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Operator
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Delta Airlines March quarter 2021 financial results conference call. My name is Travis and I will be your coordinator at this time. All participants are in a listen only mode until we conduct a question and answer session following the presentation. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Julie Stewart, vice president of investor relations. Please go ahead, Matt.
Travis
Thank you, Travis. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for our March quarter 2021 earnings call. Joining us from Atlanta today are our CEO, Ed Bastian, our president, Glenn Hauenstein, and our interim co-CFO, Gary Chase. Ed will open the call with an overview of Delta's performance and strategy. Glenn will provide an update on the revenue environment, and Gary will discuss costs, fleet, and our balance sheets. Similar to last quarter's call, we scheduled today's call for 90 minutes to make sure we have plenty of time for questions. For analysts, we ask you please limit yourself to one question and a brief follow-up so we can get to as many of you as possible. After the analyst Q&A, we will move to our media questions, after which Ed will provide a brief closing statement. Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that may cause such differences are described in Delta's SEC filings. We'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and all results exclude special items unless otherwise noted. You can find a reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures on the investor relations page at ir.delta.com. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.
Travis
Thank you, Julie. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. It's been a little over a year since the onset of the pandemic, and our customers are gaining confidence in air travel and beginning to reclaim their lives. Reflecting on what it's been in a year like no other, I'm tremendously proud of the progress that we've made and the agility that we've demonstrated. I've developed an even deeper appreciation for Delta's strengths and firmly believe that the pandemic has served as a catalyst for us to find new and better ways to serve our customers and our communities. Thanks to the incredible dedication and sacrifices of our people, Delta has weathered the storm with our culture, our brand, and our values stronger than ever before. And I want to thank every member of the Delta family for your incredible efforts over the past year. Collectively, you've carried us through and shown that unique spirit that we call the Delta difference. I also want to thank the administration and Congress for continued payroll support, which has protected thousands of airline jobs throughout the industry, and will help speed the US economy in the recovery. Thanks to that support, we've been able to return our people to full work schedules, despite running an operation that will be at 65 to 70% of 2019 levels in the June quarter. The first quarter had two distinct periods, with the first half feeling very much like an extension of 2020, as demand was slower than expected. But as case counts declined and vaccinations accelerated, Demand picked up meaningfully later in the quarter, allowing us to achieve $4 million of daily positive cash generation in the month of March, the first positive cash generation since the onset of COVID-19. This marks a critical milestone in the path to restoring our financials. It is truly a great accomplishment, especially considering that our middle seat block limited the inventory that we're selling, and business and international travel remain muted. It's also important to note that this metric takes into account all expenses that we're incurring as we rebuild our business. To have turned a true net positive cash flow position within a year of the biggest crisis ever seen in the history of this industry is a real testament to the resilience of the company that we have built. Consumer confidence in air travel continues to increase with the pace of vaccinations in the U.S. rapidly accelerating and predictions of herd immunity as soon as this summer. We said throughout the pandemic that one of the most important objectives was to restore confidence in air travel. We are now seeing more normal booking behavior as customers make plans for spring and summer travel. In fact, our daily net cash sales in March were twice what they were in January. As volumes grow, keeping our employees and customers safe and healthy will always be our top priority. We've taken a science-based approach to cleanliness and are being guided by our own Chief Health Officer, Dr. Henry Ting, as well as by medical experts at the Mayo Clinic and Emory. And earlier this month, the CDC confirmed that it is safe to travel within the U.S. for those who have been fully vaccinated, an important step forward for the recovery of our industry. We are aligning with the recommendations of health professionals and government officials who continue to ensure the safe and effective distribution of vaccines and listening to our customers. Based on our survey work, 75% of our customers expect to be vaccinated by Memorial Day. With improving demand and vaccine trends, we announced that we'll start selling middle seats May the 1st, providing a powerful tool for improving our financial performance. We also launched other customer experience and loyalty enhancements to increase confidence in travel and maintain the trust and loyalty that we've built over the last 12 months. Looking ahead and assuming that these recovery trends hold, We expect to cut our pre-tax loss by more than half in the June quarter to between one and one and a half billion dollars. And we see a path to returning to profitability in the September quarter. Delta's resilience has helped us navigate the worst days of the pandemic, driven by the competitive advantages that are core to our DNA. Those advantages, our people, our brand and loyalty program, our reliable operations, our network, and our balance sheet, will be even more important as we accelerate through the phases of recovery. These moats were tested like never before, and I'm proud of the resilience that they've demonstrated. Our people and our culture of service remain our most strategic asset. Loyalty to the Delta brand has never been stronger, thanks to the outstanding service that our people provide. They are truly the best professionals in the business. This is evident in our domestic customer net promoter scores, which have been in the low 70s throughout the pandemic. a full 20-point increase over 2019. We've also seen our customers continue to invest in the Delta brand using their American Express co-brand cards, demonstrating the resiliency of this unique revenue stream. Despite a large reduction in T&E categories, March co-brand spend on the card overall was up relative to March 2019 levels. Our operational performance remains strong. During the quarter, we led the industry in all on-time metrics, including A0, D0, and completion factor, which was more than 99%. And our network rebuild leverages the strength of our core hub structure in our international partner gateways. At the same time, we are renewing and simplifying our fleet, improving the customer experience, driving efficiency, and reducing emissions as we push toward our carbon neutral goals. And finally, the strength of our balance sheet enabled us to manage through the worst crisis in our history with no dilution to our shareholders other than warrants related to the payroll support program is something that continues to set us apart in the industry. We've begun our journey of delivering, and by the end of the June quarter, we will have reduced financial obligations by nearly $10 billion through a combination of paying down debt and accelerating pension funding since last fall. This reflects an unprecedented turnaround in the health of our pensions over the last decade, securing the future of our retirees. Later this year, we expect to make one final contribution to the plan of up to $1 billion, which should enable our pension to reach fully funded PPA status by the end of this year, largely mitigating the need for any additional cash contributions going forward. And finally, as we look toward the future, it's important to acknowledge that the commitment we made last year to achieving carbon neutrality is as strong as ever. The only future for Delta and our industry is a sustainable future. This is why we're accelerating our fleet renewal and balancing near-term needs for verifiable offsets with long-term investments in sustainable aviation fuels, carbon sequestration advancements, and clean propulsion technology. And because we can't do this alone, we are collaborating with corporate customers as well as large energy producers in order to address aviation emissions together and work to scale up sustainable aviation fuels. We're excited about the progress that we're making to combat climate change and enable a cleaner, more sustainable world. These steps are vital to Delta's long-term future, and we owe it to the next generation of customers and employees to continue down this path. The time for action, not talk, is now, and I'm proud of the steps our team is taking. As the recovery takes hold, glimmers of hope are now optimism for the future. Demand for air travel is accelerating in a meaningful way, and we are well positioned to build a stronger Delta as demand recovers to pre-pandemic levels in the next few years. With our competitive advantages having been fully tested, we have built a platform to extend Delta's leadership position in the years to come. More than ever, I am confident in the future of Delta and our people. Over the last year, we've taken meaningful actions to become a better, more sustainable, more inclusive company driven by our mission to connect the world.
