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spk03: Welcome to the HF Sinclair Corporation and Holley Energy Partners second quarter 2022 conference call and webcast. Hosting the call today is Mike Jennings, Chief Executive Officer of HF Sinclair and Holley Energy Partners. He is joined by Rich Volova, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of HF Sinclair and President of Holley Energy Partners, and Tim Goh, President and Chief Operating Officer of HF Sinclair. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. If you would like to ask a question at that time, please press star 1 on your touchtone phone. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by once again pressing star 1. If you should require operator assistance, please press star 0. We ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Additionally, we ask that you pick up your handset to allow optimal sound quality. Please note that this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Craig Beery, Vice President, Investor Relations. Craig, you may begin.
spk12: Thank you, Rex. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to HF Sinclair Corporation and Holley Energy Partners' second quarter 2022 earnings call. This morning, we issued press releases announcing results for the quarter ending June 30th, 2022. If you would like a copy of the press release, you may find them on our website at hfsinclair.com and hollyenergy.com. Before we proceed with remarks, please note the safe harbor disclosure statement in today's press releases. In summary, it says statements made regarding management expectations, judgments, or predictions are forward-looking statements. These statements are intended to be covered under the safe harbor provisions of federal security laws. There are many factors that could cause results to differ from expectations, including those noted in our SEC filings. The call also may include discussion of non-GAAP measures. Please see the earnings press releases for reconciliations to GAAP financial measures. Also, please note any time-sensitive information provided on today's call may no longer be accurate at the time of any webcast replay or rereading of the transcript. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Mike Jennings. Great. Thanks, Greg. Good morning, everyone.
spk04: Today we reported second quarter net income attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders of $1,221,000,000, or $5.43 per diluted share. These results reflect special items that collectively decreased net income by $37 million. Excluding these items, adjusted net income for the second quarter was $1,259,000,000, or $5.59 per diluted share. As compared to adjusted net income of $144 million or 87 cents per diluted share for the same period in 21. Adjusted EBITDA for the current quarter was 1.9 billion, an increase of more than 1.5 billion compared to the second quarter of 2021. Our second quarter results reflect the combined benefits of an improved global economy and demand picture. refined product and lubricant supplies that are constrained by the actions taken in response to both the COVID-19 pandemic and sanctions due to the Ukraine conflict and our successful and countercyclical acquisitions of the Puget Sound refinery and the Sinclair assets. To date, we have achieved annualized run rate synergies of over $90 million related to the Sinclair acquisition and over $100 million of working capital synergies. We're on pace to exceed our target of approximately 100 million in annual run rate synergies within two years of the acquisition close date through a combination of commercial improvements, operating expense reductions, and SG&A optimization. We also announced today that our board of directors declared a regular dividend of 40 cents per share payable on September 1st, 2022 to holders of record August 18th. During the quarter, we returned over $200 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We repurchased 2.7 million shares of common stock, totaling $132 million in connection with our share repurchase program. As of June 30, 2022, we have remaining authorization to repurchase up to $868 million under this stock repurchase program, and we expect to remain active throughout the second half of 2022. We remain fully committed to our capital allocation strategy of returning $1 billion to shareholders no later than the first quarter of 2023, while maintaining our solid balance sheet and investment grade rating. Heading into the second half of the year, we're constructive on the outlook for transportation fuels supported by low product inventories and healthy global demand. Looking forward, we will continue executing our strategic initiatives. We remain focused on the integration of our recently acquired assets from Sinclair while maintaining safe and reliable operations. We see great value with the Dyno brand as we look to grow the marketing segment within our existing geographies. With all of our previously announced renewables projects complete, we will continue to ramp up production of these assets as we expect to reach full production levels by the end of the third quarter and quarter of 2022. As one of the largest producers of renewable diesel, we are excited about the opportunity of providing low-carbon fuels to our customers while realizing the incremental earnings uplift from our investments. So with that, let me turn the call over to Rich.
