Deere & Company

Good morning and welcome to Deere and Company First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Your lines have been placed on listen only until the question and answer session of today's conference. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Josh Jepson, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Hello. Good morning. Us on the call today are Ryan Campbell, our Chief Financial Officer, and Brent Norwood, Manager, Investor Communications. Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's first quarter earnings and spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal 2020. After that, we'll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning and can be accessed at our website at johndeere.com slash earnings. First, a reminder, this call is being broadcast live on the internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere and Company. Any other use, recording, or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call. This call includes forward-looking statements concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8K and periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable gap measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeer.com slash earnings under quarterly earnings and events. Brent?

John Deere completed the first quarter with a solid performance and sees early signs of stabilization for the U.S. ag industry. Sentiment improved as some progress was made addressing market access for U.S. farmers through the passage of USMCA and the Phase I trade agreement with China. Meanwhile, markets such as Brazil got off to a slower start, even as underlying fundamentals and farm production remains high. At the same time, markets for our construction and forestry division slowed, dampening results as the division takes actions to manage inventory levels and adjust to lower levels of demand. Now, let's take a closer look at our first quarter results beginning on slide three. Enterprise net sales and revenues were down 4% to about $7.6 billion, while net sales for our equipment operations were down 6% to about $6.5 billion. Net income attributable to Deere and Company was up 4% to $517 million, or $1.63 per diluted share. The results included a pre-tax expense of $127 million relating to the voluntary employee separation program conducted during the quarter. Moving on to a review of our individual businesses, we'll first start with agriculture and turf on slide four. Net sales were down 4% in the quarter-over-quarter comparison, primarily driven by lower shipment volumes and the impact of currency translation partially offset by positive price realization. Price realization in the quarter was positive by three points. while currency translation was negative by a point. Operating profit was $373 million, resulting in an 8.3% operating margin for the division. The year-over-year increase was primarily due to positive price realization and lower production costs, partially offset by lower volume as well as a $78 million charge relating to the voluntary employee separation program. Before reviewing our industry outlook, we'll first provide commentary on the regional dynamics impacting ag markets and deer operations around the globe, starting on slide five. In the U.S., farmer sentiment began to show early signs of stabilization during the quarter, as uncertainty surrounding market access abated with the passage of USMCA and the signing of the phase one trade agreement with China. Additionally, U.S. farm cash receipts are expected to increase in 2020, aided in part by the recently announced third tranche of market facilitation payments, which totaled $3.6 billion, further enhancing farmer liquidity. While market access certainly has improved sentiment, farmers will likely remain cautious until ag exports to China begin to flow. Given the seasonality for soybean demand, exports to China are unlikely to increase significantly until harvest season. As a result, we do not expect significant changes in the replacement cycle during fiscal year 2020. Furthermore, at this point in the year, many of our large ag products are already sold ahead via early order programs that have now closed. Despite limited changes to the current replacement cycle, we were encouraged by the results of the final two phases of our combined early order program. After a slow start, This stronger finish resulted in overall program orders ending up low single digits in the U.S., while down double digits in Canada. In total, the program ended down a high single digit on a unit basis, but down just a low single digit on a revenue basis due to price increases. Meanwhile, our tractor order book for fiscal year 2020 is healthy, with a strong sold ahead position indicating a positive reception to our newly redesigned 8R, featuring an industry first, fully integrated four track option for a rigid frame row crop tractor. The strong order book reflects in part measures we took during 2019 to manage field inventory, allowing us to produce in line with retail sales in 2020, which is currently still our plan. Moreover, the actions we took in 2019 resulted in desirable field inventory to sales ratios that are significantly below the rest of the industry and will continue to manage new equipment inventory tightly throughout the year. Meanwhile, large ag used inventory levels are in their healthiest position in years, which is supportive of a stable price environment for used equipment. In contrast to the U.S., our field inventories, though considerably lower than last year remain elevated in Canada. This is due to challenging industry conditions, namely existing trade barriers on Canadian canola and a declining exchange rate. Net farm income is expected to increase this year but will still be below long-term averages. As a result, we don't see much change on the equipment replacement cycle in 2020 and will focus on and we'll focus on continuing to reduce our field inventories so that we can more closely match production to retail sales in 2021. Shifting to South America and Europe on slide six. Record soybean production and favorable exchange rates continue to drive very favorable producer margins in Brazil this year. These healthy soybean dynamics, coupled with an improving outlook for sugar prices, have improved overall fundamentals for the country in 2020. Despite these sound fundamentals, farmers are somewhat cautious regarding equipment investment, as the impact of shifting trade dynamics have yet to be determined. Brazilian farmers were also anticipating further clarity and possibly better terms on government-sponsored financing for farm equipment, which contributed to lower retail sales at the end of 2019 and lower shipments through the beginning of 2020. On that note, In late January, the government announced a new financing program that will begin the transition to unsubsidized market-based rates for ag