 55 million euros, and we expect working capital and other to be a modest use of cash for the full year. For 2024, we now expect to generate free cash flow of over 100 million euros, excluding the impact of flood in Valais. We plan to continue executing our share repurchase program, and we intend to use a large portion of the free cash flow this year for the program. As Jean-Marc mentioned previously, we increased our share buyback activities in the quarter. During the quarter, We repurchased nearly 1.6 million shares for around 33 million US dollars, bringing our year to date total to roughly 1.9 million shares for just over 39 million US dollars. Now let's turn to slide 11 and discuss our balance sheet and liquidity position. At the end of the second quarter, our net debt of 1.7 billion euros increased slightly compared to the end of 2023. The change was driven primarily by our strong free cash flow of 67 million euros in the first half of this year, slightly more than offset by 37 million euros of shared buybacks and an unfavorable non-cash FX translation impact of 32 million euros with the strengthening of the US dollar. Our leverage was 2.5 times at the end of the quarter We're down 0.2 times versus the end of the second quarter of 2023 and within our target leverage range. We remain committed to maintaining our target leverage range of 1.5 to 2.5 times. As you can see in our debt summary, we have no bond maturities until 2026. Our liquidity remains strong at 869 million euros as of the end of the second quarter, which is the highest level in two years. We're extremely proud of the progress we have made on our capital structure and of the financial flexibility we're building, including the ability to continue returning capital to our shareholders. With that, I'll now hand the call back to Jean-Marc. Thank you, Jack.
spk08: Let's turn to slide 13 and discuss our current end-market outlook. The majority of our portfolio today is serving end markets currently benefiting from durable, sustainability-driven secular, in which aluminum, a light and infinitely recyclable material, plays a critical role. Turning first to the aerospace market, the post-COVID recovery in aerospace continues and demand in this market remains strong. Commercial aircraft backlogs are robust today and we remain confident that the long-term fundamentals driving aerospace demand remain intact, including growing passenger traffic and greater demand for new, more fuel-efficient aircrafts. Major aero OEMs remain focused on increasing build rates for both narrow and wide-body aircraft, though supply chain challenges are again slowing deliveries of completed aircraft for some OEMs. Demand also remains strong in the business and regional jet markets and the defense and space markets. In addition, we continue to experience strong demand for our airware family of products. Turning now to automotive. Automotive OEM production of light vehicles in North America is near pre-COVID levels, while production in Europe remains well below pre-COVID levels. Demand remains stable in North America today, while demand has further weakened in Europe, which we now no longer expect to recover in the second half of this year. Demand for EVs is continuing to grow, albeit at a slower pace than expected in the past. Consumer demand for luxury cars like trucks and SUVs remain steady in North America, though demand for luxury vehicles in Europe has softened. In the long term, vehicle electrification and sustainability trends will continue to drive the demand for lightweighting and use of aluminum products. As a result, we remain positive on this market over the longer term in both regions, despite the weakness we are seeing in Europe today. Let's turn now to packaging. Inventory adjustments in can stock appear behind us, and demand continues to improve in both North America and Europe, though promotional activity at the retail level remains below historical levels. The long-term outlook for this end market continues to be favorable, as evidenced by the growing consumer preference for the sustainable aluminum beverage can, capacity growth plans from can makers in both regions, and the greenfield investments ongoing here in North America. We are expecting growth in CanStock in 2024, including some improvement in the second half compared to the first half. Longer term, we continue to expect packaging markets to grow low to mid single digits in both North America and Europe. As Jack mentioned, the recycling and casting center we are building at our MF Pre-Vac facility is well underway, and both on time and on budget. The project is still expected to start up as we approach the end of the third quarter this year and ramp up quickly. That is just a few weeks away. As we have discussed