spk10: Thank you, Mike. Let's begin by reviewing H.S. Sinclair's financial highlights. As previously mentioned, the second quarter included a few unusual items. Pre-tax earnings were negatively impacted by a lower cost-to-market inventory valuation adjustment of $35 million, acquisition integration costs of $13 million, and decommissioning charges of half a million dollars related to the Cheyenne refinery conversion to renewable diesel production. A table of these items can be found in our press release. Net cash provided by operations totaled $1.5 billion, which included $25 million of turnaround spending and $33 million of cash sourced from working capital. HF Sinclair's standalone capital expenditures totaled $150 million for the second quarter. As of June 30th, 2022, HF Sinclair's total liquidity stood at approximately $3.3 billion, comprised of a standalone cash balance of $1.7 billion, along with our undrawn $1.65 billion unsecured credit facility. On June 30th, we had $1.74 billion of standalone debt with a debt-to-cap ratio of 16% and a net debt-to-cap ratio of 1%. HEP distributions received by HF Sinclair during the first quarter totaled $21 million. HF Sinclair owns 59.6 million HEP limited partner units, which following the acquisition of Sinclair Transportation represents 47% of HEP's outstanding LP units a market value of $1 billion as of last Friday's close. Let's go through some guidance items. We have reduced our expected capital guidance for 2022 to the range of $785 to $950 million. We now expect to spend between $225 and $250 million in refining, between $250 and $300 million in renewables, $45 to $60 million at lubes and specialties, $15 to $25 million in marketing, $90 to $110 million at corporate, and $110 to $130 million for turnarounds and catalysts. At HEP, we expect to spend $50 to $75 million in total capital. With respect to tax, we received $83 million in cash during the second quarter of 2022. under the lost carryback provision in the CARES Act. Going forward, the H.F. Sinclair corporate tax rate is expected to be in the range of 19 to 21 percent. For the second quarter of 2022, we expect to run between 630 and 650,000 barrels per day of crude oil in our refining segment. We have no major turnarounds at our fuels refineries scheduled for the remainder of 2022. Turning to Holley Energy Partners, second quarter net income attributable to HEP was $56.8 million compared to $55.7 million in the second quarter of 2021, which included a $5.3 million gain related to our refined product pipeline sale. Excluding this gain, net income was $50.5 million for the second quarter of 2021. The year-over-year increase It was primarily attributable to earnings related to the recently acquired Sinclair Transportation assets, partially offset by higher interest expense and operating costs. EGP's second quarter 2022 adjusted EBITDA was $104.2 million compared to $88.3 million in the same period last year. A reconciliation table reflecting these adjustments can be found in EGP's press release. HEP generated distributable cash flow of 78.5 million, and we announced a second-quarter distribution of 35 cents per LP unit, resulting in a distribution coverage ratio of 1.8 times. This distribution is to be paid on August 12th to unit holders of record as of August 1st. During the second quarter, HEP's total capital expenditures were approximately $15 million, including $7 million in turnaround expenses related to our Woods Cross refinery processing units, $5 million of maintenance capex, $2 million of reimbursable capex, and $1 million in expansion capital. For 2022, our capital expenditure forecast was revised slightly to $50 to $75 million. Looking forward, HEP remains committed to our capital allocation framework as we continue to reduce leverage using retained cash flow. We are on track to achieve our short-term leverage target of three and a half times by year end, and we expect to increase unit holder returns in 2023. And with that, Rex, we're ready to take questions.
spk03: The floor is now open for questions. At this time, if you have questions or comments, please press star 1 on your touch-tone phone. We ask that you please limit to one question and one follow-up. If you have additional questions, we welcome you to rejoin the queue. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by once again pressing star 1. Thank you. Our first question comes from Manav Gupta with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
spk06: Hey guys, and congrats on this counter statistical strategy of buying assets. I know you got a little pushback earlier on it, but clearly it's delivering results. My question here is, you know, now you have operated Sinclair assets for a quarter. Clearly you like what you see. You're kind of indicating to higher synergies. So talk us a little, what were the positive surprises of the Sinclair acquisition and maybe one area where you thought it would be stronger and more work is needed at this stage?
spk09: Manav, this is Tim. I'll start with maybe some specifics and then let the group talk about a little higher level. We're very pleased with the Sinclair assets and especially the Sinclair employees over this last quarter of working together. I think one pleasant surprise was the synergies or the logistics opportunities that we've been able to see both on the crude side and on the product side. has led to us running higher throughput rates at Woods Cross and Casper than either site could have run separately. So I think that's been exciting. We've set monthly records at both locations, and it's only because of the employees working together through the logistics assets to be able to accomplish that.
