2/11/2025

speaker
Conference Operator

Hello and welcome to the CurbLine Properties Corp fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session, and if you would like to ask a question during this time, please press star one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to turn the conference over to Stephanie Rausta-Perez, Vice President of Capital Markets. You may begin.

speaker
Stephanie Rausta-Perez
Vice President of Capital Markets

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to CurbLine Properties' fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Chief Executive Officer David Lukes and Chief Financial Officer Connor Fennerty. In addition to the press release distributed this morning, we have posted our quarterly financial supplement and slide presentation on our website at CurbLine.com, which are intended to support our prepared remarks during today's call. Please be aware that certain of our statements today may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Additional information may be found in our earnings press release and in our filings of the SEC, including our registration statement on Form 10 and our quarterly report on Form 10Q. In addition, we will be discussing non-GAAP financial measures on today's call. including FFO, operating FFO, and same property net operating income. Descriptions and reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in today's quarterly financial supplement and investor presentation. At this time, it is my pleasure to introduce our Chief Executive Officer, David Lukes.

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, and welcome to CurbLine Properties' fourth quarter 2024 conference call, our first as a standalone public company. I'd like to start by thanking all of my colleagues at both CurbLine and SiteCenters for their tremendous efforts to get us here today. Their work allowed us to unlock a differentiated growth company capable of generating double-digit earnings and cash flow growth well above the REIT average for a number of years to come. This growth is driven by the economics of the convenience property type, which is our exclusive focus, the large opportunity set in front of us, and our unmatched balance sheet that is aligned with the company's business plan. Given this is our first call, I'll start with an overview of the convenience sector and its unique elements, and then share with you our vision for continuing to dominate this attractive subsector and its substantial addressable market. I'll conclude with some comments on operations, and then Connor will talk about fourth quarter results and outlook for 2025. We began investing in convenience assets now over six years ago. recognizing the strong financial performance of the small format asset class both within the site center's portfolio and the broader retail real estate industry. Tenant retention was high, credit was strong and diversified, and the CapEx load was extremely low on a relative and absolute basis. Importantly, mobile phone geolocation data was also emerging during this period as a sophisticated new tool that we could utilize to identify, underwrite, and provide hard facts around investment opportunities. Their traditional real estate underwriting of boots on the ground market knowledge became supplemented by data analytics that allowed us a window into tenant performance and customer utilization of the small format property sector. Retail and service tenants for their part are also using more sophisticated site selection tools based on consumer location data. These tenants recognize that a significant portion of consumer spending is not only going shopping but also running errands. These quick trips to a local convenience center are highly profitable for the tenants but need to be, in fact, convenient. In other words, tenants are willing to pay higher and higher rents to secure a superior and convenient location that's more profitable and that is driving demand for our simple and flexible spaces. Growing demand for the right locations in our property type has produced two noteworthy financial outcomes. First, the capital efficiency of the business is superior to many other retail formats and is especially important as capital has become more expensive and valuable. Desirable small format space not only has high tenant retention rates, but is also inexpensive to prepare for the next tenant. When compared to larger buildings that require significant adaptations, and longer construction periods, the capital efficiency of our simple business is unique. In other words, less capital is needed to generate the same organic growth as the rest of the retail real estate industry and helps generate compounding cash flow growth for CurbLine. To that point, in the fourth quarter, CapEx as a percentage of NOI for CurbLine was just over 5%, which led to over $25 million of retained cash before distributions despite the fact that NOI was just $26 million. As curb scales, this retained cash flow will increase, providing a durable source of capital that is outsized relative to the company's size and boosting earnings and cash flow growth. Second, the sector has kept up with inflation remarkably well. Lease durations in the curb line portfolio are generally shorter when compared with properties with an anchor. And given the aforementioned tailwinds, and the supply-demand imbalance, it provides an opportunity to drive rent growth. In other words, this is a renewals business where we can capture growing market rents with little landlord capital or downtime as most tenants are renewing leases since there is a shortage of high-quality convenience real estate in suburban communities and steady demand. All of these factors are flowing through into CurbLine's operating metrics with 2024 same-property NOI growth of 5.8%, 26% blended straight line leasing spreads, and our expectation that same property NOI growth will average greater than 3% for the three-year period ending in 2026. Shifting to the investment side, the positive attributes of capital efficiency and strong top line growth that I just described led us to explore the addressable market for convenience properties six or so years ago. We now have years of transaction data under our belts and arguably own the largest high quality portfolio of convenience assets in the United States with over 3 million square feet of inventory. Despite that fact, what we own today represents just over one quarter of 1% of the 950 million square feet of total U.S. inventory, according to ICSE, providing a significant runway to scale and grow CurbLine. In fact, the addressable market is so large that we see a long path of growth that can stay focused on high quality convenience sector without needing to broaden our simple and focused strategy. For context, each week our team is reviewing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of deals. Not every asset will be a fit for CurbLine, but we believe there is a significant opportunity set of properties that do share common characteristics with our existing portfolio, including excellent visibility, access, and compelling economics, highlighted by a broad available tenant universe and limited capital needs. One of the key differentiating aspects of the CurbLine spin-off was matching the balance sheet with the business plan. With over $625 million of cash and over $1 billion of liquidity at year end, we have ample capacity to scale. We are confident that we can close on $500 million of convenience acquisitions per year, which equates to around $125 million per quarter. We've significantly exceeded that pace with 351 million of acquisitions in the last six months. While the pace of closings will not always be evenly spaced, our current pipeline of awarded deals that are working through contract and diligence stands at just under $200 million. Since our spinoff and subsequent marketing efforts, we have seen a large number of brokers and sellers proactively engage with us, a change from the pre-spin environment. This situation allows us to work directly with sellers on a timeline and a structure that works best for both parties and further supports our confidence in meeting or exceeding our annual target of $500 million in external acquisitions of high-quality convenience properties. That was a key driver in the fourth quarter where we acquired 20 properties for just over $206 million with the assets concentrated in the affluent markets that CurbLine currently operates including Atlanta, Houston, Denver, Los Angeles, and Phoenix. We also made acquisitions in wealthy submarkets, such as Kansas City, Memphis, and Minneapolis, which share the key characteristics we seek and where we hope we can scale long-term. Average household incomes for the fourth quarter investments were nearly $140,000, with a weighted average lease rate of over 96%. highlighting our focus on acquiring properties where renewals and lease bumps drive growth without significant capex. Ending with operations, not surprisingly, overall demand for space remains strong, driven by a mixture of existing retailers and service tenants expanding into key suburban markets, along with new concepts competing for the same space. Recent new and renewal deals include several first-to-portfolio and recurring national tenants, such as CABA, Panda Express, Chase, the UPS Store, LensCrafters, and Comcast, with notable activity from service tenants, banks, fitness operators, and quick service restaurants. Before turning the call over to Connor, I want to again thank everyone at CurbLine, along with the team at Site Centers, for their work to complete the spinoff of CurbLine properties. It took the work of our entire organization to get here, and I couldn't be more optimistic about the opportunity ahead for CurbLine and our ability to generate compelling stakeholder value. And with that, I'll turn it over to Connor.