before, Mr. Scholz continues to face some ongoing operational challenges. We are encouraged by the improved performance we have seen there recently and following the planned maintenance outage we had there in the second quarter, and we expect operations to continue to improve as the year progresses. As you can see on the page, these three core end markets represent just over 80% of our last 12 months revenue. Turning lastly to other specialties. We have experienced weakness across most specialties markets for around two years now. These markets are typically dependent upon the health of the industrial economies in each region. While the US economy remains stable today, the economy in Europe is weaker than our prior expectations. Many of our other specialties markets are also impacted by the higher interest rate environment across both regions. To conclude on the end markets, we like the fundamentals in each of the markets we serve, and we strongly believe that the diversification of our end markets is an asset for the company over the longer term. Let's turn now to slide 14. I want to spend a few minutes on two exciting investments we are making in our PARP segment to strengthen the business for the future. I'm excited to announce today that our facility in Muscle Shoals, Alabama was recently selected by the US Department of Defense to receive a grant of 23 million US dollars to increase our internal casting capacity. The total size of the project is expected to be around 65 million US dollars, inclusive of the US Department of Defense grant. In terms of project details, we plan to install state-of-the-art casting equipment in an existing building at Muscle Shoals. Once completed, The new casting center will increase internal casting capacity by up to 300 million pounds or over 130,000 metric tons. In addition to reducing our reliance on external metal supply, the investment is expected to increase our use of recycled input and reduce the use of primary metal. The investment will also provide the US industrial base with an additional self-reliant domestic source of supply for aluminum rolling ingot. Flat rolled aluminum products, including sheet and plate, are critical material inputs for the defense, aerospace, automotive, packaging, and transportation industries. In terms of timing, we expect the casting center to ramp up in the second half of 2026. We are extremely honored and proud to have been selected for this grant and express our gratitude to the Department of Defense for their support of Constellium and the aluminum industry. Moving on to the second investment, I'm also excited to announce today that we have signed a long-term agreement with Lotte Infracell in Europe. Lotte Infracell is a subsidiary of Lotte Aluminum and part of Lotte Corporation, which is one of the largest tables in South Korea with global operations. We are thrilled to collaborate with Lotte and supply their European operations with our high-quality foil stock from our Zingen facility in Germany. The foil stop will be used in electric vehicle battery applications to support future growth in the electric vehicle market. The total investment is around 30 million euros with the contractual support of LOTE and will include new finishing lines at our Zingen facility to enhance production capacity. The project is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 with scheduled ramp up in 2026. This strategic investment is expected to further cement Constellum Zingen's position as a key player in the aluminum automotive specialties market, and to diversify the customer base of our specialty Foilstock. We expect both projects to well exceed our target IRR of 15%, and we expect both projects to be funded within the existing return-seeking capex levels. Please turn to slide 15 now, and I want to give you an update on the situation we are facing in the Valley. In late June, we experienced unprecedented flooding in the valley region of Switzerland, which devastated the region, including industrial activities at Constellium and elsewhere. Our plate and extrusion shops in Sierre and cast house in Schippis were severely flooded and operations have remained suspended since the flood. Our cast house in Steg was not directly impacted and has returned to normal operations. I am pleased to report that all of our employees in the region have been confirmed safe, which is obviously the most important thing. But there is significant damage to the equipment and facilities in Sierre and Chipis. Cleaning and drying operations, as well as a testing and maintenance phase, are all underway. To put our value operations into perspective, we employ around 700 employees in the region out of approximately 12,000 total Constellium employees. The total fishing capacity of Sierra