DHT Holdings, Inc.

Thank you. Good morning and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome, and thank you for joining DHD Holdings' second quarter 2020 earnings call. I'm joined by DHD's co-CEOs, Svein Mosnes Harger and Trygve Munsta, and Vilhelm Klinder, head of investor relations. As usual, we will go through financials and some highlights before we open up for your questions. The link to the slide deck can be found on our website, dhtankers.com. Before we get started with today's call, I would like to make the following remarks. A replay of this conference call will be available at our website dhtankers.com until August 18th. In addition, our earnings press release will be available on our website and on the SSC Edgar system as an exhibit to our Form 6-K. As a reminder, on this conference call, we will discuss matters that are forward-looking in nature. These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations about future events, including DHD's prospects, dividends, share repurchases, and debt repayment, also for the tanker markets in general, daily charter high rates and vessel utilization, forecasts of world economic activity, oil prices and oil trading patterns, anticipated levels of new building and scrapping, and projected dry dock schedules. Actual results may differ materially from the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements. We urge you to read our periodic reports available on our website and on the SSE-Edgar system, including the risk factors in these reports, for more information regarding risks that we face. Looking at the P&L highlights, EBITDA for the quarter came in at $178 million and a net income of $135.8 million, or $0.92 per share. Adjusted for a non-cash change in fair value related to interest rate derivatives of $0.4 million, net income was $136.3 million, or $0.93 per share for the quarter. This sets another new record in the company's 15-year history. OPEX for the quarter was 19.7 million, or 8,000 per day average for the fleet, and G&A for the quarter was 5 million. Moving over to the balance sheet. The quarter ended with 138 million of cash. During the quarter, we prepaid $59 million under the ABN AMRO and NODIA credit facilities. The voluntary prepayments under the two facilities were made for all regular installments scheduled for 2021. Current availability under all our revolving credit facilities is $135 million. putting total liquidity at 273 million at quarter end. Financial leverage is 39.4% based on book values and 38.6% based on market values for the ship. Net debt is 582 million, which equals an average net debt of 21.5 million per vessel. Looking at the cash bridge, the quarter started with $76 million of cash and we generated $178 million in EBITDA. Ordinary debt repayment and cash interest amounted to $26 million. $52 million was paid in dividends. $10 million was used in scrubber and maintenance capex. $13.5 million was provided by scrubber financing. $59 million was used for debt prepayment. Changes in working capital amounted to $16 million, and the quarter ended with $138 million of cash. With that, I will turn the call over to Trygve.

Thank you, Laila. Let me then walk you through the operational highlights for the quarter. As you've seen from the press release, our spot VLCCs earned $92,100 per day in the second quarter. The time charter chips earned an average of $62,700 per day. Fleet-wide, the average then becomes $83,300 per day. As of today, we have covered 61% of the available spot days at an average rate of $51,400 per day. More importantly, if you are an investor on a fleet-wide basis, i.e., with the time-sharded ships included, three-quarters of the tanker days are covered at an average rate of $51,200 per day. And that is with no profit sharing on the four ships with such arrangements. Our aggressive pursuit of time-sharded opportunities earlier in the year was clearly the right strategy. With it, we have been able to extend the good times well into next year. On the cost side, the company continues to deliver stable and competitive numbers. Vessel operating expenses came in at $8,000 per day per ship for the quarter. Cash G&A amounted to $3.1 million for the quarter. Let us then turn to capital allocation. For the 42nd consecutive time, we will pay a quarterly dividend. 48 cents per share will be paid on September 2nd to shareholders on record of August 26th. The amount equals 60% of net income divided by the fully diluted share count. In the quarter, we continue to strengthen our balance sheet by prepaying almost $60 million of bank debt. Specifically, we prepaid the 2021 regular installments on our two large loan facilities. In addition to the overall deleveraging effect, this move has a significant positive impact on next year's cash break-even levels, something Svein will discuss in more detail in a minute. As you have noted, On the 17th of July, we exercised our call option on the $125 million convertible bond due August next year. The conversion price is $5.347 per share. Thursday next week is the last chance for bondholders to convert their notes into common shares. If they do not, they will be redeemed in cash at par on Friday the 21st. A potential cash redemption will be covered by cash at hand and a partial draw on our revolving credit facilities. And on a general note, we would like to add that we look forward to having this instrument retired from the capital structure. On previous occasions, we've been able to buy back convertible bonds in the open market at the discount. However, in recent quarters, this has been impossible to repeat as the bond has faded meaningfully above par At times, seemingly, as if the call option was not priced in. So in this context, we elected to call the bond at par. With that, I'll turn it over to Simon.

