CatchMark Timber Trust, Inc. Class A

After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ursula Godoy, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our review of Catchmark Timber Trust results for fourth quarter and full year 2021. I am Ursula Godoy, Chief Financial Officer of Catchmark. Joining me today on the call are Chief Executive Officer Brian Davis and Chief Resources Officer Todd Wright. During this call, Catchmark management will make forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current beliefs and the information currently available. Catchmark's actual results will be affected by certain risks and uncertainties that are beyond its control or ability to predict and could cause our actual results to differ materially from expectations. For more information about the factors that could cause such differences, we refer you to our 2020 Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent reports that we filed with the SEC. Today's presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measurements are included in our fourth quarter 2021 earnings release and financial supplement, which are posted on our website. After our presentation, Brian, Todd, and I will be pleased to answer any of your questions. Now, I turn over the call to Chief Executive Officer Brian Davis.

Thanks, Ursula. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our review of 2021 fourth quarter and full year results. as well as 2022 company guidance. I also want to reiterate yesterday's declaration of a quarterly cash dividend of 7.5 cents per share for Catchmark common stockholders of record as of February 28, 2022, payable on March 15. With hindsight, 2021 will be viewed as a crucially important year for Catchmark. It culminated in a strengthened company with a simplified business model focused on operations, in one of the world's most important and increasingly dominant wood baskets, the U.S. South. We are clearly positioned for success, as powerful macro forces are working to drive sustainable product price appreciation in catchmark markets. Our operating model, based on delivered wood and opportunistic stumpage sales from our prime timberland harvests and premier mill markets, continues to prove out in delivering substantial timber sales pricing premiums. and we continue to achieve the highest productivity per acre among our peer set while maintaining consistent per acre stocking levels. Retail demand for our land sales remains robust. Following the completion of recent strategic large dispositions and the Triple T exit, we have significantly strengthened our balance sheet and have ample capital available to support a disciplined acquisition strategy. We also are pursuing exciting options for solar, carbon sequestration, and wetlands mitigation banking to maximize both the near-term cash flow potential and long-term value of our timberlands. Recently, we signed a 4,000-acre lease with a solar developer and have option agreements on almost 8,000 acres with other solar developers. From a results standpoint, for full year 2021, we realized net income of $58.4 million or $1.20 per share. We met our 2021 guidance for adjusted EBITDA at the higher end of the guidance range. We generated a record $47.2 million of net cash provided by operating activities, 17% higher than 2020. We produced CAD of $34.1 million and paid total cash distributions of $23.3 million to shareholders. The resulting payout ratio was below our historical range of 75% to 85% of cash available for distribution. We achieved full-year U.S. South pricing for pulpwood and salt timber, 17% and 14% higher than in 2020, respectively, driven by strong market fundamentals. And we concluded a major capital recycling program and refocused efforts on U.S. South expansion. Regional household formation and home construction, mill expansions, and ongoing decline of Canadian market competition due to pine beetle infestation and British Columbia harvest deferrals have helped and should continue to help increase demand in the U.S. South and create sustainable pricing tension, particularly in catchmark superior markets where we consistently have outperformed. All indicators point to significant growth in the U.S. South. for the lumber, pellet, and pulp industries, leading to tightening wood markets and price appreciation over time. It's the largest wood market in North America and the only region which is appreciably expanding. The pellet industry is the fastest growing not only in North America, but also globally. And sawmills are also expanding to meet increased demand, especially given longstanding and ongoing population growth in the region. We believe we are strategically concentrating our operations and focusing on prime timberlands and leading mill markets in the right place at the right time. Fourth quarter 2021 results highlight our transition to a simplified, stronger business model, which is bolstered by ongoing product price appreciation. Net income of $33.9 million and earnings per share of 70 cents resulted primarily from the company's exit from the Triple T joint venture. proceeds from which were used to repay debt and further improve the company's capital position. The significant timber sales price increases in our harvest operations cushioned planned lower harvest volume, revenues, and adjusted EBITDA following the Triple T exit and abandoned sale. For the quarter, U.S. South timber sales pricing was 32% and 21% higher than prior year for pulpwood and salt timber, respectively. Our blended pricing for pulpwood and salt timber has increased sequentially for three out of the last four quarters. Lower asset management fees resulted from the Triple T exit, but Dawsonville Bluffs continued to generate fees and incentive base promotes from managing successful wetlands mitigation banking activities. This is an environmental initiative we intend to expand into further as part of our growth strategy. Selling fewer timberlands across the quarter compared to fourth quarter 2020 was due to timing, as most of 2021 sales occurred earlier in the year. During the quarter, we achieved significantly higher pricing year-over-year on acres with lesser stocking levels while contributing to meaningful year guidance targets for timberland sales. We have consistently achieved pricing above market averages on timber sales for both pulpwood and salt timber. and expect this will be a key differentiator in catch mark performance going forward. The results have been and will be directly attributable to our investments in prime timberlands and operations in leading mill markets using delivered and opportunistic stumpage sales. We are very confident about generating predictable, stable cash flow and delivering fully covered dividends within or below our historical payout ratio of 75% to 85% of cash available for distribution. At the same time, utilizing our strengthened balance sheet, we are moving forward to grow through acquisitions of high-quality timberlands and leading U.S. mill markets that can capitalize on our successful model. That means remaining disciplined and prudent in seeking investments that can sustain our industry-leading harvest EBITDA per acre and market pricing premiums. while also maintaining stable per acre merchantable inventory. Opportunities pursuing carbon sequestration, wetland mitigation banking, and solar energy also remain underway. In summary, 2021 marked the end of a transition period of simplifying and strengthening Ketchmark's business model. It marked the end of our capital recycling program, focused on large dispositions, including the successful Bandon sale. and it also marked the end of our involvement with Triple T. We head into 2022 with a clear strategy based on focusing our activities in not only the nation's premier woodbasket, but also one of the leading timberland regions in the world, the U.S. South. The U.S. South, more than any other region in North America, is in the midst of a significant expansion supported by economic drivers that should help ensure steady demand for catchment harvest and support attractive price appreciation. We are taking full advantage of our investments in prime timberlands and leading U.S. south mill markets, utilizing our very successful delivered wood and opportunistic stumpage sales model. Our focus is on continuing to deliver our sizable pricing premiums on timber sales, sustain our timberlands, using superior stewardship practices to maintain their attractive stocking and productivity levels over time. and make new investments that fit our model to grow durable cash flow and shareholder value. Now, Ursula will cover fourth quarter and full year's results in greater detail, as well as review our capital positioning.