speaker
Connor Fennerty
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, David. I'll start with fourth quarter earnings and operations before shifting to the company's 2025 outlook and concluding with the balance sheet. Fourth quarter results were ahead of budget due to better-than-expected operations and higher-than-expected acquisition volume. Outside of that outperformance on the NOI side, there were no other material surprises or call-outs for the quarter, which speaks to the simplicity of the CurbLine business plan. In terms of operations, leasing volume and aggregate was sequentially higher, and I'd expect to continue to tick higher in terms of volume as the portfolio scales. However, with this small but growing denominator, operating metrics will remain volatile and be heavily impacted by acquisitions. That said, overall leasing activity remains elevated, and we remain encouraged by the depth of demand for space, which is likely to translate into TTM spreads over the course of the year consistent with 2024. It's important to note that CURB's leasing spreads include all units, including those that have been vacant for more than 12 months, with the only exclusions related to first generation space and units vacant at the time of acquisition. Same property NOI was up 5.8% for the year and above the top end of the guidance range of 3.5% to 5.5% without performance driven by a host of factors. Importantly, this growth was generated by limited capital expenditures, with fourth quarter capex as a percentage of NOI of just 5%. Moving to our outlook for 2025, we are introducing OFFO guidance in a range between $0.97 per share and $1.01 per share. Underpinning that range is, one, approximately $500 million of investments funded roughly 50-50 with debt and cash on hand, Two, a 4% return on cash with interest income declining over the course of the year as cash is invested. And three, G&A of roughly $32 million, which includes fees paid to site centers as part of the shared services agreement. You will note that in the fourth quarter of 2024, we recorded a gross up of $500,000 of additional non-cash G&A expense which is offset by $500,000 of non-cash other income. This grows up, which is a function of the shared service agreement, nets to zero net income and will continue as long as the agreement is in place and is excluded from the aforementioned G&A target. In terms of same property NOI, we are forecasting growth of approximately 2.8% at the midpoint in 2025, but there are a few important things to call out. Similar to our leasing spreads, The pool is growing but small and is comping off of 2024's outperformance. Additionally, CurbLine's same property pool is set annually, so it includes only assets owned for at least 12 months as of December 31st, 2024. This results in a larger non-same property pool, which was roughly 33% of fourth quarter NOI and is growing at a faster rate than the same property pool. To highlight this point, the occupancy for the entire portfolio was 93.9% at year end versus the same property pool of 95.1%. This relative gap is expected to compress in the first half of the year, delivering significant organic growth. Additional details on 2025 guidance and expectations can be found on page nine of the earnings slides. Ending on the balance sheet, CurbLine was spun off with a unique capital structure that is positioned to execute on its business plan and differentiate itself from the largely private buyer universe acquiring convenience properties. Specifically, at year end, the company had approximately $626 million of cash on hand, no debt, a $100 million undrawn delayed draw term loan, and full availability under its $400 million revolving credit facility. We expect to fund the term loan in the first quarter of the year providing additional capacity liquidity, and then will utilize additional sources of capital to fund the company's substantial growth profile. The changes in the capital structure, to David's point, are expected to lead to significant earnings and cash flow growth for a number of years, well in excess of the REIT average. With that, I'll turn it back to David.

