Dine Brands Global, Inc.

Hello, and welcome to the fourth quarter 2020 DynBrands Global Earnings Conference Call. My name is Grace, and I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. If anyone should require assistance during the conference, please press bar then zero on your touch-tone telephone. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Ken Dipty, Executive Director of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

Good morning, and welcome to DynGrant's fourth quarter and fiscal 2020 conference call. I'm joined by John Payton, CEO, Allison Hall, Interim CFO of Controller, Jay Johns, President of IHOP, and John Zawinski, President of Appendix. Before I turn the call over to John, please remember our safe harbor regarding forward-looking information. During the call, Management may discuss information that is forward-looking and involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors which may cause the actual results to be different than those expressed or implied. Please evaluate the forward-looking information in the context of these factors, which are detailed in today's press release and 10-K filing. The forward-looking statements are as of today and it assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements. We may also refer to certain non-guest financial methods, which are described in our press release and also available on Dime Brands and the Financial Relations website. With that, I'll turn the call over to John.

Thanks, Ken. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I'll start by saying it's an honor for me to join Dime Brands. I believe in Dime Brands because I believe in restaurants. Restaurants are essential to strong communities and human connections. And as we enter what we expect to be the beginning of the end of the pandemic, all restaurants face a common challenge, and that's that eating out in America has changed. Those who will win in the new era of restaurants are those who remained resilient and those who invested in new menu and service innovations and new technology during 2020. And that's the story of Dine Brands. We have solid fundamentals, two categories leading iconic brands, and certainly the most Let me pause and tell you a bit about my story. As a teen, I worked in my parents' restaurant. It was called the Southern Amla Station in West Philadelphia, and I was certainly humbled and stunned by the almost 24-7 demands required of my parents. After college, I went on to work as a consultant for PWC. I then was at Starwood Hotels, and most recently at Realogy. I joined Dine because I believe in the power and the allure of strong brands. Twenty years ago, a mentor of mine who was a marketing wizard taught me that brands win when they're different, better, and special. And our brands are truly different, better, and special. IHOP, for example, is a pancake-obsessed breakfast innovator that makes the most important meal of the day also the most fun. And Applebee's embodies what it means to be all-American and locally relevant. We call that eating good in the neighborhood. In other words, Applebee's and IHOP are iconic brands that connect in an emotional way with our guests. And that's important because we know restaurants are essential to the fabric of community and human connections. I also like our business model. We're 98% franchise and asset-like. We are a significant generator of cash. investments of capital, and it allows those who are best operating restaurants, our franchisee owners, to do so with our support. My 20-plus years at Starwood and Realogy taught me that successful franchising requires true partnership and that we work hard every day to ensure that our independent franchisees build valuable businesses that create generational wealth. So over the last two months, I've been on the move. I've conducted a deep dive across the company, learning more and more about our brands and dine dynamic corporate culture. So far, I've spoken with 40 franchisees in the US and around the world, and they represent 50% of the Applebee's system and more than a third of our IHOP restaurants. I've also connected with our suppliers and our bankers and our team members. I've visited our restaurants and our test kitchens, Now, despite the impact of the pandemic, Dyn's fundamentals remain solid. You may recall that in March of 2020, S&P placed the company's whole business securitization notes on CreditWatch negative, as it did with two other whole business securitizations in our industry at that time. Six months later, S&P removed our notes from CreditWatch and reaffirmed our BBB rating. Dyn was the only issuer of the three to not have its notes downgraded or remain on CreditWatch due to the pandemic. S&P's decision last fall was a great achievement for dying and illustrates that our fundamentals remain strong. And because we emerged in 2020 on sound financial footing, we plan to repay in full the $220 million drawn from our revolver last March. We expect to complete the repayment this month, resulting in interest expense savings of approximately $5 million. In addition to strong fundamentals, we have passionate franchisees who remain in very good standing. Our collection rate for royalty and marketing fees stands at approximately 99%, and the fees we deferred during Q2 of last year are being paid back according to schedule. And in addition to our fabulous franchisees, experience and industry knowledge. You'll hear from Jay and John shortly, and it's their expertise and collective wisdom that truly paid off via their extraordinary stewardship of the brands and our franchisees throughout the challenges of 2020. So looking ahead, we're anticipating a rebound in the second half of the year, driven primarily by increases in vaccination rates. Overall weekly sales trends for both brands have also improved since the week ending January We're also encouraged by our off-premise business. Both brands maintain off-premise sales of approximately one-third of total sales during the fourth quarter. And we view off-premise dining as a new consumer behavior that will live beyond the pandemic. We're continuing to invest in technology to support our growing off-premise business. And we're certainly optimistic about the athletes for Applebee's and IHOP because during times of crisis, guests, just like me and just like you, look to brands we trust. And as restaurant guests return to indoor dining, and IHOP and Applebee's are committed to their health and safety. So taken collectively, these fundamentals uniquely position Dime Brands to endure the challenges brought on by the pandemic and position us for long-term sustainable growth. Our teams focus on three objectives over the next 12 to 24 months. The first is to navigate what we believe is the beginning and the end of the crisis. The second is to win the recovery and win the new normal that follows. And the third is to evaluate long-term growth vehicles. So allow me to share a bit of my thinking about each of those. First is to navigate the beginning and the end of the crisis. Of course, we'll continue to monitor and protect cash, and we'll also focus on continuous improvement in operational health and safety standards in our restaurants. We're preparing compelling marketing campaigns and new products to drive as the recovery grows, and we are working intensely to ensure the financial health of our franchisees. Second, we'll win the recovery and win the new normal by leveraging our recent investments to reactivate our guests via one-to-one and highly targeted marketing. And we'll realign our menus to reflect learnings from the past 12 months and we'll reset the channel mix to reflect those learnings as well. And third, we'll continue to evaluate long-term growth vehicles. both traditional and non-traditional development, which includes everything from new prototypes for both brands, virtual brands, and ghost kitchens, both of which we have efforts underway. And we'll take a look at international expansion opportunities in key markets and possibly explore incorporating a third brand at the right time. As I wrap up, I want to emphasize that Dine views the crisis as both a threat and an opportunity. And while we knew it was important to play defense to protect our liquidity and our flexibility, we also played offense so that we would emerge from the crisis in a position to serve more guests, both inside and outside of our restaurants. Because we played offense in 2020, we continue to invest in new digital and CRM products that are coming online early this summer, as well as innovative menu items like IHOPpy Hour and burritos and bowls at IHOP, and Applebee's new virtual brand Cosmic Wings. And while we were investing in new technology and menu offerings, our franchisees invested in supporting their local communities by feeding and sheltering frontline workers and those in need. And so it's all of these investments combined that will pay off as our guests return to indoor dining. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Allison to provide an overview of our financial results.