Thank you, Dr. Greger. The COVID-19 virus continues to present significant challenges with respect to changing crews at regular intervals. Consequently, many TFRs are serving longer periods on board than originally planned. There are too few ports and countries that facilitate crew changes and the variety of nationalities and immigration practices does not make this task any easier. Additionally, the time required for crew changes are longer than normal and result in some off-hire. At DHT, we have, however, had increasing success with crew changes. and have to date had two-thirds of our fleet in ports to change some or all the crew. This is a significant effort and achievement from both our seafarers and our shore-based staff. As previously discussed, we have taken advantage of the strong freight markets to build a meaningful book of fixed income for our fleet. Importantly, this level of fixed income covers a significant portion of the company's cash cost and lowers the required rates in order for the spot chips to cover the remaining cash costs for the company. Specifically, we estimate that our 17 spot chips need to earn $2,800 per day for the company to be cash neutral for the remainder of the year. This does not take into consideration third quarter bookings to date. Hence, we are well ahead of this number. Similarly, we estimate that the spot ships need to earn $11,400 per day to cover our cash costs in 2021. Cash break even might mean different things to different people. At DSG, it includes all true cash costs, i.e. OPEX, G&A, scheduled debt repayments, interest and maintenance capex. Both these numbers are very robust and come as a result of our TC strategy and debt prepayments. We believe that they make DHT stand apart with staying power and ability to generate cash even in weaker markets. Our industry is highly cyclical. Our industry is also very capital intensive. Further, it is essentially a spot business offering limited opportunities to build truly long-term fixed income at rewarding returns. In recognition of this, DHT's strategy is counter-cyclical. This means that we do different things depending on where we are in the business cycles. As you can see on this graph, Our actions have been very focused during troughs and peaks. In late 2013, early 2014, we expanded aggressively by acquiring 16 VCCs. In the following period, when earnings and asset values appreciated, we stopped investing and shifted our focus by paying handsome dividends, buying back bonds at a discount, securing time-chartered contracts, as well as prepaying debts. In the trough of 2017, we again expanded by acquiring 13 VLCCs at attractive prices. During the recent period of strong earnings, we have continued to execute on our well-defined strategy and extend our solid track record. This included the following three key components. One, rewarding shareholders with generous formula-based quarterly cash dividends. securing fixed income contracts for several of our ships at attractive rates, and three, allocating a significant portion of our cash flows to prepay debt and further strengthen our balance sheets. These achievements are very important in anticipation and preparation for the next step in our strategy as we expect the next leg in the market to offer attractive investment opportunities. Our balance sheet will have capacity to make meaningful investments without relying on raising additional equity. This will ensure additional investments will be accretive to earnings. Further, we enjoy excellent support from our lending banks and are confident in credit being available when required. In sum, we are now coming out of a period with exceptionally healthy freight levels and have positioned the company to be able to take advantage of attractive growth opportunities when they arise. And with that, we open up the Q&A. Operator?

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Chris Chung from Weber Research. Please ask your question.

Hey, good afternoon, guys. How are you? Good, thanks. Good, good, good. Great. Congrats on the great quarter. I guess I wanted to just kind of dial in on the two-year time charter that you guys are able to sign for Stallion at, I think, $41,000, $42,000 a day. Is there a profit share component to this, and And two, are there plans to do more of these? I know that you guys fixed six in April for about $61,000 a day, probably capturing the floating storage trade. But it kind of just sends, I guess, a bearish signal that current spot rates, which are around, let's call it $18,000 a day, that these rates might persist. And I guess put another way, is there a price level or duration that would encourage you guys to do more time charters versus spot? And is there like a percentage of fleet that you guys are aiming for to have, like, times charter versus spot that you guys would think offers an optimal risk-reward return?