Julie
And with that, I'll turn it over to Glenn. Thanks, Ed, and good morning, everyone. As Ed mentioned, the pace of demand recovery accelerated over the course of the quarter. With growing confidence, customers are now buying tickets for travel further out, speeding our cash recovery. In the month of March, daily new bookings improved 50% from the January and February average, well ahead of its normal seasonality. As customers are now buying tickets for travel further out, our booking curve has extended and our air traffic liability has grown for the first time in three quarters, up more than 800 million from December. On our January call, I outlined three distinct phases to the year and our levers for each. To progress to the second phase, we need to see higher vaccination rates, easing travel advisories, and growing consumer confidence, all of which are now evident in the United States today. Approximately 50% of the adult population in the US have now received at least one dose of the vaccine, and by May, all states will have lifted mandatory domestic quarantine restrictions. Pent-up demand is also evident, with domestic leisure bookings 85% recovered to 2019 levels, and Latin leisure markets more than fully restored. Beyond our own bookings, we see encouraging data points in the broader economy. This includes accumulated savings, restaurant dining, credit card spend, hotel occupancy rates, web search data on travel, and corporations announcing more concrete office reopening plans. In response to these developments and the reduction of COVID-19 cases, as well as accelerating vaccination rates, we will sunset our middle seat block as of May 1st. That provides us with a very powerful lever to add capacity in a cost-efficient way and generate meaningful margin tailwind. Removing our middle seat block results in our sellable capacity increasing from 46% of 2019 levels for the month of April to 67% of 2019 levels for the month of June. And with this increase coinciding with strong customer demand for our product, we expect our passenger unit revenue to improve by 20 to 25 points over that period. With this added capacity and a continuation of the leisure recovery heading into peak season, We expect our June quarter revenues to improve by approximately $2 billion from the March quarter. The corporate travel recovery has been slow but steady. Corporate volumes in March were nearly 20% recovered, up from 15% at the end of 2020. Small and medium enterprises continue to outperform other corporates by about five points. And given our investments in the customer experience, we've been able to grow our domestic corporate share lead, which is now significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. To progress to the next leg of the recovery, we need corporate travel to return in earnest. While we expect continued improvements to business travel through the summer, we anticipate the significant increases will occur after Labor Day as we enter the more traditional business travel season. That will happen as vaccinations become even more widespread and offices continue to reopen. We continue to expect operational and sales-related travel to lead with travel to large conferences and internal meetings likely the last to recover. Our views on corporate demand recovery are consistent with what we've heard in our most recent quarterly corporate survey, where one-third of our accounts expect to increase travel volume in the June quarter and a majority of our corporate customers expect to return to office in the second half of the year. Vaccine distribution and lifting of government travel restrictions remain the top two drivers of corporate willingness to travel. International travel remains muted, with long-haul international booking volumes at only 15 to 25 percent recovered. We're seeing some early signs of life in Europe, with Iceland opening to travel to vaccinated U.S. citizens and increased demand for Israel and leisure destinations this fall. That said, Europe lags the U.S. and Pacific is expected to be the last region to recover. We do not anticipate meaningful international demand improvement until later in the year when borders reopen. Once the recovery of those segments are underway, we'll expect they also prove to be a powerful cash and profitability lever for our business. Considering our operating leverage improvements in those segments will be cost-effective and highly margin accretive, a dynamic that is very similar to what we expect from lifting our middle seat blocks and one that I am very enthusiastic about. In the meantime, we'll continue to benefit from the strengthening demand environment in the domestic and short-haul Latin regions and from our non-ticket revenue streams, which have proven more resilient. Our cargo revenues in the March quarter improved 5 percent sequentially, and we're up 12% versus the March quarter of 2019. The performance of our loyalty is indicative of Delta's strong brand affinity and our customer aspirations to return to travel. As Ed mentioned, co-brand spend in the month of March was higher than 2019 levels. This was a result of solid growth in non-T&E spend and continued momentum in T&A, which is now down 35% in March from down approximately 55% in December. Card acquisitions are also rebounding nicely, and our attrition rates are below pre-pandemic levels. For the month of March, co-brand acquisitions were over 60% recovered, with less than half of our customer base blind. Our long-term partnership with American Express combines two strong consumer brands, enhancing customer loyalty while also providing a high-margin revenue stream that has proven its resiliency. We have driven stronger engagement through our digital channels resulting in more direct relationships with our customers and record high digital satisfaction scores. Over the last year, we've created a more flexible and enhanced experience for our direct channels, increasing self-service and making it easier for our customers to do business with Delta. Digital adoption is on the rise and direct channels like Delta.com and the FlyDelta app account for 66% of our sales in the March quarter up 15 points from 2019. While we expect that will normalize, especially as corporate travel recovers, direct channels will continue to be preferred, particularly among medallions and young customers. As we restore our business, we're rebuilding our industry-leading network with a simpler, younger, and more fuel-efficient fleet. At the same time, we have preserved optionality with levers to flex our capacity restoration in either direction depending on the shape of the recovery. We are also capitalizing on the industry's best domestic hub structure with the highest return profile. The combination of our strong core hubs and coastal positions provides us with a unique opportunity to leverage cost-efficient gauge with large narrow-body aircraft, providing meaningful efficiency and scale advantages. In addition, we now see the opportunity to significantly improve our international returns from pre-pandemic levels driven by an improved competitive position, a stronger cargo business, the acceleration of our fleet renewal, stronger partnerships, and an improved product offering. Reflecting on what has been the most difficult 12 months in the company's history, I could not be prouder of what our teams have accomplished. so I want to thank them for their commitment and continue to put the customer in the center of what we do every day. Looking forward, I'm optimistic about Delta's bright future. We have a powerful brand loyalty program that's proven their resiliency. We continue to improve our customer experience both in the air and on the ground as we've accelerated our robust array of airport projects. Our focus on health and flexibility has won the confidence of our travelers and we're being well served by our younger, more eco-friendly fleet and leaner cost structure. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Gary.