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin with a business update, then review our results for the fourth quarter and the full year. Lastly, I'll discuss our financial performance guidance for 2021. During a very challenging year, we took steps to maintain our financial flexibility, including drawing down $220 million in March 2020 from our revolving credit facility, all of which remained outstanding as of December 31st. As John just mentioned, we plan to repay the $220 million during the month of March. Due to this proactive measure, we continue to have very strong liquidity. We ended 2020 with total cash and cash equivalents of $456 million, which includes restricted cash of $72.7 million. Excluding the $220 million drawn from our revolver, cash on the balance sheet was $64 million higher at the end of 2020 compared to year-end 2019. The increase was primarily due to the temporary suspension of both our quarterly cash dividends and our share repurchase program. These steps were taken in response to COVID-19 pandemic and the need to maintain financial flexibility. Additionally, we maintained tight G&A management during a year of austerity and were able to lower compensation costs following the difficult decision to furlough approximately one-third of our corporate staff for several months during 2020. Turning to our financial results, I'll begin with the notable changes on our income statement. For the fourth quarter, adjusted EPS was 39 cents compared to $1.78 for the same quarter of 2019. For 2020, adjusted EPS was $1.79 compared to $6.95 in 2019. The year-over-year decrease was due to a significant decline in customer traffic resulting from governmental capacity restrictions on dining room operations. This led to declines in domestic comp sales at both brands and a decrease in the number of Applebee and IHOP effective restaurants and lower gross profit. The impact of the pandemic on franchise operations resulted in an increase in bad debt. For 2020, our bad debt was approximately $12.8 million, as compared to virtually no bad debt for 2019. Switching gears to G&A. Given our asset-like business model, G&A remains an important lever for us. In 2020, it constituted 30% of our total revenues, excluding advertising revenues. G&A for the fourth quarter of 2020 improved to 39.4 million, from 41.7 million for the same quarter last year. The decline was primarily due to lower travel and compensation costs. G&A for the fourth quarter was lower than our guidance of approximately 45 million, primarily due to our ability to tighten G&A controls in response to the resurgence of coronavirus cases. G&A for 2020 was 144.8 million, including $4.3 million related to the company restaurant segment. This compares to $162.8 million in 2019. The decline was primarily due to G&A tire management around that, which included a decrease in compensation and travel-related costs. Now turning to the cash flow statement. Cash from operations for 2020 was $96.5 million compared to $155.2 million in 2019. The change is primarily due to a decrease in total revenues resulting from the decline in guest traffic at our restaurants, as previously discussed. Our highly franchised model will continue to generate strong adjusted free cash flow of $106.6 million in 2020 compared to $148.8 million in the prior year. The decline is primarily due to the decrease in cash from operations just discussed, primarily offset by a lower CapEx compared to 2019. We believe that our cash on hand, cash from operations, and the steps we've taken to mitigate the effects of the pandemic will allow us to continue to remain strong liquidity throughout the year as our business continues to improve. Now, regarding capital allocation, we continue to reevaluate our capital allocation strategy as industry conditions continue to improve and normal restaurant operations resume. As previously discussed, we plan to repay the $220 million drawn last March Additionally, we'll review reinstating our quarterly cash dividends and resumption of our shared repurchase program. We will also evaluate investments in our existing brands to enable platforms for both organic and non-organic growth. Now for an update on our franchisee assistance program. Dime Brands provides approximately $55.7 million in royalty, advertising fees, and rent payment deferrals to our franchisees and continues to provide assistance on a case-by-case basis. In total, we provided approximately 61 million deferrals to 223 franchisees across both brands, of which 61 have repaid their deferred balances in full. Overall, a total of approximately 32 million of the original subsequent deferrals have been repaid, and repayments are on track. Regarding adjusted EBITDA, our consolidated adjusted EBITDA for 2020 was 158.7 million, compared to 273.5 million for 2019. The decrease was primarily due to a significant decline in customer traffic resulting from the governmental mandated dining capacity restrictions discussed earlier. This led to decreases in both revenues and gross profit in 2020 compared to 2019. Because of our asset light model and low CapEx requirements, we continue to have very high quality adjusted EBITDA as CapEx represented only 7% of 2020 adjusted EBITDA. Lastly, I'll review our financial performance guidance for fiscal 2021, which reflects the projected impact of the pandemic on our guidance as of today. Due to ongoing uncertainty created by COVID-19, we currently cannot provide a complete business outlook for the year. As our business conditions continue to improve and dining capacity restrictions are lowered, we will evaluate providing additional performance guidance as necessary. We're not offering guidance around development comp sales because of the uncertainty of the recovery this year. However, I can tell you, G&A is expected to range between approximately 160 million and 170 million, including non-cash stock-based compensation expense and depreciation of approximately 45 million. Please note that this range includes approximately 500 of G&A related to the company restaurant segment. And capital expenditures are expected to be approximately 14 million, inclusive of approximately $5 million related to the company restaurant segment. To wrap up, Dine Brands has significant cash on the balance sheet and has maintained strong financial flexibility, despite the adverse conditions in 2020. Comp sales of both brands have improved significantly since the onset of the pandemic. Although there's a lot of work still ahead of us, we believe accomplishments this year have laid a solid foundation for growth. With that, I now turn the call over to John Suminski.