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Connor. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

speaker
Conference Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your questions, simply press star one again. Please ensure you're not on speakerphone and that your phone is not on mute when called upon. Thank you. Your first question comes from Chris Mailman with Citi. Your line is open.

speaker
Chris Mailman
Analyst, Citi

Hey, good morning. David, you talked about kind of the inbounds you're now getting from brokers and sellers here. after you guys closed the transaction and that, you know, kind of led to a higher pace of acquisitions and closings. Could you just talk a little bit about, um, the, the pricing expectations right now that everyone knows you guys have a couple hundred million of cash, um, of where you're kind of pricing and underwriting deals today versus, you know, maybe six to 12 months ago and you guys are still part of site.

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Hey, morning, Craig. I guess the first comment is that this property type historically has been brokered by a lot of small and regional brokers and even some of the smaller kind of pods within the larger brokerage community. I think there's definitely been a broader spotlight on the subsector in the last 12 months. Um, and that's just caused a lot more dialogue. Um, so we tend to get more inbounds from, from teams that, that handle this type of product, which just allows for a lot more visibility into, um, product that we may not have seen a year or two ago. Um, in terms of pricing, you know, it's, it's interesting. I'd say in conclusion, the cap rates are probably flat to down a little bit. Um, but the number of, uh, deals that we're seeing has grown fairly substantially. So I guess the net result is the, um, The unlevered IRR expectations that we have haven't really changed a whole lot. I would say assets where cap rates have compressed, it's offset by the fact that market rents are growing. And that kind of feeds into the same IRR math.

speaker
Chris Mailman
Analyst, Citi

And where were you guys in a blended kind of cap rate going in or stabilized, however you want to report it, for the deals you guys closed the fourth quarter?

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, for what we've closed, you know, company to date, fourth quarter and first quarters thus far, we're six and a quarter.

speaker
Chris Mailman
Analyst, Citi

Okay. Um, and I guess just one more question on the, uh, the underwriting here, cause you guys put in the deck, you guys were about 5% of our CapEx is about 5% of NOI kind of, what was that on traditional grocery anchored? Um, and how does that kind of impact what you guys are willing to pay them going in to get to the same sort of levered IRR? Yeah.