Thank you, Brian. Both fourth quarter and full year results highlight Catchmark's strong operational performance. We capture higher timber sales prices and achieve continued pricing premiums compared to market. We exited Triple T and concluded our capital recycling program with a very profitable abandoned sale, which allowed us to concentrate activities exclusively in the U.S. South. For fourth quarter 2021, lower year-over-year total revenues and adjusted EBITDA resulted from planned lower harvest volumes following recent large dispositions and lower asset management fees due to the Triple T exit. We also sold fewer Timberland acres during the quarter, as most sales were completed earlier in the year. The revenue impact of planned lower harvest volumes was lessened by significant increases in timber sales pricing as we sustained pricing premiums over U.S. south-wide averages. For the quarter ended December 31, 2021, Catchmark generated revenues of $20.5 million compared to $30.9 million in fourth quarter 2020. Timber sales revenue totaled $16.4 million versus $19.9 million in fourth quarter 2020. As planned, total harvest volume decreased year over year by 14% to approximately 500,000 tons. We captured significant timber sales price increases year over year. 32% for pulpwood, and 21% for saw timber. When compared to Timber Mart South U.S. Southwide averages, pulpwood and saw timber stumpage pricing registered 52% and 38% premiums, respectively. We realized net income of $33.9 million compared to a $3 million net loss in fourth quarter 2020. resulting primarily from the Triple T exit. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $9 million compared to $17.3 million in fourth quarter 2020. Breaking out adjusted EBITDA by segments. For the fourth quarter, harvest EBITDA was $8.8 million compared to $9.7 million in fourth quarter 2020. Real estate EBITDA decreased to $900,000 year-over-year from $6.4 million in 2020. Most of our 2021 timberland sales occurred earlier in the year, so fewer acres were sold in the fourth quarter as planned. Pricing and margins for acres sold were higher year-over-year despite lower stocking levels on sold acres. Investment management EBITDA of $2.2 million compared to $3.2 million in 2020 was attributable to the TTT exit and the replacement of its asset management agreement with the transition services agreement effective through first quarter of 2022. The Dawsonville Blobs joint venture continues to provide asset management fees and register incentive-based promotes for our ongoing mitigation banking activities. We also paid a dividend of 7.5 cents per share to stockholders on December 15, 2021. For the full year ended December 31, 2021, higher timber sales revenues driven by higher pricing helped spur strong operating results despite lower planned harvest volumes. Catchmark generated revenues of $102 million nearly comparable to $104.3 million in 2020. Timber sales revenue of $72.5 million was slightly higher than prior year's $72.3 million, highlighting the strength of product pricing as harvest volumes were near the low end of guidance at just over 2 million tons. Timberland sales revenue met guidance, decreasing 10% to $14.1 million from $15.6 million in 2020 due to selling fewer acres but at higher pricing and margins. Asset management fees declined 6% due to the Triple T exit and related transition services agreement. Net income totaled $58.4 million compared to a $17.5 million net loss in 2020. primarily the result of recognizing gains on the Triple T exit and band enlarged disposition. We achieved adjusted EBITDA of $49.4 million at the upper end of guidance compared to $52.1 million for full year 2020. Breaking out adjusted EBITDA by segments. For full year 2021, harvest EBITDA held steady at $34.2 million. Real estate EBITDA of $13.4 million declined slightly from $14.7 million in prior years. And investment management EBITDA of $12.3 million was comparable to $12.6 million in 2020. Taking into consideration the completion of capital recycling, the TTT exit, and our renewed focus on operations in the U.S. South, full-year 2021 results met or exceeded guidance and highlighted the strength of our business model to continue to deliver premium pricing from our timber sales. At the same time, we also have continued to strengthen our balance sheet considerably. And now, turning to our review of Catchmark's capital position at year-end 2021. All of our deleveraging efforts resulting from strategic initiatives including simplifying our business, capital recycling, focusing operations in the U.S. South after the successful abandoned cell, and exiting Triple T, have positioned us well for the next growth phase. We have ample debt capital and cash on hand to execute on growth opportunities, including acquisitions and various environmental initiatives. The two profitable 2021 capital recycling dispositions Bandon and Oglethorpe, were particularly impactful. Comprising 23,100 acres and totaling $107.5 million, the two cells generated a gain of $24.2 million. Bandon in the Pacific Northwest sold for $100 million, on which a $23.4 million gain was recognized. Net proceeds of $95.4 million were used to pay down outstanding debt. As a result, liquidity has increased from $180 million at the end of the second quarter to $277 million at year end, with $254 million of borrowing capacity and $23 million of cash on hand. Borrowing capacity was comprised of $150 million under our multi-draw term facility, $69 million under our delayed draw term loan, and $35 million under our working capital facility. Our $300 million of debt outstanding has an effective 2.9% cost of debt capital with no near-term maturities, and we are well within our financial covenants. In 2021, we paid out dividends of approximately $23.3 million, or 48 cents per share. These dividends were fully covered by cash available for distribution of $34.1 million. This was below the company's target CAD payout ratio range of 75% to 85%. We made no share repurchases under Catchmark's share repurchase program during the year. and had approximately $13.7 million remaining in the program for future repurchases as of December 31, 2021. In sum, Catchmark is in a very strong capital position as we execute on our growth strategy. Now, Todd will review harvest operations and timberland sales. Todd?