Thanks, Allison, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. I'm very proud of what this Applebee's team accomplished in 2020 and remain extremely optimistic about our business prospects here in 21. In partnership with our franchisees, we fundamentally altered our business model to adapt to this new environment. Applebee's comp sales progressed from minus 49.4% in Q2 to minus 13.3% in Q3 to minus 1.9% in the month of October, when we last spoke. Almost immediately thereafter, the country experienced a rather abrupt resurgence of COVID, directly impacting our Q4 trajectory. As a result, November comp sales were minus 15.0%, while December came in at minus 30.1%. Now, the good news is that business is now improving as comp sales for January and the first three weeks of February combined were minus 18.1%, rolling over a very strong 3.3% increase from the same time frame last year. Additionally, given COVID-related restrictions, we scaled back our media spending in December, January, and February. It's also important to note that not all casual dining brands are impacted equally by these restrictions, given each brand's geographic distribution. Applebee's has a disproportionately heavy penetration of its restaurants, in the Northeast and Midwest, two geographies obviously hardest hit by dining restrictions. While reflected in these recent results, this will ultimately and disproportionately benefit us as restrictions are eased over the coming months. For context, at the end of December, 412 of our dining rooms were closed due to government-imposed mandates. Thankfully, the landscape has changed dramatically over the past month, and virtually all of our 1,600 dining rooms are now open for business. In many respects, our current operating environment feels very similar to late summer of last year, if you recall, when we saw Applebee's sales momentum accelerate as restrictions were eased, including our first positive sales week at the end of September. In barring unforeseen circumstances, I anticipate a similar dynamic to unfold very soon here in 21. Now, for the month of February, Applebee's sales mix consisted of 63% dine-in, 22% car side to go, and 15% delivery. On the off-premise front, we continue to enhance car side to go with the upcoming introduction of a third-party app called Flyby that notifies restaurant teams through geofencing the moment our guest arrives on the lot. Also, our franchise partner in Arkansas recently opened Applebee's first drive-thru window, In addition to being very well received by team members and guests, this dedicated drive-through lane eliminates weather challenges, improves throughput, and importantly, extends our late-night-to-go operating hours. From a delivery perspective, our tamper-evident packaging is now fully deployed throughout the brand as another visible point of guest reassurance. Without question, our off-premise investments over the past year have broadened Applebee's reach and relevance across this important convenience-driven occasion. Now, with respect to Applebee's on-premise business, I anticipate our 63% sales mix to naturally elevate this year as indoor dining gradually returns. And I firmly believe dining room service will be an unmistakable core strength for Applebee's as guests look for that long overdue escape from home where they can once again connect with one another over a good meal and perhaps a drink. Most importantly, these guests will naturally gravitate to brands that have earned their trust and loyalty throughout the pandemic. On this front, we're confident Applebee's is exceptionally well positioned. This optimism is supported by our very strong brand affinity and visit intent metrics, which have proven to be reliable leading indicators of brand performance. And as the year progresses, we'll continue to deploy guest-facing digital technology such as our Pay and Go initiative, designed to provide easy mobile payment options without the need for a server. Now, I'd like to take a moment to discuss our virtual brand evolution. As you may know, we just launched Cosmic Wings nationally on February 17th, introducing a fully differentiated virtual brand, targeting a younger audience around the Wings meal occasion. At the moment, Cosmic Wings remains an online platform delivery-only concept available via Uber Eats and fulfilled through approximately 1,250 Applebee's kitchens. In addition to craveable wings, tenders, waffle fries, and onion rings, the team has developed a proprietary menu of Cheetos original wings, Cheetos flame and hot wings, as well as Cheetos cheese bites. This innovation work is exclusive to Applebee's and the culmination of our ongoing partnership between our culinary and marketing teams, franchisees, PepsiCo, and Frito-Lay. While it's far too early to draw any conclusions, Cosmic Wings averaged $510 of incremental sales per restaurant last week in its first full week of operation, showing a steady build from day to day. We're very pleased with these initial results and will certainly be in a better position to quantify the ultimate financial impact of Cosmic Wings on our next call. We've also been active in piloting our first ghost kitchens in partnership with our franchisees with two in Philadelphia, one in Los Angeles, and another soon to open in Miami. To clarify, these are low capital investment, small footprint kitchens without a street front presence designed to satisfy online delivery demand for Applebee's where we currently don't have restaurant penetration. The business model here appears attractive in the right geographies where a brick and mortar presence may not be feasible. Now, as I reflect upon this past year, I know our guests genuinely trust Applebee's, perhaps now more than ever. Whether it's in their family rooms or in our dining rooms, there's no more relevant brand positioning for this environment than eating good in the neighborhood, as John referenced. And thanks to the resilience and fortitude of our franchise partners, the Applebee's ad fund is in great shape, allowing us to reestablish our national media presence as we engage America with compelling messaging. To this point, last week we launched our latest national event, five boneless wings for a buck with the purchase of any burger, which is resonating extraordinarily well. In fact, last week Applebee's achieved our single highest sales volume week since the pandemic outbreak in mid-March of last year. That's 50 weeks ago. It's also worth noting that we are strategically and tactically aligned with our franchisees around our full-year marketing and innovation plan, along with contingencies given the obvious need for agility in this environment. In closing, I believe Applebee's is near an inflection point, and that America's pent-up demand for dining out is indeed very real. We saw this trajectory last year, up until the resurgence of the virus, and I'm confident we'll see it again this year very soon. And when this does occur, Our franchise partners are very well positioned to not only return to sustained growth, but to thrive in a post-pandemic environment as they unlock the full potential of the Applebee's brand. With that, I'll turn it to Jay.