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

Well, first of all, the 5% CapEx load in the fourth quarter was, remember, it was one quarter of a new company with a fairly small portfolio. So I would take that with some grain of salt. Our previous decks that we've had out at the investment community have shown that the subsector is more like mid to high single digits. So I do think that's going to bump around a little bit based on the pool. But it's definitely a sub-10% CapEx load asset class. And historically, I think anchored retail is traditionally north of 20%. If you add redevelopment, Into that, you're seeing capex loads that can far exceed the 20s and get into the 30s or the 40s. Mathematically, it should mean that cap rates should be lower for this asset class to generate the same unlevered IRR. I think you have seen that in the last couple of years. It's a subsector that used to trade in the 7s and 8s, and now it's in the mid to low 6s. Whether it stops here or whether it keeps going down, Craig, it's a really good question, but it's just interesting to note that the market rents keep growing the renewal spreads keep increasing and the capex load is staying the same. So, you know, arguably we can pay more to achieve the same unlevered IRR.

speaker
Chris Mailman
Analyst, Citi

Then one last quick one. I know the whole point of the strategies to not have anchor tenants or really lower that exposure. And again, I know it's a smaller portfolio today, but just looking through the top tenant list, right, you have Norsham Rack, Williams-Sonoma, Total Wine & More, and some of those are bigger boxes. And how should we think about you guys mixing some of that type of product in going forward versus, you know, the smaller six to 6,000 or less kind of tenant sizes?

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, it's a great question, Craig. I think you should assume that we will be mostly small shop tenants. It just so happens that, you know, good real estate attracts a lot of different national tenants. And sometimes if we see a property that we really like, it happens to have an anchor tenant and we're comfortable with that anchor. or worth a couple with the rent that that anchor is paying and what a small shop would pay in a back fold, we'd be happy to make that investment. It's never going to be a large portion of the company, but it's sometimes unavoidable if you want to buy high quality real estate.

speaker
Chris Mailman
Analyst, Citi

Great. Thank you.

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Greg.

speaker
Kevin Kim
Analyst, Truist Bank

Thanks, man.

speaker
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Flores Von Dycom with Compass Point. Your line is open.

speaker
Flores Von Dycom
Analyst, Compass Point

Hey, morning, guys. So I will, I guess my question is, I noticed your NOI margins and expense recoveries. It's a quarter, I know, and you're a small company, and the same store pool is not the whole portfolio yet, still relatively small. But your NOI margins declined by 200 basis points, and your recovery ratio, I think, also declined by 360 basis points. Anything that you can point us to that caused that, and should we not be worried about that?

speaker
Connor Fennerty
Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Floris. Good morning. It's Connor. So the fourth quarter was impacted by the O&M reclass. So prior to the spinoff, the metrics you're referring to didn't include any expense that we allocated from G&A to OPEX. And so in the fourth quarter, we started that kind of reclassification of expenses. You're right, on an apples-to-apples basis, it would look like recoveries or margins went down. But if you look at the same store pool, which is a better reflection of actual property-level operating metrics, you'll see recoveries were up year-over-year, the margins were up year-over-year, which I think is consistent with what we expect over time.

speaker
Flores Von Dycom
Analyst, Compass Point

Great. Maybe also, I noticed, I mean, if I look at two of your biggest markets, You know, Miami, I think the average size of your asset is like 75,000 square feet. In Atlanta, it's like 29,000 square feet. Where's your sweet spot and any particular reason why there's such a wide discrepancy in two of your biggest markets?

speaker
Connor Fennerty
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, for us not to sound like a broken record, it's a very small pool. So to Craig's question, you can have one or two tenants or one or two properties skew a certain market, skew a sub-market. To your point, we do have a larger asset in Miami, and one of them has anchors, or excuse me, two of them have anchors, which, again, will skew those metrics. I don't think there's a right sweet spot that we think through. To David's point, we're trying to find the best dirt and the best submarkets. At times, that's a 4,000 square foot unit or building, excuse me. Other times, it could be 20 or 25,000. If you look, our average unit size or average property size, excuse me, is about 30,000 feet. My guess is that's a pretty consistent or stable number over time as we scale. Great.

speaker
Flores Von Dycom
Analyst, Compass Point

My last question, maybe, is on the dividend, if you can touch on your dividend policy and what you expect to pay out over the next year or two.