To the first part, there is no profit-sharing element on the times charter on stallion, as you referred to. To the second part, if there is a magic number on percentage covered on times charter and so forth, It is not, and that is really unchanged from over the years. We will pursue time charters when we think that the numbers make sense. So if we can lock in rates that give a good return on the investments in the vessels that we have, then we'll do it. But it is not like we are desperate to lock in cash flow no matter where the rates are. So we've done it in this up cycle, done as many charges as we could find. We did it in prior high markets, but you will note that in lower markets we have not been nearly as eager to develop new time shorter business. So it's more a reflection of what rate levels we see doable and not so much about the percentage of the total fleet.

Okay, fair, great, thanks. And I guess Um, there's like recent news coming on, um, surrounding congestion in China. I think Kepler peg, like around 80 some odd tankers currently being held up. And I guess, would you guys be able to have some sort of visibility into how much of this is the result of, you know, planned floating storage where, um, charters are purposely holding or slow steaming, you know, right outside the ports as a form of floating storage, or is there like some sort of structural bottleneck or COVID related congestion in China? And are you guys exposed to this in any way? And if you are, are the demerits charges, are they greater than the current headline spot rates?

Well, we think that number you mentioned certainly jives well with the reports that we are reading and also what our internal sort of intel is picking up. We believe this is really a reflection of inventories being quite full in China or issues with shore tanks. So it takes time for the refiners that have now also reduced some of the throughputs to consume these inventories. And that's holding up ships. We don't really believe this is so much of a contango play. That was much talked about in the spring. Also to your other part of the question, these ships, they do earn demerit rates, and the demerit rates will very much be a reflection of when these charters were fixed. We have had some ships on demerit in China, and we still have, and this is where we get paid every day. The rates certainly vary, but as the market has come off recently, most of these demerit rates are meaningfully higher than the current spot market.

Okay, great. Yeah, that's great. It's kind of good to kind of be able to capture something steady to come in while spot rates have kind of taken a little bit of a dip. And I guess just my final question, I know that you said most of the crew discharging changes are going to take up a lot of the off-hire days. And in your presentation or report, I think you had 77 off-hire days in Q3. I just wanted to get a sense of how much of that is the crew changes and if You guys are still going ahead with the five vessels that are just starting to go scrubber retrofits, and if that will still happen this year?

The crew changes are included in the scheduled off-fire days that you will see on the list. So it's a sort of relative minor number in the total scheme of things. But in general, it does take longer than what has been the norm in the past. Typically you will do this whilst you do other operations, either discharging or loading or bunkering in ports. But now it might involve some validation and some more time to make the logistics work.

Okay, yeah, that makes sense. And the scrubber retrofits?

Yes, so we postponed a number of these ships earlier as the earnings were very strong and So some of these are yet to take place, and we are trying now to focus on these to coincide with natural dry docking dates or when we will take the ships off in any case. So that is something that will develop later this year and also into next year.

Yeah, that makes sense. That's super efficient. All right, great. Thanks, guys. Thanks for your time. Have a great rest of your day.

Your next question comes from the line of Randy Givens from Jefferies. Please ask your question.

Howdy, gentlemen. How's it going? Good, thanks. Great. So I guess first question, just trying to get some more color around your decision to convert the 4.5% notes at this time, right, given that the shares are trading well below NAV and Has there been a lot that have already been converted? And then I guess last part of this question, to avoid the dilution, will you look to possibly repurchase some of the amount of shares that get exercised?

As we said in our remarks, we've really been trying to see if we could buy some of these bonds in the open market, but we found the pricing to be unattractive. And then back in mid-July, our share price was basically right at the conversion price. So we thought and we were hopeful that we were going to be able to call it and redeem it in cash. But of course, it's a 30-day notice period. So the stock is trading freely in between. So it is still too early to say whether it's going to convert or not or redeemed in cash. But I think in terms of consequential action on the outcome that's speculative at this point so we'd prefer to see how it all shakes out at the end of next week before we decide a potential next move okay and then Randy let me just add also that it is of course a dilution issue if it is converted but you see the pretty strong dividends for this quarter and You've seen our booking guidance for the current quarter. So by just waiting, we were afraid that dilution was just going to increase. So we elected to go ahead now when the share price was at the conversion price.