Glenn
Thanks, Glenn, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to see our recovery begin to take root and our focus shift from stabilizing the company's financials to creating value by returning to profitability, generating cash, and restoring our financial position to its pre-COVID strength. Let me start with some highlights from the quarter, then I'll address the upcoming quarter, our fleet strategy, and the beginnings of our deleveraging journey. Our first quarter pre-tax loss of $1.5 billion includes a $1.2 billion benefit related to the payroll support program. Net of this benefit, restructuring items, and extinguishment charges associated with the prepayment of debt, we reported an adjusted loss of $2.9 billion. Our people out in the operation, along with the commercial and finance teams, came together nicely. to produce great cost performance. Adjusted operating costs of $6.3 billion were 33% lower than 2019, slightly higher than we anticipated at the outset of the quarter with half due to higher fuel expense and the other half due to recovery and COVID-related items. Non-fuel chasm was up sequentially as expected on 10% higher capacity as we restored our employees to full work hours and incurred costs to prepare for the recovery. Adjusted fuel price of $1.91 per gallon was 33% higher than 4Q, driven by market prices and losses at the refinery, which drove a 23 cent per gallon headwind in the quarter. On the consumption side, we realized a 12% fuel efficiency gain compared to 2019, with nearly half of that a direct result of our fleet renewal. Daily cash burn averaged $11 million in the quarter, improving from $12 million in the December quarter despite stepped-up expenses. Improved receipts in March drove $4 million of daily and positive cash generation. We ended the quarter with $16.6 billion of liquidity and adjusted net debt of $19.1 billion, roughly flat with the December quarter, though above where we expected to be due to aircraft financing decisions. Let's now look forward into the June quarter. We expect a nearly $2 billion improvement in our pre-tax result. If the recovery progresses in line with our expectations and fuel remains at current levels, We expect to narrow our pre-tax loss to between one and 1.5 billion with progressive improvement through the quarter to break even in the month of June. A key driver of improvement will be the sunset of our middle seat block, increasing our inventory available for sale at minimal cost. We also expect continued strong performance on our non-fuel costs and still target levels below 2019 by the fourth quarter. In 2020, the teams delivered strong cost performance by baselining aggressively. In 21, we are focused on driving cost leverage as we rebuild the network and revenue returns. We are seeing that leverage materialize in the June quarter, with a small increase in costs on a 20% increase in capacity, driving a 12% to 15% improvement in non-fuel costs sequentially. Compared to the same period in 2019, non-fuel chasm is expected to be 6% to 9% higher, including three to four points from rebuild items. Adjusted fuel price is expected at $1.85 to $1.95 per gallon, and fuel efficiency for the quarter is expected to remain better than 2019 by more than 10%. Bringing these items together, at the midpoint of our guidance, June quarter total operating expense is expected to be down approximately 35% from June quarter 2019. We expect daily cash generation in the June quarter as demand further improves. Now let me comment on our fleet strategy, a key enabler of our cost performance. Our accelerated fleet transformation drives more than $400 million in annualized cost benefit relative to 2019, driven by fuel efficiency, simplification, and gauge. These benefits have enabled excellent cost performance and will support further inflection in our financials as the demand recovery accelerates. Since the pandemic began, Delta has taken a measured approach in matching supply with demand. That discipline, combined with the great work of our fleet and tech ops teams, have positioned us to capture fleet efficiencies while preserving optionality on upside capacity levels for the future that will utilize flex fleets if demand warrants additional capacity. As Glenn said, we have the ability to flex capacity in either direction based on the demand. The teams have plotted a path to invest in our fleet with maintenance that will either support higher flying levels if warranted, or largely offset costs we'd otherwise incur in the future. Let me now move to the balance sheet. With our cash flow and earnings close to inflection, we've begun to reduce our debt levels and chip away at our $4 million daily interest burden. In the March quarter, we set in motion our first phase of debt reduction. Using $3 billion of our liquidity, we are paying down debt, funding our pension, and acquiring aircraft in the June quarter with cash. Combined, these initiatives drive $240 million of annualized savings and free up $2 billion of lending capacity. On April 1st, we contributed $1 billion to the pension. This accelerated contribution, along with strong returns produced by our pension team, positioned the funds to be more than 95% funded by year-end under the Pension Protection Act that determines cash funding obligations. On a gap basis, we expect to be more than 85% funded by year-end. We are now assessing an additional contribution of up to $1 billion to achieve fully funded PPA status by year end. It is really exciting to see our long-term pension vision crystallize. The combination of contributions and strong returns over time now position us where we expect no material contributions to the plan beyond 2021, freeing up an average of more than $1 billion annually of our cash flow. Adjusted net debt is expected to be $19 to $19.5 billion in the June quarter as we draw down liquidity to fund the pension plans and pay cash for aircraft deliveries in the June quarter. We expect normal amortization of debt, including the $600 million unsecured maturity in April, to be approximately $850 million in the June quarter. We're also working on a longer-term vision to restore and improve upon the strong financial position we enjoyed pre-COVID. Our financial foundation has greatly helped us to weather this crisis while investing in our future and avoiding dilution for our owners. In closing, I am proud of what the Delta team has accomplished over the last year. The Delta difference that Ed mentioned has never been more important, nor has it been more pronounced. Thanks to all 75,000 of you for protecting each other, our customers, and our future. We have exciting opportunities ahead. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Julie to begin the Q&A.
Travis
Thanks, Gary. Travis, we are ready for the analyst questions. If you could give the instructions on how to get into the queue.
Operator
Yes, ma'am. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star 1 to ask a question. We'll pause just for a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions. Our first question comes from Duane Finningworth, Evercore.
Duane Finningworth
Hey, good morning. Thanks. I wanted to ask you about restart bottlenecks. As we travel more, you know, it feels like staffing levels are very tight. And that's just not an airline observation, but really across service providers, hotels, car rentals. It feels like there's understaffing right now relative to demand. And I think there's been some anecdotes about a hard time filling open positions. Obviously, the airline industry is in a different position given PSP, but I wanted to ask you, as you gain confidence in the demand recovery, what are the bottlenecks in getting spooled back up? Are you short-staffed today relative to any of your work groups, or is it really just a pilot training exercise?
Travis
Hi, Duane. You know, I think the issue you talk about in the broader hospitality sector is an issue. I don't think it's an issue for the airlines, but I know the hotels, the rental car providers, as you say, are having a difficult time getting staff back, given the level of unemployment and other stimulus that's been provided into the general economy. We're not experiencing that issue at all here at Delta. Our people have been at work throughout the entire... the entire time. I'd say the biggest bottleneck, two bottlenecks that we face, which I feel very good about where we're at, is clearly getting our pilot training and our pilots into the right categories and ready to fly. And secondly, maintenance, making certain that we've got our aircraft and our engines and all the work ready for a pretty quick rebound. You know, we had some cancellations on Easter Sunday a couple weeks ago, about 100 cancellations. in the business, and we've noticed it's been a trend on some of the holiday weekends, but for the last few holidays, certainly Presidents' Day and Easter, not nearly the challenges that we experienced earlier in Thanksgiving and Christmas, and it's because our business is dealing with the tension between making sure that we've got as many costs out and saved and people on whether it's voluntary leave or some other alternative plan, and being ready to respond to demand as it comes back. I feel pretty good about where we sit for the coming spring and summer. We've spent an awful lot of time understanding that. You also need to appreciate that in certain parts of the country, the virus is growing at a faster rate than others. We've had vaccinations moving, and that's impacted a little bit. on the pilot availability because pilots need to sit for a couple of days every time they get a shot. But all in, I think our team is well positioned and ready for the rebound that we see coming this summer.
Duane Finningworth
Thanks for that, Ed. And then just for follow-up, and I think Gary touched on it, but how do you think about the range of outcomes on June, you know, whether it's capacity or revenue, you know, What ability do you have here in 2Q to flex up if demand plays out better than what your guidance assumes? Thanks for taking the questions.
Travis
Well, the biggest flex lever we have is the middle seat, which comes available May the 1st. And you're going to see a significant capacity bump from April to May because of the seat. So we're not anticipating a significant amount of additional schedule requirements. Probably the biggest question mark we have is the international space, and we're working closely with the international authorities to be ready to fly when they enable travel, particularly in the transatlantic markets. But I'm not contemplating us having a big challenge getting seats in the market for June.
Duane Finningworth
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Brandon Oglinski. Mark, please.
