D.R. Horton, Inc.

Greetings and welcome to the third quarter 2019 earnings conference call for D.R. Horton, America's builder, the largest builder in the United States. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Jessica Hansen, Vice President and Vest Relations for D.R. Horton. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning. Welcome to our call to discuss our results for the third quarter of fiscal 2019. Before we get started, today's call may include comments that constitute forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to D.R. Horton on the date of this conference call, and D.R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. Additional information about issues that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton's annual report on Form 10-K, and most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This morning's earnings release can be found on our website at .drogorton.com, and we plan to file our 10-Q this week. After this call, we will post an investor presentation and supplementary data to our investor relations site on the presentation section under News and Events for your reference. The supplementary data relates to our humbling return on inventory, home sales growth margin, changes in active selling communities, our product mix, and mortgage operations. Now, I will turn the call over to David Auld, our president and CEO.

Thank you, Jessica, and good morning. In addition to Jessica, I am pleased to be joined on this call by Mike Murray, our executive vice president and chief operating officer, and Bill Wheat, our executive vice president and chief financial officer. The D.R. Horton team delivered a strong third quarter of 2019. Our consolidated revenues increased 11% to $4.9 billion. Pre-tax income was $627 million, and our pre-tax profit margin was 12.8%. The spring selling season was solid, and our home-dutton gross margins improved sequentially. These results reflect the strength of our operational teams, our ability to leverage the D.R. Horton scale across our broad geographic footprint, and our product positioning to offer affordable homes across multiple brands. As we have discussed on our last few calls, affordability concerns caused some moderation of demand for homes in late fiscal 2018 and early fiscal 2019. And in response, we increased sales incentives to improve our sales pace. Interest rates on mortgage loans have since decreased, and we reduced the level of incentives offered as the spring progressed. We continue to see good demand and a limit to supply homes at affordable prices across our markets. At the same time, economic fundamentals and financing availability remains solid. We are pleased with our product positioning and our sales volumes of the June quarter and in July, which were in line with our expectations and normal seasonality. Our strategic focus is to continue consolidating market share while growing our revenues and profits, generating strong annual cash flows and maintaining a flexible financial position. With a conservative balance sheet that includes a ample supply of homes, lots and land to support growth, we are well positioned for the remainder of 2019 and future years, right?

Net income attributable to D.R. Horton for the third quarter of fiscal 2019 increased 5% to $475 million compared to $454 million in the prior year quarter. And net income for diluted share increased 7% to $1.26. Our consolidated pre-tax income for the quarter increased to $627 million, and our home building pre-tax income was $562 million. Our third quarter home sales revenues increased 11% to $4.7 billion on 15,971 homes closed, up from $4.3 billion on 14,114 homes closed in the prior year. Our average closing price for the quarter was down 2% from last year to $296,400, while the average size of our homes closed was down 3%, reflecting our ongoing efforts to keep our homes affordable. Bill? Net

sales orders in the third quarter increased 6% to 15,588 homes, and the up 8% from $4.4 billion in the prior year. Our average number of active selling communities increased 9% from the prior year and 1% sequentially. Excluding the builders we acquired earlier this year, both our third quarter net sales orders and our average number of active selling communities increased 3% year over year. Our average sales price on net sales orders in the third quarter was $302,000, up 1% from the prior year. The cancellation rate for the third quarter was 20%, compared to 21% in the same quarter last year. Tessa?

Our gross profit margin on home sales revenue in the third quarter was 20.3%, up 100 basis points sequentially from the March quarter. The sequential increase in our gross margin from the March to June quarter exceeded our expectations and was primarily due to lower incentives and lumber costs. Based on today's market conditions, we currently expect our home sales gross margin in the fourth quarter to increase sequentially from the third quarter, subject to possible fluctuations due to product and geographic mix as well as the relative impact of warranty, litigation and purchase accounting. Bill?

In the third quarter, home building SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was 8.1%, flat with the prior year quarter. Year to date, home building SG&A expense was .8% of revenues, compared to .7% last year. We remain focused on managing our SG&A efficiently while ensuring that our infrastructure adequately supports opportunities to increase our market

share over the long term. Mike? We ended the quarter with 29,200 homes in inventory. 14,800 of our homes were unsold, with 9,200 in various stages of construction and 5,600 completed. Our current inventory of homes puts us in a great position to finish the year strong. Our home building investments in lots, land and development during the third quarter totaled $875 million, of which $470 million was for land and finished lots and $405 million was for land development. Our underwriting criteria and operational expectations for new communities remain consistent, at a minimum of 20% annual pre-tax return on inventory and a return of our initial cash investment within 24 months. David?

At June 30th, our home building lot position consisted of 300,000 lots, of which 39% were owned and 61% were controlled. 29% of our total owned lots are finished and 55% of our controlled lots are or will be finished when we purchase them. We continue working to increase our lot position being developed by third parties by supporting the expansion of 4-star's national lot manufacturing platform and expanding our relationship with lot developers across the country. Our current lot portfolio includes an ample supply of lots for homes at affordable price points and continues to provide a strong competitive advantage. Jessica?