is 70 to 75,000 metric tons or less than 5% of our total capacity and shipments and an even lower percentage of our total manufacturing capacity. Given the fact that Sierra primarily serves the TID and industry extrusion markets in Europe, the capacity utilization pre-flood was lower than compared to a more normal demand environment. At this stage, we are committed to limiting the impact to our customers served from these facilities. I cannot say enough how proud I am of our team on the ground there and the incredible progress they have made in a very short period of time against very significant odds. Turning now to slide 16, we detail our outlook and the impact we are currently expecting as a result of the flood. First, on the impact of the flood. We are working closely with our insurance company and the latest insurance estimates have a gross damage assessment of approximately 135 million euros. This figure includes estimated damages, cleaning costs, and business interruption expenses. The gross damage assessment is before consideration of our insurance claim of up to 50 million euros, which we expect to get in full, and have already received approximately 10 million euros as of today. The gross figure also does not take into account the impact of mitigation plans which are currently underway and potential government assistance as a result of the event of which certain benefits have already been approved. Given the uncertainty around the impact from severe flooding at our facilities in Switzerland, including the extent of the damage, the timing to restart production and the accounting treatment of the event, we are pausing our guidance at this time for 2024. We will continue to update all stakeholders as this situation unfolds, and we plan to reinstate guidance once we have a clearer picture of the overall impact. Excluding the impact from the flood, our 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance would have been reduced by approximately 5%, primarily as a result of the weaker market conditions we described compared to prior expectations. More specifically, our expectations of recovery are tempered further in European automotive, industrial, and other specialties markets, and in some North American markets where demand has been impacted by higher interest rates. We are seeing little improvement in economic indicators in these markets, and we expect these weak conditions to persist at least through the end of this year. Also excluding the impact from the flood, we expect to generate solid free cash flow in 2024 of over 100 million euros. We are confident at this time that the impact from the flood is digestible this year. And at this stage, we are prioritizing the restart based on criticality of equipment and customer needs. Finally, we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our adjusted EBITDA target of over 800 million euros in 2025. Turning lastly to slide 17, we detail our key messages. Our team delivered solid performance in the second quarter of 2024, despite the mixed end market and demand environment we continue to face and the too large planned maintenance outages during the quarter. We delivered strong free cash flow and we increased our share buyback activities in the quarter. To conclude, let me say again that I am proud of our results and our teams and very excited about our future. We have demonstrated over and over again that we have the right strategy, the right teams, and the right products in the right markets, and that we know how to overcome crises. Our business model is flexible and resilient. Our diversified portfolio allows us to always have options in very different market conditions. We have built the balance sheet we need to both weather crises and seize opportunities, and our high value recyclable and sustainable products respond to the growing needs of our customers and society. We are extremely well positioned for long-term success and remain focused on existing our strategy and creating value for our shareholders. With that, Angela, we will now open the Q&A session.
spk06: Thank you very much, Jean-Marc. Everyone, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, please press star followed by T. When preparing to ask you a question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. We'll pause here briefly as the questions are registered. We have the first question from Katya Janczyk with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
spk04: Hi, thank you for taking my question. Maybe starting off on the 25 outlook where you're still expecting to reach over 800 million in EBITDA. Can you maybe talk a little bit about specifics? What's going to drive? How much of that is dependent on market recovery? Or what are just the major buckets of growth there?