Brandon Oglinski
Yeah, thanks for taking my question. Gary, you walked through a lot of changes on the balance sheet there, but I think you said you're going to end the quarter, or QQ, that is, with about $19 to $19.5 billion in net debt. I guess, could you just talk to, again, the priorities on the fleet and the pension paydown, as well as where you'd like to see that net debt number by the end of the year, and then maybe a longer-term goal around the balance sheet?
Glenn
Yeah. Well, Brandon, you know, we're not going to comment on where we'll be by the end of the year. What we've been very clear about as a long-term goal is that we want to be back to an investment-grade quality balance sheet. You know, if you think about it simplistically, our net debt is up about $8.5 billion since the end of 2019. So one easy way to think about what we need to do is get that back down to the $10 billion range. In terms of near-term priorities, you noted, one, we did make beyond the quarter on April 1st, we made a billion-dollar contribution to the plan. We've discussed in here, you know, the potential for up to another billion dollars to achieve that fully funded PPA status. The other things that you should expect to see from us would be we're going to continue to pay cash for our aircraft. which not only prevents us from incurring debt, but it obviously builds our unencumbered collateral base. And then we have ongoing debt maturity. So in this quarter alone, in fact, on Monday, we will pay a $600 million unsecured maturity. Over the course of the rest of the quarter, we'll have another roughly $250 million of regularly scheduled amortization. and another $400 million of that across the second half. So you'll continue to see those debt levels work down for all of those reasons.
Brandon Oglinski
Appreciate that. And has the pandemic made you rethink your minimum liquidity threshold that you're comfortable carrying going forward?
Glenn
Well, we've looked at this a number of different ways. We're thinking about it on an interim basis. We've looked at it a number of ways, and they're all kind of pointing to the same zip code. So we've sketched out about a $10 to $12 billion interim floor for liquidity that we want to see. I think it's important to note, though, that we don't have that thought process in isolation. And I'll just repeat, one of the One of the things that you see us very deliberately doing is consciously building the unencumbered collateral base as we go. So in addition to thinking about where we want to be with liquidity, our mind is also on continuing to build that unencumbered asset base so that we've got the flexibility.
Brandon Oglinski
Appreciate it.
Operator
Our next question comes from Jamie Baker, JP Morgan.
Jamie Baker
Hey, good morning everybody. First question for Ed or maybe for Glenn, I appreciate the endorsement of the third quarter profit. From a high level, can you expand on what it's going to require? I mean, can you get there solely on domestic leisure recovery, or do you need some percentage of international reopening or corporate to improve from down 80 to down 60, that sort of thing?
Travis
Hi, Jamie. Obviously, there's still a ways to go between here and there to get to the third quarter. Clearly, the number one dependency is the vaccination rate and getting to herd immunity in our country and All the experts we talk to, including our own doctors, tell us that early summer is when we should expect our country to be in some form of early herd immunity, and that will continue to inspire additional travel. Yes, we're working on reopening international corridors. I think the one that is most likely to be open for the third quarter, hopefully, is the US-UK travel corridor, and we're spending a lot of time with the authorities both here in the U.S. as well as the U.K. as to what's going to be required to get that done, and hopefully early summer that we'll see that corridor open, which will then bring some pressure, I'm sure, on other markets to follow similar suit and protocols. The middle seat opening is another huge leverage point. The fact that we've been carrying such a significant amount of our capacity deliberately not selling is going to be a big add-on there. So, When you think about all these factors, you need to think about the additional scale that we have from better utilizing our fleet. Our fleet is still somewhat probably 10% to 15% underutilized as we're operating it today. These are the types of things we look at to give us some real optimism that there's a pathway to get into profitability this summer.
Jamie Baker
Okay, that's helpful. Second question for Gary, and I suppose this builds a little bit on Brandon's question, but You cited the build in the ATL in the release in the prepared remarks. That was helpful. Thank you. A competitor of yours has said that one of their most important lessons learned from the downturn is you just can't count on the ATL anymore. Is that consistent with how you're thinking and how it ties back to how you manage liquidity going forward?
Glenn
Jamie, I think I'll answer it this way. There are a number of factors that we put into the thought process about liquidity. It is safe to say that that was one of the stress points that we considered. Okay. It wrapped into the analysis I was describing that has us kind of landing in the $12 billion zone.
Jamie Baker
Got it. Okay. I appreciate it. Thank you, gentlemen. Look forward to seeing you next month. It's good to be getting back to in-person.
Travis
We look forward to it, Jamie.
Operator
Our next question comes from Helene Becker, Cohen.
Helene Becker
Thanks very much, Operator. Hi, everybody, and thank you very much for your time. So two questions. Ed, you referenced, and you and I talked about this last month too, you referenced you know, sustainability and the things that you're doing with respect to carbon sequestration. And I think you mentioned other changes in the fleet. And I'm just kind of wondering, you know, how should we think about getting to net carbon zero by 2040 and the costs involved in that? And if you think that that helps your corporate market share going forward?
Travis
As I mentioned in my opening comments, sustainability is a real issue for us, for our business, and it's a problem now. It can't wait until later to be addressed. We're doing, as we've committed to, investing in verified carbon offsets with the highest certification, which are the only real solution in the marketplace right now, and we appreciate There's a lot of concerns about efficacies, and we are concerned also, and that's why we're so specific in terms of what we're investing in. But there is real evidence they have a clear impact, and we can't wait for those longer-term investments to start paying off to reduce the footprint in the meantime. We're working with a lot of providers, whether it's in the energy arena or other technology providers, seeking solutions to decarbonize our operations and our footprint. We've committed a billion dollars over this decade towards investments along these lines. And as you see this become a increased importance to the current administration, their priorities, we're hopefully going to get some support from our government, particularly in the area of sustainable aviation fuels, which is critical. We don't have as an industry a clear roadmap to net carbon zero by 2040 at the present time. But it's important that we have the mindset that we're going to do what it takes to continue to invest in a better future for all.
Helene Becker
That's really helpful. Thank you. And then just on another subject, when we were down there for Investor Day in 2019, one of the things that we saw was the Delta tech ops and the maintenance operation and so on. And I'm just wondering how you guys are thinking about that business going forward, given the the huge reduction in older aircraft that exist out there in the world now and, you know, your non Delta customers and how they're thinking about renewing contracts or whatever, and how you're thinking about that business.
Travis
Well, we're excited about the, sure, Helene, we're excited about the MRO and its future and you're right in 2020, There was a dip in volumes as airlines pulled back, not just flying levels, but retired on a global basis, some of the older fleets. But our MRO revenues are not down nearly in line with what we're flying levels have come down to. And as we look to the pipeline of opportunities, there's still a pretty good backlog to dip into. So the team's doing a great job over there, first and foremost, taking care of the Delta fleet, but looking for opportunities to expand going forward. And I think as the earlier question that Duane answered or asked around pipeline blockages or obstacles to getting our businesses back, the MRO is going to be key for us, not just helping Delta, but also helping some other airlines around the world get their businesses back up and running as quickly as they can.
Helene Becker
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator
Our next question comes from Hunter key Wolf research.
Hunter
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Um, with, uh, with so much liquidity and demand, including zero percent probability at that, you do not participate in PSP three.
