HF Sinclair Corporation

Well, today is Tim Goh, Chief Executive Officer of HF Sinclair. He is joined by Atanas Adonisov, Chief Financial Officer, Steve Ledbetter, EVP of Commercial, Valerie Pompa, EVP of Operations, and Matt Joyce, SVP of Lubricants and Specialities. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. If you would like to ask a question at that time, please press star one on your touch tone phone. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing the pound key. If you should require operator assistance, please press star zero. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow up. Additionally, we ask that you pick up your handset to allow optimal sound quality. Please note, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Craig Beery, Vice President, Investor Relations. Craig, you may begin.

Thank you, Gavin. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to HF Sinclair Corporation's fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. This morning, we issued a press release announcing results for the quarter ending December 31st, 2023. If you would like a copy of the earnings press release, you may find it on our website at hfsinclair.com. Before we proceed with remarks, please note the safe harbor disclosure statement in today's press release. In summary, it says statements made regarding management expectations, judgments, or predictions are forward-looking statements. These statements are intended to be covered under the safe harbor provisions of federal security laws. There are many factors that could cause results to differ from expectations, including those noted in our SEC filing. The call also may include discussion of non-GAAP measures. Please see the earnings press release for reconciliations to GAAP financial measures. Also, please note any time-sensitive information provided on today's call may no longer be accurate at the time of any webcast replay or rereading of the transcript. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

Good morning, everyone. When I stepped into the CEO role last year, I laid out three priorities. One, to drive operational excellence, including improved reliability. Two, to optimize and integrate our portfolio of new businesses and three, to generate strong cash flows to advance our cash return strategy. I'm very pleased to report the significant progress our team has executed against these goals during the year. First, in 2023, we delivered record-best process safety performance across our refining portfolio and successfully completed heavy maintenance turnarounds at all of our refineries during the year on schedule and on budget. as we took another step towards improving reliability across our portfolio. Second, we closed the transaction to buy in our HEP business in the fourth quarter and furthered our efforts to integrate and optimize our asset base. In addition, we delivered growth in our marketing segment volumes and site count and delivered strong lubricants and specialties segment earnings despite the weakening of base oil cracks in 2023. Third, during the year, we also returned over $1.3 billion in cash to shareholders through share with purchases and dividends, delivering on our cash return commitment to shareholders. With good momentum across our businesses, we believe we are well positioned to continue creating compelling value for our shareholders in 2024. Now let's turn to our segment highlights. In refining for the full year 2023, We set annual records at our PARCO refinery in both heavy crude runs and total throughput. We also executed planned turnaround work at all of our refineries on schedule and on budget. Improved turnaround execution allowed us to do all the work on our equipment we intended and is essential to our strategy of driving reliability improvements in 2024 and throughout the turnaround cycle. In renewables in the fourth quarter, we achieved our normalized run rate utilization for our renewables facilities and delivered record volumes at our pretreatment unit in Artesia. We also received our new CI pathways, which we believe will benefit our margin capture opportunity going forward. For 2024, we plan to continue to optimize the operation of our renewables assets through improved reliability and improved commercial efforts. The marketing segment in 2023 delivered growth in gasoline and diesel branded sales volumes, as well as branded site count compared to 2022, which includes our Sinclair branded wholesale business for the period after March 14th, 2022. We are pleased with the value that the Tyno brand brings to our portfolio, and we remain focused on increasing the number of branded sites and sales volumes in 2024. In lubricants and specialties, Despite lower base oil margins in 2023, we performed well above our mid-cycle guidance and reported annual EBITDA of $346 million. Our results in 2023 reflect our continued efforts to optimize the feedstock integration and sales mix across our finished products portfolio, and we look to build upon this strategy in 2024 to further enhance the value of our lubricants and specialties business. In midstream, We closed on the acquisition of Holley Energy Partners on December 1st, 2023, along with the associated exchange of the outstanding HCP bonds for new HF Sinclair bonds. This acquisition strengthens our business as we simplified our corporate structure and reduced costs as a combined company, further supporting the integration and optimization efforts across our assets. Going forward, our midstream operation will continue to be reported as a separate standalone segment in our financials. In the fourth quarter, we returned $248 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. For the full year 2023, we returned over $1.3 billion in cash to shareholders representing an annual cash return of 12% and payout ratio of 74%. This does not include the additional $268 million in cash paid to HEP unit holders in the HEP transaction. Since the closing of the Sinclair acquisition on March 14, 2022, we have returned approximately $3 billion in cash to shareholders, which represents 27% of our market cap as of December 31, 2023. As of February 9th, 2024, we have $591 million remaining on our current share repurchase authorization, and we remain fully committed to our long-term cash return strategy and long-term payout ratio while maintaining a strong balance sheet and investment-grade credit rating. We also announced on February 14th, 2024, that our Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of 50 cents per share, an increase of 5 cents over the previous dividend, payable on March 5, 2024, to holders of record on February 26, 2024. The 11% dividend increase reflects our Board's commitment to returning excess cash to shareholders. Looking ahead, we remain focused on further executing our corporate strategy to maximize shareholder value. We believe the strength and diversification of our new asset base coupled with our disciplined approach to capital allocation, will position us well for success.