Got it. All right, that's fair. And then speaking of those quarter-to-day rates, very strong numbers, especially ahead of the benchmark rates we've been seeing the last few weeks. But a little below your peers, is this because your time charters, I guess, gave away some of that spot exposure upside in May and June? And then what kind of premium did your scrubber-fitted BLCCs earn last quarter and maybe so far this quarter? And then what are kind of the current rate levels that you're booking at BLCC, maybe your most recent or this week?

We don't have a specific dollar per day number for you, but what you see in the different broker reports on the delta between compliant fuel and old-fashioned heavy sulfur or sulfur fuel is a good indication, and just multiply that delta with daily consumption, and that's really your answer. So, of course, this spread is much tighter now than what most people anticipated at the beginning of the year. But year to date, we have essentially recovered half of the capex on the retrofits that we have done. And it is not obvious to us that the margins are going to stay where they are. So they might as well expand and go back out again. But that's speculative to have a strong opinion on it.

And then most recent booking or rates this week for VFCC?

Well, we have advised what we have booked quarter to date. The current spot market is 20,000 plus per day, maybe, you know, low 20s. So, yeah, that's the market as it is today.

Got it. All right. And then just a quick modeling question, the $9 million quarterly earmark, should we use that for the rest of this year and into throughout 2021? Yeah.

No, for the rest of this year, it's the sort of full regular installment schedule. So what we have prepaid is the year 2021 for those two big facilities, but we're not prepaid any regular installments for this year. And the reason for that is that our time shorter coverage is so much stronger this year than what it is for next year. So with a cash break even at $2,800 a day for the spot ships this year, it was better use of the cash to prepay next year's installment. Does that make sense?

Okay, so it's timing different. Yep, that's fine. Thanks so much, and congrats again. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Nolan from Stifel. Please ask your question.

Thanks. This is Ben Nolan. So... Close, though. But I have a couple. The first is I know that you guys take a very formulaic and systematic approach to how you think about buying and selling assets, counter-cyclically, as you've talked about. And it does sound like you're a little bit more open to the idea of expansion now than you probably have been in the previous quarter. Can you maybe just remind me where those thresholds are in terms of what you view as historically good prices versus historically prices where you'd rather stay on the sidelines?

We haven't been in an investment mode now for more than three years. And we are in no rush to make new investments. But I think all these preparations that we made for the company is to be ready when those things arrive. So we still think it's a bit early. We're not going to sort of flag a particular price for a ship. But if you look back at the sort of growth in 2013 and 2017, you would note that the five-year-old ships were sort of below 60 million. And, you know, new buildings were below 90. So I know in 2013, and then it was below 80 in 2017. So that's sort of some indication, but time will tell, you know, where these asset prices will go. We think one key parameter to look at there is that the yards in general have got very, very little business, and that might drive them to further reduce their pricing, and that will also, we think, impact opportunities on second-hand ships. So that is really what we need to watch carefully now. But again, there is no rush. We're just preparing the company, and this might be a next-year event.

Sure. And then I wanted to get back to the convert question a little bit. I mean, obviously, you guys, it's complete common sense to want to take this out ahead of the dividend. There was no question that that needed to be done. And obviously, I would say at this point, pretty clearly, most of that's going to be converted into equity. But it does leave your share count a lot higher than what it has historically been. From a longer-term perspective, are you good with that? Or would you view the companies under-levered, assuming that all of that is converted?

I think if it converts, your leverage is going to be maybe south of 30% and so forth. But we don't have a fixed answer to what the right percentage is. We've said many times that for us, leverage really translates into cash break even levels, and we have been very careful not to run those up. But our leverage is going to change with the cycle. Right now, we're maybe very conservative. You said underlevered. But frankly, if we were able to get it down closer to 0% leverage at this point in a cycle, we'd be even more excited because then we have tremendous financial muscle built in so that we can go out and buy things when nobody else is there to do it, when it's really at the top. So that's what this is all about. And at that point, we'll be happy to you know, lever up to 50% or something like that. But, again, it's the nominal numbers that drives it. But that's the whole clue here, that we're setting up the balance sheet so that we can do the right moves in the trough.

Okay. And then lastly for me, in the June update, you talked about the Scandinavia missing its time chart. Could you maybe just give a little bit more color on that? And I don't guess there was any – ability to recapture that or anything of that sort?