spk08: Yes. Good morning, Katia. Thank you for your question. So first, let's say this is a 90 to 100 million euro step up. We need to go from the revised implicit guidance we're giving, even though we have paused it, on the basis of continued operations, to reach our more than 800 million euro in 2025. So if you think of these buckets, there's a number of things. First of all, the CL situation will be behind us, largely, and we'll be back to near normal operations. The second aspect, obviously, the Muscle Shoals weather event we suffered from in January, February of this year, which we do not plan to happen again. The big driver is going to be the Neufbury-Zach Recycling Center. It's starting in just a few weeks from now. It will ramp up quite aggressively in the last quarter of this year. and will be very close to full capacity as early as 2025. We then have in aerospace some better contractual terms on some large contracts that we know are going to materialize, as well as we know that whatever little bit of slowdown there is this year, those planes need to be built, need to be delivered. That will be good for the volumes next year, and in addition, our volumes will be higher next year as well. And finally, we've got the Vision 25 cost reductions that Jack had mentioned on several prior calls. So these elements, which are very much under our control, except for the weather, catastrophic events don't happen several times in a row, will give us more than that $100 million. Now, in addition, As we know, we've got some operational challenges in Muscle Shoals that we are working through. Maybe it's useful that I give a little bit more detail on those. Really, we're in the context of a growing can-sheet market and a growing auto market in the U.S. We've been able to satisfy the growth of the auto market. We are running behind in terms of can-sheet. As you know, we had issues post-COVID with recruitment and stabilization of talent. These issues are largely behind us, but at the same time, we need to increase our capacity in mussel shoals. We've committed significant capsule expenditures to build the plant and improve the efficiencies and the productivity of the plant. This is taking a bit more time than we had planned. But this should be, we're making some progress, not the same rate as what we would like to do. So this should contribute further improvements in 2025. And then finally, we do hope that there will be some European comeback in automotive and specialties. I mean, most of the specialties market are, you know, 30% down compared to the pre-COVID levels. Automotive, you look at the build in Europe, you're still at least 10% down this year compared to 2019. And every year since has been well below 2019 levels. So these will pick up as well, but we're not counting on this for reaching our 2025 target. So as you see, we've got plenty of arrows in our quiver and that's why we feel comfortable despite the odds and the difficult situation we're in to overcome the challenges we're currently facing to deliver on our 2025 guidance.
spk04: If I may add another one, can you just remind us how much is the new recycling facility expected to add to EBITDA?
spk08: Yes, we had said, you know, it's 135 million at more than 20% roughly IRR. It took three years to build. So by and large, say 40 million is the number.
spk07: Yeah, Katja, if I can just add. If I can just add here, we said the capex is 130, 135 million euros plus working capital, right?
spk00: Thank you.
spk06: The next question is from Pimla Tanis with Wolf Research. Your line is open.
spk03: Oh, yeah. Hey, good morning. I joined a little late. I wanted to make sure I don't ask anything that you already touched on. But at the same time, just on the flooding situation, given that it's a relatively small part of your total shipments and a weaker part of the market, is it not possible to produce some of those products at other facilities and kind of drag out the restart? Or are there reasons why you want to ramp back up maybe government support or something I might be missing? And then also along those same specific company questions, is there something structurally wrong at Muscle Shoals, or is all that behind in terms of the challenges?
spk08: Yeah, thanks. Good morning, Tim. Thank you. I know that you're asking new questions. So on the value situation, definitely, we mentioned $135 million approximately impact to the operations. That includes business interaction, but that – Obviously, then we need to work on mitigation. Part of the mitigation is producing these products that we use to produce out of that valley region in other plants. So we're doing just that, prioritizing for the customers that are the most in need. And there is some volumes that is being shifted to Zingen, Germany, and some volumes that are shifted to Issoir, France. Obviously, this is creating a bit of a scramble throughout the organization, but that's not our first rodeo, and we're doing just that. These are not long-term solutions. There is a need for this plant in the Sierra, and that's why we plan to restart it. But we may not restart every piece of equipment and run it exactly as we did in the past, and this is certainly the opportunity to, sadly, uh to make sure we really focus on the critical equipment and rebuild the plant that has a better cost base than the plant we had before the devastating floods so that that would be my answer to the valley situation and any uh other comments jack you have yeah mitigation uh broadly yeah so i i think uh um there's a number of medications which um you alluded to and john mark alluded to so
spk07: But I think in terms of the impact, Timna, so the 135 million euros, just to be kind of abundantly clear, if you will, it's based on our work with our insurance company. And that's really the latest kind of insurance estimate based on industry methodology, which came up with a gross damage assessment of approximately 135 million euros before mitigations that we could have, right? Just to be clear on that point, and then you know if you were to look at you know that figure. You know we're very confident at this time, you know the impact from the flood can be easily kind of digested. Given our you know strong liquidity position of close to 870 million euros, which was, by the way, the highest level in two years, as well as a mitigation plans that we have in place.