speaker
Connor Fennerty
Chief Financial Officer

Sure, Flores. Obviously, it's a board decision. Management has always recommended, when you think back, DDR, site centers, et cetera, we've always recommended the minimum in terms of taxable minimum, but again, it's a board-level decision. There are some interesting, unique aspects of CurbLine that are different than other peers or different than peers that have been in public for some time. The biggest one is just our tax depreciation shield in the sense that as we scale, that shield will grow. But in the near term, it's a smaller shield. The net result is we are closer probably to have a payout ratio, should the board accept their recommendation, closer to 75% than our preference, which would be high 60s, low 70s. But again, I don't think it'd be inconsistent in terms of management recommendation to the board versus site centers or the peer group. Thanks, Connor. You're welcome, Flores.

speaker
Conference Operator

The next question is from Ronald Camden of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

speaker
Ronald Camden
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hey, just two quick ones for the same store and a wide guide for 25. Just wondering if we could double click in terms of the assumptions for bad debt as well as occupancy gains.

speaker
Connor Fennerty
Chief Financial Officer

anything else you're willing to share sure hey ron it's connor good morning um so as we mentioned we continue to expect same store to average greater than three percent for the three-year period in 2024 to 2026. 2024 was 5.8 percent which was which was above our our prior guidance range for bad debt for 2025 the midpoint of the range is about 55 basis points um the only thing i would just just again caution again to sound like a broken record it is a very small pool so how you get to the low end really is related to move outs or unexpected move outs. There are no bankruptcies we're tracking or worried about. We have one TGIF. We don't have any exposure to Party City, big lots, you know, rattle off the folks in bankruptcy today. It really is a function of just a small pool and a couple of shops moving out. But as I mentioned, my prepared remarks were 95.1% commenced, which we think is a pretty good run rate for the pool going forward. But that just can lead to a little volatility over time, just given how small the denominator is.

speaker
Ronald Camden
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great, helpful. And then just going back to the acquisitions, look, we think this market could be 200, 300 billion in terms of activity or in terms of TAM, so clearly a long runway. But just wondering if you could provide just a little bit more details on sort of the competition and the cap rate trends and how that sort of played out versus your expectations. And you mentioned sort of the going in cap rate, but curious, is there sort of a target IRR uh, hurdle that, that you're also looking at.

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks. Sure. Good morning, Ron. It's David. Um, I would say that the, uh, the unlevered IRR expectations that we have have been fairly consistent and that they're high single digits. Um, you know, sometimes we're seven and a half, sometimes we're eight and a half, nine, but an unlevered basis, that's, uh, where we've been making investments. I think if, if you get into, um, other formats that have a lot more repositioning involved. That is one component of any sector is kind of the value-add component. Ours is a lot more oriented towards core real estate that I think is going to outperform in a recession. And the competition for core real estate that has low CapEx and high rent growth on market rents has been pretty fierce, and I would say has been getting more so. So cap rates have definitely come down. 50 to 75 basis points in the last three years, but I haven't really seen a whole lot of change in the last six to 12 months. I think if cap rates are coming in a little bit, it's likely that the rents are growing and that's causing the unaltered IRR expectations to be about the same. So competition is getting definitely more active than it was in the past couple of years. I would still say it's mostly local and regional private capital. We have not really bumped into a lot of institutional capital yet. Super helpful. That's it for me. Thank you.

speaker
Ronald Camden
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thanks, Ron.

speaker
Conference Operator

The next question is from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

speaker
Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Good morning, and thank you. So just a few questions here. First, David, you know, I think you outlined 500 million of acquisitions targeted for the year. Just sort of curious what the total pool of assets that you're looking at, the total pipeline, is it like a billion of deals, a billion and a half of deals? Just trying to understand how many deals come across your desk versus the ones that you actually look at versus the ones that you're successful in winning.

