Deere & Company

Good morning and welcome to Deere and Company First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Your lines have been placed on listen only until the question and answer session of today's conference. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Josh Jepson, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Thank you. Good morning. Also on the call today are Ryan Campbell, our Chief Financial Officer, and Brent Norwood, Manager, Investor Communications. Today we'll take a closer look at Deere's first quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal 21. After that, we'll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning, and it can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com slash earnings. First, a reminder, this call is being broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere and Company. Any other use, recording, or transmission of any portion of this copyright broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call. This call includes forward-looking comments concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8K and periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call may include non- may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, or GAAP. Additionally, information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeer.com slash earnings under quarterly earnings and events. I'll now turn the call over to Brent.

John Deere demonstrated strong execution in the first quarter, resulting in a 17% margin for the equipment operations. Ag fundamentals improved significantly throughout the first quarter, and the improved sentiment is reflected in the most recent status of our order books and early order programs. Meanwhile, markets for our construction and forestry division also improved in the first quarter, leading to improved levels of profitability and a heightened outlook for the rest of the year. Slide 3 shows the results for the first quarter. Net sales and revenue were up 19% to $9.1 billion, while net sales for the equipment operations were up 23% to just over $8 billion. Net income attributable to Deere and Company was $1.224 billion, or $3.87 per diluted share. During the first quarter of 2021, the company recorded impairments totaling $50 million pre-tax to certain long-lived assets. These impairments were more than offset by a favorable indirect tax ruling in Brazil of $58 million pre-tax. In comparison to last year, the quarter also benefited from minimal employee separation costs, which represented $127 million pre-tax in the first quarter of 2020. Before transitioning to a review of our business divisions, I'd like to highlight a few changes to our segment reporting as shown on slide 4. As you probably already noticed in our press release, the company implemented a new segment reporting structure beginning in fiscal year 2021 to align with the recent implementation of the new strategy and operating model, which was announced last summer. As a result, the company's agriculture and turf operation was bifurcated into two new segments. The production and precision agriculture segment is responsible for developing and delivering global equipment and technology solutions for production-scale growers of large grains, small grains, cotton, and sugar. Main products include large and certain mid-sized tractors, combines, cotton pickers, sugarcane harvesters, seeding, and application equipment. The small agriculture and turf segment is responsible for developing and delivering market-driven products to support mid-sized and small growers, as well as turf customers. The operations are principally organized to support production systems for dairy and livestock, high-value crops, and turf and utility operators. Primary products include certain mid-sized and small tractors, as well as hay and forage equipment, riding and commercial lawn equipment, golf course equipment, and utility vehicles. There were no reporting changes for the construction and forestry and financial services segments. As a result, the company will now report across these four segments. Now, let's turn to a review of our production and precision ag business starting on the slide five. Net sales of 3.069 billion were up 22% compared to the first quarter last year, primarily due to higher shipment volumes and price realization, partially offset by the unfavorable effect of currency translation. Price realization in the quarter was positive by nearly eight points, while currency translation was negative by one point. Operating profit was $643 million, resulting in a 21% operating margin for the division compared to an 8.7% margin for the same period last year. The year-over-year increase was driven by positive price realization, higher shipment volumes and sales mix, and a $53 million favorable indirect tax ruling in Brazil. These items were partially offset by unfavorable effects of foreign currency exchange, Excluding the impact of one-time items, such as the favorable tax ruling, first quarter margins were around 19.5%. Also, when comparing to last year, keep in mind that the results in the prior period included employee separation costs of $42 million. With respect to price realization, the above-average results for the quarter were primarily driven by a few different factors. While North American list prices were up slightly above average, the primary drivers of price came from significant mid-year price adjustments made in 2020 for select foreign markets to offset unfavorable currency movements. Additionally, certain U.S. and Canada products also had mid-year adjustments in 2020 as a result of product launches, such as the new ADAR in May of last year. Lastly, the current low inventory levels across the industry have led to lower overall incentive spending, thus boosting net price realizations. We do anticipate net price realization to moderate closer to normal levels towards the second half of the year. Shifting focus to small ag and turf on slide six. Net sales were up 27%, totaling $2.515 billion in the first quarter. The increase was driven primarily by higher shipment volumes, price realization, and the favorable effects of currency translation. Price realization in the quarter was positive by nearly six points. while currency translation was positive by two points. For