spk04: Beyond that, we're super excited about this brand and the opportunity to be more vertically integrated in terms of our product distribution. You asked specifically for something where we haven't fulfilled our hopes and dreams yet, and I'll say it's there. We have a lot to do and a lot of opportunity within branded distribution, and we are adding stores. We see opportunity within our existing refining footprint, and that's really where a lot of work is going to be as we look forward, is converting this downstream distribution from wholesale rack to more of a branded approach. And there's plenty of opportunity in front of us.
spk06: Perfect. My quick follow-up here is another very strong quarter for the rack-forward business. Help us understand a little the dynamics which are driving this trend. And also, what's your vision for the entire Lube's business? Are you looking to grow it? Are you happy with the footprint you have? If you could talk a little bit about those things.
spk09: Yeah, Manav, this is Tim. Again, I'll start specifically talking about the RAC Forward business, and then I'll let Mike finish up with your broader question. We had another strong quarter, record quarter, for lubes, as you pointed out. Despite the RAC back or the increase in prices in base oils, our RAC Forward business has been able to keep up, which has been encouraging. A couple of things that we've talked about over the last year that are really starting to play out is skew rationalization and upgrade in our product mix that I think is really driving the improved results that we're seeing. Skew rationalization, we're up to 20, 25% of skews that we're able to simplify the business, take costs out, lower working capital, reduce carrying costs. All of that is driving us to better synergies or better efficiencies. Better yields and upgrade in our product mix is also helping us as we continue to focus on process oils and specialty businesses versus the passenger car motor oils, for example. You're also seeing better integration between our feedstocks coming from our Tulsa refinery, tying to our Finish Loops business with Petrolia and with Mississauga. All three of those really are contributing to these stronger results.
spk04: But now from a little higher level, as to whether we consider this to be core or not, we absolutely do. We think we can grow it, and we like the business. At the same time, we obviously take note of external markers, particularly the Valvoline transaction, and we're pragmatic about this business and any other that we own in terms of inside versus outside valuation. But for the time being... We see a lot of meat on the bone here, and we think we can grow this business.
spk06: Thank you for taking my questions, and congrats on a great quarter.
spk04: Thank you.
spk03: Your next question comes from Paul Chang of Scotiabank. Your line is open.
spk07: Hey, guys. Good morning. Hi, Paul. Good morning, Paul. My question is that at the time when you said the capital return of a billion dollars, Comparing to today, certainly second quarter and third quarter looked like it was much stronger than you were expected. So when you're looking at that number, what will be the criteria or consideration for you to raise that number? That's the first question. Maybe that I will wait until you answer that. I will go for the second one.
spk10: Yeah, Paul, this is Rich. Good morning. Look, I think we're Very comfortable that we will achieve that number. At this point, we'd expect to get there no later than the first quarter. Just to put a little more color around that, as Mike mentioned, we did 2.7 million shares in the second quarter. We did another 3 million shares for about $130 million in July. We've got dividends to pay. So we expect that we're running comfortably toward that number. To your point about increasing it, let's see how the market goes here. We're optimistic at this point.
spk07: But which can you share with us that what will be the criteria that you need to hit in order for you guys to say, oh, yeah, I mean, that we can raise that distribution and any kind of matrix that you can share or anything?
spk10: So, Paul, I don't know if I can give you a matrix. I have been doing this a long time. We know how volatile these markets can be. We'd rather speak less and deliver more.
spk07: Okay. And that maybe this is for Tim. The West region margin realization was very good and much stronger than we thought. Just curious that is there any one-off benefit in the quarter or that we can say, oh, mainly it's just because the overall margin is good and you captured that. And if we have a similar margin again, you will capture it again.