Financial services pre-tax income in the third quarter increased to $48.1 million from $30.3 million in the prior year. Financial services pre-tax profit margin for the quarter was .2% up from .2% in the prior year due to improved loan sale execution. 98% of our mortgage company's loan originations during the quarter related to homes closed via home building operations and our mortgage company handled the financing for 58% of dear home buyers. FHA and VA loans accounted for 45% of the mortgage company's volume. Borrowers originating loans with VHA mortgage this quarter had an average FICO score of 720 and an average loan to value ratio of 88%. First time home buyers represented 51% of the closings handled by our mortgage company up from 48% in the prior year reflecting our continued focus on offering affordable homes for entry level buyers. Mike?

4-star, our majority owned subsidiary, is a publicly traded residential lot manufacturer now operating in 50 markets across 20 states. At June 30th, 4-star owned and controlled approximately 37,400 lots of which 24,100 are under contract with D.R. Horton or subject to a right of first offer. During the nine months ended June 30th, 4-star delivered 2,224 lots and is on track to deliver 4,000 lots in fiscal 2019 generating $320 to $350 million of revenue and deliver approximately 10,000 lots in fiscal 2020 generating $700 to $800 million of revenue. These expectations are for 4-star's stand-alone results. 4-star is making steady progress in building its operational platform and capital structure to support its significant growth plans. During the quarter, 4-star issued $350 million of senior notes. 4-star's liquidity, capital base, and lot position at June 30th are sufficient to support their planned deliveries through fiscal 2021. Subject to market conditions, 4-star expects to opportunistically access the equity and debt capital markets to provide additional long-term growth capital while managing to a net leverage ratio of 40% or less. 4-star hosted their quarterly earnings call last Thursday and has an updated presentation on their investor site at .4star.com that describes 4-star's unique lot manufacturing model and its significant growth and value creation opportunity. David?

DHA Communities is our multifamily rental company focused on suburban garden-style apartments with current operations primarily in Texas, Arizona, and Florida. During the quarter, DHA Communities sold its second apartment project located in Houston for $60 million and recognized a gain on sale of ,600,000. DHA Communities has five projects under active construction, one project that was substantially complete at the end of the quarter, which we currently expect to be sold in early fiscal 2020. DHA Communities total assets were $167 million at June 30th. Bill?

Our balanced capital approach focuses on being flexible, opportunistic, and disciplined. Our balance sheet strength and multi-year earnings and cash flow generation have increased our flexibility and we are utilizing our strong position to enhance the long-term value of the company. During the first nine months of fiscal 2019, our cash provided by home building operations was $605.7 million. At June 30th, we had $1.6 billion of home building liquidity, including $578 million of unrestricted home building cash and $1 billion of available capacity on our revolving credit facility. Our home building leverage ratio improved 370 basis points from a year ago to 18.5 percent. The balance of our home building public notes outstanding at the end of the quarter was $1.9 billion and we have $500 million of senior note maturities due in the next 12 months. At June 30th, our stockholders equity was $9.6 billion and book value per share was $26.08, up 14 percent from a year ago. During the quarter, we paid cash dividends of $56 million. We also repurchased 3.7 million shares of common stock for $159.3 million, utilizing the remainder of our outstanding authorization. Our stock repurchases for the first nine months of the year totaled 9.8 million shares for $375.5 million, resulting in a 2 percent decline in our outstanding share count at the end of the quarter compared to a year ago. Subsequent to quarter end, our board issued a new authorization to repurchase up to $1 billion of our common stock with no expiration date. Our top priorities for cash flow utilization remain to consolidate market share by investing in our home building business and strategic acquisitions, reduce home building leverage, and return capital to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Jessica?

Looking forward to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019, we expect to generate consolidated revenues in a range of $4.75 to $4.9 billion and to close approximately 15,700 to 16,000 homes. We expect our home sales growth margin in the fourth quarter to be in the range of 20.4 to 20.7 percent, and home building SG&A in the fourth quarter to be approximately 8.1 to 8.3 percent of home building revenues. We anticipate a financial services pre-tax profit margin in the fourth quarter in the range of 31 to 34 percent, and we expect our income tax rate to be approximately 24.5 percent. For the full fiscal year of 2019, we still expect to generate cash flow from home building operations of at least $1 billion, and we expect our outstanding share count to be down approximately 2 percent at the end of the year compared to the end of fiscal 2018. Based on today's market conditions, our expected growth for fiscal 2020 is currently in the mid to high single-digit percentage range for both consolidated revenues and homes closed. We expect to get further fiscal 2020 guidance on our November earnings call. David?

In closing, our results reflect the strength of our long-tendered, well-established operating platform across the country. We are striving to be the leading builder in each of our markets and to expand our industry-leading market share. We have been the largest builder by volume in the United States for 17 consecutive years. According to Builder Magazine's recent Local Leaders issue, in 2018, we were the number one builder in all of the top five U.S. housing markets, and D.L. Horton was a top five builder in 31 of the top 50 housing markets. We are focused on consolidating market share while growing our revenues and profits and generating strong annual cash flows and returns while maintaining a flexible financial position. We are well positioned to do so with our conservative balance sheet, broad geographic footprint, affordable product offerings across multiple brands, attractive finish lot and land position, and most importantly, our outstanding experienced team across the country. Thank you to the entire D.L. Horton team for your focus and hard work. We are incredibly well positioned to continue growing and improving our operations. This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now host questions. Thank you.