No. So, you know, when you agree to do a time charter, you agree for a delivery window of the ship. And this ship was impacted by, you know, what we talked about earlier on this call, early cheeses or short tanks being full. So Scandinavia spent almost two months getting her cargo out, and just by the simple nature of that, she missed her canceling, and we didn't plan for the ship to discharge for two months. The discharge terms was only three days, and obviously we got paid the marriage in that period, but the unfortunate consequence was that we missed the charter.

Okay. All right. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Omar Nocta from Clarkson's Batuu. Please ask your question.

Hi, guys. My first question actually relates to Spine, your comments, and Ben's question in relation to the potential change in tactics. After the three-year hiatus from the investment window, Is there a particular part of the fleet you're looking at targeting? We've seen pressure really over the past several months on older vessels, resales, new building prices. You mentioned it's still all under evaluation, but anything right now that jumps out at you as attractive?

No, not really. So as we mentioned, this is just a question of explaining why we have done all the things we've done recently and preparing the company on what we expect to be sort of the next phase sort of significant activity in the company. So it's way too early to say that. If you look at our past activities, we have done M&A, we have done new buildings, we've picked up distressed assets, so it could still be a mix of those things, and we'll look at where the best value is simply.

I think in addition to that, when we do go out and acquire things, there is another aspect, and that's some sort of fleet renewal. Sure. The preference would clearly be to look at ships built since 2015 or resales, but it is at this point difficult to see ourselves going out buying 18-year-old ships to gamble on an immediate spike in the freight market.

Yeah. Yeah. That makes sense. Obviously, it's a question that we've known the answer for some time, but how do new buildings at this point, with some of the uncertainty out there, how do those fit into the equation?

Pricing today in Korea is sort of mid-high 80s, and in China it's low 80s. Last time we contracted, we did Hyundai big shifts with a lot of equipment below 80s. So you get delivery today in the first half of 2022. But again, point being, you know, we are not sort of very sort of trigger eager right now. We are preparing the company and I think you will certainly be notified when we do something.

Yeah, yeah, understood. And I have just maybe a follow-up to some of the discussion points. You've prepaid a lot of debt that's due in 21. You're in the middle of redeeming the converts. You're bringing down your scheduled repayments down drastically here for next year. You'll have plenty of flexibility. How do you think about utilizing the cash flow that's generated during the second half of this year? We know it's not going to be bonanza earnings, but you do have the TCs in place. As you mentioned, the party is going to go on until next year. How do you think about the cash that comes into the company in the second half? Do you want to prepay debt further, or do you now want to maybe build a bit of a mini war chest ahead of the potential next wave of strategy?

We think it's in the best interest of all shareholders that we prepay debt. You're reducing your interest expenses when you do that. So rather than building a war chest, earning nothing in deposit accounts, we think it's better to prepay debt. And as Vian said, we're confident that the credit's going to be there when we think it's right to start to invest again. So in the short term, it's really more of the same, that we will continue to prepay debt. It takes down the leverage, increases the financial flexibility, and it also gives us unbeatable cash break even levels in a market where we may be hit by negative surprises from a freight perspective.

Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Okay, well, thank you. That's it for me. Thank you.

Next question comes from the line of George Borman from IFS Securities. Please ask your question.

Thanks for taking my call, and congratulations to Wakewater. Thank you. Quick question. Last conference call, you mentioned that one of your ships had been involved in an accident and was out of service. Has that been covered, repaired, and is back in service?

Yes, the ship was repaired. It's definitely back in service, and there is an insurance claim, and that will obviously take time to settle, but the ship is fully operational.

Okay, great. Next question I have is on the convertible debt. that you're calling. Back of the envelope calculation at 187 per thousand would facilitate the issue of about 23 some million shares at the current conversion rate if everyone is converted. Somewhere in your press release that they talk about 34 million shares. Could you explain the difference there?

I don't know if you want to add color to that, Laila, but you're absolutely right that the convert itself is 33 point something, no, excuse me, 23 point something shares. So I'm not, I don't have the answer.

No, that's correct. A bit over 23 million is the conversion if every bondholder chooses to convert. But under Note 7, it's stated assuming the maximum fundamental change conversion rate. So that's different. This is not fundamental change.