Travis
I'm sorry, Hunter. You said with, with the liquidity, let me rephrase the liquidity we have, will we be participating in PSP three? Is that your, your fundamental question?
Hunter
I guess, yeah, I'm just wondering if there's a chance that you turn down PSP3 if things continue to improve like this, or opt not to participate in it.
Travis
Yeah, we don't anticipate turning that down, no.
Hunter
Okay, thank you. And then, Glenn, as you talk to the corporates, I know it's early, but as you think about 2022 spending, are you starting these conversations from 2019 spend and working it down, or are you starting at zero and sort of building it up?
Julie
Yeah, I think we're looking at what we have today and building it back up again. And, you know, we don't know the outcome or when. What we do see is that slow and steady build. And we think as we get to the end of the summer, as we said in the script, that as the vaccination rates continue to improve and offices continue to return, that we will see an acceleration as we head into the fall. And I think, you know, still unknown where we'll wind up this year and where we'll wind up in summer of 22. And that's, I think, where we're going to work on the flexibility of our fleet to flex up or down, depending on what we see in the market at different points in time.
Travis
To add to Glenn's points, we did update the corporate survey that we commented upon last quarter, and the numbers continue to look favorable. 36% of, and this is many of our large corporations, participated, 36%. expect to be fully back travel to pre-COVID levels by 22 and another 16% by 23. So 52% say they're anticipating getting back to full levels. Only 8% of the corporations that we survey say they will never get back to pre-COVID levels. And there's 40% that are unclear as to what level of additional flying that they anticipate. So if you take a fairly conservative view on the 40% uncertain and the 80% that never get fully back and say that only 50% of that returns, then we're looking at 75%, 70%, 80% of our corporate revenues coming back over the course of the next couple years, which I continue to think is conservative, and we're working hard as people feel confident getting back out into the sky to get that business volume back to where it was.
Hunter
Thank you both.
Operator
Our next question comes from Rozzy Shanker, Morgan Stanley.
Rozzy Shanker
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Two questions for me, one near term and one longer term. In the near term, how would you characterize the current competitive environment out there? Obviously, early days yet, and everyone's trying to obviously add capacity to places that people want to go, but are you encouraged by what you're seeing right now, and do you think it gets better or worse from here as we open up more?
Julie
I think there's really two things that we would talk about and they're different scenarios. One is internationally coming out of the pandemic, I think we see a vastly improved competitive scenario with a lot of the ultra low cost or low cost players in each region coming out of this much weaker or gone. And so as we see Europe come back, as we see Latin and the Pacific come back, I think we're going to see a much improved environment for many years ahead of us. And domestically, I think you characterized it quite well as people are traveling differently than they were pre-pandemic. And while we are back at 85% of demand, that 85% is going different places than it was pre-pandemic. So you see a lot more capacity from the industry in places that people are interested, basically the West, the wide open spaces, the Florida markets, the Latin leisure markets, And so we've put our capacity where people want to fly, and I think that's where we'll continue to focus. And I see, ultimately, I can't tell you what our competitors are going to do with capacity, but I think we feel really comfortable about how the U.S. arena is developing.
Rozzy Shanker
Great. And just looking a little longer term, I don't know how much of your time is spent thinking about 2022 and even 2023 at this point. But look, everyone's looking at 2019 as a baseline. But given the huge pent-up demand and the huge amount of excess savings with the consumer, Do you think there's a likelihood that we significantly surpass 2019 levels of travel in our 22, 23, and beyond? And if so, do you have the ability to service that without bringing on significantly more resources?
Travis
Thanks. Ravi, I wish I had a crystal ball that was that clear to know with some degree of confidence. Certainly, there's an enormous pent-up demand. Consumers have built up a lot of wealth over the pandemic. People have really lost the connection that they look to recreate and get back together, whether that's for leisure purpose or business. And I think over the course of the next 12 to 18 months, we're going to see a strong surge as markets reopen for different categories as well as different borders. Looking out into the next couple years, does that mean we'll be beyond 2019? I think it's possible. We have flex in our fleet and our order book to address that. We're not going to be limited. If there's demand out there, we're going to be positioned to be able to serve it.
Rozzy Shanker
Great. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Savi Siv, Raymond James.
Savi Siv
Hey, good morning. This is actually Nat on Persabi. Thanks for the time. A couple quick ones for me. Being that we're just on the international topic, in terms of leveraging your international partners, how do you plan on positioning your domestic network for that? Are there any changes necessary or priorities to your coastal hubs?
Julie
I think one of the things we're excited about as we come out of this pandemic is the strength of our international partners. As I mentioned earlier, international has taken much more of a reshape than domestic, given the fact that a lot of international carriers didn't receive government support through the pandemic and are going to either be much smaller or not be there as the pandemic way eases off. And so we are very encouraged about continuing to leverage our partner hubs as the first wave of pre-pandemic international travel comes back. And that's really what we've done so far. And I think, yes, there will be opportunities for us to reshape our domestic to better feed our internationals coming out of this than we had going in. But we'll deal with that as it occurs as opposed to anticipating it.
Savi Siv
Thanks, Glenn. And then one quick one on the fleet. The fuel efficiency is impressive. Seems like that's taking hold well, but do you expect that current level to hold when you're back to full utilization? Thanks again for the time.
Glenn
Yeah, well, as we said, about half of the 12% improvement that you saw in the quarter versus 2019 is really structural change driven by the fleet renewal that we've been talking about. So you can think of the remainder as conditional on where we are on the system. We did say, however, that as we look into the second quarter, we expect at least a 10% improvement on where we were for the same metric in 2019. So do expect continued fuel efficiency, certainly through the June quarter of significance.
Savi Siv
Very good, thanks for the clarification there.
Operator
Next question comes from Andrew DeDora, Bank of America.
Andrew DeDora
Hi, good morning, everyone. Glenn, just curious on your booking curve commentary in terms of how it continues to lengthen. Are there any data points you can put around this? Maybe how much of your 2Q budgeted revenues are already on the books versus how that typically compares to normal times or anything you can help quantify that for us?
Julie
Well, you know, through the pandemic, the booking curve had compressed. And starting about middle of last month, for the first time ever, we saw advanced bookings outside of the 60-day window as actually surpassing the percentage of bookings that were in that category in 19. So hopefully that can give you some context that people are feeling much more comfortable booking further out on the curve. And I think, you know, we're looking at several things. One is I think in the U.S., they're feeling much more comfortable in domestic flying, knowing they'll get their shots, knowing they'll be able to travel. Still waiting for more and more events to open and places to open. And that's kind of one of the things that continues to accelerate the domestic demand. And then really waiting for the internationals to reopen in earnest. I think people are now looking at it the fall and making some speculative bookings that Europe will be open in the fall. There are not a great number of those out there yet, but certainly there's interest out there. And I do believe that in the next month or two, we'll see at least some of the European countries attempting to reopen. And that will hopefully put pressure on the others to figure out ways to reopen their markets.
Andrew DeDora
Got it. Makes sense. my second question here just for ed you know i guess more bigger picture here they were obviously coming out of coming out of the pandemic you know after past downturns uh that meaningfully affected the industry there there have been some pretty big changes out there right um but this time around we really haven't seen that there's plenty of liquidity airlines survive no consolidation you know no hub closures you know has any of this surprised you um and why do you think a lot of these have not happened this time around?