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to be placed in the question queue, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Once again, that is star one if you'd like to be placed in the question queue. One moment please while we poll for questions. Our first question today is coming from Carl Reichart from BTIG. Your line is now live. Good morning, everybody.

Good

morning. Morning.

I wanted to talk a little bit, just first of all, in the south central and the southwest regions where we're off a little bit, can you just talk maybe Mike or David about community count versus absorption rates there? I think southwest is short communities now and the plans to kind of regrow those regions?

Yes, what we're seeing in the southwest is that we are short communities relative to where we were, and frankly, that's a function of our success we've had in those markets. We've sold communities at faster paces than anticipated and the replacement communities are not yet online and we will be looking to replace those communities, replace those flags. South central, you know, frankly, is going up against a very tough sales comp. Last year, I think they were up over 20 percent in this quarter and while their community count is going to be about flat, absorptions did not grow as much, but we're frankly pretty satisfied with the absorptions we have there this year based on what we saw in the late fall and early winter and then seeing the margin expansion that we've been able to achieve with a little stronger selling season.

And the specifics will be in our supplemental presentation as they always are called, Carl, but just for reference, our southwest active selling communities were down 13 percent year over year right in line with the sales orders, so very, very strong absorption still out of that market. Great,

thanks, that's good. And then just as a follow-up, we've talked a lot about local market share and the advantages that can bring and we've seen some peers of yours move to lower price points and they're delivering greater order growth than you, but at margins that are well below. Can you talk a little bit about, as the rubber meets the road here in what has been a soft-dish market, can you talk about how you've been leveraging market share to protect those margins, grow those margins and keep your absorptions reasonably strong? Thanks, Case.

Cause, David, you know we've been in this affordability push for the last five years. We have incredibly well positioned communities, very deep and a lot supply and you know it's not something that is going to continue to outgrow the overall percentage of what we grow. It is driven growth for the last three or four years. It's fully rolled out and from a competitive standpoint, yes, there are people pushing down in price. They're having to give away more margin than we are because they're not as well positioned or as deeply positioned as we are. So we feel very good about what we've done, where we've been and feel very good about pace and margin balance that we're now executing.

Thanks,

David.

I appreciate

it.

Thanks. Our next question is coming from John Lovallo from Bank of America. Your line is now live.

Hey guys, thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the billion dollar share repurchase authorization. That seems like a little bit of a pivot for you guys and we think it's pretty positive but maybe just give us a little help on what drove the decision. And in terms of expected cadence of repurchase, I mean, would you expect to be kind of consistent buyers each quarter more opportunistically? How should we think about that?

Thanks, John. This is Bill. This is the next step for us. We've begun being a more consistent repurchaser of our shares over the last couple of years and generally the pace of our repurchases have been increasing over the quarters with an opportunistic fluctuations when we see a pullback in the stock. But we're repurchasing shares out of our cash flow and as our cash flow has increased, we've increased our repurchases. So we see this authorization as kind of the next step in that process. We do expect to continue to be a consistent repurchaser but we will see some fluctuations quarter to quarter depending on what we see the opportunities. The authorization has no expiration date so it doesn't necessarily imply a specific cadence or a specific time frame that would all be spent but we feel like that was the appropriate amount to authorize to put out in front of us and signal to the market that we're going to continue to be a consistent repurchaser.

Yes, that makes a lot of sense. Okay. And then in terms of July kind of being in line with normal seasonality and then that coupled with the 2020 outlook that you guys put out there, seems like the market is doing reasonably well here. I mean one of the pushback that we get from some folks is that lower interest rates kind of resulted in some pull forward orders over the past couple of quarters. That doesn't seem to be the case but I just wanted to get your view on that.

That's not my belief. I can tell you. I think that there is tremendous opportunities, tremendous demand in the affordable market, households being formed and jobs being created and there's just a limit in my supply even today. So I think the demand is there if you can position and drive a price that they can buy.

Okay, thank you guys.

Okay, my next question is coming from Alan Ratner from the Development and Associates. Your line is live.

Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Nice job with the margin improvement. I think we were actually surprised that you were able to drive that level of improvement and at the same time it looks like you had a lot of success selling specs in the quarter. I think this is the first time in quite a while where your home's inventory is actually down slightly year over year. So just curious if you could talk a little bit about, you know, did you see, was that a concerted effort to drive that that's that count lower during the quarter or was that just a function of where the demand was and I guess more broadly with your inventory position down slightly, is that by design or are there some headwinds that might be slowing the construction cycle, you know, labor, weather, etc. So just talk through all that would be great. Thank you.

Sure, thank you Alan. This is Mike. What I would touch on is that seasonally we would expect to see our homes inventory build in the earlier quarters and then start to kind of run down as we satisfy some of that spring selling demand. I think this quarter we had 38% of the homes we closed to this quarter were sold in the quarter as well and so a lot of that reflected with the enhanced margins are reduced incentives and seeing, you know, a buyer return to the market and a little bit of tailwind on some material costs, most notably lumber. We have inventory positioned where we like it right now coming into our fourth quarter. We have more inventory right now than we had this time last year and we expect to be well positioned at September 30th to start fiscal 20 as well. We're not seeing any real real-time build times. I mean we're continuing to do what we do.