Thank you, Ursula, and good morning, everyone. The fourth quarter delivered solid performance results for Catchmark's harvest operations as we turned our focus entirely on the U.S. South. Residual impacts of regional wet weather in third quarter kept pressure on fourth quarter logging production while customer raw material inventories remained low. The pricing tension benefited Catchmark with favorable supply-demand dynamics in our markets, fueled by the strong fundamentals of increasing home building, robust repair and remodeling, ongoing mill expansions, and ownership focused in regions with extremely competitive markets and tight growth to drain characteristics. These fundamental dynamics remain in place in 2022 as well. The flexibility of our operating model using delivered wood and opportunistic stumpage sales continues to produce significant benefits. In a market environment with a finite number of loggers to work with, it helps control our supply chain, allows us to get price premiums for our harvests, while loggers benefit from higher utilization rates and it mitigates our risk and theirs. We capitalized on greater market pricing tension by negotiating delivered and stumpage sale pricing increases. Successful negotiations with many of our customers to support delivered price increases helped us offset rising costs and maintain our stumpage values as we passed increases along to our delivered logging contractors. As a result, we continue to achieve substantial pricing premiums, also the strategic outcome of concentrating prime Timberland holdings in leading U.S. south mill markets. In the fourth quarter, year-over-year increases in the U.S. south were 32% for pulpwood and 21% for saw timber, and sequential quarter-over-quarter, 19% for pulpwood and 10% for saw timber. More tellingly, catchmark pulpwood and saw timber stumpage pricing also scored substantially above timber mart south south-wide pricing, 52% and 38% higher for pulpwood and saw timber, respectively. Same kind of pricing advantages were registered for full year. Catch mark stumpage prices for pulpwood and saw timber were 17% and 14% higher, respectively, compared to the prior year, trending in general with increases in south-wide prices. But we also realized 54% and 20% premiums for pulpwood and saw timber, respectively, over U.S. south-wide averages. Land lower harvest volumes followed successful execution of the two capital recycling large dispositions Bandon in Oregon, and Oglethorpe in Georgia. For the year in the U.S. South, we registered a 4% increase in timber sales revenue over 2020 derived from the strong pricing we achieved through negotiations for delivered volume along with opportunistic stumpage sales and despite the planned 11% decrease in harvest volume. Before selling Bandon in August, we harvested 90% of planned full-year Pacific Northwest harvest volumes, generated $9 million in timber sales revenue, and captured a 7% increase in weighted average saw timber pricing year over year. Going forward, customer and product mix will remain key as we stay nimble to meet changing market dynamics. Strong lumber demand and improved pricing during the fourth quarter provide a favorable basis for negotiating with our customers, and strong macro demand fundamentals help too. They are pushing mill production, and that translates into improved market price across our regions for chip and saw and pine saw timber products, especially in the south central region of our Georgia timberlands where our key customers have invested capital to improve existing mill capacity or built new facilities in the past three years. Now let's review timberland sales, which need to be viewed in the context of our having already met the lower range of our full-year timberland sales guidance by the end of the third quarter. It was a year highlighted by exceptionally strong buyer demand for our timberland sales. As expected, we executed $1 million in timberland sales in the fourth quarter, 400 acres sold compared to 4,000 acres sold for $6.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. And we achieved significantly higher pricing year over year, $2,597 per acre compared to $1,662 per acre in fourth quarter 2020. Margins also increased significantly year-over-year, 44% in the fourth quarter compared to 19% in 2020. In addition, the excellent pricing was realized despite lower stocking levels on sold timberlands compared to the prior year and is indicative of the robust demand for rural rec property within our ownership. For full year, we met guidance for timberland sales revenue, a 10% drop year-over-year, selling 19% fewer acres. We also achieved an 11% higher per acre price in 2020, despite a 19% lower total stocking. Margins increased to 31% compared to 21% in 2020, and acres sold had an average merchantable timber stocking of 21 tons per acre compared to 26 tons in 2020, and well below the catch mark portfolio average of 39 tons per acre. Brian, back to you.