Okay. So it would be a make-hole event.

Yes. Okay. So if everyone converts, there would be about 23 million more shares out. Yeah, that's correct. All right. And just for argument's sake here, if I don't convert, you'll pay me cash. I don't get the dividend. But if I do convert and I have to convert before the ex-dividend date, I would get the 48-cent cash dividend on my shares. Correct. Okay. And I would assume a couple of the callers have asked the question, with the tremendous amount of cash on hand, everything prepaid, rates still very positive, that you would probably entertain a stock buyback program unless the stock really trades up to its real value close to the $9, $10 level.

Yes, I'm sure you're aware that we do have a buyback program in place. It hasn't been used in a little while, but we've certainly done buybacks both of the convert and of the common equity on prior occasions. So this is something that the board will always look at, whether we should focus on cash dividends or a mix with buybacks.

Okay, great. Maybe one last question in general on the oil trade. Do you still see a lot of transportation requests from South America and the U.S. into the Far East, or has that ebbed down?

Now, as you allude to, we certainly see a strong program out to South America, with Brazil in particular. So that is going quite strongly. The U.S. is a little more irregular, but in the recent weeks, the Atlantic market has certainly been more active than the Arabian Gulf market in terms of loadings of ELCCs. So these are becoming more and more important load ports or load areas for the VLCC trade, no doubt.

So the ton miles are still overall at an increasing rate, no?

The distances are increasing, but of course right now we're suffering from a very low level of fixtures out of the Arabian Gulf.

Right. Okay.

you surely put in a great great quarter and i look forward to a very profitable future from here great thank you your next question from the line of one lopez from private investor please ask your question hello good afternoon congratulations on the results most of my questions have been answered already Just a quick one on how you look at the long-term investment projects in terms of what are the economics you look at, what is the internal rate of return you look at when buying a ship for the whole investment period. That would be very helpful at this point. Thank you.

Your line was a little blurry, but I think you were asking some of the things that Ben was touching upon earlier. what is our return requirements or expectations when we make investments. And that formula we've been discussing in the past is that when we contemplate an investment, we really look at what the required rate is to provide a 10% unlevered key, unlevered return on the investment. And we want that required rate to be meaningfully lower than historic average spot rates. So, That is really as simple as it is. We have made investments with required rates from the sort of mid-high $20,000 per day up to the mid $30,000 per day, whilst the long-term historic averages is about $42,000 a day, if I remember correctly. So that gives you some sort of indication on when we think it is interesting to deploy capital.

Okay, that's very helpful. Thank you very much.

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Silvera from RE Silvera. Please ask your question.

Hello, gentlemen, and thank you for a wonderful performance, especially during this quarter, but more reflective, I think, of your long-term strategy and approaches It shows that you're running the company extremely well. I love the philosophy of going to 0% debt so that you have built your cash the way you have built your cash to one of the highest levels on record at this point. This is extremely encouraging to us to see you doing that. I would imagine you will announce after next week the amount of conversion that has taken place.

Sure.

Yeah, I'm asking you after next week, will you announce the amount of conversion of the convertible debt that has taken place?

Yes, so post the 21st, there will be an announcement of the decision that the note holders have taken, whether to convert or whether they want to be redeemed. So we will send out a sort of a conclusion, if you like, once that is behind us.

Wonderful. Now, help me understand one thing. On your charts that you presented, you show the net debt which you have reduced this year alone by over 100 million to be down to 581.5 million on the net debt. Yet as of August 10th, you show the notional debt to be 730.6 million. Can you help me understand why there was such a large increase in the debt between the end of June and August 10th.

Laila, would you take that, please?

If you look at Note 4, you can see the total interest-bearing debt as of 30th of June. What you're referring to with NEST debt is interest-bearing debt plus cash. So I guess that answers your question.

Well, no, that's what I'm having trouble understanding. In the end of quarter two, the interest-bearing debt was 719.2, yet you say the net debt is only 581.5. And that is because of the cash and cash equivalent differential, correct?

Yes, that's correct.

Okay. Well, then the real interest bearing debt is the one we're interested in, and I'm complimenting you on reducing it so significantly. I love the fact that you have continuously increased that cash and cash equivalents to put you in a position to move strategically as the market shows you opportunity. That's wonderful. Could you give us some indication of how you see within the next year with the current rates being what they are and scrappage rates being what they are and the small order book being what it is, Do you have any feeling for the rest of this year and going into next year, the rates that will be present in our market, in the spot market?

