Cushman & Wakefield plc

Good day and welcome to Cushman and Wakefield's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. If you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on a touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Megan McGrath, head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you and welcome to Cushman and Wakefield's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Earlier today, we issued a press release announcing our financial results for the period. This release along with today's presentation can be found on our Investor Relations website at .CushmanWakefield.com. Please turn to the page in our presentation labeled, cautionary note on forward-looking statements. Today's presentation contains forward-looking statements based on our current forecast and estimates of future events. These statements should be considered estimates only and actual results may differ materially. During today's call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures as outlined by SEC guidelines. Reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures, definitions of non-GAAP financial measures, and other related information are found within the financial tables of our earnings release and the appendix of today's presentation. Also, please note that throughout the presentation, comparisons and growth rates are to the comparable periods of 2023 and in local currency unless otherwise stated. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Michelle McKay.

Thank you, Megan. And good morning to everyone and thank you for joining us today. We concluded 2024 with unparalleled momentum reporting our highest capital markets revenue growth since the first quarter of 2022 and another robust quarter of leasing growth. Our services business is now solidified and invigorated, poised to reaccelerate and further supported by investments going into the platform this year. 2024 produced one of the highest free cash flow conversion percentages in the history of the company and that positions us well to pursue top-tier talent, invest in our services business and execute on our growth plan inclusive of M&A. We developed a strategy that includes a commitment to delivering progressively improving earnings growth over the next several years. As of now, the macroeconomic environment as it pertains to property is largely favorable. The economy is growing, creating jobs, corporate profits are healthy, odds of a recession have receded. All of these factors have created a healthy backdrop for leasing. And our own performance confirms that leasing has momentum as we have now had five straight consecutive quarters of -over-year leasing revenue growth. For capital markets, we are observing early stages of our recovery. For two years, the market was largely recalibrating to higher interest rates. That was the hardest part. But now we are largely past that. Property values have corrected, central banks have begun reducing rates, debt costs and availability of debt have improved because lenders are sensing the inflection. And buyers and sellers are proving that they can view deals in this environment as evidenced by our Q4 performance. For our 2025 outlook, we expect leasing revenue growth to remain solid. We continue to observe green shoots in office, return to office is gaining momentum, net absorption is improving, and nearly half of the markets that we track registered positive absorption in Q4, and a healthy pipeline of expiring leases will create steady deal flow. Industrial is normalizing, but its growth engines of e-commerce, consumer spending, third-party logistics, and supply chain optimization remain strong. In capital markets, we are not calling for a hockey stick recovery because interest rates will more than likely remain high in this cycle. The Fed funds rate isn't likely going to be zero again, and the 10-year yield isn't going to be two again. So we won't get the frenzied activity that we did coming out of COVID. But based on what we're observing and if current trends hold, we will likely get a good bounce in 2025 as confidence in our sector continues to grow. We believe that we are in the early innings of a multi-year upcycle in commercial real estate, and so we are accelerating investments across our platform in 2025. The cyclical uplift combined with the work that we are doing to accelerate profitable growth and our continued commitment to improving our balance sheet makes this an exciting time to be at Cushman and Wakefield. I want to thank our teams across the globe for an exceptional 2024 and for driving us forward with our new vision to be known as the premium brand in the industry and to set the standard across the built environment for problem solving through exceptional advice and execution of services. Now let me hand the call over to Neil to review our financial performance.