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. We are very optimistic about the road ahead for IHOP for several reasons. First, our quarterly comp sales have improved meaningfully from a decline of 59.1%. for the second quarter to a decline of 30.1% for the fourth quarter, reflecting a net increase of 29 percentage points since the pandemic began. Second, the brand is well-positioned to benefit from pent-up demand when restrictions on dining room capacity are eased and we have a strategy in place to capture it. Lastly, our development pipeline remains strong and new opportunities are being pursued. As we close out the fourth quarter, which is on par with the family dining category. Our performance, especially the final six weeks, was adversely impacted by the resurgence in coronavirus cases. We were particularly impacted in California and Texas, which collectively comprise approximately 25% of our domestic restaurants. Our results for January 2021 improved to minus 26.8%, representing a gain of 10 percentage points from December. February's comp sales through week ending February 21st were down 27.6%. For the same period, our sales mix consisted of 66% dine-in, 16.9% to-go, and 17.1% delivery. As we continue to navigate the ever-changing environment, we have four strategies to help the brand drive growth. Number one, focusing on our PM day part. Number two, value. Number three, maintaining our gains in off-premise sales. And number four, development growth. To address our first and second strategies of PM, day part, and value, we launched iHoppy Hour on September 28th, which offers our guests a wide array of value options during the afternoon and evening hours or later, depending on the locations. We believe this new value platform will not only play an important part in strengthening and expanding our PM business, but also drive off-premise sales in locations where it's available. iHobby Hour is driving incremental sales in the mid to high teens and approximately 20% incremental traffic compared to the rest of the day. This equates to a low to mid single-digit lift in both sales and traffic for the whole week. iHoppy Hour is consistently four times more effective at driving traffic than any window we've had during that time. Our third strategy is growing our strong off-premise business. As consumer sentiment is shifting and off-premises becoming more accepted around the country, our mixes remain strong. For the fourth quarter, off-premise was 33.3% of total sales compared to 32.4% for the third quarter. To provide more color, to-go accounted for approximately 17% of sales mix and delivery accounted for approximately 16%. Off-premise comp sales for the fourth quarter grew by 130% driven primarily by traffic. We believe that we can retain a significant amount of this growth even as dining room capacity restrictions are eased over time. Conducive to this is the high portability of IHOP's menu and our proprietary off-premise packaging, which keeps our food warm approximately 40 minutes after leaving the restaurant. Additionally, we implemented Curbside to Go quickly at the onset of the pandemic and continue investment in our IHOP and Go platform. Biop's latest menu innovation is our all-new signature burritos and bowls, which was introduced this past January. The six new burritos and bowls were designed with creative flavor combinations and easy portability in mind for guests to enjoy wherever they please and appeal to guests across all day parts. The results since the launch are very encouraging, with burritos and bowls capturing approximately 8% of ticket order incidents based on our soft launch without a full media and marketing campaign. Switching gears to our fourth strategy, development. As we look at growth heading into 2021 and beyond, we'll grow our IHOP brand with four different platforms. First, traditional development, of which we have a stable pipeline as a result of franchisee obligations that were deferred as part of our assistance during the pandemic. Second, non-traditional development, which is led by our largest agreement in our 62-year history with Travel Centers of America for 94 restaurants over five years. Third, the resumption of work on our flipped by IHOP concept, which we expect to open our first locations this year. And fourth and finally, we've developed a new small prototype that we intend to test this year. We expect it to provide new opportunities for franchisee growth with a higher return on investment, allowing us to go into areas we might not have been able to penetrate previously. For 2021, we expect to continue to reinvigorate our growth that was hindered by the pandemic. Now, for an update on our domestic restaurants open for business. As of December 31st, 1,174 restaurants, or 70% of our domestic system, was open for in-restaurant dining with restrictions. This compares to 1,425 restaurants, or 85% as of September 30th. The decline in locations open for in-restaurant service was primarily due to the spike in coronavirus cases discussed earlier. Turning to the unit guidance for restaurant closures we provided in October. As a reminder, given the impact of the pandemic on individual restaurant level economics, we evaluated only greatly underperforming restaurants that we determined had a greater chance of not being viable coming out of the pandemic. These restaurants were generally some of the lowest performing units in the system based on sales and franchisee profitability. This program concluded with 41 closures over the last six months, which is well below our initial projection of up to 100 restaurants. We remain confident that we'll eventually replace these severely underperforming locations and grow our footprint with better performing restaurants that have volumes closer to our pre-COVID AUV of approximately 1.9 million. To close, We're executing against our four strategies to drive our growth, which includes PM day part expansion, value, maintaining our gains in off-premise sales, and development growth. We've done the heavy lifting to position the brand for long-term success and build an insurmountable lead in family dining. I'm pleased with what our franchisees and team members have accomplished during a very challenging year, and I'm very optimistic about the road ahead. With that, I'll now turn the call back over to John Payton for his closing comments. John? Thanks, Jay.

