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Clearway Energy, Inc.
11/4/2025
Hello, and welcome to the Clearway Energy, Inc.' 's third quarter 2025 conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand has been raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Senior Director, Investor Relations, Akhil Marsh.
Thank you for taking the time to join Clearway Energy, Inc.' 's third quarter call. With me today are Craig Cornelius, the company's president and CEO, and Sarah Rubenstein, the company's CFO. Before we begin, I'd like to quickly note that today's discussions will contain forward-looking statements which are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. After results may differ materially. Please review the safe harbor in today's presentation as well as the risk factors in our SEC files. In addition, we will refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures for information regarding our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. please refer to today's presentation. In particular, please note that we may refer to both offered and committed transactions in today's oral presentation and also may discuss such transactions during the question and answer portion of today's conference. Please refer to the Safe Harbor in today's presentation for a description of the categories of potential transactions and related risk, contingencies, and uncertainties. With that, I'll hand it over to Craig.
Thank you, Akhil. We appreciate everyone joining us today. Clearway is well positioned to deliver on its near and long-term growth objectives as it proves out the inherent strengths of its enterprise business model and harnesses the advantages of being a well-prepared supplier of choice amidst an emerging renaissance in the U.S. power sector. For 2025, we've narrowed our financial guidance to the top half of our originally set range, following a strong third quarter performance and the addition of well-performing dropdowns to our operating fleet. Out to 2027, we have line of sight to delivering our increased CAFTI per share target of 270 or better, building from the successful execution of multiple acquisitions and sound preparation of multiple repowerings and sponsor-developed drop-downs. And today, we're also establishing a 2030 financial target, setting a CAPTI per share goal of $2.90 to $3.10 per share, which translates to a 7% to 8% growth taker from our 2025 guidance midpoint. reflecting the extensive progress we've made across our growth pathways and the confidence we have in their prospective success in the years to come. Growth in both the medium and long term reflects the strong traction we've made in supporting the energy needs of our country's digital infrastructure build-out and reindustrialization. We expect this to be a core driver of Clearway's growth outlook well into the 2030. To fund this abundant opportunity set, as we've noted in the past, we'll increasingly use retained cash flow as a funding source while prudently using debt and modest equity issuances to extend our position of strength. To that end, our long-term payout ratio beyond 2030 is targeted to be less than 70%, a goal we are targeting while continuing our commitment to maintain competitive DPS growth in the long term. With the robust growth trajectory we see ahead through this decade and into the next, today's materials are geared towards giving you more visibility into where that growth will come from and how it will be conservatively funded, with the goal of allowing the investment community to value Clearway with full recognition of what we see ahead. Turning to slide six. To reiterate key strengths of our enterprise, We have a proven track record at both Clearway Energy Inc. and Clearway Group of being best-in-class owners and developers of energy assets here in the United States. Clearway Energy Inc. offers a total return value proposition within the listed infrastructure space that's superior to most peers. Driven by our diverse and sizable operating portfolio, steady cash flows, and are advantaged position to deliver growth across multiple pathways. Clearway Group has grown its late-stage pipeline by four times since 2017 and benefits from strategic relationships with customers and suppliers, putting it in a prime position to advance and offer attractive projects to Clearway Energy, Inc. for years to come. This success and strong alignment between the two companies that make up our enterprise have been key to our enterprise's growth over 12 years of strong and reliable history. As you'll see in more detail in the coming slides, this combination of enterprise alignment and bountiful accretive growth opportunities underpins our confidence in meeting our growth targets in 2030 and beyond. Turning to slide seven. Turning to the building blocks of our growth outlook through 2030, we have a clear line of sight secured by successful commercialization of substantially all development projects planned for CWEN funding in the 2026 and 2027 COD vintages. Attractive CAFTI yields are expected for these projects through long-term and favorably structured revenue contracts, secured