With that, let me turn the call over to Atlas. Thank you, Tim, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin by reviewing HF Sinclair's financial highlights. Today, we reported fourth quarter net loss attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders of $62 million, or negative 34 cents per diluted share. These results reflect special items that collectively decreased net income by $227 million. Excluding these items, adjusted net income for the fourth quarter was $165 million, or negative 87 cents per diluted share, compared to adjusted net income of $598 million, or $2.97 per diluted share, for the same period in 2022. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $428 million compared to $1 billion in the fourth quarter of 22. In our refining segment, fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $278 million, which excludes the $221 million lower cost or market inventory valuation charge. This compares to $864 million of refining segment EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 22. This decrease was primarily driven by lower refinery gross margins in both the West and MidCon regions, which resulted in lower refining segment earnings in the quarter. Crude oil charge averaged 614,000 barrels per day for the fourth quarter, compared to 628,000 barrels per day for the fourth quarter of 22. In our renewables segment, we reported adjusted EBITDA of negative $3 million for the fourth quarter compared to negative $7 million for the fourth quarter of 22. Improved operations in the period were offset by weakening RINs and LCFS credit prices. Total sales volumes were 63 million gallons for the fourth quarter as compared to 54 million gallons for the fourth quarter of 22. Our marketing segment reported EBITDA of 9 million for the fourth quarter compared to 23 million for the fourth quarter of 22. Total branded volume sales were 350 million gallons, representing six cents per gallon margin. Lubricants and specialty segments reported EBITDA of 58 million for the fourth quarter, compared to EBITDA of 67 million for the fourth quarter of 22. This decrease was largely driven by a 30 million FIFO charge from consumption of high-priced feedstock inventory in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to a $7 million FIPO charge in the fourth quarter of 2022. Our midstream segment reported EBITDA of $105 million in the fourth quarter compared to $90 million in the same period of last year. This increase was driven by higher revenues from our pipelines, terminals, and loading racks. Net cash provided by operations totaled $231 million, which includes $85 million of turnaround spend in the quarter. HF Sinclair's capital expenditures totaled $124 million for the fourth quarter. For the full year of 2023, our total capital expenditures were $941 million, which includes $556 million in turnarounds. Our full year capital spend came in under budget due to the improved execution of our planned maintenance activities. As of December 31st, 2023, HS Sinclair's total liquidity stood at approximately $3.7 billion, which includes a cash balance of $1.4 billion, our undrawn $1.65 billion unsecured credit facility, and $744 million availability on the HUP credit facility. During the year, we reduced our debt by $520 million to the repayment of our 2.625% senior notes at maturity in October, and by paying down a portion of our outstanding HEP revolver. As of December 31st, we have 2.8 billion of debt outstanding with a debt-to-cap ratio of 21%, a net debt-to-cap ratio of 11%. Let's go through some guidance items. With respect to capital spending for full year 2024, We expect to spend $235 million in refining, $5 million in renewables, $40 million in lubricants and specialties, $10 million in marketing, $30 million in midstream, $65 million in corporate, and $415 million for turnarounds and catalysts. In addition, we expect to spend $75 million in growth capital investments across our business segments. For the first quarter of 2024, we expect to run between 585,000 to 615,000 barrels per day of crude oil in our refining segment, and we have a planned turnaround scheduled at our Puget Sound refinery during the period. We're now ready to take some questions from the audience. Operator?