We have a tremendous team, and I want to thank Allison and John and Jay. It's truly because of their leadership, particularly during the pandemic, that Dine and its brands are poised to enjoy significant upside potential in 2021 and beyond. Understandingly, though, a meaningful change in performance trajectory will not happen immediately, but I'm confident in our ability to restore sustainable same-restaurant sales momentum in the second half of 2021 as more people are vaccinated and guests who are eager to dine out return to our restaurants. I have absolute faith that our franchisees and our talented team members will lead us into a new restaurant renaissance. Our strong fundamentals remain intact. We're positioning Dyn for long-term growth and continuing to evolve as a guest-centric, data-driven organization. And so with that, we're pleased to take your questions. Thanks.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question at this time, please press the number one key on your touch-tone telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to remove yourself from the queue, please press the pound key. Your first question comes from the line of Jake Bartlett from Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Great, thanks for taking the question. My first is really on the regional performance, and I understand there's a lot going on with weather and restrictions being tightened. But could you give us a sense of how stores have performed in the markets that have had the least restrictions? I'm thinking of markets like Florida in terms of how the indoor dining has been recovering and then what's been happening with the off-premise mix in markets like that.

Jake, this is John Sywinski. It's a good question. I won't quantify what we see, but suffice it to say those geographies with very few restrictions perform well. You see a, not surprisingly, a larger percentage mix than the national average for dine-in. And you may in fact see the inverse of what we saw in our most restricted geographies where two-thirds of our business was off-premise and a third on-premise. In those least restricted geographies, we see the inverse of that. And we like the revenue results that we see and we're anxious to get the full national brand back to that point. We have significant variability, as you know, across the country geographically. And some of those geographies that you reference are are benchmark geographies for us. They paint a picture as to what's possible, and it's very favorable.

Hey, Jake, this is Jay Johns at IHOP. I would say ditto to most everything that John said. The only other thing that I might add is that you asked about the to-go business and how that holds up as well. I think that there's an absolute direct correlation between opening up and not having restrictions and the performance of those restaurants. But I do think the to-go business has held up really well, even as restaurants have opened up. We're maintaining a lot of that to-go business, most of that to-go business as we move forward. So clearly one of the keys for us is just as these areas open up, we're going to do a better job.

Great, that's really helpful. And a question, John, on the Applebee's. You made the comment that last week's average weekly sales were the strongest since the COVID crisis began. Is that to imply that same-store sales were actually positive for Applebee's last week?