equipment supply, and clear paths to permits and interconnection. Looking further out, Clearway Group's development program in 2028 and 2029 includes a total project volume of over 6.5 gigawatts, far in excess of what is needed to meet the top end of our 2030 goal. Focusing on the approximately 4.5 gigawatts of late-stage projects planned for 2028 and 2029, We expect those projects to target recurring asset CAPTI of $40,000 per megawatt or greater, and to enable CWIN investment at CAPTI yields on average of 10.5% or better, in line with the current market recently commercialized projects and recent drop-down offers. Equating to approximately $180 million of recurring asset CAPTI potential, That opportunity set is substantially larger than what is required to meet the top end of our 2030 CAPTI per share goal. Turning to slide eight. Our enterprise is advantageously positioned for growth well beyond 2030, given Clearway Group's best-in-class development pipeline and the technological and market resilience of its embedded projects. Projects are being developed at increasing scale in response to power market demand. and will be commercialized with CWIN's growth objectives and investment mandate front of mind. As discussed in past quarters, our pipeline has been built for resilience through massive safe harbor investments, prescient geographic positioning, and thoughtful procurement. Clearway has also established itself as a proven supplier of choice for utilities and hyperscalers to meet mission-critical data center demand. with 1.8 gigawatts of PPAs executed and awarded to support data center loads during the last year. From this position, and using preexisting development and operating assets as a nucleus for its work, Clearway Group is now developing multi-technology generation complexes to serve gigawatt class co-located data centers across five states. with the potential for these developments to create a creative investment opportunities for Clearway Energy Inc. in the early 2030s. Configurations for these complexes range from approximately one gigawatt up to almost five gigawatts across multiple technologies, with commercial operations stages coming online as soon as 2028 and spanning into the 2030s. The ultimate design and capacity of these complexes is subject to a number of factors, But if the enterprise is successful at bringing online just one of these large multi-generation complexes, a single one alone could allow CWEN to meet its growth objectives for multiple years in the 2030s while aligning with our capital allocation framework. Given our growth outlook and funding position, it is our view that the market could more significantly value the longevity and diversified enabling pathways of our growth outlook beyond 2030. To give our investors the ability to see that future growth potential as clearly as we do, we're aiming now to provide more visibility into the illustrative financial building blocks we plan to use to deliver durable growth well into the 2030. As much as other power companies, if not more so, we expect that the location of our assets and their financial structures will allow our operating portfolio to benefit from rising power prices in the decade ahead. As our initial PPAs expire, our projects will be free of project-level debt, which we structure to amortize at the conclusion of PPAs, making a higher power price scenario a potential tailwind. for recurring annual cash flow contribution. Additionally, while we plan with conservative assumptions for corporate and project refinancings, opportunistic execution may result in upside relative to our planned expectations. We have routinely demonstrated execution of project and corporate maturities at financing costs favorable to assumptions we incorporate into our long-term goals. We are cognizant of the many moving pieces that determine our operating portfolio's earnings power year to year. But over the long term, we believe the environment is shaping up to allow us to deliver low single-digit annual growth in cash flow from our existing portfolio. On top of this, we will have the opportunity to invest in growth across multiple redundant pathways in fleet enhancement, sponsor-developed projects, and third-party asset M&A. allocating capital across those pathways based on which investments will create the highest risk-adjusted return for Clearway Energy, Inc. By deploying 30% or more of a growing stream of retained cash flows towards growth at CAPTI yields greater than 10%, we can achieve another 3 to 5 percentage points of annual growth in the long term. Finally, we can in the long term deliver at least 1% to 3% in compounding growth in TAPTI per share through new project investments that are funded with corporate capital raised through the prudent issuance of corporate debt instruments and equity. Our track record has demonstrated the ability to create projects that deliver meaningful accretion relative to our costs for corporate capital. we have demonstrated the ability to sustain that accretion across multiple market cycles for over a decade. And we also have demonstrated a consistent commitment to prudence in