spk09: Yeah, Paul, this is Tim. Not a whole lot of one offs. Really, we saw exceptional margins cracks in the Northwest Pacific Northwest as well as in the Rockies. That obviously helps, but this was the first quarter that we had Puget Sound running at full utilization and that helped significantly in the capture. Mike talked about this in the Sinclair synergies. that were able to identify and to capture. That helped in our capture there as well. And then as margins go higher, the RINs contribution or the RVO contribution becomes less in terms of percentage-wise. That helped us in the capture on the west as well. So I don't really see any major one-offs to point out, Paul.
spk07: Okay, great.
spk05: Thank you.
spk03: Your next question comes from the line of Teresa Chen in Barclays. Your line is open.
spk01: Good morning. I wanted to ask first on the midstream strategy from here. So, you know, as we've long spoke about, you're bucking the trend versus what many of your competitors are doing with their sponsored MLTs, choosing to, you know, roll them in over time. And there's been acceleration of this kind of activity over the past year or so. In contrast, today you're talking about increasing unit holders for HEP in 2023. So first part of the question is just an update on your general midstream strategy and what underlies your decision to keep HEP outstanding versus when would it be compelling to roll it in. And then related to the higher unit holder returns, how do you envision this happening? Would it be through distribution increases, buybacks, a special distribution? I'd love to hear more detail here.
spk10: Hey, Teresa, it's Rich. Good morning. So I'd say, look, first, HEP is critically important to HF Sinclair. The ownership of those assets is critical to our refining business. And we've got an outstanding team operating those assets. So we do see opportunities to grow that business both with HF Sinclair and outside of HF Sinclair. To your question about the financial structure really to us that's a corporate finance question. And so far a roll up has not made sense from that perspective. It's probably worth pointing out here that HEP is relatively large relative to HF Sinclair and that affects any sort of per share math you might do. So look we'll continue to monitor that situation and do the best thing to create value for all of our shareholders. Looking to 23 to your question about distribution growth. At this point, I think we would urge increasing the distribution itself. We'll evaluate buybacks. As you know, HEP is not the most liquid stock, so it's not necessarily that we want to reduce the float. It may not be in the best interest of HEP, but if that's a better option, we'll go ahead and do it. But right now, I'd say that's going to take the form of distribution increases.
spk04: I'll add to that, Teresa, and simply that we've put a lot of capital toward external growth via acquisitions. And at this point, incremental capital is to be returned to HF Sinclair shareholders in the near term as compared to buying in a related MLP. All that Rich said in terms of its ownership and the criticality of it is quite true. But in terms of capital allocation, really it goes to HF Sinclair holders first.
spk01: Thank you.
spk03: Your next question comes from the line of Doug Legate. Your line is open.
spk11: Hey, good morning, everyone. Mike, I wonder if you can offer an opinion on the recent restructuring of some of the MLP ownerships we've seen from Phillips 66, from Shell, from PBF. And you're obviously one of the last men standing, so to speak, along with Marathon. What are you thinking in terms of now you've got your balance sheet back to pristine shape, and the relative yields obviously being what they are. How do you think about the logic of continuing that ownership structure?
spk04: Doug, I tried to head that off in my last comment, but let's put it on the table. We took a pause of a dividend for one year. We made two different acquisitions, which we consider to be really high value. And at this point, we intend to pay our shareholders back for their patience and those investments. So that basically says that in the near term, we're most interested in returning capital to HF Sinclair shareholders. What our peers do, as Rich was insinuating, a lot of that probably depends a lot on the relative size of those entities versus the size of the mothership. Take Shell, BP as examples. In our case, it's relatively larger. And we'll do the math, of course. A buy-in would need to be accretive to cash flow and earnings. And for the time being, we're allocating our capital otherwise.
spk11: I know it's, you know, probably too obvious of a question, Mike, but I appreciate your perspective. I guess I don't think anyone's really asked on the macro yet. So I wonder if I could really just get your kind of current views, given that gasoline seemed to have rolled over pretty hard and obviously diesel holding in their spreads are a bit wider. What are you seeing halfway through almost the third quarter? What are you seeing in terms of the trends there? Maybe any insights you can offer as to how your quarter is going so far? And then, of course, the inevitable question on gasoline demand destruction, what are you seeing in your system? And I'll leave it there. Thanks.