Jake, I won't, again, I'll resist quantifying that, but I'll make two points. Number one, the last week data that I referenced is not in the data that was disclosed in our release, which is only through the first three weeks of February. Suffice it to say, it was a significant trajectory shift in a very favorable fashion from what we saw earlier in February. Make sense?

That does. And then my last question here, really on the closures at IHOP. I just want to clarify, when you mentioned the 100 stores that were possible that you were looking at, was that just a comment on the domestic side? I noticed that there's a fair amount of international closures this quarter, but less than I expected on the domestic side, which is great. But one, just to clarify that, and then two, just to clarify that the closures, the majority of closures you think are ended, I think you used the word end, concluded in terms of kind of assessing those stores. So should we expect elevated closures leading into 2021 or, you know, has the system essentially kind of been cleaned up already and now we're kind of set for some actual net growth?

Well, I think to begin with, your question about what was the 100 referring to, that was referring to potentially domestically up to 100. And what I mean by that program, that was a special program that we had done this research on these restaurants and worked with franchisees on those particular locations, and that program has come to a close. Now, as a regular course of business, You know, there's always going to be other closures, et cetera, but as far as that particular program, that's over at 41.

Okay. And was that program involving kind of lifting, you know, any penalties for closing? Was it kind of a, you know, promotion of trying to kind of clean up the system?

Well, obviously, we worked with the franchisees together on this to, you know, in a way to help their position for the rest of their portfolios in many cases. So we work directly with the franchisees on that and on how we work those out of the system. But like I said, that program was a unique thing that we put together. I'm not going to share specific details on what fees were, et cetera, but that program is over. We're back to kind of running the business with our normal review of any kind of requests franchisees have at this point.

Great. I appreciate it. Thank you very much.

Thanks. Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Nick Steckian from WebBush Securities. Your line is open.

Hi. Thank you. Is the marketing now back? And then also on the virtual brand, is there a like a target weekly sales number internally that you guys, or at least just directionally, you guys are willing to share, especially since there is a peer benchmark out there?

Hey, Nick. This is John Sywinski. On the marketing front, we love our position. We'll be, you know, as you look at the year, we're a bit light in Q1, quite candidly, as I mentioned. We did pull back on media spending in January and February, which means Q2, 3, and 4 are going to look pretty favorable when you assess the full year. Virtual brand, your question on is there a threshold in any new investment? And keep in mind, this is very capital light. It's a fairly easy investment. Our operators execute well. We do expect a minimum threshold of incremental sales performance. You could call that directionally a percentage point, but we believe there's significant upside beyond that. But it's just too early, Nick, to begin to frame that. We only have 10-plus days in market, and what I will tell you is we see steady improvement sequentially from one day to the next.

Got it. And then a question on margins. The Applebee's gross margin, I think it's 102.6 for the core. Is that just a reflection of their recovery of some of the deferrals? And then on the IHOP, 67.3. Any kind of an outlook there sort of for 2021, at least directionally, and what's really going on there with the gross margin at IHOP?

So this is Allison. The gross profit margin on Applebee's, you'll see there's an increase in bad debts year-over-year, but we're not giving any guidance related to 2020 other than G&A, I'm sorry, 2021 other than G&A and CapEx. Male Speaker 1 Okay.

Thank you very much.

Female Speaker 2 Thank you. Next up, we have questions from Brian Vaccaro from Raymond James, your line is open.

Thank you, and good afternoon. I had a couple questions on the quarter-to-date trends you mentioned for each brand, and I appreciate the comments on average weekly sales and the improvement you're seeing there. I think you said Applebee's up eight, IHAP up six, and I wasn't sure if that's compared to kind of the reported AWS in the fourth quarter, or were you comparing that to December? So we're on the same page. Could you disclose kind of average weekly sales for each brand in that quarter-to-date period?

Are you talking about in the fourth quarter? Are you talking about what we talked about?

No, in the quarter-to-date period. So you said you've improved 6%, but what does that mean? Is that versus December? Is that versus around 27 you did in the fourth quarter? Just trying to get sort of a current average weekly sales check, basically, for both brands.

Well, for IHOP, we have actually, I think my comment was we had improved 10 percentage points from December into January. So clearly, when things were really shut down those last six weeks of Q4, we were struggling. We have come back nicely in January, February, and if you look at the trends on our stock, back to last year, we were making great progress and the trends were going great until those last six weeks of the year where we took a little bit of a dive and then we're coming back slowly out of that. The correlation that I see is directly related to the closures. As cities are starting to open up now, I'm seeing that that's going to trend in the right direction, but I don't want to give any real Real specific numbers on that in quarter right now.

Hey, Brian. This is John C. On the Applebee's front, as I referenced, we were down 30%, 30.1, I believe, for December. And then about 12 percentage point favorable move. Down 18% in the first seven weeks of the quarter. Very similar January and the early part of February. Keep in mind some pretty meaningful weather impact in a couple of those February weeks. And then we are just now, as I referenced, beginning to reengage with meaningful national marketing, which we believe will have significant impact.