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, good morning, Alex. I would probably break it down into three categories, those that cross our desk, those that we decide to work on, and those that we end up trying to acquire. So I would say the ratio of what we're looking at is probably 10x what we buy. The ratio of what we spend time underwriting and decide to make an offer on is probably, you know, three or four x. And that's what's giving us a lot of confidence that there's plenty of room for us to grow in the subsector. I think the available subset is pretty large.

speaker
Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Okay. And then the next question is, you guys talked about sort of same store of 3%, maybe 3% or better, but you also spoke about the original impetus for the company that uh the annual growth rates the annual rent bumps are faster and more you know broader based across the tenants than traditional shopping centers so just trying to understand you know and you know I'm not the same store person but still it stands out there why wouldn't the same store metric be faster uh internally if you guys have better internal rent bumps than uh traditional open air

speaker
Connor Fennerty
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, it's Alex. It's Connor. I think we agree with the premise of your statement.

speaker
Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Okay, but it's still like I'm just trying to understand the 3% versus, you know, thinking it would be better if you guys are getting 3% or 4% annual bumps.

speaker
Connor Fennerty
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I mean, so on average, our annual bumps are just under 3%. They're kind of mid-2s, right? So we are, to my earlier comment, the same store pool as 95.1% commenced. So there's maybe a little bit of occupancy growth, but essentially the midpoint of our range is for 3% growth with no occupancy. And so if you think about that growth rate relative to peer group, which I'm assuming is the genesis of the question, we are doing better same store on an occupancy neutral basis. We also have no redevelopment pipeline to David's point. So the capital needed to generate that growth is substantially lower than I think the equivalent growth rates you're referencing. So it's a really good question. But effectively, the same store pool has little to no occupancy growth. And even despite that fact, we're still doing effectively 3% growth, which I think speaks to your question.

speaker
Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst, Piper Sandler

So kind of just sorry to follow up. You said, I think, like two and a half internal bumps. Recollection was that you guys were getting sort of 3% to 4% annual bumps. Was I mistaken in that or-

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

No, Alex, I think you're, it's David. I think when we're blending tenants that have options or tenants that have longer term leases, let's call it a Starbucks versus a tenant that has maybe two years left of term and they've got 3% annuals and they're going to get a big bump at the expiration of their term when they have no option. When you blend all of that together and you take out some credit loss assumption, that's what Connor's talking about. I think it's just a different category than saying, yes, when we sign leases, we generally have 3 plus percent rent escalations. But when you put in all the other algebraic formulas, I think you get down to just below 3%. Okay. Thank you for that. Well, what would materially change that, obviously, is market rent growth because it is a renewals business. So, yes, you're getting fixed rent bumps on most tenants that call at 3%. But as you can see from our disclosure, it's whenever you have a tenant that comes due with a shorter lease term and there's a renewal, and the market rents have been growing, so it does feel like the opportunity to overachieve that is definitely there. Okay, I appreciate that. Thanks, Alex.

speaker
Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst, Piper Sandler

Thanks.

speaker
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Michael Mueller with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.

speaker
Michael Mueller
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Yeah, hi. I guess first, what gets you to the low and high end of the same store NOI guy for 25, given that you have 55 basis points of bad debts at the midpoint? And you've talked about economic occupancy being fairly stable at 95.1%. Hey, Mike. It's Connor.

speaker
Connor Fennerty
Chief Financial Officer

Good morning. It really is just unbudgeted move outs. The only thing I would just qualify that as, even if we hit the low end of the same store guidance range, which is not our expectation, but it feels prudent given it's February 11th, that wouldn't push us to the low end of the FFO range. And so you think about like factors that matter for growth over the course of 25 and 26, it feels odd to say it, but same store is not the biggest driver. In fact, it's probably the fourth or fifth biggest driver in terms of what drives growth. So I don't want to downplay its importance, but given that it's just over 60% of the NOI pool, whereas if you look at the peer group or REITs and average, same store in general usually is 95 to 100% of NOI. So it's a little unique for us just given how we build up our pools and how we, just given the point we are in terms of our kind of life cycle of growth. But it's a little funny in that regard until we get bigger over time.

speaker
Michael Mueller
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Got it. And I guess that's a good segue to the second question. The overall portfolio economic occupancy rate of 93.9, obviously, you know, stuff you're buying is going into that. What do you think a timeline to get up to the same store level of 95 or 95.1 is? Is that a you know, a two-year process? Is it faster? Does it take longer?

speaker
Connor Fennerty
Chief Financial Officer

Materially faster. And so that was my point in the prepared remarks. The non-same-store pool will effectively be on top of the same-store pool within the first six months of the year. This is not, if you think about David's opening comments, you know, when we're back-selling tenants, we aren't, you know, repurposing space. It's one tenant that goes into the exact same space that the prior tenant is in. So there's very little downtime. There's less of this big S&O pipeline that you've seen with some of our peers. We shouldn't have that which I think, again, the same sort of pool, which is, you know, 95% commence and a lease rate of 95.9 or 96.1, that's a good spread, 100 basis points. We're never going to have this 400 basis point S&O pipeline that some of the peers have.