Gotcha, that's helpful. And then just on the pricing environment, you know, you mentioned pulling back on incentives. Can you talk a little bit about, you know, the percentage of communities where you raise net prices either through lower incentives or outright base price increases? I think your order price actually took higher year over year which was the first time in quite a while but I know there's a lot of mix involved there. So, you know, are you seeing pricing power, what percentage of your communities or which markets are you seeing it in and to what magnitude? Thank you.

Generally most of the improvement in our gross margin was driven purely by lower incentives and not from pricing power. I would say today versus, you know, at any point really last year in fiscal 2018 we still have less pricing power today than we did a year ago but the pullbacking rates has helped so it's a little bit better sequentially in that regard but the main driver to our gross margin in Q3 and also what we're expecting in terms of improvement in Q4 is more from the pullback on incentives and that continues rollback than it is pure pricing power.

Do you have those numbers handy Jessica? Just percentage of ASP that aren't sent is today versus, you know, a year ago, a quarter ago so we can kind of see.

So we don't typically quantify incentives because to us, you know, whether it's price or if it's something flowing through cost of sales it all falls out in the margin. So to us margin is the best grade and we don't typically try to quantify incentives that way.

Understood. Thanks guys.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Eric Bosshart from Cleveland Research Company. Your line is now live.

Good morning. To follow up just to make sure we understand the path forward with incentives and pricing is, you know, talk about your comfort of what you're doing in both those areas now. If the progress that you saw in this quarter is the new normal or if you feel like there's further opportunity in the area of incentives and pricing?

I think, Eric, it's something we continue to measure and manage community by community and our operators in the field are making those pricing decisions to meet the market that they see in front of them. So, you know, I would expect that we would, as Jessica mentioned in the gross margin guidance, continue to see a little bit improved margin into our fourth quarter based on the selling environment we're in today and the strength of the buyer that's coming to our doors. We feel really good about that. I think we're going to see some further expansion in margin and as well as maintaining the pace that we're at.

And then secondly, the guidance looks like now your full year deliveries will be at the high end of the range you established earlier. What's different within that? Is that a better market or better market share? How would you sort of segment between those two factors that are contributing to you getting to the high end of the range?

I think it's just a bit better visibility. As we've gotten through the spring and we've been able to see our pace continue at a solid pace, we have a greater confidence level in our ability to sell and sell through the homes that we have and deliver them during this fiscal year. Just the sequential improvement visibility, I think, was the primary factor. It's a very solid market as evidenced by our ability to pull back incentives throughout the quarter and I think we're still seeing a very solid market out here as we go into our Q4.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Truman Patterson from Wells Fargo.

Hi, good morning everybody. First, I wanted to look at your option lot count as a percent of total lot to take down a little bit sequentially. I figured you guys would have continued increasing this given, you know, four star, et cetera. Could you guys just discuss a little bit about what drove this and that land environment in general? Are you seeing the availability of option land or developers improving?

In terms of the change in the option percentage stream, I think that number is very dynamic. It moves, you know, every time we sign a contract or take down lots or cancel a contract. And so there's a lot of volatility in that, you know, directionally that the general trend we've had over the past few quarters and past few years, frankly, as we've been working on this, has been to push it higher and we're continuing to work at that. You know, we're working with developers, both four star and other third party developers constantly, looking for ways to expand that controlled lot position and partner with them to deliver communities and lots to us. You know, availability, it's still a tough job to find the right land and to get it entitled in today's market and bring it into production. But it's something our team across the country works very hard at every day.

Okay, thanks for that. And then on, you know, you guys gave us a little bit on 2020 guidance, I believe mid to high single digit revenue growth. Could you just maybe break that out how you're thinking about market conditions and with that, you know, your all's community count growth possibly versus absorption improvement?

Sure, Truman, that's our preliminary fiscal 2020 guidance. And so today, it's only July, we're going to stick with just consolidated revenue growth and homes closed in the mid to high single digit percentage range. And we'll give further, you know, breakdown in color in November when we've completed our fiscal year end.

Obviously, the only perspective we can give on that is based on today's market conditions. So that's, you know, assuming the conditions remain relatively consistent with that.

Directionally, would you assume that your core community count continues to grow?

We've never given specific guidance on community count. And we're just going to stick with what we currently expect for fiscal 20. And we may have a little bit of non-specific guidance, but color and community count in November. But today, that's what we feel comfortable with for preliminary guidance.

Okay, thank you. Nice quarter. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Michael Reholt from JP Morgan. Your line is now live.

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. And congrats on the results. The first question I had was on sales pace. And I guess it's a little bit of a pace versus price question. But, you know, more focused around sales pace. You know, you've had some competitors that, you know, sales pace anywhere from mid single digits to, you know, healthy, very healthy double digit rates. You guys are a little bit more, you know, plus or minus flattest this year. But in contrast, you know, you've had, you know, strong double digit sales pace growth for the prior, you know, three, four years. So my question is, you know, are you just at a point in the market, you know, your own shift towards first time, which kind of led the industry, you know, kind of in a more of a steady state, and, you know, it's kind of taking the market as it is? Because it seems like, you know, most other builders talk about, you know, this improved strength or improving strength at entry level, that's driving that higher sales pace, whereas you might already, you know, have been there and benefited, you know, trying to just reconcile that because obviously also, you know, it seems like you're a little bit more comfortable today, not necessarily adhering, you know, at any price adhering to the double digit pop line growth, and focusing a little bit more on a balanced approach. So just trying to get a sense of, you know, it's a long-winded question, I apologize, but, you know, that more flattest sales pace, you know, kind of how that reconciles with some of the other builders we're seeing versus your own positioning, you know, over the last few years.