equipment. This development should provide greater clarity on funding options for farmers and potentially support stronger equipment sales for the second half of the year. Meanwhile, sentiment in Argentina remains subdued as farmers adjust to higher export taxes on corn and soybeans. On a positive note, This year's crop is very strong, and margins are expected to be positive even in the face of higher taxes. Moving on to Europe. Even though results for winter crop conditions have been mixed, overall ag fundamentals have mostly improved year over year, as the north region is recovering from last year's drought. Margins in dairy and livestock remain supportive, while wheat prices continue above break-even levels. But despite the modest improvement in fundamentals, sentiment does remain soft. Concerning Deere's operations within Europe, we continue to drive greater degrees of optimization and focus to our business. Over the last few months, we've began work on rationalizing the operations of our sales branches and shifting more resources to our frontline selling efforts. We are also concentrating our product portfolio towards large ag with a deeper focus on precision technologies. And we are accelerating the implementation of our Dealer of Tomorrow strategy in the region more closely to what we have done in North America to ensure our channel is appropriately scaled and optimized in order to deliver and support higher degrees of technology in the coming years. With that context, let's turn to our 2020 Ag and Turf Industry Outlook on slide seven. Unchanged from last quarter, we expect ag industry sales in the US and Canada to be down about 5% for 2020, reflecting a stable environment in the US, offset by more challenging conditions in Canada. Moving on to Europe, the industry outlook is forecast to be flat in 2020, as most regions impacted from last year's drought are expected to recover with favorable production for the year. Furthermore, the outlook for the dairy sector remains stable. In South America, industry sales of tractors and combines are projected to be flat for the year. Fundamentals in Brazil remain positive as a result of high levels of grain production combined with healthy producer margins and restored liquidity in the financing market. However, other Latin American markets like Mexico and to a greater extent Argentina face near-term challenges due to the potential for adverse policy impacting the ag sector. Shifting to Asia, industry sales are expected to be flat with growth in India offset by slowness in China. Lastly, industry retail sales of turf and utility equipment in the US and Canada are projected to be flat in 2020 based on stable general economic factors. Moving on to our ag and turf forecast on slide eight. Fiscal year 2020 sales of worldwide ag and turf equipment are still forecasted to be down between 5% to 10%, which includes expectations of two points of positive price realization and a currency headwind of about a point. It's important to note that our sales forecast continues to contemplate producing below retail demand for small tractors in 2020. For the division's operating margin, our full-year forecast is ranging between 10.5% and 11.5%. unchanged from last quarter. Additionally, when modeling the full year, keep in mind that some of our large ag production schedules include lower shipment volumes in the second quarter due to factory changeovers resulting from the introduction of the new 8R series tractor and a limited production build of the new X series combine. Now, let's focus on construction and forestry on slide 9. For the quarter, net sales of about $2.044 billion were down 10%, primarily due to lower shipment volumes and the impact of currency translation partially offset by positive price realization. Operating profit moved lower year over year to $93 million, primarily due to lower shipment volumes as well as $24 million in expenses relating to the voluntary employee separation program. On the positive, price realization and currency benefited profit for the quarter. Let's turn to our 2020 Construction and Forestry Industry Outlook on slide 10. Construction equipment industry sales in the U.S. and Canada are forecast to be down between 5 to 10 percent, reflecting mixed economic indicators and elevated levels of field inventory. For the year, employment, GDP, and housing starts all remain stable drivers of demand, while oil and gas capex and rental capex are mostly down year over year. Moving on to global forestry, we now expect the industry to decline 5 to 10 percent this year, with the U.S. and Canada markets declining more than the rest of the world as lumber and pulp prices soften in North America. Moving to the CNF outlook on slide 11. This year's construction and forestry 2020 sales are still forecast to be down between 10 to 15 percent compared to last year. The year-over-year decline is driven mostly by a mid-single-digit underproduction to retail construction equipment volumes compared to the building of inventory in 2019. The order book remains within our historical 30- to 60-day replenishment window and is consistent with our outlook. Our net sales guidance for the year includes expectations of about one point of positive price realization and a currency headwind of about one point. For the division's operating margin, our full year forecast is ranging between 9.5% to 10.5% unchanged from last quarter. Let's move now to our financial services operations on slide 12. Worldwide financial services net income attributable to Deere and Company was $137 million in the first quarter. For fiscal year 2020, net income forecast remains $600 million, which contemplates a tax rate between 24 and 26 percent. The provision for credit losses in 2020 is forecast at 18 basis points, reflecting a high degree of credit quality within our current portfolio. Slide 13 outlines our guidance for net income, our effective tax rate, and operating cash flow. Before reviewing the components of our guidance, it's worth noting that we are monitoring the coronavirus situation and working closely with the Chinese provincial authorities primarily focused on the well-being of our employees and a safe return to production. In terms of overall exposure, the biggest potential impact to Deere is in relation to the supply base that serves our international operations. The situation remains fluid, and we are working closely with our suppliers and logistics providers. Our full-year outlook for net income remains unchanged and is forecast to be in a range of $2.7 to $3.1 billion, with an effective tax rate projected to be between 22 to 24%. Cash flow from the equipment operations forecast is also unchanged and expected to be in a range of $3.1 to $3.5 billion in 2020. The guidance reflects a potential $300 million voluntary contribution to our OPEB plan. I will now turn the call over to Ryan Campbell for closing comments. Brian?