spk08: And regarding your second question about Mr. Scholes, is there anything structurally wrong with the plans? No, there isn't. There is a lot of work to do to bring the capacity up to the opportunities we have. It's constant work. It's a lot of work on the team, but we've got the right team, got the right tools, and spending a lot of money to get it there.
spk03: Okay, thank you. If I could, another one. There is a lot of talk into this upcoming election about potential further tariffs. There's also a new mill that's ramping up production in 2025, making a lot of noise, at least, on that impact. So just wondering if you could update us on any thoughts around the new competition starting up in the U.S. Is it going to displace imports? Do tariffs on imports have much meaningful impact for your operations? Thanks.
spk00: Yep.
spk08: Actually, the recent developments in the market, the strength of the – the comeback of the strength of the can is really a testament to the fact that more capacity is needed. There are – there's a lot of import coming into the U.S., the equivalent essentially of nearly a green field, and the ramp-up will take some time as well, right? It's not like, you know, you turn it on and all of a sudden it produces at a rated capacity. So we actually welcome this development. Our customers certainly welcome it. And if anything, and I think I've been quite open about it repeatedly, we could sell more if we could produce more. And that's a statement both in the short term, this quarter, the next quarter, as well as in the medium and long term. So I think we're in a good place. Regarding tariffs, it's impossible to predict what's going to happen. And as I think I've mentioned to you in the past, anti-dumping, which is directed at specific customers that don't play by the rules, you can ascertain what the impact of the tariffs will be. The carpet-bombing blanket approach to tariffs, that's very complicated to ascertain what the impact would be because Typically, there's circumventing opportunities, exemptions, and all that. So it's very, very difficult to tell. So we'll wait and see, and we'll react and adapt.
spk07: Okay. Go ahead. Sorry, excuse me. If I could just come back to the valet. topic real quick and recognizing maybe I didn't ask some of the details I could have added. So just relative to the approximately 135 million euros of estimate, you know, we do have insurance claim that's, you know, capped at up to 50 million euros for this event. And we have gotten, you know, approval for some governmental assistance and that work will, you know, potentially there's room for more.
spk03: No, I got that. I'm sorry, just one more follow-up if I could. Just tactically speaking, when would you expect to revisit your guidance for EBITDA that you suspended? And, you know, that is just for clarification, that is going to exclude the impact of metal price changes. If we just mark the market the latest aluminum price, you'd see some of that windfall number, or at least the headline number, come out in Q3. I just want to make sure that makes sense or if that's reasonable to assume.
spk08: Yeah, Jack will help me to answer your question, but I'll say that the big driver is really the uncertainty about when we restart the operations in Sierre. And that's why we wanted to be clear about if we hadn't had the flood, we would have guided down by about 5%. When we restart operations is really about making sure we have a good understanding of all the damages that have happened. That's why we've got this provisional figure. We think it's going to be less, could be more, but most likely it's going to be less. But when we restart is really going to make a difference to the EBITDA. We'll be able to tell you sometime in October. I think by the time we publish Q3, we'll have a very good idea of when we restart. And just to give you a kind of mental image, right? Imagine acres and acres of plants under roof, under five feet of water for a couple of days. And then when the waters recede, everything caked in mud and silt, eight inches thick. That's what we got to deal with. Power hasn't been restored yet to the site because of damages on the transformers and the grid. So there is a lot of work to clean up, make sure that every motor, every electrical cabinet, every bearing is working properly, and then we can restart. So that's why it takes time. We have an idea of the magnitude of the damage, but time is needed to properly restart safely our operations.
spk03: Okay, great. Thank you.
spk06: Thank you, the next question is from dill to send with JP Morgan your line is open.
spk02: yeah hi this is bill peterson thanks for taking the questions and thanks for all the insights you share in the call on the on the Switzerland sites. You talked about your company for 5% achievements and then less in terms of revenue, but I guess, just to be clear, what is the sort of. you know, I don't know, last 12 months or some way to think about the EBITDA contribution of the site?