Michael, thank you very much. This is Mike. I think the way to start with the answer to the question is, we've tried to move to the entry level to the affordable product positioning with Express five years ago. And we have been out rolling that out and seeing very good absorption and demand for that product very well received over the past five years. And we did fuel a lot of years of double digit top line growth in units. We, as David mentioned before in the call, secured a lot of very good long land positions and opportunities in that. And we are now at a place in our rollout that is fairly mature. We're getting good absorptions per community. And from a balanced perspective, we're looking at the pace and price and focusing on what's driving the best returns for our inventory investment. And that's what we're seeing today is that we've got, you know, a pace that we're very, very satisfied with in our communities, looking at each one of them individually, and then looking to see what can we do to adjust incentives, adjust product offering to enhance margin that then increases overall return in those communities as we're working through them. So by and large, we have done the rollout to the entry level. And now we're looking to kind of, if you would, trim the sales on the business plan a little bit to maximize the returns we're getting out of those communities and continuing to look for new communities to replace those. And so others, you know, we've been saying for a long time, as we've opened up communities, we see great demand, and we were not able to satisfy all that demand. So some others have come in and are helping to meet a bit of that demand, but we still feel really good about our positioning and the performance we're getting out of those.

Great. Now that's helpful, and it makes sense, obviously. So thanks for that. I guess secondly, you know, on the lot positioning, you know, notice that the option lot percentage ticked down a point sequentially in the third quarter after, again, several years of very impressive growth and gains in that number. How should we think about, you know, the option lot percentage course over the next couple of years? Obviously, you know, the low 60s kind of exceeded your goal or hit your goal faster than expected. Should we kind of expect this type of range to be more of the new normal or, you know, is there kind of another leg up in the option lot percentage over the next couple of years? I think you asked

the question the right way in the term of years to look at this. It is a fairly volatile measurement, and we have been very fortunate the past several quarters it has done nothing but increase, but it will bounce a little bit from time to time, but directionally over the next few years. We would still expect that control block position to climb above its current level. I wouldn't say that there's going to be a rapid accelerated leg with that or anything we can point to as a catalyst to take it immediately up three to five, seven, ten percent, but continually as we're continuing to adjust our business to focus on returns, we're looking to continue to control more land and partner with more third parties in delivering lots to the builder.

Great. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Matthew Boulet from Barclays. Your line is now live. Morning.

Thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to ask back on the inventory side, just looking at the finished burst under construction spec, it looked like the finished spec was a little higher as a mix than it typically is. Can you just elaborate a little on why that is? Obviously, you gave us that near-term margin guide, but just any implications around margins or incentives from where that finished spec position is? Thank you.

No, we certainly are in a strong position to sell and to deliver on what the water guidance is for Q4, fiscal 19, and fiscal 20, and the finished spec position gives us an ability to sell and close homes in the same quarter. So we're pleased with that positioning, but really no implications on our margin guide. We expect our margin to still tick up into Q4 and feel good about our positioning in the market to continue to maintain margins at that level.

We have a very strong focus on completed and unsold specs over a period of time, and that number for homes greater than six months that have been completed and unsold has stayed in a really tight four to six hundred homes range, which on our overall base of inventory of almost 30,000 homes is very manageable. And as Bill said, we feel like we're in a very strong position for Q4.

Okay, perfect. And then just secondly, back on the closings guide, seven to nine percent in the fourth quarter, but just looking at the backlog units and, you know, as we just talked about that inventory units are down year over year. So clearly the backlog conversion is stepping up nicely. So is it really just what you're seeing in the sales environment in July? Is labor, you know, perhaps loosening? Just what are you guys seeing that's allowing for that type of improvement in the backlog conversion? Thank you.

I think one of the things to discuss on is that we have a fair bit of completed homes, both unsold as well as sold that'll be delivering in the fourth quarter. You know, in the aggregate, our homes and inventory are up year over year. They're down sequentially, which is seasonally what we would expect to do in our business plan. So we have the homes out there. We're going to close them in the fourth quarter.

All right, got it. Thank you very much.

Thank

you.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Ken Zener from KeyBank Capital Markets. Your line is now live.

Good morning, everybody.

Good morning,

Kevin. So if we could just do a little math here. Basically, you're running a lot more pre-build homes in one queue. So you closed at higher percent in three queues. How I look at your 38% number that you disclosed for intra-quarter orders closing. What I'm interested in is your closing for four queue at the low end, 15,700, up to 16,000. That's interesting in that you have a pretty high percent of your under construction, which is how we do everything. Can you explain why that low end of guidance, which is 54% of units under construction, would be up from 49% last year? I know you have spec pre-built homes, which is normal, and you had a last year. So are you getting higher conversion cycles or what is it?