The floor is now open for questions. At this time, if you have questions or comments, please press star one on your touch-tone phone. We ask that you please limit it to one question and one follow-up. If you have additional questions, we welcome you to rejoin the queue. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing the pound key. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs & Co. Your line is open.

Yeah, thank you so much, team. One macro question and one micro question. I guess the macro question would be just your perspective on the mid-con setup as we go from here to the summer. Obviously, very weak January, stronger February with some disruptions from your competitors. But I think we're getting a lot of investor questions about how you guys see the world as we go into the summer for both diesel and gasoline in the mid-con setup.

Yeah, good morning, Neal. Let me ask Steve to comment a little bit on the MidCon outlook, and then I'll come back and provide a little bit more macro on top of that.

Hey, Neal, this is Steve. Thanks for the question. MidCon, as you articulated, we did see demand patterns fall off a little earlier in the quarter. We did see inventories rise to kind of the five-year range, and that stayed into Q1. It's starting to come back. We're seeing some support. in the structure view there, but we think this is cyclical, and we see a supportive margin structure in the mid-con, particularly heading into the driving season. We're starting to see that coming off the, as we progress through the quarter here in February.

And I'll just jump on top of that, Neal. You know, we do believe that MidCon seasonality is what we were seeing in the December-January timeframe. We see it every year. In fact, I think we typically talk about it at this call because MidCon inventories typically grow during this timeframe. Of course, since the BP widening downtime, inventories have drawn significantly and MidCon cracks have improved significantly. If you look at the more of a step-back macro perspective, Neil, we still believe we are in a supply-constrained market. We believe that will continue here through at least 2024. I mean, if you look at, again, demand, we think demand overall is 5 to 6 percent above 2019 levels, whereas supply versus 2019 is significantly constrained, at least a million barrels a day, as you know. And the utilization requirement in order to make up for that additional demand is just higher than what this industry has been able to demonstrate in the past. And so we still think, you know, the BP widening issue is a good example of that. We still think that the expectations on industry utilization are higher than what the industry is able to produce. And so as a result, we're going to remain in the supply-constrained environment through the rest of 2024. There's not a lot of incentive to put more capital into refining capacity, just given the current policies of this country. And so we still believe that liquid transportation fuels in general is bullish and refining margins in particular. We're still very bullish, especially with our portfolio.

Yeah. Thanks to you both. And then the follow-up is on renewable diesel. Tim, you and I have talked a lot about this business and getting it back to a path to profitability. How do you see the trajectory from here and how many of the issues continue to be around hydrogen versus something which is more market-driven and just in general the path towards normalized profitability at RD?

Neil, let me ask you again to jump in and then I can comment on top of that.

Yeah, I think we're learning and doing better at this business overall. If you look at Q4, financial performance was challenged, but we did demonstrate good progress in facility utilization. We eclipsed north of 70% across the quarter and in December hit a utilization of close to 85%. That includes a turnaround or a cap change at Artesia. We had some records at Artesia, Cheyenne, as well as the PTU, where we think that's an advantage for us in terms of taking the low CI feedstocks and putting them into our value chain. We did have a negative earnings impact associated with working through some high-priced inventory, but freed up a considerable amount of cash on the balance sheet. So that's kind of the Q4 picture. If I think about looking forward, we do see margin softness in 24. The RD supply is outpacing the mandates and the RFS and the LCFS programs. There's some additional close to 90,000 barrels a day of nameplate capacity coming on. So all those things create a bit of a structural margin impact. We have seen feedstock prices decline, but at a slower pace than the incentive values that are supporting them. And we don't see anything structurally that the RVO and the CARB proposed changes will not impact into 2025. So we're laser-focused on facility utilization at an economic clip, OPEX catalyst utilization and optimization, and then putting our feedstock strategy to work, driving low-CI feeds, executing and getting our pathways approved, and then finding the most advantaged markets for our fuel. So we do see some structure softness in the forward run, but we feel like we're in a good place to take advantage of the market when it's there for us.

And Neil, I'll just say, I mean, we feel very good about the operating performance of our renewable diesel business in the fourth quarter achieved 71% utilization. The feedstock price lag that Steve mentioned went against us and obviously impacted our overall profitability, but we believe we've got a good platform to spring into 2024 with. You know, you look at obviously the LCFS and the RINs prices being significantly lower than what our project basis was when we first launched our business. We do believe that over time, for example, the LCFS is going to recover and it's going to show some improved project margins again. But things like, you know, you saw that New Mexico just passed their own LCFS. We know that as other programs continue to jump into the LCFS world, that it's going to continue to tighten those LCFS credits and the RINs credits as well. And so we believe that, for example, in the New Mexico case, that our facilities are damaged. We have our largest renewable diesel facility in New Mexico. The transportation savings alone are going to be significant boosts to our improvements. And so we're feeling positive about our future as we get our operating performance under our belt.