Thanks, Michelle, and good morning, everyone. In 2024, we achieved our financial objectives of improving free cash flow, protecting margins, and fortifying our balance sheet. We strengthened our financial foundation to lay the groundwork for sustainable long-term growth. For the full year, fee revenue of $6.6 billion was up 1% and adjusted EBITDA expanded 3% to $582 million. Our EBITDA margin improved by 10 basis points to 8.8%. Adjusted EPS was $0.91, up 8% from last year, setting the base for future growth. We delivered $167 million of free cash flow for the year, $66 million higher than 2023, and improved conversion as a percentage of adjusted net income to 79%. Our strong cash flow enabled us to pay $200 million of our 2025 term loan ahead of schedule. We also lowered our borrowing costs through four term loan repricings over the past year. We closed the year with $793 million in cash and cash equivalents and $1.9 billion in total liquidity. Our leverage ratio improved to 3.8 times from 4.3 times at the end of 2023. Before providing our 2025 outlook, I'll give some details on our quarterly results. For QV revenue of $1.9 billion increased by 4%, building on the momentum we drove in the third quarter. Underlying the 14% growth in brokerage revenues, capital markets revenue was up 36% globally, exceeding our guidance as the environment for transactions continued to strengthen. And our leasing business delivered another strong quarter, up 7%. Adjusted EBITDA of $222 million increased 6% as the double vision improvement in brokerage revenue was balanced against the ramp-up in growth investments we discussed last quarter, and a $7.5 million decrease in earnings from equity method investments. For the full year, earnings from equity method investments declined $21 million, primarily attributable to reduced transaction volumes in our Greystone Joint venture driven by tighter lending conditions in 2024. Moving to service life performance for the quarter, beginning with leasing, America's leasing remains a key area of strength, growing 12% in Q4, the second straight quarter of double digit growth. Demand was solid across deal sizes and asset classes, particularly in office, as tenants continue to seek out high quality spaces. We expect continued strength in 2025, supported by a resilient US economy and increased return to office trends. APEC leasing was stable in Q4, with strong results in Australia and India offsetting challenges in China. Our strong market positioning in India positions us to benefit from the country's rapid economic growth, expected to be among the highest globally over the next decade. Lastly, EMEA leasing contracted 15% in Q4, due to a tough comparison against last year's 13% growth. Capital markets rebounded strongly in Q4. America's capital markets revenue rose 33%, fueled by industrial deals and strong office activity. EMEA increased 20%, led by France and Eastern Europe. APEC improved 92%, driven by Japan and Australia, reflecting the benefits of our investments in the region. In services, while 2024 was a year of restructuring, focused on improving margins and setting up profitable growth, fourth quarter service revenues grew 1%, excluding the impact of the non-core divestiture earlier in the year. America's services revenue increased 3% in Q4, excluding the divestiture, driven by property management and facilities management. APEC services declined 7% due to prior year one-time project revenue, but ended the year up 3%. EMEA services returned to growth in the fourth quarter, rising 1% as we completed margin proofing transitions and refocused on growth, especially in design and build. Our services platform is a key investment focus in 2025. Moving now to our outlook. We enter 2025 with a stronger capital structure, lower interest expense, solid cash reserves, and clear capital allocation priorities. Last year, we outlined our plan to increase investment spending while continuing to de-lever over time. Strong Q4 results and positive market conditions reinforce our confidence that transaction volumes have stabilized, making this the right time for long-term investments. For 2025, we aim to accelerate services growth, targeting a run rate of -single-digit top-line growth by mid-year, with steady progress throughout the year. We expect leasing growth to remain strong in the -single-digit range, supported by global economies and durable secular tailwinds in office and industrial. We expect fully a capital markets growth to accelerate in 2025 from the -single-digit rate we reported for the full year 2024, with the magnitude of the acceleration dependent on interest rate volatility, investor sentiment, and continuing availability of capital. On the cost front, we'll carefully balance increased investment spend with a focus on long-term returns and value creation. As we have previously stated, we anticipate our incremental investments to be a near-term headwind to margin improvements, especially in seasonally lower volume quarters. As a result, we expect first quarter margin to be relatively flat versus the prior year. In closing, we are pleased with our strong quarterly performance and remain confident in our financial plan. We expect to achieve improved earnings per share growth in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by our core business strength and disciplined execution. The investments we are making now will fuel sustainable growth, with even stronger earnings growth anticipated in 2026 and 2027, delivering greater value for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Michelle.

Thank you, Neil. In speaking to capital allocation, our investment and growth strategy is a multifaceted, layered approach aimed at driving steady expansion in EPS. Each layer of growth builds and complements the other. Layer one is talent. As we stated in last quarter's call, we have seen significant increase in top tier talent retention over the past year due to intentional actions that we have taken to retain our best and brightest. Additionally, you can also see publicly that we are recruiting significant new talent to the firm, and this process has been ongoing and earnest since the fall. For example, Miles Treister, our new head of U.S. capital markets, has already brought in 10 new capital market teams in the past four months alone. Layer two is funding steady organic expansion. This is growth that is deliberate, gradual, and achieved through internal efforts rather than external acquisitions or major investments. It reflects our focus on leveraging our existing platform by improving efficiency, nurturing customer relationships, and enhancing core competencies over time. Due to our scale and global footprint, we have considerable opportunity here to expand within what we already have. And layer three is strategic tuck-in growth. This is an ongoing commitment to small scale acquisitions that complement the core business or expands us into closely related areas, targeting steady and synergistic growth. We are looking at acquisitions that have low integration risk with appropriate reliance on cost synergies to achieve underwriting goals. Within each growth layer, we are already actioning multiple options and will continue to add to the pipeline in 2025. We believe this plan provides the pillars for attainable, accretive, and progressive long-term growth. Let me now hand back the call to the operator for questions.