Well, to be specific about the completed specs that we've referenced a couple of times, we have almost 6,000, actually 5,600 completed specs at the end of this year. Last year, we only had about 3,600. So we're in a very strong position to deliver on that guidance. Right behind those completed specs, we also have homes that are close to completion that we can also sell and close in the same quarter.

Okay. Now, using that same logic where you guys, well, you guys refer to seasonal order pace, so your pace sequentially. In prior years, you had given guidance where your implication was because of the entry level or other type of products, you saw greater absorption. So my question to you is this, is there any reason that you gave guidance for FY20 that you'd see anything other than normal seasonality?

Not that we see today. I mean, we don't have a crystal ball to what the spring selling season looks like, but where we sit today, we anticipate normal seasonality.

And then last question, could you, given the mix in the third quarter of 38%, I think there's normally 35% interim quarter closings, what was the spread, would you say, between those pre-built homes being ordered and closed versus your backlog?

The stuff we sell and close in the same quarter is almost 100% homes that were already started going into the quarter.

And the margin differential between those and backlog?

We generally just look at our spec margin versus our build job margin, and generally our specs run slightly lower gross margin than our build job, but they turn faster. So from a return perspective, they're always accretive.

And then roughly 80% of the homes that close are spec. So really, our overall margin really does reflect largely our spec margin.

I would say that the houses we sold and closed in the quarter, we probably achieved a better margin on those than we would have if we sold them in the first quarter or the second quarter. Right.

Yeah, it is interesting dynamic.

And I think that is part of the margin lift we saw and expected. Thank

you, everybody.

Thank

you again.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Jack Messinko from SIG. Ruvine is now live.

Good morning. I wanted to just sort of back up on the times a little bit. I think it's been pretty well telegraphed in the market that a large competitor has been using incentives to meet a volume goal. And I think some other larger peers of yours have sort of called it out. Margin B this quarter, is it, I guess I'm curious, was it the market and some of those pressures getting better? And David earlier, you talked about positioning of your assets, certainly the market segmentation and entry level. Your margin improvement, is it, how much of it is those three items? Is it the market just getting better or is it, is it, is it, is it, is it, is it

I would say the affordability, we gained affordability in the quarter because interest rates dropped, lumber prices were reduced a little bit, which both those things helped, I think, margin. But I can tell you, we get up every day thinking about positioning and how we're trying to put the right house, right lot, right community and then have it priced to turn. And so, and I know it's sacrilegious to say this, but we really don't look at the other pillars much, at least I don't. So it's, we're just trying to get better in our community offerings and stay competitive every day. So I would say it's more horton than the market, but I'm probably a slightly biased.

Okay. And then on the apartment business, I know it started out, it's been kind of a smaller initiative, but and I think you've built, I think so far a lot of these maybe near master plans or areas we were already building. Has that been the strategy changed? I mean, are you still merchant-billed? Did we see a pivot to some, some of these for cash flow? Obviously, there's a couple the public's doing the same thing. And then just a reminder on project level financing, is that all on Horton's balance sheet? Are you partnering? And how do we think about that a year from now?

You know, I'd say when we started this, we thought it was going to work hand in hand with our home building operation. Where we started it was in communities where we had apartment zoned land we owned that typically we would have sold. It felt like we could drive higher value for our shareholders by building it out and so on. Our long-term strategy is to sustain and scale that program. And whether we buy it, whether we hold them, sell them, is going to come on market and cap rates and pipeline of deals we got coming right now. As we're learning the business, we're selling and they actually, even Bill Wheat was a little skeptical going into it, but they're driving pretty good returns. And as we look at, our pipeline of stuff that's under construction right now, it looks like a business that's going to be able to scale.

And Jack, in terms of financing, it's all on our balance sheet today, but we are assessing what that looks like in the future and we'd expect to utilize some level of third-party capital at some point. Ultimately,

it comes back to people. And I can tell you what our community guys have done in establishing platforms and getting the right people in the right slots has been very impressive. So we lack what we see so far.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is coming from Stephen Kim from the Bacore ISI. Your line is now live.

Thank you. Thanks, Shin. Good quarter. I wanted to talk a little bit about your 2020 guide. In particular, this year you decided not to include a margin guide in 2020. And just wanted to get into that a little bit. Obviously, there's a lot we can't know about what the next year is going to bring terms of the economy and demand from rates. But there are two things, two factors that I think we can maybe think about qualitatively. One is the margin on spec and the second is the lumber benefit, which is your senior term. On the specs, David, I believe you mentioned that you thought that margins on specs are usually a little lower than the bill to order, but not right now, and in part because of the drop in rates. I'm imagining so folks wanted to close quickly and lock in those rates. That benefit to your margin on your specs relative to BTO, I would assume we shouldn't assume that's going to continue unless rates drop further, which is not something that I would assume you would bake into your outlook. And then secondly, in terms of lumber benefit, I'm thinking, you know, we don't know how much that was. I'd be curious if you could give it to us, but I assume that benefit shouldn't be assumed to continue in 2020 either. So these are two things that maybe, you know, would win the margin next year. Are there material offsets to these things that you could point to that might give us some hope that margins could grow next year?