Thanks, Tim.

Our next question comes from Paul Ching at Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Hey, guys. Good morning. Maybe that this is for Tim. You have rolled up HEP. Can you give us some example with that? How does it impact your operation? I mean, is there any synergy? Or is it just simply that you are reducing some GNA because you don't have to file the regulatory documents the data to the government as a separate entity? That's the first question. And maybe after that, then I ask my second question.

Okay, Paul, yeah, thanks for the question. I'll let Agnes provide a few comments on HEP, and then I'll mention a few things as well.

Yeah, Paul, thanks for your question. HEP has provided us with a number of benefits. When we look at on the operational and commercial side, we've seen a meaningful opportunity for simplifying our business. Things like not having to negotiate intercompany contracts, for example, is something that's meaningfully helpful to us. Another point to bring up is not having to worry about qualified versus non-qualified income because we don't have the MLP. anymore integrating some of our back office functions actually does bring a benefit and efficiency when it comes to how we deal on the commercial side as well so that's one thing and the second thing is just on a pure from a pure economic point of view we've been extremely pleased with how things have gone as you can see from the operating performance in the business in the fourth quarter that just goes on to vindicate our view that this transaction has provided meaningful cash flow accretion and frankly, better EPS accretion than what we had hoped in the beginning.

Yeah, Paul, and I would just say on top of what Agnes just mentioned, we are very pleased with the HSP transaction. We do think it's turning out even better than what we saw in our planning economics. And that's really a basis for the dividend increase that we just announced last week. We believe that not only is it EPS accretive, but it's very much cash flow accretive. We've seen maybe a little better than what we thought originally, and we're passing that on to our shareholders through the dividend increase.

Tina and Ella, is there a number you can share in terms of the operational synergy benefit to quantify it and how long you think you will be able to achieve it?

Paul, no, we haven't put a number out on there. When we first talked, we limited our discussions to some of the very obvious and very hard synergies associated with back office consolidation, two public companies into one. We are seeing synergies for sure out there, but we're not ready to talk about it out there.

Okay. The second question is on the longer term. I know you are still in the journey trying to get your sale up to the operating standard you want and your utilization rate over time is going to be higher. And I think at that point, you're saying that your crew unit run could be at 640 on a sustainable basis and you could be an operating cost at 650 per barrel. Can you help with that to maybe bridge the gap between where you are on your unit cost today? On your mid-con, you are around in the $6,650. In your west, you are at about $9.50 to $10. So average for the company is like $8.50 to $9. Even if we assume a higher throughput and There's no associate cost with the higher throughput. We can't get close to 650. So what are the steps or initiatives that we should expect that would lead to that unit cost come down that much?

Yeah, Paul, we've taken a big step forward, as you've mentioned, in reliability. I think Val and her team have really done really done a great job in progressing that effort. We've talked earlier about the turnarounds and how that's setting us up for success. We believe reliability is the biggest knob we have to turn on op costs and op costs per barrel because it affects both the numerator and the denominator. I'll let Val talk about some more examples of things that we're working on to improve our op ex per barrel.

sure um you know so as we've talked before our focus is on so the gap that you mentioned is really about focusing on two things reliability and efficient delivery of our work and so we're working both of those and um you know turnaround's a big step in reliability as we get our turnaround work processes the right scope in every turnaround our reliability improves and not just the barrels when When we're running more throughput, we're spending fewer dollars. And so that's the main focus and the connection with reliability. And then secondarily to that is improvement of how we deliver the products, how we work, how we do work execution, whether it be maintenance, what suppliers we use. So there are a lot of initiatives around our work execution strategies, leveraging technology, and then better workflow processes integrated across all of our businesses.

Paul, what I would tell you is when we put that 650 number out there, it was before we expanded our portfolio with both Puget Sound and with the Sinclair assets, and before HEP for that. So now that we've got about a year under our belt, we are certainly looking putting our long-term plans together and trying to put kind of a better outlook on what we think we're going to be able to accomplish here in the near term. Remember, these are long-term cycles. Reliability, as I mentioned, is measured in turnaround cycles, not in years. But we're not prepared to say anything different today, but probably we'll be in a position to do something later this year.