spk09: Yeah, Doug, this is Tim. Again, let me start with some of the direct responses to your demand questions, and then I'll let Mike weigh in on more of the macro. We're still seeing strong demand in our regions. Coupled with high utilization, it's still resulting in product inventories being below five-year averages. So that's all very constructive and very positive in the areas we operate. Diesel, in particular, is at or above 2019 demand levels. We feel good about that. Gasoline, strong, specifically in the southwest, but we would say probably within 5%. of our 2019 levels, so we're continuing to see good strength there. I would also mention that on the marketing side, Mike mentioned that at the beginning, we're continuing to see strong demand for our brand. We added 20 retail sites here in the second quarter. We've added more than 50 in progress still as we look to expand the Sinclair brand into some of these new markets. So from a marketing standpoint, we're continuing to see strong pull there as well.
spk04: Thanks, Doug. A little bit more on that. I think that in early July, late June, there was clearly some price elastic demand, right? And I think that the industry saw a little bit of fall off. We don't see anything like the sort of 10% that's implied in the DOE aggregate demand numbers. And so our markets just aren't seeing that kind of behavior. More than that, I think that these products now trade at the rack at $2.50, $2.75 range, and adding excise taxes, retail distribution costs, you're not much above 2021 levels. So expectation is, given the strong economy, the labor numbers that we're seeing, that that price elastic demand probably comes back pretty quickly.
spk11: Guys, I hate to label the point, but do you have an explanation as to why the EIA data is showing what it's showing? Any thoughts on that?
spk04: No, no. We're happy to see it every Wednesday. Thanks, fellas. Appreciate the answer.
spk05: Take care.
spk03: Your next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
spk08: Hey, guys. Good quarter here. Thanks for taking the time. The first question is just on renewable diesel. In a set of strong results, renewable diesel was the outlier. It came in a little bit softer this quarter. So just talk about how you see margins are tracking and the outlook for the rest of the year. And then also, talk about the Blender's tax credit and the extension thereof, because that could support the long-term profitability of the business. Thank you.
spk04: Certainly. You know, the renewable diesel margins and earnings really reflect low throughput as much as anything. Recognize that our Artesia RDU project is just coming on stream now and just in this quarter beginning to gain revenue from its sales. So low throughputs, poor utilization, and relatively high feedstock costs with respect to RBD And I think this is on the heels of the Ukraine sort of disruption in veg oil economies, if you will. But as you know, we've invested in a pretreatment unit. And while we initially bought a lot of RBD to feed our startups, we're progressing toward a diverse feedstock slate, much of which is going through our own PTU. And that will significantly improve our economics. As of today, for example, the DGUM versus RBD spread per gallon is something like 75 cents. So, as you can see, that's a significant uplift in margins. Looking forward, in terms of what we have, we've called out that the third quarter is still a ramp period for our production because Artesia is really very much still in startup and expects to achieve full rate by the end of the quarter, but not through the quarter. So that's going to be a little bit of a headwind in terms of earnings performance. But otherwise, feedstock costs and margins are in our favor here. So we're still very constructive on the investments that we've made. And what I'd say is it's utilization and startup more than anything else that's affected margins. As to BTC, Inflation Reduction Act, yes, that solidifies the margin outlook, certainly through 2024. And thereafter, as you know, it converts to a clean fuels or sort of an LCFS CI-driven contribution in terms of that credit. But that provides some certainty in terms of the producer's margins and makes us all more optimistic. Our initial economics anticipated the BTC expiring at the end of 2022. Now we've got two years of very solid expectations and then a CI-based benefit after that.
spk08: Okay, that makes sense, sir. And the follow-up is just around the crude side of the equation with fewer turnarounds in the back half of the year. It's a good time, and with some widening of both Brent WTI and then also TIWCS, how do you think about the sustainability of those wider differentials, and is that just a reflection of SPR, or is there something underlying in the transport economics that would support the wider spreads?