Thanks, Todd. Catchmark enters 2022 stronger and more focused than ever. Our business model is tested, proven, and consistently successful at achieving timber sales price premiums while we maintain industry-leading productivity per acre and stable per acre stocking. Our operations should benefit from dynamic long-term forces driving demand in the markets where we are located. And we are poised for growth as a result of recent strategic decisions to strengthen our balance sheets. After reducing our footprint in the last several years, we see 2022 as a start to meaningful resumed expansion as we continue to produce durable cash flow to cover our dividend comfortably and create shareholder value. It will be a disciplined, prudent, step-by-step process, and it will show meaningful results over time as we gather momentum. Looking at full-year guidance for 2022, Catchmark projects a gap net loss of between $5 and $7 million. We expect adjusted EBITDA of between $35 and $41 million. Harvest volumes are forecast between 1.6 and 1.8 million tons, reflecting consistent annual productivity on a per acre basis, with a salt timber mix of approximately 45 to 50%. Harvests are expected to increase during each of the first three quarters with fourth quarter volume approximating the average. Asset management fee revenue is projected at approximately $2 million, and timberland sales targets are anticipated in the range of $15 million to $17 million, representing about 2.5% of our fee acreage. We expect about one-third of our annual timberland sales to occur in the first quarter. Timber sales pricing will be key to driving our 2022 performance. We expect macro demand fundamentals in the U.S. South will continue to produce sustained pricing tension, which will benefit in particular the leading markets where we concentrate our operations. We expect our saw timber and total weighted average pricing to increase between 10% and 15% year-over-year during 2022. Our markets and many of our customers are expanding operations and capacity as demand for their products is increasing. We all benefit from our superior wood basket primed to support this growth. As I stated earlier, Catchmark is positioned for success in the right place at the right time. This outlook does not include potential contributions from future acquisitions and investments. including monetization of the company's environmental initiatives, which include opportunities related to carbon sequestration, wetlands mitigation banking, and solar projects. In assessing new investments, we continue to be diligent and disciplined, seeking timberlands that will fit into our growth strategy. We continue to focus on acquisitions with near-term cash accretion or long-term accretive portfolio attributes, as well as potential for providing environmentally focused alternative income opportunities. We see opportunities in the marketplace, including both on local acquisitions to our existing portfolio. We believe smaller acquisitions in the current environment are better, and that's where we are concentrating our activity. Now well into the first quarter of 2022, all of us at Catchmark are energized about the year ahead. Our strategic focus on driving predictable and sustainable performance remains underpinned by our superior stewardship of prime timberlands and high-demand U.S. South mill markets, which maximizes cash flow throughout the business cycle, seeking to capture the highest value per acre and sustainable yields. We have the capital to move ahead with our growth plans, and we are well-positioned to continue to fully cover our dividend from cash available for distribution while building long-term value for our shareholders. 2022 is going to be a very productive year at Catchmark, and all of us hope your year is off to a good start too. Now, Ursula, Todd, and I will be pleased to take your questions.