Brian, John, Peter. So for those first seven weeks of January and February, we're comparing number one to same week prior year, and then each of the weeks in January and February is improving relative to the last.

Yeah, no, that's helpful. I appreciate that. And also I just wanted to ask in terms of given how important having dining rooms open is to the overall sales, and I appreciate I think it was 80% of Applebee's and 70% at the end of December, but what does that look like today in terms of the number of units? I guess you said 99% at Applebee's, but what does that look like on IHOP today, percent dining rooms that are open?

We've only got about 33 restaurants that are not open for some form of business right now, and we've got about 200 that may still be doing mostly to-go or patios only right now. We've got a heavy presence in California, obviously, so there's a lot of our restaurants that still are impacted.

And Brian, on the Applebee's front, we've got about 10 dining rooms currently closed, half of those are which is great news.

Yeah, that's great. That's great. And I appreciate you mentioning shifting gears a little bit to the development side. I appreciate the update on the IHOP side. I guess assuming no major setbacks in the broader COVID recovery narrative, would you expect to return to net unit growth at IHOP in 21, or perhaps that could take into 22? And then what's a reasonable expectation on closures at Applebee's this year?

Yeah, on the IOP side, this is Jay again. On the IOP side, we're just not given any guidance yet on exactly how this is going to play out. We clearly have franchisees that are interested in developing, but they're still in the middle of COVID right now. So the rate at which that comes back, we're just going to have to wait and see how that plays out.

And Brian, on your question regarding Applebee's, we certainly haven't forecasted it's difficult in this environment other than to say As John referenced, franchisee collections on royalty and advertising are superior, and we're very optimistic about this 1,600-unit portfolio. As you know, we've cleaned up much of this, kind of the non-viable assets over time, over the last three to four years, but we'll resist framing any expectation or number at this point in time.

All right, fair enough. And then just last one for me, I wanted to ask on cosmic wings. Could you highlight some of the key differences on cosmic wings versus neighborhood wings or perhaps comment on your approach to marketing the concept or other differences that are worth mentioning there? And sorry if I missed it, but is there an expected timeline on when it might be offered from all 1600 domestic locations?

Brian, I'm glad we piloted Neighborhood Wings last year. As you know, we did so in several hundred restaurants. What we learned was very clear. The brand itself, the virtual brand, needs to be differentiated and separated in some respects in terms of positioning from Applebee's. The menu itself needs to be proprietary and perhaps buzzworthy. Our teams need to be able to execute that brand well, and the naming was important. We, along with the targeting, we had a very specific demographic here, a bit more youthful, a bit of a male skew, Cheetos lovers, delivery lovers, wings lovers, and given that demographic profile, the naming and the positioning fell quite naturally to us, but you'll notice we did not incorporate the word or the name Applebee's in that. So Cosmic Wings, we validated that with consumers, with that demo in particular. It resonated exceptionally well. And your question on timeframe again, Brian, what was that question?

Yeah, just thinking, I think you said Cosmic Wings is currently offered from about, I think it was 1,250 Applebee's units. I'm just wondering if and when it will be available across the system domestically.

I would expect so. 1,250 is with our partnership with Uber Eats, and where they have a strong presence, obviously we will have a strong presence. Could this brand be expanded in terms of distribution channels? Yes. and I'll resist how that may unfold, but you can draw your own conclusions, Brian. It's been very well received, and so I would anticipate exploring all options moving forward after the first couple of months.

Very helpful. I'll pass it along. Thank you.

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Todd Brooks from C.O. King & Associates. Your line is open.

Hey, thanks for taking my question. First, if we could talk maybe weather and storm impact. We had that couple of tough weeks and actually still some tough weeks for Texas and a couple of the other states down south. But especially looking at the weekly IHOP sales, they've been remarkably consistent across the first seven weeks. And That's just a bit of a surprise to me, given it looks like almost a quarter of the stores are in that kind of Texas, Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina belt. So if we could talk maybe about the IHOP performance and lost store days at both brands due to the winter weather that we've had down south.

Well, I think on the IHOP side... There's interesting drivers on our side of what, as we talked about before, capacity is probably the absolute most important thing. Obviously, when you get weather like that, close the restaurants down. We had about 200 restaurants across our system that were closed for multiple days because of weather impact as it spread across the country. So clearly we had some impact on it. I don't think we've teased out all of the information as far as the total impact that we could say is only related to that. Holidays are a big impact for us as well. So when you look at the first quarter so far, there's been a lot of different holidays, a lot of different weeks that are a little different. odd compared to just a regular run rate week. As soon as we started to get the momentum going one direction, then the weather hit. This past week, we were rolling over National Pancake Day from last year, which we canceled this year and have moved it to a spread out through April events. So there's a lot of things that just don't sync up real well. So you may be seeing some odd numbers just because there's a lot going on in this data that is somewhat inconsistent when you look at it. I think the general trend, I would say, though, is if you take a step back and look at it in the big picture, we are trending the right direction. We keep having these little hiccups that happen on given weeks, but I feel that this is about ready to make a nice move forward for us as the capacity restrictions are lifted.