spk09: Yeah, hi, Neil. It's Tim. Yes, certainly the SPR is impacting the Brent TI spread. I think strong Permian production is also providing very stable volumes coming out from a WTI perspective. But if you look on the Brent side, you've got some uncertainty there. Higher natural gas in Europe certainly driving more demand and making Brent a little bit more scarce. You have the Russian crude embargo that's creating a drive for those Brent barrels. So I think, you know, while we normally think of the transportation basis between Brent and TI in that 3 to 350 range, right now transportation is not setting the spread. We think that spread is being set by the scarcity in the Brent side. And we think, really, if you look at kind of the dynamics that are driving that, it's probably not going to change anytime near near term. So you look at the Ford Strip, you see the Brent TI spread kind of in that $5 to $6 range, and we think that's what's going to happen here over the next couple of years. It's a good time to obviously be long on refining and have additional inland crude refineries in our portfolio.
spk08: And Tim, on WTI, WCS?
spk09: Yeah, on the WCS spread widening out again, you may have noticed that we ran more WCS in the second quarter than we have in previous quarters. That's taking advantage of that spread. We think there's more to be able to take advantage of in the third quarter. You see some of the maintenance that was occurring up in Canada complete, some of the production coming back online and starting to fill out the pipeline takeaway capacity. We think by the end of the year, we're going to start seeing pipelines being allocated again, and we think that's going to put some pressure again on that WCSWTI spread. So we think that's sustainable. Really, as we look at our forecasts, we think that allocation is going to come back here for a while, and we're going to be able to enjoy those spreads. Thank you, guys.
spk03: The next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with Tudor Pickering Holton Company. Your line is open.
spk02: Hey, good morning. Congrats on the result. The marketing profitability was better than we were expecting. Can you talk about the drivers here and how things are progressing in this segment so far in Q3?
spk09: Yeah, Matt, this is Tim. Our new branded marketing segment, as Mike pointed to earlier, is performing better than we expected, and that's all very encouraging. We're seeing a lot of traction on our Sinclair brand. As I mentioned before, we've added 20 retail sites here just in the second quarter alone. We've got another 50 that are in progress here that we think we'll be able to bring in here before the end of the year. Growth targets, we're hoping in that 5% to 7% growth range is what we're looking at and we think can be very reachable. Our strategy is we have several licensed Retail sites, as you guys have seen in our previous disclosures, clearly if we can convert some of those licensed sites into supplied sites, that would be a good place to start, and we are doing that right now. Some of our new markets where our legacy Holly Frontier assets have been, that Southwest region and the P&W region, we're seeing a lot of interest in growing the Sinclair brand there. And then lastly, in our mature markets in the Rockies where we have the Sinclair brand already well-established, we're seeing a lot of incremental pull to continue to grow there as well. So a very exciting time for us, Matthew, and we think that branded business is going to be important for our portfolio in the long term.
spk02: Sounds good. And then could you talk about the geographical end markets for your RD production today? Do you rail all that to California, or have you found other markets that are equally as appealing?
spk04: Yeah, we won't be specific as to quantities, but we're working through the western states as well as Canada and then trying to find best value, but pursuing markets throughout those areas, not just California. Great. Thank you. Yep.
spk03: Our next question comes from the line of Jason Gableman with Cohen. Your line is open.
spk05: Hey, morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First, just maybe as we think about the buyback moving forward, it'd be helpful just if you could remind us your targets for the balance sheet in terms of both debt and cash levels. and maybe a couple other modeling-related questions. What's your SGA on a go-forward basis? And then is this quarter's West Refining Region OPEX indicative of what you expect it to be on a go-forward basis? Thanks.
spk10: Hey, Jason. It's Rich. So with respect to the balance sheet and the repurchase, Let's start from a balance sheet debt perspective. We're very committed to our investment grade rating. We've been guided to sort of three times debt to EBITDA and a trough for two times mid-cycle. That's the metric we've got to look at, and that's consolidated leverage. You'll note we're there, we're inside of that right now, so we've got capacity. So there's no need to preserve cash to repurchase or repay debt at this point. We continue to look at $500 million as our sort of minimum or target cash balance. We've got plenty of dry powder, if you will, for share repurchase at this point. SG&I, I think if you make the appropriate adjustments to 2Q for M&A costs that we called out here, it's a good run rate. And with respect to the West operating expenses, I think this quarter is a good run rate. Great, thanks. A big flywheel there.
spk09: Yeah, I think a couple of things to call out on the West to add to Rich's comments. You know, natural gas is just continues to be elevated. We've got some bonus accrual impacts as well, but we did have some planned maintenance at Pagesound and at Rawlins that, you know, may be a little bit higher than normal. So we're looking to bring that down. looking forward.