Our industry is certainly not only cyclical, it's also very volatile and seasonal, and it's also impacted by, you know, curveballs and political decisions and OPEC and what have you. So we've been in this industry long enough and we find it very, very hard. It's not impossible to have, you know, credible rate projections. But as you alluded to, the way we manage DHT, right, is to really be able to withstand sort of any tough market, but at the same time, without giving away the upside, should sort of good times, you know, spring upon us. We think now the company is very well positioned in order to sort of move into a period that we expect will have weaker rates. To give you one indication, if you look over the past 25 years, the three worst years in this time period had earnings at about $18,000, $19,000 a day on average, those three extremely bad years. So we're not suggesting that that is representative of what's to come, but it should put in context to the cash break-even levels that we have in the company. And even in a market like that, we will generate cash.

Yes, and I think that is because you have strategically thought ahead and done a wonderful job in the decision-making that you have made. I'd like to just say thank you very much as a shareholder, our company, and receiving the sweet dividend you just gave to us, as well as increasing the cash the way you have. Just a testimony to a very well-run company. Thank you. That's all I have. Thank you.

Once again, for questions, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Scott from Scott Asset. Please ask your question.

Good afternoon. Industry-wide, there's been a lack of demolition activity. Have the ships that have reached 20 years or even 17 and a half years really been going in for special survey, or have the owners been able to defer that activity because of COVID?

I think there's been very little demolition, predominantly because of a very strong freight market. So it has afforded the owners of older ships the opportunity to continue to trade and actually pay for the dry dock. Also, we believe a lot of these older ships have been engaged in storage of oil, following the Contango opportunity that presented itself earlier this year. But I think, you know, if the market continues at current levels and you see some of the storage activity unwinding now over time, demolition activity will increase. But you asked about the COVID and you're right, there was sort of a stop in activity for a while where it was just frankly not, it wasn't really possible to take ships ashore and get crews off, et cetera, et cetera. But that is easing up and although only on the minor scale, but it's more the sort of market economics we think that is driving this than just the logistics, the logistical ability of the scrapyards.

Okay. What are you hearing from the people in the recycling industry regarding the prospect for more demolition in the fourth quarter?

We haven't really seen any prospects of that, but brokers have suggested that there's some level of increased activity in this quarter compared to what we saw in the spring. We don't really have any ships in that category, so we're not folding this market on a daily basis, if you like. Prices have gone up from the lows in the second quarter. I think that's also a reflection of some more activity.

And the activity is certainly halted by the COVID, and that is starting to get a little bit more normal now.

So your expectation would be there would be more demolition in the fourth quarter?

It all depends on freight rates, we think. As you touched upon, certainly there is an inventory of ships or big classes of ships that are coming up for special surveys and intermediate surveys. If the freight rates are lackluster and expectations are low, that's typically when you see people call it quits and start recycling. But it really rides on where spot market is and where people think it's gonna go.

Okay, let me ask a follow up. The fourth quarter is usually stronger than the third quarter. If things remain the same, when would you expect rates to go up? And conversely, if rates don't go up by what time period, would you begin to worry that the future is not going to be the same as usual?

I think what we're experiencing now is a very, very unusual year. So we've seen a phenomenally strong market in the first half. It has been stronger than most people anticipated in the third quarter, and that's partly because what we discussed on the congestion, especially off of China, but also off of the US West Coast to pick another area. So this has tied up a lot of ships, and freight rates have held up much better than normal at this time of the year. Fourth quarter, normally, yes, it's a boost. But if we see unwinding of the congestions around the world, then you could well see a situation where the fourth quarter is not as relative strong as it normally is. So right now, everything is really a bit up in the air. It's hard to have a strong conviction case on where rates are going to be in the fourth quarter compared to your third quarter.

Okay, I appreciate it. Thanks very much. Thank you.

There are no further questions at this time. Please continue.

All right. Then we'll just say thank you very much for your interest in DHT. We've had a fantastic quarter, and we're starting the third quarter on a strong footing as well. So thanks for your interest. Have a good day.