Okay, we do. Thank you.

Your next question comes from Leonard Douglas of Bank of America. Your line is open.

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Tim, there's a lot of – I'm going to follow Neil Mehta's example here, not one macro and one company specific. But my company specific is heavy oil runs or advantage crude runs, I guess, is a way to put it. There's a lot of things changing, obviously, in Canada. TMX supposedly line fill. We'll see what happens to spreads as a consequence. But how are you thinking about the appropriate crude slate going forward for your business in light of what is potentially a very significant change in Canadian spreads in the first time in 20 years?

Hey, Doug, this is Steve. I'll take that one. Yeah, we're watching the TMX situation very closely. As you know, we expect the announcement for full line fill and coming online sometime late Q1, more likely Q2. As we think about that, we clearly will run the most advantaged crude. Our heavy crude value chain has provided a significant advantage for us. We think that the dips will continue to remain wide through Q1 and then compress somewhat in Q2. And when you think about our Puget Sound refinery, we think that proximity to the dock is going to allow us to take advantage of the optimal crude slate with more barrels over the water. I'll remind you that we have the ability to take and run heavy and sour, and we have ample dock capacity. So we will look to optimize that as well. And then the flexibility of our kits. We're connected to many hubs, and we have the flexibility of the kit to take multiple grades to optimize our value chain. But by default, we believe that the heavy oil value chain is a key element of our portfolio moving forward, and we'll continue to drive that to optimize the value chain.

Yeah, Doug, I would just say crude flexibility and optionality continues to be an advantage for us, not just at the Puget Sound Refinery, but also at our El Dorado Refinery. With direct access to Cushing, we've got the ability to arb whatever the best crude slate is for that refinery. From a bigger picture perspective, I just want to remind folks that No, the Alberta crude production continues to increase. And I think even November, December, they set annual crude production records or monthly crude production records during that time frame. Every month, every quarter that TMX delays is a month or quarter closer to when the Canadian crude production will once again outpace the TMX takeaway capacity. So we believe that period is gonna be fairly short. maybe two years, something in that time frame, to when takeaway capacity will again be constrained and we'll be back into this advantage crude situation on the heavy crude. So we think this is just a short-term position until the Canadian crude production increases again.

Great stuff. We're all watching to try and figure out what happened, so I appreciate you guys helping us navigate that. My housekeeping question, if you don't mind, is probably to Thomas. The change in cash in the quarter, obviously the buy-in of HEP, but I'm just wondering if you can walk us through any other issues, because it looks like tax was light, interest was light, and you still had a big draw in cash. Any help you can give us there, and I'll leave it at that. Thank you.

Yeah. When we look at kind of the draw in cash, you know, it's kind of the big The big-ticket items is the HEP buy-in, obviously, almost $270 million on that. We paid incrementally on the revolver as well. Obviously, the stock buyback that we did for the quarter and the dividend. On the tax side, from a cash perspective, We benefited from the depreciation, the bonus depreciation that we got from closing the HEP transaction. That was substantial. And in terms of the rest of it, when you look at working capital, it was essentially flat. Once you took into account the payment of the HEP bonds, which is about $308 million.

And Doug, don't forget, we had some bonds. I'm sorry. It's $308 million that we paid down in bonds.

And those are our bonds, dino bonds, not HEP bonds. I want to correct myself.

Yeah, I think the bonus, the depreciation help on the tax, I think, closes the gap for us. So that's really helpful, guys. Thanks very much indeed. Sure. Thank you.

Your next question comes from Manav Gupta from UBS. Your line is open.

Hi, I wanted to ask about the outlook for the Lubes business as we're going to 2024. And a quick clarification also there, sometimes you report adjusted EBITDA, sometimes for some segments you don't. It looks like the reported EBITDA was 57 for the Lubes, but there was a 30 million FIFO inventory chart, so the actual number was closer to 87, if you could clarify that.

Yeah, let me ask Matt. Matt, as you know, is our leader for our business. Let's have him comment first.