Travis
Sure, Andrew. No, it doesn't surprise me at all, and it's primarily because of the government support that the U.S. airlines have received in terms of PSP. When you think about the significant levels of support and ensuring that that support goes to retaining employment across the industry as a national priority, There really isn't a lot of change, structural. You use that money to try to get your business back up, which was what they were intended to do. Certainly on an international level, you're seeing a lot of change. There's been a lot of international restructurings, bankruptcies, liquidations, changes, which I don't think we really fully appreciate the full extent of that. It's going to take some time yet to play out. I think it will help and benefit the U.S. industry because we're going to be competitively stronger.
Andrew
than in the international landscape than we were previously so we'll see we'll see how that plays out great thank you our next question comes from mike lindenberg deutsche bank hey good morning everyone hey just um two here the first one to glenn glenn have you um come up with an estimate of what you think the net revenue
Julie
hit that you incurred because of the middle seat block and I would be most focused on the month of March where you actually had pretty good demand and we're probably spilling traffic yes we've looked at that and I think maybe for the month of March in particular and clearly as we got to the end of or as the traffic continued to rise and confidence returned it got to be a more expensive proposition so for the month of March It was probably between 100 and 150 million of gross revenue that we left on the table, not blocking the middle seat, but really ensuring that demand came back and ensuring that our brand came out of this very strong. And I think had we had the choice to do it over again, we would do it in a heartbeat because I think it's something that really set Delta apart through this pandemic is putting consumer confidence and the confidence in health and safety first. was a very important part of how we've invested in our brand through this pandemic. So I think that's when we see this real confidence returning in the April-May time period. That was also one of our big cues to say it is time to let that go away.
Andrew
Thanks for the color there. And then just my second question to Gary. On the $1.85 to $1.95 fuel guide, Is there an embedded refinery loss in there? What is it if there is on a per gallon basis? And sort of a part two to that. As I recall, I believe the voluntary participation in the CORSIA program was supposed to commence, I believe, in 2021. In fact, is that true? And where is that going to show up on the Delta P&L if, in fact, that does kick in this year? Thank you.
Gary
Peter Carter- Good morning it's Peter Carter so from the course via perspective, this is the year, where we benchmark, so this is the year, where our our use will be determined for future. Peter Carter- For future years. Peter Carter- Okay, and it is completely voluntary, but of course we're participating.
Glenn
Yeah, and Mike, on the first part of your question, the $1.85 to $1.95, it does contemplate a loss at the refinery. It's not as substantial as what we experienced in the first quarter. You know, the fuel curve that we're using is generally what you see out there, crude in the low 60s and cracks in the $5 to $6 range.
Andrew
Great. Very helpful. Thanks. Thanks both. Thanks, everyone.
Operator
Our next question comes from David Vernon, Bernstein.
David Vernon
Good morning, guys. A couple questions for you on the contours of the revenue environment. If we look at kind of where average fares are sort of trending based on some of the ARC data and other sources out there, it looks like the average fare level is lower than we were in 2019. Can you talk to how much of that is sort of mixed and loss of business travel demand and what maybe a like-for-like leisure yield would look like today versus 2019?
Julie
Maybe I'll take a stab at that and give you a little bit of a forward look. We have clearly in the month of May, we're calling May a transition month because we are putting the middle seats back in, which gives us a substantial increase in our capacity levels. And we're expecting that May will come in with an absolute load factor of 75%. As we get into June and the more peak travel season and with those seats being absorbed into the marketplace, we believe that we will move from the 70s into the mid-80s. That gives us a little bit of an opportunity to start to manage yield a little bit more than we have in the past. And so structurally, we think we're in a pretty good space in terms of the structure of leisure travel and fares being within the range of where we were in 2019. And so as we head into the summer, we believe that the real pressure on domestic yields will come primarily from the lack of business travel, not from the structure themselves or not for leisure travelers paying significantly less than they did in 19. Does that help answer your question?
David Vernon
It does, I guess. And maybe just as a follow-up, as you think about getting the yield management sort of levers to work in the revenue optimization systems, how long do you think, from a domestic standpoint, like when do you think you'll actually be at a level where where you're, you're, you're, you're not just starting that process, but you're kind of more at a run rate of, of, of getting that full benefit of, of managing up yields.
Julie
All right. Well, remember the way the yield curve works is we're always saving for the last minute business traveler. Who's there are not that many of them out there this year, or they're substantially less than there were for 2019. So you won't see, I think the full impact of yield management, uh, flow into the revenue equation until a little bit later, probably early fall. So summer is going to be about managing leisure demand, and there's a little less opportunity in terms of saving that last seat for the business customer. So as we move through the year, I think we're going to get, say, September, October to really be in a much better position to manage yield through the traditional RM systems.
David Vernon
Great. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Catherine O'Brien, Goldman Sachs.
Catherine O'Brien
Good morning. Thanks so much for the time. So, a little bit of a shorter-term take on Ravi's question earlier. Regarding your plans to get to 75% of 2019 capacity in the fourth quarter, is that the structural maximum based on your fleet and crew retirements? And if we do see that wave of pent-up demand you discussed on your CNBC interview this morning, Ed, would you consider sourcing additional aircraft to be able to add more capacity back sooner? Or is that capacity plan that's really in line with your views on the pace of the recovery through your end? I realize a couple questions in there. Thank you.
Travis
Thanks, Katie. We certainly have in the very near term for this coming summer limitations to how much demand we can serve. And it's, you know, there's decisions that are taken six to 12 months in advance in terms of getting pilots into the right categories. That said, with the significant amount of capacity we're adding through the middle seat being returned to service, I don't think it's going to be a substantial impact on our ability to serve the demand that we see out there.
Catherine O'Brien
Got it. And then maybe one on the cost outlook. You know, you previously announced expectation that the company can achieve 2019 CASM on just 75% of 2019 ASMs. I guess first, is that still the expectation? And then second, is inflation contemplated in that figure? Or is that a like-for-like figure, assuming 2019 labor, maintenance costs, and the like that typically do see some annual inflation? Thank you.
Glenn
Katie, that's a number that we expect to hit this year. And I would say I'm really pleased with where we are. I mean, we are on the trajectory of The 6% to 9%, as I mentioned, that we're achieving in the second quarter, I mentioned the four points of rebuild that are included in there, but you heard Glenn talk about some of the international flying that we're not doing now. Our international mix is down quite a bit. In particular, we're not flying a lot of the long-haul international network yet. If you look like for like in what you're seeing in the second quarter, that's also about a five-point headwind. So, you know, kudos to the team here. Everybody has really embraced it, and they've just done a great job. The whole company really has come together around it. You know, as I mentioned, in 2020, it was really about aggressively attacking the cost base. We understand the mission this year is really getting that incremental leverage as the network rebuilds, and you're really seeing it in the second quarter if you take a look at how you know, the ASMs are coming on and the cost incurred to do that. It's really nice operating leverage. So very happy with where we are and, you know, fully expect to be on that 2019 number by the time we hit the fourth quarter.
Catherine O'Brien
Great. Thank you.