spk07: So, Bill, we won't be precise here, but I think, you know, we did put out there the finished capacity just to give you a rough idea, right? And as we've said in the script, the activities for those end markets were lower given some of the weaknesses in those end markets. So I think you can get to sort of a rough ballpark, but it's not a significant contributor to our overall earnings by any means.
spk08: And Bill, the other thing I'll say that, yeah, the other thing I'll say that under all likely scenario, most of that will be restored in 2025. So think of it as a big when it, one-time hit as we essentially have the cost of the plant. Yes, we have some assistance, but we have the cost of the plant, but it's not producing anything for a few months. That's what the impact is this year. And obviously we've got some inventory that has been damaged, some equipment that will need repairs. So that's all in the 135 million max number. But then, you know, once that's behind us, which is by the end of this year, we're back to, you know, from a financial standpoint, back to Noble.
spk02: Yeah. Okay, thanks for that. And then, I guess, how should we think about the net debt target, you know, given the cut to free cash flow guidance and you're already kind of pushing up against the higher end? I guess, do you have an appetite to exceed this target or, you know, will buybacks be on hold? How should we think about net leverage as well as buybacks from here?
spk07: yeah so it's a really good question so look i mean we're comfortable with our capital structure of our leverages at you know at a comfortable level so um you know we won't be too bothered by you know intro year fluctuations in leverage right our goal is still to aim to maintain a leverage between you know one half to two and a half times um and now if we're talking about um you know cash generation versus buyback and um with the corresponding revised guidance and the valet situation. So I think the way we're looking at it, Bill, is, you know, the valet flood event, it's really sort of a one-time in nature, right? And, you know, we're still on track to generate significant free cash flow, over 100 million euros, excluding that impact. So our liquidity is very strong, as I mentioned, close to 870 million euros, so we can easily digest it. the impact from the flooding event. It doesn't really change how we look at shareholder returns, so we're still aiming to return a large portion of our free cash flow this year through share buybacks, and we're committed to the three-year program.
spk02: Thanks, Jack. Thanks, Mark.
spk07: Thank you, Bill.
spk06: Thank you. The next question is from Corinne Blanchard with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
spk05: Hey, good morning, everyone. The first question, can you try to help us bridge the 2025 EBITDA? So you maintain the 800 million of EBITDA. Just trying to understand what would be the key bucket or key items to get us from whatever you would do in 24 and reach that 800 million for next year.
spk08: Good morning, Corinne. So I'll rephrase what I said in the first question. So, Corinne, to 90 to 100 million, you know, bridge to more than 800 million next year, just to give us a little bit of flexibility and latitude. So number one, as I mentioned, the Sierra event is digested behind us and we're back to operations that are essentially normal there. We do not anticipate another ice storm and a snowstorm in Muster Shoals that puts us down for nearly two weeks. Then you've got the Neuve-Puisac Recycle Center that's going to be up and running. It's going to be starting just in a few weeks from now, so we feel very comfortable about our ability to deliver on this one. Then in aerospace, we've got two factors. One is there's going to be more volume next year. That's contractual. And then there's also better contractual terms. That's also contractual by definition. And finally, we've got Vision 25 cost savings that Jack has alluded to a number of times on past calls that will have a full year impact next year. So the addition of these is well in excess of $100 million or in is around 100 million, let's say. And in addition, we're going to have a better performance in mussel shoals, as all the capital expenditures were spending there to improve the productivity of the plants is paying out. And we also have most likely some European comeback. So that's the one we can have different views about. But as we mentioned, it's been five years now that the EU For instance, the automotive markets in Europe have been below pre-COVID levels. And at some point, Europeans will need to change their cars. So that's going to be also some kind of a bounce back volume at some point, which will benefit us.
spk05: Great, thank you. And sorry if I jumped the call a little bit late. So the second question was, you mentioned industry and specialty markets, they remain weak. Do you envision at some point to maybe exit those markets and move your capacity towards auto and maybe packaging, if you can do it? Or would you remain in those markets?