Thanks, Manav. It's Matt here. Just speaking to the FIFO impact on the quarter, you know, base oils and feed costs shifted lower throughout the quarter. And as a result, we had consumed older and more expensive inventory, which drove our FIFO number up to that $30 million. range. We finished excluding FIFO. You're absolutely right. It was actually a really robust quarter. But including FIFO, we saw that 58 range. It's 57.7, I think, was the final number. But when we look at what's driving it, the back half of the quarter, really, we saw a offtake and demand across the portfolio. And that was really driven by many of the customers destocking in anticipation of falling prices and not replenishing their inventories. We've seen that hangover kind of come through to the first month of the first quarter of 24, but we're starting to see volumes come back now. So that was That was the primary driver there. Of course, some of our end-use markets are still a bit sluggish. The European market is still in a bit of trying to find its feet with regards to the market environment that we provide over there. But despite all of that, the team did a tremendous job of really working to execute the strategy. We finished the year by placing more baseball in captive product lines than we ever have. We also, I mentioned it in prior quarterly earnings about digital tools that we've instituted that give us better transparency to our costs, and we're driving our product lines to a more profitable position as a result. And of course, we're continuing to do that operational housekeeping. And aside from reliability and quality and EHS, we're focused on gaining efficiencies by simplifying processes and getting after complexity reduction. Put those together and you've got a really healthy business that performed well throughout the quarter.

So Manav, that $30 million of FIFO impact, it is our accounting system. So we don't actually adjust out for that. Our adjusted EBITDA is still in that $58 million range that we talked about. But we like to help people understand what the FIFO impact is. because that is more representative of how the underlying business is performing. So we just want to help people understand that. FIFO, in the end, evens out over time. And so we believe we'll get that back here as prices continue to increase here in 2024. They'll even out over time as well. We're very bullish on the business. We think 2024 will continue to be good years for us, despite base oil margins decreasing. We saw that phenomenon all last year, and yet Matt and his team have been able to deliver outsized results, and we don't expect anything different this year.

The quick follow-up here, Tim, is you and the team have indicated that over a period of time, you would like to be the highest gross margin refiner. So in a way, reporting the highest capture. You have made good progress over it. Help us understand what more steps are you looking to take, whether it's commercial or reliability, to help you get to your goal of being the number one gross margin refiner in the U.S.

Thanks, Manav. That absolutely is one of our goals, and we're well on the way to doing that. Pleased with some of the things that we've put into place. We take advantage of not only our kit, but the markets that we're in. We believe our markets are advantaged. But things that we're doing to drive capture include pushing the distillate production, taking a stronger approach on jet. We're taking a path at increased premium production. We're going to take advantage of our late and crude advantages and taking that heavy oil value chain. And I'll remind you that our approach is not only in the acquisition cost of the light and heavy differential, but also what we do with some of the finishing products, and our asphalt business is performing well, we look to do those things across all of our value chains right through the business. So we'll continue to look to optimize and focus on where we can high-grade the molecule and take it to the markets that we see best fit in our advantaged geographies.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from Matthew Blair from TPH. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning. I had a few questions about the impact that this planned turnaround at Puget Sound might have on your Q1 results. First, are you still running about 40% Syncrude at Puget Sound? And if so, second, do you think that you'll still be able to capture the benefits of these wider Syncrude diffs in Q1, given that the turnaround is on your downstream units like the FCC and the ALKEY?

Yeah, Matt, this is Tim.

We run a lot of Canadian crude. It's not all syncrude. Some of it's heavy crude as well. And those are advantage crude barrels that we take in. We'll still be able to do quite a bit of that even during the Puget Sound turnaround. So we blend that to basically mimic an ANS barrel, and that, we believe, is still going to be available. And you brought up a good point. We talk a lot about heavy Canadian diffs and how we were able to take advantage of that. The syncrude differential has really been very strong, as you've pointed out, and we're able to take full advantage of that at Puget Sound.

Sounds good. And then could you talk about your outlook for your tax rate in 2024? I think your long-term guidance is roughly 19% to 21%. Does that still hold? And then is there anything changing on your deferred taxes? I guess maybe in regards to the bonus depreciation, given that HEP is now in the fold?

Yes, this is Atnas. With respect to our, you know, tax rate, I'm now in 21 to 22% as a planned tax rate. And with respect to deferred taxes, yes, the bonus depreciation does benefit deferred tax. The largest impact was in the fourth quarter of 2023, but we'll have some impact on 2024 as well.