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Dave Rogers with Baird. You may now go ahead.

Yeah, good morning, everybody. Brian and Todd wanted to start with you on the acquisition front and what you might be seeing. You mentioned them right at the end of your comments, Brian, but I'm curious on kind of what that pipeline looks like, you know, now that the portfolio cleanup is largely complete. So what's that pipeline and how do you view a kind of accretion of the stuff that you want to buy today over the next year or so?

Certainly. Good morning, Dave. Well, we really highlighted three aspects of when we take a look at acquisitions. We've got kind of the near-term accretion approach. We've got an aspect that we look at from a portfolio standpoint that helps smooth out our H class. And we also look at opportunities with environmental aspects to it, not too dissimilar to mitigation bank credits that we've seen in Dawsonville Bluffs. We're building our pipeline now. really centered around the markets in which we're operating in. We're looking at our pipeline does consist of some off-marketed and marketed transactions. I do want to talk a little bit about the market in of itself. We think this year's market offerings may be a little choppy. It's interesting that we're seeing some institutional owners that have seen some big growth in their values in 2021 expect the same thing in 2022. You combine that with trying to assess valuations associated with carbon value and other initiatives, they may look to hold on to their holdings for this period. What we've also seen is that folks who, institutional owners who sold off in the last couple of years are looking to get back into the market. So you're seeing this really competitive market, especially in the larger offerings and historically in larger offerings, you've seen what we call a big deal discount. We think that's really kind of evaporated from a deal standpoint. And so for us, when we take a look at market bite sizes, Ursula alluded to, we have easily on our balance sheet being able to deploy about $100 million and really keep our leverage profile at our historical average and really put that to work without having to look at the equity markets. And so What we feel is that we've got, really, we've got a small track program, which we're spread out within our marketplace, looking at transaction sizes at the low end of the $5 million, and then working up to about $50 million. The pipeline does continue to build. And one thing that we've also have done, and we haven't been successful to date, is actually partnering with other institutional investors, but not in the way of a joint venture, but essentially looking at an asset, bifurcating that asset and coming in with a joint bid. That way it's the cheapest source of capital for us in a way that we can get the type of assets that we want. So Dave, when you're really talking about how are we building our pipeline, we're advancing on all fronts. It's going to be a choppy market. People are believing in the values and what we've seen on the ground. And when we think about accretion, we really think about it in either a near-term cash accretion relative to what we're doing or a portfolio accretion that allows us to be sustainable and over-harvesting on a long-term basis and filling our age gaps that go along with it. And we also understand what our cost of capital is, and that's why it's important for us to have the type of debt capital available to us at this point in time to demonstrate our activity as it relates to acquisitions. What we did also allude to is it's going to take some time to get us that type of momentum. We are going to be very disciplined in putting a ring in the bell when we take a look at acquisitions. So We're looking at all things at all times.

I appreciate all the added color there, Brian. Maybe on the flip side of that, talk about land sale activity. I think you maybe had communicated previously you'd like to do a little bit more. Pricing is up, doing a little bit less. So I don't know if that's a function of some of the solar initiatives or other things that you're looking at or what you're thinking about in terms of land sales in the guidance. But I guess talk about what your view is on that 2.5% of fee acreage.