Hey Steve, it's Jessica. As we've kind of outlined, we gave preliminary guidance with what we felt comfortable with today that we can commit to for fiscal 2020, and it's all subject to today's market conditions. We're going to focus, as we always have, on maximizing returns, and gross margin is going to be a product of both the overall market and what it takes from a price and pace perspective, community by community, to maximize returns. And so we're not going to try in July to give any sort of gross margin color for fiscal 20, other than continuing to make sure we're balancing pace and price to maximize returns.

And just, you know, I may have misspoke, but just to clarify what I thought I said, the houses we sold and closed in Q3 were at a higher margin than if we would have sold and closed the houses we sold and closed in Q1, in fact, because incentives have abated and we are seeing less of a need to incentivize a finished house to get it to get it to under contract and closed.

But what I said earlier about spent margins generally being lower than billed job margins is still true. That was true this quarter, and that would be any base case scenario we have.

Got it. Okay, that is helpful. Appreciate that. And I guess, could you give some color with respect to the lumber benefit? You didn't really talk specifically about that. Can you could dimensionalize that for us in some manner?

We probably would quantify that as about, our sequential margin improvement, you know, probably about 20 to 30 bits of tailwind came from lower lumber costs in the homes we closed this quarter versus what we closed in the second quarter.

Okay, that's really helpful. And then last one for me is I think you mentioned somewhere along your remarks that the cycle time had not changed. So your cycle time hasn't improved and it hasn't deteriorated, I assume, is what that means. And then therefore, I guess I'm thinking into next year or just as we go forward, if we're going to improve the returns without the margin, is it possible for you to do that effectively without increasing or shortening your build time on average?

We've not seen our build times lengthen this year and they have not contracted as much as we would have liked either. But that does remain an area of focus to us is how do we be better stewards of the capital and turn that capital more efficiently and getting build times to be as efficient as possible is certainly a huge part of that. And that's something we do get up every day and think about how to do that. I mean, David talked about we try to enhance margin every day. We also try to enhance the build time. We talk about, you know, our cash flow cycles. That's a big part of our cash flow cycle. You're exactly right. That is an

area we need to focus on.

Great. Thank you very much, Guy.

Thanks. My next question is coming from Mike Doll from RBC Capital Market. Your line is now live.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. My first question was still around kind of the pace versus margin or return discussion and following up on, Jessica, what I think you just said and what Mike and David also touched on earlier. I know it's not all one size fits all, but at a high level, what I'm trying to figure out is you go into the year with a generally speaking kind of a unit goal. You put inventory on the ground that positions you to meet that. And so the question is, you know, as you go through the year and demand kind of fluctuates, is it the right way to think about what to expect from your results that the swing line is actually on gross margins versus upside or downside on units? Just because I think there's still a question of, you know, whether there's some bigger picture strategic shift in the way you're thinking about volume versus margin or returns at this point or if this is really just a function of market dynamics.

You know, at least I talk about one of my travel and divisions, margin is the grade. You know, if you do a great job of positioning the product for the price point and demand that exists, then you're going to run a very high margin in excess of 20%. If you do a very poor job of positioning price point product, then you're probably going to run a lower margin because you know, we are going to hit a certain pace. We are going to maintain production in the community and then adjust off that process. So, you know, we do put a plan out there. We do have expectations and when we get everything right, the margins run very, very high. When the market's working with us, the margins improve. So, but we are going to run at a pace.

Okay, that's a

helpful thing.

In the short term, that margin grade is what the difference is between how well we do and how well we want to do. But in a little bit longer term, we can moderate, adjust the pace based on market conditions as we're seeing to maximize the return. And more broadly, as we've over the past five years, ten years coming out of the downturn, attained a lot of market share and scale, we've been able to then focus on how best to maximize the company's return on equity and what are some of the levers we can pull there and consistently driving cash flow, creating opportunities for us to de-risk the balance sheet, invest in new opportunities for us to grow the business or to return more capital to shareholders that we think is the most creative way to drive value for our shareholders.

Okay, thanks for that. And then my second question is just all up to Steve's question around lumber. You quantified that as 20 to 30 basis points, sequential benefit in 3Q. I was wondering what the sequential benefit is in your 4Q guide versus 3Q specifically related to lumber. And then can you give us at a higher level your direct cost trends on a, I know your home size is shrinking, so maybe on a per square foot basis would be helpful.

I'll comment on Q4 first. It's a bit of tailwind on lumber is a component of our guide of a sequential improvement of 10 to 40 basis points in gross margin in Q4. Don't have a specific component of that because you know mix will impact that in actuality, but it is a component of our guide for a sequential increase.

Yeah and outside of incentives and lumber really our revenues per square foot and our cost per square foot were relatively flat sequentially other than the two pieces that we called out which drove the improvement in our gross margin.

Okay great, thank you.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Jade Romani from KBW. Your line is now live.

Good morning, this is Ryan on for Jade. Thanks for taking the questions. Just for sticking bigger picture, do you think that the fundamental structure of the home industry is really too fragmented and therefore presents an opportunity for someone like D.R. Horton to consolidate over the intermediate term?

Well we've been consolidating and I can tell you our plan is to continue to consolidate. If you look at the industry when we went public it was public builders were about three percent of the overall market and every year since then they've publics have gained more market share and we have gained more market share like let's see how the publics and I for one don't see that changing.