Sounds good. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of John Royal from J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Can you speak to – you've spoken in the past on some incremental synergies that you think are out there after hitting your original target for Sinclair. Is there any update on those, and should we expect to see some progress there in 2024, or is that a longer-term initiative?

John, thanks for your question. This is Atlas. With respect to – forgive me – with respect to our synergies, we We continue to optimize and integrate our portfolio, and we're capturing additional synergies. For example, in our lubricants, in Sinclair itself, through continual integration, both in terms of systems, backups that we've already realized, continuing to capture incremental value across the value chain. But we're also looking at synergies in our existing systems. segments such as lubricants, for example, where, to Matt's point, we're continuing to integrate our base oils portfolio in finished and specialties. Through some of the systems upgrades on the IT side, we're able to automate processes and optimize resources. For example, procurement is a good example. In HEP, as we said earlier, beyond the synergies related to having two public companies, streamlining processes and systems. And so these are the types of value-enhancing synergies that we're continuing to go after this year. With respect to a specific number, we're not prepared to give one yet. But I'd say we'll probably be able to provide more clarity as we go further into 2024. Yeah, and I would just...

Add on top of that, John, that we had good capture in the west in the fourth quarter, and I think that continues to reflect some of the additional synergies and some of the additional improvements that we're able to find just quarter over quarter. And as you continue to watch that capture, I think you guys will continue to see that reflecting the opportunities that we're finding in capturing.

Great. Thank you. And then the next one's, I think, for Agnes. Can you talk about returns to shareholders into this year? Should we think about just the 50% payout target or any reason it could be more or less? And then in terms of the form of the buyback, maybe you can also speak to sales from the Sinclairs versus open market purchases and any expectations there.

Sure. Thank you for your question. With respect to shareholder return expectations for 2024, First of all, again, as well, we want to reiterate that we're 100% committed to our capital return strategy to our shareholders. We have the 50% payout ratio, long-term payout ratio as our target, but Our view is that 2024 is another above mid-cycle year, and to the extent that this dynamic prevails, we're not shy to exceed that. As you can see, last year we're at 74% payout ratio, and we will remain consistent in our diligence to keep returning excess cash to our shareholders. With respect to the form of the buyback, again, returning cash to shareholders through buyback and dividends is top priority, open to both market and REH goal purchases, and we have done both, and as we've demonstrated, and that dynamic will continue this year.

Yeah, John, and I'll just add again, the dividend increase that we announced last week just continued commitment to our goal of shareholder returns and increasing shareholder returns, so that's contributing to that. Look, we said last year that We can't speak for the REH Co family that owns Sitton Clear, but they put out in their 13D that their preference would be to continue to sell shares directly to the company when they have a desire to do so. Our preference is to buy those shares directly from them. And so as long as that continues to be an opportunity for us in 2024, we're going to take full advantage of it on both sides to continue to do that. We do think, as I mentioned before, we're bullish on 2024. We think it's going to be above mid-cycle. We think that the seasonality is starting to turn, as we talked about, not just on the mid-con, but we've seen inventories and cracks recovering in the Rockies as well. And that's consistent with what our overall view is and what the market's going to be. We think 2024 is going to be another good year for us and going to allow us to return excess cash to our shareholders like we have in the last few years.

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Joe Licious of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. So, I'd like to just go back to the macro first. I was hoping you'd just highlight what demand trends you're seeing within your system across both gasoline and diesel, and then any differences you're seeing in the West versus the mid-con would be great.

Yeah, Joe. Hi, this is Steve. I'll take that one. So, in general, you know, as we talked about earlier, I think demand was softer, both gas and diesel, for Q4 versus the same quarter of 2022. but also higher than pre-COVID levels in 2019. Specifically on the mid-con, you know, it was a little bit more impacted negatively for the same quarter versus both in gas and diesel versus the West. Overall, I think we're seeing that the demand picture is becoming more supportive. We think this is mainly seasonality, and we're seeing improvements both in inventories, demand, And then associated margin structure, looking forward into Q1, and as Tim already articulated, structurally, we see it balanced and above mid-cycle for 2024.

We saw, Joe, that in the mid-con, I know a lot of people were watching that. You know, the very, very cold weather that came through basically in the early January timeframe really took a bite out of demand even further than what seasonality would typically project. And again, I think over time, especially with the BP whiting outage right now, those inventories and those balances are being restored right now.