Yes, certainly. So it's really part and parcel when we take a look at our portfolio of assets. We have very strong product price appreciation that goes along with this. Double digit last year, we expect double digit again this year. Land sale pipeline, given that we have a third of that really wrapped up in the first quarter of this year, we have an opportunity to really create additional tension associated with the types of land sales that we'll be making. We have good margins associated with those. we didn't feel it was necessary to demonstrate the full 3%. But we do have that flexibility. We're going to be a seller if it makes the best sense for us on a long-term basis relative to holding those assets. So I wouldn't read much more into it other than taking a look at our portfolio of assets. That being said, Todd, maybe talk about at the ground level what we're seeing from a demand side on the retail.

Absolutely. And it's a mix of buyers. You've got family trusts, adjoining landowners. You know, you've got people out there with some 1031 money that want to do exchanges. And so it's, you know, interestingly, you know, you're not seeing a whole lot of people that are looking for something that has to be fully timbered. I mean, we've been able to maintain, you know, timber reservations on these properties. And so it's just people are looking to place money in a hard asset as opposed to maybe the stock market at this point in time.

All right. Thank you very much.

Thanks, Dave.

Thanks, Dave.

Our next question comes from Anthony Petaneri with Citi. You may now go ahead.

Good morning. Good morning. Brian, just circling back to the southern Timberland market, I'm wondering, I mean, we're two years into the pandemic, and I guess the pandemic probably froze a lot of transactions or transaction volume was depressed. Between the beginning of 2020 and today, sort of before the pandemic and to date, how much do you think good quality industrial timberlands in the South have appreciated on a dollar per acre basis or on a percentage basis? Is there any kind of color that you can give there? And then to the extent that you're focused on bolt-ons, Is it safe to say that those would be sort of adjacent to existing lands, or could you be interested in maybe a new part of the South or a state that you're not currently operating in? Thanks.

Absolutely. So from an appreciation standpoint, when you take a look at doing a DCF on an asset, you're really looking, especially on a larger basis, you're looking over a longer-term aspect to it. So product pricing does have an influence regarding valuations itself. I think there are Before, you had a little bit more speculation regarding the expectation of pricing, so you had more risk as you were doing valuations. And I know in our market, we're actually demonstrating or experiencing the type of product price appreciation. So what I would tell you is that the areas, the markets still matter regarding what you're seeing in product price appreciation. In some of the Gulf states, you're not going to see the same type of product price appreciation. You're seeing Gulf states, you are seeing mills. going into the Gulf States areas. There's a reason for that. It's going to take a while for those to come on. That product pricing is still going to be speculative. So you're not going to see that notable product price, that acreage appreciation that you would see in some of our markets that we have, like in Georgia or the Carolinas or eastern Alabama. So what I would tell you is it's still bifurcated, not too dissimilar to what you see in our product pricing. would be the same kind of characterization in what I would see in land value. So, you know, it's like Class A office space, Anthony. It's the same concept on having high-quality assets should appreciate at a greater rate relative to other assets and other markets. So as you're trying to think about on a per-acre basis, I would say ours is appreciated greater than if we had owned something in the Gulf states. Secondly, I think you had asked about bolt-ons. Yeah, those are typically going to be in our existing mill market. We have a very strong delivered wood aspect to our business. We have great relationships. Stumpage is another part of which we go along with that. We feel that we can get the operational scale when we really look at bolt-ons in our areas. And so when we look at something, if we want to go outside of our market, it has to be a market. So not just somewhere how we thought about Bandon. Bandon, we had... It was a great asset. We had 18,000 acres, but in order to get scale there, we're going to have to really double our size there. And that opportunity relative to the valuation is going to be very difficult for us. So in the near term, we really feel that near local areas is going to be best for us from a bolt-on. We'll look at areas outside of where we're operating only if we can get scale associated with that for our operating model in of itself. And so I'm not saying we wouldn't, but there have to be some considerations that go along with that.

Okay, that's very helpful. And then just quick follow-up, is there anything, you know, more that you can say about the solar projects in terms of, you know, timeline, earnings accretion, you know, potential for the future, just kind of any finer point you can put on, you know, the projects that you signed up for or maybe just, you know, opportunities through 22-23? Thanks.