Travis
Katie, one other thing I'd like to add to the point. People probably don't appreciate the fact that for the last couple of quarters, Delta's actually been flying the most scheduled service of anyone out there. So when people worry whether we're going to have the capacity and the seats in the market to fill it, we're flying more scheduled service because we're blocking so many of the seats on the individual airplanes. As we open that inventory up, we're going to be right with anybody in terms of being able to provide service and strength into some of our key hubs and markets domestically. So we're not concerned in the short term that we're going to be short aircraft or or short staff.
Catherine O'Brien
Okay, great. Thanks for the additional color, Ed.
Operator
Our next question comes from Sheila Caligula, Jefferies.
Sheila Caligula
Good morning, everyone, and thank you. I guess somewhat related to the last question, how are you thinking about international markets coming back? A peer gave relatively upbeat guidance on international capacity for summer 2021. How are you thinking about that in terms of geographically? Are you seeing any dispersion in bookings so far?
Travis
Well, on the reopening of international borders, I think there's still many more questions than there are answers. We have focused on trying to get the US-UK travel corridor open. I think that's the most logical as the greatest value to us, and I think those are the markets where we'll start to see demand grow quickly when we can get that open and we're working with our partners at Virgin from the UK standpoint as well as across not just the airline industry but within the broader travel and hospitality sector to figure out how we can get it open for summer and we're making progress in that regard. When you think about other parts of Europe, there may be some occasional markets open this summer based on southern Mediterranean leisure traffic that people will be interested in. But I don't think you're going to see continental Europe open in any meaningful way till later in the year. We'll probably, unfortunately, miss much of the summer for most of continental Europe. On the other end of the extreme, I think Asia is going to be the long pole in the tent. I think that could take a year or more to start travel back up at scale. When you think about China and Japan and many of the other Pacific markets. The one market that we will be spending a lot of time trying to support is Korea with our partner at Korean. And South America is going to be somewhere in the middle. It's really going to be based on the success they have in trying to get the virus under containment in their countries, which we all know right now is a very difficult spot that they sit in. So that's probably late this year into the winter when you'll start to see South America open up.
Sheila Caligula
Thank you for that color. And then How should we think about progression of yields, particularly given that you guys have been successful in doing so? You mentioned summer's all about leisure and limited capacity. So how are you thinking about that progression on yield?
Julie
I think we're really focused on the unit revenues, and I think we outline the progression. And of course, there's a yield traffic trade-off that we're always monitoring. But when you think about getting 20 to 25 points of unit revenues sequentially between the end of March and June, That's a huge improvement and one that I think is indicative of what we'll be looking at for summer travel. And I outlined earlier, we think that the traffic will be in the mid-80s for peak summer domestic. And that presents opportunity to manage yield.
spk19
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Joseph Denardi.
Joseph Denardi
Oh, good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in. Maybe Ed or Gary, just looking at the fleet pre-COVID, you guys had talked about NMA as an option for 757 replacement. I'm wondering if that's still the thinking or maybe kind of what the updated thoughts are with that. Are there new options kind of out there on the used aircraft side that changes the approach or how are you all thinking about that? And maybe Kind of when do you need to order something for that?
Travis
Hey, Joe. As you probably have seen or read, the NMA is not being actively discussed at Boeing at the present time, but they certainly do have alternatives and new designs that they're thinking about, and we're engaged with those conversations. Nothing imminent or on the short horizon here, but we are looking at the longer-term opportunities with our friends in Seattle.
Joseph Denardi
Okay. And then you talked about March co-brand spend being up versus 2019. Seems very bullish to me. Can you talk about the longer term target and your ability to get to the $7 billion that you had talked about pre-COVID? Can you do better? And then specifically, how sensitive is that to corporate demand or not? It would seem more tied to leisure, but I'm just interested in your thoughts there. Thank you.
Julie
Well, clearly the co-branded cards are an array of purpose, including a lot of small and medium-sized enterprises where we're seeing a lot of success with the cards right now. And so I think we feel very, very confident that we can get to the $7 billion, and clearly the crisis has put a little delay on that, and we're sizing up how how significant that delay is and how we can shorten that delay by new and innovative programs to stimulate demand for the card. And I think, you know, we feel confident coming out of this that the card performed out or above our expectations of how it would do in a scenario, a recessionary scenario. And so we think a very bright future for that card. Thank you.
Travis
Now we'll go to our final analyst question.
Operator
Our next question comes from Miles Walton.
Miles Walton
Great. Thanks. Ed, maybe a reflective question. Given the level of government support and assistance the U.S. airline industry has gotten in the last 12 months, does it reframe how you and others in the U.S. will look at subsidization of international carriers? That was clearly a complaint pre-crisis. And is there a potential for almost a turning of the tables as they look at us and and the level of support we've gotten in the U.S.?
Travis
That's an interesting question, Miles, and certainly we've depended upon the support from our government here to be able to sustain an essential service for our economy. I don't know what that means in terms of long term. Clearly, the Middle Eastern subsidies were not there as a support tool for essential service. They were there to grow their economies and grow their businesses. So I think fundamentally the nature of the intervention, not just in the U.S., but around the world that we've seen over the last year, is of a very different character. And we'll see on the other end of this where the international markets land and the level of subsidies that continues. So Yes, we've been appreciative of that, but, no, I don't think it changes the character of what our issues were in the past.
Miles Walton
Okay. And maybe, Glenn, the shape of the quarter in June, obviously 1Q was January, February versus March. Is April, May, June more linear in the recovery profile?
Julie
Well, clearly the big step up is from April to May as the seats get released. And then June is just sequentially better. So more of a traditional seasonality moving from May to June. And really it's about the capacity absorption of that middle seat is the story of the second quarter. Clearly in the first few weeks of that, people have to leave to come back, so there will be some imbalances. And so we see the first two weeks of May being a little bit lighter, and then the second two weeks as you get into Memorial Day and the more traditional peak leisure period should be much stronger. Okay, thanks.
Travis
And that's going to wrap up the analyst portion of the call. I'll now turn it over to Tim Mapes, our Chief Marketing and Communications Officer, to start the media questions.
Tim Mapes
So, Travis, if we could just repeat the instructions as the members of the media line up in the queue. And just as a reminder, one question and one brief follow-up, and we'll try to get to as many of those as we can.
Operator
Yes, sir. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star 1 to ask a question. We'll pause just for a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions. Our first question comes from Leslie Joseph, CNBC.
Leslie Joseph
On the pilot training issues, how much of that is contributing to your costs? Same question for the maintenance issues you discussed before, just kind of the ramping up. And do you expect to hire pilots at all this year?
Travis
I think Leslie we mentioned that in the cost guidance for the second quarter the rebuild the maintenance and as well as some training is probably in the three to four point range of the six to nine percent growth that we're seeing over 2019 levels so it's a you know it's a meaningful amount that we're investing to get the business back we've not made a decision yet with respect to hiring but I do anticipate if we see the recovery continue to gain strength that before the end of the year we could very well be in the market for both pilot and flight attendant hiring again.
Sheila Caligula
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Alice Insider, Wall Street Journal.
Alice Insider
Hi, thanks so much. Yeah, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about what you might be seeing at some of these leisure destinations that are proving to be really popular Are there any constraints on any airports that you're looking at or that you've been talking to? Are any of those airports starting to get really crowded?
