Deere & Company

Good morning and welcome to the Deere and Company Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Your lines have been placed on a listen only until the question and answer session of today's conference. I would now like to turn the call over to Josh Jepson, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Thanks, Robin. Hello. Also on the call today are Ryan Campbell, our CFO. Jamie Hindman, our Chief Technology Officer, and Brent Norwood, Manager, Investor Communications. Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's fourth quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal 2021. After that, we'll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com slash earnings. First, a reminder, This call is being broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere and Company. Any other use, recording, or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call. This call includes forward-looking comments concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8K and periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call may also include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, or GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable gap measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeer.com slash earnings under quarterly earnings and events. I'll now turn the call over to Brent Norwood.

John Deere demonstrated strong execution in the fourth quarter, resulting in a 12% margin for the equipment operations and net income exceeding our full year forecast. Despite significant uncertainty early in the year for large ag markets, fundamentals improved throughout the fourth quarter, driving growth prospects for 2021. Meanwhile, markets for our construction and forestry division also improved in the fourth quarter, leading to a solid finish to the year and modest levels of recovery projected for fiscal year 21. Now, let's take a closer look at our year-end results for 2020, beginning on slide three. For the full year, net sales and revenue were down 9% to $35.54 billion, while net sales for equipment operations were down 10% to $31.272 billion. Net income attributable to Deere and Company was $2.751 billion, or $8.69 per diluted share. Net income for the year was negatively affected by impairment charges, losses on business disposals, and employee separation costs of $458 million after tax. For the same periods in 2019, the similar charges were $82 million. Slide 4 shows the results for the fourth quarter. Net sales and revenue were down 2% to $9.731 billion, while net sales for the equipment operation were down 1% to $8.659 billion. Net income attributable to Deere and Company for the quarter was $757 million or $2.39 per diluted share. Fourth quarter net income was negatively affected by impairment charges and employee separation costs of $211 million after tax compared to $74 million for the same period in 2019. Turning to a review of our individual businesses starting with agriculture and turf on slide five. Net sales were up 8% compared to the fourth quarter last year, primarily due to price realization and higher shipment volumes, partially offset by the unfavorable effects of currency translation. Price realization in the quarter was positive by five points, while currency translation was negative by one point. Operating profit was $860 million, resulting in a 13.9% operating margin for the division. The year-over-year increase was driven by price realization and lower R&D expenses and reduced SG&A, improved shipment volumes and mix, and lower warranty expenses. The items were partially offset by impairments and employee separation expenses, which totaled $164 million in the quarter. Please note that the $153 million shown on the waterfall is net of $11 million in separation costs from 2019. For the full year, the Ag and Turf Division incurred $286 million in non-recurring charges, including employee separation expenses, impairments, and a loss on a sale. Before reviewing our industry outlook, we'll first provide commentary on the regional dynamics impacting ag markets and deer operations around the globe, starting on slide six. In the U.S., farmer sentiment showed improvement over the quarter. as the combination of government support and improved commodity prices boosted farm income prospects for the year. Meanwhile, concerns over market access temporarily subsided, with exports to China rebounding compared to last year. Stocks to use and carry out estimates for corn and soybeans are now forecast at multi-year lows due to diminished production on account of some regionally dry weather and a diretro storm in August, as well as increased export activity. The improvement in fundamentals and farmer sentiment is reflected in the progress of our early order programs. At this time, we've concluded all three phases of our planter and sprayer programs, while our combine program recently finished phase two. Sales for planters are up 10% compared to last year, with sprayers and combines up even further. Meanwhile, our large ag tractor order book has strengthened over the last quarter with orders up nicely compared to the previous year. Lastly, retail activity picked up in the fourth quarter, leaving new and used inventory positions at multi-year lows. Shifting to South America, record soybean production, higher commodity prices, and favorable exchange rates continue to drive positive producer margins in Brazil this year. As a