spk05: Okay. Understood. Any way to quantify that for the quarter?
spk10: No. No, it's not. Those are puts and takes, to be honest, so I don't think it's going to be a big driver at the end of the day. Natural gas, again, being the one thing that we can't forecast that could really move that number around.
spk05: Got it. And then my other question, just on the renewable diesel business. As we think about the ramp up, you mentioned you're running RVD now just in the early portion of the production of the platform. But as you get the pre-treatment unit up, how much RVD do you expect to run once this platform is fully up and running in 4Q? Thanks.
spk04: Yeah, that'll be obviously dependent on economics. I'd say less than half or around half, depending on RBD versus DGAMS and other economics.
spk10: So Jason, maybe to add some math there, our pretreatment capacity, kind of proform of the transaction and everything, will be call it 50 plus percent of our renewable diesel production. And then we do have the ability to run some other feeds straight into the units as well. So we've got the flexibility to run 60 plus percent non-RBD. As Mike mentioned, right, this is all going to be economics driven at the end of the day, though.
spk05: Okay, great. Thanks for the answers.
spk03: Your next question comes from the line of Paul Chang, Scotiabank. Your line is open.
spk07: Hey, guys. Thank you. Just two quick follow-up. Maybe, Tim, can you help us understand the dynamic in the marketing, gross margin, $0.07 per gallon in this quarter. I mean, how much is the fluctuation or seasonality in that business? Or that is pretty steady. So trying to have a better understanding on that.
spk09: Yeah, Paul, the gross margin is $0.07, higher than what we had guided to when we originally put out the Sinclair proformas. We're pleased with that. We're seeing, again, strength in branded businesses. As you see higher gasoline prices and higher demand, I think we are seeing a widening of that spread between branded and unbranded. I don't know yet. We don't have enough experience to know if that's going to be sustainable or not, but we think it's real, and we've seen it, and we continue to look for that strength here in the third quarter.
spk07: Maybe then let me ask in another way. In the contract that you signed with the job post, those is sort of more or less a fixed margin or that is a rack price plus whatever is the additional margin. Trying to understand that how the pricing on those contracts are.
spk09: Yeah, no, we don't sign up for any fixed prices. there, Paul. It's all really based on a posted price, and that's how we work with the jobbers on that.
spk07: I think. And I'm just curious that maybe this is for Mike. I think in the past you have said that you have no interest getting into the retail business that you own the store directly and operate it. Any change in that thought now that you have the brand marketing
spk04: No, there is no change in that thought, Paul. That's a very different skill set, staffing level. We intend to be branded wholesalers. We want to manage the brand. We want to add volume to that distribution channel and support those retailers with a strong branded presence. But that's our contribution.
spk07: All right. Thank you.
spk04: Yep.
spk03: Your next question comes from the line of John Royal with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.
spk13: hey good morning guys thanks for taking my question um most of mine have been asked i just had one um you just looking at your mid-cycle um adjusted ebitda guidance you have a billion three five um for refining and just wondering um you know i know the the synergies are pointed uh a bit upwards from from what you had guided there but just generally anything about this environment that you think is sticky where maybe that 1.35 number is biased upwards?
spk10: Hey, John, it's Rich. I'd say the one thing that we'd point to is you'll notice in the build-up to that number, we get there by taking Gulf Coast cracks, right, adding crude differentials, adding product differentials. I'd say we probably feel better about the product differentials in our markets structurally than is reflected there. So we do think there's probably some upside there. From that perspective, the Rockies in particular, there's a market where you've got very good demographics and economic growth, and you've got very constrained supply just due to the geography itself. There's really not much opportunity to substitute petroleum fuels there. So that's a place that we do see upside to that mid-cycle buildup. Great. Thanks very much.
spk03: There are no further questions at this time. Craig, I turn the call back over to you.
spk12: Thanks, everyone. We appreciate you taking the time to join us on today's call. If you have any follow-up questions, as always, reach out to Investor Relations. Otherwise, we look forward to sharing our third quarter results with you in November.
spk03: Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful
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