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. We ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our rosters. The first question comes from Stephen Sheldon with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First, I guess, is there any rough framework you could provide for how we should be thinking about margins for the full year 2025? I appreciate the commentary that margins will be flat year over year in the first quarter, but it just seems like there are a lot of moving pieces this year between reinvestments across the business and some of the initiatives that Michelle, you talked about, and then clearly assumptions on the transactional uplifts given the high incremental margins there. Any rough frameworks for how we should be thinking about margins full year would be helpful.

Thanks for the question, Stephen. Yes, to your point, we are going to have some pressure on margin given the amount of investments that we're going to be making over the course of the year that are in the best long-term interest of the company and its performance. Let me have Neil give you a little more guidance around that for clarity.

Yeah, sure, Stephen. What we've given you is a framework around how we're thinking about revenue. Then what we're going to do is balance investment spend with our growth. As always, we see about 45% of our revenue in the first half with 55% in the second half. The first quarter margin guide, that is our smallest quarter, and that's why you see the flat margins there. What we committed to as a management team in 2025 is really delivering accelerating earnings growth, not just this year, but in the following years. We expected a minimum to up pace the 2024's 8% EPS growth, and we'll really balance investment depending on what we see primarily of capital markets during the year.

Okay, got it. Maybe just on that, I think with the commentary you're expecting acceleration versus 2024 in capital markets, can you just talk some about what you're seeing in the pipeline and then any color on how activities may be fared in the first six, seven weeks or so of 2025? I guess, has the fourth quarter momentum continued at least into the early part of the year?

We saw a bit of a pause in January in our execution. Pipeline is really strong, but specific to us, what we're starting to see is more of the institutional investor coming to us. We recently executed on the $950 million financing, which I would say is probably one of the larger deals that we've done in the history of the company. We're seeing a shift in the makeup and the composition of our pipeline in particular, which we have a lot of strength in the middle market and capital markets, which people tend not to talk about as much, but now we're starting to see a stronger mix into that institutional player as we work on and invest in our institutional capital markets platform.

Got it. That's great to hear. That's exciting. Maybe just one last quick one, just in services, I appreciate the commentary about getting mid to mid single digit growth by mid year. I guess, how soon are you thinking about growth in the first half then? With what you're seeing, would it be fair to think you'd be flat to low single digits in the first half? Just any comment on what the services trajectory could look like to get back to that mid single digits by mid year?

Sure, Stephen. When you think about our services business, it'll be a story of gradual improvement as we go through the year. What we are committed to is getting back to that mid single digit growth rate by mid year, I'm sure for the back half of the year. We started to see some good progress, but it's slow. 80% of our services business comes from recurring contracts. Starting to see some nice wins, which will certainly help the back half of the year, especially in our global occupier services business and in our property management business. 20% is project management. That's the part where once we start seeing momentum, that'll pick up quite quickly, but it will take a while. In EMEA, we have finished a lot of the reconfiguration, so expect stronger growth there. APAC is certainly a very strong services market. In the Americas, you saw that both in our facility services business and in our property management business, both of those returned to growth in the fourth quarter, so expect some good things there.

All right, good to hear. Thank you.

The next question comes from Anthony Paoloni with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Thank you and good morning. First question is on the leasing outlook where you said mid-single digits growth. And I was wondering if you can give us a little bit more detail and thoughts around where you see it stronger or weaker, both by property type and perhaps geography.

Okay, let me... Good morning, Tony. Let me give you a little context around what we're seeing in the office leasing. And we can talk about markets after that. In office, net absorption is improving and Q4 was one of the strongest quarters of demand since the pandemic. Nearly half of the markets we tracked registered positive absorption. And an important data point is that sublease space has peaked and is trending lower, indicating businesses are taking back space and using it again. The return to office is quite clearly trending higher. The list of companies mandating three, four, five days a week is growing. But anyway, it's absolutely trending to more in-office attendance. And the quality bias remains high, which means higher rents. In industrial, it's still normalizing from record demand coming out of the pandemic, but it's still healthy. Net absorption there is still positive. They can see it's going a bit higher, but in some ways that's okay because during the pandemic and post the pandemic, there were 15 to 20% rent growth rates that were not sustainable. And the market on whole and industrial logistics needed more space options. Those long-term engines remain strong, as I mentioned in my script, e-commerce, consumer spending on goods, population growth and on-shoring. And then if we reflect on particular markets where we saw strength in net absorption over the course of the year, Brooklyn, New York is a standout, Tampa is a standout, Baltimore is a standout, Nashville is a standout. In other areas of the country, in the US in particular, where they're still making progress in absorption is obviously San Francisco, Dallas, DC. These are all examples of really strong historical markets that still need to do a bit more in terms of absorbing.