speaker
Flores Von Dycom
Analyst, Compass Point

Got it. Okay. Thank you.

speaker
Connor Fennerty
Chief Financial Officer

You're very welcome.

speaker
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Todd Thomas of KeyBank Capital Markets. Your line is open.

speaker
Todd Thomas
Analyst, KeyBank Capital Markets

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. When you announced the spin and since that time over the last year, the market was pricing in more rate cuts and perhaps a lower interest rate environment altogether. And now the market seems to be pricing in a higher for longer environment for a more extended period of time. Does that impact or change your capital raising or capital allocation strategy at all at the margin? How do you think about either side of the balance sheet moving forward?

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

If I'm understanding your question correctly, Todd, I would say that, remember, if there's higher for longer, what has happened is that cap rates may not have moved up according to what the forward curve would suggest, but market rents have. And so our allocation to purchasing properties where we think we can keep up with inflation or exceed inflation is still pretty strong, which puts us in a pretty happy place to be in this subsector. ability to keep up with inflation with this type of tenant roster, lack of downtime and lack of capex makes us even more convinced that it's a really good place to be in a higher for longer environment.

speaker
Todd Thomas
Analyst, KeyBank Capital Markets

Okay. And then, I mean, it sounds like your plan is to fund acquisitions, you know, 50-50 debt and equity. You know, is there any thought to, you know, tapping the equity markets at all during the year, you know, perhaps a little bit sooner rather than later, you know, to sort of maintain the balance sheet advantage that you have by locking in your cost of capital today and elongating the company's runway for investments?

speaker
Connor Fennerty
Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Todd, it's Connor. I would just say, remember, even if we used all of our cash, right, so $626 million remaining, we would still have no debt, and our balance sheet advantage would still be, you know, dramatic versus REITs overall or private investors, whatever it might be. So I'll start with that. The second point is on equity. The ATM is not an option until September this year. It's just a function of being a new public company. And we always look at our cost of capital, whether it's debt, whether it's equity, every day versus every opportunity we're looking at. So if there was an opportunity, whether it's debt or equity, we saw it and we had a compelling investment opportunity, I think we would look to that option. And there are a number of alternatives we could look for to raise capital today. I would just tell you, again, we're always looking at the source and the use. It's never just saying, here's the source, we like the price. But there's nothing in guidance today for call it an acceleration of capital investment or capital funded with equity. We'll just see how it plays out over the course of the year.

speaker
Todd Thomas
Analyst, KeyBank Capital Markets

Okay. And then just lastly, I'm just curious, I know you're, again, in sort of capital deployment mode and have the capacity on the balance sheet to fund your investments all on balance sheet, but I'm just curious where you stand on joint ventures. You were open to exploring partnerships previously for the right type of partners, the right type of investment timeframe and so forth. Is that something that you'd be open to at Curb in a way to further leverage your equity and maybe help accelerate sort of the increasing scale for the platform a little bit more quickly?

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

Todd, it's David. I would say that our happiness in a very simple strategy with a simple plan and a simple capital structure, it makes us very confident that we've got the right strategy right now. I think our desire to make that more complex would be extremely low. We've had a number of investors talk about the idea of doing something together. I think, frankly, we have a great runway ahead of us. We've got a balance sheet that matches our plan, and so I just don't see the use for making our platform any more complicated than it is today.

speaker
Todd Thomas
Analyst, KeyBank Capital Markets

Okay. All right. Thank you.

speaker
Kevin Kim
Analyst, Truist Bank

Thanks, Don.

speaker
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Paulina Rojas with Green Street. Your line is open.

speaker
Paulina Rojas
Analyst, Green Street

Good morning. You mentioned expecting to close the position of about $500 million a year. And in one queue alone, it closed around $200 million. So your guidance is conservative, which is likely prudent. But my question is, are there any specific factors that lead you to believe that strong activity in four queues shouldn't be extrapolated into 2025?