the quarter, operating profit was $469 million, resulting in an 18.6% operating margin for the division compared to a 7.9% margin for the same period last year. The year-over-year increase was due to higher shipment volumes, positive sales mix, and price realization, while results for the prior period were affected by voluntary employee separation expenses of about $36 million. Slide 7 shows our industry outlooks for ag and turf markets globally. In the U.S. and Canada, we expect industry sales of large ag equipment to be up between 15 and 20 percent for the year, reflecting improved fundamentals in the ag sector. Our outlook is guided, in part, by the results of our early order programs and tractor order book. Our crop care early order program, which ended in October, finished with unit orders up double digits compared to the prior year. In addition, we completed our combine early order program in January, with results also up double digits and outpacing the results of our crop care program. Furthermore, our large tractor order book now extends into the fourth quarter and has an increased production schedule relative to last year. Meanwhile, we expect industry sales of small ag and turf equipment in the U.S. and Canada to be up about 5%, Deere's forecasted production will be higher than the industry, reflecting our plans to increase inventory levels in small ag, which ended the year at historic lows. Moving on to Europe, the industry outlook is forecast to be up about 5% as higher commodity prices strengthen business conditions in the arable segment, offsetting some weakness in dairy and livestock. Importantly, our tractor order book in Mannheim now extends into the fourth quarter, providing good visibility through much of fiscal year 21. Furthermore, we've seen continued progress executing our regional strategy focused on large and precision ag. In South America, we expect an industry sales increase of about 10%. The confluence of higher commodity prices, strong production, and a favorable currency environment have boosted profitability of farmers, driving equipment demand for the year. Despite limited government financing programs, Private debt is more widely available this year, supporting continued strength in equipment demand. Industry sales in Asia are forecast to be down slightly, though key markets for deer are performing slightly better. Moving on to our segment forecast on slide eight. For production and precision ag, net sales are forecast to be between $15.5 and $16.5 billion in fiscal year 21. The forecast includes a currency tailwind of about a point and expectations of just under six points of positive price realization for the full year. For the segment's operating margin, our full year forecast is ranged between 19.5% and 20.5%, with solid performance across the various geographical regions. Slide 9 shows our forecast for the small ag and turf segment. Net sales in fiscal year 21 are forecast to be between $10.5 and $11.5 billion. The guidance includes expectations for two points of positive price realization and a favorable currency impact of about three points. The segment's operating margin is forecast to range between 14.5 and 15.5%. Now, let's focus on construction and forestry on slide 10. For the quarter, net sales of $2.467 billion were up 21%, primarily due to higher shipment volumes, price realization, and the favorable effects of currency translation. Additionally, Vertcon ended its practice of reporting on a one-month lag, resulting in four months of Vertcon activity in the quarter. The quarter's results were boosted by three points of positive price realization and a currency tailwind of about one point. Operating profit moved higher year-over-year to $268 million due to higher shipment volumes and sales mix and price realization. The increase in profit was partially offset by higher production costs and impairments of long-lived assets related to an asphalt plant factory in Germany. Also keep in mind that last year's results included voluntary employee separation costs of about $24 million. Let's turn to our 2021 Construction and Forestry Industry Outlook on slide 11. North American construction equipment industry sales are now forecast to be up about 5%. while sales of compact construction equipment are expected to be up about 10%. End markets for earth moving and compact equipment have benefited primarily from the strength in the housing market, as well as a modest recovery from trough conditions in the oil and gas sector. Furthermore, current demand levels reflect the benefit from the industry's collective response managing inventory levels tightly during the early days of the pandemic. In forestry, we now expect the industry to be up between 5 to 10% as a recovery in lumber demand, particularly in North America, is leading to increased production throughout the year. Moving to the CNF segment outlook on slide 12. Deere's construction and forestry 2021 net sales are now forecast to be between 10.5 and 11 billion. Our net sales guidance for the year includes expectations of two points of positive price realization and a currency tailwind of about two points. We expect the segment's operating margin to be ranged between 10.5 and 11.5% for the year, benefiting from price, volume, and non-recurring expenses from 2020. Let's move now to our financial services operations on slide 13. Worldwide, financial services net income attributable to Deere and Company in the first quarter was $204 million, benefiting from favorable financing spreads, lower losses on operating leases, and a lower provision for credit losses. For fiscal year 2021, the net income forecast is now $730 million. The provision for credit loss forecast for 2021 is 23 basis points when compared to the average portfolio managed. Slide 14 outlines our guidance for net income. our effective tax rate, and operating cash flow. For fiscal year 21, our full-year outlook for net income is now forecast to be between $4.6 to $5 billion. The guidance incorporates an effective tax rate projected to be between 24% to 26%. Lastly, cash flow from the equipment operations is expected to be in a range of $4.6 to $5 billion, and contemplates a $700 million voluntary contribution to our OPEP plan. I will now turn the call over to Ryan Campbell for closing comments. Ryan?