Great. Thanks for that. And then I wanted to just hit on the throughput guidance. I know you gave the first quarter guide, but I just want to get your thoughts on the path towards the 640,000 barrel per day target throughput is where we are in that right now. Thank you.

Yeah, maybe I'll start, and then Val can chime in on our forward look. You know, our guidance that we gave was 585 to 615, and that includes the turnaround at Puget, and then it reflects, you know, slightly lower or actually quite a bit lower mid-con cracks earlier in the quarter, and that impacted our economic run. We're laser focused on positioning the fleet for a strong Q2 and into the driving season for the rest of the year.

Yeah, and I'll just go back to our reliability focus. So we've focused over the last couple of years really on, we talked earlier about PARCO, Our Parco facility achieved record crew runs this past quarter and we're continuing to see improvements in their reliability and improvements at those facilities. Navajo, same story. And so we're really, you know, the path to 640 is reliable operation and a steady focus on stable runs over time and optimizing our turnaround intervals. That's going to yield a 640 cycle time.

Great. Thank you all. I appreciate it.

Your next question comes line of Jason Doberman from TD Con. Your line is open.

Yeah. Hey, morning. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is on asset sales and In the past, you've discussed an interest in exploring selling the lubricants business as performance has kind of straightened out there. Do you just discuss where you're on that journey and kind of maybe how the overall market for lubricants is for M&A at the current moment?

Yeah, Jason, let me take a shot at that. We're still very bullish on our lubes business. In fact, you know, we've just... put in the books a third year of really strong earnings from that business. And again, we think 2024 is shaping up to be another good year for us. We still believe that the business is undervalued. We believe that it has a higher multiple than what the investors are giving us credit for. But as we put in these additional years of actuals in the books. We're hoping that the market will give us credit for that going forward. So nothing has changed there. The chemicals market in general, as you're kind of alluding to, is at the lower part of their cycle. And so the market itself is not the best market right now from a chemical standpoint. And so what we've always said is we're going to look at this, but it's not a short-term thing. It's really more of a midterm thing. the next two or three years. There's nothing changed there as well. So it's still something that we're very interested in and looking at, but we want to give the market a chance to show that full value in our own stock price before we go out and and do anything different. We also want to, you know, as Matt talked about earlier, we've got a lot of opportunities to improve the business. We still think there's a lot more meat on that bone, and we're continuing to drive forward structural improvements to our lubes business as well. So, Jason, nothing new to update, basically, but to say everything's still on course.

Got it. Thanks. And my follow-up is just on the Rockies. And I think there's another product pipeline expected to start up before summer driving season. Is that correct? And how do you view kind of that market in the summer and moving forward? There were obviously a couple of very strong years on product pricing with less refinery capacity in that region, but you have some coming back. So just general thoughts on maybe – Where do you expect that market to price relative to where it was prior to COVID? Thanks.

Yeah, I'll take that one. This is Steve. So we're watching that product pipeline startup. I think you're referring to the one that goes up into Grand Junction. And I think the premise there associated with that is, you know, that market gets tight and it gets long very quickly based on refinery demand. supply issues or runs. And so I think they would be looking to take advantage of that. Our view in terms of the market, it's still an important market for us. And our capability to go source logistically advantaged barrels into those markets is something that we're going to continue to look for and drive. I don't think we're going to give guidance on the pricing structure forward-looking because there's a lot of elements at play there, but we do see this as a strong opportunity for us, not only in our current footprint, but also to continue to go grow the Sinclair brand from a branded perspective in the Southwest.

Jason, I'll just remind you that there was a Gallup refinery up there pre-COVID that has shut down since And this pipeline is really going to be just replacing some of the barrels that were already there pre-COVID. We think the tariff structure is pretty high for that area, and so we still think, regardless, we're going to have a competitive advantage to source barrels into that region.

Great. Thanks for the answers.

There are no further questions at this time, so I'd like to hand back to Tim for closing comments.

Well, thank you, Gavin. I mentioned a lot of highlights in my opening remarks and I want to give a shout out to all of our employees for delivering these outstanding results in 2023. These achievements are a testament to the competitive advantages of our new business portfolio and also the hard work and dedication of our employees to execute our strategies and deliver on these results. Our priorities remain the same for 2024. to improve our reliability, to integrate and optimize our new portfolio of assets, and to return excess cash to our shareholders. Thank you for joining our call. Have a great day.

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.