Great. Thank you. And then my second question relates to the investments you're making into the business and the recruiting efforts. It is pretty noticeable from the outside to see what you've all been doing. And you mentioned just the investments creating some margin headwinds. So I was wondering if you could just talk about how it works. Like is it that you give new recruits higher splits or guarantees? Just wondering what creates the margin headwind when you go out and add producers?

Understood. It's not quite that narrow, Tony, because we're investing in the three buckets that I outlined in the script. Talent being one of them. But when we talk about investments in our organic growth to increase market share and sectors or geos to capture more of the market, to improve client retention and build infrastructure, that's where we're talking about putting some pressure directly on margins.

Okay, I understand. Thank you.

Thanks, Tony.

The next question comes from Julian Bluen with GS. Please go ahead. Hello, Julian. Your line is live. You're on the question queue.

Hi, can you hear me? Yes, we can hear you.

Yes, we can. Okay,

great. On the industrial front, I wanted to dig into some of those comments. You know, I was wondering, is there any signs maybe from occupiers or buyers of sort of taking a step back to assess trade policy uncertainty before making decisions? I'm just sort of wondering if that's been part of the slower execution year to date you sort of noted on the capital market side?

Specifically, Julian, and welcome, Julian, I believe this is your first call with us. Really, in terms of industrial, it's too early to draw any definitive conclusions. The policy situation remains fluid and unpredictable, and we're studying it. Our clients are studying it. But there's a lot we don't know in terms of precise timing and scope of things like tariffs and how policy is going to change and how it'll impact property. Having said that on whole property is proven throughout history and many administrations that it can navigate these changes. And importantly, as we're a global business, policy changes that negatively impact one market could positively impact another. And remember that in terms of our own position to all of this, we're an advisory business. The types of uncertainty people need solutions, which means they're bringing us in to help solve. That could mean expansion, contraction, build out, relocation, any of these things.

Got it. That's very helpful. And maybe touching on sort of the strength, the really impressive strength you saw in the capital markets business in the fourth quarter, maybe specifically looking at APAC, you noted strength in Japan and Australia. I just want to get a sense of how sustainable you feel those sort of trends that we saw in the fourth quarter could be sort of going into 2025.

Yeah, those are very strong markets for us, but also because they were markets where we made investments in late 2022. And so we're seeing the fruits of our labor with regard to those markets in particular, bringing in capital markets expertise.

Okay, great. Thank you so much.

Again, if you have a question, please press star then one. Our next question comes from Michael Griffin with Citi. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks. Michelle, I want to go back to your comments just around transaction activity and expectations for the year. Obviously, it seems like we're in this higher for longer rate environment. It doesn't seem like the Fed's going to cut this year, at least as it stands right now. So as you think about the outlook, what is the catalyst for incremental transaction activity? Is it debt maturity driven? Are sellers finally capitulating on price? What's going to get that engine to start picking back up?

Okay. I'm going to give you our perspective and our thesis around this. We've been projecting and continue to project that the stage is being set for steady expansion in capital markets activity. And frankly, that is a healthier path for the market than the originally anticipated hockey stick recovery. And let me give you some data around your question and in support of that thesis. What we see is that cap rates have largely recalibrated, which means that leverage is neutral to positive on most assets, which means the leverage player can come back into the capital markets world. DVD office fixed rate borrowing on average is around 7%. But the cap is around 8.25. Industrial is averaging around 6.5 on cap rate basis, mid to high fives on financing costs. Multi-family remains neutral cap rates and borrowing costs. So there's still a lot of work to do in that particular sector.

Great. That's a helpful context. And then maybe just one kind of following up on the theme within office. Clearly, Lee Singh has continued to improve there. I think the general understanding is that's mainly for kind of the higher quality buildings, but in markets that continue to show strength, maybe like New York as an example, have you started to see a spillover effect into maybe lower tier, lower price point buildings that are seeing incremental leasing demand as a result of kind of the market's improvement?

Yeah, you're spot on with that one. The quality basis remains high quality office remains in high demand and there's not enough of it. And the construction pipeline over the several years has been lean, the lowest in over a decade. So the new space is leased up pretty much and the demand is trickling down to the next best thing.

Great. That's it for me. Thanks for the time.

Seeing that there are no further questions in the queue, this concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Michelle McKay for any closing remarks.

Thank you, everyone. And we look forward to speaking to you again after first quarter earnings.

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.