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Paulina. It's David. It's a little hard to hear you, so I'm going to take a crack at it. You can tell me if we missed anything. Yeah, we recognize the fact that we have earmarked $500 million of external acquisitions as our target annually. And the first quarter out of the gate, we exceeded that. So I think what you're asking is, why can't we simply extrapolate the fourth quarter? And I would just say, we've been public for 120 days. And during that 120 days, we happen to have a quarter in which we closed a lot of real estate. We don't really know what the eventual pipeline should be or will be. And so I think our comfort level saying $500 million still seems like an achievable goal that we're confident with. Could we exceed that? We probably could. But are we comfortable with $500? Yes, we are. And I still think that keeps us in the acquisition mode of maintaining precision on high-quality properties.

speaker
Paulina Rojas
Analyst, Green Street

Thank you. Your strategy is really centered around owning assets located in high-traffic intersections and affluent suburbs. So as you evaluate potential acquisitions, do you have sort of hard benchmarks in terms of minimum household income or daily traffic for the centers that you're considering?

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

Is that really interesting? It's a really interesting question. I would say, Paulina, a couple of years ago, we had a fairly simple chart as to what we were looking for to sort through deal flow. Because as per one of the previous questions, if we're looking at 10 times the number of assets that we bought, it's a lot of real estate to underwrite. And so we started with a chart of what we thought were the most important metrics. What we've learned over time is that they're all important, but they're not necessarily a hard yes or a hard no. If I look at what we've eventually bought over the years, household income is very important. There's no question that it does better during a recession. There's just a lot more errand running. There's a lot more discretionary spending, which means there's more types of tenants that want to be in those submarkets. So we're more focused on the zip code or the TAP score, if you'd like to use that, something that tells us the consumer health in that market. And that might be in a relatively small city and it might be in a large city. Um, the second thing we tend to look at is, is traffic, um, driving by. And I think the average daily traffic on the road is a really important fundamental differentiator. You can buy unanchored strip centers that are buried inside of communities with low traffic counts, but they just don't generate the tenant demand of having that same property type up against, um, you know, uh, a road that has a strong traffic intersection. So I would say between demographics and, um, daily traffic on the intersection, those are probably two of the most critical.

speaker
Conference Operator

Thank you.

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Melina.

speaker
Conference Operator

Your next question comes from Kevin Kim with Truist Bank. Your line is open.

speaker
Kevin Kim
Analyst, Truist Bank

Hey, thanks. This is Kevin. Just a quick question on GNA. How much more GNA is being allocated to operating expenses than previously? When we go back to the models, we want to make sure that we can reconcile our previous estimates.

speaker
Connor Fennerty
Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Kevin. It's Connor. So it's $300,000 of G&A is allocated to OPEX in the fourth quarter. That's consistent with our guidance from the September 17th pre-spin-off deck. And that number should be pretty static over the life of the shared services agreement. Now, once that agreement's over, you could see the composition change a little bit at the margin. But in terms of total G&A, it's a pretty static number. That's for the quarter, right? That's a quarter. Yeah, I'm sorry. You're exactly right. So it's $300,000 per quarter, about $1.2 million per year.

speaker
Kevin Kim
Analyst, Truist Bank

And can you help me understand? I understand the expense going to site, but the income accounting for it? Where does that stem from?

speaker
Connor Fennerty
Chief Financial Officer

You're referring to the gross up? Yeah. Yeah. So effectively, it's the value of the services we're receiving from site versus the value of the fees paid to them. And the gross up is as horrifically tortured calculation to compare the two effective value streams. That number will move around over time depending on the relative size of both curb and site and the services provided in both directions. So that's why we've excluded it from guidance, G&A guidance going forward. The critical piece is to flag and understand is the net income is zero per quarter. So there might be quarters where the gross up expense is a million dollars and the gross up income is a million dollars, but it's always a push in terms of net impact to CURB. Post-termination of the shared service agreement, that goes away. So it's this unfortunate, tortured accounting noise that we have for the first couple years, the life of CURB, and then it goes away. But again, I would just reiterate, it nets to a zero over the course of each quarter and year. Okay. Thank you. You're welcome.

speaker
Conference Operator

This concludes the question and answer session. I'll turn the call to David Lukes for closing remarks.

speaker
David Lukes
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you everyone for joining. We'll talk to you next quarter.

speaker
Conference Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

-

-