Julie
We haven't encountered that yet. We've been able to fly schedules that we wanted to fly to all those leisure destinations.
Alice Insider
Got it. I guess I'm curious if you're thinking about or planning to do any... you know, more point-to-point flying, you know, flights that overfly some of your hubs, you know, as some of your competitors have. Is that something that you're looking at ramping up for the summer?
Julie
You know, we have very, very strong performance from our core hubs and our coastal gateways, so we're going to stay focused on them.
Catherine O'Brien
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Mary Schlangenstein, Bloomberg News.
Mary Schlangenstein
Thank you very much. We saw Southwest yesterday increase the number of rapid reward points that it's going to take to redeem an award. They increased it by about 6%. I'm wondering if you can comment at all on whether that's something that Delta might be considering or we might see you do down the road here.
Julie
No, we're not considering that. And we're very excited about the value we're bringing to customers through our program. We've actually used the program to stimulate a lot of demand with really some very attractive offers that we've had in market across the U.S., and hopefully our frequent buyers are enjoying the benefits associated with those attractive offers.
Mary Schlangenstein
And can you talk about how you've seen the build-up point? I mean, very few people are traveling, especially internationally, as we all know, but what did you see keep up your level of of points being built. Was it credit card use? Did that surpass travel? Or can you comment on that at all?
Julie
Well, if you think about it, unfortunately, there weren't very many people traveling on the airline, which is a vast majority of the points that we issue. And on the credit card side, clearly that had a much more sustained. So we don't feel that there's a huge imbalance coming out of the pandemic, but the difference between what points have been accrued versus what we anticipate being able to supply in the marketplace. And we're pretty excited about people returning to use their points.
Mary Schlangenstein
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator
Our next question comes from David Slotnick, TBG.
David Slotnick
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the call and the question. I want to go back to what we were talking about before. As you pointed out, the likelihood of a UK-US tunnel is seemingly growing. I'm just curious if you can shed some light on what kind of demand you're expecting there and how you would plan to capture that demand, especially if it's a last-minute reopening kind of thing without having aircraft and crews overcommitted to some of the domestic and regional leisure markets.
Julie
Well, clearly what we've seen is when customers can travel internationally, they are willing to and excited about it. And I think when you think about The places that you can go today, whether or not it's the Caribbean or the Latin, we have said that there's more than 100% of the demand restored to those places. So we're over-indexing already versus where we were in 2019. So as those open, we will be able to supply. And as you think about it, there's still a significant number of our places that will be closed. So if the U.K. were to open, we'd be able to satisfy as many seats as people needed to – to fill the demand. I think we're excited about that and we'll see how it goes, but one thing I would have a takeaway is Americans want to travel and they want to travel abroad.
Operator
Our next question comes from Robert Silk, Travel Weekly.
Robert Silk
Yeah, hi. Where is Delta at as far as digital health passport development, and also, how much impact do you see digital health passports as being able to have, particularly when you talk about on a global scale, interoperably across nations, versus simply the vaccine from the end of the pandemic being really what brings back international demand?
Travis
So we're spending a considerable amount of time building an open-source platform Because as you probably know, there's a lot of different marketing technologies for digital health credentials, which I think is probably the more appropriate, versus passport, which gains a lot of negativity, calling in passports. The challenge we face is every government around the world is looking at their questions uniquely, and we need to start looking collectively at answers. So that'll be important, for example, as we reopen the US-UK border as to what technology will be available to actually evidence vaccination, if indeed the regulators even require a vaccination. It's not clear that that's even going to be a requirement. So we're working to try to keep as open a framework as possible, working with health providers, technology providers, and our customers to ensure that when they need to show that they've been vaccinated or have been tested, they can do it in as efficient a manner as possible.
Robert Silk
Okay, thanks.
Operator
Our next question comes from John Beers, AFP. Hello, John, your line is live. If your phone is on mute, please unmute.
John Beers
Thank you. Hi, John Beers at Ashland Trans Press. I wanted to ask, there was the whole controversy about the Georgia election law and briefly there was a boycott delta hashtag that went viral and so forth, and you came out strongly against the law after it passed. I wondered if you had seen any impact from customers either positive or negative in this period, if you could discuss whether you think there'll be any lasting impact on your brand with the public.
Travis
No, we haven't seen any significant impact from the different discussions that have been going on in Georgia.
Tim Mapes
With that, Travis, we have time for one final question before we turn it back over to Ed for his closing comments, please.
Operator
Yes, sir. Our next question comes from Elliot Blackburn, Argus Media.
Duane Finningworth
Good morning. Thanks for making the time for me. I just hoped you could talk a little bit about, especially in light of Delta's decarbonization goals, how does the trainer refinery fit into Delta, and how are you guys looking at that facility going forward now?
Glenn
Well, it fits in, you know, as it always has. It's an offset to our exposure to jet cracks, and that's one of the things that we are seeing. We had some questions about impact at the refinery, and one of the primary drivers of that, there are two, but the first primary driver is just the fact that jet cracks right now are very low. I mentioned they were in the $5 to $6 range. We've seen them historically in the $15 to $20 range. The other contributor to the near-term performance has just been a huge escalation in the cost of RINs, which have gone towards the end of the fourth quarter. They were in the $0.60 to $0.70 range, and they're well north of $1 now. That's a market dislocation that we just don't see as sustainable.
Duane Finningworth
Given that, especially with the rent uncertainty and also with your interest in SAF, are you guys looking at possibly converting that refinery to renewables, or would you change operations at that refinery going forward?
Glenn
I think it's safe to say we're always evaluating all our options. What we're not going to do, though, is let some of these short-term dislocations guide our actions. This is an asset that has contributed a lot to the company in the time that we've owned it, which is the better part of the last decade. We've got a world-class team there operating it. They're operating it safely. They're operating it efficiently. They're operating at cost effectively, and as I mentioned, it is serving the purpose that we've always had for it, which is an offset to the crack exposure that we have.
Tim Mapes
Thanks very much. With that, we'll turn it over to Ed for final closing comments. Thank you, everybody, for your participation today.
Travis
Yes, I'd like to thank you all for your participation and joining us this morning. As we sum up the call, it's clear that at Delta we've reached an important inflection point as we navigate the pandemic and move into the recovery phase of 2021. As the pace of vaccinations accelerate, our customers are reclaiming their lives. Air travel will be central as people reconnect with loved ones and business colleagues, replacing their screens with real human touch points as they venture out of their homes and communities to experience the world again. Looking forward, with customer demand steadily rising, there is a lot of runway ahead of us. As we open our middle seats to booking, and corporate and international begin to recover in earnest. And once the recovery of those segments are underway, we expect they'll prove to be a powerful cash and profitability lever to get our business back to where we need it to be. The strength of our balance sheet has been critical, and I'm excited that we're shifting our focus to de-levering, which will also be an important accelerator in our recovery. So with all of this, I have great confidence that Delta is well positioned to lead the industry in the months and years ahead. I thank all of the people at Delta for your tremendous job, particularly over these last 12 months in positioning us for success. And we look forward to welcoming all of you back aboard our flights in the days and months to come. Thank you all.
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's teleconference. You may now disconnect.
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