Yeah, I'll give you a quick read. So we noted one transaction that we have with 4,000 acres that's going through the feasibility stage. We basically get some cash up front associated with those 4,000 acres. And, you know, it's not notable other than from the standpoint that you're getting something that would be in excess of what you'd be getting from a recreational lease standpoint. But we do get the harvested trees off of it. Really where the juice in these types of transactions is really from the rental income that you would get on a perpetuity basis, or essentially perpetuity up to 30 years that you get on an annual basis that would be equal to or maybe in excess of what that standing timber would be. And that's really where the opportunities are in these types of solar projects. And so from an earnings accretion standpoint, we're fortunate we're located in the U.S. South. It's much sunnier than where you are up in New York, and so you may not have the same appreciation, but we do get a lot of vitamin D down here, and so therefore it creates a lot of opportunity in the solar. And so when you expand that, you multiply that out inside of a footprint, that's really where those opportunities are going to come in. Great. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Buck Horn with Raymond James. You may now go ahead.

Hey, good morning. Thanks for the time. I wanted to ask you, Brian, on the pricing expectation for, you know, being able to sustain maybe a 10% to 15% year-on-year improvement in saw timber pricing. You know, what kind of visibility do you guys have around that kind of – you know, that outlook against how long, you know, forward into the backlog, you know, do you have in terms of, you know, your contracts or, you know, your confidence level and how that's going to play out over the course of the year?

Well, confidence level has got to be high if we're going to include it in our guidance box. So, from the standpoint, it's interesting. So, As you're always preparing for these types of calls, you look at what we've been talking about. And I went back to last year and saying we really felt like we were on the precipice of giving these macro factors that's going on in our markets. As we've always talked about, Timberland is a local market from the standpoint of growth, rain, and everything that goes along with that. And we said we just needed a little bit of tension. And we ended up having double digit this year, given the factors that we experienced during 2021. And, Buck, I think you're very constructive in the housing side. We talk about that lost decade of housing and the aging housing stock and the work from home, as I think you put it, untethered migration for workers coming from the city centers. And so you combine that with a growing economy and additional usage for mass timber. This really supports what the mills are doing. They're relocating the capital down to the U.S. South. We're seeing mill expansions that go along with that. You've seen growth drain. You've got to remember, in our marketplace, we've had a very healthy market, even during, you know, not really seeing product price appreciation, but you've seen trees being drawn down during that period of time. And so when you have pulpwood and strong lumber operations, you weren't too far from really getting the type of product price appreciation where we have today. And so, and Buck, on the other side, we really get a lot of questions on the supply side. And I think it's important to note, when you take a look at the U.S. South, of the timberland ownership, 30% is really corporate TMOs. The remainder is either in public lands or private landowners. And the private landowners make a majority of that remaining acreage. And inside of that, we end up doing a lot of math here, but 75% of that southern acres that's owned by private landowners is less than 20 acres. So you sit there and say, well, geez, take a look at these growth drains. A lot of that is as a result of these private landowners that are harvesting well less than what they're getting on a growth basis. And so So the supply side, we believe, especially on a delivered wood model, we have good visibility given these macro factors that gives us the confidence in really taking a look at what we expect, really this double-digit gain going into 2021. And the real question is becoming what's the duration of the housing need? What's the duration of, you know, how does mass timber play into this? And how does the environmental aspects and the building codes and everything else combine to these things? We really feel like we're on the front end of something really special. Are we going to get to this $60, $70 saw logs? Well, the log size is different than it used to be, but never say never. But so from that standpoint, I think we're really on the front end of this by demonstrating what we got last year and the conviction we have going into this year. Todd, is there anything, any other antidotes you can talk about at the mill level?

You know, really, and that's exactly where it is, Brian, is that you think about where the capital has been placed. You know, Buck, you look back 18, 19 years, all the capital that came into the Southeast and a big portion of that, as we've talked about, really sits in and around our holdings. All of that is coming online. So that demand tension that's in the markets we operate in is really helping bolster our position and giving us our conviction moving forward. You have, as Brian touched on, this is already in the tightest growth to drain basin really in the country. In addition to not just the production from The mill side, you also have over the last year, year and a half, you've seen some of the contractor attrition that has taken place. And so it's made a little bit tougher in order to get product to the facilities. And therefore, that's additional tension that's helped with the pricing outlook that we have. And that helps us, too, because of our delivered wood model and the way we can leverage that and also being flexible with the stumpage sales we have. So all these things coming together are helping build a nice outlook for us.

That's great. Extremely detailed and helpful color, guys. Thank you very much for that. That's great. A question maybe on the supply side. Going to that kind of at the midpoint, the 1.7 million tonnage harvest volume, can you help me just understand how – you mentioned that that's a sustainable number. I'm just curious, is that – how many years into the future – is that sustainable at the kind of the 1.7 million, um, numbered or does it, does it grow from there? Does it need to come down at all? I'm just, you know, trying to walk through the math, I guess, in terms of, uh, you know, the current acreage position of the company times the, you know, call it the 39 tons per acre that you have stocked on the, on the land right now. So it gives you what, you know, a little over 14 million tons on the, on the land right now. So, um, Help me understand how sustainable the $1.7 million is for how many years in the future.