the way we manage our balance sheet and judiciousness in the way we plan for and execute equity issuances. Through this simple and sustainable model, and with an abundance of attractive growth opportunities ahead of us, We look forward to delivering our long-term growth target of 5 to 8 plus percentage growth well into the 2030s. Turning to slide 11. We have continued to make progress across our redundant growth pathways, methodically executing on our prior commitments and extending our roadmap for growth with our trademark development craftsmanship. Our fleet optimization initiatives continue to strengthen our ability to achieve our 2030 target. Since last quarter, Mount Storm started construction, a new long-term PPA was advanced for San Juan Mesa, and safe harbor investments were made to enable two additional future repowerings that can be implemented over 2027 to 2029. We are now in a position where every project that is able to be repowered through 2027 can be, and towards the implementation of a program that will aim to have repowered over one gigawatt of wind by 2029, with the majority of our wind fleet by that year being repowered or newly constructed this decade, and in a strong position to perform for the decade ahead. Turning to slide 12. Our sponsor-enabled growth program has also continued its forward progress, with all previously committed investments funded in construction or on track for completion at attractive CAPTI yields. All dropdowns that have commenced commercial operations in 2025 are fully funded, with initial operational results showing excellent performance and anticipated CAPTI contributions and CAPTI yields exceeding these levels initially communicated at the time of investment commitment. This outcome was driven by further revenue contract and cost optimization, as well as supportive project financing markets. Committed or recently offered drop-downs planned for COD in 2026 all remain on track for completion in that year with accretive prospective returns for CWIN. Additional sponsor-developed drop-down opportunities for the 2020 COD and funding year are now coming into view. The Royal Float Project in Washington State has now been identified as a CWEN investment opportunity after executing a 20-year PPA and a 20-year energy storage agreement with the utility expecting significant data center demand growth in the region. And an additional WEC-located battery storage resource has been identified as a potential additional future drop-down investment opportunity for CWIN in 2027. Turning to slide 13. The last year has been a successful period of complementary and synergistic third-party M&A for Clearway, with three transactions consummated that capped the yields above 12%. Our early October announcement of the Deriva Solar Portfolio Acquisition capped off a fruitful year of disciplined acquisition engagement in a market environment that favored our strengths as an enterprise. The transaction leverages our core strengths in operating solar assets cost-efficiently across the country and especially in California. It also positions us to enhance value in the 2030s through battery hybridizations at targeted sites and through the ability to offer solar energy and capacity value alongside our market-leading franchise for operating and new wind in PJM. Turning to slide 14. Our 2030 CAPTI per share target is built upon the strong building blocks discussed earlier. From the 2025 midpoint of guidance, we've spent the last year executing across our growth pathways through fleet improvements, enhanced capacity revenues, drop-downs, and third-party M&A such that we now see a path to achieve the top end or better of our previously set 2027 target range of $2.50 to $2.70 in CAFTI per share. Beyond 2027, CAFTI per share growth will be further increased through what promises to be a very fruitful year of repowering investments in 2027. Potential investments in now identified sponsor-enabled drop-down opportunities for the same year. And the sizable late-stage pipeline Clearway Group is developing for completion in 2028 and 2029. Notable items that would net out against incremental asset cap fee from growth include the issuance of corporate debt to fund growth and the refinancing of our corporate bonds due in 2031, both of which we have conservatively accounted for in our target. We also expect to issue modest equity to fund growth in line with our demonstrated practices and with the prospective cost of such issuance incorporated into our 2030 target. While our target represents robust growth compound annual growth rate from 2025 levels, we will continue to evaluate the potential to prudently and methodically improve on that outlook over time through our fleet enhancement and sponsor development pathways and also through additional third-party M&A, which is not incorporated into our target setting and would continue to be subject to a rigorous standard for financial accretion. With that, I'll turn it over to Sarah, who will walk through our financial summary and provide additional detail on our financing outlook through 2030.
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