And I guess you know dovetailing off of that topic do you think that there are material scale economies that would further benefit the company in the majority of your markets or you know is that process somewhat over is that thought process somewhat overblown?

That's that's the big focus of while we're certainly the largest volume builder in the country we're not number one in every market so we're focused on what can we do in each market to aggregate market share and become the largest builder. We're top five in 31 of the top 50 markets so we see plenty of opportunity to still consolidate market by market and really that happens at the community level every day.

Great thanks for the commentary.

Thank you our next question today is coming from Jay McCandless from Wedbush. Your line is now live.

Okay thanks for fitting me in. The first question I had did you talk about how orders trended on a monthly basis through the quarter and then if you could quantify what you see so far in July?

You know Jay I think we we entered the call David mentioned that we've seen in our June quarter and and our July sales you know through we can't talk about today yet but through most of the months we've just seen normal seasonality and in line with our expectations so putting this right where we want to be to deliver the fourth quarter we've talked about.

And then I think I'll comment on it a couple times but that the expansion of the affordable product has basically been completed. I was wondering if that applies to freedom as well and maybe what you're seeing from active adult demand and also move up demand since most everyone's been focused on affordable with Ludwig Airhouse some of these other sectors

are performing. You know the the freedom brand is still early in the rollout. We have gotten much better at positioning that product but we are not anywhere near where we want to be at this point. I will say that every community we've rolled out seems to be a little better positioned a little better reception from the the customer and it's a brand that's going to be a part of this company for a long time and I think we'll at some point approach 10 plus of our deliveries. The luxury brand we again we continue to get better at it nowhere near where we want to be. It gives us a serious focus right now the affordable product lines have driven returns and growth and we pay our gas based upon returns and profits so their focus has been on delivering what the buyer wants. But there will be a point time where that will drive a better return than entry level at least it has been in past cycles so very happy with everything we're doing. We just got to get better.

Thank you our final question today is coming from Buck Horn from Raymond James. Your line is now live.

Hey thank you good morning. Question I think you touched on the the lumber benefits you're getting. I was wondering if you'd quantify for us a little bit either on cost per square foot or otherwise just how labor costs have been trending throughout the quarter and also what you're seeing in terms of land inflation that's out there and my secondary question to that would just be how are you pricing lots that are coming from four star how do you negotiate those prices?

So first part of the question on terms of labor costs you know we're not seeing a lot of other changes really in our stick and broke costs so you know labor costs right now quarter to quarter holding in flat we're pleased with the relationships and the teams we have out there negotiating those. Land and development costs you know are always a challenge that we work back against a lot of our deep positions and markets fail at health with that and we've not seen a lot of lot cost inflation coming through on this quarter's closings so we're happy with the benefit that's produced and then the third part of the question I think is four stars lot pricing you know we look at for an opportunity that we bring to four star that we have tied up we negotiate with four star and then they have return hurdles and metrics that they have to achieve and our land teams know what those are and they'll bring those those projects to them and they'll negotiate the take down structures and the pricing to achieve those return hurdles and if it works for parties we go forward with the deal at four star does it if it doesn't work we can't find a way to make it work then then it's not a deal four star does for an opportunity that four star sources you know we have the we have the opportunity to get up to half the lots tied up but that's really you know I write a first offer first refusal on those parcels and you know they have their return hurdles they're out there competitively bidding at the marketplace with other builders and and they'll work with us where it makes sense and they'll work with other builders where it makes sense as well so they sell both to Fortin and they sell to third-party builders as well

it's great thanks for one sorry thank her one last one in here to say line of this switch gears give them the mortgage market a little bit there was some concern already some questions out of the industry just with the the fhfa discussing you know letting the uh I guess the uh the path around gsc loans and debt to income ratios letting that that path expire in early 2021 I know we're a long way up from there but just wondering if you could give us a feel or if you have any metrics around how many of your buyers could be in you know affected by a change in those those underwriting parameters how many of your buyers have pti ratios over 43% anything around that I

think you kind of hit the nail on the head with how we would start which is 2021 is a long ways out um so I think a lot can happen between then and and does it you know fully expire and go away or does some some middle ground be reached between now and then we'll see um it's a long ways out in terms of our buyers and their debt to income for the buyers that are utilizing our mortgage company on average for our entire mortgage company this quarter the dci percentage was about 42% um so we do have a a decent amount of our buyers that would be at that 43% or above um but that doesn't mean just because if the patch were to go away for conventional there's not a product for them they'd still be eligible potentially for an fha loan and then the first question we also always ask is do you have other sources of income that we can verify that we haven't yet to go into that equation so typically any sort of change that gets implemented like it's not 100% fallout or mortgage company just mortgage company does a phenomenal job of working with buyers in our pipeline to find them a different product and if this patch were to expire which I don't know that that's anybody's base case scenario right now um I feel confident that that we figure our way through it with without a lot of fallout

thank you so much really helpful thank you thank

you we reach out of our question and as recession I had to turn the floor back to management pretty further closing comment

thank you Kevin we appreciate everybody's time want to call today and look forward to speaking with you again in November and to the day or horn team outstanding quarter thank you uh we are uh forever grateful up here for what you guys do there and uh I guess we'll talk to you sooner than November thanks

everyone

thank you that does include today's teleconference you may just connect your line at this time and have a wonderful day we thank you for your participation today