Sure, Buck. So that number, that's right in the middle of what we're looking at, the $1.6, $1.8. So you'll be in that range going forward. You can look at that over kind of a 10-year period. There'll be fluctuation year to year, but on average, you're looking at that level. And really from a From the productivity basis, you know, you look at it on a kind of a tons per acre per year, if you look into that. So we're in that four and a half, five tons per acre per year growth. That's about what your harvest works out to. So we're able to look at that as even flow going forward with a mix similar to what we're seeing today in that, you know, 45, 50% pulpwood, salt timber kind of mix, if you will. And so that volume that you're looking at today could, you know, that 39 tons per acre merge, that will go up over a period of time year to year depending on the number of acres that come into play because you have in-growth that has to be factored in there as well. And so all of those parts, you might see some fluctuation of that. We could go 38. We could move up to 41. Again, recognizing we don't have a forest that's been in place for over 100 years and so that everything is just perfectly leveled out and regulated. This has been built up over time, and so you're working through different vintages to get more to that run rate level, if you will. And so that's kind of what we're working with.

So, Buck, if you think your model is complicated as a result from your financial model, you come in here and do a growth yield model that goes along with thousands of plots with thousands of stems that go along with different geographical considerations that go along with that. And so we come out to you with a nice simple number of 1.6 to 1.8.

Mad respect for the modeling skills, guys, so I appreciate the color. Thanks again, and good luck.

Yep. Thanks, Bob.

Again, if you have a question, please press star, then 1. Our next question comes from Craig Cucera with B. Reilly FBR. You may now go ahead.

Hey, good morning, guys. You mentioned your guidance doesn't include monetizing any of the environmental components of the portfolio, such as mitigation credits or perhaps solar, but can you give us a sense of how much incremental value those might be worth in a sale?

Yeah. Hey, Craig. This is Brian. Good morning. Thanks for joining us. From our standpoint, we did talk about back in October that it represented approximately 20% of our cash flow into the future. Really, the carbon aspect of it can be the largest element into that. While solar has the closest front end to it, and we talked a little bit about what the dynamics and economics can be something along with that, carbon is not too dissimilar from that opportunity, looking at some of actually our less productive properties that can actually operate under carbon sequestration contracts that can generate revenues in excess of what we would generate on a net timber revenue basis. That's kind of the scale that we're thinking about. Some of it is still relatively early stage, especially as it relates to carbon, but we've been actively involved in exploring opportunities with that. Todd, maybe you want to expand a little bit more as we think about carbon.

Absolutely. Still a little bit early stages, but we are actively reviewing the portfolio right now. We've engaged a third-party consultant we're out looking at. We'll begin actually cruising and inventorying of potential stands for the program. And then we'll have an idea of what the potential credits could be associated with that part of the portfolio. Again, it's not something that we're going to include the entire footprint in. This has to be something that works in conjunction with our daily operating business as well. And so we'll have a better feel for that kind of mid-year, if you will. And then hopefully something call it six to nine months down the road, we might be able to begin to see some monetization of this.

Okay, great. And just one more for me, just circling back to the price increases in the fourth quarter, which were clearly pretty robust. You mentioned your expectation of maybe 10% to 15% this year. Are you seeing that level of price and power trending here in the first quarter, or is that really just an expectation occurring later in 2022? Right.

Right, you cut out there just a minute. I think your question was are we seeing that trend up into Q1, and the answer is yes. Q1 could be a pretty strong quarter for us overall, and so you'll see some seasonality, I think, throughout the year, somewhat similar to what we saw in 21. We came out of first quarter a little bit stronger than expectation, and then that moderated down a little bit going into the third quarter, and then it built back up. But the main thing is that the fundamental drivers were there the entire time, and we were able to hold on to and maintain a majority of the uplift that we'd received, and that's carrying over into the first quarter and anticipate that being the case going forward.

Okay, thanks.

Thanks, Greg.

That concludes our Q&A session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Brian Davis for any closing remarks.

Thanks, Anthony. Well, as you can tell by this call, we're very excited about 2022. We really look forward to posting some great numbers and some great activity for our investors this coming year, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.