spk08: No, we don't think of exiting. We view the diversification as an asset. But at times, obviously, when you're diversified into many markets, you always have one market that is suffering a bit. There is actually a subtle shift into more automotive that's taking place in Europe. Now, the timing is not very fortunate, but over time, we think that's a good thing. But fundamentally, we believe that the specialties markets we have can be good markets for us, and we have work to do to improve our product mix and focus on niches that are more remunerative. And that's why, for instance, we communicated Just today around the investment we're making with Lotte to provide foil stock for battery, electric battery material. That's one way to use our assets towards more contributive markets. So that's a constant work. We do that all the time, every year, and over time we're shaping a better specialty portfolio. So no, we don't plan to exit further, but that said, I mean, that's a very legitimate question. Last year, we exited the extrusion market in Germany and sold three plants because these were not satisfactory. But at the moment, everything we have, we like, and we just try to make it stronger.
spk05: Great. Thank you.
spk06: Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, you may press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. The next question is from Josh Sullivan with the Benchmark Company. Your line is open.
spk09: Good morning. Morning, Josh. Mark, you mentioned earlier in the call, I think you said whatever slowdown there is this year for aerospace. How are you thinking about the new A320 build rate long-term assumption? Sounds like it's still working its way through the system. Maybe what scenarios are you leaning towards for aerospace pole this year and next?
spk08: Yeah, so we were a little bit more cautious than what the OEMs were publishing, I guess. And we continue to be a little bit more cautious, realizing that it takes many, many parts and many, many suppliers to build an aircraft. And given the fact that they are still in ramp-up mode, here or there, there will be some growing pains. So I would look at it as more upside. Upside is more likely or possible than downside in terms of how we look at it. But we are not the limiting factor in the supply chain, right? I just want to make that very clear. We're a very dependable supplier and able to ramp up.
spk09: Yeah, I guess there's a perspective that dependable suppliers like yourself might be paced as the less dependable suppliers are, you know, some more effort is put towards that. I mean, are you seeing that dynamic?
spk08: I guess a little bit, yes. Our growth is constrained by the weakest link in the supply chain, I guess.
spk09: And then kind of looking ahead, What's your perspective on when wide bodies really start to have more of a pull on the market versus narrow body?
spk08: It seems like they're starting to come back. Yeah, it seems like they're starting to come back. And we're seeing that in the perspectives that are shared with us with the OEMs. So that's good news to us. You know, the narrow bodies were the ones coming back with a vengeance post-COVID and the white bodies were lagging and that gap is closing now.
spk09: Got it. And then within TID, what does the demand for defense products look like? And then is there any impact to that market from the flood?
spk08: Okay. So on defense, we produce quite a bit of defense in the US out of Ravenswood. So that's not impacted. We have some production out of Sierre for the defense markets. Quite a bit of that has a backup in Issoir. And given the fact that we've got a little bit of an open capacity with Aero because we are not the constraining factor in the supply chain, that is allowing us the ability to produce some of these parts that are produced in Sierre to produce them in Issoir. So that's part of the mitigation that will bring that €135 million down. instance. So we do not expect, I mean, we very much have in mind continuity at our customers and we do everything we can to make sure that they are not impacted. And at the moment, even though the situation is tense with some customers, we've been able to, you know, deliver what they need. And we think we will be able to do that for most of the most of this year, so through the painful event in the Valley.
spk09: Got it. I jumped the gun there, but thank you for the time. Thanks, Josh.
spk06: Thank you. We currently have no further questions, so I'll hand back to Jean-Marc for closing remarks.
spk08: Well, thank you very much for being on the call today. As you can see, we're going through a little bit of a rough patch. The teams are fully capable of overcoming them. I'm actually very proud of them. I was visiting the Valley last week, and I come back from this visit energized. So thank you very much, and I look forward to updating you on our progress as soon as possible. Thank you. Goodbye.
spk06: Thank you, John. Mark, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
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