result, activity accelerated in the fourth quarter and far exceeded our forecast. making a very strong finish to 2020. For fiscal year 2021, the order book is quite strong, reflecting the positive fundamentals with order coverage now extending well into the first half of the year. Similar to North America, the strong finish to the year in Brazil depleted equipment inventory levels below historic averages, keeping momentum for new equipment demand healthy as we begin the year. In Europe, Healthy prices for small grains such as wheat have boosted sentiment for arable farmers and spurred demand in the back half of 2020. Overall, arable margins should see modest gains this year, though results vary throughout some regions experiencing lower production due to dry conditions. Meanwhile, dairy and livestock producers may experience some pressure in fiscal year 21 from soft dairy margins and growing concerns with respect to African swine fever. Importantly, Deere's operations in Europe have benefited from a more focused strategy and demonstrated an uptick in large ag market share as well as much improved profitability for the region. Looking ahead, the tractor order book is up relative to last year, providing solid visibility into 2021. Turning to Asia Pacific, key markets like India and Australia rebounded nicely from the early pandemic lockdowns and are expected to resume growth in fiscal year 21. Meanwhile, operations and other markets are benefiting from some of the disciplined portfolio actions we've taken to date. With that context, let's turn to our 2021 Ag and Turf Industry Outlook on a slide seven. In the US and Canada, we expect ag industry sales to be up between five to 10% for the year. The increase year-over-year reflects improved fundamentals in the ag sector as well as the historically low inventory levels at the start of the year. Moving on to Europe, the industry outlook is forecast to be flat to up 5%, with strength in arable offsetting some weakness in dairy and livestock. In South America, we expect an industry sales increase of about 5%, with solid visibility into the first half of the year, especially in Brazil. Industry sales in Asia are forecast to be down slightly, though key markets for deer are performing slightly better. Lastly, sales of turf and utility equipment are expected to be flat to up 5% following a solid year in 2020. Moving on to our ag and turf forecast on slide 8. Fiscal year 2021 sales of worldwide ag and turf equipment are forecast to be up between 10% and 15%. The incremental increase relative to the industry guidance reflects plans to recover inventory levels in small ag, which ended the year at historic lows for inventory to sales ratios. The forecast also includes expectations of three points of positive price realization, as well as a currency tailwind of about one point. For the division's operating margin, our full year forecast Now, let's focus on construction and forestry on slide 9. For the quarter, net sales of $2.461 billion were down 16% primarily due to lower shipment volumes partially offset by price realization. Operating profit moved lower year-over-year to $196 million due to lower sales volumes and mix, impairments, and employee separation expenses. The decrease in profit was partially offset by price realization and lower R&D expenses and reduced SG&A, lower warranty expenses, and improved production costs. The total costs for impairments and employee separation charges were $76 million for the quarter, while the full-year costs were $184 million. Let's turn to our 2021 Construction and Forestry Industry Outlook on slide 10. Construction equipment industry sales in the U.S. and Canada are now forecast to be down about 5%, with continued uncertainty expected in the oil and gas and non-residential sectors. Meanwhile, compact construction equipment industry sales are expected to increase about 5% as the housing market fundamentals continue to be positive through 2021. Moving on to global forestry, we now expect the industry to be flat to up 5% as a recovery in lumber demand, particularly in North America, should lead to increased production throughout the year. Moving to the CNF division outlook on slide 11. Deere's construction and forestry 2021 net sales are forecast to be up between 5% to 10% compared to last year. Our net sales guidance for the year includes expectations of about one point of positive price realization and a currency tailwind of about one point. We expect the division's operating margin to be ranged between 9% to 10% for the year, benefiting from price, volume, and non-recurring expenses from 2020. Let's move now to our financial services operations on slide 12. Worldwide financial services net income attributable to Deere and Company in the fourth quarter was $186 million, benefiting from lower impairments and reduced losses on operating lease residual values and favorable financing spreads, partially offset by a higher provision for credit losses and employee separation expenses. For fiscal year 2021, the net income forecast is $630 million, which contemplates a tax rate between 24% to 26%. The provision for credit losses forecast for 2021 is 27 basis points. Before moving on to the 2021 company outlook, I'd like to welcome our Chief Technology Officer, Jamie Hindman, to the call. Jamie recently assumed the CTO position and played a pivotal role in shaping our smart industrial strategy and vision for Deere's technology stack. Jamie?