And, Todd, on the amphibious front, had it not been for weather, we would have seen sequential improvement from January to the first three weeks of February. I won't quantify it. It's a little less than 100 basis points of impact.

Okay, great. That's helpful. Thanks. And then, Can we talk, going back national advertising-wise, John, I think you said Applebee's back on in the past week or so, and Jay, I don't think you commented if IHOP's back on yet or not, but this has been such a positive driver for the same-store sales recovery in fiscal 20, in the second half of the year. Can we talk about maybe share a voice that's out there now that you're going back into national advertising and then anticipated or hoped for lifts as you start to leg into especially those bigger weights when you get into Q2 through Q4?

Hey, Todd, this is Jay. On the marketing front, we never went completely dark. We were always doing some kind of marketing, be it digital or one-to-one. We cut back some on what you would see as the big, larger national TV campaigns, etc. So just like Applebee's, We have spread our budget a little differently this year just based on capacities, et cetera, and we are very confident. We have a great plan for the year both with innovation and marketing and how we're going to come to market with things. So I feel very comfortable. We've got a really good plan. We should have plenty of money. As long as the bottom doesn't fall out of the thing again, which with some kind of – COVID resurgence that's really bad. I think we're going to have a nice portfolio of things to promote and we're going to have a lot of money to do that when we get into the second, third, fourth quarters.

And Todd, on the Applebee's side, you referenced it. We have something this year that we didn't have last year. We know how the brand has performed as restrictions ease and and guests are more willing to dine out. So that trajectory you referenced last year, May through September, we moved from minus 50% to our first positive week of sales. And we really have an exceptional team, and they understand how to message both rationally and emotionally, and that pacing and sequencing of messaging with our guests as we evolve out of this pandemic, is something where they really do have a finger on the pulse, so to speak. And you're seeing the start of that right now, and I anticipate it will unfold, and perhaps that trajectory will look similar, if not better, than what we saw over a five-month timeframe last year.

That's very helpful. Thanks to you both. Thank you. Thanks, Todd.

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Brett Levy from MKM Partners. Your line is open.

Great. Thanks, and good morning to you guys. Good afternoon from us. If you could talk a little bit more on how you're thinking about the capital allocation plans. Obviously, debt paydown is going to be the biggest and the most immediate, but when you look at not just to the shareholders, but what else can you do in terms of investing in the infrastructure and also franchisee support. And then John Payton, I have a question for you.

So in terms of the capital allocation strategy, obviously we wanted to pay down the VFN, the $220 million that we borrowed in March, which we're going to do this month. You know, we really can't say at this point because industry conditions are very variable at this time. You know, we definitely want to continue to look at our dividends. our repurchase of shares, investments both organically and non-organically. But it's really difficult to really put anything down at this point just due to the industry conditions.

On the M&A front, obviously you're not looking for names, but what kind of criteria make your wish list if you were to go outside of your own system?

just tack a little bit onto the last thing that Allison mentioned as well. You know, when it comes to capital, there's obviously there's the thinking about dividends and shareholder return and buyback. But we're also looking at investments in technology, in virtual brands based upon our learnings from Cosmic Wings, possibly exploring the acquisition of a third brand. So, you know, we're looking at all of that as we look toward 2022 and beyond. You know, when it comes to M&A, when we do think about it, we'll be looking at a tuck-in acquisition, certainly substantial enough that it's accretive, but with the potential to grow to the size of our current brands or close to it. We're certainly interested in a high-growth category that is complementary to the two segments that we're in and not competitive with our existing brands.

And then, John, just... You talked about all the things that you viewed as positives as you joined into the DIME story, and now excluding capacity and restrictions, because those are obviously challenges outside of your concerns. Where do you see the greatest opportunities for low-hanging fruit, and what do you still see as the largest challenges and impediments to not just the recovery, but to meaningfully take share from your peers? Thanks.

Sure, thank you. So in the short term, the biggest opportunity is vaccines, vaccines, vaccines. And, you know, we are optimistic that people, all of us, are anxious to get out, see other people, hug other people, and reestablish a sense of connection and community, and restaurants is the place to do that. Over the long term, we are focused on and we've been investing throughout 2020 in the digital technology that's necessary to facilitate off-premise dining. We think that the growth in off-premise is incremental for us. We think it's going to settle somewhere above where we were pre-pandemic. We think it's introduced new conditions. And we think we're now in the consideration set for takeout and delivery in a way that we weren't before because we've demonstrated our ability to deliver. So one of the bets for the future is certainly off-premise dining facilitated by our investment in digital and things like that. Thank you.

Thank you. And that is the time that we have for questions today. I would now like to turn the conference back to Mr. John Payton for any closing remarks.

Just want to say thank you to all of you for your questions. For Allison and me, this is our first time speaking with all of you, and we enjoyed it and are looking forward to conversations throughout the day. And to our veterans, John and Jay, thanks as well for telling the story of your brand and answering the questions so well. We appreciate all of your interest and investment in our company and look forward to talking to you throughout the day. Thanks very much.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you all for joining.